2008 NL MVP...so far

[STLCards2]

Originally Posted by Otis Nixon's Bodyguard

I can take a wild guess at why this thread has died down - there's really nothing to debate at this point. Pujols, and it shouldn't even be close.

Yet, why do I have a feeling it will be anyway?

With Albert now 4th or 5th in the league in HR's, his RBI total is the only overrated counting stat that voters could use against him. If he can stay close to Wright, he whould be fine.

The only other obstical is if the voters change their standars again and say a guy needs to be on a playoff team to win.

By the way, for those worried about Albert's "declining" power - with his 32nd homerun in his 460th AB, Albert's 2008 season HR/AB is now slightly better than his career average.

[STLCards2]

A lot of people seem to think that Delgado is deserving of MVP because of what he has done in the second half of the season for the Mets. Look at a comparison between Delgado and Pujols from June 27th on. I chose June 27th because it signified two things - Albert's return from the DL, and the day that Delgado has his 9 RBI game. I used XBH instead of slugging - it is easier to calucualte from the middle of the season.



---------XBH ---------- AVG.--------------RBI--------------OB%
Delgado --37------------.336---------------66--------------.425

Pujols ----39------------.370---------------53--------------.462

Albert has more XBhits, a much higher average, and a much better OB%. Delgado leads in RBIs, but I wonder how much he benefits from having Reyes and Wright in his batting order instead of say Schumacher and Stavinova/Lopez/Miles/ Mather, etc?

Therefore, Albert has had a superior second half than the guy many want to give it to because of his second half.

Now, throw in the first half...

---------XBH-----------AVG.---------------RBI--------------OB%
Delgado--11------------.229----------------34--------------.306

Pujols --31 ---------- .347 ----------------42 -------------.475

and Pujols blows Delgado away...and nothing is even close.

Thow in Albert's defense and running advantages, and the gap becomes almost laughable.

If you want to give it to a guy who is making the playoffs, at least give it to Wright or Braun - guys with far, far better numbers than Delgado, and Braun in particular had many game-winning games and huge nights down the stretch too. Delgado could hit a homeruns every other day the rest of the month, and he wouldn't sniff the value created by Utley's offensive and defensive combination.

Albert has been single handeldy keeping the team above water as Ludwick as come down to earth a tad (still pretty productive), while Ankiel has been hurt, and while the pitching staff has been in complete shambles. You want to talk about value? Put Pujols on the Mets this year and they probably have the best record in baseball. Put Delgado on the Cardinals, and they would have been out of playoff contention in May.

Come on folks. Who do you really think is more "valuable"?

[Otis Nixon's Bodyguard]

Originally Posted by STLCards2

A lot of people seem to think that Delgado is deserving of MVP because of what he has done in the second half of the season for the Mets.

Is Delgado really being pushed as a candidate? I haven't heard much buzz about him. Don't the voters like traditional stats? Delgado's batting average is currently lower than any MVP winner since the inception of the modern award in 1931. The only guy ever to win with an average below .270 was Roger Maris, who also broke a 34 year old record by hitting 61 homers. I don't see the MVP going to Delgado. If it goes to anyone besides Pujols, that will be a bad, bad joke.

[STLCards2]

Originally Posted by Otis Nixon's Bodyguard

Is Delgado really being pushed as a candidate? I haven't heard much buzz about him. Don't the voters like traditional stats? Delgado's batting average is currently lower than any MVP winner since the inception of the modern award in 1931. The only guy ever to win with an average below .270 was Roger Maris, who also broke a 34 year old record by hitting 61 homers. I don't see the MVP going to Delgado. If it goes to anyone besides Pujols, that will be a bad, bad joke.

Not only has his name been thrown around here, on ESPN columnist mentioned him the other day. He has also shown up on the ESPN MVP running poll - before guys like Braun, H.Ramirez, Ludwick, or even better candidates on his own team like Wright and Reyes. I have also seen his name dropped multiple times on varius blogs from around the league.

