LaMarr Hoyt what if?

[bambambaseball]

LaMarr Hoyt (http://www.nytimes.com/1987/12/07/sports/hoyt-arrested-on-drug-charges.html) was an outstanding pitcher in his prime. He led the league in wins in 1982 and 1983, was an all star in 1985 and even won the MVP of that game, won the cy young in 1983, but was washed up by 31 years old and barely scraped together 8 seasons. Hoyt was a tremendous talent who had a major drug problem. This problem got in the way of his career. My question is if folks think he was on a HOF path before his collapse? Here are his stats:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hoytla01.shtml

Also, who are some other players who this happened to? Darryl Strawberry and Doc Gooden are 2 I can think of but there were also others.

[jalbright]

As Hoyt never had a ERA+ over 115 in any season, I wouldn't say he'd established that he was on a HOF arc. Maybe, without addiction, he might have reached that level, but that's not the question posed.

Darryl Strawberry certainly looks like a candidate in 1988, and really even through 1991 looks pretty good. After that, he dropped out of the discussion, so his addiction certainly could have derailed him.

Gooden, it's hard to say whether his arm was the same after all those innings at a young age in 1985--and if it wasn't, the addiction, while certainly a hindrance, wasn't the main cause his path to the HOF disappeared.

[dgarza]

HOF path? No.

He got late start : 25 in his 1st full MLB season.
He had only 74 Wins before his 30s.

Hoyt had good control.
Starters 1981-1985 (600+ IPs)

Cnt Player WHIP IP From To
+----+-----------------+-----+------+----+----+
1 Mario Soto 1.121 1200.1 1981 1985
2 La Marr Hoyt 1.146 1037 1981 1985
3 Dave Stieb 1.151 1282 1981 1985
4 Bert Blyleven 1.181 874.2 1981 1985
5 Scott Sanderson 1.181 704.1 1981 1985
6 Don Sutton 1.187 1067.1 1981 1985
7 Ron Guidry 1.191 1054 1981 1985
8 Fernando Valenzue 1.192 1267.2 1981 1985
9 Joaquin Andujar 1.199 1100.2 1981 1985
10 Jerry Reuss 1.200 942.1 1981 1985


But I have a hard time calling him "outstanding". His Career ERA+ was always under 110.
He was not quite Soto.

He won the CY is 1983, but Dotson or Stieb would probably have been better picks that year.
He had above average win support in 1982 & 1983.

He did get caught up in legal matters involving drugs, but that did not interrupt an outstanding career; it interrupted an OK/good career. He never showed the same Major League promise that Gooden and Strawberry showed.

[NJYankeeFan]

Agree with degarza, he got a late start and only had two good seasons.

Lots of pitchers could qualify for that. If those two years were age 23 & 24, instead of 27 & 28 and then he blew up, well we could at least consider it.

Gooden and Strawberry definitely were on pace and then blew it.

Drug wise can't really think of who blew it. Definitely have been some famous misses, from can't miss guys.

One guy that thinking back could have had a Hall of Fame career from that era but his manager blew it, was Dave Righetti. But that's off topic.

[brett]

Agree with degarza, he got a late start and only had two good seasons.

Lots of pitchers could qualify for that. If those two years were age 23 & 24, instead of 27 & 28 and then he blew up, well we could at least consider it.

Gooden and Strawberry definitely were on pace and then blew it.

Drug wise can't really think of who blew it. Definitely have been some famous misses, from can't miss guys.


Perhaps Vida Blue? Not sure when his drug stuff started.

Also perhaps John Mayberry. He had a 142 OPS+ through 688 games, and 152 between the ages of 23-26.

I think he started using something in '76 and the Royals got rid of him after '77. There were rumors that he was stoned in the LCS (he made errors in game 3 and 4).

[JDD]

Hoyt was a little before his time. His WHIP was great before anyone was using that stat. At the time all we had was "control" and "that dude does not give up very many walks...."

All this at a time when wins and strikeouts were still sexy.

[jjpm74]

There have been literally 100s of players throughout baseball history who had 1 good year but are nowhere near a serious candidate for the NBHoFM. What makes Hoyt so special?

[stevebogus]

I enjoyed watching LaMarr Hoyt pitch. But I don't think he was going to have a long career even if he stayed clean and managed his weight better.

Hoyt needed to keep the ball in the park and he needed a good defense behind him. He couldn't blow the ball past hitters and his breaking pitches were just OK. I remember his breaking stuff was "flat", having more horizontal movement than vertical. His best pitch was probably his fastball. It was only upper 80s or 90-ish but it had good movement. He'd start it over the middle of the plate and it would look like a fat pitch to the batter, but it would tail and end up off the corner. Or he'd start it way off the plate and the movement would bring it back over the corner, like a backdoor breaking pitch.

Hoyt was a fun pitcher to watch because he worked fast and threw strikes. He strongly believed in getting ahead in the count and he wasn't afraid to challenge hitters. Rich Dotson won 22 games in the same season Hoyt won 24 but they were polar opposites in their approach. Dotson was a nibbler, a guy who was always trying to get the batter to swing at a bad pitch. I swear it seemed he went entire games going 2-and-0 to everyone. LaMarr would be 0-2 or 1-2, getting the ball and throwing it. He threw so many strikes that batters came up hacking at the first pitch, figuring that if they took it they would be behind in the count. And he won games in bunches. Hoyt had a 14-win streak in 1981-82 (last 5 decisions of '81 and 9 more are the start of '82) that began when he was working out of the bullpen and carried over to when he went into the starting rotation. In 1983 he won 13 in a row to close the season (with 1 no-decision which the Sox ended up winning) and began 1984 with 2 more for a 15-win streak. And in 1985 put together a streak of 11 with the Padres.

The single best indicator of career length for a pitcher is strikeout rate, and LaMarr didn't strike out lots of batters. If you don't have a high strikeout rate it helps to be an extreme groundball pitcher or lefthanded. Hoyt, a righty, wasn't really a groundball pitcher either. His attitude was "I'm gonna throw strikes and you're going to have to swing the bat to beat me". But when he couldn't put the ball where he wanted he got hit hard. His stuff just wasn't good enough to overcome anything less than excellent control.

I just don't see Hoyt remaining effective long enough to compile Hall of Fame numbers. He would need, at a minimum, Catfish Hunter type numbers. But Catfish pitched for better teams, had 5 consecutive 20-win seasons, led in ERA once, and pitched in several World Series. His 224-166 record alone probably wouldn't have been enough without the WS and all those 20-win seasons. Hoyt was a long way away from those numbers.