Helping their hall chances this season (2009)

[willshad]

I think that this season, there are a number of guys who are approaching borderline hall of fame status, who are having big 'comeback' years, that will probably put them over the edge.

Bobby Abreu: While not one of his best seasons, sabermetrically speaking, he is posting good RBI and Bating average stats, to go along with his steals. A strong showing in the MVP voting is something that Abreau is missing in his resume, and he just may get it this year.

Todd Helton: A very shocking comeback year, that would fit into his prime. Has now achieved 2000 hits and 500 doubles, to go along with his greta rate stats.

Miguel Tejada: Maybe more surprising than Helton. Also has achieved 2000 hits, and is fast approaching 300 home runs

[Jsquared83]

Johnny Damon was putting up a career season early on, has since cooled off, however still putting up some nice power #s. His hall case still rests on his ability to reach 3000.

Younger guys like Mauer, Morneau, Teixeira, H. Ramirez, Utley, M. Cabrera are all furthering their solid foundations.

[Jsquared83]

I think that this season, there are a number of guys who are approaching borderline hall of fame status, who are having big 'comeback' years, that will probably put them over the edge.

Bobby Abreu: While not one of his best seasons, sabermetrically speaking, he is posting good RBI and Bating average stats, to go along with his steals. A strong showing in the MVP voting is something that Abreau is missing in his resume, and he just may get it this year.

Todd Helton: A very shocking comeback year, that would fit into his prime. Has now achieved 2000 hits and 500 doubles, to go along with his greta rate stats.

Miguel Tejada: Maybe more surprising than Helton. Also has achieved 2000 hits, and is fast approaching 300 home runs

Tejada's going to wear the PED albatross around his neck as well as a surprisingly low OPS+ of 112. His teammate Lance Berkman has a much stronger case to this point.

[Greg Maddux's Biggest Fan]

As I posted in the Bobby Abreu thread, I think he has improved his chances of the bubble guys more than anyone. His .847 OPS is good for an outfielder in his decline years, plus 20 SB's are a nice touch. His situational hitting has been fantastic, as he is currently tied with Jason Bartlett hitting with RISP at .396 (1.005 OPS). But more than the numbers, he is proving to everyone he is a winner. Despite Hunter, Guerrero & Rivera out, the Angels are on fire and he's right in the middle of it all. Figgins, Izturis and Kendrick have been outstanding during this run also. The one caveat about Abreu is he seems to be turning into more of a heavy singles hitter, but as long as he keeps the average up and continues his outstanding situational hitting + speed + OBP, he's still a tremendous asset to any lineup.

- Damon has helped his cause with one of his better offensive years, although I agree that good individual seasons don't matter much for Damon's case; it all rests on 3000 hits.

- Ichiro & Pujols have helped their cause by being active and closer to 10 major league seasons played.

- A number of guys have hurt their causes, including David Ortiz, Jamie Moyer, Vlad Guerrero, Jason Giambi, Jim Edmonds (by not playing), Jimmy Rollins

[Jsquared83]

As I posted in the Bobby Abreu thread, I think he has improved his chances of the bubble guys more than anyone. His .847 OPS is good for an outfielder in his decline years, plus 20 SB's are a nice touch. His situational hitting has been fantastic, as he is currently tied with Jason Bartlett hitting with RISP at .396 (1.005 OPS). But more than the numbers, he is proving to everyone he is a winner. Despite Hunter, Guerrero & Rivera out, the Angels are on fire and he's right in the middle of it all. Figgins, Izturis and Kendrick have been outstanding during this run also. The one caveat about Abreu is he seems to be turning into more of a heavy singles hitter, but as long as he keeps the average up and continues his outstanding situational hitting + speed + OBP, he's still a tremendous asset to any lineup.

- Damon has helped his cause with one of his better offensive years, although I agree that good individual seasons don't matter much for Damon's case; it all rests on 3000 hits.

- Ichiro & Pujols have helped their cause by being active and closer to 10 major league seasons played.

- A number of guys have hurt their causes, including David Ortiz, Jamie Moyer, Vlad Guerrero, Jason Giambi, Jim Edmonds (by not playing), Jimmy Rollins

True about Guerrero but I think he's done enough already, MVP, almost 400 HR, .322 BA, 146 OPS+. The rest is just gravy. None of the other guys have more than a 20% shot.

[OleMissCub]

I think it's pretty hard for Vlad to "hurt" his case at this point. I think he's a lock.

[Greg Maddux's Biggest Fan]

I think he's close to a lock as well but 1 more season would put the icing on the cake. No arguments from me that he might be already in as it stands.

[Cougar]

Johnny Damon was putting up a career season early on, has since cooled off, however still putting up some nice power #s. His hall case still rests on his ability to reach 3000.

Don't forget that Damon is taking aim at cracking the top 10 in runs scored. That plus 2800 hits or so may be enough.

[willshad]

True about Guerrero but I think he's done enough already, MVP, almost 400 HR, .322 BA, 146 OPS+. The rest is just gravy. None of the other guys have more than a 20% shot.

Yeah Guerrero has been a lock for a couple years now, unless he gets caught in a steroids candal.

[willshad]

Don't forget that Damon is taking aim at cracking the top 10 in runs scored. That plus 2800 hits or so may be enough.

I honestly don't think Damon has a shot at the hall no matter how many hits or runs he gets. He just wasn't ever a dominant enough player. He would be kind of like the position player version of Tommy John.

[willshad]

As I posted in the Bobby Abreu thread, I think he has improved his chances of the bubble guys more than anyone. His .847 OPS is good for an outfielder in his decline years, plus 20 SB's are a nice touch. His situational hitting has been fantastic, as he is currently tied with Jason Bartlett hitting with RISP at .396 (1.005 OPS). But more than the numbers, he is proving to everyone he is a winner. Despite Hunter, Guerrero & Rivera out, the Angels are on fire and he's right in the middle of it all. Figgins, Izturis and Kendrick have been outstanding during this run also. The one caveat about Abreu is he seems to be turning into more of a heavy singles hitter, but as long as he keeps the average up and continues his outstanding situational hitting + speed + OBP, he's still a tremendous asset to any lineup.

- Damon has helped his cause with one of his better offensive years, although I agree that good individual seasons don't matter much for Damon's case; it all rests on 3000 hits.

- Ichiro & Pujols have helped their cause by being active and closer to 10 major league seasons played.

- A number of guys have hurt their causes, including David Ortiz, Jamie Moyer, Vlad Guerrero, Jason Giambi, Jim Edmonds (by not playing), Jimmy Rollins


Agreed about Abreu. I think he has a legit shot at the MVP, and if the Angels make the Series or something he could get a lot of exposure as their best player so far this season. That's relaly all he needs (besides a little more longevity), because his quality stats are good for his career.
I dont think that Moyer is hurting his case, however. At this point he needs to add to his wins total, and he should end up with at least 15.

[PVNICK]

Abreu would be really helped by a WS and strong post-season. I think it would sort of remind people that "yeah this guys great" he had that cachet once albeit briefly in Philly and stuff like that nonsensical though it may be helps. The next thing he needs is for the .300 avg .405 OBP and .495 Spct to finish at or above the round numbers they are near. What will hurt is the 1200 runs 248 HR and 1100 RBI he is @ now. Those numbers need to be close to or at least 1500 and 350. But he has put himself back into play.

