Today's 300 home run hitters: 2009 edition [Archive]

Cowtipper

07-30-2009, 02:11 PM

Around the start of last season, I ran a poll asking which of today's (current) 300 home run hitters will reach the Hall of Fame. Last year, there were 22 people with 300 home runs currently active - now, there are 23.

The current players with 300 or more home runs are as follows:

(name, home run total, RBI total, batting average)

Ken Griffey, 621 HR, 1801 RBI, .286 BA
Alex Rodriguez, 572 HR, 1663 RBI, .304 BA
Jim Thome, 558 HR, 1547 RBI, .278 BA
Manny Ramirez, 538 HR, 1762 RBI, .315 BA
Gary Sheffield, 509 HR, 1669 RBI, .292 BA
Carlos Delgado, 473 HR, 1512 RBI, .280 BA
Chipper Jones, 421 HR, 1423 RBI, .310 BA
Jason Giambi, 407 HR, 1319 RBI, .282 BA
Vladimir Guerrero, 396 HR, 1289 RBI, .322 BA
Andruw Jones, 388 HR, 1168 RBI, .259 BA
Jim Edmonds, 382 HR, 1176 RBI, .284 BA
Luis Gonzalez, 354 HR, 1439 RBI, .283 BA
Albert Pujols, 353 HR, 1069 RBI, .334 BA
Moises Alou, 332 HR, 1287 RBI, .303 BA
Todd Helton, 321 HR, 1176 RBI, .328 BA
Jermaine Dye, 321 HR, 1054 RBI, .277 BA
Paul Konerko, 318 HR, 1025 RBI, 278 BA
Lance Berkman, 306 HR, 1016 RBI, .300 BA
Richie Sexson, 306 HR, 943 RBI, .261 BA
Troy Glaus, 304 HR, 877 RBI, .256 BA
Adam Dunn, 304 HR, 746 RBI, .249 BA
Ivan Rodriguez, 303 HR, 1250 RBI, .300 BA
David Ortiz, 302 HR, 1024 RBI, .283 BA

Dropping off the list from last time are Barry Bonds, Sammy Sosa, Frank Thomas, Mike Piazza, Jeff Kent, Shawn Green, Reggie Sanders and Steve Finley. New guys are David Ortiz, Ivan Rodriguez, Adam Dunn, Troy Glaus, Richie Sexson, Lance Berkman, Paul Konerko, Jermaine Dye and Albert Pujols.

Last time, the guys that were on the poll both last year that are on it this year got these results:

(Name, percentage):

Ken Griffey, Jr., 95.83%
Alex Rodriguez, 95.83%
Jim Thome, 62.50%
Manny Ramirez, 87.50%
Gary Sheffield, 50%
Carlos Delgado, 20.83%
Chipper Jones, 79.19%
Andruw Jones, 27.08%
Vladimir Guerrero, 83.33%
Jason Giambi, 2.08%
Jim Edmonds, 10.42%
Luis Gonzalez, 4.17%
Moises Alou, 2.08%
Todd Helton, 37.50%

Players that narrowly missed appearing on this list were Carlos Lee, Alfonso Soriano, Brian Giles, Garrett Anderson, Scott Rolen and Miguel Tejada. They'll probably all be on the list this time next year.

Anyway, which of the current 300 home run hitters do you think will reach the Hall of Fame?

Jsquared83

07-30-2009, 02:46 PM

Carlos Lee is sneaking up on some HOF discussion. Not a big OPS+ or MVP shares but a consistant 30/100 guy who is around .300 every year. His counting stats are also building up fairly well.

dgarza

07-30-2009, 02:56 PM

Will reach HOF
Ken Griffey, 621 HR, 1801 RBI, .286 BA
Alex Rodriguez, 572 HR, 1663 RBI, .304 BA
Jim Thome, 558 HR, 1547 RBI, .278 BA
Manny Ramirez, 538 HR, 1762 RBI, .315 BA
Gary Sheffield, 509 HR, 1669 RBI, .292 BA
Chipper Jones, 421 HR, 1423 RBI, .310 BA
Vladimir Guerrero, 396 HR, 1289 RBI, .322 BA
Albert Pujols, 353 HR, 1069 RBI, .334 BA
Todd Helton, 321 HR, 1176 RBI, .328 BA
Ivan Rodriguez, 303 HR, 1250 RBI, .300 BA

