Today's players with 250+ steals: 2009 edition

[Cowtipper]

Last year, when I ran this "poll" (although I forgot to actually affix a poll to it:o) there were 18 current players with 250 or more stolen bases. Today, there are 20 players with 250 or more stolen bases. Those players are as follows, along with their runs, hits, HR, RBIs and batting averages:

Juan Pierre, 452 SB, 788 R, 1635 H, 13 HR, 381 RBI, .301 AVG
Omar Vizquel, 389 SB, 1373 R, 2683 H, 77 HR, 900 RBI, .273 AVG
Johnny Damon, 370 SB, 1447 R, 2369 H, 200 HR, 972 RBI, .288 AVG
Luis Castillo, 353 SB, 952 R, 1772 H, 27 HR, 411 RBI, .292 AVG
Carl Crawford, 350 SB, 626 R, 1236 H, 80 HR, 479 RBI, .295 AVG
Bobby Abreu, 340 SB, 1233 R, 2057 H, 248 HR, 1152 RBI, .301 AVG
Ichiro Suzuki, 336 SB, 942 R, 1955 H, 79 HR, 495 RBI, .333 AVG
Jimmy Rollins, 315 SB, 907 R, 1559 H, 135 HR, 590 RBI, .274 AVG
Jose Reyes, 301 SB, 551 R, 960 H, 63 HR, 325 RBI, .286 AVG
Mike Cameron, 293 SB, 982 R, 1560 H, 256 HR, 901 RBI, .250 AVG
Derek Jeter, 293 SB, 1533 R, 2664 H, 217 HR, 1045 RBI, .316 AVG
Alex Rodriguez, 290 SB, 1648 R, 2466 H, 572 HR, 1663 RBI, .304 AVG
Carlos Beltran, 286 SB, 1075 R, 1686 H, 271 HR, 1027 RBI, .283 AVG
Edgar Renteria, 285 SB, 1127 R, 2153 H, 129 HR, 856 RBI, .288 AVG
Ray Durham, 273 SB, 1249 R, 2054 H, 192 HR, 875 RBI, .277 AVG
Chone Figgins, 269 SB, 561 R, 982 H, 29 HR, 323 RBI, .292 AVG
Rafael Furcal, 265 SB, 842 R, 1428 H, 88 HR, 447 RBI, .285 AVG
Alfonso Soriano, 256 SB, 856 R, 1490 H, 289 HR, 753 RBI, .280 AVG
Gary Sheffield, 253 SB, 1632 R, 2675 H, 509 HR, 1669 RBI, .292 AVG
Scott Podsednik, 251 SB, 451 R, 805 H, 32 HR, 228 RBI, .274 AVG

Guys that dropped off the list from last year are Kenny Lofton, Barry Bonds and Reggie Sanders. New guys on the list are Scott Podsednik, Gary Sheffield, Alfonso Soriano, Chone Figgins and Jose Reyes. Some players that just missed being on the list were Brian Roberts and Dave Roberts (who probably will never make it considering he isn't even with a big league team). There's quite a drop-off between Dave Roberts and the next closest guy - Roberts has 243 SB, the next closest guy in Randy Winn with 202.

So, which of these guys do you think will reach the Hall of Fame?

[Cowtipper]

How do you guys feel about Juan Pierre? I think he actually might have a shot at 3,000 hits. Do you think a guy who has 3,000 hits, but only an OPS+ of 85, should get in the Hall of Fame?

[brett]

How do you guys feel about Juan Pierre? I think he actually might have a shot at 3,000 hits. Do you think a guy who has 3,000 hits, but only an OPS+ of 85, should get in the Hall of Fame?




No. But a couple of issues.

A lot of his hits are infield hits, brining his value down even more.

His OB% is a little above average and it gets underrated in OPS+.

He is not as good an offensive player as Ozzie Smith, and I think he's a below average centerfielder. He gets to balls, but his arm is terribly weak.

He might be a dead average major league player with the speed factored in.

[Senor Octobre]

Are these polls about who we think WILL be HOFers, or who SHOULD be HOFers?

[Cowtipper]

Will reach. But by default, they are somewhat who you think SHOULD reach as well.

[STLCards2]

Will reach. But by default, they are somewhat who you think SHOULD reach as well.

No, not by default at all. I will not vote for a "should player", if I don't feel they will get in (Tim Raines, etc.) in a "will they" poll.

[Cowtipper]

No, not by default at all. I will not vote for a "should player", if I don't feel they will get in (Tim Raines, etc.) in a "will they" poll.

Okay, I'm wrong.

[KCGHOST]

I went with Ichiro, Jeter, Arod, and Sheffield. Not sure how the anti-PED's faction of the BBWAA will treat Sheffield, though. ARod has enough time before election that he will probably be "rehabilitated".

For Pierre to get 3K hits he is going to have to get out of LA and with his contract that will be tough.

[History Of Baseball Fan]

I can't really say who would get into the HOF because we don't know exactly how many of them used PEDs. If Jeter and Ichiro are clean, they'll be the first ones in the Hall out of that list.

[nerfan]

Jeter, Arod, Ichiro, Beltran, Sheffield, and unfortunately Vizquel.

[gman5431]

Vizquel, Jeter, A Roid, and Ichiro. Pierre is interesting case because i would probably rank him in the second half of these players but he has a .301 lifetime average and will finish with a boat load of steals.

G Man

[Jsquared83]

No. But a couple of issues.

A lot of his hits are infield hits, brining his value down even more.

His OB% is a little above average and it gets underrated in OPS+.

He is not as good an offensive player as Ozzie Smith, and I think he's a below average centerfielder. He gets to balls, but his arm is terribly weak.

He might be a dead average major league player with the speed factored in.

