What about Ichiro???

[bobfeller]

What would Ichiro have to do to make the Hall???

I noticed that nobody seems to include him in their lists of players who might get there.

Personally, I think that he'll get there. He started here when he was like 26 or 28 or whatever, so his major league numbers will never be what they could have been. He'll never get 3000 hits, etc. But if he retires even with 1600-1800 hits, do you think baseball writers will overlook his low major league numbers and add in his success in Japan to justify him as Hall worthy??? I think they will... if for no other reason than he was the first Japanese position player here. He broke ground. So I think he'll be in some day... assuming of course he maintains a Tony Gwynn like average.


What do you think??? Am I crazy? Or is it just too soon?

[Peggin_Maniac]

If he can maintain or come close to what he has done for the next
TEN years, HELL ya he'll be in...Say he plays til he is 40yrs old. If maintain 200 hits a year for 12 yrs its 2400 hits (granted he'll probably not maintain that). But he will get over 2,000 hits easy.

His batting avg. will be very high!!!
BEST ARM IN THE LEAGUE.
One of the best defensive outfielders in the game...
Great speed...

His only pitch Ichiro can't handle very well is the pictch inside...But
if you watch his games (like I do, night in and night out). He starting to get to that pitch.. So when he mastered that pitch (and he will) where to you pitch to this guy?????

[J W]

Hey, maintain his pace, win six more batting titles, be the leading vote getter at the All-Star game and aim for 2500 hits, and he's in.

It's a looong way from that, though; we'll just have to see.

[Etheridge2]

He is a long ways from being there and he can not afford to slip in production at all because he will need a very solid consistant career because as you said due to his late start he won't be able to get any of the milestones

[Steffo]

Yes, but if he keeps up his current productioon he will almost have 2,500 hits despite so little atbats. After he gets there, he's a lock.

[A Satch In Time Whiffs Nine]

If maintain 200 hits a year for 12 yrs its 2400 hits (granted he'll probably not maintain that).

I highly doubt he'll maintain 200 hits for 12 straight years. Wade Boggs had seven straight 200-hit seasons during the early part of his career and if I'm not mistaken, this either tied a record or was a season off from tying it.

Twelve seasons is asking a lot.

[bobfeller]

I highly doubt he'll maintain 200 hits for 12 straight years. Wade Boggs had seven straight 200-hit seasons during the early part of his career and if I'm not mistaken, this either tied a record or was a season off from tying it.

I agree with that. But if he averages, say, 160-175 over the next eight-ten years (reachable if you think he'll get a couple 220-230 hit seasons in there), do you think he's a Hall of Famer at between 1700-2000 hits, considering his impact and success as the first Japanese position player in the United States?

I think so, especially because there will likely be many more Japanese players to follow.... and each will be hailed as the "next Ichiro."

[razors]

Originally posted by bobfeller:
"But if he averages, say, 160-175 over the next eight-ten years (reachable if you think he'll get a couple 220-230 hit seasons in there), do you think he's a Hall of Famer at between 1700-2000 hits...?"


i hope so bobfeller - here's a look at some of his pacific league numbers:


Year Team G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI Avg BB SO SB
1994 OBW 130 546 111 210 41 5 13 54 .385 51 53 29
1995 OBW 130 524 104 179 23 4 25 80 .342 68 52 49
1996 OBW 130 542 104 193 24 4 16 84 .356 56 57 35
1997 OBW 135 536 94 185 31 4 17 91 .345 62 36 39
1998 OBW 135 506 79 181 36 3 13 71 .358 43 35 11
1999 OBW 103 411 80 141 27 2 21 68 .343 45 46 12
2000 OBW 105 395 73 153 22 1 12 73 .387 54 36 21


accepting that the pacific league is a 'minor league' his 1st 7 full years look fairly impressive to me...winning the batting title each of these seven years...(he did have a 159 at bats combined in 92/93 - before he was 21 - but 1994 was his first full year)

i've got to believe that some consideration will be given to these outstanding performances - especially in light of how well he's continued to perform in the states...

