Today's 200 game winners: 2009 edition

[Cowtipper]

Well, I thought it'd be cool to do a 2009 edition of a thread I did before the start of last season. The number of 200 game winners currently playing has decreased pretty dramatically since then. When I ran the poll last time, there were twelve 200 game winners. That number is half that now.

The current 200 game winners are as follows. I have included their current record and ERA as well.

Tom Glavine, 305-203 W-L, 3.54 ERA
Randy Johnson, 303-166 W-L, 3.29 ERA
Jamie Moyer, 256-192 W-L, 4.22 ERA
Andy Pettitte, 223-133 W-L, 3.92 ERA
Pedro Martinez, 214-99 W-L, 2.91 ERA
John Smoltz, 211-151 W-L, 3.29 ERA

Last time around, 94.44% of you thought Glavine was going to be a Hall of Famer. 96.67% thought Johnson was going to get there, while only 1.11% thought Moyer had a shot. 3.33% of the voters thought Andy Pettitte would wind up in the Hall, while 92.22% thought Pedro would get there and 85.56% thought Smoltz would get there.

Also last time, I said that it might be a while before we see another 200-game winner. I said Tim Wakefield probably wouldn't get there, and lo and behold he's only 11 wins away from the mark. Livan Hernandez is at 154 wins and is 34 years old, so he might have a shot at 200. Bartolo Colon is at 153 wins and is 36, but being as inconsistent and injury-prone as he is I don't think he'll get there. Finally, Kevin Millwood is at 151 and is 34 years old. He could go one way or the other, I'm not sure if he'll get there or not.

Anyway, which of these guys do you think will get into the Hall of Fame?

[Senor Octobre]

Where's Schilling? I'd vote for him as well.

[Cowtipper]

Where's Schilling? I'd vote for him as well.

Schilling retired.

[Milt on Tilt]

Who didn't vote for Pedro? Cause you're wrong. Unless you are assuming PED allegations come out.

[Senor Octobre]

Schilling retired.

Woops, you're right.

[Los Bravos]

I just checked because I was wondering the same thing. Click on the numbers and compare them. It's easy to see who skipped Pedro.

[Milt on Tilt]

I just checked because I was wondering the same thing. Click on the numbers and compare them. It's easy to see who skipped Pedro.

Boo to TBG

On a side note, I did not know you could do that.

[jjpm74]

Boo to TBG

On a side note, I did not know you could do that.

Only if the person who generated the poll checks off the make votes public box.

[Cowtipper]

One person voted against Pedro Martinez and one person voted against John Smoltz. What, pray tell, are the arguments against them?

[JDD]

Andy Pettitte is an interesting case. Good pitchers on great teams have received a lot of votes over the years, but what is UP with only having FOUR shutouts?? He scores well in my book because he has won half his starts, but I think he has given up too many hits and too many runs to make it into the HOF.

[Cougar]

I would have preferred a "maybe" option for Pettitte and Moyer. If their careers were to end today, I don't think either would get in. Pettitte would be more likely than Moyer, I think.

[Cowtipper]

I would have preferred a "maybe" option for Pettitte and Moyer. If their careers were to end today, I don't think either would get in. Pettitte would be more likely than Moyer, I think.

How do you think each of them would fair? I'm guessing Pettitte would be like Tommy John, lasting all 15 years but not actually getting in. Moyer would probably stay alive for four or five elections but would drop off eventually.

[jjpm74]

How do you think each of them would fair? I'm guessing Pettitte would be like Tommy John, lasting all 15 years but not actually getting in. Moyer would probably stay alive for four or five elections but would drop off eventually.

Given what happened to David Cone, both will be 1 and done unless Moyer somehow sticks around to get to 300 wins. Then he'll be like Tommy John on the ballot.

[Cougar]

Given what happened to David Cone, both will be 1 and done unless Moyer somehow sticks around to get to 300 wins. Then he'll be like Tommy John on the ballot.

Cone to me is clearly a better HOF candidate than either Pettitte or Moyer.

