Under 30 position players; who is the most likely to end up with a HOF career?

[jjpm74]

I'm starting what will be a short project intended to determine which younger major leaguers are on a HOF arc. The purpose is to determine which position players (and next round which pitchers) under 30 years old are the most likely to end up with HOF careers.

Rules:

1. Week 1, anyone who wishes to participate will list 5-10 players with a minimum of 900 PAs who is under 30 years old and will still be under 30 years old as of November 1, 2009 they feel has a legitimate shot at a career as a HOFer.

2. After the 1st week, the 20 players with the most votes will be listed in a poll that I will add at the beginning of this thread. Participants may vote for 5 players from this list and the results will be tallied at the end of week 3 to determine who the best under 30 year old players are who are on a potential HOF path. If necessary, there will be short runoff polls to break ties.

Remember, since we are dealing with young players, there is a lot of speculation involved (which is part of the fun). It's okay to project and equally okay to simply compare players against historical counterparts who had a similar career arc. Use whichever method works best for you.

If this end gets favorable participation, I will start a second thread for pitchers when this end of the project concludes. For now, please limit this to position players.

[Francoeurstein]

1. Ryan Howard
2. Albert Pujols
3. David Wright
4. Mark Teixiera
5. Brian McCann
6. Hanley Ramirez
7. Ryan Braun
8. Miguel Cabrera
9. Justin Morneau
10. Joe Mauer

[jjpm74]

My nominees:

Miguel Cabrera
Adam Dunn
Ryan Howard
Matt Holliday
Joe Mauer
Justin Morneau
Albert Pujols
Hanley Ramirez
Mark Texiera
David Wright

[STLCards2]

1. Albert Pujols
2. Hanley Ramirez
3. Joe Mauer
4. David Wright
5. Evan Longoria
6. Miguel Cabrera
7. Ryan Braun
8. Brian McCann

These are the guys I feel pretty good about. I am sure there are some guys in their first or second year (outside of Longoria, of course) that will be there, but generaly, I like to see several years from a guy first.

[STLCards2]

Surprised to see Howard so high - started later than everybody else (and is the oldest here), has declined each year already, and has an "old-skills" body which tends to decline faster than a lot of these other guys. Considering all Albert has to do is step foot on a baseball diamond one game next year and he is a lock - just a formailty. I can't see any scenario (aside from PED controversy) that Albert isn't the overwhelming favorite. Albert is younger, in better shape, and has amassed far superior accumulative numbers compared to Howard already.

As far as Morneau, Fielder, and Teixiera - it is so hard for slugging 1B to sperate themselves from the McGriffs or dozen other big-hitting 1B of the world. I am sure one or more of these guys might do it, but it is hard to tell.

[Cowtipper]

Coincidentally, I was just about to do a poll on "today's generation" of pitchers.

Ryan Howard
Joe Mauer
Albert Pujols
Hanley Ramirez
Mark Teixeira
David Wright

[STLCards2]

Coincidentally, I was just about to do a poll on "today's generation" of pitchers.

Ryan Howard
Joe Mauer
Albert Pujols
Mark Teixeira
David Wright

You really think that Howard and Teixeira are better in relation to HOF 1B than H.Ramirez is to HOF SS?

[Cowtipper]

You really think that Howard and Teixeira are better in relation to HOF 1B than H.Ramirez is to HOF SS?
I forgot about Ramirez, I don't know what to think about Utley just yet.

[STLCards2]

I forgot about Ramirez, I don't know what to think about Utley just yet.

Utley is already 30, so I fixed that, but how could you not "know" about him? he has had a 4-5 year run comparing favorable to the peaks of Biggio, Sandberg, and Alomar. How often does a well-above average defensive 2B rank in the top 10 in OPS+ year after year? If he were under 30, he would be #2 on my list.

[Cowtipper]

Utley is already 30, so I fixed that, but how could you not "know" about him? he has had a 4-5 year run comparing favorable to the peaks of Biggio, Sandberg, and Alomar. How often does a well-above average defensive 2B rank in the top 10 in OPS+ year after year? If he were under 30, he would be #2 on my list.

But he's kind of olde. I don't know, get back to me in five years about him.

[Domenic]

01. Albert Pujols
02. Hanley Ramirez
03. Joe Mauer
04. Miguel Cabrera
05. David Wright
06. Evan Longoria
07. Matt Holliday
08. Brian McCann
09. Ryan Braun

[STLCards2]

01. Albert Pujols
02. Hanley Ramirez
03. Joe Mauer
04. Miguel Cabrera
05. David Wright
06. Evan Longoria
07. Matt Holliday
08. Brian McCann

Nice list, pretty close to mine - I still see Braun (who has proven to be a mutch better hitter on nuetral fields) as a favorite over Holliday.

[Domenic]

Nice list, pretty close to mine - I still see Braun (who has proven to be a mutch better hitter on nuetral fields) as a favorite over Holliday.

I added Braun to my original post - I'm not sure why I forgot him... I thought of him when I entered the thread, too.

