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Thread: Most common MLB final score

  1. #1
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    Most common MLB final score

    I don't know if this has been covered in other threads and I don't know the answer to this but is there any data on what is the most common final score in MLB?

    My personal guess is 5-2.

  2. #2
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  3. #3

    My guess...

    With teams averaging between 4 and 5 runs per game and a 4-4 game impossible to come by, I am going to go with 5-4 as the most common score, followed by 5-3, 6-4, 4-3 etc... Perhaps in a lower run environment era it would be 4-3.
    vr, Xei
    Author of Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft Software.
    http://www.fantasyinfocentral.com/ml...ware/index.php

    Author of DodgerSims Blog
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  4. #4
    AutographCollector nailed it.

    I queried all of the Retrosheet gamelogs from 1900-2006. Here are the 10 most common scores in order of frequency...

    3-2
    4-3
    2-1
    5-4
    4-2
    3-1
    5-3
    6-5
    5-2
    4-1

    The reason Xeifrank's logic doesn't work ), is that run scoring does not follow a normal distribution. In a 5 run/game environment, neither 5 nor 4 are the most common number of runs scored. The reason is that you can't score less than zero, but you can certainly score more than 10.

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dougman59 View Post
    I don't know if this has been covered in other threads and I don't know the answer to this but is there any data on what is the most common final score in MLB?

    My personal guess is 5-2.
    From 1876 -2007:

    Code:
    Winning      Losing
     Score        Score         Count
    ==================================
       3            2           10487
       4            3           10076
       2            1            8553
       5            4            7934
       4            2            6710
       3            1            6084
       5            3            5826
       6            5            5788
       5            2            5500
       4            1            5326
       6            3            4526
       1            0            4354
       6            4            4318
       5            1            4302
       6            2            4179
       2            0            3881
       7            6            3746
       3            0            3725
       7            3            3461
       6            1            3291
       7            4            3282
       4            0            3116
       7            2            3067
       7            5            2960
       5            0            2539
    Dave Kent

  6. #6
    Dave, can you show since 1919, and since 1993?

  7. #7
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    Clearly...bullpens are extremely important if that distribution holds in the bullpen era...seems more common that games are close than that they are not...more common by quite a lot.

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tango Tiger View Post
    Dave, can you show since 1919, and since 1993?
    Code:
    Since 1919:
    
    Winning      Losing
     Score        Score         Count
    ==================================
       3            2            8387
       4            3            8187
       2            1            6713
       5            4            6468
       4            2            5326
       3            1            4834
       5            3            4731
       6            5            4723
       5            2            4420
       4            1            4209
       6            3            3598
       6            4            3493
       5            1            3369
       6            2            3284
       1            0            3171
       7            6            3052
       2            0            2888
       3            0            2830
       7            3            2753
       7            4            2597
       6            1            2590
       7            2            2433
       4            0            2395
       7            5            2346
       5            0            1945
    Code:
    Since 1933:
       
    Winning      Losing
     Score        Score         Count
    ==================================
       3            2            7487
       4            3            7311
       2            1            6018
       5            4            5714
       4            2            4771
       3            1            4325
       5            3            4244
       6            5            4138
       5            2            3959
       4            1            3771
       6            3            3219
       6            4            3096
       5            1            3010
       6            2            2903
       1            0            2841
       7            6            2666
       2            0            2599
       3            0            2558
       7            3            2448
       7            4            2297
       6            1            2293
       4            0            2187
       7            2            2142
       7            5            2092
       7            1            1728
    Dave Kent

  9. #9
    Since 1993...

