Freakshow
08-05-2009, 09:00 AM
Here is a link to the previous election (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=91703).
======================================
This is the official Roster of Voters who are eligible to vote in this election:
Ace Venom
AstrosFan
Brad Harris
Captain Cold Nose
Cougar
Domenic
Fielding Marshall
Freakshow
gman5431
jalbright
jjpm74
Paul Wendt
PVNICK
Sockeye
STLCards2
Tiboreau
Windy City Fan
If anyone else would like to join in and vote, go to the introductory thread (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=89253) and apply; you're in if there are no objections from any current voters. Also refer to that thread for a fuller understanding of the rules.
======================================
Each voter must do three things:
1) Rank these 15 players in order. In this project, you are a voter for the hall of fame, so players should be ranked based on hall of fame criteria, the sum of all their contributions to the game. If you feel a player is more appropriately elected to the HOF as a contributor, you may disregard his non-playing contributions in your analysis.
v1.0 Election #7 AWS Peak WARP3 Peak
293 Bobby Bonds 305 29.1 | 65.2 7.23
321 Wilbur Cooper 285 28.3 | 50.6 5.60
274 Larry Doyle 309 28.9 | 41.7 4.59
282 Bob Elliott 294 26.8 | 66.3 7.22
353 Bob Johnson 312 26.0 | 66.4 6.13
348 Charley Jones 312 31.4 | 55.1 6.78
357 Dick Lundy 347 25.3 | 72.2 5.45
266 Cal McVey 238 32.3 | 30.4 5.02
278 Alejandro Oms 397 28.4 | 65.2 5.94
240 Dave Parker 331 29.6 | 58.5 6.96
308 Billy Pierce 259 23.0 | 72.1 6.97
281 Dan Quisenberry 163 21.5 | 42.5 5.82
301 Willie Randolph 318 23.7 | 70.7 6.16
330 Dick Redding 285 28.1 |
338 Luis Tiant 258 23.0 | 67.6 6.45
A maximum of ten players will be “elected” at one time.
The pink elephant in the room is, of course, steroids. I would advise voters to treat the PED-tainted candidates with a similar degree of sanctions that MLB has placed upon them. IOW, if a candidate has never been penalized by MLB for PED use it is inappropriate for voters to penalize him in their analysis for ranking them.
I don’t want this thread to become bogged down in yet another PED discussion, so persons who want to debate this should take it to one of the many threads at BBF dealing with this issue. I’m simply requesting voters to avoid going down the Rabbit Hole of suspicion and rumor and to base their analysis on what is known – on the evidence. Let our group be a shining example to the BBWAA as to a rational approach to candidates from the “steroids era”.
2) For each candidate, signify Yes (Y) or No (N) in answer to this question: Should this player be in the Hall of Fame?
We all have our own idea of how many people should be in the Hall of Fame. For this project, I’m asking voters to use a standard of value that is similar to that established by the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum in Cooperstown, NY. They have now enshrined 231 players from MLB and Negro leagues. This gives us the definition of “Hall of Famer” now in use by the Hall: one of the top 231 players from MLB or Negro leagues who retired in 2003 or earlier. In practice, many of us employ a “tolerance zone”, extending our range of Yeses somewhat beyond our personal 231 player queue, thus acknowledging that a Gray Area exists.
From everything I have seen, there are at least 35 candidates for the HOF, and perhaps more than 60, who have a good case for being ranked as one of the top 231 eligible players outside the Hall. Thus, for this election I would still expect most ballots to have a few Yeses.
A player will be considered “elected” to the Hall of Purgatory if he finishes in the top ten, and a majority of voters say Yes.
