David Wright and Citi Field [Archive]

GiambiJuice

07-21-2009, 02:44 PM

I know it's probably too waaay to early in Wrights career to start talking about the Hall of Fame. I was just thinking about the significant drop in his power numbers since the Mets moved into Citi Field. To date, he has 5 homers in 348 at bats (or about 1 HR every 69 AB)

It's a small sample, I know, but even if his rate increases somewhat and we see him pound out 13-18 homers per year during his peak years instead of the 27-37 he would've been hitting at Shea, do you think this will significantly impact his Hall of Fame chances when it's all said and done?

brett

07-21-2009, 03:06 PM

When you put a power hitter into a low home run park, you lower his relative value, not just his raw value (because power hitters get a higher percentage of their value from home runs than average players). For example, Barry Bonds percent increase in home runs in the 2000s was actually less than the leagues percent increase if I remember those numbers right, but since home runs made up so much more of his value, it raised his OPS+. If a home run hitter gets 30 and the average is 10, and a new park give the home run hitter 36 and the average guy 12 (both a 20% increase) the home run hitter is still getting a relative boost to his overall value.

Its odd because team home runs are about cut in half for NY, but his are down to 1/3 to 1/4 of his recent rates.

But that being said, he only has 2 road home runs this year. He's hitting better on the road though than at home by far in a raw and relative sense.

He's still so young that even if his power gets cut down that much, he has a good chance (as we can say this early) of 3000 hits and a near .300 average and for a third baseman from NY that is a lock.

mwiggins

07-21-2009, 03:11 PM

Yes, that kind of drop in his power would affect his chances. He could still get in, but he has less margin for error. His extreme number of K's will also affect his chances.

Take this season...even though he'll probably end up with a very nice OPS+ number, how impressive will it look to voters in 25 years? .320 with 8-10 HR's and 180 K's for a 3B won't jump off the page, even with a lot of walks and a great OBP.

mwiggins

07-21-2009, 03:14 PM

Its odd because team home runs are about cut in half for NY, but his are down to 1/3 to 1/4 of his recent rates.

But that being said, he only has 2 road home runs this year. He's hitting better on the road though than at home by far in a raw and relative sense.

He's admited to changing his approach this season because of the ballpark. It's not just that he's hitting a lot of warning track flyballs at home that would have been HR's last year. That's probably why the drop in power on the road.

I would guess he'll find some happy medium and hit for more power down the road, and they'll likely move the fences at some point.

GiambiJuice

07-21-2009, 03:22 PM

The one guy I keep thinking of is Brian Giles. Imagine if we would've signed with a team like Philly or the Whitesox or some other team that plays in a hitter friendly park instead of signing with San Diego and playing these last few years in Petco. I think he would be a much more borderline candidate. Now I doubt he'll get any consideration, besides from the sabermetric people.

jjpm74

07-21-2009, 10:04 PM

New field, tons of team injuries...David Wright might not make the hall because he is showing that he is not a team leader in the wake of his team's injuries. I doubt the park effect will factor in.

GiambiJuice

07-22-2009, 07:33 AM

Captain Cold Nose

07-22-2009, 07:43 AM

since when is being a team leader a requirement for getting in? Was Rogers Hornsby a team leader?

Yes, he was. He wouldn't have become a manager at 29 if he wasn't. He may not have been well-liked and was a baseball perfectionist, but he was a team leader. The reason the Cardinals traded him was because the owner didn't want to let Hornsby give his players an off-day. Leaders look out for their teammates when they can.

Jsquared83

07-22-2009, 10:49 AM

Also Wright's lack of protection in the batting order due to the tons of injuries for the Mets this year isnt helping. The huge decline is odd though. Shea was never a hitters park either but yet he was a consistant 30 HR guy up to this year.

Cougar

07-22-2009, 12:40 PM

New field, tons of team injuries...David Wright might not make the hall because he is showing that he is not a team leader in the wake of his team's injuries. I doubt the park effect will factor in.

