Hall of Fame Purgatory – Election #6 [Archive]

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Freakshow

07-10-2009, 08:53 AM

Here is a link to the previous election (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=90915).
======================================
This is the official Roster of Voters who are eligible to vote in this election:

Ace Venom
AstrosFan
Brad Harris
Captain Cold Nose
Cougar
Domenic
Fielding Marshall
Freakshow
gman5431
jalbright
jjpm74
Paul Wendt
PVNICK
Sockeye
STLCards2
Tiboreau
Windy City Fan

If anyone else would like to join in and vote, go to the introductory thread (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=89253) and apply; you're in if there are no objections from any current voters. Also refer to that thread for a fuller understanding of the rules.
======================================
Each voter must do three things:

1) Rank these 15 players in order. In this project, you are a voter for the hall of fame, so players should be ranked based on hall of fame criteria, the sum of all their contributions to the game. If you feel a player is more appropriately elected to the HOF as a contributor, you may disregard his non-playing contributions in your analysis.
v1.0 Election #6 AWS Peak WARP3 Peak
293 Bobby Bonds 305 29.1 | 65.2 7.23
304 Cupid Childs 277 29.9 | 58.4 7.12
321 Wilbur Cooper 285 28.3 | 50.8 5.75
274 Larry Doyle 309 28.9 | 41.7 4.59
282 Bob Elliott 294 26.8 | 66.3 7.22
348 Charley Jones 312 31.3 | 55.1 6.78
296 Carl Mays 275 29.2 | 55.3 6.33
266 Cal McVey 238 32.3 | 29.7 4.91
278 Alejandro Oms 397 28.4 | 65.2 5.94
240 Dave Parker 331 29.6 | 58.5 6.96
308 Billy Pierce 259 23.0 | 60.7 6.34
305 Lip Pike 185 27.4 | 28.7 4.99
281 Dan Quisenberry 163 21.5 | 31.1 4.49
301 Willie Randolph 318 23.7 | 70.7 6.16
338 Luis Tiant 258 23.0 | 67.9 6.29
A maximum of ten players will be “elected” at one time.

The pink elephant in the room is, of course, steroids. I would advise voters to treat the PED-tainted candidates with a similar degree of sanctions that MLB has placed upon them. IOW, if a candidate has never been penalized by MLB for PED use it is inappropriate for voters to penalize him in their analysis for ranking them.

I don’t want this thread to become bogged down in yet another PED discussion, so persons who want to debate this should take it to one of the many threads at BBF dealing with this issue. I’m simply requesting voters to avoid going down the Rabbit Hole of suspicion and rumor and to base their analysis on what is known – on the evidence. Let our group be a shining example to the BBWAA as to a rational approach to candidates from the “steroids era”.

2) For each candidate, signify Yes (Y) or No (N) in answer to this question: Should this player be in the Hall of Fame?

We all have our own idea of how many people should be in the Hall of Fame. For this project, I’m asking voters to use a standard of value that is similar to that established by the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum in Cooperstown, NY. They have now enshrined 231 players from MLB and Negro leagues. This gives us the definition of “Hall of Famer” now in use by the Hall: one of the top 231 players from MLB or Negro leagues who retired in 2003 or earlier. In practice, many of us employ a “tolerance zone”, extending our range of Yeses somewhat beyond our personal 231 player queue, thus acknowledging that a Gray Area exists.

From everything I have seen, there are at least 35 candidates for the HOF, and perhaps more than 60, who have a good case for being ranked as one of the top 231 eligible players outside the Hall. Thus, for this election I would still expect most ballots to have a few Yeses.

A player will be considered “elected” to the Hall of Purgatory if he finishes in the top ten, and a majority of voters say Yes.