I have a great deal of confidence in Matt Holliday. While I'm not sure that he'll ever post a SLG near .600 again, I do think that he can be a consistent .300/.400/.500 player for several years. In fact, I think his current line (.314/.404/.507) is a good baseline for the next several years, and I could see him hitting twenty-five home runs and stealing twenty-plus bases a year for the next few years, as well. Factor in his very good glove, and I think he could very well be a Hall of Famer.

[STLCards2]

I added Braun to my original post - I'm not sure why I forgot him... I thought of him when I entered the thread, too.

I have a great deal of confidence in Matt Holliday. While I'm not sure that he'll ever post a SLG near .600 again, I do think that he can be a consistent .300/.400/.500 player for several years. In fact, I think his current line (.314/.404/.507) is a good baseline for the next several years, and I could see him hitting twenty-five home runs and stealing twenty-plus bases a year for the next few years, as well. Factor in his very good glove, and I think he could very well be a Hall of Famer.

If he signs with St. Louis, I hope you are right!

Seeing that we have very similar ballots -what is your take on Howard, Fielder, Teixiera, and Morneau?

[Domenic]

If he signs with St. Louis, I hope you are right!

Seeing that we have very similar ballots -what is your take on Howard, Fielder, Teixiera, and Morneau?

Ryan Howard appears to be nothing more than a great power hitter at this point in his career. While there's nothing wrong with that, I feel that he has already peaked and, due to his late start, he may not get the chance to hit any of the "lock" milestones. I see him turning into a "feast or famine" hitter, with his career average dropping down into the .260s and his OBP closer to .360, and his fielding will never be anything better than average - and the perception of it is much lower.

Justin Morneau is wildly inconsistent, from half to half and year to year, and he doesn't post flashy numbers. His numbers pale in comparison to many first basemen in this era, and I don't think he's going to get much better. Though, to be fair, he's been great this season and his numbers are a bit better away from the Metrodome, so he may improve with the move.

I think Prince Fielder is a better hitter than either Morneau or Howard, though he is the worst fielder of the bunch. I also fear for his conditioning, as the switch to vegetarianism didn't seem to help him. Still, he's done amazing in year two of the dietary switch, and I may be wrong. As it stands, though, I don't see him sticking around for too long.

Mark Teixeira may be the best overall player of the bunch but, like Morneau, he doesn't post flashy numbers. I could see him hitting 45-50 home runs a year for the next few years at New Yankee Stadium, which could change my tune, but I can also see NYS garnering a Coors-like reputation. His glove could put him over the other three, though, as he has a stellar reputation.

In the end, it seems like the four are very comparable - and that's part of the problem with trying to include one or two in the list. I think every player I listed is clearly better, and it's tough to include one or two. Further, the step down from Pujols to them hurts (or, I would surmise it would from the perspective of the BBWAA), and they're still a ways from the top first basemen of the 1990s (Thomas and Bagwell) and I'd probably put them behind Lance Berkman (though he moved around a bit).

[CircleChange11]

Pujols and Cabrera are the two on the list that I think are on their way to being "locks" (in the near future). Pujols already is, in my mind. If something happened and he could no longer continue his career, the HoF would need to (IMO) adjust it's procedure or make an exception. He's dominated his era. If not for Barry BALCO, he'd have 4 MVPs, instead of just 2.

Cabrera is essentially a "young Manny" without all the crap. Year in, year out (pretty much) .300-30-100. He doesn't really do anything strenuous, and if he can stay "not fatter", and just ease into DH'ing for the duration, he could easily be a lock. He's only 26.

Cabrera is listed (at baseball-reference) as 6'2 185. Hil-arious. His torso is 185.

Mauer has basically been "really good" for only 3 seasons in his career (including this one). I'd like to see a little more of his career before I go putting him on any HoF list. The thing working for him is his position, and the low standard that comes with it (well that, and his obvious talent to hit for a high average). Mauer will likely make it if he just keeps plugging along. The media love Wholesome Joe, and he's a damn good player.

Knowing that Hanley Ramirez exists and seeing all of the attention Jeter has gotten and continues to get just makes the stomach turn. Can someone please get Hanley out of Florida for the 'good of the game'? I have no idea how this guy's career is gonna finish, but for the past 3 years have been absolute monster seasons, especially for a SS. If he played for NYY or BOS, we'd be so sick of hearing about 'HanRam this' and 'HanRam that'. Hell, he'd replace Jack Bauer, John Wayne, and Chuck Norris in all of those "joke lists" (Hanley Ramirez doesn't read books. He stares them down until he gets the information he wants. Hanley Ramirez can divide by zero, and on and on). Okay, I got carried away a bit. But, really HR's career to this point is mindblowing. Hits like an all-star 3B, runs like an all-star OF, and plays SS. This dude gets about 1/10th of the press he deserves.

Most of the others are iffy.

Howard will make it because he'll get his 500 HRs, even if he has to strike out 2500 times and hit .240 to do it. I know he's better than that, but you get my drift. He's horrible in the field and if ever suffers a solid injury, I'm not sold he'll bounce back completely. Still right now, he's enjoying the good life in Philly, where everyone hits at least 30 HRs a season. Hey don't look now, Werth has 22 bombs.

