1950 Best of Baseball Election [Archive]

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jalbright

06-20-2009, 11:05 AM

This is our fifteenth election in this project. The entire rules follow.

This election will run through 11:59:59 PM EDT July 3, 2009.

The prior election, and the ballots of the 1949 voters, are in this thread (http://baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=90821)

jalbright

06-20-2009, 11:06 AM

Rules

1) All BBF users in good standing may participate. However, if there is more than one vote being cast from any one computer or IP, it must be cleared in advance. Should there be unannounced multiple votes from the same IP, I will investigate the circumstances, and all user names involved may be barred from this project as a result, and all but one of the multiple usernames permanently banned from the site. I only anticipate exceptions for family members living in the same home, but I will entertain requests on other bases. Please note that I and the other mods who participate in the project have the capability of determining the IP from which posts come, and I for one intend to monitor same. I have had to deal with a single user manipulating a project with multiple votes, and I don't intend to repeat the experience.

2) Elections will require a 10 voter quorum. If we do not get ten voters and there are candidate(s) who would be elected no matter what the voters needed to make a quorum did, those candidate(s) will be inducted. Otherwise, no one will be inducted. Further, if we fail to meet a quorum in two of any four consecutive elections, the project will end. If, for instance, we're doing fine on the player end but not the contributor end, I would drop the contributor end under this rule.

3) We will start in 1936, just as Cooperstown did. For the first election (1936), voters will rank their top 20, taking 10. After that we will go to having voters rank their top 12 players. Points awarded 12-11-10, etc. We will take the top five through 1940, then top three players per year elected until 2010, then two per year. If a voter does not number his selections, I will try to get him/her to do so. If they do not do so before the end of the election period, I may in my sole discretion invalidate the ballot. I have included this provision in order to ease the process of recording the votes. On another point, I know, the 1936 backlog is huge--but that was a historical issue they couldn't avoid, so neither will we.

4) We will also have a contributor ballot, which will elect one a year through 1985, then one every three (3) years. Contributors will be ranked 1 through 5, with points awarded 5-4-3-2-1. Voters may choose to participate in either one of the ballots or both.

5) It is permissible to vote for a candidate on both the contributor and player lists.

6) You are allowed to change your ballot at any time the ballot is open. However, if you change your ballot, you've got to notify me (jalbright) by PM or by a new post in the voting thread, or the changes likely will not be registered.

7) Players are eligible at the later of age 45 or the first year thereafter in which the player does not play. If the birthdate is not known, add five years to the first time the player misses a season and has less than 10 games the next season. There is an exception for early death, in which case the year of death plus two will be used if that yields an earlier date.

8) Contributors become eligible at age 65 or in the year of death plus two. whichever comes first.

9) Each election will run for approximately two weeks unless expressly altered by the project manager, contributors and players done simultaneously.

10) No one is excluded from being a candidate, regardless of the league they played in, except those elected in either the contributor or player ballots. At that point, they are removed from further consideration. If there are players who returned to the Negro Leagues or Japan after going to the majors, the departure from the majors will be their career end date for purposes of this project.

11) The standard for including a player on one's ballot is that the player must in the voter's opinion be among the very best eligible players (preferably the number voted on, but if a voter wishes to support someone they feel is 15th in a 12 person ballot instead of one of the top 12, it's too close for anyone to reasonably object. On the other hand, supporting the 25th best eligible candidate on a 12 person ballot is probably beyond the pale). I reserve the power to invalidate ballots which I do not feel are a reasonably knowledgeable, good faith effort to rank the players. One issue I am quite concerned about is that I do not want to see what clearly appear to be attempts to manipulate the ballot so as to elect a candidate. In isolation, I probably could live with this, but if it became a widely used tactic, the project would devolve into something I have no desire to be associated with. Moreover, I think that this position asks everyone else to cast legitimate votes so that you can manipulate the system to favor your pet candidates. I cannot accept that, as it strikes me as unfair to other voters. For example, you can't expect to favor even a legitimate HOF candidate like Bill Dahlen over Babe Ruth to get Dahlen elected without being asked to provide a reasonable justification for ranking Dahlen over Ruth. If you can provide a reasonable justification in that scenario, the ballot will stand. If not, you will be asked to make a change. Certainly, a reasonable justification does not indicate in essence simply that you want Dahlen elected. Furthermore, if I invalidate multiple ballots by the same individual as failing to meet this rule, that individual will forever lose the right to have his/her ballots counted. Voters are encouraged to consider character, sportsmanship, and compliance with the rules and spirit of baseball in their rankings of players.

12) I will post lists of eligible players and contributors before each election. If you have a question about the eligibility of a candidate, please ask. I will provide a list of future eligibility dates as well.

13) My eligibility lists come from all persons in the BBF HOF, BBTF Hall of Merit, and Cooperstown, plus all persons getting a vote in a BBF HOF election in the past year and a half or in a BBWAA election. This is a relatively comprehensive list, and thus I must request that if you want another candidate included, you provide some justification for why said candidate is worthy of getting a vote in this project. The main area I think this might come into play is if a voter supports a person who was eligible for the final selections from the recent pre WWII or Negro League committees but not on my master list. That fact alone would serve as ample justification for putting said candidate on the list. We may learn more about Cuban ball or what have you and thus include others after a case is made for them, however. The contributor list is undoubtedly not as comprehensive, and this fact will be taken into consideration.

14) Other than the sportsmanship and character issues, players are to be evaluated solely upon their play. I would prefer that if a player is qualified by his play standing alone that he be elected on that basis. However, a candidate may only be elected either as a contributor or a player, but not both. Contributors are the area where the entire body of work during his career in the sport, including his play, managing, scouting, executive, writing, broadcasting or other work in the sport is relevant. Contributors are to be ranked based on who the voter thinks is most worthy of induction into the Contributor group in this project.

15) Any ballot with two (2) or more spots unfilled with eligible candidates is invalid. In the event of the listing of ineligible names, I will try to notify the voter so that he/she can correct the ballot before the end of the voting period. If the change is made timely, it will count. If not, and there are two or more invalid names, the ballot will not be considered valid. If there is only one, the ineligible name will be stricken and all names after it on the affected ballot will be moved up one spot.

16) Any players listed beyond the 12th place for any ballot but the first (in which case it is 20th place) will be ignored. If more than one person is listed as tied for the last available place and the ballot is oversize, all names will be dropped, which may lead to the invalidation of the ballot.

17) Ties are not permitted in ballot listings. I reserve the right to invalidate ballots for use of ties in the rankings, be it within a single ballot or over the course of several ballots. If the voter does not correct such a listing voluntarily, except in the case of an oversize ballot tie for the last eligible place, if do not invalidate the ballot, I will choose the placement of the two "tied" candidates, generally preferring the candidate preferred by the other voters.

18) For any ties between candidates straddling the in/out line of selections, the first thing considered is the ranking of the candidates by the ballots cast. If there are more than two candidates tied, use a 3-2-1 or whatever is appropriate system. Once one person separates from the tied group, restart with the remaining candidates until there are only as many candidates as the rules call for being elected. If they remain tied after this process, the candidate with the most votes received wins. If it is still tied after that, those with the most #1 votes as the next step, then the most #2 votes and so on to see if that breaks the tie. If not, we will induct all candidates who remain tied at that point.