Will deserve HOF, but may have a hard time making it
Carlos Delgado, 473 HR, 1512 RBI, .280 BA
Jason Giambi, 407 HR, 1319 RBI, .282 BA
Andruw Jones, 388 HR, 1168 RBI, .259 BA
Jim Edmonds, 382 HR, 1176 RBI, .284 BA
Lance Berkman, 306 HR, 1016 RBI, .300 BA

Will not reach HOF
Luis Gonzalez, 354 HR, 1439 RBI, .283 BA
Moises Alou, 332 HR, 1287 RBI, .303 BA
Jermaine Dye, 321 HR, 1054 RBI, .277 BA
Paul Konerko, 318 HR, 1025 RBI, 278 BA
Richie Sexson, 306 HR, 943 RBI, .261 BA
Troy Glaus, 304 HR, 877 RBI, .256 BA
Adam Dunn, 304 HR, 746 RBI, .249 BA
David Ortiz, 302 HR, 1024 RBI, .283 BA

JDD

07-30-2009, 06:08 PM

I will talk about two guys on this list...

I voted for Thome, but he never looked like a HOFer to me. But he will make it.

On the flip side, I wanted to vote for Edmonds, who looked like a HOFer, but I don't think he will make it. So I voted for who I thought will make it, and not who should (IMHO).

STLCards2

07-30-2009, 06:37 PM

Will reach HOF

Alex Rodriguez, 572 HR, 1663 RBI, .304 BA
Manny Ramirez, 538 HR, 1762 RBI, .315 BA
Gary Sheffield, 509 HR, 1669 RBI, .292 BA

Under what circumstances do you think voters will admit these guys? As of now, the large-majority consensus is that nobody who has failed a test (or surrounded by a heavy cloud, like McGwire) will get in. Do you think they will soften over the years?

JDD

07-30-2009, 07:13 PM

I really don't know if the voters will soften or not. But 1800 RBI is a big number... Raffy Palmeiro made it...

Cowtipper

07-30-2009, 09:56 PM

Wow, I can see support for Andruw Jones has dropped like a lead balloon.

JDD

07-31-2009, 12:14 AM

Errrr.... no, not "support", that would be his batting average on the floor.

Zoso

07-31-2009, 01:28 AM

The Gentleman Masher, Jim Thome.

That's pretty much it.

dgarza

07-31-2009, 06:33 AM

Under what circumstances do you think voters will admit these guys? As of now, the large-majority consensus is that nobody who has failed a test (or surrounded by a heavy cloud, like McGwire) will get in. Do you think they will soften over the years?In the first place, Rodriguez and Ramirez are much more deserving than McGwire based purely on numbers. McGwire has consistantly received low-20s % support. Given that trend and better numbers, Rodriguez and Ramirez might begin in the 40-50% range, but that that's at least 8-10 years down the road.

I have a feeling that this whole "discounting" will look dated 15 years form now. Maybe voters will "boycott" to appear "retro" at that point.
My picks were not based on who's going to get in right away. Some of my picks might need to be on the ballot 15 years to get in. Some might need the VC. But no matter the route, I still see them getting in.

And I myself have not heard of this large-majority consensus. I think most people will actually tell you that they "don't know" or that "yes, they will make the Hall".

Paul Wendt

07-31-2009, 07:00 AM

As of now, the large-majority consensus is that nobody who has failed a test (or surrounded by a heavy cloud, like McGwire) will get in. Do you think they will soften over the years?
Who is in that "large-majority consensus"? Anyone here?

JDD

07-31-2009, 09:29 AM

Not me, I am a member of the silent majority...

