Careers cut short

[Professor]

Obviously, HOF standards derive almost solely from the accumulation of gaudy numbers over a lengthy career. But what about special cases, in which a spectacular career ends abruptly, long before its time?

For instance, if Pedro (I am actually knocking on wood as I type this, for real) blew out his shoulder in his next start and never pitched again, is he a Hall of Famer? In his case, I say yes, unequivocally.

A-Rod is another player that would be left in this proverbial HOF Limbo. Here again, I vote "yea."

To me, where human beings are the determinants in the admission process, there will always be a degree of subjectivity; hence the lack of consistency I mentioned in the "Rice vs. Perez" thread. Therefore, sometimes sabermetrics must take a backseat in favor of the Grandchildren Corollary. Take a player that you've actually seen on the field in your lifetime, either live or on TV -- any player at all -- and consider whether or not you'll be telling your grandchildren about him. Unscientific, sure -- but this is baseball, after all.

Interested to hear other thoughts and perspectives -- and other players who might fit this mold.....

[DoubleX]

It's happened before, Kirby Puckett being the most recent example, Ralph Kiner, and Joe DiMaggio are some noteworthy examples, and Sandy Koufax is perhaps the best example. I think if Pedro and ARod were forced to retire today, they would both make it. They both have been so good and so dominant throughout their entire careers, and the skills they have displayed during that time are on par with most any other player in history.

I think Albert Belle will be an interesting example - he's like Ralph Kiner, but his hall chances are likely to be hurt because he's also like Dick Allen, in that he's not portrayed as the most amiable of guys. Belle's shortened career, like Kiner's, is probably worthy of induction, but because of his surly and offstandish demeanor, the voters may hold his shortened career against him, like Dick Allen.

[Edgartohof]

What about if the player was not called up soon enough, and therefor does

not have the time put in for the hall, and therefor the numbers for it.

Specifically I am talking about Edgar Martinez (signed in '82, didn't get a full

season until '90 because horrible management kept Jim Presley in at Third)

but I am sure there are many others out there with similar situations. I am

willing to take SOME considerations into it, but I was wondering what others

thought on the subject.

[The Dude]

I would hardly call keeping Presley at 3rd until '89 horrible management. If I had a 3rd baseman who was hitting 25+ home runs a year, and 80+ RBI's, I wouldn't get rid of him. 85-87 Presley had those stats, plus he was slugging .430+ as season. What you look for in a 3rd Baseman. Now, he had a bad year in '88, but people have bad years once in a while, so it makes perfect sense to at least keep Presley in '89 to see if it was a fluke year. They got rid of him after that.

Now, last time I checked, 450+ at bats is pretty close to a full season, if not a full season. He had that in '90, after they got rid of Presley, and before '92, which you're counting as his first full season. So his first full season was '90.

Now, for what I wanted to say, is pretty much in the same structure as ETTHOF's comments about not making the majors soon enough. What about Ichiro? His first 3 seasons of .310+ AVG and 200+ hits. He's on pace for 234 hits this season, and has a .331 AVG as of now.
If Ichiro can post 8-10 Seasons of 200+ hits and .300+ AVG, and have a few years at the end of his career of 160+ hits and .280+ AVG, will he be HOF worthy?

[BoSox Rule]

Reasonably young players who would make the Hall if they retired RIGHT NOW.

Pedro
A-Rod
Manny (his domination of the AL and his AMAZING numbers are too good to overlook)
Nomar and Jeter for being shortstops hitting .315+

[The Dude]

Nomar's only in his 9th year, he wouldn't be eligable. Also, say he played 3 games in one season prior, he would have only played 6 full seasons in his career, and his defense isn't as good as A-Rods. Nomar is borderline RIGHT NOW value if he was in his 10th season. I'd even go as far as to say that he needs at least 2 more good seasons because of Fenway. He's a righty hitting in a righty's dream park for only 6 full seasons.

[Appling]

I think the HOF requirement of ten years minimum is just fine. If a player has enough seasons to qualify (even if less than ten FULL seasons) he should be eligible for the ballot. Then the voters can decide if his career merits Hall of Fame status.

