Juan Gonzalez a Hall of Famer?

[Mariano Rivera]

He has 434 career homers and a .295 career batting average. He has been very injury prone the last few years, including this year as well. I know if he retired right now he would not get into the Hall of Fame because he was a lock 5 or 6 years ago to at least hit 600 or more career bombs. Tell me what you think.

[Windy City Fan]

Pros:

2 MVP Awards with two more top 5 finishes and another top ten finish.
2 Home Run titles and a very good chance at 500.
Averages over 90 RBI a season.
Good average for a slugger at .290
Career OPS+ of 133
Still young enough to add to his numbers.

Cons:
Career has faded in recent years, and his counting stats may not look as impressive when stacked up against contemparies like Sosa, Bonds, McGwire, Griffey, and Rodriguez.
22 active players are ahead of him in OPS+, including non HOFers like Brian Giles, Edgar Martinez, Jason Giambi, Bobby Abreau, and Jim Edmonds.
Never hit 50 HRs in the home run happy era he plays in.
A little light in black ink.

Overall, I'd say Juan has a chance to get elected. Its quite possible the writers will look at his stats and say, “Oooh, a career .290 hitter with 500 HRs and a boat load of RBIs!” Personally, I'd say no if he retired right now, and if he finishes his career like I think he will, I'd probably be sitting on the fence. If he finishes stronger than I expect him to, he'll be a lock.

[DoubleX]

The 2 MVPs look really nice, but that doesn't always sway the fickle voters. If it did, then Dale Murphy wouldn't be in danger of falling off the ballot next year.

[Bump11]

Yeah DoubleX the 2 MVPs do look good. He's had a couple of .330-45-130 type seasons in his career. But to be a Hal member you have to be consistent your entire career, and for the last 4 years he has not been doing that. So here's what I say-- if he gets to 500 dingers, yes, if not, no.

[Cougar]

If he's finished, I think he'll have a hard time making it.

If he's got one more good year in him (say, .280, 35, 100), I'd upgrade him to probable.

If he's got two more, then he hits 500 and he's a lock.

I think it's hard to project him now because his health and motivation are such question marks.

His case is wholly on offensive stats; he's a mediocre fielder and baserunner, a clubhouse cipher, and a postseason bust. The two MVP's are nice, but tell it to Dale Murphy (who should be in, by the way).

[four tool]

I'm on the fence about Juan, but Murphy should be in if Juan even gets seriously considered!

[improbus]

I'm having a hard time deciding whether Juan's HOF material. Really, I think he's very similar to Edgar Martinez in many ways, with Juan having 100 more dingers, but with Edgar having a massively higher OBP. I think the two MVP's, and the fact that he may be able to play a few more years work in Juan's favor, but I agree with most everyone else, if he retired today, I would have to say no.
PS. Why aren't people haggling over Juan being primarily a DH over the last 10 years? It has been the hot topic with Edgar, but I haven't seen it with Juan. Usually, I think the a HOF either has to be the absolute best at what he did over at least eight to ten years, or be really, really, good in more than one area. So, for example, Rickey is a HOF because he was the best basestealer over a long period, but Vince Coleman isn't because he didn't last long enough, the same goes with Roger over Doc Gooden, Randy Johnson over Kevin Brown, and Sammy over Luis Gonzalez. Was Juan more dominant over his period than Ken Griffey Jr.? Frank Thomas? Alex Rodriguez? Manny Ramirez? even Alvert Belle? So, if he's not totally freakish and better than them, then he better have done something else to deserve the hall, such as Pudge's defense, Raffy's Gold Gloves and 500 home runs, Jeter's rings and big game presence, Griffey's glove and the list goes on. There are too many guys putting up numbers like Juan Gonzalez to let them all in, so there has to be some sort of new criterion, because if we let in Juan, what happens when guys like Brian Giles and Richie Sexson come up? They will have 400 home runs, around a .300 average, tons of RBI's, a good OBP., etc...., but they can't all get in. Again, as I said with Edgar, odds are, if Juan goes in, someone gets left out, and who will that be? Jeff Bagwell? Frank Thomas? It's a tough call.