STLCards2

07-31-2009, 06:22 PM

Who is in that "large-majority consensus"? Anyone here?

I am talking about real HOF election, not "here." The original post asked us which of these players "will" make the HOF, not who we feel "should" based on our opionions.

As far as the "large-majority consensus", not only can it be seen by McGwire getting less than 25% of the vote (which would have been over 90% without steroid controversy), HOF voters took a poll a couple of years ago, asking if they would ever elect a "user". A huge majority of real voters said they wouldn't. I will try to find this poll and post it.

Over time, things may change, but as of now and thenear future, nonoe of these guys are getting in - like it or not.

I still can't find the poll I am referring to, but I did find polls in which only 30% of real said they would vote for Clemens. I did find a poll by real voters who were in favor of Bonds about 52%. OF course that is alightly more than a "majority-no", but still well short of HOF. And he was by far the best of the best. If he and Clemens have a hard time cracking 50%, I am confident that a majority would vote down the rest of them.

KCGHOST

08-03-2009, 09:03 AM

Griffey
Arod
Thome
Sheffield
Chipper
Pujols
Irod

Delgado might make it.

dgarza

08-03-2009, 09:29 AM

I am talking about real HOF election, not "here." The original post asked us which of these players "will" make the HOF, not who we feel "should" based on our opionions.

I was thinking of "will" get in as "eventually," but not necessarily by the present group of voters.

The present group of voters is just a "no" for the present. I don't see how they can assume these players will never get in.

jjpm74

08-03-2009, 09:51 AM

Under what circumstances do you think voters will admit these guys? As of now, the large-majority consensus is that nobody who has failed a test (or surrounded by a heavy cloud, like McGwire) will get in. Do you think they will soften over the years?

Alex Rodriguez has plenty of time to make up for his past mistake. The other two probably won't get in unless the writers change their hard line stance.

Jsquared83

08-03-2009, 11:50 AM

Griffey
Arod
Thome
Sheffield
Chipper
Pujols
Irod

Delgado might make it.

I think Delgado is going to need 500 to get in which means one more decent year. Is he out for the year btw?

Fuzzy Bear

08-22-2009, 05:07 PM

Griffey
Arod
Thome
Sheffield
Chipper
Pujols
Irod

Delgado might make it.

Delgado's been hurt this year. He was on his way to a productive season, but he's only played 26 games to date.

He's at 473 HRs, but he doesn't have the broad base of batting skills that, say, Gary Sheffield has, so it might be a long wait if he doesn't get to 500.

Seattle1

08-22-2009, 06:36 PM

I only voted for Griffey, Thome, Jones, and Guerro. Although Pujols has practically sealed the deal himself. Unless he turns up as a 'roider. I didn't vote for 'roiders such as A-Rod and Manny.

Brad Harris

08-22-2009, 07:30 PM

Will Be Elected
Carlos Delgado
Ken Griffey Jr.
Vladimir Guerrero
Todd Helton
Chipper Jones
Albert Pujols
Ivan Rodriguez
Jim Thome

Should Be Elected
Manny Ramirez
Alex Rodriguez
Gary Sheffield

Won't Be Elected
Moises Alou
Lance Berkman
Adam Dunn
Jermaine Dye
Jim Edmonds
Jason Giambi
Troy Glaus
Luis Gonzalez
Andruw Jones
Paul Konerko
David Ortiz
Richie Sexson

None of the Almost-Made-The-List players will be elected to the Hall of Fame. (Rolen and Tejada are the best candidates though.)

Jsquared83

08-23-2009, 04:51 PM

Domenic

08-23-2009, 05:07 PM

I only voted for Griffey, Thome, Jones, and Guerro. Although Pujols has practically sealed the deal himself. Unless he turns up as a 'roider. I didn't vote for 'roiders such as A-Rod and Manny.

Did you really not vote for Pujols because he "sealed the deal himself"? Or did you do it so Griffey would be the only player with one-hundred percent approval?