Koufax qualified. Puckett qualified. Pedro Martinez is also now qualified.
But anything LESS than ten seasons should not qualify -- no matter what.
(To my knowledge, NO ONE with less than ten years service has ever been voted as a player into the HOF. Why start now?)

Of course, getting on the ballot is just the first step. Next comes the hard part -- convincing 3/4 of the voters that you belong there!

[RuthMayBond]

I'm not sure if he would have made the Hall but Mike Easler was HORRIBLY mismanaged

[Cougar]

Addie Joss played nine years (1902-1910) before he was stricken with disease (Bright's disease if I remember right, a kidney ailment) and died in April 1911.

In his case, the 10 year requirement was waived and he was (deservedly) put in the Hall.

I don't think there's another case of one inducted for his accomplishments in the major leagues as a player who had less than 10 seasons. Of course there are Negro Leaguers, managers, executives, umpires, pioneers, etc.

[BoSox Rule]

If you take out Nomar's fluke road average last year, he is a .321 road hitter.

[BustaJ2632]

I went to check on Ichiro's age, thinking he was 33-34. He's 30. Which basically makes my question about what if he doesn't make it to 10 years moot, since he's already in year 4.

But he's 30...still very much in the prime of his career for a position player, and now well-established in the Major Leagues. Scary to think that his best year(s) may be ahead of him....

[DoubleX]

I think if Ichiro can finish with a career average over .310 (it's at .328 and rising right now), and continue to be a force on the basepaths and a table setter at the top of the order as well as a very good outfielder with a gun of an arm, he'll get in the hall and be recognized as the first great Japanese position player to make it over here. He's really a unique force in today's game - a throwback type player. Plus, his success has helped to globalize Major League Baseball and has opened the door for what will no doubt be a growing influx of good Japanese and other Asian players. If there is a Baseball World Cup in the near future, I think Ichiro's success over here will have played a big part in bringing about a World Cup so soon.

[ElHalo]

Originally Posted by Appling

(To my knowledge, NO ONE with less than ten years service has ever been voted as a player into the HOF. Why start now?)

Addie Joss is the only person inducted into the Hall of Fame as a player (not associated with the Negro Leagues) with less than 10 years of major league play.

Al Spalding had only 8 years, but I believe he was inducted as a pioneer instead of as a player.

Amos Rusie makes it by the skin of his teeth... pitched in a grand total of 3 games in his tenth and final season. Similarly, Ross Youngs played in 7 games his first season, then had 9 more seasons of play. Dizzy Dean has 12 years, but in 3 of them he pitched only 1 game.

Originally Posted by Professor

For instance, if Pedro (I am actually knocking on wood as I type this, for real) blew out his shoulder in his next start and never pitched again, is he a Hall of Famer? In his case, I say yes, unequivocally.

A-Rod is another player that would be left in this proverbial HOF Limbo. Here again, I vote "yea."

If A-Rod retired today, it'd be similar to Junior Griffey having retired in 1999... guaranteed yes. He was just THAT good for the beginning of his career... Ralph Kiner dominated for ten years and got in, and ARod's better than Kiner.

As far as Pedro goes... I'd be willing to go so far as to say that if Pedro had retired after injuring his arm in the 2001 season, he'd be a more than likely Hall of Famer.

[BoSox Rule]

Originally Posted by ElHalo

If A-Rod retired today, it'd be similar to Junior Griffey having retired in 1999... guaranteed yes. He was just THAT good for the beginning of his career... Ralph Kiner dominated for ten years and got in, and ARod's better than Kiner.

Are you saying he had a better chance then? Or, that you would've inducted him then anyway?

[ElHalo]

Obviously that he was deserving then. Everything he's done since is just gravy.

[Fuzzy Bear]

To me, a valid consideration is whether the reason the player's career was cut short was something entirely beyond his control, or something that was a consequence of his skill base.