Pierre has surprisingly a lot of black ink already, mostly from steals, ABs and PAs. That OPS+ is awful but he's def on a 3000 hit pace and throw in about 7-800 SBs and I think we're all gonna be surprised at how much support he receives if he remains productive into his mid-late 30s.

[Paul Wendt]

250 steals are not many. Stealing is down from 25 years ago, up from 50 years ago. Even in this middling time for thiefs, Carl Crawford did 250 in five seasons.

There are more players with 2000 hits than with 250 steals, but the hits are rightly considered a greater achievement. Because steals are discretionary a few players steal many more bases than the average and those players are able to climb the all-time ranks quickly
--and get into Hall of Fame conversations quickly, here at BBF ;)
--but they don't make much progress toward Hall of Fame careers that way.

[Blackhat]

I went with Jeter, A-Rod, Ichiro and Sheffield.

I think the first three are going to be first ballot, unless the writers want to make an example of A-Rod, then he'll wait a few years. In all honesty though, I think his transgressions will be forgiven by the time he retires. I believe Sheffield will get in, but will have to wait a few years.

I'm on the fence for Vizquel. I was never a fan, but he's had a long, solid career and is regarded as a very good fielder, whether the reputation is deserved or not. The writers will have a hard time ignoring all those gold gloves. The 2700 hits at SS won't hurt him either.

[538280]

I voted for Vizquel, Ichiro, Jeter, A-Rod, and Sheffield. Those are the guys I think WILL eventually get in. If it was who I think SHOULD get it I would have voted for Bobby Abreu, Jeter, A-Rod, and Sheffield. Carlos Beltran and Jose Reyes I also think have a shot but it entirely depends on what they do with the rest of their careers and so I can't call them a HOFer now. Sheffield I really hope makes it, he's one of the top 50 players of all time. Hopefully the BBWAA isn't ignorant about him as he seems to be underappreciated historically even not mentioning the steroid issue.

Vizquel I don't think will be deserving at all, but I have heard him referred to as a future HOFer numerous times by media types and so I think he will eventually get in. To me he is probably a little better than the average player over his career. He's a well below average hitter and not that great a baserunner, and while he's been regarded as a special fielder stats haven't backed up that reputation very well. Guys like Bert Campaneris and Dave Concepcion IMO are better than Vizquel. Campaneris is a better hitter and a much better baserunner, close as a fielder. Concepcion is probably a little better in the field, a little better hitter. Those guys aren't really HOFers to me. Luis Aparicio is probably the closest player to Vizquel, and he's in the HOF, but I don't think he should be. He's a well below average offensive player even with his baserunning, and Vizquel is essentially the same as a hitter but not near the runner. As fielders they're both really good but probably overrated. IMO, neither is a HOFer but Vizquel is clearly worse than Aparicio.

I've had many discussions about Ichiro and while he is having arguably his best season as we speak I still think he's very overrated. He's simply not that great of an offensive player. He's good at getting on base, but hardly great thanks to his rarely walking. He's not a guy who's usually among the leaders in OBP. As he has well below average power so his SLG is basically average despite his BA. With his baserunning he's solid above average offensively from a corner OF, that's it. I understand he is an aesthetically impressive player and he is one of the first Japanese superstars and all that but at the end of the day I just don't think he's that valuable a player. I may still think he's a HOFer due to those things but if I were making a straight best players HOF I don't think he'd make it unless he keeps it up this year and has a lot more years like this year, which I think is very unlikely.

[Edgartohof]

Vizquel I don't think will be deserving at all, but I have heard him referred to as a future HOFer numerous times by media types and so I think he will eventually get in. To me he is probably a little better than the average player over his career. He's a well below average hitter and not that great a baserunner, and while he's been regarded as a special fielder stats haven't backed up that reputation very well.

I've never been a big fan of fielding stats - they miss SO much. Honestly, I say the best way to see how good of a fielder someone is, is to actually WATCH them. Now I don't know if you have actually seen Vizquel play much, but he is amazing out there.

Just to show, the other day while playing against the M's, he made countless plays look effortless . . . at that is at the age of 43!!! Sure he isn't what he once was, but at 43, I am willing to say that he is still better than a number of other Shortstops in the game right now!

[Jsquared83]

I voted for Vizquel, Ichiro, Jeter, A-Rod, and Sheffield. Those are the guys I think WILL eventually get in. If it was who I think SHOULD get it I would have voted for Bobby Abreu, Jeter, A-Rod, and Sheffield. Carlos Beltran and Jose Reyes I also think have a shot but it entirely depends on what they do with the rest of their careers and so I can't call them a HOFer now. Sheffield I really hope makes it, he's one of the top 50 players of all time. Hopefully the BBWAA isn't ignorant about him as he seems to be underappreciated historically even not mentioning the steroid issue.

Vizquel I don't think will be deserving at all, but I have heard him referred to as a future HOFer numerous times by media types and so I think he will eventually get in. To me he is probably a little better than the average player over his career. He's a well below average hitter and not that great a baserunner, and while he's been regarded as a special fielder stats haven't backed up that reputation very well. Guys like Bert Campaneris and Dave Concepcion IMO are better than Vizquel. Campaneris is a better hitter and a much better baserunner, close as a fielder. Concepcion is probably a little better in the field, a little better hitter. Those guys aren't really HOFers to me. Luis Aparicio is probably the closest player to Vizquel, and he's in the HOF, but I don't think he should be. He's a well below average offensive player even with his baserunning, and Vizquel is essentially the same as a hitter but not near the runner. As fielders they're both really good but probably overrated. IMO, neither is a HOFer but Vizquel is clearly worse than Aparicio.