19) One thing we're going to have to be aware of is the timeline in the case of at least a few contributors. Two which jump out at me are Buck O'Neill, 1976, and Branch Rickey, 1946. I intend to eventually vote for both men, but in 1946, Jackie Robinson was still in Montreal. Really, Branch should wait until at least 1947 after Jackie's success in the majors to get credit for that move. If you think Rickey belongs in the top 5 in 1946 without his role in breaking the color line, that's fine--but he shouldn't get credit for that important success until it actually happened. Buck O'Neill did some important things up until 1976, but after that he was in Ken Burns' Baseball and he was instrumental in the establishment of the Negro Leagues Hall of Fame (both occurred in or around 1994). If you think he belongs based on accomplishments before those two things, that's perfectly acceptable, but please don't credit him with them before they actually happened.

20) I reserve the right to hold a Negro League special election in 2000 if we don't have a sufficient number in that category by then. These elections probably will be limited to voters I feel are appropriately versed on the group of players to be considered. I do wish to only use this as a last resort, however, and only to ensure that this group received what I regard as at least adequate bare minimum representation. I do not plan on sharing with you what I consider to meet those bare minimum standards, but I think that the number I am thinking of are well below the number of candidates that well informed observers believe are well qualified candidates from that group.

21) I will maintain a thread of the project's history and rules which will provide a listing of all elected candidates.

22) Feel free to ask questions by either sending jalbright a PM, or by posting a question in voting thread

jalbright

06-20-2009, 11:07 AM

The players who become eligible in 1950 are:

Berger , Wally
Dihigo , Martin
Ferrell , Rick
Johnson , Bob
Lindstrom , Freddie
Mancuso , Gus
Ruffing , Red

On the contributor side, Matsutori Shoriki joins the list of eligibles. Please note that as Fred Clarke has been elected as a player, he is no longer eligible as a contributor.

jalbright

06-20-2009, 11:10 AM

The 1949 player candidates who were not elected had these results in the that election:

Player…………… votes points
Wilson, Jud 11 79
Collins , Jimmy 10 75
Sisler , George 11 69
Vance , Dazzy 10 62
Magee , Sherry 10 51
Jackson , Joe 5 45
Radbourn , C 8 44
Wheat , Zack 7 42
Bennett , C 5 34
Lyons , Ted 7 33
Keeler , Willie 5 29
Waddell , Rube 6 28
Start , Joe 4 26
Sutton , Ezra 3 24
Bell, Cool Papa 6 22
Johnson , HR 3 21
Traynor , Pie 4 20
Coveleski , S 4 18
Groh , Heinie 3 16
McPhee , Bid 4 16
Stovey , Harry 3 15
Foster, Willie 3 14
Flick , Elmer 2 13
Maranville , R 3 13
Mackey, Biz 2 12
Caruthers , B 2 11
Grant , Frank 3 11
Joss , Addie 1 11
Klein, Chuck 2 11
Thompson , S 1 10
Pearce , Dickey 2 9
Terry , Bill 3 9
Carey , Max 1 8
Bresnahan , R 2 7
Chance , F 1 7
McGinnity , J 3 7
Gore , George 1 6
Galvin , Pud 2 5
Hill , Pete…... 2 5
Rixey , Eppa 1 4
Tinker, Joe 1 4
Evers , Johnny 1 3
Browning , Pete 1 2
Jennings , H 1 1

The 1949 contributor candidates who were not elected had these results in the that election:

Contributor………. votes points
Cartwright , A 7 30
Reach , A. J. 9 28
Commiskey , C 9 27
Landis , K 7 23
Hanlon , Ned 7 14
Posey, Cum 6 14
Taylor , C. I. 2 9
Spink, Albert 4 8
Pearce, Dickey 3 7
Caylor , O. P. 1 5
Doubleday , A 1 3
Dunn , Jack 1 3
Huggins , M 1 3
Chance , F 1 1
Conlan , C 1 1
Selee , Frank 1 1

I strongly suggest that you pay attention to this list, as the leaders of the holdovers are likely to join any strong newcomer candidates as the leaders for winning induction.

jalbright

06-20-2009, 11:12 AM

Members of the Best of Baseball Hall

Players

Pete Alexander
Cap Anson
Frank Baker
Ross Barnes
Dan Brouthers
Mordecai Brown
Jesse Burkett
Oscar Charleston
Fred Clarke
John Clarkson
Ty Cobb
Mickey Cochrane
Eddie Collins
Roger Connor
Sam Crawford
Bill Dahlen
George Davis
Ed Delahanty
Buck Ewing
Frankie Frisch
Lou Gehrig
Charlie Gehringer
Josh Gibson
Goose Goslin
Lefty Grove
Billy Hamilton
Gabby Hartnett
Harry Heilmann
Paul Hines
Rogers Hornsby
Carl Hubbell
Walter Johnson
Tim Keefe
King Kelly
Nap LaJoie
Pop Lloyd
Christy Mathewson
Kid Nichols
Jim O'Rourke
Eddie Plank
Bullet Joe Rogan
Amos Rusie
Babe Ruth
Louis Santop
Al Simmons
Tris Speaker
Turkey Stearnes
Mule Suttles
Cristobal Torriente
Honus Wagner
Ed Walsh
Paul Waner
John M. Ward
Deacon White
Smoky Joe Williams
George Wright
Cy Young

Contributors

Doc Adams
Ed Barrow
Henry Chadwick
Jim Creighton
Rube Foster
William Hulbert
Ban Johnson
Bill Klem
Connie Mack
John McGraw
Francis Richter
Branch Rickey
Al Spalding
Harry Wright

jalbright

06-20-2009, 11:14 AM

The complete list of eligible players:

Adams , Babe
Adams , Sparky
Altrock , Nick
Archer , Jimmy
Arlett , Buzz
Austin , Jimmy
Averill , Earl
Bancroft , Dave
Barry , Jack
Battin , Joe
Beaumont , Ginger
Beckley , Jake
Beckwith , John
Bell , Cool Papa
Bender , Chief
Bennett , Charlie
Benton , Larry
Berg , Moe
Bergen , Marty
Berger , Wally
Berry , Charlie
Bigbee , Carson
Bishop , Max
Blades , Ray
Blue , Lu
Bluege , Ossie
Bodie , Ping
Boley , Joe
Bond , Tommy
Bottomley , Jim
Bradley , Bill
Breitenstein , Ted
Bresnahan , Roger
Browning , Pete
Burns , George J.
Bush , Joe
Bush , Donie
Bush , Guy
Cadore , Leon
Camnitz , Howie
Carey , Max
Carrigan , Bill
Caruthers , Bob
Chance , Frank
Chapman , Ray
Chase , Hal
Chesbro , Jack
Childs , Cupid
Cicotte , Eddie
Cissell , Bill
Clark , Watty
Coakley , Andy
Collins , Jimmy
Collins , Shano
Combs , Earle
Conroy , Wid
Coombs , Jack
Cooper , Andy
Cooper , Wilbur
Coveleski , Stan
Crandall , Doc
Cravath , Gavvy
Creighton , Jim
Criger , Lou
Critz , Hughie
Cross , Lave
Crowder , Al
Cruise , Walt
Cummings , Candy
Cuyler , Kiki
Daubert , Jake
Davis , Curt
Davis , Harry
Davis , Spud
Dihigo , Martin
Dinneen , Bill
Doak , Bill
Donlin , Mike
Donovan , Bill
Dooin , Red
Doyle , Jack
Doyle , Larry
Duffy , Hugh
Dugan , Joe
Dunlap , Fred
Dykes , Jimmy
Earnshaw , George
Ehmke , Howard
Elberfeld , Kid
Elliott , Jumbo
Ens , Jewel
Evers , Johnny
Faber , Red
Falkenberg , Cy
Ferrell , Rick
Fitzsimmons , Freddie
Fletcher , Art
Flick , Elmer
Fonseca , Lew
Foster , Eddie
Foster , Willie
Fraser , Chick
Galvin , Pud
Glasscock , Jack
Gleason , Kid
Gonzalez , Mike
Gore , George
Gowdy , Hank
Grant , Eddie
Grant , Frank
Grantham , George
Griffith , Clark
Grimes , Burleigh
Grimm , Charlie
Groh , Heinie
Haas , Mule
Hafey , Chick
Hahn , Noodles
Haines , Jesse
Hallahan , Bill
Hargrave , Bubbles
Harris , Bucky
Herman , Babe
Herzog , Buck
Hill , Pete
Hinchman , Bill
Hooper , Harry
Hoyt , Waite
Huggins , Miller
Irwin , Charlie
Jackman , Will
Jackson , Joe
Jennings , Hughie
Johnson , Bob
Johnson , Home Run
Johnson , Judy
Jones , Charley
Jones , Fielder
Jones , Sam P.
Jordan , Tim
Joss , Addie
Judge , Joe
Kamm , Willie
Keeler , Willie
Kelley , Joe
Kerr , Dickie
Killefer , Bill
Kilroy , Matt
Klein , Chuck
Kling , Johnny
Knabe , Otto
Kremer , Ray
Lange , Bill
Larkin , Henry
Latham , Arlie
Lazzeri , Tony
Leach , Freddy
Leach , Tommy
Leever , Sam
Lewis , Duffy
Lindstrom , Freddie
Lobert , Hans
Long , Herman
Lowe , Bobby
Lucas , Red
Lundy , Dick
Luque , Dolf
Lyons , Denny
Lyons , Ted
Mackey , Biz
Magee , Sherry
Mancuso , Gus
Manush , Heinie
Maranville , Rabbit
Marberry , Firpo
Marquard , Rube
Martin , Pepper
Mathews , Bobby
Mays , Carl
McAleer , Jimmy
McCarthy , Tommy
McCormick , Jim
McGinnity , Joe
McGowan , Bill
McInnis , Stuffy
McLean , Larry
McManus , Marty
McPhee , Bid
McVey , Cal
Meadows , Lee
Mendez , Jose
Meusel , Bob
Milan , Clyde
Miller , Bing
Miller , Dots
Miller , Hack
Monroe , Bill
Moore , Dobie
Moran , Pat
Mostil , Johnny
Mullane , Tony
Murphy , Danny
Murray , Red
Myer , Buddy
Nehf , Art
O'Doul , Lefty
Oeschger , Joe
O'Farrell , Bob
O'Leary , Charlie
Oms , Alejandro
O'Neill , Steve
O'Neill , Tip
Orr , Dave
Pabor , Charlie
Paskert , Dode
Pearce , Dickey
Peckinpaugh , Roger
Peitz , Heinie
Pennock , Herb
Perdue , Hub
Perkins , Cy
Phillippe , Deacon
Pike , Lip
Pipp , Wally
Poles , Spotswood
Pruett , Hub
Quinn , Jack
Radbourn , Charlie
Raymond , Bugs
Redding , Dick
Remsen , Jack
Rice , Sam
Richardson , Hardy
Ring , Jimmy
Ritchey , Claude
Rixey , Eppa
Robertson , Dave
Rommel , Eddie
Root , Charlie
Roush , Edd
Rucker , Nap
Rudolph , Dick
Ruel , Muddy
Ruffing , Red
Ryan , Jimmy
Schacht , Al
Schaefer , Germany
Schalk , Ray
Schang , Wally
Schreckengost , Ossie
Schulte , Frank
Scott , Everett
Scott , Jack
Severeid , Hank
Sewell , Joe
Sewell , Luke
Seymour , Cy
Sheckard , Jimmy
Sherdel , Bill
Shocker , Urban
Sisler , George
Smith , Earl
Smith , Sherry
Sparks , Tully
Stahl , Jake
Start , Joe
Steinfeldt , Harry
Stephenson , Riggs
Stovey , Harry
Street , Gabby
Sukeforth , Clyde
Sutton , Ezra
Sweeney , Bill
Tannehill , Jesse
Taylor , Ben
Tenney , Fred
Terry , Bill
Thevenow , Tommy
Thomas , Ira
Thompson , Sam
Tiernan , Mike
Tinker , Joe
Toney , Fred
Traynor , Pie
Turner , Terry
Uhle , George
Van Haltren , George
Vance , Dazzy
Veach , Bobby
Waddell , Rube
Walberg , Rube
Wallace , Bobby
Wambsganss , Bill
Warfield , Frank
Welch , Mickey
West , Sam
Wheat , Zack
White , Sol
White , Will
Whitehill , Earl
Williams , Cy
Williams , Ken
Williamson , Ned
Willis , Vic
Wilson , Hack
Wilson , Jimmie
Wilson , Jud
Witt , Whitey
Wood , Joe
Wright , Glenn
Yerkes , Steve
Youngs , Ross
Zachary , Tom
Zimmer , Chief

The complete list of eligible contributors:

Abe , Iso
Bancroft , Frank
Bolden, Ed
Bulkely , Morgan
Carrigan, Bill
Cartwright , Alexander
Caylor , O. P.
Chance , Frank
Commiskey , Charlie
Conlan , Charles
Connolly , Tom
Cooper , Andy
Cummings , Candy
Dinneen , Bill
Doubleday , Abner
Dreyfuss , Barney
Dunn , Jack
Elias , Al Munro
Evans, Billy
Foster , John B.
Fullerton , Hugh
Gleason , Kid
Griffith , Clark
Hanlon , Ned
Harridge, Willie
Hillerich , John
Huggins , Miller
Jennings , Hughie
Krichell, Paul
Landis , Kenesaw
Lardner , Ring
Leavitt, Jr. , Charles W.
McCarthy , Tommy
Mendez , Jose
Mills , A. G.
Moran , Pat
Mutrie , Jim
Navin , Frank
Norworth, Jack
Osborn , Frank
Posey, Cum
Reach , A. J.
Rice, Grantland
Robinson , Wilbert
Ruppert , Jacob
Selee , Frank
Shibe , Ben
Shoriki, Matsutaro
Spink, Albert
Stallings , George
Street, Gabby
Taylor , C. I.
Thayer , Ernest
Warfield , Frank
White , Sol
Wilkinson , J. L.
Wilson , Horace

jalbright

06-20-2009, 11:19 AM

My ballot:

Players
1. Martin Dihigo
2. Sherry Magee
3. Zack Wheat
4. Jud Wilson
5. Dazzy Vance
6. Harry Stovey
7. Ted Lyons
8. Cool Papa Bell
9. Red Ruffing
10. Joe McGinnity
11. Rube Waddell
12. Willie Foster

Contributors
1. Kennesaw Landis
2. Ned Hanlon
3. Cum Posey
4. Charlie Commiskey
5. Miller Huggins

Martin Dihigo moves to the top of my ballot, Red Ruffing slides into spot #9, and I've found room for Willie Foster this time. On the contributor side, Huggins isn't drawing any support outside of me, so he'll slide back to 5th this time. Commiskey comes on the ballot in the #4 slot.

jalbright

06-20-2009, 11:23 AM

Willie Foster ELECTED BBF HOF

His list of accolades is rather impressive:
1) enshrined in Cooperstown;
2) selected to the Baseball Think Factory "Hall of Merit";
3) on the first team in the Pittsburgh Courier poll; and
4) finished 18th in the SABR poll ranking luminaries of the Negro Leagues.

Bill James in his latest Historical Abstract indicates Foster was the best pitcher in the Negro Leagues in three different seasons, 1927, 1931, and 1932. The Baseball Think Factory guys calculate that he earned 49 Black Ink points in the Negro Leagues and 97 Gray Ink points.

The Baseball Think Factory guys project him as deserving of a 212-136 record, worth 205 Fibonacci win points. They also project him at 254 career win shares, 131 in his best 5 consecutive, and top three of 33, 28 and 27. In my opinion, those marks are deserving of a slot between Ted Lyons (311 career, 110 best 5 consecutive, top three of 30, 26 and 23 and 168 Fibonacci) and Jim Bunning (252 career, 100 best 5 consecutive, top three of 30, 27 and 26 with a Fibonacci of 163).

William McNeil on page 203 of Cool Papas and Double Duties says Willie Foster "is generally considered to be the greatest left-handed pitcher in Negro league history."

Fom Riley's Biographical Encyclopedia of the Negro Leagues, page 292:
Willie Foster was a pitching star for the Chicago American Giants for over a decade. With near-perfect control and a wide assortment of pitches, [many] delivered with the same motion, the tall left-hander was at his best when the stakes were the highest. With a crucial game to win, Willie was the kind of pitcher a manager wanted on the mound. He was a smart pitcher who knew how to get the most out of his vast repertory of pitches, which included a blazing fastball, a fast-breaking drop, a sidearm curve, and a masterful change of pace.

Foster's post 1920 statistics from Shadows of Glory, expressed in 275 IP form:

games GS CG IP hits runs ER ERA K BB WP HB SV W L Pct
43 30 24 275.0 225 103 73 2.40 150 76 2 5 3 21 10 .675

jalbright

06-20-2009, 11:24 AM

Martin Dihigo
Years played: 1923-1947 (Eleven in Mexico, 23 Cuban winters)
Main position: Pitcher, and could add excellent defense everywhere but catcher and short when not on the mound. You’d waste skills like his at first or in left, but otherwise he was top shelf defensively. I think I’d put him at second, but others might put him in center or right.
All star selections: 1 year in Negro League all-star game, 4 Holway picks, twice in Cuba (that award began in the 1940’s. Also please note Mexico did not have all-star selections at this time.)
MVP/ Pitcher of the Year selections: 4 Cuban MVPs
League champions on: 1 American summer, 9 Cuban, 4 Mexican
League leading performances: In American summers, was in the top five in average twice, in the top five in steals once, and in the top four in homers six times (led once). In Mexico, he was once second in average, once 4th in homers and once 4th in RBI, also finished once in each of the top three places in wins, led twice in ERA, led three times each in winning percentage and strikeouts. In Cuba, he led in batting average, runs, hits and RBI all in the same year and also led in wins once, ERA once and winning percentage four times. In Cuba he is the career leader in wins and 4th in career winning percentage.
Expert rankings: top ranked “utility player” in the CPDD historian’s poll, top “utility player” in the Courier poll, sixth OF in the Museum poll, tied for 8th in the SABR poll, James’ pick as the #1 RF in the Negro Leagues and 95th overall, Clark’s first team pick as a “utility player” and on Team #1 of the All World selections as a “utility player”.

I put him just a tad behind Rogan because while I believe he was better with the glove, he wasn’t as consistent in putting fine pitching together with fine hitting as Rogan was. In American summers, Dihigo concentrated on working as a position player, and my impression is that when he was at his best as a position player, he wasn’t at his best as a pitcher and vice versa. He was darned good even when not at his best, but in a comparison with Rogan, that’s a weakness. Furthermore, Dihigo at his best either in position play or in pitching was extraordinary.

In his Cuban Winter League career, he hit .296 and slugged .410 (no walk data) with a winning percentage of .656 in 163 decisions. In his Mexican League career, he hit .317 with an OBP of .416 while slugging .490 with a winning percentage of .676 in 176 decisions with 6.55 strikeouts per 9 IP and a strikeout to walk ratio of 2.38 to 1. All this helped him to a 2.84 career ERA there. In American summers, Shades of Gray credits him with a lifetime average of .307, OBP of .371 and .511 slugging with a .578 winning percentage in 45 decisions and a 2.2 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio leading to a 2.92 ERA. Really, either the position half of his play was excellent by itself or the pitching half of his play was excellent by itself, but the combination of the two was truly extraordinary.

The best comparison I can come up with for Dihigo is Monte Ward. Dihigo pitched at the modern distance, Ward didn’t. Also, Ward didn’t mix the roles as Dihigo did. However, Ward did have the skills to play a middle infield slot, which helps make him a decent comparison, especially since so few guys have been very successful for any period of time at position play and pitching

Domenic

06-20-2009, 11:38 AM

01. Martin Dihigo
02. Dazzy Vance
03. Sherry Magee
04. Joe Jackson
05. Heinie Groh
06. Cool Papa Bell
07. Zack Wheat
08. Rube Waddell
09. Wally Berger
10. Jimmy Collins
11. Willie Foster
12. Charley Radbourn

01. Alexander Cartwright
02. Kenesaw Landis
03. Ned Hanlon
04. Cum Posey
05. A.J. Reach

leecemark

06-20-2009, 11:46 AM

1) Martin DiHigo
2) Jimmy Collins
3) Charlie Bennett
4) Dazzy Vance
5) Charlie Radbourne
6) Rube Waddell
7) Sherry Magee
8) Jud Wilson
9) Ted Lyons
10) Zack Wheat
11) Willie Foster
12) George Sisler

1) Alexander Cartwright
2) Dickey Pearce
3) Commissioner Landis
4) Charlie Commiskey
5) Ned Hanlon

Ubiquitous

06-20-2009, 11:46 AM

1. Sherry Magee
2. Pie Traynor
3. Heinie Groh
4. Max Carey
5. Frank Chance
6. Rabbit Marranville
7. Bid McPhee
8. Joe Tinker
9. Johnny Evers
10. Roger Bresnahan
11. George Sisler
12. Zack Wheat

