When will Nomar make the Hall of Fame

[BoSox Rule]

When do you think Nomar Garciaparra make the Hall of Fame?

Career Accomplishments

1997 American League Rookie of the Year
1998 American League Most Valuable Player: Runner-up
Rookie record for HR by a SS (30)
'99 Batting Title: .357 (190/532)
'00 Batting Title: .372 (197/529)
Record for 2B by a SS (56)
.327 Career BA


Career projections through age 40

.327 BA
2399 Hits
1320 Runs Scored
540 2B
94 3B
328 HR
1291 RBI
4098 Total Bases
.374 OBP
.561 SLG%
.935 OPS


That is by a SS, so I'd say 1st ballot. Plus, those are only projections so he could much better. But if injuries occur, worse.

[BoSox Rule]

Can a mod change 5th-10th ballot to 8th-10th ballot. Thanks.

[tearforamariner]

Well I changed it for you BoSox Rule. I'd say he's going in 1st ballot, if for nothing else so I can say, "No-mah is a Hall of Fame-a"

[BoSox Rule]

Who voted for he won't make it? They didn't even give a reason. It's a pretty bold prediction, too.

[tearforamariner]

Originally posted by BoSox Rule
Who voted for he won't make it? They didn't even give a reason. It's a pretty bold prediction, too.

Wasn't me BoSox.

[KenFougere]

Originally posted by BoSox Rule
When do you think Nomar Garciaparra make the Hall of Fame?

Career Accomplishments

1997 American League Rookie of the Year
1998 American League Most Valuable Player: Runner-up
Rookie record for HR by a SS (30)
'99 Batting Title: .357 (190/532)
'00 Batting Title: .372 (197/529)
Record for 2B by a SS (56)
.327 Career BA


Career projections through age 40

.327 BA
2399 Hits
1320 Runs Scored
540 2B
94 3B
328 HR
1291 RBI
4098 Total Bases
.374 OBP
.561 SLG%
.935 OPS


That is by a SS, so I'd say 1st ballot. Plus, those are only projections so he could much better. But if injuries occur, worse.
Why such a low projection on his hit total? :confused:

[tearforamariner]

Originally posted by KenFougere
Why such a low projection on his hit total? :confused:

BoSox Rule doesn't realize that Nomar is immortal and will collect at least 5000 hits, right Ken?

[BoSox Rule]

I was a little surprised with the low number too.

[tearforamariner]

Originally posted by BoSox Rule
I was a little surprised with the low number too.

Well, Nomar's career numbers were hurt, partially, because of the 2000 season.

[BoSox Rule]

Correction: 2001 Season :D

[J W]

I find those numbers surprisingly low as well, especially considering he had a fast start. His clip is about 1000 hits per 3000 ABs and he started at age 22.

I tentatively say "first ballot"... because as you know, it won't take much dropoff for people to question his candidacy and it could happen soon. Ya never know.

[BoSox Rule]

Maybe I miscalculated the projections, or maybe 2001 killed him. Anyone else wanna calculate the projections.

[KenFougere]

Originally posted by BoSox Rule
Maybe I miscalculated the projections, or maybe 2001 killed him. Anyone else wanna calculate the projections.

I just think you can't plan on someone being injured throughout his career. I mean, who breaks their wrist every three years? Know what I mean?
I'd be shocked if Nomar retired with less than 3400 hits if he plays an average of 150 games a year ... ;)

[J W]

...but some players do get injured every three years, Ken. More often players suffer a major injury and are never the same again. How many Hall of Fame careers would there be today if it weren't for injuries? At least double, I'd say.

[KenFougere]

Originally posted by J W
...but some players do get injured every three years, Ken. More often players suffer a major injury and are never the same again. How many Hall of Fame careers would there be today if it weren't for injuries? At least double, I'd say.

Yes, some, but I don't think the majority of players are injured to the extent of being on the DL for months at a time every three years or so. That's not what I've seen over the years, at least on the Sox anyway...

Well, in 15 years or so, we'll both know for sure... ;)

[tearforamariner]

My research says that Nomar averages about 200 hits for 150 games. If he can keep healthy and keep this pace, he will have over 3,000 hits by the time he's 40.

[Etheridge2]

Originally posted by KenFougere
Why such a low projection on his hit total? :confused:

I calced it as follows Nomar ahs averaged 1.34 hits per game played in his career entering today..

Should he maintain that pace through age 40 (a tough thing to do) and average 150 Games played per year he should end up with 2010 more hits (that is in the next 10 years) added to his total of 1172 plus 64 more this year to maintain his pace that is
2010+
1172+
64+
3246 hits for his career so I'm not sure if BoSox was using a decline in production related to age or factoring in injury or what but it was a rather low projection..