[Senor Octobre]

Ryan Braun
Miguel Cabrera
Ryan Howard
Evan Longoria
Joe Mauer
Brian McCann
Albert Pujols
Hanley Ramirez
Mark Teixeira
David Wright

Other guys I'm keeping an eye on:

Adam Dunn
Prince Fielder
Adrian Gonzalez
Curtis Granderson
Matt Holliday (I'd like to see how he continues to hit outside Coors)
Ian Kinsler
Justin Morneau (his past 4 years have been good, but as a 1B, the career OPS+ has got to be better than 127)
Dustin Pedroia
Grady Sizemore (probably should be on the first list, but he's struggled with injuries this year)
Dan Uggla (having a mediocre season, but his first three were good for a 2B)

[CircleChange11]

If Adam Dunn makes the HoF, it would change my perception of the place forever. Just saying.

Everybody like Big Donkey, but still.

Sure he's hit 40 HRs 5 X's ... including exactly 40 each year for the last 4 years (strange), but hitting under .250 in the 'home run era'.

I guess if he hits 500 to 550 HRs, he'd be considered, perhaps even a lock. BUt, I have a tough time calling Dunn a great player, let alone a Hall of Famer.

I can't believe he's still playing the OF and not a DH or 1B by now.

[Francoeurstein]

I have a feeling Morneau is going to be a McGriff-type guy and we will be closely debating him as the years go by.

[mwiggins]

Mauer has basically been "really good" for only 3 seasons in his career (including this one). I'd like to see a little more of his career before I go putting him on any HoF list. The thing working for him is his position, and the low standard that comes with it (well that, and his obvious talent to hit for a high average). Mauer will likely make it if he just keeps plugging along. The media love Wholesome Joe, and he's a damn good player.



Probably too early to call this season just "really good". He may slump terribly, but he seems on his way to his 3rd great year. But even if that does happen, that's still 3 really good years and 2 great ones in 5 years as a regular. Though personally, you might be overrating him by calling '07 a "really good" year.

Most likely, though, he won't fall off the table this year. And that would make two straight years as the best player in the AL, and 3 great seasons by age 27. That seems like a pretty good start to a HoF career.

[sgrosm2]

1. Albert Pujols
2. Hanley Ramirez
3. Joe Mauer
4. David Wright
5. Miguel Cabrera
6. Ryan Howard
7. Brian McCann
8. Evan Longoria
9. Ryan Braun
10. Mark Teixeira

[Jsquared83]

If he signs with St. Louis, I hope you are right!

Seeing that we have very similar ballots -what is your take on Howard, Fielder, Teixiera, and Morneau?

If Holliday keeps near Colorado slugging levels, he wont be penalized too much a la the Vinny Castillas of the world. Hitting behind Pujols will help his #s greatly, kinda like Bonds did to Kent.

[dgarza]

1. Albert Pujols
2. Evan Longoria
3. Dustin Pedroia
4. Hanley Ramirez
5. Miguel Cabrera
6. David Wight
7. Ryan Braun
8. Joe Mauer
9. Matt Holliday

I just went with 9. Even Holliday I could have left off.

These are the players who could have filled the #10 spot:
Ryan Howard
Ian Kinsler
Dan Uggla
Robinson Cano
Yunel Escobar

[jjpm74]

2 days in with 5 to go, we have 8 ballots. Not a bad start.

[Brad Harris]

Ryan Braun
Miguel Cabrera
Ryan Howard
Evan Longoria
Joe Mauer
Albert Pujols
Hanley Ramirez
David Wright
Adam Dunn
Grady Sizemore

[Jsquared83]

Albert Pujols
Hanley Ramirez
Joe Mauer
Mark Teixeira
Justin Morneau
Miguel Cabrera
Ryan Braun
David Wright
Evan Longoria

Dark Horse pick: Joey Votto

[Fielding Marshall]

1. Albert Pujols
2. Hanley Ramirez
3. Joe Mauer
4. Grady Sizemore
5. Miguel Cabrera
6. Carl Crawford
7. David Wright
8. Dustin Pedroia
9. Ryan Braun
10. Brian McCann

Plus there's a number of others already mentioned on previous ballots. Really good crop of youngsters right now. Barring injury, my bet is that all 10 make it to the Hall at some point.

Some voters seem to be ranking Longoria too high at this point. We all know he's talented, but as a guy with a 126 OPS+ over two years, an average walk rate, and who's leading the AL in double plays right now (upping his DP rate to do so), he simply is far more talent-based speculation and media buzz at this point. Yes, he's only 24, but his chances seem roughly on par with Ryan Zimmerman at this point (who I don't think has appeared on a ballot at this point).

A better candidate would be Ryan Braun. With each successive year, Braun has increased his walk rate and lowered his DP rate, all the while stealing bases and collecting a 142 OPS+ over 3 years. And he's only 25.

I'm also surprised that Crawford hasn't gotten any mention. Maybe it seems like he's been around forever, but you'd think one of the best 5-Tool talents in the majors might get more mention. Now entering his prime, he's could set career highs in HR, walks, and stolen bases this year (and career guys might note how close he'll likely get to 2,000 hits before age 30).