[dgarza]

Mike Scioscia

[nerfan]

Mike Scioscia

Good one. He will significant support.

[Jsquared83]

Abreu again with another 2-4 night, closing in on 70 RBI for the season. Might even crack the top 10 in MVP voting this year, depending on how well the Angels do down the stretch.

[Greg Maddux's Biggest Fan]

Abreu again with another 2-4 night, closing in on 70 RBI for the season. Might even crack the top 10 in MVP voting this year, depending on how well the Angels do down the stretch.

Abreu is currently hitting a ridiculous .418 (1.038 OSP/110 AB's) with RISP. I'm trying to find out what the highest single season RISP season is among qualified players, with no luck. Either way, the clutchness factor is off the charts so far.

I think Abreu is easily a Top 10 MVP candidate at this point, although his OPS would have to get up past .900 territory for serious consideration. That said, Pedroia won it with a .869 OPS last year (Abreu currently .861) in a hitters park, so you never know. Considering what he has done with the top dawgs out of the lineup, it looks very good on him. Kendry Morales might be making a run as well.

[Jsquared83]

Abreu is currently hitting a ridiculous .418 (1.038 OSP/110 AB's) with RISP. I'm trying to find out what the highest single season RISP season is among qualified players, with no luck. Either way, the clutchness factor is off the charts so far.

I think Abreu is easily a Top 10 MVP candidate at this point, although his OPS would have to get up past .900 territory for serious consideration. That said, Pedroia won it with a .869 OPS last year (Abreu currently .861) in a hitters park, so you never know. Considering what he has done with the top dawgs out of the lineup, it looks very good on him. Kendry Morales might be making a run as well.

Plus throw in the potential 30 steals and prolly only these guys are ahead of him at this point. Mauer, Morneau, Teixeira, Jeter, Longoria, maybe Youkilis, maybe Lind, Zobrist and Ichiro only because he's Ichiro lol. Am I missing anyone?

[ol' aches and pains]

Mark Buehrle hasn't hurt his HOF chances this year.

[Greg Maddux's Biggest Fan]

Plus throw in the potential 30 steals and prolly only these guys are ahead of him at this point. Mauer, Morneau, Teixeira, Jeter, Longoria, maybe Youkilis, maybe Lind, Zobrist and Ichiro only because he's Ichiro lol. Am I missing anyone?

I would vote for Abreu ahead of Jeter, Longoria, Lind & probably Ichiro & Mauer thus far.

[brett]

Abreu is currently hitting a ridiculous .418 (1.038 OSP/110 AB's) with RISP. I'm trying to find out what the highest single season RISP season is among qualified players, with no luck. Either way, the clutchness factor is off the charts so far.


Try Brett 1980.

(.469)

[brett]

Todd Helton needed this year. He is not quite there in my book, but after last year, I would not have bet on him, and now I would.

[Jsquared83]

I would vote for Abreu ahead of Jeter, Longoria, Lind & probably Ichiro & Mauer thus far.

Mauer? He's hitting .354 with a 172 OPS+ from behind the plate, not to mention most likely adding another gold glove this year. If Minny stays in the race late, I think prolly win it, if not finish top 3.

[Greg Maddux's Biggest Fan]

Try Brett 1980.

(.469)

Now that's off the charts! Spectacular.

[Greg Maddux's Biggest Fan]

Mauer? He's hitting .354 with a 172 OPS+ from behind the plate, not to mention most likely adding another gold glove this year. If Minny stays in the race late, I think prolly win it, if not finish top 3.

Yeah, you'd have no argument from me. If he had played a full schedule then no doubt. Mauer's roughly 15% better OPS is balanced by Abreu's 15% more games played, not too mention the extreme advantage in baserunning (partially offset by defense). Its a tough call at this point; argument either way really. I'd go with Abreu because Mauer has much better protection at #4 slot (Morales is good but frequeently he doesn't bat fourth; Napoli, Rivera, Guerrero have rotated).

[Brad Harris]

With today's news, David Ortiz is guaranteed to never be elected.

[JDD]

Try Brett 1980.

(.469)


I went looking, and I found Tony Gwynn hit .459 in 1997. Which of course just isn't good enough... HA!

I will keep looking, but that .469 by Brett in 1980 might hold up. Is that THE record? For sure? Can I stop looking?

[Cougar]

If I had to bet on one guy having a better RISP BA than 1980 Brett, it would be Ted Williams in one of his vintage seasons.

[JDD]

Rico Carty in 1970, hit this with RISP

.401

Bum...

[Greg Maddux's Biggest Fan]

Rico Carty in 1970, hit this with RISP

.401

Bum...

Where are you getting Gwynn's & Carty RISP numbers JDD?

[brett]

I went looking, and I found Tony Gwynn hit .459 in 1997. Which of course just isn't good enough... HA!

I will keep looking, but that .469 by Brett in 1980 might hold up. Is that THE record? For sure? Can I stop looking?

I don't know. It was called "unheard of".

He did it over about 130 at bats or so. That is about 6 weeks worth of at bats, and a few guys have hit in the .460 range for 6 weeks, so there may be a handful around or better than that.

[JDD]

Here is an interesting case... Larry Walker. I looked up his numbers over that amazing nine year run he had from 1997-2002.

Here are his overall batting averages in those years and below that his batting average with RISP:

.366..........363..........379..........309....... ...350..........338

.364..........273..........420..........391....... ...374..........360


That low mark in 1998 (to me) stands out as much as his .420 in 1999.

Just sharing...

[JDD]

Some more random checking:

Don Mattingly 1984 (.400)

Don Mattingly 1986 (.309)

Which is interesting because he hit .343 in 84 then .352 in 86

I find it interesting that some players can go up one year (compared to their overall batting average) and down in another in seasons very close together. I am guessing this is a function of small sample size and the way the game is played (of course).

[JDD]

Where are you getting Gwynn's & Carty RISP numbers JDD?

Baseball Reference has batting splits going back to the mid 1950s or so.

That gives me the end of Williams' career, but not 1941.

[JDD]

I looked up one of Bill James's boys, having one of Bill James' favorite seasons:

Will Clark 1989 (.389) with runners in scoring position.

Here is another chosen from my memory, using high overall batting averages.

Andres Galarraga 1993 (.425) which is close....

Roberto Alomar 1999 (.393) huge RBI year for him, so I checked and that made me recall this guys huge RBI year:

Tommy Davis in 1962 (.376) with RISP and I thought it would be much higher with the 153 RBI and the overall BA of .346

[Cougar]

Here is another chosen from my memory, using high overall batting averages.

Andres Galarraga 1993 (.425) which is close....

I'll say it again: Andres Galarraga is NOT a Coors Field Creation!!!

[Cougar]

Baseball Reference has batting splits going back to the mid 1950s or so.

That gives me the end of Williams' career, but not 1941.

Yeah, that's what I thought.

I checked his .388 season in 1957...but alas, he hit "only" .373 with RISP.

[Ubiquitous]

I would guess Hugh Duffy has the all time high in this stat. Or Levi Meyerle if you count the NA as a major league.