3) Rank your top 7 players from this list of 25 upcoming candidates. The top players from this runoff will replace players who drop off the ballot:
v1.0 Runoff for next ballot AWS Peak WARP3 Peak
347 Wally Berger 255 30.8 | 51.8 6.53
290 Tommy Bridges 253 21.9 | 71.6 6.39
250 Pete Browning 267 29.2 | 49.9 6.23
374 Dave Concepcion 278 24.1 | 71.6 8.07
300 Gavvy Cravath 340 31.6 | 59.4 6.04
302 Steve Garvey 286 24.5 | 57.1 5.97
333 Gil Hodges 276 26.3 | 56.0 6.11
316 Tommy John 295 18.5 | 67.9 5.22
364 Jim Kaat 272 20.8 | 56.1 5.77
346 Herman Long 308 27.9 | 49.6 5.30
322 Don Mattingly 270 28.5 | 57.4 6.85
345 Jack Morris 234 20.1 | 50.6 5.31
312 Tony Mullane 313 32.3 | 48.0 5.81
275 Thurman Munson 213 23.3 | 59.2 6.85
382 Don Newcombe 227 24.2 | 56.4 6.42
315 Tony Oliva 246 28.0 | 52.8 6.43
341 Al Rosen 195 29.7 | 40.3 6.61
335 Jimmy Ryan 369 29.8 | 58.4 5.37
323 Bret Saberhagen 199 21.0 | 74.3 7.79
313 Urban Shocker 248 26.0 | 62.5 6.74
362 Lee Smith 205 16.7 | 66.5 5.87
283 Reggie Smith 337 26.8 | 65.1 5.84
280 Vern Stephens 269 27.4 | 50.5 5.51
310 Dave Stieb 217 22.7 | 62.6 6.97
317 Quincy Trouppe 269 25.7 |
========================================
Notes on charts
--WARP has warped again, changing many values from the last ballot. Quisenberry and Smith no longer look like jokes, the latest WARP boosted them significantly. Most pitchers, as well as 19th century players, got a small raise.
--The first column is their rank on the 500 Player List, v1.0 (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=81709&page=99&post=#3939).
--AWS = career Adjusted Win Shares. Increased for war credit (Bridges, Redding, Newcombe), race credit, short seasons, blackballed (Jones, Mullane), Japan (Smith), minor leagues (Cravath, Johnson), early death (Munson). Decreased for fledgling (Browning, Mullane, Jones) and war-depleted (Doyle, Cooper, Elliott, Stephens, Johnson, Bridges, Cravath, Shocker) leagues. Pre-1893 pitching win shares reduced by 50% (Mullane).
--Peak = Weighted Average of Top 7 years in Adjusted Win Shares.
--Career total of WARP3 from Baseball Prospectus. Increased for war credit, race credit, Japanese play, minor league play and being blackballed.
--Peak = Weighted Average of Top 7 years in WARP3.
--Data for Negro leaguers (Oms, Redding, Lundy, Trouppe) are adapted from their MLE’s at Baseballthinkfactory (http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/hall_of_merit/discussion/the_negro_league_home_page).
--Players who played primarily before 1893 (Browning, McVey, Mullane, Jones) are increased to a 152-game basis for AWS.
--AWS for NA (1871-75) are estimated from WARP3 numbers.
--Credit for pre-NA play (before 1871) was not calculated for McVey.
========================================
A Few Words About the Queue
The queue of candidates isn’t your list or mine. In short, it’s a consensus built from ruminating over this issue for 30-some years. Yes, numbers are paramount – hey, I’m an accountant. However, I’ve incorporated every reasonable ranking system I’ve run across. The Ultimate Quest for Candidates (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=68815) project was very influential. I also consider their “popularity” as a HOF candidate. I look for players who do well both by the numbers and by opinion. You tend to see the same names popping up over and over, and I’ve tried to put these guys at the top. However, there are always those divisive candidates.
Look at our earliest candidates, Joe Start and Lip Pike. Both began playing at the game’s highest level long before 1871; each is missing more than a third of their career in the official record and nearly half of their prime. We can get a quick and dirty estimate of their career value by multiplying their totals by 1.5. This method shows Start with 443 Adjusted Win shares and 60.3 WARP3. Pike is boosted to 278 AWS and 43.1 WARP3. These are in spite of Win Shares underallocation to 19th century defense and WARP3’s severe timeline discount on 1870’s players. Obviously, the game they excelled at was very different from the baseball that we know. In addition, pro baseball had only recently begun to spread beyond the northeast region of the country. Bill James quickly dismisses them for these reasons.
Well, it’s the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum, right? If that last word is going to be meaningful, it’s incumbent upon the Hall to identify and honor the greatest players from every era of the game’s history. At present, we see only scant representation from the first twenty years of professional play (1869-1888).
Average no. Hall of Famers playing semi-regular 1871-1887: 8.9 (median: 7 / range: 5-15)
Average no. Hall of Famers playing semi-regular 1888-1904: 24.4 (median: 24 / range: 19-29)
The Hall of Fame should enshrine another 10-15 players from the 1870s-80s era.
