1973 Season Thread

[mac195]

Originally Posted by mwiggins

Stargell's had a pretty good defensive year so far. He's first in range factor, though he is 2nd in errors, in LF. And while his range factor ranking is probably more a function of the Thunder's pitching staff, he's rated Av range with an Ex arm, so he's not a defensive liability out there.

And Stargell is by far the best hitter, in terms of OPS+, among the candidates - other than Aaron. These are as of the last update on Lew's site, so they don't include last night's series. And it's only of the guys who were mentioned as MVP candidates. Guys like Grubb, Colbert, Perez, McCovey, and Mayberry would all be up among the leaders as well.

Stargell - 208
Aaron - 196
Jackson - 177
Cedeno - 148
North - 144
Rose - 142
Morgan - 135
Carew - 134

If the voting were today, I'd probably go with 1) Jackson, 2) Morgan, 3) Stargell, 4) Carew, 5) Aaron.

I don't know how you could justify ranking Morgan ahead of Carew, who leads him by 70 points of batting average, and in just about every other offensive category, not to mention the fact that he has played every game at second, while Morgan has DHed half the time.

[leecemark]

--I don't know about most offensive categories. In spite of Carew's 70 point advantage Morgan has the higher OBP. He has out homer Carew 15-3 and has a 44 to 5 SB advantage. They are almost dead even in RBI/runs. I'd give Carew a slight lead due to playing 2B everyday while Morgan DHs vs LHP, but its close to a coin flip between them. Morgan doesn't DH because he is a defensive liablity - he is actually slightly better than Carew with the glove - but because the Knights have defensive whiz Dick Green on the roster.

[mwiggins]

Originally Posted by mac195

I don't know how you could justify ranking Morgan ahead of Carew, who leads him by 70 points of batting average, and in just about every other offensive category, not to mention the fact that he has played every game at second, while Morgan has DHed half the time.

Forgot about Morgan's time at DH.

That would put him below Carew on my ballot. Offensively, I'd still take Morgan ahead of Carew at this point, though. Carew has the better BA, but Morgan still has a better OBP and has hit for a lot more power. Not to mention his 44 steals.

Morgan's in a little better park for lefties, but the difference isn't that much. And the Knights have played the Angels 12 times, vs. 9 for the Hard Cider, which also is a point in Carew's favor.

In any case, it's Jackson's MVP to lose at this point IMO.

[mac195]

Runs created are a good measure of overall offensive contribution.

Carew 80.8, 6.5 per 27 outs

Morgan 76.0, 6.4 per 27 outs

So it is pretty close, with the slight advantage going to Carew even before park adjustment. But come on, you can't give Morgan credit for the defensive contribution he might have made, had he played 2B full time. That's nuts.

a 44 to 5 SB advantage

Morgan has been caught stealing 17 times. As I'm sure you are aware, a runner needs to reach a SB success rate of about two thirds just to break even. That means Morgan is only about 3 steals to the positive side. Had he been unsuccessful 4 more times (40-21) he would have been better off never attempting a steal. His advantage in this area over Carew, who has stolen 5 of 6 times successfully, is trivial.

[mwiggins]

Top 20 ERA+

1. Jon Matlack, Spikes: 13-6, 166 IP, 175 ERA+
2. Ron Schueler, Knights: 8-1, 125 IP, 152 ERA+
3. Fergie Jenkins, Legends: 13-7, 179 IP, 152 ERA+
4. Andy Messersmith, Iron: 13-7, 196 IP, 151 ERA+
5. Tom Seaver, Legends: 15-8, 205 IP, 149 ERA+
6. Jim Barr, Dust Bunnies: 12-5, 130 IP, 143 ERA+
7. Bert Blyleven, Spikes: 15-9, 194 IP, 143 ERA+
8. Carl Morton, Spikes: 11-4, 146 IP, 137 ERA+
9. Ron Bryant, Thunder: 9-8, 152 IP, 136 ERA+
10. Nolan Ryan, Badgers: 10-10, 200 IP, 134 ERA+
11. Bill Singer, Gamblers: 11-6, 148 IP, 133 ERA+
12. Bill Lee, Hard Cider: 14-4, 171 IP, 129 ERA+
13. Don Sutton, Dust Bunnies: 10-9, 185 IP, 128 ERA+
14. Tom Bradley, Gamblers: 7-7, 127 IP, 127 ERA+
15. Rick Reuschel, Wranglers: 9-10, 150 IP, 126 ERA+
16. Luis Tiant, Diablos: 9-11, 170 IP, 125 ERA+
17. Bob Gibson, Shoeless Joes: 10-7, 140 IP, 125 ERA+
18. Burt Hooton, Legends: 14-7, 169 IP, 124 ERA+
19. Doc Medich, Hard Cider: 14-6, 171 IP, 122 ERA+
20. Clyde Wright, Badgers: 9-10, 141 IP, 119 ERA+

Team ERA+

1. Spikes - 125
2. Legends - 124
3. Hard Cider - 121
4. Gamblers - 116
5. Dust Bunnies - 110
6. Iron - 110
7. Knights - 110
8. Badgers - 107
9. Diablos - 106
10. Shoeless Joes - 102
11. Wranglers - 98
12. Thunder - 97
13. Cloverleafs - 92
14. Gold Sox - 88
15. Skipjacks- 87
16. Angels - 63

Even if he continues to lead in ERA+ by a good margin, pitching in a 5-man rotation should keep Matlack's wins and IP totals low enough that he won't be able to win the Cy Young. Looks like a log jam between Seaver, Messersmith, Jenkins, and Blyleven - with Lee as a wild card due to his great W-L record.