whilst for completely different reasons consideration has been given to HOFers that could not play in the 'majors' due to narrow-mindedness, greatness is should be recognized no matter where it is found and the HOF is not exclusively for those that played their entire career in the 'majors - e.g. how many hits did josh gibson have?

i think he's got to keep that level of performance up there but there is NO reason to expect him not to... he averged 177hits a season (averaging 124 games a season) for seasons - that's massive - i.e. an average of 231 hits over a 162 game season, and we know he can do that...

so obviously this guy was not just a 'big fish in a little pond' or a 'one-year-wonder' - he's the real deal HOF material and that's without discussing his defensive abilities...



razors

[razors]

Originally posted by bobfeller:
He'll never get 3000 hits, etc. But if he retires even with 1600-1800 hits, do you think baseball writers will overlook his low major league numbers and add in his success in Japan to justify him as Hall worthy???"



i hope so bobfeller - here's a look at some of his pacific league numbers:


Year Team G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI Avg BB SO SB
1994 OBW 130 546 111 210 41 5 13 54 .385 51 53 29
1995 OBW 130 524 104 179 23 4 25 80 .342 68 52 49
1996 OBW 130 542 104 193 24 4 16 84 .356 56 57 35
1997 OBW 135 536 94 185 31 4 17 91 .345 62 36 39
1998 OBW 135 506 79 181 36 3 13 71 .358 43 35 11
1999 OBW 103 411 80 141 27 2 21 68 .343 45 46 12
2000 OBW 105 395 73 153 22 1 12 73 .387 54 36 21


accepting that the pacific league is a 'minor league' his 1st 7 full years look fairly impressive to me...winning the batting title each of these seven years...(he did have a 159 at bats combined in 92/93 - before he was 21 - but 1994 was his first full year)

i've got to believe that some consideration will be given to these outstanding performances - especially in light of how well he's continued to perform in the states...

whilst for completely different reasons consideration has been given to HOFers that could not play in the 'majors' due to narrow-mindedness, greatness is should be recognized no matter where it is found and the HOF is not exclusively for those that played their entire career in the 'majors - e.g. how many hits did josh gibson have?

i think he's got to keep that level of performance up there but there is NO reason to expect him not to... he averged 177hits a season (averaging 124 games a season) for 7 seasons - that's massive - i.e. an average of 231 hits over a 162 game season, and we know he can do that...

so obviously this guy was not just a 'big fish in a little pond' or a 'one-year-wonder' - he's the real deal HOF material and that's without discussing his defensive abilities and other qualities...



razors

[bobfeller]

whilst for completely different reasons consideration has been given to HOFers that could not play in the 'majors' due to narrow-mindedness, greatness is should be recognized no matter where it is found and the HOF is not exclusively for those that played their entire career in the 'majors - e.g. how many hits did josh gibson have?

Yeah, that's what im thinking. I don't think he necessarily has to maintain super numbers. I think 8-10 solid ml years and he's in first ballot (160-170 hits a year, .300 avg.).... just because of who he is, what he means to baseball, and because of those Japan years.

I don't know where you dug up those stats, razors, but good info. Its nice to see someone from Chicago agrees with me on something. You all were hating me over my Sammy Sosa takes.

Nope, never ever will he reach HOF numbers.
Similar numbers were put up by Kirby Puckett, early in their careers, but Ichiro will never make HOF status.

[bobfeller]

Similar numbers were put up by Kirby Puckett, early in their careers, but Ichiro will never make HOF status.

Why not? That's a conclusion. What's you argument? You gotta back that up. With a guy like Ichiro, you have to look beyond his major league numbers and look to what he means to the game and his success in Japan. You can't just rely on numbers.

The Hall of Fame is not based just on major league numbers. Ichiro is such a phenomenon and such an important person (ultimately) in the history of the game, that he'll be in as long as he doesnt just fall apart.

And Puckett's a Hall of Famer anyway, so you can't say he has similar numbers to a Hall of Famer, then say he's out.

[brewcrew82]

I too have oftened wondered this very question...