[JDD]

Manny Ramirez.... in 2008, just using his numbers with the Dodgers:

.463 (thats from 19 out of 41)

With the BoSox it was .309

[Ubiquitous]

Ichiro his first year had a .445 average and he did it in more ab than Brett.

[dgarza]

Here's an interestingly high Avg w/RISP:
The "great" Elmer Valo in 1955 : .431

[dgarza]

Magglio Ordonez in 2007 : RISP .429
Bill Madlock in 1976 : RISP .422

[dgarza]

Try Brett 1980.

(.469)Perhaps having an Afro (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?n1=gamblos01&year=1979&t=b) helps...

[brett]

Yes Ichiro went .446 in more at bats-the same number of hits, but more at bats.

Brett went .469/.542/.815 in 166 plate appearances and struck out 5 times.
He drove in 96 with his 61 hits with RISP.


Ichiro went .446/.506/.540 in 163 plate appearances and struck out 11 times. Plus, how many of Ichiro's hits didn't even score the runner from second? He had 61 hits and only 55 RBI with RISP.

[Cougar]

Perhaps having an Afro (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?n1=gamblos01&year=1979&t=b) helps...

Wow.

I'm guessing he just about never hit against a lefty in the situation, but still, hot damn!

[brett]

Perhaps having an Afro (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?n1=gamblos01&year=1979&t=b) helps...

Not bad, but he didn't qualify for the batting title, or even come close with 327 plate appearances that year.

[dgarza]

Not bad, but he didn't qualify for the batting title, or even come close with 327 plate appearances that year.I know, but .477 is still impressive. And his OBP was .617 - SLG was .862 - sOPS+ was 296.

[brett]

I found a couple articles that state that Brett's was the highest on record at least through his retirement. (although some mysteriously list it as .466).

Some saber evaluations prefer to include Sac Flies as outs in that situation too. Not sure what that does to his total.

[Greg Maddux's Biggest Fan]

I only looked him up for one season in particular because he was batting over .400 in June one year (finished at .325), but Lenny Dykstra hit .427 in 110 AB's with RISP in 1990.

Manny Ramirez batted .435 with RISP in 109 AB's in 2002.

Andres Galarraga hit .425 with RISP in 127 AB's in 1993 & .413 in 1996

[Greg Maddux's Biggest Fan]

BTW, does anybody else think this important statistic should be included in players Black/Grey ink scores? this would be a good debate.

[Paul Wendt]

I found a couple articles that state that Brett's was the highest on record at least through his retirement. (although some mysteriously list it as .466).
Retrosheet must be the source for historical data, so the timespan covered has been growing at both ends. --perhaps both about one season annually during the fifteen years since Brett?

[Otis Nixon's Bodyguard]

On the topic of players helping their HOF chances in '09, what about Adam Dunn? His name has come up in HOF discussions before based on his consistency, but the knocks on him have been his (lack of) peak value and his batting average. He's currently on pace to have the best season of his career, and, in doing so, has raised his career average to .249. If he can keep his pace and finish the season with a 150 OPS+, while raising his career average to .250, I'd say he'll have done a whole lot to improve his HOF chances. If he can remain a .275 hitter for several years, he'll really be in good shape.

[CircleChange11]

On the topic of players helping their HOF chances in '09, what about Adam Dunn? His name has come up in HOF discussions before based on his consistency, but the knocks on him have been his (lack of) peak value and his batting average. He's currently on pace to have the best season of his career, and, in doing so, has raised his career average to .249. If he can keep his pace and finish the season with a 150 OPS+, while raising his career average to .250, I'd say he'll have done a whole lot to improve his HOF chances. If he can remain a .275 hitter for several years, he'll really be in good shape.

.275 is 9 pts higher than his highest BA in any season.

The problem with Dunn is he is primarily just a homer run hitter, he only takes second when he HAS to. *grin* ... and he has 304 career HRs in an era when that number is less impressive.

He would also have to average .275 for like the next 5 years just to get his career BA up to .260

He also walks a lot, but when you don't have speed, I don't know how the HoF will view that.

He's never even been in the top 20 (not even top 25) in MVP voting for a single year, so I don't see how he could be viewed as 'dominating his era' in any capacity.

So, he doesn't have MVP voting working his favor, no gold gloves, and 1 all-star appearance. How is that even HoF consideration?

We all like 'Big Donkey', but still. Compare his all-star appearance and MVP voting and other stats to Dave Kingman. He's a lot closer to Dave Kingman than he is the HoF. That's reality.

The lack of a single post-season at bat also works against him.

[Cougar]

Any player with 300 HR before the age of 30, and 5 consecutive 40-HR seasons (with a sixth looking pretty likely; he will at least come close), is off to the beginning of a Hall-worthy career.

Dunn has two skills -- avoiding making outs and hitting the ball over the fence. It's true he's no better than mediocre at just about everything else, but those happen to be the two most important skills an offensive player can have.

Dunn is advancing his case well. It would be nice if he could find his way into some pennant races, but that is of course not wholly in his control.

[Jsquared83]

Any player with 300 HR before the age of 30, and 5 consecutive 40-HR seasons (with a sixth looking pretty likely; he will at least come close), is off to the beginning of a Hall-worthy career.

Dunn has two skills -- avoiding making outs and hitting the ball over the fence. It's true he's no better than mediocre at just about everything else, but those happen to be the two most important skills an offensive player can have.

Dunn is advancing his case well. It would be nice if he could find his way into some pennant races, but that is of course not wholly in his control.

Dunn will need a move to the AL in a few years and preferably to a team like Texas or even NY. Imagine his power with the short RF porch? He's def a SABR case tho. Could you imagine the writers voting someone in with 600 HR and a .245 BA? I can't.

[OleMissCub]

someone who SHOULD have helped their chances this year was Aramis Ramirez. but of course he got hurt.

He missed 65 games due to injury yet is having one of his best seasons ever with a .340/.409/.582 line and 9 HR and 33 RBI in just 40 games.

[JDD]

Dunn will need a move to the AL in a few years and preferably to a team like Texas or even NY. Imagine his power with the short RF porch? He's def a SABR case tho. Could you imagine the writers voting someone in with 600 HR and a .245 BA? I can't.

He is in that Harmon Killebrew family of hitters. Nintey percent of his votes will come from how impressive his volume of homers ends up being.

Ugly sentence, but you get the gist.

[dgarza]

He's def a SABR case tho. Could you imagine the writers voting someone in with 600 HR and a .245 BA? I can't.Isn't it the other way around? I can't see the "SABR folks" liking Dunn much.

[NJRob65]

Isn't it the other way around? I can't see the "SABR folks" liking Dunn much.

He walks a lot, and has a relatively high OBP, especially when considering his batting average. His career average is currently .250 and his career OBP is .383 His OPS+ is 132, and his Runs Created Per Game is 7.4, both solid numbers, if not spectacular.

[Brad Harris]

600 HR and no steroid taint = elected

500 HR (and no steroid taint) = very unlikely

Fairly or not, the voters are likely to consider Dunn a steroids-era version of Dave Kingman.

[Jsquared83]

600 HR and no steroid taint = elected

500 HR (and no steroid taint) = very unlikely

Fairly or not, the voters are likely to consider Dunn a steroids-era version of Dave Kingman.

