HOF Mistakes Round 23

[AstrosFan]

We all have our own definition of what makes a Hall of Famer. And many of us are simply appalled at what we see as terrible selections. I would like to start voting on the mistakes of the Hall of Fame.


Please Read These Rules Before Making Your Selections:


1. This is players only, which means players are to be judged on their playing career first. A player may receive a boost from a voter for other activities (managing, scouting, etc.), but those are only secondary considerations. But of course, do not judge a player solely by his numbers.

2. There are now 229 players in the Hall. I plan on putting a ballot of 25 each round, plus a none of the above option. You may vote for 0-15 players. If you think a player is close, but doesn't belong, and you have room on your ballot, check him as a mistake. A player needs to get 60+% of the vote to be dubbed a mistake. Since there will be much disagreement on who is a mistake, there is no need to limit yourself to the Rube Marquards and George Kellys of the Hall. Again, DO NOT JUST VOTE FOR THE BAD PICKS. VOTE FOR ANYONE YOU PERSONALLY WOULD NOT ELECT TO THE HALL.

3. Please do not be shy. In participating in this project, no one is necessarily advocating the removal of anyone from the Hall. It is just a way to see who we would identify as mistakes made by the various election committees.

4. All players are eligible. Do your best when it comes to players you may have a hard time judging, like Negro Leaguers and 19th century players. You don't have to read an encyclopedia, but at least some research should help.

5. If a player receives less than 5% of the vote as a mistake, he becomes permanently ineligible. No one wants to belabor the point that Willie Mays is not a Hall of Fame mistake.

6. A player must have more than one vote, must have crossed the 20% threshold by his fourth try, and the 50% threshold by his 10th try, else he is dropped, unless he has been gaining noticeable momentum. What constitutes noticeable will be up to me, though I intend to do my best to define it in a way that will appease as many as I can. Think Jim Rice or Bert Blyleven in the real HOF voting.

7. At some point, we will reach a place where we just aren't going to identify any more mistakes. At that point, the project will shut down, and I will list the players alphabetically, and include some statistics for everyone's benefit.

8. Please be careful when voting. I do not have the power to edit ballots, and I do not wish to bother the mods constantly to ask them if they can change things. Because of this, ballots will not be changed, except in the case of honest mistakes. Please contact a mod about this if it happens, but please be very careful when voting, so the moderators do not have to be bothered more than necessary.

9. Please be respectful of other people's choices. Disagreement is natural, but calling those with a different viewpoint narrowminded, ignorant, etc. is unnecessary, and more likely than not untrue.

10. This is probably obvious, but the players are listed alphabetically.

11. Please post your ballot in the thread.

12. Voting is open for one week.

Have fun.


Round 1 (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=85732)

Round 2 (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=85918)

Round 3 (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=86180)

Round 4 (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=86423)

Round 5 (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=86826)

Round 6 (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=87111)

Round 7 (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=87330)

Round 8 (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=87606)

Round 9 (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=87839)

Round 10 (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=88081)

Round 11 (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=88343)

Round 12 (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=88576)

Round 13 (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=88817)

Round 14 (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=89069)

Round 15 (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=89333)

Round 16 (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=89769)

Round 17 (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=89961)

Round 18 (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=90163)

Round 19 (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=90357)

Round 20 (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=90533)

Round 21 (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=90796)

Round 22 (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=91169)

Voters by Round

Round 1 - 31
Round 2 - 22
Round 3 - 28
Round 4 - 25
Round 5 - 23
Round 6 - 22
Round 7 - 23
Round 8 - 25
Round 9 - 20
Round 10 - 16
Round 11 - 21
Round 12 - 17
Round 13 - 17
Round 14 - 17
Round 15 - 16
Round 16 - 19
Round 17 - 18
Round 18 - 20
Round 19 - 16
Round 20 - 22
Round 21 - 23
Round 22 - 20

Mistakes (36)

Dave Bancroft (http://www.baseball-reference.com/b/bancrda01.shtml), SS, 1915-30

Chief Bender (http://www.baseball-reference.com/b/bendech01.shtml), SP, 1903-17, 1925