1. Charles Comiskey
2. Jack Dunn
3. A.J. Reach
4. Alfred Spink
5. Frank Selee

bambambaseball

06-20-2009, 12:41 PM

Players:

1. Stan Coveleski
2. Charlie Bennett
3. Martin DiHigo
4. Jimmy Collins
5. Ezra Sutton
6. George Sisler
7. Bob Caruthers
8. Roger Bresnahan
9. Dickey Pearce
10. Sherry Magee
11. Jud Wilson
12. Dazzy Vance

Contributers:

1. O.P. Caylor
2. A.J. Reach
3. Charles Commiskey
4. Cum Posey
5. Clark Griffith

Dogdaze

06-20-2009, 01:50 PM

Players:

1. Martin Dihigo
2. Jud Wilson
3. Jimmy Collins
4. George Sisler
5. Zack Wheat
6. Willie Foster
7. Cool Papa Bell
8. Old Hoss Radbourn
9. Biz Mackey
10. Frank Grant
11. Sherry Magee
12. Rube Waddell

Contributors:

1. C. I. Taylor
2. A.J. Reach
3. Al Spink
4. Cum Posey
5. Charles Comiskey

Paul Wendt

06-20-2009, 03:16 PM

Contributors
1 Comiskey
2 Reach
3 Posey
4 Hanlon
5 Wilkinson

Among the builders of teams I support Selee (Ubi), Griffith (bam), and Wilkinson. Let's see whether any of them is ready to roll.

For Black History month this year, MLB.com presented the top five Negro Leagues executives.
>>
In a salute to Black History Month, MLB.com is counting down to the No. 1 executive in the history of the Negro Leagues. More than two dozen people who have written extensively about the Negro Leagues or are passionate about its history submitted their choices. Based on a compilation of their votes, here is a profile of the man who finished No. 2: J.L. Wilkinson (http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090206&content_id=3804336&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb), owner of the Kansas City Monarchs.
<<

jjpm74

06-21-2009, 07:35 AM

Players:

1. Martin DiHigo
2. Ezra Sutton
3. Joe Start
4. Jimmy Collins
5. Red Ruffing
6. Charlie Bennett
7. Rabbit Maranville
8. George Sisler
9. Jud Wilson
10. Pie Traynor
11. Cool Papa Bell
12. Ted Lyons

Contributors:

1. Matsutaro Shoriki
2. Cum Posey
3. C. I. Taylor
4. Charley Comiskey
5. Al Reach

Matsutaro Shoriki joins my ballot on the contributor's side in the #1 slot in his first year of eligibility. Shoriki was instrumental in establishing professional baseball in Japan. He is on the same pioneering level for me as Doc Adams and Rube Foster and, IMO, doesn't get enough credit for his achievement.

Paul Wendt

06-21-2009, 08:08 AM

jalbright

06-21-2009, 09:59 AM

We struggled to get Shoriki in to the BBF HOF, so I guessed he wouldn't draw much support this early. I'm actually happy to see someone else start the ball rolling, and there's no doubt that if it moves much, it won't take long for me to join in.

Paul Wendt

06-21-2009, 03:33 PM

jalbright and Tiboreau have posted a lot on Jud Wilson re the Negro Leagues election.
(page one, especially #5 and #12 (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?p=1547461#post1547461))

--
Last year I flipped Wilson ahead of Grant Johnson at four and five on this ballot.

The Hall of Merit ranks Wilson #6 at third and Johnson #12 at short but that does not imply any comparison. For Ezra Sutton #12 at third and Jack Glasscock #18 at short, another special project at the HOM does provide a direct comparison and a clear preference for Glasscock.

It does seem plausible to me that 18 shortstops rank with 12 thirdbasemen.

jalbright

06-21-2009, 06:32 PM

Jud Wilson sure seems due at this point. In 1947, he was 4th, 7 points away from election. He dropped to 5th due to the incredible incoming class in 1948, well off the pace of election. In 1949, he was 4th again, this time a mere 3 points away from election.

PVNICK

06-22-2009, 06:14 AM

1. George Sisler
2. Martin Dihigo
3. Jimmy Collins
4. Hoss Radbourne
5. Pie Traynor
6. Bob Caruthers
7. Willie Keeler
8. Stan Coveleski
9. Bill Terry
10. Dazzy Vance
11. Sherry Magee
12. Jud Wilson

1. AJ Reach
2. Albert Spink
3. Landis
4. Hanlon
5. Shoriki

dgarza

06-22-2009, 04:05 PM

Players

1. Sam Thompson
2. Chuck Klein
3. Joe Jackson
4. George Sisler
5. Harry Stovey
6. Martin Dihigo
7. Willie Keeler
8. Bill Terry
9. Charley Radbourn
10. Pete Browning
11. Hugh Duffy
12. Cool Papa Bell

Contributors

1. Kenesaw Landis
2. Alexander Cartwright
3. Abner Doubleday
4. Charles Commiskey
5. Charles Conlon

jalbright

06-22-2009, 06:28 PM

We now have a quorum on the contributor side, and are just one player ballot away from that status on that side of the ballot.

jaxxr

06-23-2009, 01:07 PM

1 Joe Jackson
2 Addie Joss
3 George Sisler
4 Martin Dihigo
5 Dazzy Vance
6 Willie Keeler
7 Bid McPhee
8 Rube Waddell
9 Bill Terry
10 Chuck Klien
11 Pie Traynor
12 Elmer Flick

I am somewhat surprised by the lack of support for Addie Joss.
The second best ERA of all time, the fourth best PF adjusted ERA + of any starter in the Cooperstown HOF, he pitched more innings than Sandy Koufax, and his WHIP is the best of any MLB pitcher in the game's entire history !

In a consideration for a hall of "FAME", his untimely death at the age of 31, and career stats ranking, would seem to make Joss an obvious choice.

jjpm74

06-23-2009, 01:17 PM

Shoriki? I concede that I wasn't paying attention. If our expert on Japanese baseball had cast him a vote I would have noticed. I do know Shoriki from the BBFHOF discussion and I voted for him there.

Since none of them is remotely a candidate for election before 1953, I'll stick with Wilkinson now and with paying attention to who picks up votes from others.

My primary reason for bumping up Shoriki to #1 is that his pioneering role in Japanese baseball, to me, trumps the three team builders (Selee, Wilkinson, Griffith) you mentioned above and was also more significant an achievement than the other 4 I am voting for. Those 3 are currently sitting at #1, 2, 3 in my queue and at least 1 of them will be on my ballot next year barring a strong new class of contributors or one of my 5 not getting elected this go around.

Given the lack of statistical information when it comes to contributors and how much of a variance we see in the rage of their contributions, I find pioneers who were instrumental in something huge, like establishing professional baseball in a major baseball nation more significant than the Tom Connoly and AJ Reach's of the world.

jalbright

06-23-2009, 07:41 PM

I am somewhat surprised by the lack of support for Addie Joss. The second best ERA of all time, the fourth best PF adjusted ERA + of any starter in the Cooperstown HOF, he pitched more innings than Sandy Koufax, and his WHIP is the best of any MLB pitcher in the game's entire history !

