The Worst 40-HR Season [Archive]

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Domenic

09-26-2009, 09:56 AM

This article (http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/yes-but-its-an-empty-.300/), in regards to "empty" batting averages, piqued my curiosity in terms of "empty" power numbers. That is, how many seasons have there been where a hitter reached a respected plateau in home runs, yet had an otherwise underwhelming year on the whole - I settled on forty home runs as a standard, mostly due to it being (1) more easily quantifiable than thirty or thirty-five (as there are less such seasons) and (2) a fairly respected mark, albeit less frequent than a .300 batting average.

With that in mind, I came up with the following seasons:

Adam Dunn, 2006, 40 HR
.234/.365/.490, 114 OPS+, .286 EQA, 1.9 WARP3, 0.6 WAR

Offensively, Dunn wasn't that bad - his OPS+ and EQA were a bit above average. However, in factoring in his abominable defense, Dunn's season was incredibly mediocre. I'm not sure that this should be the standard, though... enter:

Tony Batista, 2000, 41 HR
.263/.307/.519, 102 OPS+, .266 EQA, 3.5 WARP3, 1.9 WAR

Despite solid power numbers, Batista was essentially an average offensive player, on-the-whole. Uber-metrics see his overall contributions as more valuable than Dunn's (as he was an average third-baseman), but his offensive production was sorely lacking.

Can anyone else think of a player that fits this criteria? Or, perhaps, was even worse than Batista? My search has been fruitless, thus far - though, if I lower my threshold to 35 HR, Mr. Dave Kingman has something to say:

1982 - 37 HR, .204/.285/.432, 99 OPS+, .259 EQA, -0.3 WARP3
1986 - 35 HR, .210/.255/.431, 90 OPS+, .247 EQA, 0.0 WARP3

brett

09-26-2009, 10:26 AM

I'm looking for some. As a side note, Adrian Gonzalez and Carlos Pena are battling to post the 300th 40 home run season in history with his next one.

Domenic

09-26-2009, 10:37 AM

Carlos Pena is out for the season, as of 7 September, with two broken fingers - I suppose early congratulations are in order for Adrian Gonzalez.

SamtheBravesFan

09-26-2009, 12:48 PM

brett

09-26-2009, 01:46 PM

A quick scan of Play Index also brings up one of our favorites:

Jose Canseco, 1998, 46 HR
.237/.318/.518, 113 OPS+, .275 EQA, 2.3 WARP3

Something's going on with Vinny Castilla, too. What could be so different about these seasons to cause such a drastic difference in WARP3?

Vinny Castilla, 1996 and 1997, 40 HR
.304/.343/.548, 112 OPS+, .265 EQA, 6.0 WARP3
.304/.356/.547, 115 OPS+, .268 EQA, 1.3 WARP3

Somehow they rate '96 as an all-time great fielding season: +27 FRAA while he was NEGATIVE for almost every other year.

Schmidt had only 1 year better than that.

Third basemen are up and down like crazy in BBPro for defense. Its a sign to me that they are not adjusting for team tendancies.

BBRef has Castillia as a generally good fielder, but not as unworldly in '96, however solidly above average for the vast majority of his career.

AstrosFan

09-26-2009, 02:53 PM

I'll throw Juan Gonzalez, 1997 and 1992, into the mix. I basically ran the calculations of Fan Graphs Value Stat, but replaced UZR with Total Zone, as UZR does not cover some of the seasons I was looking at.

Gonzalez shows as worse than Batista in 1997 and slightly better in 1992, because he loses a lot of ground in fielding and defensive positional adjustment.

Edit: I actually can't remember if Total Zone is already position adjusted. If it is, that moves Juan Gone back ahead of Batista. Still, they're both terrible seasons.

leewileyfan

09-27-2009, 10:03 PM

Somehow they rate '96 as an all-time great fielding season: +27 FRAA while he was NEGATIVE for almost every other year.

Schmidt had only 1 year better than that.

Third basemen are up and down like crazy in BBPro for defense. Its a sign to me that they are not adjusting for team tendancies.

BBRef has Castillia as a generally good fielder, but not as unworldly in '96, however solidly above average for the vast majority of his career.

FWIW, My own defense metric gives Castilla a .983, very high with a template model of excellence set @ 1.000. By my measure, he was @ 9-10 Defense Runs above the MLB 3B average for that season. There are several other defense seasons at 3B over the 1901-2008 years; but he is in select company.

As for 1999, I have him at .952, @ -2 Defense Runs below a high 3B average at the MLB level.

His glowing .983, adjusted for pitching staff K's below league average @ -167 would adjust him down to + 7-8 Defense Runs for '96. Similarly adjusted for pitching staff K's vs League in 1999 [-43], his -DR would rise to maybe -2.5 Defense Runs.

Without further detail handy, he had solid years in '98 [.957]; '02 [.972]; '03 [.965]. and '04 [.974 vs. Rolen's top .979]. Career wise, I have him above average overall, his + years outweighing his - years by [guesstimate] 40 runs > average, career.

Relevant to thread, 1996, defense + offense was not an empty 40 HR season at all, IMO.

