Jim Thome (2009 edition)

[Aegis]

I'm just curious about the board member's feelings about Thome and the Hall. This isn't exactly meant to stump for him, but I like him and portray him probably through rose-tinted glasses.

Has 1625 H in 14 seasons. Has 3259 TB, earning 314 per 162 G. Has 423 HR. Has hit at least 30 HR in 9 seasons, including the last 8. Has hit at least 40 HR in 5 seasons, including the last 4. Has hit at least 50 HR once, in '02. The last three years he's hit 52, 47, and 42 HR. If he hits 5 fewer HR a year for the next five years, he'll wind up with 558, which would be ninth all-time, not considering what Griffey, Bagwell, McGriff, Thomas, and JuanGon (the active players in front of him) will do. His FP is about on par for course and his RF is above league average. He hits .284/.410/.569 with .979 OPS and 151 OPS+. Ink is 13/91. He turns 34 in August.

[RuthMayBond]

1) He's only a few OPS+ points behind Greenberg with about a thousand more plate apps
2) He's also a few OPS+ points behind (and will probably end up further behind) DAllen, with fewer PA

[mac195]

Thome will probably hit 550-600 HRs. I don't know how they could keep him out if he does that.

[Brad Harris]

Thome already has my vote. He'll probably convince the writers in the next 3-4 years. Too much there to overlook.

[julusnc]

In time Jim Thome will be recognized as one of the best sluggers of his era and a sure fire Hall of Famer with five more solid years under his belt.

I dont feel he has ever taken steriods.

How do the rest of you feel?

[Aegis]

Concerning steroids? I honestly don't think he's taken them. He's a big guy now, but he wasn't exactly a stick when he first came into the league.

Note: Thome's the youngest on the top 10 active HR leaders list, currently sitting ninth. Odds are he won't catch Bonds or Sosa. He may catch Palmeiro if Raffy hangs them up soon, and by soon I mean now. If Griffey can spackle his hamstring together, Thome probably won't pass him, but Griffey's health is nothing if not inconsistent. McGriff will be passed. Bagwell could easily be passed; depends on when he retires. Thomas and Gonzalez will probably be passed if for no other reason than they're older and only 10-15 HR up on him.

Out of those immediately behind him, Sheffield can keep things close but I don't think he'll overtake him. Galaragga won't pass him. Manny very easily could, and A-Rod almost certainly will. No one else in the top 20 has much of a shot.

[Senor Octobre]

i once read an article (i think it was sports illustrated) where it mentioned thome's lifelong aversion to weight training, therefore if he's telling the truth, roids wouldn't be that much good to him. I think he's naturally a big guy anyways, about 6-4 240. He's not overly huge or bulging with veins or anything. I think he was brought up on a farm or something...i know fellas like that... heck, my own brother is that big.

[Aegis]

Yeah, this isn't like Bonds and Sosa, where you can look at how they were as young'uns and see that they simply have different body types now. Thome is just big.

[zzazazz]

I saw Thome play when he was with the Charlotte Knights and he towered above all the other players there.

[The Commissioner]

Thome would already get my vote if he retird today, but within a couple of years he should be an obvious Hall of Famer to everyone.

[Edgartohof]

As of right now, I would have to say no. I just do not think of him as that kind of player. He has not been as dominant as other players of this time, some of whom I would also say no to.

Of course, he is only 33, and he should have plenty of time to add to his already very nice career.

pro's:

9 straight years of 30+ HR's
2 - .300/.400/.500 seasons
great at taking walks - good OBP
consistent
could easily reach 500+ HR's

con's:
strikes out A LOT
no speed on the basepaths
not very dominant

[W_Marone]

Do you guys think Jim Thome will make the hall, I guess I should rephrase, have an excellent chance at getting into Cooperstown. I mean he will have well over 500 homeruns, I'm just not sure if the strikeouts he has will hinder his chances, what are your guys thoughts, I mean he is what 30 something correct? Not too early to ask is it?

[Red Sox 521]

Depends on potential steroid beliefs by voters, and if they believe that he did use them whether McGwire and Sosa get in. If they get in however, I think he'll be a lock.

[digglahhh]

Thome's career is a lot better than people give him credit for. I was mulling over his candidacy a few months ago and was taken a back at how productive he had actually been throughout his career. This season's resurgence is a real good sign for him. The high K numbers, to me, are somewhat mitigated by his high BB totals. He is a real good OBP guy, a top level power guy and a .280 hitter.

Assuming he is clean and Mac was not. He seems like a left-handed and better version of McGwire.

A number of people think that even a clean Mac was Hall worthy, those people would HAVE TO support Thome. He turns 36 this summer, with two more productive, not even necessarily vintage, years, he'll finish with a pretty nice case.

[W_Marone]

yeah thats the only con I can really lay on Thome, the high K total.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Thome will get into the HOF if he makes it to 500 HRs. If he doesn't, they'll be a big debate.