I've had many discussions about Ichiro and while he is having arguably his best season as we speak I still think he's very overrated. He's simply not that great of an offensive player. He's good at getting on base, but hardly great thanks to his rarely walking. He's not a guy who's usually among the leaders in OBP. As he has well below average power so his SLG is basically average despite his BA. With his baserunning he's solid above average offensively from a corner OF, that's it. I understand he is an aesthetically impressive player and he is one of the first Japanese superstars and all that but at the end of the day I just don't think he's that valuable a player. I may still think he's a HOFer due to those things but if I were making a straight best players HOF I don't think he'd make it unless he keeps it up this year and has a lot more years like this year, which I think is very unlikely.

Concerning Ichiro, I think he chooses to not swing for the fences. He trades off power for a .335 average. Potentially, he could be a 20+ HR guy but at what cost to his BA?

[brett]

I've had many discussions about Ichiro and while he is having arguably his best season as we speak I still think he's very overrated. He's simply not that great of an offensive player. He's good at getting on base, but hardly great thanks to his rarely walking. He's not a guy who's usually among the leaders in OBP. As he has well below average power so his SLG is basically average despite his BA. With his baserunning he's solid above average offensively from a corner OF, that's it. I understand he is an aesthetically impressive player and he is one of the first Japanese superstars and all that but at the end of the day I just don't think he's that valuable a player. I may still think he's a HOFer due to those things but if I were making a straight best players HOF I don't think he'd make it unless he keeps it up this year and has a lot more years like this year, which I think is very unlikely.

I have come to believe that Ichiro is having a hall of fame career despite the less than awesome bat due primarily to 3 things:

1) his relative on-base percentage is 1.145. If we weigh OB% at 1.8x slugging that would put him at about 122 rather than 118.

2) his baserunning. He is around 20 steals above break-even per season. At .2 runs per plus steal, and and about 1.25 runs produced per 162 per OPS+ point (close to 100) that is about 5 more points worth. Then there is his other baserunning. One play by play analysis showed him to have taken something like 36 extra bases above average (not counting steals or infield hits) in his first season. That would be basically the best ever at that. Even if we get just 15 additional bases a year, again that's about 4 OPS+ points worth, or 131.

3) his defense. BBPro has him at +106 runs in the outfield. That's relative to corner outfielders mostly, but again thats about 11 runs per year, or about the same value as 13-14 OPS+ points. An average running/fielding corner outfielder at 142 would have a case, maybe at around 2000 games played. Matt's defensive system makes him even better in the outfield (seems to tend to value corner outfielders more than other systems). He also clearly can handle centerfield. All defensive systems have him as very good there.

I think if he were a career centerfielder, he would be a no doubter.

A negative, of course is the infield hits. My basic change in philosophy has been to give great corner outfielders more defensive credit.

[538280]

I have come to believe that Ichiro is having a hall of fame career despite the less than awesome bat due primarily to 3 things:

1) his relative on-base percentage is 1.145. If we weigh OB% at 1.8x slugging that would put him at about 122 rather than 118.

2) his baserunning. He is around 20 steals above break-even per season. At .2 runs per plus steal, and and about 1.25 runs produced per 162 per OPS+ point (close to 100) that is about 5 more points worth. Then there is his other baserunning. One play by play analysis showed him to have taken something like 36 extra bases above average (not counting steals or infield hits) in his first season. That would be basically the best ever at that. Even if we get just 15 additional bases a year, again that's about 4 OPS+ points worth, or 131.

3) his defense. BBPro has him at +106 runs in the outfield. That's relative to corner outfielders mostly, but again thats about 11 runs per year, or about the same value as 13-14 OPS+ points. An average running/fielding corner outfielder at 142 would have a case, maybe at around 2000 games played. Matt's defensive system makes him even better in the outfield (seems to tend to value corner outfielders more than other systems). He also clearly can handle centerfield. All defensive systems have him as very good there.

I think if he were a career centerfielder, he would be a no doubter.

A negative, of course is the infield hits. My basic change in philosophy has been to give great corner outfielders more defensive credit.

I think Ichiro will be very borderline. A plus for me is that Ichiro played years in Japan which I do think should count to his credit so he really is probably close to 2000 games overall already (how well his Japanese numbers translate to MLB, I'm not really sure, but I'm sure he would have been a quality major leaguer at least). For rate right now Ichiro is probably about the same as an offensive player as Jim Rice. Linear Weights (BtRuns and BBRef) has Ichiro at 17 runs per 162 just for hitting, Rice at 23, 40 steals and 9 CS with standard .22 and .38 values for Linear weights is 5.38 more runs. That makes him almost even with his non-SB baserunning he's ahead. But then there is the infield hit issue so overall he's very similar to Jim Rice on career rate right now. He's obviously better defensively so he's much better than Rice but Rice's rate is over a whole career. Overall though I think Ichiro will be better than Rice because with his time in Japan being factored in he'll probably end up with a significantly longer career. Rice to me is not a HOFer so if Ichiro is a little better than him he'll be borderline.

[Paul Wendt]

I have come to believe that Ichiro is having a hall of fame career despite the less than awesome bat due primarily to 3 things:
...
Even if we get just 15 additional bases a year, again that's about 4 OPS+ points worth, or 131.
What is the basis for this conversion? some correspondence between the counts <extra bases, PA> and the averages <onbase, slugging>?

We can make the first another "average", call it the takebase average.
takebase = (extra bases taken)/PA
For the quoted adjustment, that is about 15/750 = .020

What we need for OPS+ adjustment may be two conversion rates, which will yield the onbase and slugging increments equivalent to any given takebase average.

[JDD]

Throw in walks, and you have something like Bill James' "Secondary Average".

[brett]

What is the basis for this conversion? some correspondence between the counts <extra bases, PA> and the averages <onbase, slugging>?

We can make the first another "average", call it the takebase average.
takebase = (extra bases taken)/PA
For the quoted adjustment, that is about 15/750 = .020

What we need for OPS+ adjustment may be two conversion rates, which will yield the onbase and slugging increments equivalent to any given takebase average.