3) Rank your top 7 players from this list of 20 upcoming candidates. The top players from this runoff will replace players who drop off the ballot:
v1.0 Runoff for next ballot AWS Peak WARP3 Peak
347 Wally Berger 255 30.8 | 51.8 6.53
290 Tommy Bridges 253 21.9 | 71.2 6.31
250 Pete Browning 267 29.2 | 48.6 6.09
300 Gavvy Cravath 340 31.6 | 59.4 6.04
333 Gil Hodges 276 26.3 | 56.0 6.11
316 Tommy John 295 18.5 | 69.8 5.89
353 Bob Johnson 312 26.0 | 66.4 6.13
364 Jim Kaat 272 20.8 | 45.8 5.61
346 Herman Long 308 27.9 | 49.6 5.30
357 Dick Lundy 347 25.3 | 72.2 5.45
312 Tony Mullane 313 32.3 | 45.0 5.47
315 Tony Oliva 246 28.0 | 52.8 6.43
330 Dick Redding 285 28.1 |
335 Jimmy Ryan 369 29.8 | 58.7 5.39
323 Bret Saberhagen 199 21.0 | 70.4 7.94
362 Lee Smith 205 16.7 | 37.5 4.94
283 Reggie Smith 337 26.8 | 65.1 5.84
280 Vern Stephens 269 27.4 | 50.5 5.51
310 Dave Stieb 217 22.7 | 57.8 6.42
317 Quincy Trouppe 269 25.7 |
========================================
Notes on charts
--The first column is their rank on the 500 Player List, v1.0 (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=81709&page=99&post=#3939).
--AWS = career Adjusted Win Shares. Increased for war credit (Bridges, Redding), race credit, short seasons, blackballed (Jones, Mullane), Japan (Smith), minor leagues (Cravath, Johnson). Decreased for fledgling (Browning, Mullane, Jones) and war-depleted (Mays, Doyle, Cooper, Elliott, Stephens, Johnson, Bridges, Cravath) leagues. Pre-1893 pitching win shares reduced by 50% (Caruthers, Mullane, GVH).
--Peak = Weighted Average of Top 7 years in Adjusted Win Shares.
--Career total of WARP3 from Baseball Prospectus. Increased for war credit, race credit, Japanese play, minor league play and being blackballed.
--Peak = Weighted Average of Top 7 years in WARP3.
--Data for Negro leaguers (Oms, Redding, Lundy, Trouppe) are adapted from their MLE’s at Baseballthinkfactory (http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/hall_of_merit/discussion/the_negro_league_home_page).
--Players who played primarily before 1893 (Browning, McVey, Mullane, Pike, Jones) are increased to a 152-game basis for AWS.
--AWS for NA (1871-75) are estimated from WARP3 numbers.
--Credit for pre-NA play (before 1871) was not calculated for Pike and McVey.
========================================
A Few Words About the Queue
The queue of candidates isn’t your list or mine. In short, it’s a consensus built from ruminating over this issue for 30-some years. Yes, numbers are paramount – hey, I’m an accountant. However, I’ve incorporated every reasonable ranking system I’ve run across. The Ultimate Quest for Candidates (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=68815) project was very influential. I also consider their “popularity” as a HOF candidate. I look for players who do well both by the numbers and by opinion. You tend to see the same names popping up over and over, and I’ve tried to put these guys at the top. However, there are always those divisive candidates.

Look at our earliest candidates, Joe Start and Lip Pike. Both began playing at the game’s highest level long before 1871; each is missing more than a third of their career in the official record and nearly half of their prime. We can get a quick and dirty estimate of their career value by multiplying their totals by 1.5. This method shows Start with 443 Adjusted Win shares and 60.3 WARP3. Pike is boosted to 278 AWS and 43.1 WARP3. These are in spite of Win Shares underallocation to 19th century defense and WARP3’s severe timeline discount on 1870’s players. Obviously, the game they excelled at was very different from the baseball that we know. In addition, pro baseball had only recently begun to spread beyond the northeast region of the country. Bill James quickly dismisses them for these reasons.

Well, it’s the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum, right? If that last word is going to be meaningful, it’s incumbent upon the Hall to identify and honor the greatest players from every era of the game’s history. At present, we see only scant representation from the first twenty years of professional play (1869-1888).

Average no. Hall of Famers playing semi-regular 1871-1887: 8.9 (median: 7 / range: 5-15)
Average no. Hall of Famers playing semi-regular 1888-1904: 24.4 (median: 24 / range: 19-29)

The Hall of Fame should enshrine another 10-15 players from the 1870s-80s era.
========================================
It is helpful to me if you only list players by their last name on your ballot (or last name, first initial). If you want to change your ballot some time after it is first posted, make a post in this thread that you have done so. Balloting will continue until everyone has voted, but not more than two weeks. I will try to get the results up as soon after this as possible.

