Luis Gonzalez-How Far From Hall?

[The Commissioner]

A few years ago, I would have laughed at this even being pondered. I mean after all, he may suddenly be having a few excellent seasons, but surely he is too old to start racking up the numbers which could make him a serious contender for Cooperstown. However, half way into this season I am starting to take another look at his career stats and depending on how long he plays this may not be such a far-fetched theory after all. As I write this Gonzalez's current ML totals are 264 HR, 1013 runs scored, 1069 RBI, and a career .287 BA. The thing going against him is mainly time. He will turn 36 in September. He doesn't appear to be showing any signs of slowing down yet, though. How much longer will he have to play and what kind of totals will he have to put up before he can be considered as a serious candidate? Would 350 HR, 1300 RBI and a .290 average be enough to make him a viable candidate? He may have his fifth straight 100 RBI season this year. Would perhaps 7 in a row have him in consideration? Would he require another monster season like he had in 2001 or just a few more really really good years? Or perhaps is there just no way he will ever make it?

[Captain Cold Nose]

One of the HOF's most egregious mistakes was inducting way too many players from the offensively explosive era of the 20's and 30's. That's a big reason why I'm not so quick to embrace everybody from the last few years who have put up the big numbers.

Like that era, there are people who stand out, like Bonds, who would have been great in any time period. Gonzalez has been a fine player and I believe the trade that sent him from Detroit for Karim Garcia will go down as one of the worst of the last quarter of the 20th century. But HOF worthy?

With the numbers the Commish asks about, he would have a .ba of about 10 points higher, but with almost 30 HR less and nearly 400 less RBI than Tony Perez, who many of the informed members of the Fever howl about in derision in regards to his HOF election. Going back to my initial point, while Gonzalez's numbers are good, they don't match up to Sosa, Walker, Piazza, Helton, Bagwell, etc. I say that without having full researched all the numbers, of course, but I'll stand behind my assumption unless proven wrong.

He seems like a genuinely nice guy. But under the weight of the era and measured against his contemporaries, I say he falls short.

[Biggtone23]

He'll get on the ballot but wont get the 5 or 6 votes needed to gain the 5% to stay on for more than one year.

[Cougar]

Too late a start. Gonzalez needs to burnish his resume much more than players over 35 typically do when they're not named Bonds or Aaron.

He needs to crack 1500 RBI to really have any shot at all, and I just think that's pretty unlikely. Mixing in an MVP or two might help, but that's unlikely too.

Good player, but he looks like he'll finish in the group with Rocky Colavito, George Foster, etc. -- guys who were very good and occasionally great, but not great for long enough or good enough overall.

Cold Nose makes a good point about eras. We're going to need to cast a cold eye on some of the guys who began compiling big offensive numbers starting in 1995 or so; they'd best be overwhelming numbers over a long period, because borderline HOF numbers should engender suspicion from this era.

As to whether he'll drop off in the first ballot -- I think it depends on how long Gonzo staves off decline. If he has 3-4 more big years, he could win some support, but I'm skeptical of his ever getting 75% from this BBWAA. If he falls off quickly, he likely will not get 5%.

[Zito75]

Winning the world series with a single up the middle in game 7 was very cool, but he'll never be in the hall. He still needs to have like 10 more SOLID years. Since he's so freakin' injury prone, that'll never happen.

[J W]

I agree with everybody. He's a rare player who's having his best years at the end of his career, but it'll still just be a "spiked" one like so many.

If you want to look at a 50 HR guy in the NL West (not named Bonds), I'd suggest Shawn Green.

[The Commissioner]

Green doesn't have Gonzalez's runs scored or RBI totals yet, but he is over 5 years younger. Hopefully, the Dodgers can acquire someone between now and the time that he reaches his 40th birthday to hit behind him in the lineup.

[Sandman]

Honestly, he doesn't have much of a chance . Where does he stand, hits wise?

[The Commissioner]

Here are Green's present stats:
Hits-1305
Runs-766
RBI-752
HR-242
2B-293
BA-.283
SL%-.515
SB-130

He's also 30 years old. A lot is going to depend on how long he winds up playing, how healthy he stays, and if he can continue to produce. If he winds up with 2000 hits and 400 HR, I could see him going in.

[Sandman]

Originally posted by The Commissioner
He's also 30 years old.

He'll be 36 in september.

[yellowdog]

I think the Commissioner was talking about Shawn Green being 30.

[The Commissioner]

Yes, thank you yellowdog. I just realized that I misinterpreted Sandman's question. I thought it was in reference to Green, but can see now he was referring to Gonzalez. Anyway, sorry about the confusion. Here are Gonzalez'z stats:

Hits-1870
Runs-1015
RBI-1070
HR-264
BA-.287
SL%-.488
SB-114

He will be 36 in September.

[PeteF3]

Now I agree that Gonzalez isn't going anywhere near the Hall of Fame unless he goes on a 10-year tear and is still knocking the hell out of the ball in his 40's, but "injury prone"? Last year's shoulder separation was the first significant injury Gonzalez ever suffered. I think he had one stint on the DL in '96, but he's been an extremely durable player throughout his career.

[The Commissioner]

Excellent point. Before he hurt his ribs last year he was the active leader in consecutive games played with 446.

[The Commissioner]

He may still not be close to a Hall of Famer in a lot of people's minds, but here are his current career stats:


Hits-1959
Runs-1060
RBI-1124
HR-275
BA-.288
SL%-.489
SB-115

He also just eneterd the career top 100 list for doubles and extra base hits as well as recording his fifth consecutive season with 100+ RBI. I'm not saying any of that makes him a Hall of Famer, but he doesn't seem to be slowing down either. If he can maintain his present level or even a slightly dimished one for tow or three more years, he might have a pretty good case to be made in his favor.