STLCards2

08-23-2009, 05:10 PM

Did you really not vote for Pujols because he "sealed the deal himself"? Or did you do it so Griffey would be the only player with one-hundred percent approval?

And hpw does he know that Griffey, Thome, Jones, or Guerrero won't get "busted" either?

Seattle1

08-23-2009, 08:00 PM

Did you really not vote for Pujols because he "sealed the deal himself"? Or did you do it so Griffey would be the only player with one-hundred percent approval?

You must be casting false aspersions on my motives!

:faint:

I don't have anything against Pujols. (Unless he turns up as a 'roider.) Also, I did not know what the totals were before casting my ballot. I did not know Pujols was unanimous to that point.

Seattle1

08-23-2009, 08:01 PM

And hpw does he know that Griffey, Thome, Jones, or Guerrero won't get "busted" either?

I don't know that as a 100% fact obviously. If that happens we'll cross that bridge when we come to it.

STLCards2

08-23-2009, 08:35 PM

I don't know that as a 100% fact obviously. If that happens we'll cross that bridge when we come to it.

Why didn't you cross the Pujols bridge when you got to it. If you offer the others a benefit of the doubt, why not Albert? If steroids wasn't the issue, what other reason for leaving him off?

Seattle1

08-23-2009, 08:59 PM

Why didn't you cross the Pujols bridge when you got to it. If you offer the others a benefit of the doubt, why not Albert? If steroids wasn't the issue, what other reason for leaving him off?

I guess I am sort of teetering on the edge about to go over the brink. Ask me the same question next year at this time, and if he continues to produce the way he has to date between now than then, and he doesn't turn up as a 'roider, then I would click on his name too. No harm, no foul.

:lightbulb:

STLCards2

08-23-2009, 09:04 PM

I guess I am sort of teetering on the edge about to go over the brink. Ask me the same question next year at this time, and if he continues to produce the way he has to date between now than then, and he doesn't turn up as a 'roider, then I would click on his name too. No harm, no foul.

:lightbulb:

Do you know something we don't about Albert? It still seems weird that you are playing by different rules for different players. Don't tell me you think that a guy is using just becasue he is big and good, right?

Seattle1

08-24-2009, 08:14 AM

Do you know something we don't about Albert? It still seems weird that you are playing by different rules for different players. Don't tell me you think that a guy is using just becasue he is big and good, right?

I'm not really playing by different rules, as you put it. Here is a major difference between Pujols and the others:

Player, Seasons

Griffey, 21
Thome, 19
Jones, 16
Guerrero, 14

Pujols 9

As I said he has practically sealed the deal in my mind, but I just didn't quite click on his name for this particular poll. It wasn't hostile against him or anything.

Ace Venom

08-24-2009, 08:24 AM

I voted:

Ken Griffey, Jr.
Jim Thome
Chipper Jones
Jim Edmonds
Albert Pujols
Todd Helton
Lance Berkman
Ivan Rodriguez

STLCards2

08-24-2009, 10:19 AM

I'm not really playing by different rules, as you put it. Here is a major difference between Pujols and the others:

Player, Seasons

Griffey, 21
Thome, 19
Jones, 16
Guerrero, 14

Pujols 9

As I said he has practically sealed the deal in my mind, but I just didn't quite click on his name for this particular poll. It wasn't hostile against him or anything.

But you said that he has "practicaly sealed the deal himself." Sounded like you weren't too worried about time played earlier.

So, I guess you wopuld not vote for Ichiro and his 9 years at this point? :D

Domenic

08-24-2009, 10:28 AM

But you said that he has "practicaly sealed the deal himself." Sounded like you weren't too worried about time played earlier.

This is why I asked about your "motives," so to speak. When you say that he "practically sealed the deal himself" it seemed like you were saying "he doesn't need my vote, so he's not getting it."

So, I guess you wopuld not vote for Ichiro and his 9 years at this point? :D

:crossfingers:

Seattle1

08-24-2009, 11:46 AM

Like Pujols, I think Ichiro has basically sealed the deal at this point. All that's left is the shouting.