Discussion of the rankings, players, rules, methodologies, etc. should take place in this thread. Some of these candidates you may never have seriously considered for the Hall, so I would expect voters to engage in discussion and be open to persuasion regarding these players. Try to imagine this as a final hearing on these candidates, to accept or reject them forever, and seriously consider each player’s qualifications. Go beyond the numbers and look for contributions in the minor leagues or non-playing or anecdotal. Consider whether a player deserves a bonus for playing a position, or in an era, that’s underrepresented in the Hall’s membership.
========================================
So far, these players have been named to dwell in the Hall of Purgatory:
1. Ron Santo, 2. Bert Blyleven, 3. Tim Raines, 4. Roberto Alomar, 5. Barry Larkin, 6. Bill Dahlen, 7. Dick Allen, 8. Deacon White, 9. Alan Trammell, 10. Bobby Grich
11. Paul Hines, 12. Minnie Minoso, 13. Sherry Magee, 14. Ted Simmons, 15. Mark McGwire, 16. Lou Whitaker, 17. Joe Torre, 18. Edgar Martinez, 19. Darrell Evans, 20. Stan Hack
21. George Gore, 22. Will Clark, 23. Heinie Groh, 24. Wes Ferrell, 25. Ross Barnes, 26. Andre Dawson, 27. Jack Glasscock, 28. Dwight Evans, 29. Homerun Johnson, 30. Fred McGriff
31. John Beckwith, 32. Charlie Bennett, 33. Harry Stovey, 34. Hardy Richardson, 35. Jimmy Wynn, 36. Keith Hernandez, 37. Ken Boyer, 38. Bill Freehan, 39. Graig Nettles, 40. Dale Murphy
41. Ezra Sutton, 42. Joe Start, 43. Bob Caruthers, 44. Jimmy Sheckard, 45. Tommy Leach, 46. Albert Belle, 47. Bucky Walters, 48. Charlie Keller, 49. George Van Haltren, 50. Dobie Moore

Freakshow

07-10-2009, 08:56 AM

Freakshow

07-10-2009, 08:59 AM

Freakshow

07-10-2009, 09:16 AM

Many people may be surprised at the numbers they see for Gavvy Cravath. Looking in their Win Shares book they see him with a career total of 202 and one year that he reached 30. Why do I have 340 for career and 31.6 for a 7-year average?

I'm convinced he deserves a lot of credit for being kept in the "minors". Remember, there were no farm systems at the time. In many cases a minor league team could hold onto a player as long as they wanted. This was the case for Cravath at ages 25-26 and 28-30. He was a great player in those years who was denied the chance to demonstrate that fact in MLB.

The analysts at Baseballthinkfactory have devised MLE's for Cravath in those years. Read through his thread at the Hall of Merit (http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/hall_of_merit/discussion/gavvy_cravath) for a thorough discussion of his case. I have also translated his career to a 162-game schedule.

To briefly summarize, Cravath adds 122 schedule-adjusted win shares for those nearly-five minor league seasons. Schedule-adjusting adds 16 win shares to the years he actually played in MLB (less a slight war competition discount for 1918).

Bob Johnson is also given a year of credit for his play in the minors in 1932. I'll try to answer any questions regarding Cravath's adjustment or any other player that interests you.

jalbright

07-10-2009, 10:23 AM

jalbright

07-10-2009, 10:28 AM

My ballot

1. Mays
2. Cooper
3. Parker
4. Quisenberry
5. Oms
6. Doyle
7. Childs--the top seven are "yes" votes
=============================
8. Randolph--N
9. Elliott--N
10. Pierce--N
11. Bonds--N
12. Tiant--N
13, Jones--N
14. McVey--N
15. Pike--N

Runoff
1. Trouppe
2. Stephens
3. Lundy
4. Long
5. Mullane
6. Redding
7. Berger

jjpm74

07-10-2009, 10:31 AM

Ranked Players:

1. Dan Quisenberry Y
2. Lip Pike Y
3. Bob Elliott N
4. Willie Randolph N
5. Wilbur Cooper N
6. Cupid Childs N
7. Larry Doyle N
8. Charley Jones N
9. Alejandro Oms N
10. Bobby Bonds N
11. Carl Mays N
12. Cal McVey N
13. Dave Parker N
14. Billy Pierce N
15. Luis Tiant N

Runoff:

1. Wally Berger
2. Bob Johnson
3. Dick Redding
4. Quincy Trouppe
5. Tommy Bridges
6. Dave Stieb
7. Herman Long

The guys in gray I have supported in various projects, but find just outside the NBHoFM.