[Brad Harris]

Juan Gonzalez's MVP seasons were 1996 and 1998. Below is where Gonzalez ranked among AL players in win shares for those seasons.

1996 American League
34 Alex Rodriguez, Seattle
32 Chuck Knoblauch, Minnesota
31 Roberto Alomar, Baltimore
31 Albert Belle, Cleveland
30 Rafael Palmeiro, Baltimore
29 Mark McGwire, Oakland
29 Mo Vaughn, Boston
28 Brady Anderson, Baltimore
28 Ken Griffey Jr., Seattle
28 Frank Thomas, Chicago
28 Jim Thome, Cleveland
26 Bernie Williams, New York
24 Pat Hentgen, Toronto
23 Kenny Lofton, Cleveland
23 Edgar Martinez, Seattle
23 Manny Ramirez, Cleveland
23 Ivan Rodriguez, Texas
22 Jay Buhner, Seattle
22 Ken Hill, Texas
22 Paul O'Neill, New York
22 Cal Ripken Jr., Baltimore
22 Tim Salmon, California
21 Juan Gonzalez, Texas
21 Rusty Greer, Texas
21 Bobby Higginson, Detroit
21 Tino Martinez, New York
21 Charles Nagy, Cleveland
21 Tony Phillips, Chicago

1998 American League
37 Albert Belle, Chicago
30 Alex Rodriguez, Seattle
29 Ken Griffey Jr., Seattle
29 Jose Offerman, Kansas City
27 Scott Brosius, New York
27 Nomar Garciaparra, Boston
27 Derek Jeter, New York
27 Ivan Rodriguez, Texas
27 Bernie Williams, New York
26 Paul O'Neill, New York
25 Roger Clemens, Toronto
25 Ray Durham, Chicago
25 Juan Gonzalez, Texas
25 Manny Ramirez, Cleveland
25 Frank Thomas, Chicago
25 Mo Vaughn, Boston

So, according to win shares, Gonzalez tied as the 23rd most valuable player in 1996 and tied as the 11th most valuable player in 1998. The point being, not that JuanGone was necessarily the 23rd or 11th best player in the league, but that Gonzalez was one of many worthy (and perhaps more worthy) candidates. It isn't as if he was substantially more identifiable over hitters like Albert Belle, Mo Vaughn, Frank Thomas, etc. during those seasons.

This isn't to say necessarily that Gonzalez was undeserving of his two awards (though you could certainly be forgiven for drawing that conclusion from this data). Rather to say that an argument can be made that Gonzalez's awards could arguably have been mistakes. He did win the MVP. Twice. But as we all know from other BBWAA "awards" - the Hall of Fame elections, for example - the writers do make mistakes and are prone to prejudices.

[Windy City Fan]

Originally Posted by four tool

I'm on the fence about Juan, but Murphy should be in if Juan even gets seriously considered!

Dale Murphy

OPS+121
Average .265 (.267)
OBP .346 (.336)
SLG .469 (.398)
SB 161 (70%)
K to BB Ratio 1:1.77
Black Ink 31
Grey Ink 147
2 MVP (two other top ten finishes, 7th and 9th)
5 GG
Range Factor 2.25 (1.96)
Fielding Perct. .983 (.980)

Juan Gonzalez

OPS+133
Average .296 (.270)
OBP .344 (.341)
SLG .563 (.425)
SB 26 (59%)
K to BB Ratio 1:2.80
Black Ink 17
Grey Ink 105
2 MVP (three other top ten finishes, 4th, 5th, and 9th)
No GG
Range Factor 1.86 (1.79)
Fielding Perct. .986 (.981)

Both didn't take a lot of walks, though Murph was much better at it. Both struck out a lot.

Murphy was clearly a better baserunner (he even had a 30-30 season) and fielder (bonus points for being a centerfielder). However, since Murphy wasn't a great fielder or a great baserunner, I was prepared to argue that Juan's advantages in Batting Average and Slugging Percentage, along with his superior rankings in the MVP voting were enought to tilt the advantage to him.

Then I looked up Black Ink and Grey Ink scores. Juan is no longer a serious canidate to lead the league in any major offensive catagories, so its fair to compare them in Black Ink, and probably Grey Ink too. Murphy blows Juan Gone away. Its fairly obvious that Murphy was more of a premier player in his day than Gonzalez was in his.

