John Olerud

[Brad Harris]

Here is John Olerud's up-to-date stats.

Here are his career stats thru 2002.

Since his name has risen in several discussions of late, I thought we might take a look at his career and ask where you think he might eventually settle in the history books.

[Steffo]

I think he will make the abllot, but he is the type that will be dropped off immediately. He hasn't done enough for me to say he's a HOF er.

[eurycea]

Well I voted for the second choice, but I should have looked at his stats first. I thought he'd higher black and gray ink scores.

[Cougar]

Olerud's really got to keep his production up for another few years, minimum. Even then it's tough, because we've had a huge glut of great first basemen over the last quarter century.

Pros: BA, OBP, doubles, runs scored, defense, playing for winners.

Cons: Limited HR power, less RBI than you like to see from 1b, only 2 All-Star appearances, little aura.

He's in his mid-thirties, playing in a pitcher's park, and is experiencing one of his periodic power droughts. He'll have a very tough time getting to the head of the line.

[yellowdog]

I think he's got a long way to go and probably doesn't have enough time to get there.

[The Commissioner]

I voted "a little more", but I guess that depends on your definition of a "little more". He still needs to have a few more very good seasons. I see anyone with 2000+ hits, 1000+ runs, 1000+RBI, and a batting average around .300 (.299) as a viable candidate. Just how much of a candidate depends on how much more he accomplishes. He is getting ready to pass Foxx and Sam Crawford for 65th all-time in doubles and has always been an excellent fielder. If he can play long enough, maintain a batting average around .300, and get closer to 300 HR (presently 232), he should stand a pretty good shot at the Hall. Of course "should" is the key word here. That doesn't necessarily mean he will get any votes.

[J W]

I think Olerud is the definition of the player worth more to his team than people think. I say this because I can only remember him playing on winning teams... and he is consistently a very good player. That .403 OBP speaks volumes to me.

But let's face it; Olerud's only shot at the Hall comes with longevity. He is younger than I thought (35 in August), so he has that going for him. He does seem like the kind of player who will play well even at age 40. But we don't know yet.

If he plays well for five more years, well then he'll have 2,800 hits, 1400 RBI & runs, and likely still an average over .290. Then, even in today's offensive era, you'll have to look at him. But that still won't guarantee a thing. For that he'll need to play seven or eight more years well, and considering he'll be 42-43, that in and of itself will be impressive on his Hall resume.

I consider that a long time, though, in a profession where a fluke injury can ruin your career tomorrow.

[scottdpops]

A few more years of Ichiro hitting in front of him and Boone hitting behind him and he might put up good enough stats,, he was a great player for NY, underrated glove man,, Heart of A Champion and Does eveyone remember, he had brain surgery when he played for Washington?

[Sandman]

He's got a lot more to do, only 2,000 hits, 230 HR and a little over 1,000 RBI. But then again, he's only 33.

[NOMAR22]

Originally Posted by The Commissioner

I voted "a little more", but I guess that depends on your definition of a "little more". He still needs to have a few more very good seasons. I see anyone with 2000+ hits, 1000+ runs, 1000+RBI, and a batting average around .300 (.299) as a viable candidate. Just how much of a candidate depends on how much more he accomplishes. He is getting ready to pass Foxx and Sam Crawford for 65th all-time in doubles and has always been an excellent fielder. If he can play long enough, maintain a batting average around .300, and get closer to 300 HR (presently 232), he should stand a pretty good shot at the Hall. Of course "should" is the key word here. That doesn't necessarily mean he will get any votes.

He has no shot to make the HOF. I would put Keith Hernandez,Steve Garvey,Dick Allen,Vada Pinson,Al Oliver,ahead of him in the HOF.

[vasprtsfn]

I think he has had enough production that he will be on the ballot for all 15 yrs by getting the minimum 5%. But I dont see him as a HOFer.

[Brad Harris]

Olerud isn't a Hall-of-Famer. The shame of it isn't that he won't be recognized as such, but rather that he won't be recognized for being as good as he really was. That doesn't have to be a Hall-of-Fame level for his career to be noteworthy. I have zero confidence in the voters keeping Olerud around (above 5% support) for any length of time and, much as he deserves some recognition for his outstanding accomplishments, there's really no need to keep him on the ballot if he's not a serious candidate in the discussion.

Someone a few decades from now will look at his numbers and say "gee...here's a guy who overlooked as a darned good player!" No reason why we can't say it now, though. Olerud easily skates into the Hall-of-the-Very-Good.

That said, he's more deserving than Mark Grace.

[Sweet Lou]

My Dad and John Olerud Sr. are friends and have lunch together sometimes. Dad said that John Sr. said that if John Jr. had played 3 or 4 more seasons, he'd be Hall of Fame worthy. While I'm a huge Olerud fan, and without looking at actual stats, I disagreed. He was very patient at the plate, drew the walks, was capable of hitting homeruns, but even with 3 or 4 more years, I don't think his numbers were Hall of Fame.