The only way Dunn gets in with 500-550 HRs is if he develops some average later in his career which is highly unlikely. But to say he's a modern day Kingman is a bit rough. Kingman couldnt take a walk, even at his "peak". His .302 lifetime OBP is in Mazeroski territory. I'd say he's closer to a poorman's hybrid of Reggie Jackson and Harmon Killebrew.

[Jsquared83]

He walks a lot, and has a relatively high OBP, especially when considering his batting average. His career average is currently .250 and his career OBP is .383 His OPS+ is 132, and his Runs Created Per Game is 7.4, both solid numbers, if not spectacular.

Exactly. If you look at anyone with potentially 600 HR and an OPS+ of 132. Thats HOF to me. 600 HR and a .245 average, ehhh, borderline.

[Otis Nixon's Bodyguard]

With about 20 games left, I'll nominate two guys. I already mentioned the first one earlier in the thread: Adam Dunn. He's still hitting above .280, and his OPS+ is in the 150s. He's looking more like Jim Thome and Harmon Killebrew than Dave Kingman. His career average is up to .251, and he'll have close to 320 homers on his 30th birthday. Whether you support his case or not, he's perhaps done more to help it in '09 than anyone else. The second guy is Todd Helton. He looked like he was out of gas in '08, but he has rebounded to his '07 form this year. He's in the top five in the NL in batting average (the category I believe has always been his HOF selling point), and he's kept his OBP around .400 and his SLG% around .500. A few more years like the one '09 is shaping up to be, and he'll be hard to keep out.

[willshad]

I think Mauer has helped his chances more than any other player. If he can nab another batting title, that would make an automatic solid argument to base his case on ('a catcher with 3 batting titles!'), even if this season ends up being a fluke.

[White Knight]

I honestly don't think Damon has a shot at the hall no matter how many hits or runs he gets. He just wasn't ever a dominant enough player. He would be kind of like the position player version of Tommy John.

Except that Tommy never hit his magic number (300), otherwise he'd be in.

[Greg Maddux's Biggest Fan]

With about 20 games left, I'll nominate two guys. I already mentioned the first one earlier in the thread: Adam Dunn. He's still hitting above .280, and his OPS+ is in the 150s. He's looking more like Jim Thome and Harmon Killebrew than Dave Kingman. His career average is up to .251, and he'll have close to 320 homers on his 30th birthday. Whether you support his case or not, he's perhaps done more to help it in '09 than anyone else. The second guy is Todd Helton. He looked like he was out of gas in '08, but he has rebounded to his '07 form this year. He's in the top five in the NL in batting average (the category I believe has always been his HOF selling point), and he's kept his OBP around .400 and his SLG% around .500. A few more years like the one '09 is shaping up to be, and he'll be hard to keep out.

Yup, agreeing totally with this assessment. I wasn't sure about Helton up until this year. All I know is that he probably needed 2-3 more solid years to build up some rate stats to counteract the argument that his exceptional peak is attributed to Coors field. He needed to partake in a 'career within a career' post-humidor to validate his stats. Although the power is down, the stats are extremely good for a player north of 35 in decline. A couple more years like this might be his ticket to the HOF. Meanwhile, Adam Dunn's season speaks for itself.

[Domenic]

Scott Rolen
.310/.367/.455/.822, 115 OPS+
.357 wOBA (8th among MLB 3B)
5.5 UZR/150 (9th in MLB)
3.2 WAR (10th among MLB 3B)

[tearforamariner]

- A number of guys have hurt their causes, including David Ortiz, Jamie Moyer, Vlad Guerrero, Jason Giambi, Jim Edmonds (by not playing), Jimmy Rollins

I disagree about Moyer, about as much as you can disagree about something. Jamie Moyer's chance at getting into the Hall of Fame relies solely on his Wins total. Moyer does not have any other Hall credentials other than the number of games he's won. His only shot is 300 wins. At the beginning of the year, I said he needs to finish this season with 260, and if he does that he'll be in good shape. He's at 258 right now and he will be getting a few more starts by the end of the season. Yes his ERA is high, but it has dropped 100 points over his last 10 games. That, combined with his reputation and the fact he still possess the ability to get the game to the 6th, I think he will return to the rotation next season.

I would say that Moyer HELPED his Hall of Fame chances by doing what he needed to do: Winning.

[Paul Wendt]

I disagree about Moyer, about as much as you can disagree about something.
...
I would say that Moyer HELPED his Hall of Fame chances by doing what he needed to do: Winning.
This disagreement depends crucially on one's expectation for Moyer "winning" this year. For example, suppose "the Phillies are a juggernaut with a lights out closer. If his arm doesn't fall off Moyer will win sixteen." From that standpoint the actual season has been a reality check that has hurt his prospects.

[Fuzzy Bear]

600 HR and no steroid taint = elected

500 HR (and no steroid taint) = very unlikely

Fairly or not, the voters are likely to consider Dunn a steroids-era version of Dave Kingman.

That would be so unfair to Dunn, who has a whole lot more plate discipline and defensive value than Kingman even dreamed of.

Dunn is HUGELY consistent from year to year in ways Kingman never was.

Dunn is a guy who's going to be sincerely in the discussion from here on out.

[Fuzzy Bear]

I disagree about Moyer, about as much as you can disagree about something. Jamie Moyer's chance at getting into the Hall of Fame relies solely on his Wins total. Moyer does not have any other Hall credentials other than the number of games he's won. His only shot is 300 wins. At the beginning of the year, I said he needs to finish this season with 260, and if he does that he'll be in good shape. He's at 258 right now and he will be getting a few more starts by the end of the season. Yes his ERA is high, but it has dropped 100 points over his last 10 games. That, combined with his reputation and the fact he still possess the ability to get the game to the 6th, I think he will return to the rotation next season.

I would say that Moyer HELPED his Hall of Fame chances by doing what he needed to do: Winning.

At his age, Moyer needed to do a little more. His career has the aura of Dennis Martinez, albeit with two (2) 20-win seasons (which is nothing to sniff at). He's not extinguished him chances, but he hasn't exactly helped himself. His HOF chances are helped in the technical sense, but even at 260 wins, he's not going to be a presumptive HOFer.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Johnny Damon remains a longshot, but he's improved his chances at 3,000 hits AND 2,000 runs. THAT accomplishment would CERTAINLY put him in the HOF, and would, in the end, cause a major reassessment of his career. His chances of achieving those twin milestones are improved by his play this season.

[Jsquared83]

How about a younger guy like Matt Holliday? He's proved he can be a huge run producer outside of Colorado by going on a tear in St Louis since his trade. Still young but showing he can be a 25/100/.320 guy with a nice amount of walks in most ballparks.

[Greg Maddux's Biggest Fan]

Now that the season has almost ended, here are my Top 5 guys with 8+ years of ML service and realistic HOF chances who helped themselves out this year (excluded are guys like Mariano Rivera who are already in):

1. Bobby Abreu- Another very solid campaign... Topped 100 RBI for 7th straight year, longest active streak along with Pujols... stole 30 bases for the sixth time in career... has an outside chance of scoring 100 runs (96)... Key player (along with Morales) in Angels playoff run, with Guerrero/Hunter/Rivera all missing significant time due to injury... Clutch player; 4th in AL with RISP at .361... AL player of the month in July... Gets universal credit for helping Angels become a more patient team & increasing their BB rate...