At this point, I'd go with Seaver barely over Messersmith due to Seaver's much better WHIP and K/BB - and the fact that he has small leads in wins, innings, quality starts, and complete games over Messersmith.

[catcher24]

Really too bad Fergie Jenkins missed three starts in April due to an injury. If not, he could realistically be expected to have 15 or 16 wins and might grab another Cy Young. Blyleven has been absolutely lights out for the past month or more, though. If he keeps performing at that level through the end of the season, he or Seaver will likely get my vote.

[leecemark]

--The Hard Cider have run their winning streak to 10, pulling 18 ahead in their division and 11 ahead in the race for the bye. I thought the Cider might finally lose their strangle hold on the division this year, but instead it is shaping up to be one of the best years in their illustrious history. Hats off to you, Mac.
--The Dust Bunnies continue their surge in pursuit of a playoff bid. The are now 3 games over .500 and only 3 back of the Wranglers. A rivalry seems to be developing there, as a bench clearing brawl broke out in tonight's series.
--The Legends swept the Spikes tonight, allowing the Iron to move 6 up in the Chadwick race. Lew did close some ground on the Iron in the race for the bye.

[J W]

Please farm out Boots Day and bring up Felipe Alou:

Lineup vs. RHP
1) RF - Crawford* (M Alou* 10%)
2) LF - Yastrzemski* (Brye)
3) 1B - Torre (F Alou 5%)
4) DH - Powell* (Sanguillen 5%)
5) 2B - Helms (#Alomar 10%)
6) 3B - Goodson* (McRae)
7) C - Sanguillen (Hundley 30%)
8) CF - F Alou (Brye 25%)
9) SS - Johnson (#Alomar)

PH vR - M Alou*
PH vL - McRae


Lineup vs. LHP
1) RF - M Alou* (Crawford*)
2) CF - Brye (F Alou)
3) LF - Yastrzemski* (Crawford* 25%)
4) 1B - Torre (Powell*)
5) 3B - McRae (Goodson*)
6) DH - Sanguillen (Powell* 15%, Crawford* 15%, Goodson* 10%)
7) C - Hundley (Sanguillen 40%)
8) 2B - Helms (#Alomar)
9) SS - #Alomar (Johnson)

PH vR - Goodson*
PH vL - Goodson*

Thanks

[catcher24]

--The Dust Bunnies continue their surge in pursuit of a playoff bid. The are now 3 games over .500 and only 3 back of the Wranglers. A rivalry seems to be developing there, as a bench clearing brawl broke out in tonight's series.

The Wranglers were looking pretty good for the Robinson wild card berth just prior to the all star break. A 7-11 record since then, combined with the Dust Bunnies going 12-6 since then, have sure changed that around! That brawl cost the Bunnies their middle reliever Bob Johnson for 32 days, too.

[mac195]

Smith has been insane for the Bunnies since the trade... 1.223 OPS, 46.9 RC in 36 games.

[dust bunnies]

Please put Bob Johnson on the DL and activate Eddie Bane. Then please rearrange my pitching rotations as follows:

Pitching Strict Mode

SP1 Don Sutton
SP2 Jim Barr
SP3 Doyle Alexander
SP4 Pat Dobson
SP5 Clay Kirby STRICT

Spot Starter Rich Hand Fritz Peterson
Mop-Up Bill Campbell Rich Hand
Long Relief Don Carrithers Rich Hand
LH Set-Up Fritz Peterson Frank Linzy
RH Set-Up Bill Campbell Eddie Bane
Closer Pedro Borbon

[dust bunnies]

I'm having trouble with Usage Reports for traded players. Frank Duffy, whom I acquired, is listed on the Web Page, both under Dust Bunnies and under Usage Report, as having usage at 96%. Does that include his previous usage before the trade. On those two reports, players who I traded away, such as Cepada, are not listed under Dust Bunnies. I can't believe he's at 96% solely on the DB.

Thanks.

[mwiggins]

Originally Posted by dust bunnies

I'm having trouble with Usage Reports for traded players. Frank Duffy, whom I acquired, is listed on the Web Page, both under Dust Bunnies and under Usage Report, as having usage at 96%. Does that include his previous usage before the trade. On those two reports, players who I traded away, such as Cepada, are not listed under Dust Bunnies. I can't believe he's at 96% solely on the DB.

Thanks.

The 96% is for both the Bunnies and the Diablos. Both usage reports show the players full usage, not just for that particular team.

[J W]

The Skipjacks are going to be shopping their original franchise player Carl Yastrzemski this offseason. This is a preliminary heads up. We think a change of ballpark will do wonders for Yaz in '74 and his real life OPS+ is 140 with several more productive seasons after that. As an original franchise player, Yaz's contract will assume the standard $250k raise/year until you wish to release him.