In a consideration for a hall of "FAME", his untimely death at the age of 31, and career stats ranking, would seem to make Joss an obvious choice.

I've had this discussion before, and I'll reprise it for you:

Addie Joss
However, saying that Joss has no business in the HOF is ridiculous. His 1.89 ERA is 2nd all-time, adjusted ERA+ of 142 is 10th all-time. His 8.7 baserunners per 9 innings happens to be 1st all-time. He had a short career, but it was an excellent one, HOF worthy without question.

......
I feel that Joss, Waddell, and other pitchers from that era such as Ed Walsh, Mordecai Brown and Smokey Joe Wood don't get the credit they deserve. They shouldn't be mentioned quite in the same breath as the Big 4 from that era (Johnson, Alexander, Mathewson, Young), but they are just below them IMO. I may be stretching it with Smokey Joe, but at his peak he was awesome and Walter once said no man alive can throw harder than Smokey Joe.

Well, I'm glad we don't have to debate that at least Walter Johnson, Mathewson and Cy Young are all superior to Joss. Joss finishes 11th among pitchers in the decade 1900-09 behind those three, McGinnity, Waddell, Vic Willis, Plank, Three Finger Brown, Chesbro, Doc White and Jack Powell. I can see putting Joss ahead of White and Powell on peak performance. I look at six categories for guys in this era: Black Ink, Gray ink, HOF standards, career win shares, win share total in his best three seasons, and best win share total in five consecutive seasons. We'll go through the comparison to Chesbro in detail below in a moment. Of the HOFers (thus leaving out White and Powell), Joss can only edge Plank in gray ink, tie Waddell in HOF standards, and get Willis in HOF standards and best five consecutive, at least in that decade. He gets swamped on career wins shares by every one of them and often is significantly behind these guys in at least most of these categories. Even if we cut it down to 8 seasons in the decade like Joss (who only managed 7 more win shares from 1910 on), these guys are still beating him.

The real coup de grace for Joss's case in my mind, though, is the comparison to Jack Chesbro:

…………………...... Chesbro Joss
Black Ink………… 27 19
Gray Ink………… 130 143
HOF standards… 40 47
career WS………. 209 191
WS 1900-09……… 203 184
best 8 WS……….. 195 184
best 3 WS……… 103 88
best 5 consecWS 143 131

I threw in the decade and best 8 seasons figures to try and give Joss a break, but it did no good. There's 130 years of baseball, and we've got 70 major league pitchers or so in the Hall. That works out to about six a decade on average if we leave out the last decade. If you want to push it to 7 or 8 by taking fewer 19th century guys and eliminating duplicates, OK--but we already have 8 from the decade before getting to Joss versus Chesbro. The selection of Chesbro has drawn a lot of flak, but if we're only going to take Chesbro or Joss, I take Chesbro hands down.

I might add that only three of the ten most similar pitchers to Joss are in the HOF, and two of them are Candy Cummings (for his supposed invention of the curve) and Monte Ward (who had about two other HOF caliber careers in baseball, one as a shortstop and another as a executive type).

I'll add this analysis by AG2004:
1. Was he ever regarded as the best player in baseball? Did anybody, while he was active, ever suggest that he was the best player in baseball?

No.

2. Was he the best player on his team?

He led Cleveland’s pitchers in win shares in 1903, 1905, 1907, and 1908.

3. Was he the best player in baseball at his position? Was he the best player in the league at his position?

He never led AL pitchers in win shares, although he finished second in 1908. He was third among major league pitchers in win shares that season, but that was his only year among the top six in win shares among MLB pitchers.

4. Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races?

He had 35 win shares in 1908, when Cleveland lost the pennant by half a game, and pitched a perfect game in the heat of the pennant race. Otherwise, Cleveland wasn’t close to winning the pennant during Joss’ career.

5. Was he good enough that he could play regularly after passing his prime?

For Joss, this question is not relevant. He died of meningitis at the age of 31, so we don’t know what his decline would have been like had he lived.

6. Is he the very best baseball player in history who is not in the Hall of Fame?

No.

7. Are most players who have comparable statistics in the Hall of Fame?

By similarity scores: John Ward, Larry Corcoran, Deacon Phillippe, Jeff Pfeffer, Noodles Hahn, Hooks Wiltse, Dizzy Dean, Jack Coombs, Candy Cummings, and Fred Toney. Three of the ten are in Cooperstown, but Ward also had a career as a shortstop, and Cummings is in as inventor of the curveball. However, Joss’ lifetime ERA+ of 141 is the best of the bunch; nobody else has one higher than 131. Similarity scores don’t help us here.

Career win shares, contemporary P: Sam Leever 212, Jack Chesbro 209, Deacon Philippe 206, Wild Bill Donovan 202, Bill Dineen 200, JOSS 191, Jack Taylor 183. Chesbro is the only one in Cooperstown, and he’s considered one of the Hall’s mistakes. Otherwise, these aren’t Hall of Famers.

Best three seasons, contemporary P: Vic Willis 101, Clark Griffith 94, Eddie Plank 89, Jack Powell 89, JOSS 88, Jack Taylor 85, Bill Dineen 81, Babe Adams 81, George Mullin 80. This isn’t BBFHOF territory, either.

Best five consecutive seasons: Vic Willis 138, Bill Dineen 134, Eddie Plank 133, JOSS 131, Jack Taylor 124. This isn’t the best company for Joss, as he’s just below the cutoff line.

8. Do the player's numbers meet Hall of Fame standards?

His Black Ink score of 19 is only 99th, and his Gray Ink score of 143 is just 102nd. Those are not good marks. However, he does place a decent 42nd in HOF Standards, at 47.0.

9. Is there any evidence to suggest that the player was significantly better or worse than is suggested by his statistics?

Joss pitched in the deadball era, which makes his raw numbers look better. Also, he had no decline phase to lower his career numbers.

10. Is he the best player at his position who is eligible for the Hall of Fame?

No. There are many other pitchers better than Joss who aren’t in the BBFHOF. There are pitchers better than Joss who haven’t even received votes in the BBFHOF elections.

11. How many MVP-type seasons did he have? Did he ever win an MVP award? If not, how many times was he close?

There was no MVP award during Joss’ career. He finished second in win shares among AL pitchers in 1908, however.

12. How many All-Star-type seasons did he have? How many All-Star games did he play in? Did most of the players who played in this many All-Star games go into the Hall of Fame?

There was no All-Star game in Joss’ era. Baseball Magazine started naming its all-league and all-American teams in 1908. Joss was one of the five pitchers on its all-AL team that season, but failed to make the all-American team that year.

Joss had only two seasons in which he was among the top five AL pitchers in win shares. He was sixth one other year, and seventh two other times. But three or four All-Star-type seasons is very low for a pitcher.

13. If this man were the best player on his team, would it be likely that the team could win the pennant?

I don’t know. Joss had only two seasons when he was among the top five pitchers in the AL in win shares. However, those were the only seasons when he was among the top ten in the AL in IP and games started. I don’t know why he wasn’t used as often as other leading pitchers in the league.

14. What impact did the player have on baseball history? Was he responsible for any rule changes? Did he introduce any new equipment? Did he change the game in any way?