An extra base added to a hit is worth about .33 runs using linear weights. That is the average of the difference between a single and double, a double and triple and a triple and home run. If I remember correctly, about 60% of that is due to the increased chance of the runner eventually scoring, and 40% is due to the hit driving in more. .6 of .33 is .2 runs so the increased runs that the player himself scores by taking an extra base is .2 runs. For a full season, a team of 100 OPS+ hitters would score about 720 runs or 80 runs apiece. That's just .8 runs per OPS+ point for 162 full games played (in a short range diverging more as we get away from 100).

[STLCards2]

In case anybody cares, Ichiro is at about 48 Wins Above Replacement including 2009, so far, according to Smith's WAR. This does not include his Japanes play, which I feel he should get credit for. He should have no problems reaching the 60+ WAR mark, which is pretty safe HOF territory for most all positioned players.

Fo those unfamiliar, WAR is a linear weights measurement that considers: batting runs created (so yes, Ichiro's big BA, lack of walks, and propensity to get IF singles are all included), park factors, GIDP, other baserunning, positional adjustments, defense, and OF arm, and converts these linear weights into runs created/prevented above a replacement player. It then converts the RAA into wins. It does not have a LQ component outside of run environment affecting how many wins each RAA creates.

[jjpm74]

How do you guys feel about Juan Pierre? I think he actually might have a shot at 3,000 hits. Do you think a guy who has 3,000 hits, but only an OPS+ of 85, should get in the Hall of Fame?

It would take an amazing second half to his career for him to get to 3000 hits. If that happens, yes, he probably is a HOFer.

[CircleChange11]

I voted for ....

Ichiro -- he'll likely get 3K hits, has an MVP, and is an all-around great player and fan favorite ... plus there'll be all that "The 1st Japanese player inducted ..." stuff.

Jeter -- He'll have 3K hits and he gets credit for "leading" the Yanks to 4 titles, wheter he deserves all that leadership credit or not. People will remember his jump throws and forget about his average and below fielder rating. He's a great player on a few great teams, including the team that may be the 'greatest of all time'.

ARod -- He's got a shot at 3K and 700 Hrs and 2K RBIs ... a really good shot actually. Like Bonds, they couldn't keep him out even if they wanted to.

Sheffield is a toss up for me. I think, fair or not, it hurts them that he's never been the "face of one team" for very long. His numbers are not, IMO, enough to establish him as "dominant in his era", but just a very good player in a really offensive (no pun intended) era. I don't think 500 HRs is going to mean what it once did (even though you cannot hand wave off that number). Plus, he's not a media favorite and he does have the PED thing, which doesn't work in his favor. If I had a vote today, I'd vote "No".

Abreu needs the 3K hit milestone to even be considered IMO. I don't think he's 'dominated' his era, but if he gets 3K hits with a .300 average, those are two big bargaining chips.

Interesting discussion.

[CircleChange11]

This does not include his Japanes play, which I feel he should get credit for.

Any particular reason you think he should get credit for stats in another league in regards to the MLB Hall of Fame?

If for some reason he doesn;t get to 3K hits, I think many will give him a nudge for being THE dominant player in Japan and just sort of "assume" he would have reached 3K hits in MLB had he been here the whole time.

At this point in time, I don;t favor crediting players for non-mlb experience, because I don't think we have a good grasp on the overall quality of the league (and I'm not sure WBC games really tell us that).

It's an interesting idea, and I am curious as to the basis of your thoughts on the matter.

[jalbright]

When it comes to comparing the Japanese Leagues to MLB, I've tried to to Japan to MLB conversions based on matched PA of guys who played in both leagues (that way, if a guy has 5000 PA one place and 200 the other, he's limited to 200 PA for both, and I try as much as possible to get the 200 closest in time to the other league--but I'm stuck with full season data, so I prorated at that point). The pitching comparisons are only so-so, but in my defense, a) I haven't seen anybody try league to league pitcher conversions, so I had to improvise, and b) pitchers are more erratic year to year than hitters. Overall, the hitting conversions have been fairly good IMHO. You can look up this information on this page. (http://baseballguru.com/jalbright/)

[Paul Wendt]

Throw in walks, and you have something like Bill James' "Secondary Average".

Secondary Average concerns extra bases on hits, one might say "taken" by the batter --the batter's extra bases on extra-base hits.

These are "extra bases taken" by the runner above the batter's bases on hits, if any. One extra base for going first to third on a single (2 - 1, advance two on 1-base hit), scoring from third on an out (1 - 0, advance one on "no base hit"), etc.

Batting, Secondary, Onbase, and Slugging averages all measure performance as a batter-runner.

[mwiggins]

Any particular reason you think he should get credit for stats in another league in regards to the MLB Hall of Fame?



For one thing, there's no such thing as the MLB Hall of Fame.

[Cowtipper]

For one thing, there's no such thing as the MLB Hall of Fame.

Arguing semantics is really annoying.

It is known as the National Baseball Hall of Fame, not the International Baseball Hall of Fame.

[jalbright]

Arguing semantics is really annoying.

It is known as the National Baseball Hall of Fame, not the International Baseball Hall of Fame.

You say arguing semantics is really annoying, and then you proceed to do the very same thing. The question really is do we stay with tradition until the circumstances change, or do we decide we want to honor all the best professional baseball players to play the game? Tradition has won thus far, and will hold the floor at least through a few years after Ichiro is inducted. That may or may not work to bring change. If it doesn't, I think ultimately MLB and NPB will reach some sort of arrangement which allows MLB greater access to the Japanese market. If and when that happens, it won't be long before MLB realizes that honoring NPB players is a way to help ease their entry into that market--and they'll push Cooperstown, which will ultimately comply, as its relationship with MLB is one of its great assets. I won't predict how long it will take for there to be NPB players enshrined in Cooperstown, only that it will happen.