PVNICK

07-10-2009, 01:24 PM

1. Randolph
2. Bonds
3. Oms
4. Parker
5. Elliott
6. Charley Jones
7. Childs
8. McVey
9. Mays
10. Pike
11. Doyle
12. Tiant
13. Cooper
14. Pierce
15. Quisenberry

despite what I might have said in past polls its no to all.

1. Lundy
2. Reggie Smith
3. Ryan
4. B. Johnson
5. Long
6. Redding
7. Oliva

Any ideas on why WARP is so high on Saberhagen but WS isn't?

Paul Wendt

07-11-2009, 05:39 PM

quoting the fine print (#1 above)
> "Consider whether a player deserves a bonus for playing a position, or in an era, that’s underrepresented in the Hall’s membership."

FYI, this table shows the distribution we have named in the first five rounds. Some context is missing, of course: the distribution of Hall of Fame players, minus those whom you would relegate to the foyer.

Purgatory by debut decade (50 members thru round five)

1860s 70s 80s 90s 00s 10s 20s 30s 40s 50s 60s 70s 80s = debut decade

1 1 1 ; 3 Negro Leagues & pre
3 6 3 3 1 1 1 3 1 1 8 9 7 ; 47 major leagues & pre

fielding position (among 47 from the major leagues and prior)
pitcher
. . 1 . . . 1 1 . . . 1 . ; 4 pitcher
outfield
. 2 2 1 1 . . 1 1 . 1 4 1 ; 14 outfield
first
1 . . . . . . . . . . 1 3 ; 5 first
second
1 1 . . . . . . . . . 2 1 ; 5 second
short
. 1 . 1 . . . . . . . 1 1 ; 4 short
third
. 1 . 1 . 1 . 1 . 1 4 . 1 ; 10 third
catcher
1 1 . . . . . . . . 3 . . ; 5 catcher

1860s 70s 80s 90s 00s 10s 20s 30s 40s 50s 60s 70s 80s = debut decade

Columns represent debut decades from the 1860s (pre-1870) to the 1980s (post-1979).

Rows "below the line" represent primary fielding positions, covering only the 47 members from the major leagues and prior. The three Negro Leaguers in chronological order are shortstop Grant Johnson, shortstop Dobie Moore, and 3b-ss John Beckwith. Tommy Leach, Dick Allen, and Edgar Martinez are counted at thirdbase.

Tiboreau

07-11-2009, 07:00 PM

1. Y Alejandro Oms
2. Y Cal McVey
3. Y Lip Pike
4. Y Bobby Bonds
5. Y Billy Pierce
6. N Bob Elliott
7. N Willie Randolph
8. N Cupid Childs
9. N Luis Tiant
10. N Charley Jones
11. N Carl Mays
12. N Dave Parker
13. N Wilbur Cooper
14. N Larry Doyle
15. N Dan Quisenberry

1. Bret Saberhagen
2. Dick Lundy
3. Gavy Cravath
4. Dave Stieb
5. Reggie Smith
6. Quincy Trouppe
7. Bob Johnson

Any ideas on why WARP is so high on Saberhagen but WS isn't?

I assume it's more about WS systematically underrating post-Deadball era pitchers than any specific issue involving Saberhagen. Considering both James's cap on defensive WS & not adjusting for the greater demands on pitchers through time (IOW, the gradual drop in IP), Win Shares wildy overrates 19th century pitchers & underrates '20s era pitchers & beyond to a greater & greater degree until the present.
'80s pitchers cWS WS/sea top5 top3
Saberhagen 193 29.37 98 28 24 23
Cone 197 27.90 93 21 20 19
Hershiser 210 25.49 102 25 23 21
Gooden 187 25.30 95 33 18 17
Stieb 210 28.13 113 25 24 24
Looking at the 2nd tier pitchers of his era by WS shows 5 ballplayers within one season of each other in career value (well, 1 CYA season), with Saberhagen & Stieb at the top according to both rate & top 3 seasons. (Outside of Gooden's '85, which--according to WS--isn't as good as, say, Vic Willis's '99 & equal to his '01 & barely above his '06 seasons. Those were good years, but nowhere near Gooden's '85.) Saberhagen's top 5 consecutive peak is hurt by injuries & an odd alternation between good & bad years; I personally don't pay much attention too consecutive peak, but if I did I'd cut pitchers a bit of slack considering how tough pitching is on the body, particularly now.

