The Significance of Soriano's Home/Road Splits

[538280]

No one gave a reply to this post on another thread, so I'll just start a thread with it:

Soriano will do much better at RFK than most seem to think. His home/road splits are atrocious, no doubt, but the first things that are apparent to me are 1.He walked a lot more at home, and 2.He struck out a lot less at home. Those two things aren't something that will be effected by a parks dimensions or atmosphere or run tendencies. It is just normal that most players walk more at home and strikeout less at home.

Those two things obviously effected his other numbers....Strikeouts are inversely related to BA and walks help his OBP and will also hurt his Slg and BA because those walks turned into outs on the road. Also, RFK, while a horrible HR park, was a good doubles and triples park last year. With Soriano's trmendous speed, he should rack up lots of those.

Though all those things won't make up for the HRs and BA, I think Soriano bodes much better for next year than many think. It's easy to look at the home/road numbers and think he'll fail, but as you look past that and see why indeed his numbers were worse on the road, you'll see he'll do okay at RFK.

[wilkerson_rulz-06]

Originally Posted by 538280

No one gave a reply to this post on another thread, so I'll just start a thread with it:

Soriano will do much better at RFK than most seem to think. His home/road splits are atrocious, no doubt, but the first things that are apparent to me are 1.He walked a lot more at home, and 2.He struck out a lot less at home. Those two things aren't something that will be effected by a parks dimensions or atmosphere or run tendencies. It is just normal that most players walk more at home and strikeout less at home.

Those two things obviously effected his other numbers....Strikeouts are inversely related to BA and walks help his OBP and will also hurt his Slg and BA because those walks turned into outs on the road. Also, RFK, while a horrible HR park, was a good doubles and triples park last year. With Soriano's trmendous speed, he should rack up lots of those.

Though all those things won't make up for the HRs and BA, I think Soriano bodes much better for next year than many think. It's easy to look at the home/road numbers and think he'll fail, but as you look past that and see why indeed his numbers were worse on the road, you'll see he'll do okay at RFK.

Don't be too sure.
Soriano is a good player, RFK is HUGE!!
He has to learn to play small-ball and use RFK's space like Coors Field.
Nice article Chris!

[Ryan25Zimmerman]

Originally Posted by wilkerson_rulz

Don't be too sure.
Soriano is a good player, RFK is HUGE!!
He has to learn to play small-ball and use RFK's space like Coors Field.
Nice article Chris!

Can't put it any better than that

[GreenMountainMan]

Originally Posted by 538280

No one gave a reply to this post on another thread, so I'll just start a thread with it:

Soriano will do much better at RFK than most seem to think. His home/road splits are atrocious, no doubt, but the first things that are apparent to me are 1.He walked a lot more at home, and 2.He struck out a lot less at home. Those two things aren't something that will be effected by a parks dimensions or atmosphere or run tendencies. It is just normal that most players walk more at home and strikeout less at home.

Those two things obviously effected his other numbers....Strikeouts are inversely related to BA and walks help his OBP and will also hurt his Slg and BA because those walks turned into outs on the road. Also, RFK, while a horrible HR park, was a good doubles and triples park last year. With Soriano's trmendous speed, he should rack up lots of those.

Though all those things won't make up for the HRs and BA, I think Soriano bodes much better for next year than many think. It's easy to look at the home/road numbers and think he'll fail, but as you look past that and see why indeed his numbers were worse on the road, you'll see he'll do okay at RFK.

Sure....and we all hoped the same for one Vinny Castilla didn't we. Soriano won't match his numbers from the previous 2 or 3 seasons but I don't suspect them too plummet either. He should be good for 25 taters and 40 steals while the batting average will suffer. One thing is for sure, he won't get as many at bats in the NL as the AL and he won't see as many good pitches to hit until he shows the league that he'll take the walk. That coupled with the adjustment to the NL (I hope I'm wrong here) leads me to believe that we're in for a long first two months of the season regarding Soriano. Oh yeah, he doesn't want to play outfield either which makes me question his desire to play for the Nats.

[538280]

Originally Posted by GreenMountainMan

Sure....and we all hoped the same for one Vinny Castilla didn't we.

But Vinny didn't have the big disparity in walks and strikeouts from home/road splits. The big difference in Soriano's numbers home and road is the SO/BBs. Those things are not something effected from the run tendency of the park, but rather on the crowd's effect on the game and the benefit of just staying close to home, not having to travel.

If a player is doing WAY better at home than on the road, that can mean two things. These are the two things:

A)They can mean the player's home park is helping him big time, and that he's not really as good a hitter as his numbers suggest, or

B)That he's doing better at home because of other factors, like he's just more confortable there, the crowd, he's not tired from traveling, etc.

Since Soriano's splits are mostly due to the difference strikeouts and walks, I think his splits are mostly due to factor B, as opposed to factor A. That would seem to suggest he'll have decent success at RFK.

[KCGHOST]

I am squarely in the camp that Soriano will be miserable at RFK. He has demonstrated no ability in his career to adapt to anything. He has shown no willingness to change his game to help the team. He will a remain a terrible fielding 2B who swings from the heels at anything he sees.

[Ravenlord]

Originally Posted by KCGHOST

I am squarely in the camp that Soriano will be miserable at RFK. He has demonstrated no ability in his career to adapt to anything. He has shown no willingness to change his game to help the team. He will a remain a terrible fielding 2B who swings from the heels at anything he sees.

yep.

expect a split worse than Jose Guillen's.

[538280]

Originally Posted by KCGHOST

I am squarely in the camp that Soriano will be miserable at RFK. He has demonstrated no ability in his career to adapt to anything. He has shown no willingness to change his game to help the team. He will a remain a terrible fielding 2B who swings from the heels at anything he sees.

He won't have to adapt to anything. The fact is, he was still just about as good a hitter away from Arlington as he was in Arlington these past two years. The real difference in his numbers was not that he wasn't walking nearly as much on the road and was striking out way more on the road. It's normal for players to do that, because of the crowd's effect on the game. Stikeouts and walks have NOTHING to do with a park's effects on hitters.