I think with abot 2000 hits (on top oh his RoY, MVP (he may still win more), gold gloves, all star selectione etc) Ichiro should be considered seriously for the hall...On top of his ML credentials, he had a stellar career in Japan (the best player over there), he opened the door for other Japanese position players and showed the world that a Japanese player can succeed in the US (and that quality of Japanese baseball was better than minor league calibre).

I hope this makes sanse...its been a LONG day!

[trosmok]

Ichiro is a phenomenal player, and has made a big splash on this side of the Pacific rim. Not since Fred Lynn in '75 has a player garnered both ROY and MVP honors in their first big league season. He doesn't need to pile up milestone numbers that some hall watchers believe to be essential to election. It is far from certain he couldn't possibly fizzle, but if he maintains his stellar performance on the diamond, he will surely be enshrined in Cooperstown. Players don't need to get stats and numbers that end in zero to deserve HOF status, but a few WS and more batting crowns, MVP etc. always look good on the resume.

[A Satch In Time Whiffs Nine]

1994 OBW 130 546 111 210 41 5 13 54 .385 51 53 29

Wow. Am I reading that right? 210 hits in just 130 games? That's pretty damn impressive!

[CardFanNV]

Originally posted by A Satch In Time Whiffs Nine
Wow. Am I reading that right? 210 hits in just 130 games? That's pretty damn impressive!

So is .385. Only three Americans (Carew, Brett, Gwynn) have hit higher since 1941.

[CardFanNV]

Originally posted by CardFanNV
So is .385. Only three Americans (Carew, Brett, Gwynn) have hit higher since 1941.

OOPS!

Make that 4 - some old geezer named Williams hit .388 in 1957 - at the age of 38.

Originally posted by bobfeller
Why not? That's a conclusion. What's you argument? You gotta back that up. With a guy like Ichiro, you have to look beyond his major league numbers and look to what he means to the game and his success in Japan. You can't just rely on numbers.

The Hall of Fame is not based just on major league numbers. Ichiro is such a phenomenon and such an important person (ultimately) in the history of the game, that he'll be in as long as he doesnt just fall apart.

And Puckett's a Hall of Famer anyway, so you can't say he has similar numbers to a Hall of Famer, then say he's out.

Numbers that pertained to Puckett's when Kirby was, what, 23 or 24?
Ichiro was successful in Japan and came here and broke through at the age of, what, 27 or 28?

The Hall of Fame will base his numbers on what he did HERE, not upon what he did in Japan.

Sadly enough (?), that's probably why Sadaharu Oh, the most prolific home run hitter that baseball has ever seen isn't in the Hall.

He didn't put those great numbers here in the U.S.

I'm of the opinion that the Hall should have a separate category, as they did of the great "Negro Leaguers" to honor those in Japan.

Just my humble opionion, though.

LOVE you statue outside of the Jake, by the way, Feller.

[Cougar]

Originally posted by J W
Hey, maintain his pace, win six more batting titles, be the leading vote getter at the All-Star game and aim for 2500 hits, and he's in.

It's a looong way from that, though; we'll just have to see.

Exactly. Way too soon to say.

[bobfeller]

Exactly. Way too soon to say.

Well, of course it's too soon. That's the point here, we're speculating.

Mulliganfan, your points are good but I respectfully disagree. I think when the time comes they will take his Japanese numbers into account, right or wrong. The difference between Ichiro and Oh is that Oh never played in America, and it is still the "National" Baseball Hall of Fame, so therefore Oh can't even qualify for consideration. But I think that since Ichiro at least qualifies for consideration, his Japanese success will be looked at, at least in passing in determining whether he truly was one of the greatest baseball players ever to play the game in America. After all, shouldn't that be the relevant question? Thta's not to say they shouldn't look at his American numbers; I just think his stellar Japanese numbers should be used to enhance and support his American numbers as well. If he had come here and flopped, then he should not be considered for enshrinement no matter how great hus numbers were in Asia.