[Whitesoxnut]

Frankly it disturbs me that defensive play is so unappreciated by HOF voters. Dont get me wrong, I think Thome should get in, but there have been great defensive players who just havnt gotten the respect. Ron Santo for one.

[csh19792001]

Not my style of player at all, but one hell of a power hitter, a much better baserunner in his prime than his stat sheet gives him credit for and a world class human being, to boot. It's great to see him back doing what he's paid to do this year.

Thome, like Abreu and Giambi, makes the pitcher throw a ton of pitches. In the long run, I think there's added value there (although it probably shows up partially in the performance of the guys who bat after guys like this). However, unlike the other two, Thome also strikes out a ridiculous amount (over 1 per game!!). That's a detractor, IMO. To me, the strikeouts are only mitigated if they're roughly commensurate with the walks (which is usally the case with truly great hitters). The best walk more than they strike out.

In the bottom of the ninth with the game tied and needing a hit to win, do you want a guy who strikes out about 1/3rd of his at bats?

As Windy City Fan so incisively noted awhile back here.

Originally Posted by Windy City Fan

Committed Opinions:
Sabermetrics forgets you only need to win by one run.

Yes, Thome was a lousy third baseman, but isn't it to his credit that he was even able to play 300 games there, period? Can we see Jason Giambi or Manny Ramirez playing third base with any degree of deftness or alacrity? I think not. Versatility matters to me- I consider skills and adaptability, not just numbers in, numbers out.

That said, I'm not for debasing the HOF standards anymore than they already have been, and I see him as basically borderline at the moment. He's played in the best homerun era in history, so his totals have to be adjusted accordingly. He's also only played 1790 games. He needs at least three very good to great years to become a lock, IMO.

(And no, given the way homeruns fly today, I don't think 500 should be an automatic ticket to Cooperstown anymore).

[baseballPAP]

Not to quibble too much csh, but Giambi DID come up as a 3Bman, just like Thome. Manny wasn't always terrible in the OF, he just stopped trying to get any better...Manny being Manny

[jalbright]

The Bill James Handbook for 2006 has him at 279 WS, but that's very near HOF territory. His top three seasons and his best five consecutive would also place him on the very edge of HOF territory among first basemen. His HOF standards are good enough already, and will only likely improve. His performance in black ink could use a boost, but that's not a huge issue in my book. His performance in gray ink (252nd among position players) is a weakness which he either needs to improve directly or compensate for in another category. He's 196th in MVP award shares, which isn't too great, nor is being only a four time all-star. He needs two or three good years IMO to present a solid case (if he has two, he probably needs a couple of solid seasons as well), and right now it looks like 2006 will give him one of those. I think he's a classy guy and I'm rooting for him. His injury history is worrisome, though.

Jim Albright

[KCGHOST]

If he can get to 500 HR's (he has 450) he should have no problem getting in.

[csh19792001]

Originally Posted by baseballPAP

Not to quibble too much csh, but Giambi DID come up as a 3Bman, just like Thome.

Yeah, but Thome played almost 500 games at third base, and it was the only position he played his first 6 seasons in the big leagues. Giambi was moved all around, third was never his primary position, and he only played 70 games there total. He was probably often used there more out of necessity than anything else.

That's why I see the distinction in their skills/adaptability.

[d-backsfan01]

Jim Thome will make the hall if he hits 500 or more homers

[flash143817]

I'm really pulling for Thome to get in because he is my favorite active player. I don't think it is being a homer though to say he has a solid case. His 149 OPS+ for his career is outstanding, even for a 1B.


And regarding his high strikeout total, an out is an out. And if I needed a guy to bat in the bottom of the 9th in a key situation, I'd certainly have absolutely no trouble taking the guy who gets on base better than all but 41 guys throughout the history of the game and has the 4th best AB/HR ratio of all time. Sure he might strike out, but he stands a better shot than anybody on the team of either winning the game or extending it by getting aboard via BB.

I just took a quick glance at last year's top 10 leaderboard for toughest to strike out and there are only 2 guys on it out of 20 from either league that I'd possibly rather have up in that situation than Thome, Vlad Guerrero or Ichiro, and I'd still very likely take Thome over Ichiro there.

And it's not like we are talking about Rob Deer or Dave Kingman here. Thome still has a solid .280 career BA so he isn't a HR or nothing guy.

[Sockeye]

He's 35 and in his 16th season. I would like to get some thoughts on his career thus far and if possible some insight on where you think his career totals will end up? I know this calls for a lot of speculation. So I'll be the first to throw some projections out there.

I think he could very well end up with

Games 2433
At-Bats 8286
Runs 1611
Hits 2331
Doubles 453
Triples 33
Home Runs 601
RBI's 1670
Stolen Bases 25
Walks 1759
AVG .281
OBP .408
SLG .562