[bjp3169]

Regarding potential MVP's on the Mets, I can see the Reyes argument, but picking Wright over Delgado no longer holds much weight.

The guy is not only hitting frequent mammoth homers off the scoreboard (at Shea), but he's coming through with clutch hit after clutch hit in the midst of a tight NL East race. He's basically carried a struggling Wright and the rest of the team on his shoulders for many weeks now.

In the last two games alone, he's gone 6 for 7 with 4 homeruns and 7 RBIs. He most definitely should be included on the MVP short list, and this is coming from a huge Wright fan.

[Zagi-CRO]

Right now I'll say:

1.Lance Berkman Astros
2.Albert Pujols Cardinals
3.Hanley Ramirez MArlins
4.David Wright Mets
5.Matt Holliday Rockies

[STLCards2]

Originally Posted by bjp3169

Regarding potential MVP's on the Mets, I can see the Reyes argument, but picking Wright over Delgado no longer holds much weight.

.

Except for the fact that Wright is statisticaly far superior than Delgado and plays much better defense at a much, much more important position.

Yes, Delgado has a bunch of big hits the second half of the season, but that doesnt change the fact that Wright has had a bunch more good games and "big" hits over the course of the season.

The games now do not count more than they do in April and May. The Mets are currently in first place. David Wright and his very good season are much more responsible for this than Delgado's good last 2 months. There is no "when the games start to count" or any of that balogna. They all count. When they counted for the first 4 months of the season, Wright and Reyes kept the team afloat while Delgdo almost DFA's himself out of the league. Wright helped the Mets win more games that Delgado...many more games than Delgado with his across the season quality offense and superior defense. How is a guy with 2 good months and mediocre defense from 1st base more valuable than that- much less better than two offensive/defensive freaks of firstbasemen who has kept mediocre teams (predicted to be way under .500) in playoff contention for a whole season?

[bob]

Originally Posted by Zagi-CRO

Right now I'll say:

1.Lance Berkman Astros
2.Albert Pujols Cardinals
3.Hanley Ramirez MArlins
4.David Wright Mets
5.Matt Holliday Rockies

Ive got Berkman down in 3rd behind pujols and H Ramirez now, other than his historic May he really hasn't been MVP calibre player.
His first and second half stats:

First or Second Half
Determined by All-Star Break

 I Split         G   GS  PA  AB  R   H  2B 3B HR RBI  BB IBB  SO HBP  SH  SF ROE GDP  SB CS   BA   OBP   SLG   OPS  BAbip sOPS+ tOPS+ Split
+-+------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+--+--+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+------------+
   1st Half      93  92 397 334  79 116 30  3 22  73  56  13  61   4   0   3   1   9  15  2  .347  .443  .653 1.096  .370   193   111 1st Half     
   2nd Half      50  48 204 170  30  51 15  1  6  27  30   1  35   3   0   1   0   3   1  1  .300  .412  .506  .918  .346   140    79 2nd Half

3 months ago Berkman was the clear leader, but he's been no-where near that level since mid-june.

[Captain Cold Nose]

Originally Posted by bob

Ive got Berkman down in 3rd behind pujols and H Ramirez now, other than his historic May he really hasn't been MVP calibre player.
His first and second half stats:

First or Second Half
Determined by All-Star Break

 I Split         G   GS  PA  AB  R   H  2B 3B HR RBI  BB IBB  SO HBP  SH  SF ROE GDP  SB CS   BA   OBP   SLG   OPS  BAbip sOPS+ tOPS+ Split
+-+------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+--+--+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+------------+
   1st Half      93  92 397 334  79 116 30  3 22  73  56  13  61   4   0   3   1   9  15  2  .347  .443  .653 1.096  .370   193   111 1st Half     
   2nd Half      50  48 204 170  30  51 15  1  6  27  30   1  35   3   0   1   0   3   1  1  .300  .412  .506  .918  .346   140    79 2nd Half

3 months ago Berkman was the clear leader, but he's been no-where near that level since mid-june.