He pitched a perfect game in 1908. He’s also known as the player Cooperstown waived its ten-year requirement for.

Joss has the best WHIP of any major league pitcher in history, and the second best ERA of any pitcher. He’s twelfth in adjusted ERA+ among major league pitchers.

15. Did the player uphold the standards of sportsmanship and character that the Hall of Fame, in its written guidelines, instructs us to consider?

As far as I can tell.

CONCLUSION: A player with a career as short as Joss’ needs a huge peak in order to deserve induction into the BBFHOF. Joss had very good rate stats, but suffers in the win shares measures because he usually didn’t pitch as many times per season as his contemporaries. As he doesn’t come close to having the best peak among pitchers of the twentieth century’s first decade - he didn't make Baseball Magazine's list of top five pitchers in 1908, his best season - Joss does not deserve induction into the BBFHOF.

Freakshow

06-24-2009, 08:05 AM

1 Martin Dihigo
2 Jud Wilson
3 Jimmy Collins
4 Dazzy Vance
5 Zack Wheat
6 George Sisler
7 Joe Start
8 Sherry Magee
9 Ted Lyons
10 Bid McPhee
11 Red Faber
12 Elmer Flick

Brad Harris

06-24-2009, 09:04 AM

Players
1. Dihigo
2. Wilson
3. Magee
4. Vance
5. Wheat
6. Lyons
7. Sisler
8. Waddell
9. Start
10. McGinnity
11. Sutton
12. Traynor

Contributors
1. Comiskey
2. Spink
3. Selee
4. Reach
5. Huggins

jaxxr

06-24-2009, 09:20 AM

jalbright

06-24-2009, 09:31 AM

The big problem with Joss is not that he couldn't prevent runs, but it seems he couldn't handle the innings of an ace of the time. At least that's what his manager thought, judging by his usage. He was only in the top 10 in IP twice in his career--in an 8 team league. If he could had, with those ERAs, he would do far better in Win Shares relative to his peers. I'm sorry, but that element of durability definitely should count, and in Joss's case, it counts against him. Was he a good player? Absolutely. Is there an argument that at least merits his inclusion in the HOF? Yes, though I don't personally buy it, but that's a personal evaluation. Does he deserve a lot of attention at this point in this project? I think the clear answer of our voters is no.

jaxxr

06-24-2009, 10:31 AM

The big problem with Joss is not that he couldn't prevent runs, but it seems he couldn't handle the innings of an ace of the time. At least that's what his manager thought, judging by his usage.

I have no way of knowing what the actual decisions, as to opponents, scheduled doubleheaders, pitch counts, etc., that managers Bill Amour and Nap Lajoie were based upon, however Joss started the most games in 4 of his 8 full seasons, 4 of 7 if you discount his rookie season.
In 1909 Cy Young started 35 games for Cleveland Naps, Joss started 33, although not technically the "ace' via the above stated criteria, Joss had the better ERA, adjusted ERA +, and a better K/BB ratio than "ace" Young.

In comparison to his peers, Joss has a career complete game plus, or CG+ mark of 116, so he was solidly better than average.
A somewhat unofficial stat, shutout percentage, it shows Joss as the second most likely starter in Cooperstown to be able to throw a shutout.

It's true he was not a fantasitc workhorse like Ironman Joe McGinnity, a non-ace when compared to Christy Mathewson, and perhaps his untimely death, not a sore arm or bad back, or contractual disputes to limit his compile or INK numbers, might confirm he was not the most healthy pitcher of his time era.

All the speculations, formula results, excuses, or other aspects do NOT change the recorded official MLB facts;
He is the finest pitcher ever, via WHIP,
He has the second best ERA of all time
He is fourth best among HOF starter via adjusted ERA +
He has the best control via BB/9 of any 20th century HOF pitcher.

jalbright

06-24-2009, 11:41 AM

All your facts are true, but by other measures, such as Win Shares versus his peers, Joss was lacking--that is also true. Win Shares isn't designed to help or hurt Joss, and I and some others here use that measure. We all have different perspectives, and I don't expect to change your feeling on this any more than I expect you to change mine. The simple fact is, we differ on Joss. We've got a number of perspectives in our group, and the sum of them is what makes the project interesting.

However, in your prior reply, you didn't address why Joss only managed to be in the top ten in innings pitched twice. That means he was never a workhorse. The problem is that value is based in some degree of opportunities times those rate stats. It's unfortunate Joss died young, but he gets no break from me for that--it's just a career ending injury as far as I'm concerned. Had Joss played a full career, he might have turned in a HOF-caliber career. That said, I'm willing to bet even if he did, his rate stats wouldn't be as outstanding as he would have had a decline phase to contend with. It's really tough for a guy who wasn't a workhorse and had a short career to merit the HOF. To his credit, Joss comes close to pulling it off, but that's as far as I go.

Captain Cold Nose

06-24-2009, 12:43 PM

1. Martin Dihigo
2. George Sisler
3. Willie Keeler
4. Cool Papa Bell
5. Charles Radbourne
6. Jud Wilson
7. Jimmy Collins
8. Harry Stovey
9. Frank Grant
10. Pete Hill
11. Zack Wheat
12. Dazzy Vance

Contributors

1. Alexander Cartwright
2. Ned Hanlon
3. A.J. Reach
4. Frank Chance
5. Kenesaw Landis

Paul Wendt

06-24-2009, 12:57 PM

... the finest WHIP in the entire history of MLB, is more significant than being the second best pitcher ever via ERA, and tell more about pitching than BB/9, where Joss is best among 20th century hurlers
none of these three measures compares Joss with the averages, or any other summary statistic, of all the pitchers in his own league seasons. Batting averages and run scoring were exceptionally low precisely in his time.

jalbright

06-24-2009, 02:19 PM

none of these three measures compares Joss with the averages, or any other summary statistic, of all the pitchers in his own league seasons. Batting averages and run scoring were exceptionally low precisely in his time.

Good point. I will also point out that with many of the same voters in this project, Joss could not muster 75% in the BBF HOF project. I can't recall if he broke 60%, though he did break 50%--even at the end of the project, when people could choose to name 25 players they thought worthy of that project's "Hall". He might get inducted in this project, but if he's elected before 2000, I'll be surprised (though it won't be the first time).

leecemark

06-24-2009, 06:16 PM

In 1909 Cy Young started 35 games for Cleveland Naps, Joss started 33, although not technically the "ace' via the above stated criteria, Joss had the better ERA, adjusted ERA +, and a better K/BB ratio than "ace" Young.

--In 1909 Cy Young was 42 years old and carrying at least 30 extra pounds on him. That he was still able to take the hill more often than the 29 year old Joss, coming off the best year of his career, says pretty much all you need to know about Joss's durability.
--Joss was a terrific pitcher when he was on the mound, but he was not on the mound nearly as much as the other top pitcher of his day. He was never the best pitcher in his league and only close to it a couple times in his career. That just isn't enough peak value to make up for his lack of career value IMO.

jalbright

06-24-2009, 07:34 PM

Two other ways to chew on Joss' durability (or lack of same vis-a-vis other star pitchers of the day):

1) From the advent of the 60 foot, 6 inch pitching distance to the end of 1918 (HR rates jumped in 1919), Joss has the 41st most innings pitched.