There may be something else related to BP's DERA, but someone else would know better than I would about stuff like that.

Personally, I don't look at pWS at all, relying purely upon WARP & Joe Dimino's pitching data (which isn't available online).

Cougar

07-11-2009, 09:56 PM

1. Parker, Dave

2. Tiant, Luis

3. Doyle, Larry

4. Quisenberry, Dan

5. Mays, Carl

6. Elliott, Bob

7. Pierce, Billy

8. Cooper, Wilbur

9. Randolph, Willie

10. Bonds, Bobby

11. Pike, Lip

12. Childs, Cupid

13. Oms, Alejandro

14. McVey, Cal

15. Jones, Charley

Yes to all

Cougar

07-11-2009, 10:08 PM

1. Hodges, Gil

2. John, Tommy

3. Kaat, Jim

4. Oliva, Tony

5. Cravath, Gavy

6. Johnson, Bob

7. Smith, Lee

gman5431

07-13-2009, 09:28 AM

1 Dave Parker
2 Luis Tiant
3 Aljandro Oms
4 Wilbur Cooper
5 Willie Randolph
6 Bobby Bonds
7 Cupid Childs
8 Larry Doyle
9 Bob Elliott
10 Charley Jones
11 Carl Mays
12 Cal McVey
13 Billy Pierce
14 Lip Pike
15 Dan Quisenberry

No to all.

G Rizzle

gman5431

07-13-2009, 11:01 AM

1 Dick Redding
2 Gil Hodges
3 Dave Stieb
4 Tony Oliva
5 Jim Kaat
6 Tommy John
7 Gavvy Cravath

G Rizzle

Paul Wendt

07-13-2009, 06:00 PM

despite what I might have said in past polls its no to all.
It's permitted to go back and forth. That's what it takes for some to be elected, a coincidence of forth.

Any ideas on why WARP is so high on Saberhagen but WS isn't?
For one, WARP by Davenport thinks Saberhagen suffered with below-average team fielding. In my desktop table of career data for 848 pitchers, which includes several Advanced Pitching Statistics from the current edition of WARP, Saberhagen at DERA 3.49 ranks 38 to 40 with Vance and Oswalt ranks 38 to 40; that is top 5% and about half of those ahead are recent relief pitchers. On the ERA+ scale that is 129 and a big majority of pitchers have "DERA+" closer to 100 than ERA+; the contrary difference maker for Saberhagen is the much-below-average estimated team fielding.

Ranked by the estimated impact of team fielding relative to league average, as close as I can infer it from the published statistics, Saberhagen at -0.13 runs per nine ranks 651 of 848. That is in sharp contrast to the preceding generation of Royals pitchers. Dennis Leonard, Paul Splittorff, and Larry Gura are all in top 5% at ranks 17, 41, and 42 of 848.

WARNING: The top 5% in my dataset, or top 42, is full of pitchers who debuted in the 1870s to 1900s or in the 1960s/70s. There are only two exceptions, Johnny Murphy and Mort Cooper with 1930s debuts who rank 37 and 38, so the first 36 are all from these few decades.

The main point holds despite the warning. Among 87 pitchers with 1970s debuts Leonard-Splittorff-Gura rank 2-5-6 and Quisenberry 10 in estimated impact of team fielding! Saberhagen ranks 85 among 99 pitchers with 1980s debuts.

Most of Saberhagen's below-average estimated fielding support happened with the Royals; a little below average with the Mets and a lot above average with the Red Sox. FYI the published basis for these comments is essentially the difference between RAA and PRAA under Advanced Pitching Statistics Adjusted for Season. If you take a look (Saberhagen at BaseballProspectus (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/saberbr01.php)) you will find roughly this
estimate impact of team fielding, Saberhagen by team
-43 runs, 1700+ innings, KC
-8 runs, 500+ innings, NY
+13 runs, 400 innings, Boston

Cougar

07-17-2009, 02:30 PM

Bump.

This has become moribund. Come on, ladies and gentlemen, man up!