    Code:
    win  lose    count(*)    freq%
    4	3	1725	4.969606177
    3	2	1669	4.808274034
    5	4	1530	4.407824609
    2	1	1262	3.63573507
    4	2	1185	3.413903374
    6	5	1171	3.373570338
    5	3	1157	3.333237302
    5	2	994	2.86364553
    3	1	961	2.768574803
    6	3	931	2.68214687
    4	1	875	2.520814727
    6	4	872	2.512171934
    7	6	829	2.388291896
    6	2	785	2.261530927
    5	1	716	2.06274668
    7	4	695	2.002247126
    7	3	673	1.938866642
    7	5	612	1.763129844
    6	1	578	1.665178186
    7	2	577	1.662297254
    8	3	501	1.44334649
    2	0	492	1.41741811
    3	0	492	1.41741811
    1	0	491	1.414537178
    Last edited by weskelton; 09-05-2008 at 12:38 PM.

  10. #10
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    Score Frequency by Decade (1900-2007)

    Code:
    Rank| 1900  1910  1920  1930  1940  1950  1960  1970  1980  1990  2000
    ----|-----------------------------------------------------------------
      1 |  2-1   3-2   3-2   4-3   3-2   3-2   3-2   3-2   3-2   3-2   4-3
      2 |  3-2   2-1   4-3   3-2   4-3   4-3   4-3   4-3   4-3   4-3   3-2
      3 |  4-3   4-3   5-4   5-4   2-1   2-1   2-1   2-1   5-4   5-4   5-4
      4 |  1-0   1-0   2-1   2-1   5-4   5-4   5-4   5-4   2-1   2-1   2-1
      5 |  3-1   5-4   6-5   6-5   4-2   4-2   3-1   4-2   4-2   4-2   4-2
      6 |  4-2   4-2   4-2   4-2   3-1   3-1   4-2   3-1   5-3   5-3   6-5
      7 |  5-4   3-1   5-3   5-3   4-1   6-5   5-3   5-3   3-1   6-5   5-3
      8 |  2-0   4-1   5-2   3-1   6-5   5-2   4-1   6-5   5-2   5-2   5-2
      9 |  4-1   2-0   3-1   4-1   5-2   5-3   1-0   5-2   6-5   4-1   3-1
     10 |  3-0   5-3   4-1   5-2   1-0   4-1   5-2   4-1   4-1   3-1   6-3
     11 |  5-2   5-2   7-6   6-4   5-3   6-3   6-5   1-0   6-4   6-3   6-4
     12 |  5-3   3-0   6-2   7-6   5-1   6-4   2-0   5-1   6-3   6-4   4-1
     13 |  5-1   6-5   6-4   6-3   6-3   6-2   5-1   3-0   5-1   6-2   7-6
     14 |  6-5   5-1   6-3   6-2   2-0   5-1   3-0   6-3   6-2   7-6   6-2
     15 |  6-3   6-2   5-1   5-1   6-2   1-0   6-3   2-0   2-0   5-1   5-1
     16 |  4-0   4-0   7-3   7-3   3-0   2-0   6-4   6-4   1-0   7-3   7-4
     17 |  6-2   6-3   1-0   1-0   6-4   7-6   4-0   6-2   7-6   7-4   7-3
     18 |  6-4   6-1   7-4   7-2   4-0   3-0   6-2   4-0   7-3   7-5   6-1
     19 |  6-1   6-4   6-1   3-0   7-6   7-3   6-1   6-1   6-1   1-0   7-5
     20 |  5-0   5-0   7-2   7-4   7-3   7-4   7-6   7-3   3-0   7-2   7-2
     21 |  7-4   7-6   2-0   7-5   7-4   6-1   7-3   7-6   7-2   6-1   3-0
     22 |  7-2   7-2   8-7   8-7   6-1   7-5   5-0   7-4   7-4   3-0   8-4
     23 |  7-3   7-4   3-0   2-0   5-0   4-0   7-4   7-2   4-0   2-0   1-0
     24 |  6-0   7-3   7-5   6-1   7-5   7-2   7-2   5-0   7-5   8-3   2-0
     25 |  7-1   7-1   8-3   8-4   7-2   5-0   7-5   7-1   5-0   8-7   8-3
    Dave Kent

  11. #11

    2008

    What is it for 2008?
    Thanks.
    vr, Xei
    Author of Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft Software.
    http://www.fantasyinfocentral.com/ml...ware/index.php

    Author of DodgerSims Blog
    http://DodgerSims.blogspot.com/

  12. #12
    Great job guys. Nice presentation Dave!