[CircleChange11]

And that would make two straight years as the best player in the AL

No way I would consider him the best player in the AL.

[Senor Octobre]

No way I would consider him the best player in the AL.

Who do yo have in mind?

[Senor Octobre]

I'm also surprised that Crawford hasn't gotten any mention. Maybe it seems like he's been around forever, but you'd think one of the best 5-Tool talents in the majors might get more mention. Now entering his prime, he's could set career highs in HR, walks, and stolen bases this year (and career guys might note how close he'll likely get to 2,000 hits before age 30).

103 OPS+ for a corner OF won't get you to the hall, even if you are a superb defender.

[dgarza]

I'm also surprised that Crawford hasn't gotten any mention. Maybe it seems like he's been around forever, but you'd think one of the best 5-Tool talents in the majors might get more mention. Now entering his prime, he's could set career highs in HR, walks, and stolen bases this year (and career guys might note how close he'll likely get to 2,000 hits before age 30).Carl Crawford's traditional stats don't look too shabby, but his career OPS+ 103 does not look so promising for a left fielder.

[dgarza]

Some voters seem to be ranking Longoria too high at this point. We all know he's talented, but as a guy with a 126 OPS+ over two years, an average walk rate, and who's leading the AL in double plays right now (upping his DP rate to do so), he simply is far more talent-based speculation and media buzz at this point. Yes, he's only 24, but his chances seem roughly on par with Ryan Zimmerman at this point (who I don't think has appeared on a ballot at this point).

Longoria's 126 OPS over two years is better than any of Zimmerman's consecutive two years. To me, that seems more like a possible HOFer than Zimmerman.

[Freakshow]

highest OPS+, 1750+ PA, Played 35% of games at C, 2B, 3B or SS, born 1980+ Cnt Player OPS+ RC OBP SLG BrYr PA From To
+----+-----------------+----+----+-----+-----+----+-----+----+----+
1 Miguel Cabrera 141 752 .382 .542 1983 4197 2003 2009
2 David Wright 139 644 .393 .526 1982 3511 2004 2009
3 Hanley Ramirez 138 475 .384 .531 1983 2523 2005 2009
4 Joe Mauer 134 464 .403 .476 1983 2747 2004 2009
5 Brian McCann 123 344 .360 .502 1984 2174 2005 2009
6 Ian Kinsler 114 315 .350 .475 1982 2068 2006 2009
7 Dan Uggla 114 366 .342 .482 1980 2468 2006 2009
8 Ryan Zimmerman 113 341 .345 .471 1984 2403 2005 2009
9 Robinson Cano 110 390 .336 .472 1982 2814 2005 2009
10 Dustin Pedroia 110 287 .370 .452 1983 1880 2006 2009
11 Hank Blalock 104 517 .332 .468 1980 3721 2002 2009
12 Kelly Johnson 104 250 .347 .432 1982 1838 2005 2009
13 Russell Martin 104 288 .373 .414 1983 2143 2006 2009
14 Jorge Cantu 103 325 .321 .459 1982 2493 2004 2009
15 Edwin Encarnacion 101 280 .343 .447 1983 2016 2005 2009
16 Jhonny Peralta 101 413 .335 .433 1982 3232 2003 2009
17 Jose Reyes 101 521 .337 .435 1983 3651 2003 2009
18 Aaron Hill 100 308 .337 .429 1982 2396 2005 2009
19 Chad Tracy 100 351 .339 .455 1980 2505 2004 2009
20 Rickie Weeks 99 283 .351 .415 1982 2069 2003 2009
highest OPS+, 1750+ PA, Played 40% of games at 1B, LF, CF, RF, DH or OF, born 1980+ Cnt Player OPS+ RC OBP SLG BrYr PA From To
+----+-----------------+----+----+-----+-----+----+-----+----+----+
1 Albert Pujols 172 1313 .427 .629 1980 5851 2001 2009
2 Prince Fielder 136 458 .379 .541 1984 2560 2005 2009
3 Mark Teixeira 135 797 .378 .542 1980 4406 2003 2009
4 Matt Holliday 132 644 .387 .544 1980 3423 2004 2009
5 Adrian Gonzalez 129 420 .356 .500 1982 2711 2004 2009
6 Justin Morneau 127 554 .353 .509 1981 3480 2003 2009
7 Grady Sizemore 122 574 .366 .485 1982 3496 2004 2009
8 Nick Markakis 120 380 .371 .476 1983 2426 2006 2009
9 Andre Ethier 118 311 .363 .487 1982 2003 2006 2009
10 Curtis Granderson 116 424 .347 .488 1981 2658 2004 2009
11 Nick Swisher 113 411 .356 .455 1980 2908 2004 2009
12 Nate McLouth 109 283 .340 .458 1981 1918 2005 2009
13 Mike Jacobs 106 261 .314 .484 1980 1930 2005 2009
14 Corey Hart 105 269 .325 .475 1982 1947 2004 2009
15 Alexis Rios 104 458 .335 .449 1981 3341 2004 2009
16 Carl Crawford 103 650 .334 .438 1981 4525 2002 2009
17 Austin Kearns 103 442 .353 .427 1980 3338 2002 2009
18 Rocco Baldelli 102 270 .325 .445 1981 1997 2003 2009
19 B.J. Upton 102 275 .356 .413 1984 2014 2004 2009

[Milt on Tilt]

No way I would consider him the best player in the AL.