[Cowtipper]

You say arguing semantics is really annoying, and then you proceed to do the very same thing.

That was part of the joke...

Nevermind. I'll get off the stage before anymore eggs are thrown at me.

[mwiggins]

Arguing semantics is really annoying.

It is known as the National Baseball Hall of Fame, not the International Baseball Hall of Fame.

How is Ichiro any different than Torriente? They didn't ignore his play in Cuba, it's right on his HoF plaque.

Besides, once MLB became an international league, and we have Gary Carter in the Hall primarily for his play outside the USA, that kind of renders the idea of it being a "National" ie American HoF moot.

[Blackhat]

Besides, once MLB became an international league, and we have Gary Carter in the Hall primarily for his play outside the USA, that kind of renders the idea of it being a "National" ie American HoF moot.

The difference with guys like Carter is that every game he played was either on an American team or against an American team, therefore he is in the Hall for his contribution to American baseball. The same can't be said for Ichiro.

However, I think that if Ichiro retired today he would be elected into the Hall of Fame (except for the ten year rule). Since the day he got off the boat in Seattle he has been seen as one of the best players on American soil. The writers will overlook his lack of power and propensity for infield hits and vote for him. All they are going to see is 2000 hits and a career .333 batter with a ROY, MVP and bucket full of gold gloves.

Whether they consider his Japanese stats or not is irrelevant. The foreign stats would only help his case, and he won't need the help. He may even get some votes from writers that don't think he's worthy because they'd be afraid that they'll be labelled as discriminating against him for him Asian decent (may be a stretch, but I could see a vote or two because of this).

I would be curious to see what happens if for some reason he doesn't make it through ten years. If he got hit by a bus at the end of this year would people start seriously pushing for his time in Japan to be considered? Would an exception be made for him?

[mwiggins]

Whether they consider his Japanese stats or not is irrelevant. The foreign stats would only help his case, and he won't need the help. He may even get some votes from writers that don't think he's worthy because they'd be afraid that they'll be labelled as discriminating against him for him Asian decent (may be a stretch, but I could see a vote or two because of this).

I would be curious to see what happens if for some reason he doesn't make it through ten years. If he got hit by a bus at the end of this year would people start seriously pushing for his time in Japan to be considered? Would an exception be made for him?

Completely in agreement with you there. He will easily waltz in to the Hall just on the merits of his American League career. He's seen by most as a dominant, elite player - not an overrated player with flashy batting averages who doesn't hit for enough power for a corner OF.

I think an early tragic death, plus his Japanese career, would get him in the Hall even if he had less than 10 years of MLB experience.

[Domenic]

I'm fairly surprised at the lack of support for Beltran. While I think he is a less-certain candidate than Rodriguez, Jeter, Sheffield, and Ichiro, I also think that he is much closer than the voting suggests.

Beltran is a fantastic baserunner and center-fielder, and he's a very good hitter, as well. Take a look at some of his career numbers:

Win Shares - 253
WARP3 - 69.8
EQA - .294
OPS+ - 119

In Beltran's three best seasons, he posted 102 Win Shares or 28.3 WARP3 - both are very good, to say the least. While Ichiro does deserve credit for his time in Japan, it should be noted, as well, that Beltran leads Ichiro in WS, WARP3, and top-three season is both metrics.

[jjpm74]

I'm fairly surprised at the lack of support for Beltran. While I think he is a less-certain candidate than Rodriguez, Jeter, Sheffield, and Ichiro, I also think that he is much closer than the voting suggests.

Beltran is a fantastic baserunner and center-fielder, and he's a very good hitter, as well. Take a look at some of his career numbers:

Win Shares - 253
WARP3 - 69.8
EQA - .294
OPS+ - 119

In Beltran's three best seasons, he posted 102 Win Shares or 28.3 WARP3 - both are very good, to say the least. While Ichiro does deserve credit for his time in Japan, it should be noted, as well, that Beltran leads Ichiro in WS, WARP3, and top-three season is both metrics.

A lot of people are probably in the wait and see school when it comes to Beltran. He's potentially on his way, but lacks an historic peak and has yet to put up the career numbers necessary for a below average (when comparing to HOFers) OPS+ (119) OF to get strong support around here.

[CircleChange11]

He will easily waltz in to the Hall just on the merits of his American League career.

Agree also.

FWIW, when I listed "MLB Hall of Fame", I wasn't suggesting that was it's official title, but rather differentiating it by what it's based on.

They also don't consider a guy's MiLB stats for the Hall of Fame either. H of F status is based on what a player does during his MLB.

The Negro Leagues are the exception because they didn't have the "opportunity" to do so. I also don;t think given the unique situation of the Negro leagues combined with American History events that induction into the HoF for Negro League stars sets any type of precedence that could be applied to other leagues.

IMO, it's not a "general sport" HoF like the Basketball HoF is.

[Domenic]

A lot of people are probably in the wait and see school when it comes to Beltran. He's potentially on his way, but lacks an historic peak and has yet to put up the career numbers necessary for a below average (when comparing to HOFers) OPS+ (119) OF to get strong support around here.

I can understand that.

I voted for Beltran because I don't think he has to do too much more to be considered a Hall of Famer. I don't think it'd be a stretch for him to have a few more seasons like his last three and a half with the Mets, which would probably put him closer to 325 Win Shares and 90 WARP3. Add in a modest decline, and I see him as a clear-cut inductee. I don't think that's terribly optimistic.

[STLCards2]

Any particular reason you think he should get credit for stats in another league in regards to the MLB Hall of Fame?

If for some reason he doesn;t get to 3K hits, I think many will give him a nudge for being THE dominant player in Japan and just sort of "assume" he would have reached 3K hits in MLB had he been here the whole time.

