"Today's generation" of starting pitchers: 2009 edition

[Cowtipper]

Which of "today's generation" of starting pitchers do you think will make it to the Hall of Fame? These are the criteria I used to determine who's made the poll and who didn't:

100+ wins
Career started in 1999 or later
Or is now 33 years of age or younger
.500 WP or better

Last year there were 17 guys on the list, this year there are 16.

Here are the ages, records and ERAs of each:

Ted Lilly, 33, 100-82, 4.33
Brad Penny, 31, 101-81, 4.14
Kelvim Escobar, 33, 101-91, 4.15
Josh Beckett, 29, 102-66, 3.72
Carlos Zambrano, 28, 103-65, 3.47
Mark Mulder, 31, 103-60, 4.18
Jon Garland, 29, 112-99, 4.45
Freddy Garcia, 34, 118-77, 4.07
Johan Santana, 30, 121-59, 3.11
C.C. Sabathia, 28, 128-80, 3.68
Barry Zito, 31, 130-103, 3.86
Mark Buehrle, 30, 133-92, 3.80
Roy Oswalt, 31, 135-68, 3.17
Javier Vazquez, 32, 136-136, 4.24
Roy Halladay, 32, 142-71, 3.45
Tim Hudson, 33, 146-77, 3.48

Career projections, using Bill James' favorite toy:

(W-L, K)

Ted Lilly: 173-124, 2104
Brad Penny: 170-119, 1717
Kelvim Escobar: 161-114, 1852
Josh Beckett: 219-118, 2523
Carlos Zambrano: 213-133, 2424
Mark Mulder: 103-72, 846
Jon Garland: 187-179, 1547
Freddy Garcia: 121-92, 1414
Johan Santana: 222-128, 3106
C.C. Sabathia: 257-142, 3080
Barry Zito: 190-188, 2216
Mark Buehrle: 214-152, 1944
Roy Oswalt: 215-113, 2365
Javier Vazquez: 208-194, 3331
Roy Halladay: 233-114, 2346
Tim Hudson: 200-110, 1817

Just for fun, here are the projections I gave last year for the guys that appear on both last year's and this year's list:

(W-L, K)

Kelvim Escobar: 140-113, 1694
Mark Mulder: 109-73, 900
Jon Garland: 199-165, 1530
Johan Santana: 206-117, 2963
C.C. Sabathia: 248-142, 3053
Freddy Garcia: 131-90, 1428
Mark Buehrle: 201-163, 1855
Barry Zito: 187-188, 2084
Roy Oswalt: 211-116, 2292
Javier Vazquez: 201-187, 3139
Roy Halladay: 223-117, 2222
Tim Hudson: 222-128, 2006

The players that dropped off the list from last year are:

Chris Carpenter
Russ Ortiz
Matt Morris
Jeff Suppan
Kevin Millwood
Livan Hernandez

New guys on the list this year are:

Ted Lilly
Brad Penny
Josh Beckett
Carlos Zambrano

The pitchers that just missed getting on this list are John Lackey, Jeff Weaver, AJ Burnett, Randy Wolf, Vicente Padilla, Jake Peavy, Jason Marquis and Sidney Ponson.

EDIT: Here are the percentages that some of the guys got last year:

Mark Buehrle: 7.69%
Roy Oswalt: 61.54%
Roy Halladay: 73.08%
Tim Hudson: 34.62%
CC Sabathia: 61.54%
Johan Santana: 76.92%

So, which of these guys do you think will make it to the Hall of Fame?

[PVNICK]

The key word for me was "will" so I voted for Santana and Halladay. If it was might then I would have opend the door a little wider. Funny thing maybe five years ago Zito and Hudson would have fared much better IMO than they will now, Freddy Garcia might have even gotten some votes.

[Blackhat]

I voted none. Isn't that a pity? There are very few pitchers in the game that have the ability to go to the Hall. The players that have the ability to make it won't achieve the counting stats that are expected for enshrinement.

The game has changed. Unless the writers change their criterea for election there will be very few starting pitchers elected, other than the guys that recently hit 300 wins.