I, too, would be interested in who you got ahead of Joe. If you add just 3 runs of defensive runs to Joe, which isn't ridiculous since he is regarding as an above average catcher, he is the second most valuable player in the AL behind Alex Rodriguez in the last three calendar years (according to FanGraphs).

Having him in the conversation for best AL player seems better than a knee-jerk reaction to the contrary.

[Jsquared83]

Carl Crawford's traditional stats don't look too shabby, but his career OPS+ 103 does not look so promising for a left fielder.

Crawford is going to head down the Johnny Damon path. Only one way to the HOF, 3k hits.

[CircleChange11]

That would be sad if Damon gets into the HoF just because he got 3K hits. When you play 18 years with 620 ABs/Season, it's just not the same. Making the HoF as a 2-time All-Star?

[CircleChange11]

Having him in the conversation for best AL player seems better than a knee-jerk reaction to the contrary.

You're probably right. I likely over-emphasized the shortness of his career in my thinking. He's no longer a 'young player' but in 'in the middle' (so to speak of his career). The year he's having THIS year puts him right in the middle of the conversation, perhaps at the top.

But ...
2007 - .293-7-60
2008 - .328-9-85

The best player in the league doesn't do that. The best catcher, sure. The best player ... no. But, with the way his average (and power) is increasing while still walking a lot and striking out very little, he is "right there" as developing into THE best player in the AL without it even being much of a discussion.

[dgarza]

Crawford is going to head down the Johnny Damon path. Only one way to the HOF, 3k hits.You know what's interesting? Through his 1st 8 seasons, Roberto Clemente only had a 105 OPS+ with 1230 hits (very similar to Crawford).

[CircleChange11]

You know what's interesting? Through his 1st 8 seasons, Roberto Clemente only had a 105 OPS+ with 1230 hits (very similar to Crawford).

That's a rather selective way of looking at it. Clemente's 1st 5 years were very 'Willie McGee-esque".

However starting at 1961, Roberto ran off ...

11 All-Star selections in 12 years
12 consecutive Gold Gloves
1 MVP
7 Top 10 MVP Votes
10 Top 15 MVP Votes

I don't see the two situations as very comparable. Not to mention Clemente was a pioneer of sorts for Latin-born players, and as an Ambassador for the sport of legendary proportions.

That's DOMINATING an era.

[STLCards2]

That's a rather selective way of looking at it. Clemente's 1st 5 years were very 'Willie McGee-esque".

However starting at 1961, Roberto ran off ...

11 All-Star selections in 12 years
12 consecutive Gold Gloves
1 MVP
7 Top 10 MVP Votes
10 Top 15 MVP Votes

I don't see the two situations as very comparable. Not to mention Clemente was a pioneer of sorts for Latin-born players, and as an Ambassador for the sport of legendary proportions.

That's DOMINATING an era.

He isn't saying that Clemente and Crawford are (or will be) equal as players. He is saying that based on his current numbers, you are assuming a Damon-like career path, but that is no certainty as the career path of Clemente shows. I am sure dgarza would not place money on Crawford's career equaling Clemente (nor is anybody else here outside of maybe Fieling Marshal really advocating Crawford's HOF chances) - he is only making a point regarding the difficulty of projecting career paths. Unless I am misinterpreting dgarza's intentions.

[nerfan]

Why is everyone hatin' on my man David Wright? He's got a 139 OPS+ from third base, and plays an average third base. He's quite the player, if you didn't know. He's definitely better than guys like Longoria, Crawford, Ryan Howard, McCann. I'd only put him behind Pujols and Hanley Ramirez at this point, and possibly below Mauer, who is hitting way over his head right now.

[CircleChange11]

He isn't saying that Clemente and Crawford are (or will be) equal as players. He is saying that based on his current numbers, you are assuming a Damon-like career path, but that is no certainty as the career path of Clemente shows. I am sure dgarza would not place money on Crawford's career equaling Clemente (nor is anybody else here outside of maybe Fieling Marshal really advocating Crawford's HOF chances) - he is only making a point regarding the difficulty of projecting career paths. Unless I am misinterpreting dgarza's intentions.

I know. I wasn't really arguing with him.

Shoot, I think Carl Crawford is far ahead of Clemente on route to the HoF. The key to Clemente is that he actually improved as time went on and his 'rate of decrease' was very slow.

In terms of Crawford, his triples and stolen bases as a 'speed guy' is rather impressive in this era. Also as a speed guy his # of non-HR XBase hits are impressive, and he has a good average, and while not a GG winner yet, he's got a rep as a good defensive player. The key for him is the health of his legs, because the guy only walks 30ish times per year. There's only one direction for Crawford to go (decreased production), IMO. So, rather than 'get better; Carl will likely 'slow down'. But, who knows he may have some "Rickey" in him. He's definitely one to watch.