2. Todd Helton- Rebounded from subpar & injury plagued 2008 with .320+ average and .900 OPS... Key player in the lineup with Holiday shipped off this year... 3rd in the NL in On Base %... As always, Home/Road splits are huge but still OPSed .833 on the road with close to .300 avg (.296)

3. Adam Dunn- Not only has Dunn posted his second best career OPS of 141, and tied for highest batting average (.266), he's proved he can still post excellent HR totals moving from Cincinnati's bandbox to Washington's less hitter-friendly yard... Although he's OPSing .113 pts higher on the road, he's still smashed 19 HR in 277 home AB's... He's hit better with RISP this year, batting .282 and OPSing 1.032... For his career (including this year), he's batting .232 with .907 OPS so the improvement is significant.

4. Johnny Damon- One of his better seasons, which practically guarentees him more playing time by way of 2-year contract in the off season most likely... Scored 100 runs for the 10th time in his career... Going to the postseason yet again, which will again raise his profile... only 578 hits away from 3000 now... Definitely helped by Home park dimensions & if they remain unchanged, could help prolong his career; possibly enough to allow him to get 3000 hits... Solid season either way.

5. Albert Pujols & Ichiro Suzuki- By virtue of playing 1 more year & getting closer to meeting the 10 year minimum playing requirement enacted by the HOF


Guys Hurting Their HOF Chances

1. Jason Giambi- Needed a couple more good years to get up above 2000 H and other counting stat milestones like 1500 RBI... Did the opposite with numbers which tell us he's finished as a full-time player.

2. David Ortiz- Despite the late start, was very much in play because of his amazing 5 year peak in which he was a top 5 MVP candidate for 5 straight years. Although he's rebounded since the All-Star break, a .795 OPS and career low .238 average won't cut in for a DH. And of course, there was the high profile positive steroids test which disappointed many people.

3. Jimmy Rollins- Better since the break, and not a devastating season since he has 21 HR/77 RBI/100 R from leadoff position, but still .723 OPS is the worst since 2003 and is now on sharp 3 year downtrend. Still playing GG caliber defense however.

4. Roy Oswalt- He didn't do any favors for his sparkling Winning % this year, winning a career low 8 games (8-6) and posting a career high 4.12 ERA. Much of the increase may be due to bad luck however as HR% and WHIP is generally in-line with career averages. Still, he certainly didn't advance his HOF agenda this year.

5. Alfonso Soriano- Almost not worth mentioning here since I always considered him a fringe candidate at best, but Soriano's chances look done after this year. Injured & ineffective, posting a career-low .726 OPS/.240 avg in a hitter's yard; not stealing bases anymore either.


Guy Hurting Their HOF Chances Due To Injury

Billy Wagner
Carlos Delgado

[Brad Harris]

Great post, GMBF! Really enjoyed reading that. Not much I can add either. Maybe Gary Sheffield passing 500 HR helped him somewhat?

[Greg Maddux's Biggest Fan]

Great post, GMBF! Really enjoyed reading that. Not much I can add either. Maybe Gary Sheffield passing 500 HR helped him somewhat?

Glad you appreciated that Brad :). Almost regretted doing it since it took longer than I thought with research and all.

As for Shef, the 500 HR milestone was important although outside of that, his overall numbers don't help much.

[brett]

Helton showed that he was not finished. He won't slugg .600 again, but he can add the needed 200-300 solid games.

Ryan Howard to the degree that he is already 29 and basically NEEDS to hit 40+ every year to give himself a chance.

Trevor Hoffman. I am not stongly in support of him for the HOF, but if he keeps pushing the record up-well, after this year I might put him in. He went over 1000 IP. He'll almost certainly crack 600 saves. 14 30+ save years. (still he's racking up 30+ saves in <60 IP every year now).

All three of these guys are guys who can get into the hall, and who may very well not get in. I don't think Abreu has any real chance. He deserves consideration. In fact his hitting line is only a little behind what I would have expected from Helton in an average park.

[Greg Maddux's Biggest Fan]

Helton showed that he was not finished. He won't slugg .600 again, but he can add the needed 200-300 solid games.

Ryan Howard to the degree that he is already 29 and basically NEEDS to hit 40+ every year to give himself a chance.

Trevor Hoffman. I am not stongly in support of him for the HOF, but if he keeps pushing the record up-well, after this year I might put him in. He went over 1000 IP. He'll almost certainly crack 600 saves. 14 30+ save years. (still he's racking up 30+ saves in <60 IP every year now).

All three of these guys are guys who can get into the hall, and who may very well not get in. I don't think Abreu has any real chance. He deserves consideration. In fact his hitting line is only a little behind what I would have expected from Helton in an average park.

It's too early to tell with Ryan Howard as he only has 2683 PA and 749 H. It helps immensely that he won an MVP and basically started his career putting up HOF peak-type numbers; albeit at a late age. Lets see what happens in the next 3-4 years before we start taking his case seriously.

For better or for worse, Trevor Hoffman is as good as in. He's obliterated the Saves record and keeps producing very well at an advanced age. I do agree that getting over 1000 IP was an important 'lock' for his case as I'm sure many writers use this number as a baseline figure that RP have to cross in order have pitched 'sufficiently' for HOF candidacy.

As Abreu is concerned, I have to strenuously disagree with you. I very much think he is in play on a few different angles.

Angle #1: As Brad Harris pointed out in an earlier post, Abreu has a very real chance of becoming only the 10 member 1500 R-1500 RBI-1500 BB Club(Thome or Sheffield are both close however). The current list:

"1500-1500-1500 Club"
Barry Bonds
Lou Gehrig
Mickey Mantle
Stan Musial
Mel Ott
Babe Ruth
Mike Schmidt
Ted Williams
Carl Yastrzemski

This would be quite an historic achievement. Abreu is only 230 R-314 RBI-246 BB away so if he continues a strong decline and achieves this, he should be and most likely will be a HOFer.

Angle #2: IMO, he is the best Venezulean baseball player of all-time. This may strike a chord with voters who believe the best player from a major basbeall player-producing country should be in the HOF. He should get much support from the Latin writiers.

Angle #3: He is a Sabermetric standout with EQA numbers equivalent of guys like Vladimir Guerrero right now. He is already 22nd All-time in the Power-Speed Number as calculated by Baseball Reference, and will probably crack Top 10 All-time before its all said and done. The Top 10 currently consists of Barry Bonds, Rickey Henderson, Willie Mays, Alex Rodriguez, Bobby Bonds, Joe Morgan, Andre Dawson, Hank Aaron, Craig Biggio & Sammy Sosa.

Angle #4: I believe there's a good chance Abreu will be seen more positively as time goes on. He was unfortunate in that he played in a huge slugging era in which he never quite posted Slugging %'s that were of the top guys in baseball. This is why I believe him to be one of the most underrated guys in baseball; certainly of this generation. After he's retired and receives a re-evaluation from the writers, I believe he will be seen as a worthy HOF candidate as a facilitator as opposed to a run producer. He has potential to be cast in the Paul Molitor/Al Kaline/Paul Waner type molds - guys who wern't huge Slugging guys but got on base, drove in some runs, stole some bases & hit for good averages. Abreu's raw OPS numbers, which compare favorably with the aforementioned, have always played better than that because he's such an asset on the basepaths and such a multi-dimensional player.