NJRob65

08-25-2009, 04:41 PM

That and they have to appear in one game next year.

CircleChange11

08-25-2009, 07:16 PM

Ken Griffey, 621 HR, 1801 RBI, .286 BA

He's been 'en route' to the HoF since he arrived. He's the "Willie Mays" of this generation. People will remember his power, his defense, and his "The KId" persona.

Alex Rodriguez, 572 HR, 1663 RBI, .304 BA

His final numbers are going to be so obscene, that they won't be able to keep him out.

Jim Thome, 558 HR, 1547 RBI, .278 BA

One of the best pure power hitters of our time, and he's well-liked by everyone, and his OPS is very good. People will remember not only his HR numbers, but some of his majestic shots.

Manny Ramirez, 538 HR, 1762 RBI, .315 BA

Very few hitters will match his lifetime stats. Only 2 failed tests could keep him out, but being a bazaar idiot seemingly gives him a free pass on that.

Chipper Jones, 421 HR, 1423 RBI, .310 BA

Fan favorite + great lifetime numbers = HOF lock.

Vladimir Guerrero, 396 HR, 1289 RBI, .322 BA

Pretty good career numbers. Fan favorite. His defense will be over-rated because we'll remember some of his laser cannon throws.

Albert Pujols, 353 HR, 1069 RBI, .334 BA

The best player of his era. Nuff said. He may end up with more MVPs than any other non-PED player.

Todd Helton, 321 HR, 1176 RBI, .328 BA

I think he gets in .... just barely.

Lance Berkman, 306 HR, 1016 RBI, .300 BA

Hampered by his market size. Great OPS guy. He should continue to hit well for a few more years.

Ivan Rodriguez, 303 HR, 1250 RBI, .300 BA

The debate will rage on .... Bench or Pudge Rodriguez. When you're regarded as the "second best catcher in history", you're in. Good hitter, cannon for a right arm.

holyroman

08-26-2009, 08:49 AM

Hampered by his market size. Great OPS guy. He should continue to hit well for a few more years.

On Lance Berkman.

I just gotta say being a Houston guy. You do realize that Houston is the 4th largest city in the country? (probably the 3rd when the next census numbers come out, and these don't count the million undocumented here)
So I don't want to hear "hampered by his market size"
Try Hampered by East/West coast biased(ESPN, what have you)

Also Carlos Lee should be on this list.

STLCards2

08-26-2009, 04:07 PM

Domenic

08-26-2009, 05:04 PM

Like Pujols, I think Ichiro has basically sealed the deal at this point. All that's left is the shouting.

So you wouldn't have voted for Ichiro Suzuki in a similar poll - correct?

Greg Maddux's Biggest Fan

08-26-2009, 05:45 PM

The debate will rage on .... Bench or Pudge Rodriguez. When you're regarded as the "second best catcher in history", you're in. Good hitter, cannon for a right arm.

That's an interesting talking point. I always considered him a HOF lock, but we indeed perhaps may be talking about whether he's the first or second best catcher of all time. I wonder how many people will regard him as such?

CircleChange11

08-26-2009, 07:53 PM

On Lance Berkman.

I just gotta say being a Houston guy. You do realize that Houston is the 4th largest city in the country? (probably the 3rd when the next census numbers come out, and these don't count the million undocumented here)
So I don't want to hear "hampered by his market size"
Try Hampered by East/West coast biased(ESPN, what have you)

Also Carlos Lee should be on this list.

I agree with you. My Father in law lives in houston, so I do know that it is a very large metro area. Perhaps "market size" was a poor choice, but rather "market share" or "market attention".

For example, the 05 world series was very good ... all of the games were decided after the 7th inning, but no one outside of Chicgo and Houston seemed to be watching. If I am not mistaken, it wa the lowest rated WS in MLB history, despite being one of the most thrilling. NOw, had that same WS had been "NYY-StL" (like it could have been) it might have been the highest rated in recent history, regardless of how competitive it was.