[J W]

...if he can still produce at a high level by age 42, it may persuade me a bit. Throughout baseball history, there haven't been too many 40-something, all-star caliber players (some of them may have made the team on reputation). That's a special thing to do at such an age.

He's still doing very, very well. He's still driving in 100 runs and scoring 90 on an offense that isn't near the best in the majors... he's hitting .300 and has an OPS over .900... and his numbers have slipped only a tad from his incredible stretch, '99-'01. If his decline continues at this rate, he could very well continue to be an All-Star several years down the road.

Bear in mind that he has the body frame, I think, of a player who could do well in his 40's. He strikes me as tough and wiry, and while he has bulked up a bit, I would certainly not call him a brute of a ballplayer. It looks like he still has a bit of a spring in his step.

But with so many players, they do fine until one year, without warning, they fall of the face of the earth. Ultimately, in the case of Gonzalez, what he's done so far still isn't nearly enough, and I won't have a legitimate opinion of his candidacy until his career is over.

The other player I mentioned, Shawn Green, had a terrible year by his standards. Could he be on the decline already? Or is it because he had no help?

[The Commissioner]

Originally posted by J W
The other player I mentioned, Shawn Green, had a terrible year by his standards. Could he be on the decline already? Or is it because he had no help?

It was because he played the entire season with a torn labrum.
Even though the Dodgers were aware of the problem, they kept quiet about it for most of the season until it leaked out to the press in the last few weeks. Green himself never publily complained once about it. Frankly, I think Green's season, considering the circumstances, was incredible!

As for whether he may be on the decline, that remains to be seen. He underwent surgery on his shoulder immediately after the season. Whether he will ever be able to regain full use of his shoulder and of his power remains to be seen. Even, despite modern medical advances, that's still a tough injury to ever fully recover from. It's only exacerbated by the fact that he added a full season's worth of wear and tear to it.

[wrgptfan]

Originally posted by The Commissioner
He may still not be close to a Hall of Famer in a lot of people's minds, but here are his current career stats:


Hits-1959
Runs-1060
RBI-1124
HR-275
BA-.288
SL%-.489
SB-115

He also just eneterd the career top 100 list for doubles and extra base hits as well as recording his fifth consecutive season with 100+ RBI. I'm not saying any of that makes him a Hall of Famer, but he doesn't seem to be slowing down either. If he can maintain his present level or even a slightly dimished one for tow or three more years, he might have a pretty good case to be made in his favor.

Those stats and $7.60 will get him into the HoF.

[The Commissioner]

Laugh now, but in a couple more seasosn he could rank pretty high on quite a few career leader boards.

[tearforamariner]

Originally posted by wrgptfan
Those stats and $7.60 will get him into the HoF.

Hits-1588
Runs-877
RBI-563
HR-38
BA-.273
SL%-.355
SB-149

Now why on earth was I just thinking of those numbers?

[Captain Cold Nose]

Originally posted by wrgptfan
Those stats and $7.60 will get him into the HoF.

$7.60? Is that the super-discount rate?

[Brad Harris]

Luis Gonzalez, through 2003 (his "age 35 season"), accumulated a 124 park-adjusted OPS+ (in 7,651 plate appearances).

So...at this point in his career, Gonzo's OPS has been 24% higher than league average, even after adjusting for his home parks. Not too shabby, eh? That's what I thought until I dug up a list of other players who, through the same age, had a similar (or better) park-adjusted production.

Gonzo rates 127th all-time for career Production+ through age 35. Looking at the list of players with similar playing time and production, it's easy to see why Gonzo's case rests primarily on his maintaining or improving his OPS+ between now and his retirement.

And it's a very rare thing, indeed, for a player to do that.

To illustrate how tenuous his chances are, as of right now, here is a list of every non-Hall of Famer with a better OPS+ through the same age. (Non-eligibles like Bonds, McGwire, etc. not listed here.)

Dick Allen leads this group with an amazing 156 OPS+ through age 35! Between him and Gonzo are the following:

Harry Stovey
Frank Howard
Norm Cash
Jack Clark
Reggie Smith
Will Clark
George Gore
Ken Singleton
Boog Powell
Fred Lynn
Tony Oliva
Keith Hernandez
Bobby Veach
Jim Rice
Bob Watson
Bobby Bonds
Joe Torre
Dave Parker
George Foster
Jimmy Wynn
Dwight Evans
Bobby Grich
Jimmy Ryan
Roy Sievers
Cecil Cooper
Bob Elliot
Rick Monday
Bobby Murcer
Rusty Staub
Roy Thomas
Al Oliver
Ron Cey
Andre Dawson
Ted Kluszewski

Now...obviously there are more players who are in Gonzo's situation who went on to be elected than those who did not, but this is merely to point out that election is no certainty for someone in his position. Especially considering he plays a corner outfield position, where OPS+ is traditionally higher than most other positions.

Gonzo has a lot of work ahead of him.

[Eddie Collins]

If Dawson does not get it, Gonzo shouldn't either.

[wrgptfan]

Originally posted by Captain Cold Nose
$7.60? Is that the super-discount rate?

I just checked out what was on the HoF web site:

http://baseballhalloffame.org/visitor_info/hours.htm

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[The Commissioner]

Chancellor, just how heavily do you feel that the OPS+ is going to weigh on the minds of the voters in the years following his retirement?