2010 Projection Systems

[Domenic]

Replacement Level's 2010 CAIRO projections can be found here (http://www.replacementlevel.com/stuff/sg/2010nyacairo.html). This explanation is offered, as well:


I am still in the process of inspecting all the projections to make sure they look right, but hope to release the first set of CAIRO projections for everyone early next week.

A few notes:

I haven’t done any adjusting for playing time/role changes. This is why I’m showing Phil Hughes as a reliever right now. It doesn’t mean I think he should be a reliever. That’s the kind of stuff I’ll be working on correcting as we move through the offseason. If you want a quick and dirty estimate for a start->relief conversion, figure 20%. So a starter moved to the pen will generally have an RA of about 80% of his starter RA. If you move a reliever to the rotation, his RA will generally be about 120% times his relief RA.

I haven’t run my defensive projections yet.

Also, pitching projections are based on 2009 defense, so that will change based on whatever I get when I run my defensive projections as well as how the roster changes.

This is the first (of many, I presume) analyses that SG will run, but I find it interesting to peruse nonetheless.

[Derek Jeter]

Wow those are some pretty bad numbers, if we play like that it'll be a rough season.

[Domenic]

Selected Bill James Projections (Batters)

Melky Cabrera (http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4022&position=OF)
.278/.341/.406, 63 R, 23 2B, 2 3B, 11 HR, 62 RBI, 10 SB, .330 wOBA

Robinson Cano (http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3269&position=2B)
.309/.347/.489, 89 R, 46 2B, 3 3B, 20 HR, 87 RBI, 4 SB, .359 wOBA

Francisco Cervelli (http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=5275&position=C)
.280/.326/.385, 20 R, 8 2B, 0 3B, 3 HR, 19 RBI, 0 SB, .315 wOBA

Brett Gardner (http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=9927&position=OF)
.277/.368/.375, 63 R, 11 2B, 6 3B, 3 HR, 28 RBI, 36 SB, .347 wOBA

Austin Jackson (http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=paJ05026&position=OF)
.294/.356/.411, 40 R, 15 2B, 3 3B, 4 HR, 37 RBI, 14 SB, .345 wOBA

Derek Jeter (http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=826&position=SS)
.317/.388/.444, 103 R, 31 2B, 2 3B, 15 HR, 72 RBI, 20 SB, .366 wOBA

Jorge Posada (http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=841&position=C)
.276/.372/.467, 59 R, 26 2B, 0 3B, 18 HR, 74 RBI, 1 SB, .365 wOBA

Alex Rodriguez (http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1274&position=3B/SS)
.294/.400/.550, 104 R, 26 2B, 1 3B, 37 HR, 113 RBI, 15 SB, .406 wOBA

Nick Swisher (http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4599&position=1B/OF)
.247/.365/.467, 85 R, 32 2B, 1 3B, 26 HR, 80 RBI, 1 SB, .362 wOBA

Mark Teixeira (http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1281&position=1B)
.300/.395/.559, 101 R, 42 2B, 2 3B, 36 HR, 101 RBI, 2 SB, .406 wOBA

[Domenic]

Selected Bill James Projections (Pitchers)

Alfredo Aceves (http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=5164&position=P)
5-3, 76 IP, 71 H, 17 BB, 58 BB, 3.55 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 4.27 FIP

A.J. Burnett (http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=512&position=P)
15-10, 223 IP, 205 H, 90 BB, 217 K, 3.75 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 3.85 FIP

Joba Chamberlain (http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2692&position=P)
11-8, 176 IP, 167 H, 77 BB, 190 K, 3.94 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 3.73 FIP

Phil Hughes (http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=7450&position=P)
9-5, 121 IP, 110 H, 41 BB, 122 K, 3.27 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 3.35 FIP

Damaso Marte (http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=247&position=P)
3-2, 43 IP, 37 H, 20 BB, 46 K, 3.56 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 3.70 FIP

Mariano Rivera (http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=844&position=P)
5-2, 68 IP, 55 H, 12 BB, 66 K, 2.12 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 2.58 FIP

David Robertson (http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=8241&position=P)
4-1, 45 IP, 34 H, 23 BB, 63 K, 2.60 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 2.47 FIP

CC Sabathia (http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=404&position=P)
18-9, 239 IP, 224 H, 67 BB, 202 K, 3.40 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 3.44 FIP

[Domenic]

Curtis Granderson

CAIRO - .257/.338/.468, 101 R, 27 2B, 12 3B, 25 HR, 70 RBI, 19 SB, .348 wOBA
James - .275/.353/.491, 106 R, 30 2B, 11 3B, 27 HR, 76 RBI, 17 SB, .366 wOBA

Here's hoping James is closer . . .

[Evangelion]

I don't known. I believe Granderson will top the 30 HR's from last year playing 81 games at Yankee Stadium.

[Domenic]

I doubt that those have been adjusted post-trade . . . neither James nor RLYW are releasing their updated projections anytime soon, so I figured I'd post what they had at first glance just to get the ball rolling.