I've never really supported Murphy's canidacy for the hall, but I was leaning towards a hesitant yes for Gonzalez. Now I'm not sure what to think.

[Brad Harris]

Murphy stacks up well against his contemporaries and against the historic norms for Hall of Fame center fielders. The same can't be said for Gonzalez. I have Murphy as a "yes" and the most deserving center fielder available. Gonzalez will be far down the list of corner outfielders/DH's when he becomes eligible. Way down the list.

[J W]

I think Igor should just retire now and put this whole argument to rest .

If he winds up being elected, I say it would be a fair comparison to when certain certain sluggers from the 30's were elected, who may not cut it for many people.

As of right now, Gonzalez gets lumped into a group with Jose Canseco and George Foster. But here are the most statistically similar players to Gonzalez through age 33:

- Albert Belle
- Ken Griffey Jr.
- Duke Snider
- Jim Rice
- Orlando Cepeda
- Jeff Bagwell
- Barry Bonds
- Sammy Sosa
- Jose Canseco
- Frank Robinson

...not a bad list, really. Juan-Gone's biggest thing going for him is that he started playing at age 19. I cannot stress enough the importance of playing well early in age, to someone's HOF case. Gonzalez has the leeway in this day and age to hide himself behind the DH position and collect pretty much anything he wants... 500 HRs... 500 doubles... 1500 strikeouts (well)... it all comes down to how much he wants it.

Gonzalez is not Dale Murphy, and he is also outside my cutline. I'll keep his door open though if he can produce to age 40.

[Windy City Fan]

That's a pretty good list actually. Everyone there is a HOFer (Snider, Robinson, Cepeda), a future HOFer (Bonds, Sosa, Bagwell, Griffey) or a borderline canidate with a reasonable argument (Rice, Belle). I'd put 8 or 9 of the ten in the hall, with the lone exception being Canseco (I continually waver on Rice).

[Brad Harris]

WCF

Your thoughts on that list of similar players seem to mirror my own.

Re: Belle and Rice, however. Their cases are similar, but I look at Belle's sudden departure from the game as premature since his skills were otherwise in tact. Rice, on the other hand, simply declined as he aged. In short, if not for the debilitating arthritis in his hip, Belle's career would easily have eclipsed Rice's and not been comparative to it had he been permitted to age normally. I suppose that's why I've got Belle slotted just ahead of Rice.

[four tool]

Rice doesn't cut it as a hall of famer. I saw him play and agree that he's a better than average hitter, but not a great hitter--Ted Williams said that and he should know. Also, hall of fame for a hitter who couldn't maintain a .300 average with Fenway as his home park? I don't think so.(Yaz is the lone exception to that rule and he got to 3000 hits).

[dgarza]

Originally Posted by four tool

Rice doesn't cut it as a hall of famer. I saw him play and agree that he's a better than average hitter, but not a great hitter--Ted Williams said that and he should know. Also, hall of fame for a hitter who couldn't maintain a .300 average with Fenway as his home park? I don't think so.(Yaz is the lone exception to that rule and he got to 3000 hits).

Hitting alone, Rice looks better than Yaz on season avgs.
But I don't want to get off track.

If Juan was retired, he'd have the highest AVG for all major non-HOF sluggers.
I'd have no problem with him in at this point. It doesn't seem like his career numbers have been milked yet. They are all pretty much competetive years. The last few years have not been bad, even if not typical. That looks good to me, aslong as he knows when is when, like this year.

[Windy City Fan]

Originally Posted by Chancellor

WCF

Your thoughts on that list of similar players seem to mirror my own.

Re: Belle and Rice, however. Their cases are similar, but I look at Belle's sudden departure from the game as premature since his skills were otherwise in tact. Rice, on the other hand, simply declined as he aged. In short, if not for the debilitating arthritis in his hip, Belle's career would easily have eclipsed Rice's and not been comparative to it had he been permitted to age normally. I suppose that's why I've got Belle slotted just ahead of Rice.

I completely agree that Belle has a better case than Rice. However, I think their actual chances of making it into the hall are about the same since Belle is one of baseball's all time jerks. If he was a warm and cuddly figure (i.e. Kirby Puckett) then he gets in on the first ballot.