In the last ten years we've had 4 pitchers elected (not counting negro league/VC votes). Ryan, Eckersley, Sutter and Gossage. Only Ryan was a starter for his whole career. Today's starting pitchers just won't put up the stats that are needed enshrinement.

If Sabathia gets to 250 wins he may make it. I think that eventually 250 will become the new 300.

[Freakshow]

An alternate view of this group.

"active" pitchers, lowest OPS+ allowed, 1300+ IP, born 1975+
Cnt Player OPS+ ERA+ BrYr W L IP From To
+----+-----------------+----+----+----+---+---+------+----+----+
1 Brandon Webb 73 142 1979 87 62 1319.2 2003 2009
2 Tim Hudson 80 126 1975 146 77 2017.1 1999 2008
3 Kelvim Escobar 86 113 1976 101 91 1507 1997 2009
4 Johan Santana 86 144 1979 121 59 1688 2000 2009
5 Ben Sheets 88 116 1978 86 83 1428 2001 2008
6 Roy Halladay 89 133 1977 142 71 1964.2 1998 2009
7 Freddy Garcia 89 111 1975 118 77 1716.2 1999 2008
8 Carlos Zambrano 93 128 1981 103 65 1505.2 2001 2009
9 Mark Mulder 95 106 1977 103 60 1314 2000 2008
10 Roy Oswalt 96 137 1977 135 68 1759 2001 2009
11 Jake Peavy 97 119 1981 92 68 1342.2 2002 2009
12 Barry Zito 97 114 1978 130 103 1938 2000 2009
13 C.C. Sabathia 99 120 1980 128 80 1814.1 2001 2009
14 A.J. Burnett 101 111 1977 97 81 1508.1 1999 2009
15 Javier Vazquez 101 106 1976 136 136 2418 1998 2009
16 Josh Beckett 102 119 1980 102 66 1331.2 2001 2009
17 Mark Buehrle 102 122 1979 133 92 1992.2 2000 2009
18 Odalis Perez 102 95 1977 73 82 1335 1998 2008
19 Chris Carpenter 103 115 1975 110 73 1653 1997 2009
20 Eric Milton 103 94 1975 89 85 1582.1 1998 2009
21 John Lackey 104 117 1978 98 67 1429.1 2002 2009
22 Ted Lilly 109 105 1976 100 82 1470.2 1999 2009
23 Jeff Weaver 113 93 1976 98 118 1771.2 1999 2009
24 Brad Penny 114 104 1978 101 81 1576.1 2000 2009
25 Jon Garland 115 104 1979 112 99 1762.2 2000 2009

[Freakshow]

I voted none. Isn't that a pity? There are very few pitchers in the game that have the ability to go to the Hall. The players that have the ability to make it won't achieve the counting stats that are expected for enshrinement.

The game has changed. Unless the writers change their criterea for election there will be very few starting pitchers elected, other than the guys that recently hit 300 wins.

In the last ten years we've had 4 pitchers elected (not counting negro league/VC votes). Ryan, Eckersley, Sutter and Gossage. Only Ryan was a starter for his whole career. Today's starting pitchers just won't put up the stats that are needed enshrinement.

If Sabathia gets to 250 wins he may make it. I think that eventually 250 will become the new 300.Most wins, past 34 seasons, inclusive
Cnt Player W L ERA+ IP From To
+----+-----------------+---+---+----+------+----+----+
1 Greg Maddux 355 227 132 5008.1 1986 2008
2 Roger Clemens 354 184 143 4916.2 1984 2007
3 Tom Glavine 305 203 118 4413.1 1987 2008
4 Randy Johnson 303 166 136 4131 1988 2009
5 Mike Mussina 270 153 123 3562.2 1991 2008
6 Jamie Moyer 256 193 105 3865 1986 2009
7 Jack Morris 254 186 105 3824 1977 1994
8 Dennis Martinez 245 193 106 3999.2 1976 1998
9 David Wells 239 157 108 3439 1987 2007
10 Andy Pettitte 224 133 116 2866 1995 2009
11 Kenny Rogers 219 156 108 3302.2 1989 2008

[Blackhat]