At this point in time, I don;t favor crediting players for non-mlb experience, because I don't think we have a good grasp on the overall quality of the league (and I'm not sure WBC games really tell us that).

It's an interesting idea, and I am curious as to the basis of your thoughts on the matter.

I think everybody else covered my reasoning pretty well. For the record: I wouldn't give somebody a lot of credit for it, but maybe enough to help out a very borderline candidate.

[Cougar]

Just as a point of order: Ray Durham isn't active this season, despite coming off of a fairly decent season.

He's only 37 (born the same month as me), which is not terribly old these days. Declining but still effective veterans like Durham were squeezed out of baseball, this season, essentially by the recession. Teams are more likely to play cheaper youngsters then they are in boom times.

[JDD]

Dang.... dude got laid off...

[Cougar]

Pretty much...and it's the equivalent of of a 58 year old man in upper middle management getting laid off...no one wants a guy that old, with that short a time horizon, who expects to (1) make a certain amount of money, (2) get a certain amount of playing time [or whatever the civilian equivalent is], and (3) receive a certain amount of deference due to his experience.

It's a really tough niche.

[jjpm74]

I can understand that.

I voted for Beltran because I don't think he has to do too much more to be considered a Hall of Famer. I don't think it'd be a stretch for him to have a few more seasons like his last three and a half with the Mets, which would probably put him closer to 325 Win Shares and 90 WARP3. Add in a modest decline, and I see him as a clear-cut inductee. I don't think that's terribly optimistic.

I feel the same way about him and do think that he will eventually be a HOFer when his career is over (unless he goes Jack Clark's route and gets injured a lot over the next 5-6 years).

[mwiggins]

A lot of people are probably in the wait and see school when it comes to Beltran. He's potentially on his way, but lacks an historic peak and has yet to put up the career numbers necessary for a below average (when comparing to HOFers) OPS+ (119) OF to get strong support around here.

He does have two GREAT seasons - 2006 (38 Win Shares, 10.5 WARP3) and 2008 (33 Win Shares, 10.1 WARP3) - and he was on his way to another this year before his injury.

He's hampered by the fact that much of his greatness is tied into his defense and his baserunning/basestealing, which isn't easily apparent when you look at his stat sheet. I mean, look at 2008...a Gold Glove CF who drives in 112 runs, hits 27 HR's, steals 25 bases (at an 89% clip), plays every game but 1, plays for a contender, and has an OPS+ of 129 and he can't even crack the top 20 in MVP voting?

He has been a dominant post season performer, in the two years he's been in the playoffs, which should help him somewhat.

I think it's fairly likely that he'll end up deserving to make the Hall, but just like Raines, he could easily be left out in the cold.

[Jsquared83]

Beltran's OPS+ isnt bad for a GG CF who's on his way to 400 HR/400 SBs. Citi Field is not helping his power #s though. 3 more solid years after this one and he's in.

[STLCards2]

Here is an article that we might be interested in...

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/is-ichiro-heading-for-the-hall-of-fame-which-one/

[nerfan]

Arguing semantics is really annoying.

It is known as the National Baseball Hall of Fame, not the International Baseball Hall of Fame.

So no Toronto Blue Jays can be elected? :laugh

[mwiggins]

Beltran's OPS+ isnt bad for a GG CF who's on his way to 400 HR/400 SBs.

Esp when you compare him to guys like Carey (107 OPS+) and Ashburn (111 OPS+). And given that he's posted an OPS+ of 137 over the past 4 seasons, his career OPS+ is likely to end up higher than it is now. His first couple of seasons and that first year in NY really kill his career rate. Take out those 3 years and his career OPS+ is 130.

[Blackhat]

So no Toronto Blue Jays can be elected? :laugh

Players from the 51st state are allowed.

[Cowtipper]

So no Toronto Blue Jays can be elected? :laugh

Well, it'd be stupid not to allow them in. :D

[538280]

Here's a comparison to Ichiro I was thinking about. I consider Cesar Cedeno to be a HOF caliber player, but he never got much support in the voting and I once opened a poll for him and he didn't do well there either. In his career of about 2000 games Cedeno posted a 123 OPS+, his OBP wasn't quite as good as Ichiro but he had far more power. Over his whole career he was probably a more valuable hitter than Ichiro though it's pretty close. Through about the same number of games as Ichiro's played it's not that close-Cedeno was a legitimately great player when younger and through 1430 games Cedeno had a 130 OPS+, he had two years with OPS+ over 150 and did this while averaging 54 SB per 162 games. He was also a CF and a very good one, a fast runner with good range. So in total I see Cedeno as a better hitter-not the same for average but walking more and with much more power, just as valuable on the bases if not more so, and as a fielder probably not as good for his position but in CF vs. the corner OF. I understand Ichiro is famous, he's universally regarded as a great player, and he'll probably get into the HOF easily, but to me at least he's probably not as good a player as Cedeno. Ichiro was the first big Japanese star, but Cedeno was one of the first great Dominican players. Juan Marichal had gotten a lot of attention as a pitcher but Cedeno was one of the first star position players. There were some such as Rico Carty and the Alous who came before him but when Cedeno had two close to MVP caliber years for the Astros in 1972-73 he was probably the first (Carty had some good years) Dominican position player to reach that level of performance.

[Blackhat]

I really liked Cesar Cedeno when I was a kid, and he is the same type of player as Ichiro. I would never talk down about Cedeno but I do not think he was quite as good as Ichiro is.

Through 1980 Cedeno had a .290 AVG, 1576 hits, 475 SB and 5 Gold Gloves. Very good for 10 full years. If his career ended at that point due to freak injury or death he might have gotten more support. After that point though he lost his speed, BA and OBP.

Cedeno had two great years (1972-1973). a .320 AVG each year, 20+ HR, 35+ doubles, 50+ SB is something that any manager would take from their Gold Glove center fielder in any season. The extra bases and stolen bases look even better considering he only played 139 games each year.