Of course, all these angles to HOF candidacy will only come into play with another 3 strong decline years IMO. He hasn't done quite enough yet but I still contend he's very much in play.

[brett]

To do all that, Abreu would probably have to make it 2400 games. I think that would do it. I don't bet on him lasting that long. He'd have about a Billy Williams hitting career perhaps, but he'd have to keep his rates up.

By the time he hits games he probably has Keith Hernandez type relative rates. Hernandez is a very borderline hall of fame candidate for me. I could see him in, but I wouldn't call it an injustice to have him out.

So he hits like Keith through 2100, and Keith is an all time great fielder.

By the time Abreu hits 2400 games he probably has rates down around say 124 OPS+. I mean, even from a Saber view, he's about 150-300 games behind the career curve.

He could get 300/300 though which would be an added plus.

[willshad]

To do all that, Abreu would probably have to make it 2400 games. I think that would do it. I don't bet on him lasting that long. He'd have about a Billy Williams hitting career perhaps, but he'd have to keep his rates up.

By the time he hits games he probably has Keith Hernandez type relative rates. Hernandez is a very borderline hall of fame candidate for me. I could see him in, but I wouldn't call it an injustice to have him out.

So he hits like Keith through 2100, and Keith is an all time great fielder.

By the time Abreu hits 2400 games he probably has rates down around say 124 OPS+. I mean, even from a Saber view, he's about 150-300 games behind the career curve.

He could get 300/300 though which would be an added plus.



I don't know about you, but I consider Abreau a significantly better hitter than Hernandez. He is more consistent year to year, gets on base better, and has a lot more power (especially during his prime) . That isn't even counting his advantage on the basepaths. Plus he is more durable, one of the most durable players in recent memory. Keith ws already breaking down by age 34 and Bobby is still going strong at agee 35.

[brett]

I don't know about you, but I consider Abreau a significantly better hitter than Hernandez. He is more consistent year to year, gets on base better, and has a lot more power (especially during his prime) . That isn't even counting his advantage on the basepaths. Plus he is more durable, one of the most durable players in recent memory. Keith ws already breaking down by age 34 and Bobby is still going strong at agee 35.

Keith had a .384 OB% in a .330 enviro for a 1.16 relative rate. Abreu is .404 in a .342 enrviro (1.18) and hasn't had a decline yet.

[Fuzzy Bear]

To GMBF: I agree with most of your post. The guy who I think may have helped his HOF chances a wee bit that you think hurt his chances is Jimmy Rollins.

Rollins hasn't had a great season, but he's hit 21 HRs at this writing, and that helps. The Phils have made it to the postseason; if they make it back to the WS, that will be HUGE for Rollins, a shortstop. Then, too, there's the GG award. Rollins may well win the GG award, and if he does he'll have won 3 GGs in a row, making him a "perrennial GG winner at shortstop".

Shortstop has been a position where subjective evaluation plays a role. I have never liked the Jimmy Rollins-type of player, but he is the best player of his type I can think of. He's moving into "why not?" HOF territory, and while he's not the player he was in 2007, he advanced his HOF cause more than the real quality of his season would indicate.

[Greg Maddux's Biggest Fan]

Keith had a .384 OB% in a .330 enviro for a 1.16 relative rate. Abreu is .404 in a .342 enrviro (1.18) and hasn't had a decline yet.

Abreu has been in decline since 2007, its just been a relatively strong and seamless one to date.

Peak: 1998-2004

Transition Stage: 2005-2006

Decline Phase: 2007-Present

OR

Peak: 1998-2006

Decline Phase: 2007-Present

2007 marked a significant shift downward in OPS and career lows in Slugging, OBP (by a significant margin) and batting average. It was clearly his worst year in the Big Leagues although still a good year for most players. He's bested that season the last two but has never quite attained pre-2007 numbers. Hence, a clear decline phase demarcation can be seen in 2007. Thats how I view it anyway.

[Greg Maddux's Biggest Fan]

To GMBF: I agree with most of your post. The guy who I think may have helped his HOF chances a wee bit that you think hurt his chances is Jimmy Rollins.

Rollins hasn't had a great season, but he's hit 21 HRs at this writing, and that helps. The Phils have made it to the postseason; if they make it back to the WS, that will be HUGE for Rollins, a shortstop. Then, too, there's the GG award. Rollins may well win the GG award, and if he does he'll have won 3 GGs in a row, making him a "perrennial GG winner at shortstop".

Shortstop has been a position where subjective evaluation plays a role. I have never liked the Jimmy Rollins-type of player, but he is the best player of his type I can think of. He's moving into "why not?" HOF territory, and while he's not the player he was in 2007, he advanced his HOF cause more than the real quality of his season would indicate.

I also see your point FB. A third straight GG would be a big positive as a 'perennial' GG winner. I noted the power & runs didn't make his season 'disasterous'. I was more referring to the career-low .297 OBP - .681 Road OPS - extremely weak first half and declining SB%/SB's & sharp 3-year OPS drop off. Rollins will have to break this trend if he wants to right the ship so to speak.

You're correct however, a third straight GG, postseason appearance and good power stats at SS do not make this season a complete write-off.

[brett]

Rollins probably doesn't deserve any of his gold gloves. He does have a shot at 3000 hits though and could conceivably do it with an average in the .260s. And 500 steals.

And he's a good fielding SS.

He might be a better per game sabr player than Jeter.


I think Keith Hernandez is a virtually identical hitter to Abreu. OPS+, relative OB% and relative slugging for their peak 1900 or so games are identical.

Abreu is a better baserunner, but less valuable of defense where Hernandez was virtually a Maz for first.

Giles is a better hitter than Abreu and is not a hall of famer.

Abreu is not there yet, either sabermetrically or traditionally. That's all. And yes, he's helped his case his year because he needs to get to about 2200 games with his rates to deserve it, or get to 2400 and reach 1500/1500 to get the press.

[Greg Maddux's Biggest Fan]

Abreu is a better baserunner, but less valuable of defense where Hernandez was virtually a Maz for first.

Giles is a better hitter than Abreu and is not a hall of famer.

Abreu is not there yet, either sabermetrically or traditionally. That's all. And yes, he's helped his case his year because he needs to get to about 2200 games with his rates to deserve it, or get to 2400 and reach 1500/1500 to get the press.

The thing that makes all the difference here is baserunning. Abreu was/is a fast runner, with 348 career SB's at over 75%. He was a MUCH more efficient run scorer for his team, hence much more of an asset scoring runs even when he wasn't stealing bases. I won't break down who had the advantage of better hitters behind them, because Abreu played half of his career on dreadful Phillies squads, but it no coincidence Abreu has topped 100 R scored 8 times, and finished at 99, 98 & 96 three other times while Giles only scored 100 R three times and Hernandez twice.

Giles and Abreu had very similar stats through 6500 AB's, but who was far and away the better player because of his run scoring abilities? The answer is obvious. If Abreu had the exact same stats but was a stiff on the basepaths, I don't think anyone here, including myself would get too fired up over his candidacy. Its the speed element combined with the consistency and solid power numbers which make the difference here. And he's still producing where Giles and Hernandez broke down.