Jim Bottomley (http://www.baseball-reference.com/b/bottoji01.shtml), 1B, 1922-37

Jack Chesbro (http://www.baseball-reference.com/c/chesbja01.shtml), SP, 1899-1909

Earle Combs (http://www.baseball-reference.com/c/combsea01.shtml), CF, 1924-35

Candy Cummings (http://www.baseball-reference.com/c/cummica01.shtml), SP, 1872-77

Kiki Cuyler (http://www.baseball-reference.com/c/cuyleki01.shtml), RF, 1921-38

Johnny Evers (http://www.baseball-reference.com/e/eversjo01.shtml), 2B, 1902-17, 1922, 1929

Rick Ferrell (http://www.baseball-reference.com/f/ferreri01.shtml), C, 1929-45, 1947

Chick Hafey (http://www.baseball-reference.com/h/hafeych01.shtml), LF, 1924-35, 1937

Jesse Haines (http://www.baseball-reference.com/h/haineje01.shtml), SP, 1918, 1920-37

Harry Hooper (http://www.baseball-reference.com/h/hoopeha01.shtml), RF, 1909-25

Waite Hoyt (http://www.baseball-reference.com/h/hoytwa01.shtml), SP, 1918-38

Catfish Hunter (http://www.baseball-reference.com/h/hunteca01.shtml), SP, 1965-79

Travis Jackson (http://www.baseball-reference.com/j/jackstr01.shtml), SS, 1922-36

Judy Johnson (http://bioproj.sabr.org/bioproj.cfm?a=v&v=l&pid=7030&bid=693), 3B, 1918-37

George Kell (http://www.baseball-reference.com/k/kellge01.shtml), 3B, 1943-57

George Kelly (http://www.baseball-reference.com/k/kellyge01.shtml), 1B, 1915-17, 1919-30, 1932

Chuck Klein (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kleinch01.shtml?redir), RF, 1928-44

Tony Lazzeri (http://www.baseball-reference.com/l/lazzeto01.shtml), 2B, 1926-39

Freddie Lindstrom (http://www.baseball-reference.com/l/lindsfr01.shtml), 3B, 1924-36

Ernie Lombardi (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lombaer01.shtml), C, 1931-47

Heinie Manush (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/manushe01.shtml), RF, 1923-39

Rube Marquard (http://www.baseball-reference.com/m/marquru01.shtml), SP, 1908-25

Bill Mazeroski (http://www.baseball-reference.com/m/mazerbi01.shtml), 2B, 1956-72

Tommy McCarthy (http://www.baseball-reference.com/m/mccarto01.shtml), RF, 1884-96

Herb Pennock (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pennohe01.shtml?redir), SP, 1912-17, 1919-34

Jim Rice (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/riceji01.shtml), LF, 1974-89

Phil Rizzuto (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rizzuph01.shtml), SS, 1941-42, 1946-56

Ray Schalk (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/schalra01.shtml?redir), C, 1912-29

Red Schoendienst (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/schoere01.shtml), 2B, 1945-63

Bruce Sutter (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/suttebr01.shtml), RP, 1976-86, 1988

Joe Tinker (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/tinkejo01.shtml), SS, 1902-16

Lloyd Waner (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wanerll01.shtml), CF, 1927-42, 1944-45

Mickey Welch (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/welchmi01.shtml), SP, 1880-92

Ross Youngs (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/y/youngro01.shtml), RF, 1917-26

[Jsquared83]

Perez
Wilson

[SABR Matt]

Everyone but Wynn and Rice.

[AstrosFan]

-Everyone.

[jalbright]

Taylor is the only one I voted for.

[jjpm74]

Just Ben Taylor due to the discussion about him in the previous round.

[PVNICK]

Hack Wilson

[jjpm74]

Barring someone changing their mind, it looks like we have our hall of mistakes which seems like a good list. I was wondering if there might be a follow up ranking project? It'd be interesting to see who the worst mistakes turn out to be and who end up being toward the bottom of the mistake list.