If Nomar's projections are accurate he is first ballot as it is he could drop a notch or two and still be first ballot he isn't exactly iron glad in at the moment but he is only 1-2 more MVP caliber seasons from being a lock regardless of decline...

[BoSox Rule]

I have no idea why I got such a low number, maybe I punched in the wrong number or something. I still say 1st Ballot.

[The Commissioner]

I see this as being really one of those "either/or" questions. If Nomar stays healthy he should become a first ballot Hall of Famer. If he gets hurt and can't continue to produce, he may not make it at all.

[Zito75]

He'll never stay healthy. He breaks something almost as frequently as my 94 year old grandma.

[A Satch In Time Whiffs Nine]

He breaks something almost as frequently as my 94 year old grandma.

What has Nomar "broken" in the past?

[Brad Harris]

It's too early for this kind of speculation on Garciaparra's Hall chances. Too many factors involved, too little playing time.

If Alex Rodriguez retired at the end of the season, I'd be a proponent for waiving the 10-year requirement and letting A-Rod on the ballot; he'd get my vote for the Hall at this point in time.

I can't say the same for Nomar.

By the time Garciaparra hangs it up for real? Who knows? My gut tells me, however, he'll make it sometime on the BBWAA ballot. If the remainder of his career follows a normal (and healthy) progression, he'd get my vote on the first ballot (barring a flood of better candidates on the ballot that year, of course).

[Sandman]

He's still got a long way to go, and I think he's got a shot at 3,000 hits to go with decent RBI / Runs scored and AVG numbers. Depending on how many more times he's hurt over the course of his career, and who the Red Sox obtain to hit around him (for protection, to drive in, and to drive him in) I can see him going in 1st 2nd or 3rd time.

[Sandman]

Originally posted by Zito75
He'll never stay healthy. He breaks something almost as frequently as my 94 year old grandma.
......all he had was a wrist injury, and judging by the passed two seasons, that's long gone.

[Cougar]

If that projection holds up, any SS with 300+ HR and a .327 BA is a first ballot guy.

That projection is awfully unreliable though...it's a straight line, and a normal career will typically have declining BA's as a player moves through his thirties.

I think I concur that it's too soon to tell, but indications are good.

[NOMAR22]

Why such a low projection on his hit total? :confused:

Maybe because he gets injured to much? I don't think he has a chance to make it the way his career is going. He would need to hit 325 HRS,Avg of .310 or more,2,500 hits,450 2B,1,250 runs to even have a chance.

But hey if some wacky people think Johan Olerud has chance, Nomar has a great chance.lol

[RedSoxVT92]

Maybe because he gets injured to much? I don't think he has a chance to make it the way his career is going. He would need to hit 325 HRS,Avg of .310 or more,2,500 hits,450 2B,1,250 runs to even have a chance.

But hey if some wacky people think Johan Olerud has chance, Nomar has a great chance.lol

The reason for this is because those threads were from 2003.Those predictions were from around 3 years ago. Nomar now has a slimer chance unless he gets healthy and really produces. It will be harder to get in now. But he could have 9 or 10 more years ahead of him. (If hes healthy) But even at that it will be tough.

[Brad Harris]

Nomar has no shot at the Hall now. I was skeptical of his chances in 2003, but now...? He's blown any realistic chance he has.

You're now looking at a first baseman who can't hit well enough to be one of the best in the league and who will be playing half his games in a pitcher's park this year, a guy in his thirties who has a history of major injuries and who doesn't have the first-half stats on which he needs to build. In other words, any case he makes is 99% uphill from where he's at and this isn't the age to start building your resume, it's the age at which one should be cementing it.

Nomar's window of opportunity has slammed shut.

[chrismarullo]

I doubt he'll play much more as a SS.

[ElHalo]

Better question: Who, three years ago, would have said that Jeter was a stone lock for the Hall and Nomar was a no way? Even as a Yankee fan I didn't think that would be the case.

[BoSox Rule]

Damn. This just goes to show how much can change. Who knew Nomar wouldn't a lock at that point in time? A shortstop with a .900 OPS.

[Cougar]

You know, Nomar's had a few down years, but he's still a shortstop with superb power numbers and a .320 career BA.

He's got 191 HR and 1395 hits going into 2006. He's still only 32 years old. Imagine he stumbles through 5 years as a pretty ordinary player (say .280, 12, 60), maybe a part timer at the end.

He finishes with 2000+ hits, 250-odd HR, and a BA well above .320. Will you keep a guy like that out of the Hall -- if he played the majority of his career at SS. Not to mention the ROY, the two batting titles, etc.

Nomar's Hall journey is much more uphill than it once was, but it's not quite as bleak as we're painting it to be.