Not a team leader?? The Mets lost their leadoff hitter and shortstop (Reyes), their cleanup-hitting first baseman (Delgado), their #3 hitting gold glove center fielder (Beltran), their #2 starter (Maine), and their #2 set-up man (Putz) -- and I'm leaving some out.

How Wright is responsible for his team having a lousy season while sporting half a Triple A lineup is beyond me? What's he supposed to do, bat in five places in the lineup and pitch the 8th? That would be leadership, I suppose.

Forgive me, but that statement is beyond ridiculous, and seems out of character for a smart poster.

Ace Venom

07-22-2009, 01:27 PM

David Wright's big problem will be that he plays in a golden age for offensive third basemen.

jjpm74

07-22-2009, 02:06 PM

Not a team leader?? The Mets lost their leadoff hitter and shortstop (Reyes), their cleanup-hitting first baseman (Delgado), their #3 hitting gold glove center fielder (Beltran), their #2 starter (Maine), and their #2 set-up man (Putz) -- and I'm leaving some out.

How Wright is responsible for his team having a lousy season while sporting half a Triple A lineup is beyond me? What's he supposed to do, bat in five places in the lineup and pitch the 8th? That would be leadership, I suppose.

Forgive me, but that statement is beyond ridiculous, and seems out of character for a smart poster.

Of course Wright isn't at fault for the Mets imploding. That team suffers from some really bad luck this year in terms of injuries. No oe is at fault for their implosion. I'm simply pointing out the fact that he hasn't emerged as the leader that everyone expected him to be. A lot of NY Mets fans seem to think he's going to be like a Derek Jeter type figure who assumes a leadership role. Wright is a class act, but he is clearly not even the best player on his own team. To me, a player needs to be among the best on his team to qualify as a potential HOFer. Wright is young and may eventually get to the role of team leader and/or superstar veteran, but he isn't there yet.

Honus Wagner Rules

07-22-2009, 02:09 PM

Of course Wright isn't at fault for the Mets imploding. That team suffers from some really bad luck this year in terms of injuries. No oe is at fault for their implosion. I'm simply pointing out the fact that he hasn't emerged as the leader that everyone expected him to be. A lot of NY Mets fans seem to think he's going to be like a Derek Jeter type figure who assumes a leadership role. Wright is a class act, but he is clearly not even the best player on his own team. To me, a player needs to be among the best on his team to qualify as a potential HOFer. Wright is young and may eventually get to the role of team leader and/or superstar veteran, but he isn't there yet.
You don't think Wright is among the best players on his own team? :crazy

jjpm74

07-22-2009, 02:11 PM

You don't think Wright is among the best players on his own team? :crazy

Beltran and Reyes are definitely better players than him and Delgado is definitely more of a veteran leader than him.

Honus Wagner Rules

07-22-2009, 02:33 PM

Beltran and Reyes are definitely better players than him and Delgado is definitely more of a veteran leader than him.
Jose Reyes is a better player than David Wright? I find that assertion to be untenable. Wright is far better hitter than Reyes. What does Delgado do specifically that makes him a "better" leader?

PVNICK

07-23-2009, 04:49 AM

Jose Reyes is a better player than David Wright? I find that assertion to be untenable. Wright is far better hitter than Reyes. What does Delgado do specifically that makes him a "better" leader? I believe Delgado starts hitting after the manager gets fired.

Honus Wagner Rules

07-23-2009, 11:24 AM

I believe Delgado starts hitting after the manager gets fired.

:laugh :laugh

nerfan

07-23-2009, 12:07 PM

Domenic

07-23-2009, 12:22 PM

Beltran and Reyes are definitely better players than him and Delgado is definitely more of a veteran leader than him.

Since 2005:

By WAR
Wright - 28.6
Beltran - 23.1
Reyes - 19.2
Delgado - 12.2

By WARP1
Wright - 31.6
Beltran - 34.3
Reyes - 21.3
Delgado - 15.7

By EQA
Wright - .316
Beltran - .305
Reyes - .279
Delgado - .303

I think an argument can be made for Beltran over Wright, though I think Wright should receive a bit of a boost because he may not have even peaked yet. I don't think, however, that there's a good argument for either Reyes or Delgado being better (or even nearly as good as) than Wright.