All I was getting at is Berkman doesn't get the recognition that, IMO, he deserves. Some of that has to do with the media attention Houston doesn;t get (nationally) and it might also be affected by a certain other 1B in the same division. Really, with Lee, Pujols, and Berkman, that is some awesome 1B'ers all in the same division.

I think the same could be said of Morneau. If he were doing what he is doing in BOS/NY, he'd be a mega star ... "Teixeira-esque" so to speak.

CircleChange11

08-26-2009, 07:57 PM

That's an interesting talking point. I always considered him a HOF lock, but we indeed perhaps may be talking about whether he's the first or second best catcher of all time. I how many people will regard him as such?

I think Bench gets the edge because he was the 'first' to do so many things .... catch one-handed, throw bullets to 2B, be great with the bat and at stopping the running game, and he was a big part of a dynasty.

Pudge may be just as good, if not better, behind the plate, while Bench may get the edge due to power/peak seasons. But, IMO, Pudge is "right there", and the outcome of the discussion may be determined by the age of the debaters and which generation they are from.

I think as time goes on the "line" separating the two will become smaller and smaller and they may be regarded as "Best Ever A and Best Ever B".

Fuzzy Bear

08-26-2009, 08:06 PM

I guess I am sort of teetering on the edge about to go over the brink. Ask me the same question next year at this time, and if he continues to produce the way he has to date between now than then, and he doesn't turn up as a 'roider, then I would click on his name too. No harm, no foul.

:lightbulb:

Guilty, until proven innocent?

Guilty, until proven innocent, and all the gossip dies down?

Guilty, regardless of the facts?

Steroid McCarthyism is not a "no harm, no foul" deal. It produces much harm, and, as far as I'm concerned, is as foul as it comes.

CircleChange11

08-26-2009, 08:14 PM

A few things ...

Pujols has basically been the same dominant hitter since his rookie year. .300-30-100 year in, year out (almost mirroring Stan Musial's 9 year best).

There have been no serius steroids links, allegations, or gossip other than questioning "Can he really be this good?" The answer is "Yes".

The only thing that has hurt Albert during his young career was his playing weight as a shortstop (JuCo) and the assumptions about his work ethic and a natural playing position. His minor league numbers indicate the same plate success.

He has been the most dominant player, not named Bonds in baseball.

If he retired after this year (please don't), the HoF would have to change their policy, because there's no way he "couldn't be in". With his defense, he has simply dominated his peers as few others ever have.

I would think others like Fielder and Howard might take notice on what effect "slimming down" and displaying some plate patience can have on your performance. I don't know them personally, so I don't know if they have the committment/desire to do so.

I know in this era we all have to "sleep with one eye open" so to speak, but I would hope that it wouldn't cause us major reservations when we do encounter an truly great player (and humanitarian, not that it exempts him from the possibility, but you also need to look at 'the man' and not just 'the stats' when forming an opinion).

Paul Wendt

08-27-2009, 08:42 AM

Just a quick note: market size rankings are based on the number of used televisions for metro area, not municipality population.
How do they estimate the number of televisions in use?
--not the number of "used televisions"

So apparantly fewer people use t.v. in Houstan than its population would indicate.
Or they share televisions more, with fewer televisions per person inside households, or they live in bigger households.

jalbright

08-27-2009, 09:36 AM

I would think others like Fielder and Howard might take notice on what effect "slimming down" and displaying some plate patience can have on your performance. I don't know them personally, so I don't know if they have the committment/desire to do so.

Fielder and Howard are both good for at least 80 walks a season (Howard has 2 over 100), so they have plate patience. They do strike out a lot, but sluggers who take a lot of pitches (and thus have good walk totals) often do. Howard seems to either whiff or smoke the ball, so one can argue a slightly different approach would yield even better results. I'm not sure it's convincing, though. I don't know about Fielder's fitness, but Howard lost 20-30 pounds before this season, which is one reason (a lot of practice is the other) his defense is much improved, as any regular watcher of the Phils (like myself) could attest.