========================================
It is helpful to me if you only list players by their last name on your ballot (or last name, first initial). If you want to change your ballot some time after it is first posted, make a post in this thread that you have done so. Balloting will continue until everyone has voted, but not more than two weeks. I will try to get the results up as soon after this as possible.
Discussion of the rankings, players, rules, methodologies, etc. should take place in this thread. Some of these candidates you may never have seriously considered for the Hall, so I would expect voters to engage in discussion and be open to persuasion regarding these players. Try to imagine this as a final hearing on these candidates, to accept or reject them forever, and seriously consider each player’s qualifications. Go beyond the numbers and look for contributions in the minor leagues or non-playing or anecdotal. Consider whether a player deserves a bonus for playing a position, or in an era, that’s underrepresented in the Hall’s membership.
========================================
So far, these players have been named to dwell in the Hall of Purgatory:
1. Ron Santo, 2. Bert Blyleven, 3. Tim Raines, 4. Roberto Alomar, 5. Barry Larkin, 6. Bill Dahlen, 7. Dick Allen, 8. Deacon White, 9. Alan Trammell, 10. Bobby Grich
11. Paul Hines, 12. Minnie Minoso, 13. Sherry Magee, 14. Ted Simmons, 15. Mark McGwire, 16. Lou Whitaker, 17. Joe Torre, 18. Edgar Martinez, 19. Darrell Evans, 20. Stan Hack
21. George Gore, 22. Will Clark, 23. Heinie Groh, 24. Wes Ferrell, 25. Ross Barnes, 26. Andre Dawson, 27. Jack Glasscock, 28. Dwight Evans, 29. Homerun Johnson, 30. Fred McGriff
31. John Beckwith, 32. Charlie Bennett, 33. Harry Stovey, 34. Hardy Richardson, 35. Jimmy Wynn, 36. Keith Hernandez, 37. Ken Boyer, 38. Bill Freehan, 39. Graig Nettles, 40. Dale Murphy
41. Ezra Sutton, 42. Joe Start, 43. Bob Caruthers, 44. Jimmy Sheckard, 45. Tommy Leach, 46. Albert Belle, 47. Bucky Walters, 48. Charlie Keller, 49. George Van Haltren, 50. Dobie Moore
51. Cupid Childs, 52. Lip Pike
======================================
This is the official Roster of Voters who are eligible to vote in this election:
Ace Venom
AstrosFan
Brad Harris
Captain Cold Nose
Cougar
Domenic
Fielding Marshall
Freakshow
gman5431
jalbright
jjpm74
Paul Wendt
PVNICK
Sockeye
STLCards2
Tiboreau
Windy City Fan
If anyone else would like to join in and vote, go to the introductory thread (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=89253) and apply; you're in if there are no objections from any current voters. Also refer to that thread for a fuller understanding of the rules.
======================================
Each voter must do three things:
1) Rank these 15 players in order. In this project, you are a voter for the hall of fame, so players should be ranked based on hall of fame criteria, the sum of all their contributions to the game. If you feel a player is more appropriately elected to the HOF as a contributor, you may disregard his non-playing contributions in your analysis.
v1.0 Election #7 AWS Peak WARP3 Peak
293 Bobby Bonds 305 29.1 | 65.2 7.23
321 Wilbur Cooper 285 28.3 | 50.6 5.60
274 Larry Doyle 309 28.9 | 41.7 4.59
282 Bob Elliott 294 26.8 | 66.3 7.22
353 Bob Johnson 312 26.0 | 66.4 6.13
348 Charley Jones 312 31.4 | 55.1 6.78
357 Dick Lundy 347 25.3 | 72.2 5.45
266 Cal McVey 238 32.3 | 30.4 5.02
278 Alejandro Oms 397 28.4 | 65.2 5.94
240 Dave Parker 331 29.6 | 58.5 6.96
308 Billy Pierce 259 23.0 | 72.1 6.97
281 Dan Quisenberry 163 21.5 | 42.5 5.82
301 Willie Randolph 318 23.7 | 70.7 6.16
330 Dick Redding 285 28.1 |
338 Luis Tiant 258 23.0 | 67.6 6.45
A maximum of ten players will be “elected” at one time.
The pink elephant in the room is, of course, steroids. I would advise voters to treat the PED-tainted candidates with a similar degree of sanctions that MLB has placed upon them. IOW, if a candidate has never been penalized by MLB for PED use it is inappropriate for voters to penalize him in their analysis for ranking them.