KCGHOST

09-28-2009, 06:40 AM

If we gave an annual award for the worst 40-HR season it would be named the Vinny Castilla Award.

AstrosFan

09-28-2009, 07:02 AM

Without further detail handy, he had solid years in '98 [.957]; '02 [.972]; '03 [.965]. and '04 [.974 vs. Rolen's top .979]. Career wise, I have him above average overall, his + years outweighing his - years by [guesstimate] 40 runs > average, career.

What clocks in as an average year for 3B defensively?

leewileyfan

09-28-2009, 08:35 AM

What clocks in as an average year for 3B defensively?

Between 1901 and 2008, of course the 3B average has varied widely. My metric attempts to govern this by adjusting data input final models to reflect demands of the position.

However, off hand, I's say @ .950 comes close.

AstrosFan

09-28-2009, 08:55 AM

Between 1901 and 2008, of course the 3B average has varied widely. My metric attempts to govern this by adjusting data input final models to reflect demands of the position.

However, off hand, I's say @ .950 comes close.

As a follow to make sure I've got it, are the percentages normalized across eras?

leewileyfan

09-28-2009, 11:53 AM

As a follow to make sure I've got it, are the percentages normalized across eras?

Yep. At least that's the basic framework.

Each position has weighted inputs intended to reflect degree of difficulty for plays at each position during a generation of play. Inputs are both + and - and reflect [on the minus side] the relative damage done by a miscue at a particular position.

By trial-and-error [over several months], I developed excellence models templates, unique to each position and factored player inputs at each position against the position template.

This gave me a feedback mechanism sensitive to game changes, such that 1901-1914 constitutes Phase 1 [for want of a better term] of the defensive history, influenced by:

-reaction to livelier ball a couple of years before;
-equipment improvements in glove designs and catcher protection;
-earliest signs of running game declining as some hitters [Cravath and s few others] are swinging away a bit more;

Ratings started to climb close to template models; and so I adjusted same accordingly.

My forward progress in team defense history [1901-present] is presently on HOLD after 1984, until I set up data support spreadsheets and editing, year-by-year, to simplify regression models for the entire period and sub-segments [generation] within it.

Joltin' Joe

09-28-2009, 03:42 PM

If we gave an annual award for the worst 40-HR season it would be named the Vinny Castilla Award.

It's even funnier when you factor in splits. For example:

1996
Home: .345/.389/.659/27 dongs
Road: .259/.291/.429/13 dongs

Not actually Klein-esque but still pretty bad. :rofl:

leewileyfan

09-28-2009, 04:09 PM

It's even funnier when you factor in splits. For example:

1996
Home: .345/.389/.659/27 dongs
Road: .259/.291/.429/13 dongs

Not actually Klein-esque but still pretty bad. :rofl:

Given nothing more specific, I'm guessing that Klein-esque has something to do with Chuck Klein.

1. Can you steer us to the awful splits you found for Chuck?
2. Is this same source good for most other pre-WW II players?

Joltin' Joe

09-28-2009, 04:27 PM

Yes I'm talking about Chucky. :rofl:

Here is an example....

1931 Chuck Klein Splits

Home: 407/.470/.751
Road: .266/.323/.418

Hit like Ted Williams in his peak at home and like Chuck Klein on the road. :shhh:

His 1933 Splits may even be better.

Home: .467/.516/.789, 20 HR, 81 RBI
Road: .280/.338/.436, 8 HR, 39 RBI

leewileyfan

09-28-2009, 08:05 PM

Joltin' Joe

09-28-2009, 08:51 PM

Thanks, JJ; but I did ask for sources and links. Got any?

Oh sorry LWF I missed that. Those numbers are from my published material library "database" so there is no link.

However, retrosheet has most of the Klein splits from his "peak" years at the softball park called Baker Bowl. I think it's missing '33.

http://www.retrosheet.org/boxesetc/K/Pkleic101.htm

AstrosFan

09-28-2009, 09:51 PM

http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=73371

538280

09-30-2009, 07:33 PM

I used my stat database and based on BaseRuns per 27 outs these are the 10 least productive 40 HR seasons of all time:

1. Tony Armas 1984
2. Dick Stuart 1963
3. Tony Batista 2000
4. Juan Gonzalez 1992
5. Jose Canseco 1998
6. Rocky Colavito 1959
7. Cecil Fielder 1991
8. Richie Sexson 2001
9. Sammy Sosa 1996
10. David Justice 1993

Adam Dunn's 2006 is 11th. This isn't adjusted for offensive context, so it isn't a perfect list at all. Batistia is probably the worst strictly offensively. He was playing in a very high run context and has the lowest OPS+ of any player here. I would say considering all parts of a player's game the worst 40 HR season was probably Adam Dunn in 2006. He hit 40 HRs in a time when it wasn't nearly as impressive as it used to be, as his 110 OPS+ shows, and he had almost no defensive value. Batista in 2000 was at least an okay 3B. Dick Stuart also is in the mix because of being by reputation perhaps the worst defensive player ever but 42 HRs in 1963 is very impressive even in Fenway Park, his productivity in context is definitely a little higher than Dunn's in '06.