Cougar

07-23-2009, 12:42 PM

I agree that David Wright's not the best player on his own team- that would be Johan Santana. And Wright and Beltran are pretty much tied. But at this point in time, Wright is a lot better than Delgado or Reyes.

I've always thought this was an astonishingly arbitrary standard, in any event. Where does this "best player on own team" leave Lou Gehrig (Ruth), or Willie McCovey (Mays), or Sam Crawford (Cobb), or Harry Heilmann (Cobb) or Don Drysdale (Koufax), or Steve Carlton (Schmidt), or Jimmie Foxx (Lefty Grove), or Al Simmons (Grove/Foxx) or Joe Morgan (Bench), or Pete Rose (Bench/Morgan), or Yogi Berra (DiMaggio/Mantle), or Whitey Ford (Mantle), or Duke Snider (Campanella)? I could go on, and some of you might take Duke over Campy or Morgan over Bench, etc., but I think I've made my point.

Wright is arguably the best everyday player on the Mets. In any given year, it might be him, or Beltran, or Reyes...Delgado may even be capable of another 1.000+ OPS season like he had in 2000 or 2003 with Toronto.

Looking at 2008, Wright led the Mets in BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, doubles, total bases, bases on balls, and RBI; he was second in runs scored (by one), hits, home runs, and games played (160/162). He stole 15 bases in 20 attempts and won his second straight Gold Glove at third base.

Yeah, I'm going to say Wright was the best everyday player on the Mets last year.

Further, I could practically rewrite the above paragraph with regards to 2007, with only a couple changes (first in runs, second in RBI, first in hits, etc.)

And he's the best this year, if only through attrition.

So, again, I say this argument is unadulterated bunk.

nerfan

07-23-2009, 12:47 PM

I've always thought this was an astonishingly arbitrary standard, in any event. Where does this "best player on own team" leave Lou Gehrig (Ruth), or Willie McCovey (Mays), or Sam Crawford (Cobb), or Harry Heilmann (Cobb) or Don Drysdale (Koufax), or Steve Carlton (Schmidt), or Jimmie Foxx (Lefty Grove), or Al Simmons (Grove/Foxx) or Joe Morgan (Bench), or Pete Rose (Bench/Morgan), or Yogi Berra (DiMaggio/Mantle), or Whitey Ford (Mantle), or Duke Snider (Campanella)? I could go on, and some of you might take Duke over Campy or Morgan over Bench, etc., but I think I've made my point.

Wright is arguably the best everyday player on the Mets. In any given year, it might be him, or Beltran, or Reyes...Delgado may even be capable of another 1.000+ OPS season like he had in 2000 or 2003 with Toronto.

Looking at 2008, Wright led the Mets in BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, doubles, total bases, bases on balls, and RBI; he was second in runs scored (by one), hits, home runs, and games played (160/162). He stole 15 bases in 20 attempts and won his second straight Gold Glove at third base.

Yeah, I'm going to say Wright was the best everyday player on the Mets last year.

Further, I could practically rewrite the above paragraph with regards to 2007, with only a couple changes (first in runs, second in RBI, first in hits, etc.)

And he's the best this year, if only through attrition.

So, again, I say this argument is unadulterated bunk.

No, I agree with you. However, Beltran's defense is a lot better than Wright's. And yeah, this does leave men like Lou Gehrig or Willie McCovey in a sorry state. That said, the Mets problem is more with the bottom of their team than the top.

You've got

a) Two valuable offensive players on the team right now (Wright and Castillo)
b) One above-average starting pitcher (Santana)
c) A bullpen with only two solidly above-average players (KRod and Feliciano)

You can argue that the Mets have the best core in baseball if everyone was healthy. You could also argue that they have the worst supporting players. I mean, Jeff Francoeur? Seriously?

Cougar

07-23-2009, 12:50 PM

What's worse, it looked like Beltran and Delgado were going to have monster seasons before they went down. (Reyes seems to be regressing a little, but remains well above average.)