Things like WWII are beyond a player's control. Military service. As for cutting a player's career short on the front end, I would include being trapped in the minor leagues behind an established regular (if the player in question was, in fact, performing in the minors in a way that indicated he was ready for a major league job). Edgar Martinez is an example of someone who deserves some slack in this regard. Situations such as Ichiro Suzuki's are another example; the major leagues weren't all that open to Japanese players until recently. If a player develops a freak illness (Kirby Puckett) or has an injury/accident unrelated to his playing baseball (Roy Campanella), that could be taken into account.

On the other hand, a player should NOT get any slack for injuries stemming from his play on the field. The bad knees and bad backs and arm injuries that often shorten stars' careers are not beyond a player's control; they are a consequence of the player's skills. If a player is not durable, that is a mark against a player; not all players are as injury prone as others. If a pitcher blows out his arm throwing a screwball, that's not something to mitigate the evaluation of that pitcher; the pitcher chose to throw a high risk pitch that enabled the pitcher to star, but increased the risk of injury.

[CROM]

ross youngs is one that comes to mind.. took him 45 years to get in..

[Fuzzy Bear]

Originally Posted by CROM

ross youngs is one that comes to mind.. took him 45 years to get in..

His selection wasn't one of the HOF's best moments, but Youngs is one of the Frisch cabal selections that have some justification. Youngs was a hustling player, and his BAs were enough above league average to make him a borderline case at best. He died of Bright's Disease in 1926 and was not diagnosed until then, but he had an off year in 1925, so I wonder if he wasn't ill then as well, and it was undiagnosed.

I have always advocated for Al Rosen's selection. I view him as the Koufax of position players, and one of the few guys with injury shortened careers that I would advocate for on peak value, alone.

[rugbyfreak]

Pedro and A-Rod, I don't think, apply here, since nearly every worthy baseball mind out there believes they both are already in, even if they never play another game.

Belle is an interesting case. Here's a guy who played only 10 full seasons out of 12 (had to retire due to illness), so right away he's borderline--he's in Addie Joss/Koufax territory. But check out those 10 years (1991-'00)--monster years, almost all of them. His final year, he had 103 RBI, so we can assume he still had much more to give. He led the '90s decade in runs produced (I believe), the roids years, admittedly, but I never heard him implicated here, even by his most ardent haters.

And there, folks, is the rub: what I have often called in these spaces as the "Hump Factor". Few players in recent memory were bigger humps than Albert, but worse, in my book, falls into that even rarer category of the hump who made NO effort to reclaim his image, even through the chessiest, most transparent PR ploys. (Bonds is the poster boy for this syndrome.) Simple, debatable unpopularity will hurt you, but not necessarily kill you, if it is deemed as somewhat occasional, and perhaps not the complete picture of the man, and if the player is viewed as regarding his unpopularity with some concern.

Albert's miserable MO was simply a lifestyle, and he told everyone to take it or leave it. This is in direct contrast to Dick Allen, whose "negative" qualities have been revealed, especially on bbf, as a matter of opinion and a question of whom you ask about them. He is a complex "bad egg", a debatable one, who also should get much more of a pass since he was a forthright, prideful black man who brooked no BS during a time when that was not a popular way for blacks to be. Albert came along 30 years later when this country's tolerance level and equanamity regarding black equality, while still a work in progress, was much higher than it was for Allen.

Though I may be naive, I believe that today's black athletes, even in the most crackerhead environments, pretty much need only adhere to the basic team concept expected of all athletes, and nearly all of his team's fans will restrict their concerns simply to how his performance stacks up. If it does stack up, cool. If not, he's gone, like any other player of any other color.

Or let me put it another way: Gather up a roomful of 100 of the biggest redneck sports fans you can find, and ask them all this question:

If your team has a choice between keeping one of two players, which will it be: The black star who's also basically a good, team-first, problem-free guy; or, the very popular, white guy who is good, but not nearly the player the black guy is.

My theory (again, call me naive): Close to all of those crackerheads, who are first and foremost diehard fans of their teams, will choose the black guy, if not ALL OF THEM.

In Dick Allen's time (and before) we definitely could not make that statement. Too bad, Albert: All it would have taken was a bit of an attitude adjustment (or at least, the perception of an EFFORT in that regard), and we could have been talking seriously about the Hall.