Freakshow

07-17-2009, 09:55 PM

1 CHILDS -Y
2 MCVEY -Y
3 PIKE -Y (No's below here)
4 RANDOLPH
5 JONES CH
6 OMS
7 Doyle L
8 PIERCE
9 Mays C
10 Parker D
11 Bonds Bo
12 Cooper Wi
13 Tiant
14 Elliott
15 Quisenberry

Runoff
1 Cravath
2 Lundy
3 Ryan J
4 Johnson B
5 Mullane
6 Smith R
7 Saberhagen

Freakshow

07-18-2009, 12:00 PM

For the next election, these are the ten players next in line for the runoff.

Concepcion
Garvey
Mattingly
Morris J
Munson
Newcombe
O'Doul
Rosen
Schang
Shocker

Remember, popularity among HOF voters, both real and imaginary electorates, is one of the criteria being considered.

Paul Wendt

07-19-2009, 03:13 PM

Final, round 6
1 McVey
2 Jones
3 Pike
4 Childs
------ Yes above, No below ------

5 Oms
6 Pierce
7 Tiant
8 Cooper
9 Mays
10 Quisenberry
11 Bonds
12 Parker
13 Doyle
14 Randolph
15 Elliott

Runoff for round 7
1 Cravath
2 Lundy
3 Long
4 Ryan
5 Saberhagen
6 R.Smith
7 L.Smith

Relatively high standing for Quisenberry and Smith reflects Cooperstown's welcome to ace relief pitchers, although to represent that welcome adequately they should be at the top of the two lists, the strongest candidates in these fields.

Blue marks the Baseball-Fever HOF members --not the Hall of Merit or Cooperstown Hall of Fame which I more commonly highlight. Members Tony Mullane and Dick Redding are in the runoff field.

Freakshow

07-20-2009, 04:55 PM

After ten days we've heard from about half our voters. Probably summer vacations and other busyness keeping others away. We're in no rush. :hyper:

I am a little surprised we don't have more voters for this project. To me, this project is the essence of this forum: drawing the in/out line for the HOF. Well, half of it anyway - the Hall of Cronies will give us the other half. :gt

If you've just been an observer of this project, well it ain't too late to jump in. We're approaching the end; maybe you see a couple of your favorites up there in the lead post that you want to try to help out. :think:

jjpm74

07-21-2009, 01:25 AM

I'd be surprised if we come to a consensus on any remaining candidates. Out of all of them, I think Dan Quisenberry deserves to be in the HOF based on 2 criteria:

1. Since the role of reliever has been established, the NBHoFM, HOM, BBFHOF and other projects have elected 2 pure relievers from the same generation in Goose Gossage and Rollie Fingers. Looking at relievers from the next 2 generations and the way in which the role of reliever has evolved, it seems reasonable to assume that 1-2 from each generation are worthy of serious HOF consideration. From Sutter's era, we have Bruce Sutter and Dan Quisenberry. Quiz was the better reliever, yet he is not in the HOF while Sutter is. Replace Sutter with Quiz and we have done our job (assuming Sutter is a mistake; assuming he isn't a mistake, it is still reasonable to have 2 relievers who are contemporaries of each other in the HOF). The generation after Sutter sees Lee Smith and ??? Of the current veteran relievers, we have Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman. Quiz seems to fit in nicely with the above mentioned relievers.

2. As mentioned in #1, all of Quisenberry's comparable relievers and/or contemporaries are either in the HOF or will be in the HOF when they retire. The biggest case against Quiz is the antiquated idea that there should be no pure relievers in the HOF. Relievers have become an essential part of the game and, like it or not, they are here to stay. It is hard to ignore guys like Goose Gossage, Mariano Rivera and Dan Quisenberry when talking about pitchers who belong in the NBHoFM.

Paul Wendt

07-21-2009, 12:29 PM

I'd be surprised if we come to a consensus on any remaining candidates.
I will be surprised if we don't, because it would be so remarkable to take 10,10,10,10,10,zero in six rounds.

Of course, the extended moment between rounds is the natural time for some rethinking. ("despite what I might have said in past polls its no to all." -PVNICK) It's also when some participants may try to specify about fifty Hall of Fame members whom they would displace in this shadow exercise. I tried it and I didn't roll to fifty, that's for sure.