I don’t want this thread to become bogged down in yet another PED discussion, so persons who want to debate this should take it to one of the many threads at BBF dealing with this issue. I’m simply requesting voters to avoid going down the Rabbit Hole of suspicion and rumor and to base their analysis on what is known – on the evidence. Let our group be a shining example to the BBWAA as to a rational approach to candidates from the “steroids era”.
2) For each candidate, signify Yes (Y) or No (N) in answer to this question: Should this player be in the Hall of Fame?
We all have our own idea of how many people should be in the Hall of Fame. For this project, I’m asking voters to use a standard of value that is similar to that established by the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum in Cooperstown, NY. They have now enshrined 231 players from MLB and Negro leagues. This gives us the definition of “Hall of Famer” now in use by the Hall: one of the top 231 players from MLB or Negro leagues who retired in 2003 or earlier. In practice, many of us employ a “tolerance zone”, extending our range of Yeses somewhat beyond our personal 231 player queue, thus acknowledging that a Gray Area exists.
From everything I have seen, there are at least 35 candidates for the HOF, and perhaps more than 60, who have a good case for being ranked as one of the top 231 eligible players outside the Hall. Thus, for this election I would still expect most ballots to have a few Yeses.
A player will be considered “elected” to the Hall of Purgatory if he finishes in the top ten, and a majority of voters say Yes.
3) Rank your top 7 players from this list of 25 upcoming candidates. The top players from this runoff will replace players who drop off the ballot:
v1.0 Runoff for next ballot AWS Peak WARP3 Peak
347 Wally Berger 255 30.8 | 51.8 6.53
290 Tommy Bridges 253 21.9 | 71.6 6.39
250 Pete Browning 267 29.2 | 49.9 6.23
374 Dave Concepcion 278 24.1 | 71.6 8.07
300 Gavvy Cravath 340 31.6 | 59.4 6.04
302 Steve Garvey 286 24.5 | 57.1 5.97
333 Gil Hodges 276 26.3 | 56.0 6.11
316 Tommy John 295 18.5 | 67.9 5.22
364 Jim Kaat 272 20.8 | 56.1 5.77
346 Herman Long 308 27.9 | 49.6 5.30
322 Don Mattingly 270 28.5 | 57.4 6.85
345 Jack Morris 234 20.1 | 50.6 5.31
312 Tony Mullane 313 32.3 | 48.0 5.81
275 Thurman Munson 213 23.3 | 59.2 6.85
382 Don Newcombe 227 24.2 | 56.4 6.42
315 Tony Oliva 246 28.0 | 52.8 6.43
341 Al Rosen 195 29.7 | 40.3 6.61
335 Jimmy Ryan 369 29.8 | 58.4 5.37
323 Bret Saberhagen 199 21.0 | 74.3 7.79
313 Urban Shocker 248 26.0 | 62.5 6.74
362 Lee Smith 205 16.7 | 66.5 5.87
283 Reggie Smith 337 26.8 | 65.1 5.84
280 Vern Stephens 269 27.4 | 50.5 5.51
310 Dave Stieb 217 22.7 | 62.6 6.97
317 Quincy Trouppe 269 25.7 |
========================================
Notes on charts
--WARP has warped again, changing many values from the last ballot. Quisenberry and Smith no longer look like jokes, the latest WARP boosted them significantly. Most pitchers, as well as 19th century players, got a small raise.
--The first column is their rank on the 500 Player List, v1.0 (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=81709&page=99&post=#3939).
--AWS = career Adjusted Win Shares. Increased for war credit (Bridges, Redding, Newcombe), race credit, short seasons, blackballed (Jones, Mullane), Japan (Smith), minor leagues (Cravath, Johnson), early death (Munson). Decreased for fledgling (Browning, Mullane, Jones) and war-depleted (Doyle, Cooper, Elliott, Stephens, Johnson, Bridges, Cravath, Shocker) leagues. Pre-1893 pitching win shares reduced by 50% (Mullane).
--Peak = Weighted Average of Top 7 years in Adjusted Win Shares.
--Career total of WARP3 from Baseball Prospectus. Increased for war credit, race credit, Japanese play, minor league play and being blackballed.
--Peak = Weighted Average of Top 7 years in WARP3.
--Data for Negro leaguers (Oms, Redding, Lundy, Trouppe) are adapted from their MLE’s at Baseballthinkfactory (http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/hall_of_merit/discussion/the_negro_league_home_page).