    Xei: what's the point of knowing 2008? The 2000s is very similar to 1930s. Clearly 2008 will be very similar to the 1980s, 1990s or 2000s, and tehre's little difference in those 3 decades.

  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by SABR Matt View Post
    Clearly...bullpens are extremely important if that distribution holds in the bullpen era...seems more common that games are close than that they are not...more common by quite a lot.
    Matt,

    Here's a breakdown of the distribution by margin of victory. I'm comparing 1900- to the "bullpen era", which I tagged at 1970+. While there may be a difference in how the margins are arrived at, there's actually not a great difference in the frequency of the margins.

    Code:
    	Since 1900	Since 1970	
    margin	freq%	cum%	freq%	cum%
    1	30.27	30.27	29.79	29.79
    2	18.18	48.45	18.54	48.33
    3	14.51	62.95	14.78	63.11
    4	10.99	73.94	11.19	74.3
    5	 8.02	81.96	 8.07	82.37
    6	 5.66	87.62	 5.75	88.12
    7	 3.98	91.6	 4.03	92.15
    8	 2.83	94.42	 2.82	94.97
    9	 1.83	96.25	 1.82	96.79
    10	 1.23	97.47	 1.22	98
    11	 0.75	98.22	 0.77	98.77
    12	 0.51	98.73	 0.48	99.25

  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by Tango Tiger View Post
    Great job guys. Nice presentation Dave!

    Xei: what's the point of knowing 2008? The 2000s is very similar to 1930s. Clearly 2008 will be very similar to the 1980s, 1990s or 2000s, and tehre's little difference in those 3 decades.
    I would like to know for trivia purposes. That ok?
    vr, Xei
    Author of Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft Software.
    http://www.fantasyinfocentral.com/ml...ware/index.php

    Author of DodgerSims Blog
    http://DodgerSims.blogspot.com/

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by weskelton View Post
    AutographCollector nailed it.
    Rock on! Thanks.

  16. #16

    To wrgptfan/Dave

    How does it break down for the Post-World War Two Era: 1946-2007?

  17. #17
    Good stuff -- how about just a frequency table of runs scored (by individual teams, not combined) since 1993?

  18. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by philliesfiend55 View Post
    How does it break down for the Post-World War Two Era: 1946-2007?
    Code:
    1946-2007:
       
    Winning      Losing
     Score        Score         Count
    ==================================
       3            2            6595
       4            3            6454
       2            1            5298
       5            4            5060
       4            2            4241
       3            1            3834
       5            3            3793
       6            5            3623
       5            2            3521
       4            1            3322
       6            3            2857
       6            4            2741
       5            1            2639
       6            2            2559
       1            0            2473
       7            6            2319
       2            0            2298
       3            0            2247
       7            3            2174
       6            1            2055
       7            4            2032
       4            0            1917
       7            2            1889
       7            5            1844
       7            1            1520
    Dave Kent

  19. #19
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    So, there's a possible save-style high-leverage finish in roughly 63% of games...that's a rather big deal.

  20. #20
    Any update the number of 3-2 games through 2008?

  21. #21
    Quote Originally Posted by KingSwisher View Post
    Any update the number of 3-2 games through 2008?
    132 games finished 3-2 in 2008.
    Leaders:
    Giants won 10 and Padres lost 9.

  22. #22
    Quote Originally Posted by josh24 View Post
    132 games finished 3-2 in 2008.
    Leaders:
    Giants won 10 and Padres lost 9.
    Thank you, josh24.

  23. #23
    Quote Originally Posted by KingSwisher View Post
    Thank you, josh24.
    No problem.

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