[STLCards2]

Why is everyone hatin' on my man David Wright? He's got a 139 OPS+ from third base, and plays an average third base. He's quite the player, if you didn't know. He's definitely better than guys like Longoria, Crawford, Ryan Howard, McCann. I'd only put him behind Pujols and Hanley Ramirez at this point, and possibly below Mauer, who is hitting way over his head right now.

I'm not haitn'

"#4. David Wright"

We all know what it is about: the lack of homeruns this year. If Wright played in Philadelphia and had 20 homeruns like everybody on that squad while playing decent 3B in N.Y. while hitting .300/.370 instead of .330/.410 - they would be pushing for an MVP for him around the country. No matter how far we come in data anlaysis, many, many people can't get over seeing a lack of homeruns regardless of enviornment or other forms of production.

[CircleChange11]

Why is everyone hatin' on my man David Wright? He's got a 139 OPS+ from third base, and plays an average third base. He's quite the player, if you didn't know. He's definitely better than guys like Longoria, Crawford, Ryan Howard, McCann. I'd only put him behind Pujols and Hanley Ramirez at this point, and possibly below Mauer, who is hitting way over his head right now.

David Wright can't "win for losing" in the media market he's in. He is either 'too nice', 'too smiley', 'too quiet' or 'isn't enough of a leader' or 'doesn't hit enough HRs', etc. IMO, alot of this stuff is said by guys that have never played the darn game.

DWright has "Manny Stats" (i.e., .300-30-100 every year). I'd say he has "Pujols Stats" but he'd need to reduce his K's by half. :D

How people hate on David Wright, I don't know. From my vantage point he seems to do darn near 'everything right' (no pun).

Once Delgado gets out, Wright might be a 1B, to prolong his career and reduce the wear and tear of defense.

If you take DWright's current career stats and project them based on players that had similar starts, he has to be a HoF lock. Can we really expect "more" from him?

many, many people can't get over seeing a lack of homeruns regardless of enviornment or other forms of production.

Great point. The same people don't notice Ibanez and Werth and see "park effects" (park factor).

[PVNICK]

Since Freakshow went through the effort of posting a list here goes:
1. Pujols
2. Mauer
3. Hanley
4. Wright
5. Braun
6. Texeira
7. Cabrera
8. Pedroia
9. Longoria
10. Reyes

I swapped in Longoria for Morneau at the last minute and left Reyes in there.
It's too soon on the Uptons. I had Sizemore up there but on second thought pulled him out and put Braun up there. Is Sizemore as good as Edmonds? I don't know? did anyone ever once speak of him like Fred Lynn was spoken of for his first 5-7 years? Not that I'm aware of.

[dgarza]

He isn't saying that Clemente and Crawford are (or will be) equal as players. He is saying that based on his current numbers, you are assuming a Damon-like career path, but that is no certainty as the career path of Clemente shows. I am sure dgarza would not place money on Crawford's career equaling Clemente (nor is anybody else here outside of maybe Fieling Marshal really advocating Crawford's HOF chances) - he is only making a point regarding the difficulty of projecting career paths. Unless I am misinterpreting dgarza's intentions.
Well, kind of. That part of it.

It just struck me how "average" Clemente was for his 1st 8 seasons.
For a future HOFer, 8 years is a long time not to look like a future HOFer.

Crawford is going to have to really step it up to get on a HOF path.
Clemente's career path is rather unusual.

There was only 1 other HOFer whose 1st 8 seasons were also somewhat similar to Crawford's. That was Lloyd Waner.

[Jsquared83]

I'm surprised no one's mentioned Nick Markakis. Doesn't put up huge numbers as of yet but def one of the most talented young players in the leage. On pace for another 20/100/.300 year with a cannon of an arm from right. Just entering his prime, this is def someone to watch over the next 5 or so years.

[Cougar]

I started off by identifying just about everyone reasonable, in no particular order (I'm sure there's one or two I've missed):

C: J. Mauer, B. McCann, R. Martin

1b: A. Pujols, M. Teixeira, M. Cabrera, J. Morneau, R. Howard, P. Fielder, A. Gonzalez

2b: D. Pedroia, I. Kinsler

3b: D. Wright, E. Longoria, R. Zimmerman

SS: H. Ramirez, T. Tulowitski, J.J. Hardy, J. Reyes

LF: C. Crawford, M. Holliday, A. Dunn, R. Braun

CF: C. Granderson, G. Sizemore

RF: N. Markakis, C. Hart


A total of 27 "HOF prospects" below 30.