[willshad]

I think that Lance Berkman hurt his chances in 2009, though not quite as much as Ortiz did. Somehow he posted a 139 OPS+ (!), yet this had to be the least impressive 139 OPS+ season I can remember..it seemed he never really got hot all season long. At age 33, this might be the signs of a decline, and if it is then Berkman is in trouble. Then again, he has made habit of following great seasons with subpar ones, so perhaps he will rebound next year. I think he needs a couple more great seasons, or he will end up in the same boat as Jason Giambi.

David Wright hurt his chances as well, with his total loss of power. If he continues to hit like this the rest of his career, he has no shot at the hall.

[willshad]

The thing that makes all the difference here is baserunning. Abreu was/is a fast runner, with 348 career SB's at over 75%. He was a MUCH more efficient run scorer for his team, hence much more of an asset scoring runs even when he wasn't stealing bases. I won't break down who had the advantage of better hitters behind them, because Abreu played half of his career on dreadful Phillies squads, but it no coincidence Abreu has topped 100 R scored 8 times, and finished at 99, 98 & 96 three other times while Giles only scored 100 R three times and Hernandez twice.

Giles and Abreu had very similar stats through 6500 AB's, but who was far and away the better player because of his run scoring abilities? The answer is obvious. If Abreu had the exact same stats but was a stiff on the basepaths, I don't think anyone here, including myself would get too fired up over his candidacy. Its the speed element combined with the consistency and solid power numbers which make the difference here. And he's still producing where Giles and Hernandez broke down.


I also give him extra credit for his durability and consistency..he has played over 150 games for 12 straight years! And, relative rates or not, I still consider him to have been much more of a power threat throughout his career than Hernandez was. I remember even when he was playing, people were saying Hernandez needs to hit more home runs and drive in more runs...I never heard such things said about Abreu. Even so, his hall candidacy will totally depend upon how high he can bring his lifetime counting stats up to. No shot at 3000 hits, but if he can get totals like 600 doubles, 300 homers, 1500 RBI, or 1500 runs, then he will make it. Very similiar to Bernie Williams and Will Clark at the same age, and needs to age beter and last longer than they did.

[Fuzzy Bear]

I also see your point FB. A third straight GG would be a big positive as a 'perennial' GG winner. I noted the power & runs didn't make his season 'disasterous'. I was more referring to the career-low .297 OBP - .681 Road OPS - extremely weak first half and declining SB%/SB's & sharp 3-year OPS drop off. Rollins will have to break this trend if he wants to right the ship so to speak.

You're correct however, a third straight GG, postseason appearance and good power stats at SS do not make this season a complete write-off.


Rollins is an example of a guy for whom the boost he gave his HOF chances this season far exceeded the value of his season.

If making the HOF were an issue of accumulating "value points" and cashing them in when you reach a certain level (even adjusted for position), Rollins would have hurt his chances; his value this season was that of a fair-to-good shortstop, and little more. Reaching the HOF is, however, very much tied to markers and milestones, and Rollins' 21 HRs is a marker season for a SS. Furthermore, Rollins continued to steal bases to where he's working on an impressive (though not record-breaking) career total, and his 21 jacks put him in a situation where he has a decent chance of reaching 250 HRs, which, for a SS, is about where the onus of proof of Hall-worthiness is on a player's critics and not on the player. Indeed, Rollins has an outside shot at 300 HRs, which would, IMO, put him in the HOF, period.

I don't know that Rollins is "declining", although his BA and OBP took big hits. The flip side of this is that Rollins, once again, scored 100 runs. That, plus another Gold Glove (which well may happen) gives Rollins "talking points" in the HOF debate that are concrete and easy to state, whereas the case against him is more abstract, and something that would require a more sophisiticated (though not necessarily less valid) argument.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Abreu's chances of making the HOF are rather poor, IMO, but he did help himself to an extent this season.

Abreu, as has been noted, has a chance for 1,500 RBI, 1,500 Runs Scored, and 1,500 walks. That's pretty impressive, and he did much to make this likely this season. Abreu's case won't be a slam dunk, but if he reaches that trifecta, there will be talk of it, and he will be grouped with others who have done this, and most of them will be HOFers, I would guess.

[Greg Maddux's Biggest Fan]

I don't know that Rollins is "declining", although his BA and OBP took big hits. The flip side of this is that Rollins, once again, scored 100 runs. That, plus another Gold Glove (which well may happen) gives Rollins "talking points" in the HOF debate that are concrete and easy to state, whereas the case against him is more abstract, and something that would require a more sophisiticated (though not necessarily less valid) argument.

One would hope the writers, upon further evaluation, would still conclude that despite the 'marker' totals like 21 HR and 100 R, this was still a relatively poor offensive year in a hitter's yard. I'm not sure what the neutralized stats are exactly, but Rollins would be closer to that .680 Road OPS total if not for Citizens Bank. Furthermore, the OBP numbers is dreadful for a leadoff hitter. I would surmise only scoring 100 R on that team is a relatively bad number.

But you're right, the writers may not be sophisticated enough to see past those marker totals when its all said and done.

[Mikie]

I think that Lance Berkman hurt his chances in 2009, though not quite as much as Ortiz did. Somehow he posted a 139 OPS+ (!), yet this had to be the least impressive 139 OPS+ season I can remember..it seemed he never really got hot all season long. At age 33, this might be the signs of a decline, and if it is then Berkman is in trouble. Then again, he has made habit of following great seasons with subpar ones, so perhaps he will rebound next year. I think he needs a couple more great seasons, or he will end up in the same boat as Jason Giambi.

David Wright hurt his chances as well, with his total loss of power. If he continues to hit like this the rest of his career, he has no shot at the hall.

Lance had a weird year, started very slow (which he's done before), got hot (which he's done before), then went down with a calf injury shortly after the ASG that started as a day-to-day thing and became 3 weeks on the DL. He didn't do much after returning, had a notable homer drought until he hit a few the past couple weeks.

You look at his line, though (.274/.399/.509, 25 HR and 80 RBI in 136 games), and it ain't that bad, 90% of MLB players would take it in a heartbeat, but this is Lance Berkman. He's a candid guy and has admitted to being frustrated the whole year, both with his own and the team's performance, and has said several times that he'll retire when his contract is up (he's signed through next year and the team holds an option on 2011) if he doesn't return to what he considers his standard level of play. Lance has long stated that he doesn't expect to be in the game long enough to compile HOF counting stats anyway, and he played as 33 years old this year, generally considered the age after which the great ones stay steady and the merely good ones decline. We shall see, though I'd fully expect a much better year next year, regression to the mean if nothing else.

[ol' aches and pains]

To GMBF: I agree with most of your post. The guy who I think may have helped his HOF chances a wee bit that you think hurt his chances is Jimmy Rollins.

Rollins hasn't had a great season, but he's hit 21 HRs at this writing, and that helps. The Phils have made it to the postseason; if they make it back to the WS, that will be HUGE for Rollins, a shortstop. Then, too, there's the GG award. Rollins may well win the GG award, and if he does he'll have won 3 GGs in a row, making him a "perrennial GG winner at shortstop".