Of the entire list, the only players I would actually vote for in a HOF project are Candy Cummings (as a pioneer/contributor not as a player), Phil Rizzuto (depending on the project) and possibly Bruce Sutter.

[Freakshow]

Barring someone changing their mind, it looks like we have our hall of mistakes which seems like a good list. I was wondering if there might be a follow up ranking project? It'd be interesting to see who the worst mistakes turn out to be and who end up being toward the bottom of the mistake list.I thought about doing a complementary project to the Hall of Purgatory - The Hall of Cronyism, or something like that. It would be run with the same format: a ranking together with an up/down vote. However, I likely won't get around to it until early next year. Perhaps somebody else will handle a followup ranking project. :candle:

[AstrosFan]

Barring someone changing their mind, it looks like we have our hall of mistakes which seems like a good list. I was wondering if there might be a follow up ranking project? It'd be interesting to see who the worst mistakes turn out to be and who end up being toward the bottom of the mistake list.

Of the entire list, the only players I would actually vote for in a HOF project are Candy Cummings (as a pioneer/contributor not as a player), Phil Rizzuto (depending on the project) and possibly Bruce Sutter.

It's possible Taylor will make it, but that's likely to be it. I'll see the project through anyway.

Once we do get our Hall of Fame mistakes list fully completed, I think I'll take the list of players in the actual Hall, and replace them with the top players up through the amount of mistakes from the HOF Purgatory list, just to see what that Hall would look like.

[jjpm74]

I thought about doing a complementary project to the Hall of Purgatory - The Hall of Cronyism, or something like that. It would be run with the same format: a ranking together with an up/down vote. However, I likely won't get around to it until early next year. Perhaps somebody else will handle a followup ranking project. :candle:

That sounds like a fun project to partake in when the MLB season ends. I'm looking forward to it.

[AstrosFan]

I've been working with position adjusted batting the past couple of days. Based on his pitching, I wouldn't vote Early Wynn into the Hall, and that's even if he was a slightly above average hitter relative to pitchers. But he's far above average. Compared to other pitchers - starting pitchers, actually - he's one of the greatest of all time. My gut was wrong. That's all there is to it. As a complete player, he deserves to be in.

[AstrosFan]

When I next get the chance, which won't be for a couple of days, I'm tallying up the totals. It's been beyond the seven days I set for the poll, however, for some reason, the time limit I set failed to work.

[STLCards2]

I've been working with position adjusted batting the past couple of days. Based on his pitching, I wouldn't vote Early Wynn into the Hall, and that's even if he was a slightly above average hitter relative to pitchers. But he's far above average. Compared to other pitchers - starting pitchers, actually - he's one of the greatest of all time. My gut was wrong. That's all there is to it. As a complete player, he deserves to be in.

Hooray!:highfive: I always knew you would come around!

[Paul Wendt]

Based on his pitching, I wouldn't vote Early Wynn into the Hall, and that's even if he was a slightly above average hitter relative to pitchers. But he's far above average. Compared to other pitchers - starting pitchers, actually - he's one of the greatest of all time.
If so then OPS+ is extremely biased against him.

Early Wynn made his major league debut in 1939 and batted OPS+ 54 in 1903 plate appearances.

My desktop table of career data for major league pitchers includes 99 who debuted during the 1930s and 1940s. Among them Wynn ranks 8 by OPS+ and stands 33 points above the median, OPS+ 21. That is very good but not among the best of all time. Among the 99 he is far behind the four leaders (average 84: Schoolboy Rowe 87, Don Newcombe 85, Bob Lemon 82, Jim Tobin 82).

Does your analysis show, contrary to OPS+, that Wynn was roughly their equal as a batter?

For the next 20 years, debuts in the 1950s and 1960s, my table includes 111 pitchers with at least 500 plate appearances, a threshold that excludes career relief pitchers and some starters who worked primarily with a DH. The leading Hall of Fame pitchers by OPS+, Jim Hunter (52) and Bob Gibson (49), rank 5 and 8 among the 111. Compared with Wynn they are further above median, OPS+ 8, and closer to the four leaders (average 70: Don Larsen 82, Earl Wilson 76, Gary Peters 70, Vern Law 53).