I'm going to pull out the ones I don't think will age well, who got off to too late a start, or where I subjectively just think they're a cut below:

C: J. Mauer, B. McCann, R. Martin

1b: A. Pujols, M. Teixeira, M. Cabrera, J. Morneau, A. Gonzalez

2b: D. Pedroia

3b: D. Wright, E. Longoria, R. Zimmerman

SS: H. Ramirez, T. Tulowitski

LF: C. Crawford, M. Holliday, A. Dunn, R. Braun

CF: G. Sizemore

RF: N. Markakis


Cut the list to 20, with some regrets (notably Ryan Howard)


I could be fairly satisfied with any of these 20, but since I have to pick 10:

1. Albert Pujols (duh)
2. Mark Teixeira (he still seems to be getting better)
3. Miguel Cabrera (a hitting machine)
4. Justin Morneau (an RBI machine; stole Jeter's MVP)
5. Joe Mauer (a GG catcher who hits .325 with reasonable power and plate discipline)
6. Hanley Ramirez (unreal skill set)
7. David Wright (consistently excellent in all phases; '09 power drought is a fluke)
8. Carl Crawford (imagine a better version of Lou Brock)
9. Adam Dunn (having perhaps his best season...power hitters often peak a little late [Frank Howard comes to mind]; he could be getting better.)
10. Ryan Braun (A monstrous hitting talent with gorgeous Triple Crown production; found a home in LF; still improving)

comments on others:

Dustin Pedroia: The last cut: He's quickly putting together the classic middle infield peak for a HOF case. He;s just not as talented as the players above, so it's less likely he'll sustain his value. He makes the utmost of what he's got, though.

McCann and Martin: perennial All-Stars at catcher; solid players...may need a breakout season or two to separate themselves.

Adrian Gonzalez: His odds will improve dramatically the sooner he escapes from Petco purgatory. As good as anyone.

Longoria & Zimmerman: Obviously very good players at young ages. I'd like to see a couple more seasons and some steady improvement before I start carving his plaque.

Sizemore: Players seem to age faster in CF than at other positions. He's been inconsistent in Cleveland, along with everyone else; part of it has been his miscasting as a leadoff hitter. That team needs a visit from Supernanny or something; at the very least Wedge needs to go, like, yesterday.

Markakis: Standards are high at the corner OF slots, and he hasn't done quite enough yet to distinguish himself from the pack. Stuck in another dysfunctional organization.

Tulowitski: Has anyone brought this guy up yet? Awesome rookie season, he and Holliday lead the Rockies to the pennant; has a sophomore slump and everyone forgets about him. He's back; on a 30 HR, 20 SB pace while playing a GG caliber SS, and he's only 24.

Holliday: His career from ages 24-29 eyeballs like a perfect bell curve. I think he'll continue to be a solid player for several years, but I suspect his best days are behind him. That doesn't mean Scott Boras won't get nine figures out of someone this winter, though.

[Cougar]

Justin Morneau is wildly inconsistent, from half to half and year to year, and he doesn't post flashy numbers. His numbers pale in comparison to many first basemen in this era, and I don't think he's going to get much better. Though, to be fair, he's been great this season and his numbers are a bit better away from the Metrodome, so he may improve with the move.


http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/morneju01.shtml

Wildly inconsistent?? Really?

I see some season-to-season fluctuation here (2008 had some home runs turn into doubles for whatever reason), but pretty much the last four seasons you've got a guy producing well-above average offense and generating lots of runs.

I'm not even a big Morneau guy, but you've got to give him props for maintaining a steady level of production.

[CircleChange11]

1. Albert Pujols (duh)
2. Mark Teixeira (he still seems to be getting better)
3. Miguel Cabrera (a hitting machine)
4. Justin Morneau (an RBI machine; stole Jeter's MVP)
5. Joe Mauer (a GG catcher who hits .325 with reasonable power and plate discipline)
6. Hanley Ramirez (unreal skill set)
7. David Wright (consistently excellent in all phases; '09 power drought is a fluke)
8. Carl Crawford (imagine a better version of Lou Brock)
9. Adam Dunn (having perhaps his best season...power hitters often peak a little late [Frank Howard comes to mind]; he could be getting better.)
10. Ryan Braun (A monstrous hitting talent with gorgeous Triple Crown production; found a home in LF; still improving)

Teixeira is also playing in a park that is MADE for LHBs, and as a switch hitter facing many more RHP than LHP ... his power numbers should continue to go up.

I'm not sure about Morneau and Dunn. I'm just not sure that Morneau is going to continue his pace for another deacade, but if he does, he's "right there". Dunn bothers me, because while he racked up the HRs, he doesn't seem to have the 'star power' to realy stand out among the other great HR hitters of this era, namely because other hit HRs and walk, he doesn't do much, and if that is all you, you need to be more in the Ryan Howard category. I don;t think the HR milestones are going to carry as much weight for this generation as it did previously. We've seen 50, 60, and even 70 HRs seasons, so I'm not sure a good string of 40 HR seasons is going to have the effect that some others think it will.

IMO, for Dunn to be 'worthy', he'll need to pretty duplicate his career for the next decade and get "Jim Thome" numbers. Whether he can do that or not, we'll see.

[Cougar]

Teixeira is also playing in a park that is MADE for LHBs, and as a switch hitter facing many more RHP than LHP ... his power numbers should continue to go up.

I'm not sure about Morneau and Dunn. I'm just not sure that Morneau is going to continue his pace for another deacade, but if he does, he's "right there". Dunn bothers me, because while he racked up the HRs, he doesn't seem to have the 'star power' to realy stand out among the other great HR hitters of this era, namely because other hit HRs and walk, he doesn't do much, and if that is all you, you need to be more in the Ryan Howard category. I don;t think the HR milestones are going to carry as much weight for this generation as it did previously. We've seen 50, 60, and even 70 HRs seasons, so I'm not sure a good string of 40 HR seasons is going to have the effect that some others think it will.