On Rice I constantly change my mind. One day he is a HOFer, the next I'm not so sure.

[nightal]

Originally Posted by four tool

I'm on the fence about Juan, but Murphy should be in if Juan even gets seriously considered!

Short and to the point. And totally correct

[micsmith]

From 1976-1989, Murphy had 6749 At Bats, which is right around how many At Bats Juan Gonzalez has now (6555). Murphy played for another four years, but he really didn't pile much more onto his career stat totals. Here is a comparison of the career totals of Gonzalez and Murphy through 1989:

Runs: Murphy (1065); Juan (1061)
Hits: Murphy (1820); Juan (1936)
2B: Murphy (292); Juan (388)
3B: Murphy (37); Juan (25)
HR: Murphy (354); Juan (434)
RBI: Murphy (1088); Juan (1404)
TB: Murphy (3248); Juan (3676)
BB: Murphy (871); Juan (457)
SO: Murphy (1497); Juan (1273)
SB: Murphy (151); Juan (26)
Avg: Murphy (.270); Juan (.295)

I'm not sure if Gonzalez deserved his MVP awards of if he is a future Hall of Famer (I think he's on pace right now, but he needs a few more healthy seasons). But it's clear that Juan is a much better hitter than Murphy was. He has more hits in fewer at bats and a substantially higher batting average with far fewer strikeouts. There is not doubt that he is a better power hitter as well. Murphy's advantages are in his baserunning but not his fielding. Murphy's career fielding average is almost identical to Juan's. Murphy was an all-star 7 times (Juan only 3 times), which indicates that he was a better player relative to who he was playing against, but it doesn't mean that he was a better player than Juan.

Despite two MVP awards I don't think Murphy is a Hall of Famer. But if Juan can only get healthy and play a few more full seasons - they don't even have to be great seasons - he could pad his career numbers enough to look like a certain Hall of Famer. He turns 35 next month, which means he might have two or three more good seasons in him. He needs about 100 more home runs and 300 RBI to be in the top 20 of those two career categories. If he can get close, I don't see how you could keep him out of the Hall.

[DoubleX]

Originally Posted by micsmith

From 1976-1989, Murphy had 6749 At Bats, which is right around how many At Bats Juan Gonzalez has now (6555). Murphy played for another four years, but he really didn't pile much more onto his career stat totals. Here is a comparison of the career totals of Gonzalez and Murphy through 1989:

Runs: Murphy (1065); Juan (1061)
Hits: Murphy (1820); Juan (1936)
2B: Murphy (292); Juan (388)
3B: Murphy (37); Juan (25)
HR: Murphy (354); Juan (434)
RBI: Murphy (1088); Juan (1404)
TB: Murphy (3248); Juan (3676)
BB: Murphy (871); Juan (457)
SO: Murphy (1497); Juan (1273)
SB: Murphy (151); Juan (26)
Avg: Murphy (.270); Juan (.295)

I'm not sure if Gonzalez deserved his MVP awards of if he is a future Hall of Famer (I think he's on pace right now, but he needs a few more healthy seasons). But it's clear that Juan is a much better hitter than Murphy was. He has more hits in fewer at bats and a substantially higher batting average with far fewer strikeouts. There is not doubt that he is a better power hitter as well. Murphy's advantages are in his baserunning but not his fielding. Murphy's career fielding average is almost identical to Juan's. Murphy was an all-star 7 times (Juan only 3 times), which indicates that he was a better player relative to who he was playing against, but it doesn't mean that he was a better player than Juan.

Despite two MVP awards I don't think Murphy is a Hall of Famer. But if Juan can only get healthy and play a few more full seasons - they don't even have to be great seasons - he could pad his career numbers enough to look like a certain Hall of Famer. He turns 35 next month, which means he might have two or three more good seasons in him. He needs about 100 more home runs and 300 RBI to be in the top 20 of those two career categories. If he can get close, I don't see how you could keep him out of the Hall.

A few things to note that may distinguish Murphy from Gonzalez for HoF purposes.