[SABR Matt]

Early Wynn's batting is a small positive contributor...I think we can go too far overestimating the value of 100 PA a year of slightly better than pitching average hitting...PCA requires all batters to be held to the same standard, which means that if you're a normal hitting pitcher, you're going to be losing value relative ot the zero-value margin on a consistent basis with the bat...very few pitchers have hit well enough to be above the zero-value batting margin, Early Wynn was indeed among those few, with a career offensive win total of 2.42...the typical pitcher with as many plate appearances as win would have been worth -8 wins (rounded to the nearest win)...all of that hitting has the equivalent value of a little more than one of his best pitching seasons. That's not something you completely dismiss, but don't make it out to be a gigantic game-changer.

[bambambaseball]

Is everyone just gonna vote in al the rest of the guys on this balott? Ben Tayler at 60% = :eek:

[AstrosFan]

If so then OPS+ is extremely biased against him.

Early Wynn made his major league debut in 1939 and batted OPS+ 54 in 1903 plate appearances.

It's career value, I admit. Wynn would drop in rate stats. How much, I don't know. But he had something like a 24 year career with what was, overall, productive offense, for a pitcher anyway. I suppose I should have mentioned this earlier, because it is a limited definition of "one of the greatest ever," and deceiving to the reader.

***

Matt, I always separate position players and pitchers in any rankings I attempt. So I compare a pitcher's offense to other pitchers. The impact of Wynn's offense, in this regard, gets him up above the Hall level that I feel he doesn't quite merit solely as a pitcher. A normalized wins-based analysis like PCA could put position players and pitchers on the same scale, I suppose, but I just don't feel comfortable doing so.

[AstrosFan]

First Last Votes Possible Pct Mistake? Stay
Tony Perez 9 23 39.13% N N
Sam Rice 9 23 39.13% N Y
Ben Taylor 14 23 60.87% Y N
Bobby Wallace 9 23 39.13% N Y
Vic Willis 8 23 34.78% N Y
Hack Wilson 10 23 43.48% N Y
Early Wynn 1 23 4.35% N N

Taylor makes the list. Wynn is off consideration for too few votes. Perez is off because he has been on for ten rounds. I'll be back later to put the next round up.

[Paul Wendt]

PCA requires all batters to be held to the same standard, which means that if you're a normal hitting pitcher, you're going to be losing value relative ot the zero-value margin on a consistent basis with the bat...very few pitchers have hit well enough to be above the zero-value batting margin

I believe this method underrates the pitchers. I'm not sure where it misplaces that value.

Briefly, there is some value in a marginal pitcher who works six innings and takes two turns at bat, rather than be replaced by a marginal bench and marginal bullpen player at every turn.

The margin is narrow. No team has a staff full of marginal pitchers and a bench full of marginal batters.

Even if it did --that is, strictly within the marginal world-- the staff and the bench are limited in size, so it would not make sense at every turn to bat for the marginal pitcher of the moment (who is a typical submarginal batter). That would demand five pitching changes in some games, four in most games, and it would use the same number of bench players for this purpose alone.

Does anyone's model, theoretical or empirically estimated, account for the cost of exhausting the bullpen and bench players --some cost even if they are all precisely marginal in pitching quality or batting quality respectively.

There are other complications, still in the marginal world.

Marginal bench players vary in the batting and fielding components of their value. Replacing the marginal pitchers at every batting turn would "walk downstairs" during every game toward using as pinch-hitters the skillful utility infielders and the backup catchers, who are marginal players overall but submarginal batters.

Marginal pitchers also vary in some respects. Some are better against left-hand batters and submarginal against right-hand batters. Some are marginal under now-typical patterns of use: one rest day in three for some, five rest days for others, etc. Replacing the pitcher at every turn of the batting order would demand using some overall marginal pitchers in submarginal ways.