Fielding Marshall

07-24-2009, 12:23 PM

1. Cupid Childs Y
2. Bob Elliott Y
3. Larry Doyle Y
4. Charley Jones Y
5. Lip Pike Y
6. Willie Randolph Y
7. Dan Quisenberry Y
8. Billy Pierce Y
9. Cal McVey Y
10. Alejandro Oms N
11. Bobby Bonds N
12. Wilbur Cooper N
13. Luis Tiant N
-------------------------------Personal HOF Line-------------------------
14. Carl Mays N
15. Dave Parker N

I'm finding ranking guys like Pike, McVey, and Oms a beast, due to the uncertainty about differing environments and differing season lengths. I ended up drawing the line between McVey and Oms, but I could very easily change my mind in a future election.

As some have already pointed out, we're starting to scrape the bottom of the barrel. I notice I'm giving more "Yes" votes than most of you, but given the available candidates I see, I don't see a lot of "Yes" votes in the coming elections.

1. Bret Saberhagen
2. Dave Stieb
3. Wally Berger
4. Bob Johnson
5. Tommy Bridges
6. Tony Oliva
7. Tony Mullane

Freakshow

07-27-2009, 08:26 AM

The biggest problem I have with Cravath is that he really only seemed to succeed in two parks good for an inside out swing: the Baker Bowl and the Minneapolis Millers' park (Nicollette?). It's great he could exploit something the park gave him, but I want a great to be more than a one trick pony. I can't shake that image from Gavvy.That's a judgment based on ability, rather than value. Me, I care about value. If Cravath was able to exploit his home parks more than others could, that's value.

In any case, your premise is he was only good because of his home parks. We don't know this, unless you have access to his home/road splits. Which are not available, AFAIK.

Paul Wendt

07-27-2009, 10:52 AM

Above I added numerals and the N word (No), removed the construction sign. So it's a valid ballot. I might add some Yes next round, preferably after some progress privately listing No for current Hall of Fame players.

Billy Pierce doesn't seem that good to me (#6, best of the pitchers) but there are so few "good looking" pitchers from the 1940s and 1950s, so many from some other times.

Captain Cold Nose

07-27-2009, 01:26 PM

1. Carl Mays
2. Luis Tiant
3. Charley Jones
4. Larry Doyle
5. Lip Pike
6. Cupid Childs
7. Dave Parker
8. Dan Quisenberry
9. Billy Pierce
10. Cal McVey
11. Alejandro Oms
12. Wilbur Cooper
13. Bobby Bonds
14. Bob Elliott
15. Willie Randolph

1. Pete Browning
2. Dick Redding
3. Jimmy Ryan
4. Bob Johnson
5. Herman Long
6. Quincy Trouppe
7. Lee Smith

Brad Harris

07-27-2009, 02:39 PM

Ballot
1. Mays
2. Cooper
3. Oms
4. Quisenberry
5. Doyle
6. Parker
7. Childs
8. Bonds
9. Pierce
10. Tiant
11. Jones
12. Elliott
13. Pike
14. McVey
15. Randolph

ALL are "Yes" votes

Run Off
1. Trouppe
2. Stephens
3. Lundy
4. Berger
5. Mullane
6. Redding
7. Cravath

Freakshow

07-27-2009, 02:42 PM

1. Carl Mays
2. Luis Tiant
3. Charley Jones
4. Larry Doyle
5. Lip Pike
6. Cupid Childs
7. Dave Parker
8. Dan Quisenberry
9. Billy Pierce
10. Cal McVey
11. Alejandro Oms
12. Wilbur Cooper
13. Bobby Bonds
14. Bob Elliott
15. Willie Randolph
Thanks for the ballot. :thumbsup:

Are there any Yesses here? All No's?

Paul Wendt

07-27-2009, 03:20 PM

Above I added numerals and the N word (No), removed the construction sign. So it's a valid ballot. I might add some Yes next round, preferably after some progress privately listing No for current Hall of Fame players.

quoting the introduction
>>
In practice, many of us employ a “tolerance zone”, extending our range of Yeses somewhat beyond our personal 231 player queue, thus acknowledging that a Gray Area exists.