First, Murphy played a ton of CF, a much more demanding position with lower offensive expectations than RF and LF. After the five or six all-time great CF's (Mays, Cobb, Mantle, DiMaggio, Speaker, and Snider), there is a huge drop off in the quality of all-time CF (with the exception of Griffey Jr., whose career is after Murphy's). After this group, the offensive statistics of most of the CF in the Hall are not nearly as impressive as the stastics of the corner OFs in the Hall. So the Hall of Fame standard for Murphy is considerably different than for Juan Gonzalez who is competing against dozens of all-time great corner OFs with gaudy offensive stats.

Second, the disparity in power numbers between Murphy and Gonzalez is misleading because of the era in which the two played. Gonzalez hit his stride during the homer happy mid 90's - today. Murphy was at his best during the homer deficient 80's when hitting 36 or 37 homeruns was enough to lead the league (which was the case when Murphy led the league in '84 and '85). Both Murphy and Gonzalez have led the league in homeruns twice, but Murphy finished 9 times in the top ten, whereas Gonzalez has done it 7 times (and will be hard-pressed to do it twice more to match Murphy).

Third, it's very, very misleading to say their a push defensively. Again, Murphy played the far more demanding CF and was a 5 time gold glover.

Murphy suffered through a disastrous decline in his early 30's the easily make one forget just how dominant and good he was throughout the 80's. I believe if Murphy had hit those 2 extra homeruns to get to 400, his candidacy would be getting much more support. I don't think anyone would argue that Gonzalez was the best player of the 90's, but I think a plausible argument could be made that Murphy was the best player of the 80's, which shows that Murphy was the more dominant and standout player among his peers.

[four tool]

DoubleXX,

That's it in a nutshell, counting numbers always need to be compared to league averages, etc. The more anyone looks, the more Murphy rises above Juan at least at this point in Juan's career.

[Windy City Fan]

While I am taking a second look at Murphy and his hall canidacy, I would never say he was the best player of the 80's. Mike Schimdt, Rickey Henderson, Tim Raines, Ryne Sandburg, Cal Ripken, and Ozzie Smith are all ahead of him as position players. I'd probably rank Carlton Fisk and maybe Gary Carter ahead of him as well.

[DoubleX]

Originally Posted by Windy City Fan

While I am taking a second look at Murphy and his hall canidacy, I would never say he was the best player of the 80's. Mike Schimdt, Rickey Henderson, Tim Raines, Ryne Sandburg, Cal Ripken, and Ozzie Smith are all ahead of him as position players. I'd probably rank Carlton Fisk and maybe Gary Carter ahead of him as well.

I wouldn't say Murphy was the best player of the 80's either, but I believe he deserves to be part of the best player of the 80's discussion more than Gonzalez does for best player of the 90's.

[Freakshow]

When you look at context, Murphy is clearly ahead of JuanGon. Murphy has large leads in Black ink (31-17) and Gray Ink (147-105).

Top 6 years in OPS+ are very similar:

Dale 156-151-150-149-142-135
Juan 169-150-149-147-141-134

Murphy added dimensions of Fielding, baserunning, durability and leadership that Gonzalez could only dream of.

Unless JuanGon can come back and add a finishing kick to his career, it's not really close.

Win Shares tells a similar story, although I don't have the exact numbers with me now.

[Steffo]

IMHO, JuaGo will make the ballot, but will be a Lou Whitaker type of guy and fall of the ballot and miss being elected by the Vetrans Comittee, people will forget about him even though he is better than some already elected into the HOF..

[csh19792001]

Originally Posted by Steffo

IMHO, JuaGo will make the ballot, but will be a Lou Whitaker type of guy and fall of the ballot and miss being elected by the Vetrans Comittee, people will forget about him even though he is better than some already elected into the HOF..

Pluses-
One of the best RBI men in a long, long time. (where is he alltime in RBI/game?)
Good BA and SLG
Pretty good arm/range
Good postseason record

Minuses-
Basically everything else.
K's 3 times as much as he walked, atrocious OBP.
Poor speed/terrible SB numbers
RBI's are a stat as much of opportunity as anything- his career BA with RISP is actually LOWER than his career BA, which reinforces this idea (he had more opportunities/players on base than average, and he almost always chose to swing away).