In the category of "My God, if only we'd seen more from this guy...", I don't think anyone comes close to lefthander Herbert Jude Score. Take a look at his first two seasons ('55 and '56), at the tender ages of 22 and 23. Apply any standard you like, be it old-school, traditional numbers or today's SABER stuff, and the conclusion will be the same. You will say, the possibilities for this unreal, once-a-generation talent were unlimited.

Until that untimely injury, early in '57, off the bat of Gil McDougald. Now, baseball history is filled with young pitching phenoms struck down by arm troubles, but what makes Score's case baffling, and almost unique, is that his injury, while significant, had nothing to do with his arm. Everyone at the time felt that, once his facial injuries were healed, there was no reason he couldn't resume dominating the league.

Everyone was wrong. While nearly everyone I've read who has spoken about it said that, beginning in '58, his stuff was every bit as nasty as ever, he never again approached his previous form. There was something else at work, the common theory being some sort of fear or tentativeness took over when Herb took the mound, perhaps a permanent fear of the batted ball.

Herb himself, while admitting that had to be a possibility, states to this day that any such fears were unknown to him, and if they existed, must have been so deepseatedly unconscious that there was never any way of addressing them.

To his credit, he went on to forge a legendary career (at least, among Chisox fans) as a wonderful, honest, inciteful, and best of all, bitter-free baseball announcer. He never grew tired or annoyed over the endless questions from fans and media about what happened, but simply was as baffled as the rest of them as to the answer. Here's to you, Herb!

Thanks for listening!

freak

[Gee Walker]

While we're on the topic of pitchers who lost it despite having a perfectly sound pitching arm, I bring up the case of Steve Blass. At the age of 30, he had a record of 100-67, pitching for a perennial contender. His ERA+ was good, his strikeout rate was acceptable, and his contol was also acceptable. Most of all, he didn't give up many home runs and from what I can figure from the stats, got a lot of ground-ball outs. He had just finished second in the Cy Young award voting in 1972. He didn't get overworked when at a young age, pitching his first 200 IP season at the age of 26.

And he lost his control. Completely. No arm problems or other injuries that could have affected his motion. In 1973 he walked 84 batters in 88.666 innings, resulting in an ERA of 9.85. After trying to regain his control in the minors, he made a one-game return in 1974, and never pitched in the majors again.

[Erik Bedard]

Tony Conigliaro anybody? Dizzy Dean? J.R. Richard?

[plask_stirlac]

Bostock was the most tragic one cut short, the Score of position players.

I don't even know how good Dazzy Vance would have been as a younger pitcher, but it could have been awesome.

[brett]

Spalding is a great case to consider. Though he played less than 10 years, he was worth more to his team than many pitchers who pitched 15+ years. Just based on ERA+ and innings pitched, he is the 16th most valuable pitcher in history, a hair ahead of Gibson and Hubbell (regular season only) and just behind Walsh and Brown. He is one of 19 pitchers to prevent over 100 games worth of runs above average.

If a player with less than 10 years produces a value that would put them on par with hall of famers with 15-18 seasons, they should probably get in.

[mtortolero]

Hal Trosky´s carrer was shortened by migraines headaches after he was hit in the head by a line drive during a batting practice in 1939, when he was 26 years old. Until that year his carrer HOF type but then he faded and never was the same.
Other case is Charlie Keller, who served in WWII in 1944 and in 1947 had a ruptured disc in his back injury that really hurt the rest of his carrer, that finnished in 1952.
Finally, probably Al Rosen could be the tipycal great but short carrer, with a delayed beggining and back problems and leg injuries in the principle and the end of a carrer that include an MVP in between of only seven seasons.

[Jason R. Maier]

Originally Posted by Erik Bedard

Tony Conigliaro anybody? Dizzy Dean? J.R. Richard?

3 very good names: Conigliaro would have done well as a slugger, Dean at the rate he was doing in his peak years (32-36) might have reached 300 wins (or gotten close to it). And JR Richard would have reached 3000 K's and at least 200 wins . . .