Cougar

07-23-2009, 01:28 PM

Sheffield was helpful for a while. At this point I'd like to see him play one healthy week so the Mets can trade him as a righty bat to a contender for something. (The Cubs, maybe.)

Feliciano's value will never be higher (he's pitching over his head this season, IMHO), so he should be sent to a contender as well; everyone wants one more guy to get lefties out.

I'm higher on Castillo than most people, but he is overpaid; if a contender with a hole at 2b is willing to eat that contract, so be it. I wouldn't give him away for nothing like some might, however. Castillo is still pretty good offensively as an OBP specialist; however, his defense has slipped badly since his Gold Glove days in South Florida. He's now mediocre, which isn't really acceptable in an up the middle position if the guy isn't really raking.

Francoeur is only 25; getting Frenchy for an ordinary OF on the wrong side of 30 (Church) and giving him at-bats in a lost season to see if all he needed was a change of scenery is an OK flyer to take. (As long as they don't start to build the team around him in 2010.)

nerfan

07-23-2009, 01:30 PM

Cougar

07-23-2009, 01:39 PM

I'd agree with the first three. But Frenchy is near-worthless.

I think you're probably right. But three years ago Frenchy was an SI cover boy. (Maybe that's the problem.)

What's the harm in giving him two months worth of playing time on a 4th place team to see if he can't find himself again?

If he doesn't before rosters expand, Nick Evans gets the RF job for September.

Cougar

07-23-2009, 01:40 PM

What's worse, it looked like Beltran and Delgado were going to have monster seasons before they went down. (Reyes seems to be regressing a little, but remains well above average.)

Am I the only one who's starting to get a Garry Templeton vibe from Reyes?

nerfan

07-23-2009, 01:44 PM

Am I the only one who's starting to get a Garry Templeton vibe from Reyes?

No. Don't even go there.

But now that you mention it...

PVNICK

07-23-2009, 01:53 PM

Am I the only one who's starting to get a Garry Templeton vibe from Reyes?

I never thought of it that way, but result wise, not personality wise, its a good analogy. At least I'm not the only one who thinks we may have already seen the best of Reyes. I hope I'm wrong.

Cougar

07-23-2009, 02:01 PM

No. Don't even go there.

But now that you mention it...

Templeton was a five tool SS; a good fielder, if slightly erratic, with blazing speed, surprising power, and an electric bat (albeit with very iffy plate discipline) who peaked at 23 or 24, and then became an ordinary, if solid, shortstop for about a decade after that.

He was famously traded for Ozzie Smith, which really hurt him...he was the classic artificial turf hitter in old Busch Stadium, skittering hard grounders and Baltimore chops all over the field and converting them into singles, doubles, and triples. Playing on grass in San Diego, those turned into outs. He also had some injuries and lost what little HR power he had, as well as some range. (Whitey Herzog totally fleeced the Padres, by the way.)

It does make you nervous. However, Reyes already has more plate discipline than Templeton ever had, and he'd been putting up his numbers on grass at Shea. He steals a lot more bases too, although that will almost certainly start to fall off in the next few years.

nerfan

07-23-2009, 02:02 PM

Templeton was a five tool SS; a good fielder, if slightly erratic, with blazing speed, surprising power, and an electric bat (albeit with very iffy plate discipline) who peaked at 23 or 24, and then became an ordinary, if solid, shortstop for about a decade after that.

He was famously traded for Ozzie Smith, which really hurt him...he was the classic artificial turf hitter in old Busch Stadium, skittering hard grounders and Baltimore chops all over the field and converting them into singles, doubles, and triples. Playing on grass in San Diego, those turned into outs. He also had some injuries and lost what little HR power he had, as well as some range. (Whitey Herzog totally fleeced the Padres, by the way.)

It does make you nervous. However, Reyes already has more plate discipline than Templeton ever had, and he'd been putting up his numbers on grass at Shea. He steals a lot more bases too, although that will almost certainly start to fall off in the next few years.

Reyes' best seasons have already been better than Templeton's.