The higher wins totals might help them hang around the ballot a little longer, and Pettitte's extensive postseason record may give him even further ballast, but I'm inclined to agree...the coming ballots are going to be sufficiently cluttered that's it shall be very hard for a marginal candidate to hang around very long.

[CorduroyCalves]

Given where Pedro's numbers are right now, I'd hate to see him pitch any longer. He'll likely hit 100 losses and depending on how poorly he pitches, his ERA could jump above 3.00. He doesn't have to do anymore, IMO, he's in already.

[Edgartohof]

Given where Pedro's numbers are right now, I'd hate to see him pitch any longer. He'll likely hit 100 losses and depending on how poorly he pitches, his ERA could jump above 3.00. He doesn't have to do anymore, IMO, he's in already.

Oh, he's DEFINITELY in. I'm not a big fan of Pedro (mostly because he constantly would MOW down the M's back in the day), but I respect what he did as a player - and he is absolutely deserving.

I'm even willing to go so far as to say that at his best, he was the best starting pitcher on an inning by inning basis. You can't keep that out of the HOF.

And he doesn't have the WORST counting stats. He may be short of certain hallmarks, but he has 2700+ IP and 200+ wins (with a .684 W%!!!)

[Cougar]

Oh, he's DEFINITELY in. I'm not a big fan of Pedro (mostly because he constantly would MOW down the M's back in the day), but I respect what he did as a player - and he is absolutely deserving.

I'm even willing to go so far as to say that at his best, he was the best starting pitcher on an inning by inning basis. You can't keep that out of the HOF.

And he doesn't have the WORST counting stats. He may be short of certain hallmarks, but he has 2700+ IP and 200+ wins (with a .684 W%!!!)

And 3000+ K's!

[Edgartohof]

And 3000+ K's!

Oh sure, that too I guess . . .






:D

[Brad Harris]

Schilling retired.
And Glavine didn't?

[STLCards2]

And Glavine didn't?

No- He said he wants to pitch next year - not likely that he will find a team, but he is not officialy "retired."

[Cowtipper]

And Glavine didn't?

Not officially...not that I'm aware of at least.

[Milt on Tilt]

One person voted against Pedro Martinez and one person voted against John Smoltz. What, pray tell, are the arguments against them?

I can hear a small hall argument against Smoltz.

[Jsquared83]

I can hear a small hall argument against Smoltz.

I'd put Smoltz in, not by a whole lot but he makes it. Wins are a little light, was dominant as a closer for 3 years, plus 3000ks and an ERA+ of 126 over 3400 innings is hard to ignore. Replace his closer years with starter years and we're looking at 250-260 wins, 3500ks and probably a slight drop in ERA+. Not a first ballot guy, but 3 years or so should get him in.

[Ace Venom]

I can hear a small hall argument against Smoltz.

His 154 saves make up for the lack of wins. Combined with his other counting stats, he should go in. Of course, he could be waiting through a long candidacy because he spent a few years as a closer.

[gman5431]

The four guys are easy first ballot guys. Then Pettitte has a decent case and i think eventually one day he will get in. Possibly elected down the road a la Jim Rice. Moyer has no shot, ERA is too high.

G Man

[nerfan]

RJ, Glavine, Pedro, and Smoltz should make it in in my opinion. I can't endorse Pettitte's selection to the Hall but I think he'll get there anyway.

[Jsquared83]

The four guys are easy first ballot guys. Then Pettitte has a decent case and i think eventually one day he will get in. Possibly elected down the road a la Jim Rice. Moyer has no shot, ERA is too high.

G Man

I think Pettitte needs 300 Wins to have a shot. Right now he's in Jack Morris territory.

[Los Bravos]

Morris with an HGH chaser.

[Jsquared83]

Morris with an HGH chaser.

Pretty much. Pettitte needs 3 more years and the way he's pitching this year, I wouldnt be surprised if this is his last.

[Paul Wendt]

In this forum people sometimes say that 250 will be the new 300.

Forty years ago, 250 wins was already a huge total and a Hall of Fame milestone. Some of us doubted that there would ever be another 300-game winner. I wonder whether ten years before that, many people including Early Wynn and Warren Spahn thought that one of them would be the last one, if he could get there.