--Players who played primarily before 1893 (Browning, McVey, Mullane, Jones) are increased to a 152-game basis for AWS.
--AWS for NA (1871-75) are estimated from WARP3 numbers.
--Credit for pre-NA play (before 1871) was not calculated for McVey.
========================================
A Few Words About the Queue
The queue of candidates isn’t your list or mine. In short, it’s a consensus built from ruminating over this issue for 30-some years. Yes, numbers are paramount – hey, I’m an accountant. However, I’ve incorporated every reasonable ranking system I’ve run across. The Ultimate Quest for Candidates (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=68815) project was very influential. I also consider their “popularity” as a HOF candidate. I look for players who do well both by the numbers and by opinion. You tend to see the same names popping up over and over, and I’ve tried to put these guys at the top. However, there are always those divisive candidates.
Look at our earliest candidates, Joe Start and Lip Pike. Both began playing at the game’s highest level long before 1871; each is missing more than a third of their career in the official record and nearly half of their prime. We can get a quick and dirty estimate of their career value by multiplying their totals by 1.5. This method shows Start with 443 Adjusted Win shares and 60.3 WARP3. Pike is boosted to 278 AWS and 43.1 WARP3. These are in spite of Win Shares underallocation to 19th century defense and WARP3’s severe timeline discount on 1870’s players. Obviously, the game they excelled at was very different from the baseball that we know. In addition, pro baseball had only recently begun to spread beyond the northeast region of the country. Bill James quickly dismisses them for these reasons.
Well, it’s the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum, right? If that last word is going to be meaningful, it’s incumbent upon the Hall to identify and honor the greatest players from every era of the game’s history. At present, we see only scant representation from the first twenty years of professional play (1869-1888).
Average no. Hall of Famers playing semi-regular 1871-1887: 8.9 (median: 7 / range: 5-15)
Average no. Hall of Famers playing semi-regular 1888-1904: 24.4 (median: 24 / range: 19-29)
The Hall of Fame should enshrine another 10-15 players from the 1870s-80s era.
========================================
It is helpful to me if you only list players by their last name on your ballot (or last name, first initial). If you want to change your ballot some time after it is first posted, make a post in this thread that you have done so. Balloting will continue until everyone has voted, but not more than two weeks. I will try to get the results up as soon after this as possible.
Discussion of the rankings, players, rules, methodologies, etc. should take place in this thread. Some of these candidates you may never have seriously considered for the Hall, so I would expect voters to engage in discussion and be open to persuasion regarding these players. Try to imagine this as a final hearing on these candidates, to accept or reject them forever, and seriously consider each player’s qualifications. Go beyond the numbers and look for contributions in the minor leagues or non-playing or anecdotal. Consider whether a player deserves a bonus for playing a position, or in an era, that’s underrepresented in the Hall’s membership.
========================================
So far, these players have been named to dwell in the Hall of Purgatory:
1. Ron Santo, 2. Bert Blyleven, 3. Tim Raines, 4. Roberto Alomar, 5. Barry Larkin, 6. Bill Dahlen, 7. Dick Allen, 8. Deacon White, 9. Alan Trammell, 10. Bobby Grich
11. Paul Hines, 12. Minnie Minoso, 13. Sherry Magee, 14. Ted Simmons, 15. Mark McGwire, 16. Lou Whitaker, 17. Joe Torre, 18. Edgar Martinez, 19. Darrell Evans, 20. Stan Hack
21. George Gore, 22. Will Clark, 23. Heinie Groh, 24. Wes Ferrell, 25. Ross Barnes, 26. Andre Dawson, 27. Jack Glasscock, 28. Dwight Evans, 29. Homerun Johnson, 30. Fred McGriff
31. John Beckwith, 32. Charlie Bennett, 33. Harry Stovey, 34. Hardy Richardson, 35. Jimmy Wynn, 36. Keith Hernandez, 37. Ken Boyer, 38. Bill Freehan, 39. Graig Nettles, 40. Dale Murphy
41. Ezra Sutton, 42. Joe Start, 43. Bob Caruthers, 44. Jimmy Sheckard, 45. Tommy Leach, 46. Albert Belle, 47. Bucky Walters, 48. Charlie Keller, 49. George Van Haltren, 50. Dobie Moore
51. Cupid Childs, 52. Lip Pike