17 Seasons:
H 2239 2B 500 HR 255 BB 1275 RBI 1230 BA .295 OBP .398 GDP 230

PO 16166 A 1490 E 82 FP .995

1993 Batting Champion .363
3 Gold Gloves 2000, 2002, 2003

What do you guys think?
Lou

[cbenson5]

He had a couple of really good years and several solid years. He was never the dominant player at his position, and never had a period of great years. He is the kind of player that would have needed a milestone like 3000 hits to have gotten.

[KCGHOST]

Olerud is a big favorite of the statheads, but the BBWAA will see things differently. Very productive player, but as a 1B not productive enough.

[Williamsburg2599]

Had a lot of hype when he came right to the show from College, but he never really lived up to it. A great player, but not a HOF.

[plask_stirlac]

You mean Joe Mauer the first-baseman? hehe

He isn't quite there... excellent player, but not awe-inspiring outside of 1993 and 1998.

[Da Penguin]

good statistics....just not HOF worthy

[BoSox Rule]

This is odd. After doing my player rankings I was just going to start this thread.

John Olerud is quite possibly the most underrated player of our time. He as an on-base machine for over 9,000 plate appearances, with the .398 OBP. It was an amazing .473 in 1993 and was over .450 in 1998. He didn't hit for the power you'd expect for a first baseman but he had 2 great power seasons and was typically in the .470-.490 range. He was also one of the best defenders at 1B ever.

I am in the middle of the groundwork for my top players list and my starting point was (WARP over 8.0 plus career WARP / 2) and John Olerud places 66th out of all players in baseball history.

[Williamsburg2599]

Originally Posted by BoSox Rule

This is odd. After doing my player rankings I was just going to start this thread.

John Olerud is quite possibly the most underrated player of our time. He as an on-base machine for over 9,000 plate appearances, with the .398 OBP. It was an amazing .473 in 1993 and was over .450 in 1998. He didn't hit for the power you'd expect for a first baseman but he had 2 great power seasons and was typically in the .470-.490 range. He was also one of the best defenders at 1B ever.

I am in the middle of the groundwork for my top players list and my starting point was (WARP over 8.0 plus career WARP / 2) and John Olerud places 66th out of all players in baseball history.

"They both (statistics & bikinis) show a lot, but not everything." - Infielder Toby Harrah

[Fuzzy Bear]

Originally Posted by plask_stirlac

You mean Joe Mauer the first-baseman? hehe

He isn't quite there... excellent player, but not awe-inspiring outside of 1993 and 1998.

That's part of his problem; his career value is not evenly distributed.

Another problem is his relative lack of power.

A third problem is that his career is relatively short, though not terribly so.

If Olerud hit .310 lifetime he'd be a better candidate. Once he went under .300, he needed 3,000 hits, and he started too late and faded too early.

[jalbright]

Originally Posted by BoSox Rule

John Olerud is quite possibly the most underrated player of our time. He as an on-base machine for over 9,000 plate appearances, with the .398 OBP. It was an amazing .473 in 1993 and was over .450 in 1998. He didn't hit for the power you'd expect for a first baseman but he had 2 great power seasons and was typically in the .470-.490 range. He was also one of the best defenders at 1B ever.

I am in the middle of the groundwork for my top players list and my starting point was (WARP over 8.0 plus career WARP / 2) and John Olerud places 66th out of all players in baseball history.

Olerud's father is missing the main issue--that his son only had one really HOF/All-Star caliber year before 1996, in 1993. He wasn't nearly the same player during the strike years of 1994-1995. If he wouldn't have declined so precipitously in 94 and 95, he'd have had a nice ten year run that might come close to HOF territory. He would have gotten more recognition for that nice OBP (though his lack of power for a 1B somewhat undermines that positive), and he would have done better than 2 All-Star games and 362nd in MVP shares. He'd have done better than 19th or so in career win shares among 1B in the latest Bill James Historical Abstract (read: not quite good enough). His best five consecutive win share seasons put him 22nd among 1B in the BJHA. His best three years are nice, 11th best among 1B in the BJHA. But in HOF standards and the inks, he's not up to snuff either. He's 297th in Black Ink, 475th in Gray Ink and 155th in HOF standards. As for the claim he was "one of the best defenders at 1B ever", please explain how he won only three Gold Gloves if he was that good with the leather. Keith Hernandez had 11, after all, and is one of nine guys with more Gold Gloves at first than Olerud. Sorry, but I'll pass on him.

Jim Albright

[baseball junkie]

Olerud is exactly the type of first baseman I'd want playing for my team. He had a fantastic career. But he's not a Hall of Famer. There's no shame in that.

Because of his lack of power hitting he is relegated to second-tier status at his position, with others like Will Clark(completely unfairly in Clark's case), Mark Grace, J.T. Snow & Jeff Conine.

[Sweet Lou]

Thanks guys. I don't have the chops to know all this stuff, but I had one of those "gut feelings" like my namesake always had.

[KCGHOST]

Using RCAA here are active or recently retired 1B's rankings:

F. Thomas 800
Bagwell 680
McGwire 665
Palmeiro 572
Thome 565
Giambi 490
McGriff 481
W. Clark 473
Delgado 443
Helton 441
Olerud 397

So Olerud on that scale ranks 11th, but does score higher than Keith Hernandez (363).