Forty years before that-- this I had to look up now and I'm not sure that many in grandpa's generation would have been approximately aware of it. Pete Alexander zoomed past 300 in 1925. In forty seasons from that time until I learned of career lists (home runs in 1964/65), Lefty Grove and Early Wynn had retired precisely at that mark and Warren Spahn alone had surpassed it. No one else had won 275. Only eight men had won 250 and all were in the Hall of Fame or going in soon: Ruffing, Roberts, Grimes, Feller, Rixey, Lyons, Faber, and Hubbell. No one else since Pennock and Hoyt (almost 40 years) had reached even 225. In all, only thirteen 225-game winners in 40 seasons.

Following the 1964 season,
there were only five active pitchers behind Spahn and Roberts with even 150 wins; all seven were near the end of the line.

Wins thru 1964 (top ten active)
356 Warren Spahn
271 Robin Roberts
216 Whitey Ford
211 Billy Pierce
192 Lew Burdette
183 Bob Friend
174 Curt Simmons
------ ------
147 Bob Buhl
141 Don Drysdale
139 Larry Jackson

Five years later there would be merely six active pitchers with 150 wins, led by two with merely 209 --Bunning, over the hill, and Drysdale finished.

Wins thru 1969 (top ten active)
209 Jim Bunning
209 Don Drysdale
191 Juan Marichal
172 Camilo Pascual
167 Bob Gibson
156 Milt Pappas
------ ------
148 Johnny Podres
142 Jim Kaat
137 Hoyt Wilhelm
134 Jim Maloney

Again, most of them were near the end. The only incumbent from the top ten five years before, Don Drysdale was entirely finished. Only Gibson and Kaat would win 250. Indeed, they would be the only 250-game winners among the 31 active pitchers with one hundred wins!

Among 250-game winners at that time --27 including Al Spalding, whom Baseball did not count-- all but four were in the Hall of Fame or would soon go in.

250 wins thru 1969, not in Hall of Fame 2009
297 Bobby Mathews
284 Tony Mullane
265 Jim McCormick
264 Gus Weyhing

The latest, Gus Weyhing (at bb-ref) (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/weyhigu01.shtml) played his last game in 1901 and none of them enjoyed a good season after 1892, from the 60'6" rubber.

Jim Kaat would become the next 250-game winner after Weyhing who is not in the Hall of Fame today --75 years after.

[Los Bravos]

250 wins (or maybe 260 or 275...some number north of 249 and south of 300) should probably be considered a benchmark for any starter who has pitched his whole career in the era of the 5 man rotation. Similarly, 17 or 18 wins is, while not as round a number as 20, a milestone that serves the same purpose that 20 once did.

[STLCards2]

What's the rationale for the three people who didn't vote for Martinez?

[Fuzzy Bear]

Glavine
Johnson
Pedro
Smoltz

Moyer will have to make it to 300 wins.

Pettitte's been a consistent winner, and he's won 20 games twice. His winning percentage is excellent, even for a guy that's usually been on good teams. He's still productive. I wonder what the BBWAA will think of him if he's 275-150 when it's all said and done.

[EricAnno]

I cannot imagine a sane argument as to why John Smoltz deserves Hall of Fame induction more than Pedro Martinez. It just...absolutely baffles me. :crazy

[Fuzzy Bear]

I cannot imagine a sane argument as to why John Smoltz deserves Hall of Fame induction more than Pedro Martinez. It just...absolutely baffles me. :crazy

I certainly agree with this. One wonders what Pedro would have done in te 1963-68 pitchers era.

[STLCards2]

I certainly agree with this. One wonders what Pedro would have done in the 1963-68 pitchers era.

Lots to consider:

1. he would have mowed through those light-hitting, no-walk, hit for any contact (even weak contact) approach batters.

2. If he could only go 230 IP in his best seasons, that would be 80-90 fewer IP than the best of that era. Of course he wouldn't top out at 230 in 1965 - it would be more like 250 since the run environment less offensive, but he would still lag behind the best of the era.

So increase his quality compared to peers and decrease his quantity compared to peers. I see about the same amount of value from 1967 Pedro as 1997 Pedro.