Derrek Lee Syndrome.

[Walt Zink]

delgado was hitting in the mid .220's at the end of june. since then, he's hitting .314 with 21 home runs (only trailing miguel cabrera in that time).

if the season ended today, i'd honestly pick delgado. but we have 3+ weeks left, so that can change.

[zahavasdad]

Last I checked the Cards were in 3rd place and falling. How valuable is Pujos to the Cards if they cant win with him.

Unless someone has a truly amazing season like Dawson did, Only a player on a playoff team deserves the MVP.

Delgado is 3rd in NL in Home Runs and 3rd in RBI's, Ahead of Pujos in both categories

The only real candidates for NL MVP is Ryan Howard or Carlos Delgado and the winner of the NL east should get the MVP

[philkid3]

Originally Posted by bjp3169

Regarding potential MVP's on the Mets, I can see the Reyes argument, but picking Wright over Delgado no longer holds much weight.

It sure does! To begin with, Wright's a better offensive player by a good margin. Their slugging is pretty close, but Wright has Delgado beat by 30 points in on-base percentage. Wright's got Delgado beat 112 runs created to 95. He has played an entire season of good baseball, not a couple months.

Nevermind the fact that he plays a more valuable position AND plays very good defense at that position.

It's the Delgado over Wright argument that doesn't hold much weight.

The guy is not only hitting frequent mammoth homers off the scoreboard (at Shea), but he's coming through with clutch hit after clutch hit in the midst of a tight NL East race. He's basically carried a struggling Wright and the rest of the team on his shoulders for many weeks now.

I refuse to put that much weight on the anecdotal myth of clutch ability. Wright has produced more over the course of the season, plain and simple. He may be carrying the team right now, but he also held them back before then. Those games count, too.



This Delgado for MVP thing is the biggest crock I can ever remember in awards voting. It's pure insanity. He's definitely salvaged his season, but to be an MVP he shouldn't have had to salvage anything, he should have been playing well all season.

It's like people for some reason cannot just let things be and give the award to the most deserving candidate. They have to choose off-the-wall candidates to be interesting or something.

[philkid3]

FWIW, here are the WARP leaders just on the Mets:

1. David Wright 8.8
2. Jose Reyes 8.0
3. Carlos Beltran 7.8
4. Carlos Delgado 7.0
5. Johan Santana 6.8

I wouldn't vote for any of them, though. Wright and Reyes would probably make my ballot. A guy who's not even the most valuable on his own team shouldn't win the MVP.

[STLCards2]

Originally Posted by zahavasdad

Last I checked the Cards were in 3rd place and falling. How valuable is Pujos to the Cards if they cant win with him.

Unless someone has a truly amazing season like Dawson did, Only a player on a playoff team deserves the MVP.

Delgado is 3rd in NL in Home Runs and 3rd in RBI's, Ahead of Pujos in both categories

The only real candidates for NL MVP is Ryan Howard or Carlos Delgado and the winner of the NL east should get the MVP

So ALbert should be penalized because he is on a much inferior team than Delgado? how many more RBIs would he have if he had Reyes, Wright, Beltran, Church, etc. in front of him?

So here is who you want for MVP every year - the guy on a playoff team with the most dingers and RBI, regardless of every other facet of the game and regardless of how many of his RBIs came because of just being on a better team with moe men on base. That is a very narrow way of seeing it.

[bjp3169]

Are there anymore Mets fans i.e. people who have watched these guys every game of the season that can chime in here? To still pick Wright over Delgado means you just haven't been paying attention. And honestly, I can't blame a fan of another team picking Wright just based on stats, but since we're going there here's a real eye opener that in my mind seals the deal:

RISP:

________AB H HR RBI BB SO OBP SLG AVG
Wright:_ 173 42 4 71 25 31 .329 .382 .243
Delgado:152 42 11 72 28 29 .389 .533 .276

So what does this tell us? Well, Wright sees more RISP. Yet, despite having 21 more at bats in these situations, Delgado has the same amount of hits, seven more HRs, more RBI's and walks, fewer strikeouts, a .070 (!) higher OBP, a .151 (!!) higher slugging and a .033 better average. Delgado has three less RBI's on the season than Wright, despite having fewer RISP opportunities and 30 less at bats in the season.