Cougar

07-23-2009, 02:03 PM

I never thought of it that way, but result wise, not personality wise, its a good analogy. At least I'm not the only one who thinks we may have already seen the best of Reyes. I hope I'm wrong.

I don't remember much about Templeton's persona...I seem to recall he was impossibly cocky in St. Louis. To what exactly were you referring.

Anyway, I was thinking as much about skill sets as about results, although maybe that's just looking at the same thing from a different angle.

nerfan

07-23-2009, 02:12 PM

I don't remember much about Templeton's persona...I seem to recall he was impossibly cocky in St. Louis. To what exactly were you referring.

Anyway, I was thinking as much about skill sets as about results, although maybe that's just looking at the same thing from a different angle.

"If I ain't startin', I ain't departin'!"

Cougar

07-23-2009, 02:19 PM

Templeton's comps through age 24: http://www.baseball-reference.com/friv/scomp_bat.cgi?I=templga01:Garry%20Templeton&st=int&compage=24&age=24

Through age 25: http://www.baseball-reference.com/friv/scomp_bat.cgi?I=templga01:Garry%20Templeton&st=int&compage=25&age=25

Career:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/friv/scomp_bat.cgi?I=templga01:Garry%20Templeton&st=career&compage=&age=

jjpm74

07-23-2009, 03:28 PM

I think an argument can be made for Beltran over Wright, though I think Wright should receive a bit of a boost because he may not have even peaked yet. I don't think, however, that there's a good argument for either Reyes or Delgado being better (or even nearly as good as) than Wright.

I didn't say Delgado was a better player than Wright. I said he was more of a veteran presence in the dugout than Wright.

Reyes is putting up comparable numbers at a position that has a lot more defensive value than Wright's position.

As far as the best player argument, let me clarify; how many MVP level seasons has David Wright had? According to WARP3, he's had 1 and maybe arguably 2 as he comes up just shy 1 other year. He's also had all-star level seasons in each of his 1st 5 full seasons. If he can keep that pace up for another 7 years, is he a HOFer? Probably. Will he? It's hard to say. He's only 26 years old and in his 5th full season. Will park effect factor into his career? It may hurt his power numbers in the short term, but even before the move, he topped 30 home runs a grand total of 2 times in his career. Maybe he isn't a power hitter.

Domenic

07-23-2009, 05:38 PM

I didn't say Delgado was a better player than Wright. I said he was more of a veteran presence in the dugout than Wright.

Have you been in the dugout with Delgado and Wright?

Reyes is putting up comparable numbers at a position that has a lot more defensive value than Wright's position.

Reyes' numbers aren't comparable, though. In less games and at-bats, Wright crushes Reyes in WAR, WARP1, EQA, OPS+, and Win Shares (132 to 116).

I'm not arguing that Wright is a future Hall of Famer, but to say that Reyes is "definitely better" than Wright is entirely false. Short of being in the dugout in Citi Field, we have no way of knowing whose presence is more valuable to the team, so the argument for Wright over Delgado is entirely moot, as well.

Beltran and Wright do seem to be a toss-up, depending on what metric you look at - WAR and Win Shares favor Wright, WARP1 favors Beltran (in terms of their time spent with the Mets). For his career, Beltran has undoubtedly been more valuable than Wright - with the Mets, I'm leaning a bit towards Wright.

jjpm74

07-23-2009, 06:01 PM

Have you been in the dugout with Delgado and Wright?

Yes, last year in Shea Stadium. Delgado was talking up his team mates. Wright was sitting there like a statue. I used to have season tickets 2 rows behind their dugout at Shea, so I got to see and hear quite a bit of what goes on in the dugout.

Edit: More accurately, I used to have access to a box that was 2 rows back and usually ended up going to about 10-15 games a season. Same with the Yankees when they were in the old Yankee Stadium.

Domenic

07-23-2009, 09:06 PM

Yes, last year in Shea Stadium. Delgado was talking up his team mates. Wright was sitting there like a statue. I used to have season tickets 2 rows behind their dugout at Shea, so I got to see and hear quite a bit of what goes on in the dugout.