The same thing applies with the Negro Leaguers. The Baseball Hall of Fame is not a Major League Hall of Fame. And each of those men excelled at the highest level they could play at in America. So that's the difference between them and Oh.

[feartheterp03]

I think Ichiro has a very good chance of making it into the Hall becuase of his great speed allowing him to get hits that a normal player couldnt get. For example, in the series with the Atlanta Braves, Ichiro hit a chopper up the middle fielded cleanly by Rafael Furcal, who IMO has one of the best arms in the game for an infielder, guns it to first but not in time. Most players would be out by 10 feet. I think he will get in because of his ability to make something of nothing.

[Zito75]

I think he started his MLB career a little late. He's already 30. He'll have to win some serious batting titles before he can get in.

[razors]

Originally posted by bobfeller:
"Its nice to see someone from Chicago agrees with me on something. You all were hating me over my Sammy Sosa takes."


now, now bobfeller, there are plenty of chicagoans that can't stand sosa (or the flubs of course) - and i've been having a right royal time ribbing his fans...i've never thought the guy was genuine...


cheers,



razors.

[Brad Harris]

Ichiro Suzuki has played 13 professional seasons. Four with Seattle in the American League and 9 with Orix of the Japanese Pacific League. Ichiro has appeared in 4 all-star games (in 4 seasons), became only the second player ever to win both the Rookie of the Year Award and the MVP Award in the same season, won 3 gold gloves, won a batting title, led the league in hits and stolen bases and looks poised to lead the league in batting average and hits again and possibly set the single season hit record (which has stood for 84 years.)

With a month left in the season, Ichiro will certainly be adding to his 10 Black Ink, 43 Gray Ink, 24.0 Hall of Fame Standards and 81.0 Hall of Fame Monitor scores. In addition to leading the league in BA and hits, Ichiro is currently 2nd in on-base percentage and steals. He will certainly contend for the AL MVP Award this year and stands a good chance of winning it were he to collect another 46+ hits.

ESPN keeps tracking a statistic that, I believe, indicates Ichiro will almost certainly have the most hits by any player in a four-year span in at least 50 years? Using Lee Sinin's Sabermetric Baseball Encyclopedia, I can see that right now Ichiro has more hits from his Age27 through Age30 seasons than any player in major leauge history! His 874 (and counting) has surpassed former leader Jesse Burkett and the rest of the top ten on that list (Boggs, Al Simmons, Gehrig, Musial, Rose, Carew, Puckett, Earle Combs, Wee Willie Keeler).

So Ichiro's four-year run (so far) isn't just impressive against the four-year runs of men who were 25 or 26 by the time they'd played 4 years in MLB, but it's impressive against other seasons by men at the same ages too!

Through the end of August this season, Ichiro is averaging the following over every 162 games played:

sports a .337/.382/.446 lifetime BA/OBP/SLG
BA - .337
OBP - .382
SLG - .446
R - 116
SB - 41
H - 235

Here's how that changes if you add in his JPL stats:
BA - .347
OBP - .400
SLG - .490
R - 111
SB - 36
H - 220

I'm not silly enough to think that the level of play in Japan is as high as it is in the American League these days, but I wanted to point out that Suzuki was winning batting titles and MVPs in the Japanese League - he wasn't just another player over there - and in fact looks to have been able to handle major league pitching as early as age 20.

Suzuki has 4 200-hit seasons in the big leagues. Only 32 other people have done that in major league history. (Only 3 of whom have not yet been elected to the Hall of Fame.) Only 10 of those players have fashioned 4 or more 200-hit season consecutively.

If Suzuki follows a normal career path - which means another batting title or 200-hit season is certainly not out of the question - and plays until he's close to 40, do you think voters ought to give consideration to his JPL stats either in terms of the 10-year service time requirement or in terms of his career achievement?

[dgarza]

Although he is the strongest candidate for this question, I guess similar thought can go towards players who started in MLB and then went to Japan and maybe came back to MLB, and also to players who might have spent some time in Latin American countries.

If he plays until near 40, then the question is nearly moot, isn't it?