Shortstop has been a position where subjective evaluation plays a role. I have never liked the Jimmy Rollins-type of player, but he is the best player of his type I can think of. He's moving into "why not?" HOF territory, and while he's not the player he was in 2007, he advanced his HOF cause more than the real quality of his season would indicate.

I'm an American League fan, so I don't really follow the Phillies, but isn't Rollins a leadoff hitter?

Rollins' OBP declined by over 50 points from last year, to a pathetic (by HOF standards) .296, and he lost 18 points off his OPS+ to 85, and you believe he helped his HOF chances? If so, the HOF voters need to rethink how they evaluate players.

[Otis Nixon's Bodyguard]

Two catchers: Joe Mauer and Jorge Posada. Mauer is young, but had a season for the ages, winning his third batting title (he also deserves the MVP, and will probably get it). He's quickly building a peak that will be hard to ignore. Posada's chances still aren't great, but, after an injury-plagued '08, he showed everyone that he still has some gas in the tank and is capable of being an offensive force, so I won't count him out yet.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Two catchers: Joe Mauer and Jorge Posada. Mauer is young, but had a season for the ages, winning his third batting title (he also deserves the MVP, and will probably get it). He's quickly building a peak that will be hard to ignore. Posada's chances still aren't great, but, after an injury-plagued '08, he showed everyone that he still has some gas in the tank and is capable of being an offensive force, so I won't count him out yet.

Mauer has the kind of core for a catcher that will make it tough for him to NOT make the HOF. If he wins the MVP and the Gold Glove, he'll project forward significantly on the HOF monitor.

Posada is in the middle of the gray area for the HOF. I think he'll go in eventually, although it won't be 1st ballot. There are better catchers than Posada outside the HOF (Simmons, Torre, maybe Parrish and Freehan), but none of those guys are SO much better than Posada to make their prior induction a condition of support for Posada's HOF candidacy.

[Bravesfan1984]

Mauer has the kind of core for a catcher that will make it tough for him to NOT make the HOF. If he wins the MVP and the Gold Glove, he'll project forward significantly on the HOF monitor.

Posada is in the middle of the gray area for the HOF. I think he'll go in eventually, although it won't be 1st ballot. There are better catchers than Posada outside the HOF (Simmons, Torre, maybe Parrish and Freehan), but none of those guys are SO much better than Posada to make their prior induction a condition of support for Posada's HOF candidacy.

I can't support Posada when he has never been considered one the two best catchers in mlb. Posada has been a good player for a long time but does not have the peak you want to see in a HOF player.

[White Knight]

Mauer has the kind of core for a catcher that will make it tough for him to NOT make the HOF. If he wins the MVP and the Gold Glove, he'll project forward significantly on the HOF monitor.

I can't see him winning a GG anytime soon.

[OleMissCub]

It's a damn shame Aramis Ramirez got hurt this year because he had an outstanding year otherwise.

82 games: .317/.389/.516, 131 OPS+, 15 HR, 62 RBI

[Cougar]

I can't see [Mauer] winning a GG anytime soon.

Mauer won in 2008!

[White Knight]

Mauer won in 2008!

I mean again, and that was a terrible choice. He is an average to below average defensive catcher.

[JDD]

Johnny Damon remains a longshot, but he's improved his chances at 3,000 hits AND 2,000 runs. THAT accomplishment would CERTAINLY put him in the HOF, and would, in the end, cause a major reassessment of his career. His chances of achieving those twin milestones are improved by his play this season.

Damon came up big this year if you are scoring him on the HOF Chances scale.

He scored more than 100 runs (looks good on a baseball card) and he had career highs in homers and OPS+.

He remains on pace for 3,000 hits and would pass that mark before the age of forty if he just keeps playing six games a week and averages a base hit per game.

Thirty doubles and eighty RBI aren't really what you would look for when sizing up his chances, but since he only steals a base once every two weeks, the added value from extra base hits and RBI more than replaces the lack of stolen bases.

He almost struck out 100 times this year. That is one "triple digit" he can do without, but he now sluggs closer to .500 than .400 so...

And the hidden nugget of information in all of this is the fact that he does not have to play every day to put up these numbers. He is still getting 15-20 games off a year, so that helps keeps the legs strong I suppose.

When he gets 3,000 hits I am sure it will sneak up on a lot of people. The real shocker will be if he decides to stick around long enough to make a run at 2,000 runs scored. He can do it if he continues to be a starter for the Yankees. It all depends on that.

[Milt on Tilt]

I mean again, and that was a terrible choice. He is an average to below average defensive catcher.

Ummm. Ok? I don't consider him top of the class, but I certainly consider him above average. As does almost everyone else. After Laird, can you name a catcher that is definitely better than Mauer defensively?

http://minnesota.twins.mlb.com/media/video.jsp?mid=200905174612975&c_id=min

Yeah. Definitely below average. Do you have any evidence, objective or even otherwise, to back up your opinion? I'll even take the words of Jim Rice, because not even he has said this.

[White Knight]

Ummm. Ok? I don't consider him top of the class, but I certainly consider him above average. As does almost everyone else. After Laird, can you name a catcher that is definitely better than Mauer defensively?

http://minnesota.twins.mlb.com/media/video.jsp?mid=200905174612975&c_id=min

Yeah. Definitely below average. Do you have any evidence, objective or even otherwise, to back up your opinion? I'll even take the words of Jim Rice, because not even he has said this.

I know what it's like to have a terrible defensive catcher on my team. I've had one since the mid 90's with Posada, and I know what one looks like. Mauer is certainly better that Jorge, but the general opinion is he's not that good on defense. Seeing him play, I can see why. Molina is a lot better, but obviously he doesn't qualify being a backup catcher. Mauer is about average to slightly below. I would take a good 10 before him.

[nyykan_t]

I know what it's like to have a terrible defensive catcher on my team. I've had one since the mid 90's with Posada, and I know what one looks like. Mauer is certainly better that Jorge, but the general opinion is he's not that good on defense. Seeing him play, I can see why. Molina is a lot better, but obviously he doesn't qualify being a backup catcher. Mauer is about average to slightly below. I would take a good 10 before him.
I think the general opinion is that he is very good on defense. Seeing both plays, I see Mauer is at least as good as Molina.

[Milt on Tilt]

I think the general opinion is that he is very good on defense. Seeing both plays, I see Mauer is at least as good as Molina.

I think he was referring to Posada. But I still have to heavily disagree with him. Taking the top 30 catchers by innings caught I'd guess you rank Mauer no worse than 15th, more likely in the 6-10 range? I could just as easily, based on this last series, claim that Posada is the worst defensive catcher in all of baseball.

Based on actual evidence there are a couple of things you can measure, first ability to block balls. THT attempts to do this by (WP+PB)/G. Mauer's rank of the top 30 catchers by innings caught the last 5 years:
9th
9th
20th
8th
9th

Ability to stop the running game, combination of keeping runners from running, and throwing runners out. First, SBA/G rank:
6th
3rd
1st
3rd
3rd

And CS%:
10th
13th
2nd
9th
6th

Throw in the fact that scouts and baseball folk love him. So, the sabermetric community likes him, the baseball community loves him, but Whiteknight thinks he's below average.....