IMO, for Dunn to be 'worthy', he'll need to pretty duplicate his career for the next decade and get "Jim Thome" numbers. Whether he can do that or not, we'll see.

Thing is, at the rate he's going right now, Dunn needs about 6-7 years like his past 5-6 to get "Thome numbers". He's not a decade away. That's why I'm so bullish...he doesn't even need to age especially well to get over 500.

I understand where you're coming from on Morneau...I have some skepticism myself, because, well, he just doesn't seem that good. But there seems to be no stopping him, and he's about to have perhaps his finest season. So I'm thinking maybe he is that good.

[CircleChange11]

Thing is, at the rate he's going right now, Dunn needs about 6-7 years like his past 5-6 to get "Thome numbers". He's not a decade away. That's why I'm so bullish...he doesn't even need to age especially well to get over 500.

I understand where you're coming from on Morneau...I have some skepticism myself, because, well, he just doesn't seem that good. But there seems to be no stopping him, and he's about to have perhaps his finest season. So I'm thinking maybe he is that good.

500 HRs is tough to argue with ... especially if he gets to 550 without steroid allegations (I've never heard any real speculation on Dunn).

I'm curious as to how Dunn will age, and perhaps that's my overall reservation. Right now he has 307 Hrs, in a 29yo body that seem older than it is. He's a big, big, dude that hasn't experienced anything big with his back or knees yet. I'm certainly not rooting for him to "age like McGwire" - without PEDs- or anything like that.

Everyone seems to like Dunn, just like everyone seems to like Thome ... big guys that hit a lot of homers and for seriious distance. If/When Dunn gets to 500, it will very interesting to have the "Dunn in the HoF" conversations. As of now, he's had a rather "obstacle free" career.

[MyDogSparty]

Pujols
Cabrera
H.Ramirez
Wright
Mauer
Longoria
Zimmerman
Tulowitzki
Braun

[jjpm74]

There's about 1 more day on this if anyone else would like to weigh in. I'll call it over sometime Tuesday and add the poll to the thread at that time.

[brett]

What's the deal with Longoria? Is he some kind of inside joke?

I may go for a top 10, but for now I'll just say that Tulowitzki would be very high, if we hoped for the voters to vote for the right reasons.

In '07 he should have been a LOCK for the gold glove, he was the most valuable rookie (I see Braun winning as OK because ROY is about potential) and SABRMatt has him as the PCA MVP with his incredible defense that year, combined with great hitting for a shortstop.

From a value perspective, he could probably hit as poorly as in '08 (86 OPS+) and STILL be an all-star level SS if he maintains most of his defense. What I'm saying is that he doesn't even need to hit to be very valuable. With a 120 OPS+ like this year, well its a hall of fame season-possibly better than any of Jeter's years! (though we'll have to wait and see what the defensive metrics say at the end of the year).

I would draft Tulo. If he hits .260 with 12 home runs a year he's very valuable, and if he hits .290 with 30 home runs, he's among the most valuable players in the game. At 24 he may have a Ripken like career, but with even better fielding.

[brett]

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/morneju01.shtml

Wildly inconsistent?? Really?

I see some season-to-season fluctuation here (2008 had some home runs turn into doubles for whatever reason), but pretty much the last four seasons you've got a guy producing well-above average offense and generating lots of runs.

I'm not even a big Morneau guy, but you've got to give him props for maintaining a steady level of production.

Morneau has a 126 OPS+ as a first baseman. If he were Keith Hernandez, with the glove he would not deserve the hall (since he's not as good a hitter or runner as Hernandez either).

[brett]

Pujols is a hall of fame lock. Question is top 30, top 20 or top 10.

H. Ramirez
Cabrera
Mauer
Wright
I EXPECT to be in the hall of fame but that's largely instinctual.

Tulowitski
should be on track if his defense was properly recognized
Prince Fielder

Braun
may get in, but he's not as good as most think. He's still not walking enough and he was such a poor fielder in '07 that he almost cancelled out his offensive value.

Howard (I love his all-fields power but he's getting old fast)
Holliday

[jjpm74]

Times up for this part. We ended up with a good list of 17 players who ended up on at least 2 ballots. Those are the players we'll be looking at for the ranking stage. Since we have a small group, We'll go with vote for 5 1 week long polls and break ties with runoff polls if necessary. I'll start a new thread and poll shortly.

[mwiggins]

Morneau has a 126 OPS+ as a first baseman. If he were Keith Hernandez, with the glove he would not deserve the hall (since he's not as good a hitter or runner as Hernandez either).

His OPS+ is still being dragged down quite a bit by his awful 2005 season. Since then, it's been 137. He should easily end up with an OPS+ higher than 126, even after his decline.

Besides, to most voters, Morneau's career stats will likely look much more impressive than Hernandez's. He'll (most likely) have a lot more HR's, and lot more RBI, a similar BA, more hits, and probably a better record in MVP voting and more All-Star game appearances.

Whether he'll be more deserving of the Hall than Keith, that is another question.