In 1974 his numbers dipped a bit, but were still more than respectable, but for a speed guy, leading off I'd like to see better than a .269 average and .338 OBP.

From 1974 through retirement he only had one .300 season and missed a lot of games. After 1974 he only played 150 games once and had several years with less than 100 games.

Cedeno had a very good start, a couple of great years, then had a good but not HOF caliber career. Both Ichiro and Cedeno had similiar roles. Get on base, be fast, play plus defense. Cedeno never had more than 179 hits in a season, Ichiro has never had less than 200. Ichiro does the job better, but Cedeno had a little more power. Unfortunately power wasn't really in his job description.

[538280]

Cedeno's two great years, which I agree were great, really are what separates him from Ichiro though. He may not have seemed like such a great player after that but he was playing in a very low run environment, low run scoring era and in the Astrodome. From 1974 on he hit for a 118 OPS+, that shows his OBP and SLG in context of his era and park. 118 OPS+ is the same as Ichiro's career mark right now. He may not have hit for a high average but he hit for a lot more power than Ichiro did in context and he walked more as well. In context there really wasn't much difference between them and that's taking out Cedeno's two best years. Including those he's a better hitter than Ichiro over a longer length of time than Ichiro's played thus far, a good CF, and just as good a baserunner.

[Blackhat]

OPS+ for Ichiro and Cedano are very close 118 vs. 123.

Cedano had more power, but not a lot of power. It's kind of like saying Captain Kangaroo is meaner than Mister Rogers. Maybe it's true, but it doesn't really matter. (And for the record, the Cookie Monster would kick Elmo's a*s.)

Cedano didn't score runs and missed lots of games. He (arguably) had a better 2 year peak than Ichiro, but Ichiro has been solid and consistent for 9 seasons now. Ichiro will close his 9th season with nearly as many hits as Cedano got in his 17 year career. Ichiro should finish his tenth season with as many runs scored as Cedano. Cedano's best year in runs scored is equal to Ichiro's worst year.

For both players there job was to get on base and score runs. Ichiro does it better. The fact that Cedano hit a few more extra base hits doesn't make up for it.

[mwiggins]

OPS+ for Ichiro and Cedano are very close 118 vs. 123.

Cedano had more power, but not a lot of power. It's kind of like saying Captain Kangaroo is meaner than Mister Rogers. Maybe it's true, but it doesn't really matter. (And for the record, the Cookie Monster would kick Elmo's a*s.)



He hit 20+ HR's 3 times while playing his home games in the Astrodome in the early 70's. If young Cedano was playing in Ichiro's era, he'd be a 30 HR a year guy. His ISO those 3 seasons was .208. The best ISO Ichiro has ever posted is .133. How does that not matter? Power is power, it's not meaningless just because neither player was Mark McGwire.

For both players there job was to get on base and score runs. Ichiro does it better. The fact that Cedano hit a few more extra base hits doesn't make up for it.

Where do you get that line of reasoning from? Cedano was a middle of the order hitter, while Ichiro is a leadoff hitter. Might as well say "Both players jobs were to drive in runs and to hit for power. Cedano did it better."

[Greg Maddux's Biggest Fan]

Last year, when I ran this "poll" (although I forgot to actually affix a poll to it:o) there were 18 current players with 250 or more stolen bases. Today, there are 20 players with 250 or more stolen bases. Those players are as follows, along with their runs, hits, HR, RBIs and batting averages:

Juan Pierre, 452 SB, 788 R, 1635 H, 13 HR, 381 RBI, .301 AVG
Omar Vizquel, 389 SB, 1373 R, 2683 H, 77 HR, 900 RBI, .273 AVG
Johnny Damon, 370 SB, 1447 R, 2369 H, 200 HR, 972 RBI, .288 AVG
Luis Castillo, 353 SB, 952 R, 1772 H, 27 HR, 411 RBI, .292 AVG
Carl Crawford, 350 SB, 626 R, 1236 H, 80 HR, 479 RBI, .295 AVG
Bobby Abreu, 340 SB, 1233 R, 2057 H, 248 HR, 1152 RBI, .301 AVG
Ichiro Suzuki, 336 SB, 942 R, 1955 H, 79 HR, 495 RBI, .333 AVG
Jimmy Rollins, 315 SB, 907 R, 1559 H, 135 HR, 590 RBI, .274 AVG
Jose Reyes, 301 SB, 551 R, 960 H, 63 HR, 325 RBI, .286 AVG
Mike Cameron, 293 SB, 982 R, 1560 H, 256 HR, 901 RBI, .250 AVG
Derek Jeter, 293 SB, 1533 R, 2664 H, 217 HR, 1045 RBI, .316 AVG
Alex Rodriguez, 290 SB, 1648 R, 2466 H, 572 HR, 1663 RBI, .304 AVG
Carlos Beltran, 286 SB, 1075 R, 1686 H, 271 HR, 1027 RBI, .283 AVG
Edgar Renteria, 285 SB, 1127 R, 2153 H, 129 HR, 856 RBI, .288 AVG
Ray Durham, 273 SB, 1249 R, 2054 H, 192 HR, 875 RBI, .277 AVG
Chone Figgins, 269 SB, 561 R, 982 H, 29 HR, 323 RBI, .292 AVG
Rafael Furcal, 265 SB, 842 R, 1428 H, 88 HR, 447 RBI, .285 AVG
Alfonso Soriano, 256 SB, 856 R, 1490 H, 289 HR, 753 RBI, .280 AVG
Gary Sheffield, 253 SB, 1632 R, 2675 H, 509 HR, 1669 RBI, .292 AVG
Scott Podsednik, 251 SB, 451 R, 805 H, 32 HR, 228 RBI, .274 AVG

Guys that dropped off the list from last year are Kenny Lofton, Barry Bonds and Reggie Sanders. New guys on the list are Scott Podsednik, Gary Sheffield, Alfonso Soriano, Chone Figgins and Jose Reyes. Some players that just missed being on the list were Brian Roberts and Dave Roberts (who probably will never make it considering he isn't even with a big league team). There's quite a drop-off between Dave Roberts and the next closest guy - Roberts has 243 SB, the next closest guy in Randy Winn with 202.