And as far as defense is concerned, Wright will make the highlight reel more often than almost anybody, but will many times botch a routine play. I can't tell you how many times Delgado has bailed him out by coming WAY off the bag and tagging the runner himself. One thing people don't realize is that Delgado's defense has improved almost as much as his offense during his torrid streak.

And yes, how you perform in the final stretch when you have another team breathing down your neck DOES hold more weight than what you did in April, May and June.

Do you trust any of the people who watch the Mets play everyday? Go to the message board at the team's site and see who they think the MVP of the team should be.

[philkid3]

Originally Posted by bjp3169

To still pick Wright over Delgado means you just haven't been paying attention.

Or maybe that your anecdotal memory has misled you. That's entirely possible, as well.

And as far as defense is concerned, Wright will make the highlight reel more often than almost anybody, but will many times botch a routine play.

+7 plus/minus has him very close to the lead in the NL.

One thing people don't realize is that Delgado's defense has improved almost as much as his offense during his torrid streak.

Maybe, but it's still a -8 on the season.

And yes, how you perform in the final stretch when you have another team breathing down your neck DOES hold more weight than what you did in April, May and June.

Why? The games are still worth one win or one loss.

Do you trust any of the people who watch the Mets play everyday? Go to the message board at the team's site and see who they think the MVP of the team should be.

I don't trust much of anyone who just watches games and lets the stuff that sticks in their memory effect their opinion instead of doing an objective analysis.

[Berkman#17]

Originally Posted by zahavasdad

Last I checked the Cards were in 3rd place and falling. How valuable is Pujos to the Cards if they cant win with him.

Unless someone has a truly amazing season like Dawson did, Only a player on a playoff team deserves the MVP.

Delgado is 3rd in NL in Home Runs and 3rd in RBI's, Ahead of Pujos in both categories

The only real candidates for NL MVP is Ryan Howard or Carlos Delgado and the winner of the NL east should get the MVP

(Swallows pride and prepares to break Rule #8 of being a Cubs fan- Never defend the Cardinals)

Ok. This is wrong on so many levels. "Pujos" doesn't pitch. He hasn't blown over 30 saves. He can't force pitchers to throw the ball over the plate rather than walk him. Punishing him for the rest of his teams shortcomings doesn't make sense.

The best player should win the award. Not "only guys who are on playoff teams". Yes that is how it goes more often than not, but completely dismissing someone because they are from a 3rd place team is ridiculous.

"Pujos" is ahead of Delgado in pretty much every other category. He has dominated the entire year, not just two months. Pretty much everytime Howard doesn't homer or drive in a run, he actually hurts his team. There is no such thing as a productive out for him. HR, RBI, K. Yea....that's the MVP. A guy who's hitting .240.

The NL MVP is Pujols (there's an L in there, FYI), and really it's not particularly close.

[Erik Bedard]

Originally Posted by zahavasdad

Last I checked the Cards were in 3rd place and falling. How valuable is Pujos to the Cards if they cant win with him.

Unless someone has a truly amazing season like Dawson did, Only a player on a playoff team deserves the MVP.

This is downright asinine. Pujols is having a better season than anything Andre Dawson could ever have done, certainly way, way, way better than Dawson's 1987 (193 OPS+ to 130). And St. Louis has the fourth-best offense in the NL. So you're saying you're going to penalize Pujols for his team's pitching staff!?!?! That is the dumbest insinuation I have ever heard. Worse than the 20-wins thing. Worse than anything. Dear god. I can't believe how insanely stupid this belief is.

zahavasdad, I'm sorry. I am in no way trying to attack you, just trying to state how incredibly stupid I feel that argument is.