The Skipjacks do want help for 1974-75, so a draft pick is not necessary.

[porcupine84]

Thanks Catcher24.

I'll add the website to my favorites list. I'll do some studying! That's always fun in regards to baseball.


Later.

John

[leecemark]

--The Dust Bunnies continue their new found winning ways, sweeping the Cloverleafs to pull within 2 in the WC race. Don Sutton tossed another shutout, a 2 hit gem. It wasn't all good news for the DB's though as the offensive sparkplug of their resurgence, Reggie Smith, went down for a week. Nothing noteworthy in the other races.

[leecemark]

--Couple guys who need some action on their usage issues soon; Jim Ray adn Pepe Frias. Full usage attached.

[catcher24]

Originally Posted by dust bunnies

I'm having trouble with Usage Reports for traded players. Frank Duffy, whom I acquired, is listed on the Web Page, both under Dust Bunnies and under Usage Report, as having usage at 96%. Does that include his previous usage before the trade. On those two reports, players who I traded away, such as Cepada, are not listed under Dust Bunnies. I can't believe he's at 96% solely on the DB.

Thanks.

Just to refresh everyone's memory, from Post #221 in this thread:

You can check two locations that will give the total combined usage for a player appearing with more than one team:
1. Click on the Usage Report under the SEASON heading in the left hand bar and scroll down to your team, OR
2. Click on your team name under the TEAMS heading in the left bar, then click the Player Usage report in upper left hand corner.

Accessing either of those reports gives the total usage for the year for the player. That should help those who do not have the benefit of owning the Diamond Mind game.

NOTE: If you access player usage via the Team Stats Page (page with all of the small team logos on it), this report does not include the entire season; it only includes usage with that one team.

[catcher24]

The Wranglers have really been struggling since the all star break and I don't seem to be able to figure out how to stop the plunge....

[Sockeye]

Lineup vs RHP

SS: Jerry Terrell (Menke 45)
RF: Leron Lee (Torres 35)
C: Fred Kendall (Taylor 20)
3B: Dave Nelson (Driessen 20)
DH: Rusty Torres (Brown 10)
CF: Ron Woods (Bradford 30)
LF: Rico Carty (Mota 20)
2B: Glenn Beckert (Nelson 30)
1B: Jerry Hairston (Brown 45)
PH vs RHP: Hickman, Mota
PH vs LHP: Hopkins, Taylor, Mota

Lineup vs LHP
DH: Rusty Torres (Lee 40)
RF: Leron Lee (Torres 35)
C: Fred Kendall (Taylor 20)
CF: Ron Woods (Bradford 30)
2B: Dave Nelson (Beckert 40)
LF: Rico Carty (Mota 25)
SS: Jerry Terrell (Nelson 25)
3B: Dan Driessen (Menke 45)
1B: Gail Hopkins (Brown 30, Hickman 25)
PH vs RHP: Hairston, Hickman, Mota
PH vs LHP: Mota, Hickman

[Erik Bedard]

Farm out Ray, give his roles to Odom, call up Maxvill with no roles.

[J W]

With the #2 pick in the 1974 draft, the Skipjacks select...

[mwiggins]

Quick update to ERA+. Sutton moving rapidly up the list, and into the Cy Young race.

1. Matlack, Spikes: 13-7, 169 IP, 170 ERA+
2. Schueler, Knights: 9-1, 133 IP, 162 ERA+
3. Jenkins, Legends: 14-7, 186 IP, 159 ERA+
4. Seaver, Legends: 16-9, 222 IP, 154 ERA+
5. Barr, Dust Bunnies: 13-5, 139 IP, 151 ERA+
6. Blyleven, Spikes: 16-9, 203 IP, 148 ERA+
7. Messersmith, Iron: 13-9, 206 IP, 144 ERA+
8. Bradley, Gamblers: 9-7, 145 IP, 143 ERA+
9. Sutton, Dust Bunnies: 11-9, 194 IP, 136 ERA+
10. Ryan, Badgers: 10-10, 205 IP, 135 ERA+

[leecemark]

--The Dust Bunnies continue to surge, sweeping the Knights to run their winning streak to 7. They didn't pick up any ground on the Wranglers, who have gotten things turned around with a 5 game streak of their own, but they are only 6 out of the division lead now. With the Hard Cider having virtually lokced up the bye its a 3 team race for the other 2 spots. The Iron hold a 4 game lead for the bye and a 5 game lead in the divison in the Ruth League, where the 3 playoff teams appear set already.

[mac195]

Some changes for the next series...

Lineup vs RHP
1 RF Scheinblum (Rettenmund)
2 2B Carew (Kubiak)
3 1B Fairly (Breeden)
4 LF Robinson (Scheinblum)
5 DH Blomberg (Breeden)
6 SS Concepcion (Kubiak)
7 C Simmons (Sims)
8 CF Baker (Rettenmund)
9 3B Nettles (Kubiak)
PH: Greive, Rettenmund, Breeden