So, which of these guys do you think will reach the Hall of Fame?

Is this poll some kind of joke? Are you telling me that out of a poll conducted 7 days ago, with 40 respondants, only 3 think Bobby Abreu will make the HOF? A number which is exactly the same as Alfonso Soriano?? Omar Viquel has 14 votes but Abreu has 3?? This is just crazy talk :noidea

I generally respect the opinions on Baseball Fever but this is a real head scratcher for me. Just really surprised mainly.

[Blackhat]

Where do you get that line of reasoning from? Cedano was a middle of the order hitter, while Ichiro is a leadoff hitter. Might as well say "Both players jobs were to drive in runs and to hit for power. Cedano did it better."

Maybe my memory fails me, if it does I apologize (getting old sucks), but I remember Cedeno being a leadoff/number 2 guy.

If Cedeno was a middle of the order hitter, and his job was to hit for power and drive in runs, then he wasn't very good at his job. Other than 72-74 he didn't do either.

Regardless, Cedeno had a couple of great years, tremendous potential, then fizzled into an average player that couldn't play every day.

[Freakshow]

Maybe my memory fails me, if it does I apologize (getting old sucks), but I remember Cedeno being a leadoff/number 2 guy.

If Cedeno was a middle of the order hitter, and his job was to hit for power and drive in runs, then he wasn't very good at his job. Other than 72-74 he didn't do either.

Regardless, Cedeno had a couple of great years, tremendous potential, then fizzled into an average player that couldn't play every day.Games started by batting order position.

Cedeno
1st 101
2nd 114
3rd 1061
4th 253
5th 199
6th 54
7th 82
8th 0
9th 0

Suzuki
1st 1351
2nd 0
3rd 13
4th 0
5th 0
6th 0
7th 0
8th 0
9th 0

[Blackhat]

Thank you for correcting me (not sarcasm).

Where did you find that data? Would be a good reference in the future.

[538280]

I generally respect the opinions on Baseball Fever but this is a real head scratcher for me. Just really surprised mainly.

The poll asks who you think will make the HOF, not who you think should. As I said before I think the general consensus from what I've heard from BBWAA types is that Vizquel is a future HOFer, while Abreu doesn't really get much respect. I think Abreu will be much more deserving than Vizquel, but I think Vizquel has a much better shot of actually getting in.

[Greg Maddux's Biggest Fan]

The poll asks who you think will make the HOF, not who you think should. As I said before I think the general consensus from what I've heard from BBWAA types is that Vizquel is a future HOFer, while Abreu doesn't really get much respect. I think Abreu will be much more deserving than Vizquel, but I think Vizquel has a much better shot of actually getting in.

Even so Im surprised to see the skepticism so high. It just goes to prove what poor the public perception of him is. Guess it also proves the power of the media.

[538280]

OPS+ for Ichiro and Cedano are very close 118 vs. 123.

OPS+ is a rate stat. Cedeno did that over about 2000 games, Ichiro has put up that rate over 600-700 less games. It's not as impressive given the playing time of both players.

Cedano had more power, but not a lot of power. It's kind of like saying Captain Kangaroo is meaner than Mister Rogers. Maybe it's true, but it doesn't really matter. (And for the record, the Cookie Monster would kick Elmo's a*s.)

It does matter. Ichiro has a .433 SLG vs. .420 league. Cedeno had a .443 SLG vs. .381 league. The equivalent SLG for Cedeno with Ichiro's league average would be .488. That's 55 points of SLG which is very significant. 1972-1973 Cedeno was 4th and 5th in the league in SLG, given the park he was playing in that's very impressive. He was a very good power hitter, especially when younger. Plus in just pure power, taking out singles, the power difference is much greater. His career relative ISO was 130, Ichiro's so far is 64. It's not comparable at all, Cedeno was a far better power hitter than Ichiro and it's a big difference in their value as players.

Cedano didn't score runs and missed lots of games. He (arguably) had a better 2 year peak than Ichiro, but Ichiro has been solid and consistent for 9 seasons now. Ichiro will close his 9th season with nearly as many hits as Cedano got in his 17 year career. Ichiro should finish his tenth season with as many runs scored as Cedano. Cedano's best year in runs scored is equal to Ichiro's worst year.

Cedeno had 9 years 1972-1980 in which he had a 135 OPS+. In that time he stole 438 bases (60 per 162 games). He also won 5 Gold Gloves 1972-1976 in that time as a center fielder. Ichiro 2001-2009 has had a 118 OPS+ in that time, he is also one of the best basestealers in the league and has won a GG in all those years, albeit in corner OF while Cedeno was a CF. Durability is an advantage for Ichiro, he played more games in that time, he's played almost every game while Cedeno did not. However this doesn't really make up for the offensive difference between them. Despite the missed time for Cedeno Linear Weights still has him 217 runs above average in that time vs. 150 for Ichiro. Per 162 Cedeno is 30 runs above average, Ichiro 18. Even if we say Cedeno averages 130 games a year while Ichiro averages 162 which favors Ichiro Cedeno still is at about 24 runs above average, Ichiro 18. This isn't even getting into the issue with Ichiro's infield hits.

My point isn't even really about who is better though (IMO Cedeno) it's about Cedeno getting just about no support while Ichiro is considered by most to be a first ballot type guy. One guy deserves more support the other is overrated. That's my point.