From everything I have seen, there are at least 35 candidates for the HOF, and perhaps more than 60, who have a good case for being ranked as one of the top 231 eligible players. ...
<<

I have been thinking that a No list of 30 members and a Yes list of 50 nonmembers together imply 40 in the grey area. Oops. It's more complicated and those two counts probably imply more than 40 in the grey. How many members would be the candidates if I must extend that No list from 30 to 50, to match the Yes? That's only one of the questions that must be answered in order to count or estimate the grey.

>>
Try to imagine this as a final hearing on these candidates, to accept or reject them forever,
<<

I can't do it. I know too much.
:lookitup

>>
Go beyond the numbers and look for contributions in the minor leagues or non-playing or anecdotal.
<<

easy to forget.
What about contributions, mainly as players, to entertainment value rather than wins?

Ace Venom

07-27-2009, 04:30 PM

1. Alejandro Oms Y
2. Larry Doyle Y
3. Dave Parker Y
4. Bobby Bonds Y
5. Carl Mays Y
6. Charley Jones Y
7. Dan Quisenberry Y
8. Luis Tiant N
9. Wilbur Cooper N
10. Willie Randolph N
11. Cupid Childs N
12. Cal McVey N
13. Bob Elliot N
14. Billy Pierce N
15. Lip Pike N

Runoff
1. Lee Smith
2. Gil Hodges
3. Tommy John
4. Jim Kaat
5. Wally Berger
6. Dick Redding
7. Dick Lundy

Captain Cold Nose

07-28-2009, 05:51 AM

Thanks for the ballot. :thumbsup:

Are there any Yesses here? All No's?

Whoops. Cooper is my cutoff for yes. The last three are all no.

Freakshow

07-29-2009, 10:50 PM

Before we wrap up this round here's one last call for ballots. We're still hoping to hear from these voters:

AstrosFan
Domenic
Sockeye
STLCards2
Windy City Fan

Freakshow

08-03-2009, 10:23 AM

Belonging in the HOF Pts Ave 1st No's
51 Cupid Childs 271 6.4 2 5
52 Lip Pike 249 8.3 0 4
Carried over to next election
Alejandro Oms 278 5.8 2 6 x1
Larry Doyle 265 6.9 0 6 x2
Dave Parker 261 7.3 2 7 x2
Charley Jones 255 7.8 0 6 x1
Willie Randolph 250 8.2 1 9 x2
Wilbur Cooper 248 8.3 0 8 x1
Bobby Bonds 247 8.4 0 8 x1
(Bottom five)
Dan Quisenberry 243 8.8 1 5
Luis Tiant 243 8.8 0 9 x1
Bob Elliott 240 9.0 0 9 x1
Cal McVey 238 9.2 1 5
Billy Pierce 231 9.8 0 7 x1
Third time rejected
Carl Mays 261 7.3 3 7 x3

Runoff Winners
Dick Lundy 92 7
Dick Redding 82 7
Bob Johnson 81 7
Carried over to next runoff
Gavvy Cravath 72 6
Quincy Trouppe 62 5
Wally Berger 60 5
Herman Long 56 5
Jimmy Ryan 51 4
Bret Saberhagen 50 4
Dave Stieb 49 4
Reggie Smith 45 4
Tony Oliva 43 4
Gil Hodges 43 3
Tony Mullane 42 4
Lee Smith 42 4
Tommy John 37 3
Jim Kaat 36 3
Vern Stephens 28 2
Tommy Bridges 22 2
Pete Browning 15 1
The electorate has spoken, choosing 19th century stars Cupid Childs and Lip Pike to dwell in HOF purgatory. This brings the total to 52 players that the HOF should elect.

The leading vote-getter was actually Alejandro Oms, but only half the electorate thought he belongs in the Hall; in this project a player needs support from a majority of voters. Dan Quisenberry and Cal McVey had support from a majority of voters, but their overall support was so weak they finished out of the top ten in this election. They'll get another shot on the next ballot.

Carl Mays was the first to fall victim to this project's "Three strikes, yer out!" rule. Despite his 4th place finish in the balloting he failed to gain support from a majority of the voters for the third time. This eliminates him from future ballots and makes him the inaugural member of the Hall of Very Good. In the next election Doyle, Parker and Randolph face the blade.

Our next ballot will include these 15 candidates: Bonds, Cooper, Doyle, Elliott, Johnson, Jones, Lundy, McVey, Oms, Parker, Pierce, Quisenberry, Randolph, Redding and Tiant. The thread will be up soon.