Most wins, past 34 seasons, inclusive
Cnt Player W L ERA+ IP From To
+----+-----------------+---+---+----+------+----+----+
1 Greg Maddux 355 227 132 5008.1 1986 2008
2 Roger Clemens 354 184 143 4916.2 1984 2007
3 Tom Glavine 305 203 118 4413.1 1987 2008
4 Randy Johnson 303 166 136 4131 1988 2009
5 Mike Mussina 270 153 123 3562.2 1991 2008
6 Jamie Moyer 256 193 105 3865 1986 2009
7 Jack Morris 254 186 105 3824 1977 1994
8 Dennis Martinez 245 193 106 3999.2 1976 1998
9 David Wells 239 157 108 3439 1987 2007
10 Andy Pettitte 224 133 116 2866 1995 2009
11 Kenny Rogers 219 156 108 3302.2 1989 2008

The top 4 are going to be HOFers, but they are either retired or close to it. Mussina and Moyer might have an outside chance, but again either retired or close. Andy Pettitte might have a chance with 4-6 more healthy seasons. He was fortunate enough to play on some good teams and accumulate a fair number of wins, but he hasn't really had stellar numbers.

There are some young, talented pitchers out there now but I just don't see any of the young pitchers coming up getting to 300 wins and whether we like it or not that is the standard for starters. Looking at Tommy John and Bert Blyleven we see that close hasn't been good enough, although BB still has a chance if he can stop pissing off the voters. I think if/when Blyleven gets inducted it will open the door for a few of the modern guys that will finish under 300

[PVNICK]

Who was the last starter to get in w/ under 300 wins? I'm assuming it was Jenkins, Hunter or Drysdale since Gibson and Marichal would have gone in before them. Mussina could be a litmus test.

[Cougar]

I'm pretty sure it was Fergie Jenkins.

[Blackhat]

Who was the last starter to get in w/ under 300 wins? I'm assuming it was Jenkins, Hunter or Drysdale since Gibson and Marichal would have gone in before them. Mussina could be a litmus test.

Jim Palmer in 1990 (268) and Fergie Jenkins in 1991 (284). I don't know if Mussina favorably compares to them though.

[PVNICK]

Mussina's 10 most similar on Baseball Reference which has Palmer and Marichal, though w/ Marichal the most similar @ 866 I don't think they qualify as particularly similar.

[gman5431]

I felt good voting for Johan. I picked Roy O and Doc also but not as confident on those two.

G Man

[Blackhat]

I felt good voting for Johan. I picked Roy O and Doc also but not as confident on those two.

G Man

Johan Santana is one of the guys that I think has the talent of a Hall of Fame pitcher, but will not get the counting stats. If he stays healthy he'll get 3000 K, but he'll likely end up well below 250 wins.

He's not really a young guy anymore, he's 30, has 121 wins. If he gets 5 more 15 win seasons, then 3 decline years, he'll end up in the 220-230 range. His ERA/K/WHIP are all real good, but without a string of 20 win seasons he'll fall short.

[willshad]

With pitchers it is really hard to tell who will be a hall of famer, and who won't. If you had a poll like this 20 years ago, most people would have voted for Gooden, Saberhagen, Cone, Hershiser, and Viola. I dont think anyone would have voted for Maddux, Johnson, Galvine, Smoltz, etc. The most important thing seems to be longevity, so one really cannot tell until very late in a pitcher's career.

[nerfan]

That's probably because the former five were already established vets at that point and the bottom four were just getting their work in. And in 1989, I don't think anyone would pick Glavine or R. Johnson for the Hall, even if that someone had picked Marquard.

[gman5431]

Johan Santana is one of the guys that I think has the talent of a Hall of Fame pitcher, but will not get the counting stats. If he stays healthy he'll get 3000 K, but he'll likely end up well below 250 wins.

He's not really a young guy anymore, he's 30, has 121 wins. If he gets 5 more 15 win seasons, then 3 decline years, he'll end up in the 220-230 range. His ERA/K/WHIP are all real good, but without a string of 20 win seasons he'll fall short.

I could see that. I agree he would have to string together a bunch of more quality seasons.

G Man