[STLCards2]

Originally Posted by bjp3169

And yes, how you perform in the final stretch when you have another team breathing down your neck DOES hold more weight than what you did in April, May and June.

.

No, they don't. Just because people's nerves are more jumbled as the games run out does not mean the games are more important. If a team loses the division by one game, the game on Tuesday night game vs. the Pirates with David Wright taking a breather is just as damaging as a September 20th game vs. the Cubs with the whole team playing. Every game won or lost could be the game that does or does not send you to the playoffs. Every game lost early on is one more that has to be won later to make up for the initial loss. I have said it before, Delgado was so bad through most of June, that he helped put his team in such a massive hole, that it took a very good last 2 months to make up for it. had Delgado been even mediocre for the first half of the season, the Mets would not be struggling for a playof spot-they may have the best record in baseball.

It is like a criminal doing community service. Doing great things becasue you have to in order to even the score does not make the evil you did in the first place go away. Of course this is hyperbole, but you get my point.

By the way, how good would the Mets be if Albert Pujols were at first base all season? How much farther out of playoff contention would the Cards be if Delgado was playing there? The Cards would have been 5 under at the all-start break, and the Mets would have the best record in baseball now.

Can anybody here-in all honesty-claim that the Mets are better off with delgado than they would be with Albert...or Lance?

[bjp3169]

STLCards2, I never said Delgado should win the NL MVP. I haven't been watching the Cards or Astros all year long so I have no idea how good they've been for their respective teams. Based on current stats and previous performance, I'll assume Pujols is the most deserving.

I was merely trying to show how Delgado was the most deserving of mention on the Mets, and since everything in my message was responded to EXCEPT the stats I provided - well, the numbers speak for themselves

[STLCards2]

Originally Posted by Berkman#17

(
The best player should win the award. Not "only guys who are on playoff teams". Yes that is how it goes more often than not, but completely dismissing someone because they are from a 3rd place team is ridiculous.


The NL MVP is Pujols (there's an L in there, FYI), and really it's not particularly close.

Well, it is not just because Albert is the best player this year, but he also meets the mark in every vauge and ambiguous usage of the term "valuable" possible.

Albert started on a team predicted to be one of the worst in baseball, with not much around him. Instead, the Cardinals (playing in the toughest division in the NL - with 4 teams at least 10 games over) are only a couple of games out of a playoff spot. Albert has led this overachieving team - playing his best the last few months (sound familiar?) while Ankiel was hurt, Ludwck's production fell, and Carpenter and Wainright continued to get hurt and or miss time. In fact in "crunch time", I have shown that outside of a few more RBI's (team dependent), Alberts numbers are better than Delgado's. delgado has a couple more homeruns, but Albert has many more doubles. Albert has more XBhits the past 2 months than Delgado.

Instead of hitting with Utley, Rollins, and Victorino in front of him or Reyes, Church, Beltran, and Wright in front of him, Albert has had Schumacker, and some combination of the "fluke" Ludwick or /Miles//Mather/Stavinova/Lopez hitting in front of him. If you say you would have been able to identify any of these players by their last names a year ago-you probably would be lying in most cases. Instead of having Johan Santana or Cole Hammels anchoring his staff, he has Kyle Lohse. Instead of having Lidge or Wagner (for most of the season), he had Franklin/Perez/injured Isringhausen. Gee, I can't imagine why the Mets and Phillies are ahead of the Cardinals in the standings? It is so puzzling? The scary truth is- despite being out-talented in every single aspect of the game and at most positions (except first base, primarily), the Cardinals' record is right there with those big-dogs? Why? Could it be Albert?

The vague "value, not production" argument is Albert's to win as well - where would this largely mediocre team be with anybody else (besides Big Puma who has been a beats this year too) at first this year? It would be ugly.