Edit: More accurately, I used to have access to a box that was 2 rows back and usually ended up going to about 10-15 games a season. Same with the Yankees when they were in the old Yankee Stadium.

Clearly your limited insight into the interactions between teammates is enough to make a judgment call on whether or not a player is more valuable to a team, in terms of leadership. I'm sure that you can hear everything perfectly from two rows back in a stadium filled with tens of thousands of people and accurately gauge its impact on people, to boot.

None of us are qualified to make such a call on someone's value, and its inane to argue the contrary.

STLCards2

07-23-2009, 09:45 PM

...I seem to recall he was impossibly cocky in St. Louis. .

That would be the correct perception - true or not. Giving the St. Louis fans the middle-finger is a no-no in a city that wants fan/city loyal players.

jjpm74

07-23-2009, 10:45 PM

Clearly your limited insight into the interactions between teammates is enough to make a judgment call on whether or not a player is more valuable to a team, in terms of leadership. I'm sure that you can hear everything perfectly from two rows back in a stadium filled with tens of thousands of people and accurately gauge its impact on people, to boot.

The only thing that's clear is that you weren't expecting me to call you out on your out of line comment and that now you're just fishing for a flame war. I also never said anywhere that Carlos Delgado was more valuable to the team than David Wright. MERELY THAT CARLOS DELGADO IS A VETERAN PRESENCE. WHEREAS DAVID WRIGHT IS NOT YET AT THAT POINT IN HIS CAREER:

Carlos Delgado: 2035 games played, 8,657 PAs
David Wright: 796 games played, 3453 PAs

Delgado clearly has much more major league experience than David Wright.

I'd love to hear a sound statistical explanation of this, however:

None of us are qualified to make such a call on someone's value, and its inane to argue the contrary.

Making a blanket generalization over and over doesn't make it a fact, and doesn't refute my opinion contrary to whatever your narrow view of the world of baseball is.

Domenic

07-24-2009, 09:04 AM

I also never said anywhere that Carlos Delgado was more valuable to the team than David Wright. MERELY THAT CARLOS DELGADO IS A VETERAN PRESENCE. WHEREAS DAVID WRIGHT IS NOT YET AT THAT POINT IN HIS CAREER:

Carlos Delgado: 2035 games played, 8,657 PAs
David Wright: 796 games played, 3453 PAs

Delgado clearly has much more major league experience than David Wright.

I other words, because Delgado has played more games, he's a better presence in the dugout? By that logic, Gary Sheffield is a better presence in the dugout, correct?

Making a blanket generalization over and over doesn't make it a fact, and doesn't refute my opinion contrary to whatever your narrow view of the world of baseball is.

Your opinion is based off of next to nothing. You believe that Delgado's presence in the dugout is more valuable (in some minor way) because he's played more games and he was louder than Wright during a specific game last season.

You have never been in the Mets dugout or in the Mets clubhouse to see how Wright and Delgado impact the team beyond the field. You have never discussed their attitudes with other players on the Mets, or asked other players who is the better "motivator" or "advice-giver."

My point is, none of us have any idea what impact a player has beyond the boxscore. We are not in the position to say Player A is a better leader/motivator/presence than Player B, because we aren't a part of the team and don't see the impact of their respective presences.

nerfan

07-24-2009, 11:10 AM

I other words, because Delgado has played more games, he's a better presence in the dugout? By that logic, Gary Sheffield is a better presence in the dugout, correct?

Your opinion is based off of next to nothing. You believe that Delgado's presence in the dugout is more valuable (in some minor way) because he's played more games and he was louder than Wright during a specific game last season.

You have never been in the Mets dugout or in the Mets clubhouse to see how Wright and Delgado impact the team beyond the field. You have never discussed their attitudes with other players on the Mets, or asked other players who is the better "motivator" or "advice-giver."

My point is, none of us have any idea what impact a player has beyond the boxscore. We are not in the position to say Player A is a better leader/motivator/presence than Player B, because we aren't a part of the team and don't see the impact of their respective presences.

There's a certain man with 12,606 plate appearances that I'd like to be a slightly better clubhouse presence.