Bottom line: you can't punish a guy because the team around him is not very good. Maybe if the team is in last place, but the Cardinals have a competative record to the Mets...with much less talent. Somebody deserves credit for this, right?

[Walt Zink]

Originally Posted by STLCards2

No, they don't. Just because people's nerves are more jumbled as the games run out does not mean the games are more important. If a team loses the division by one game, the game on Tuesday night game vs. the Pirates with David Wright taking a breather is just as damaging as a September 20th game vs. the Cubs with the whole team playing. Every game won or lost could be the game that does or does not send you to the playoffs. Every game lost early on is one more that has to be won later to make up for the initial loss.

chipper jones as MVP was LARGELY based off of what he did over the last month or so. same for rollins last year. this is how YOU feel about how the MVP is awarded. but MOST VALUABLE is also defined by how a player leads his team when they need it most. it's a very subjective definition, and not as concrete as you're laying it out right here.

[Otis Nixon's Bodyguard]

Originally Posted by zahavasdad

Last I checked the Cards were in 3rd place and falling. How valuable is Pujos to the Cards if they cant win with him.

Unless someone has a truly amazing season like Dawson did, Only a player on a playoff team deserves the MVP.

Delgado is 3rd in NL in Home Runs and 3rd in RBI's, Ahead of Pujos in both categories

The only real candidates for NL MVP is Ryan Howard or Carlos Delgado and the winner of the NL east should get the MVP

Were you being sarcastic or was that post for real? If it was meant to be taken seriously, the following things are wrong with it:

1. Albert Pujols is on pace to hit .360/.466/.652 with 37 home runs and an OPS+ above 190. That's not just an MVP season, it's a historically great season. He's been, far and away, the most valuable player in the National League this year.

2. Many serious baseball fans, especially sabermetrically inclined ones, consider Andre Dawson in 1987 to be one of the worst MVP winners of all-time.

3. One player cannot make the playoffs by himself. A great player on a bad team can still be more of an asset to that team than any single player on a first place team. I will concede that this particular point is debatable as it pertains to the MVP award.

4. Ryan Howard has pretty much stunk this year. His home run and RBI numbers are nice, but a 113 OPS+ out of a first baseman is pretty weak. Adam Dunn has been much more valuable than Ryan Howard this year.

5. Carlos Delgado has had a good run since the All-Star break, but his overall numbers shouldn't put him anywhere near the MVP debate. The MVP should play well all season long, not just during the second half. Delgado's batting average is currently lower than any MVP winner ever.

6. Why should a player on the winner of the NL East get the MVP? What about the Central and West? The Cubs have the best record in baseball. By your logic, someone on the Cubs must be pretty valuable...

[skyking162]

I have a post ready to run tomorrow at my blog, but let me just make two points:

1. If Delgado hadn't totally sucked the first half of the year, the Mets wouldn't have needed him to have such a good second half in order to be in the playoff hunt.

2. Carlos Beltran has been the most productive player on the Mets. He's very good offensively, although not as good as Wright and maybe not quite as good as Delgado. But he's a center fielder, which is drastically more valuable than a first baseman and slightly more valuable than a third baseman. And he's a Gold Glove-worthy center fielder at that. If you consider Delgado a bit below average at first, Beltran is worth about 35 (yes, THIRTY FIVE) more runs than Delgado just on defense. (15 for position, -5 for Delgado at 1B, and +15 for Beltran in CF.) Also, according to WPA, Delgado has been unclutch and Beltran has been clutch. Reyes is a bit behind Wright and ahead of Delgado.

[HOOTIE]

Pujols has a slight edge over Berkman.

Dawson winning in 87 was perhaps the worst vote ever. He wasn't close to top in runs created, adjusted batting runs, batting wins, ops+. Gywnn or Clark were the mvps.

Gibson in 88 wasn't as bad, but he wasn't close to Will Clark in any of the 4 catergories above.