2) If we limit the years to only the ones Joss pitched (which gives him a bit of an advantage, somewhat compensated for by his 107 IP last season, he's only 9th in IP.

jaxxr

06-24-2009, 08:12 PM

none of these three measures compares Joss with the averages, or any other summary statistic, of all the pitchers in his own league seasons. Batting averages and run scoring were exceptionally low precisely in his time.

Merely considering ERA +, among all the pitchers of his time era, and among every starting pitcher already in the official HOF, Joss is the fourth best.

ERA alone, does not adjust for the time era peculiarities, although Joss was second best ever, however, ERA + factors in the other pitcher's quality of his time era, it also factors in the ballparks, only Walter Johnson, Ed Walsh and Lefty Grove have ever been able to top their time era peers, or the pool of the entire MLB history, by a better margin than Joss did.

Joss died at 31 years of age, is 31 a typical past- peak time for other HOF pitchers ? Since the actual recorded official stats, and Joss' quality is questioned, would it be possible to assume perhaps from 31-36 he still could pitch comparable to his past full seasons ? or can one be absolutely sure he would drop off greatly ?

We can go by what actually did happen, his WHIP, was probably affected by the time era, but does not his tremendous control, best among all 20th century pitchers in the HOF, offset that potential ?

Joss did throw a perfect game, and had a season with a 205 ERA +, his peak should be unquestionably great, he was not an ironman, as I previously stated, however is quantity more important than quality ?

Don Sutton, Tommy John, Burliegh Grimes, Gus Weyhing, and many others threw over 4000 innings, are they necessarily better than Joss ?
Ted Lyons, Al Orth, Sam Jones, and Bobo Newsome all had more complete games than Joss' 234, are they better ?

I realize I am in the minority in viewing the accomplishments and various very high ranking all time stats, for Addie Joss, although I am still somewhat surprised by his lack of recognition herein.
I guess I'll just have to take comfort that the official baseball hall of fame did consider all the circumstances, and most properly inducted him, some 30 years ago.

Freakshow

06-25-2009, 08:11 AM

jalbright

06-25-2009, 08:51 AM

Looking only at rate stats (ERA+, WHIP, etc.) can lead one to overrate Joss; looking only at counting stats (IP, W, etc.) has the opposite effect.

Joss wasn't the 4th best pitcher of his era; neither was he the 19th best. He's somewhere in between, around the HOF in/out line. That's why he was the 10th pitcher the Hall elected from that era.

Precisely. Joss may make it in here, though quite likely without support from me. He may not. But when we haven't taken Waddell or McGinnity yet, among others, I think it's safe the consensus is it's too early for Joss.

PVNICK

06-25-2009, 09:10 AM

There's so many "consensus" HOF players like Sisler, Wheat, Vance and even the two greatest 3B as of 1950 Jimmy Collins and Pie Traynor that its no insult to get a paltry vote.

jjpm74

06-25-2009, 09:16 AM

Addie Joss may eventually stand out enough to make my ballot towards the end of this project, but there are about 60 people currently in my queue who I'd place ahead of him. He's not even close to being a consensus HOFer and we are nowhere near a point where the Addie Joss and Jake Beckleys of the world should be commanding serious consideration.

jalbright

06-25-2009, 01:48 PM

On a different topic, next election will add a strong manager to the eligibles for the contributors in Bill McKechnie, though he won't be the top manager available--and in 1952, an even stronger managerial candidate in Joe McCarthy joins the list. On the player side, there's five guys who I doubt will get much if any support as players in Paul Derringer, Charlie Gelbert, Vic Harris, Joe Kuhel and Gus Suhr. There's a HOFer that I doubt will get much support here in Lloyd Waner and a pitcher who will draw some support in Tommy Bridges. Perucho Cepeda will join the list and is in the BBF HOF, but he's likely to have to wait a decade or more before he draws much support. The only name I haven't mentioned is one I expect to jump right into strong competition for induction (if not actually get inducted) in Joe Cronin.

jaxxr

06-25-2009, 04:49 PM

Most Wins 1899-1913
Cnt Player W W-L% ERA+ IP From To
+----+-----------------+---+-----+----+------+----+----+
1 C. Mathewson* 337 .682 147 4208 1900 1913
2 Cy Young* 270 .599 137 4003.2 1899 1911
3 Eddie Plank* 269 .634 122 3675.1 1901 1913
4 Joe McGinnity* 246 .634 120 3441.1 1899 1908
5 Vic Willis* 224 .538 117 3685 1899 1910
6 George Mullin 212 .535 101 3451.1 1902 1913
7 Jack Powell 207 .475 103 3822 1899 1912
8 Mordecai Brown* 206 .656 149 2655 1903 1913
9 Jack Chesbro* 198 .600 110 2896.2 1899 1909
10 Sam Leever 193 .659 123 2627.2 1899 1910
11 Rube Waddell* 193 .576 135 2947.1 1899 1910
12 Ed Walsh* 190 .611 147 2871.1 1904 1913
13 Doc White 189 .548 113 3041 1901 1913
14 Deacon Phillippe 189 .634 120 2607 1899 1911
15 Bill Donovan 184 .586 108 2836 1899 1912
16 Chief Bender* 176 .640 117 2423 1903 1913
17 Jesse Tannehill 162 .633 116 2252.2 1899 1911
18 Bill Dinneen 161 .500 108 2856.1 1899 1909
19 Addie Joss* 160 .623 142 2327 1902 1910
20 Al Orth 152 .510 100 2538.1 1899 1909
Looking only at rate stats (ERA+, WHIP, etc.) can lead one to overrate Joss; looking only at counting stats (IP, W, etc.) has the opposite effect.

Joss wasn't the 4th best pitcher of his era; neither was he the 19th best. He's somewhere in between, around the HOF in/out line. That's why he was the 10th pitcher the Hall elected from that era.

Joss' time era was NOT 1899 to 1913.

It was actually 1902 though part of 1910.

I believe none of the listed pitchers had an untimely career ending event, a death, at the young, prime of life age, of 31 either, I would guess that had some effect on his relatively lesser compile stats.

As a hopefully final note, on Addie Joss,
regardless of time era influence,, which was similar for Christy Mathewson, Ed Walsh, Cy Young, Walter Johnson or any on the afore list, Joss had the absolute best WHIP, among them, and it can be extended to among any MLB pitcher ever, Mariano Rivera, Greg Maddux, and Lefty Grove included, that alone should warrant serious HOF consideration, when added to other very high all time rankings, and combined with an extremely unusual early death, it seems he has a very solid case.

leecemark

06-25-2009, 05:13 PM

--Joss' elite rate stats are in part because of his untimley death. Virtually every player has a number of years in the back of their career where they are not the same player they were in their prime. This brings their rate stats down. Joss did not have this effect on his. You'd need to compare him to player only for the best 9 years of thier career or up to age 31 or somthing of that nature for a fair comparison. You should also keep in mind that Joss suffered a serious arm injury the season before his death. Assuming that he had alot of good years left in him if not for the meningetis is a strech.

jaxxr

06-25-2009, 08:40 PM

It is always interesting and usually fun to guess "what if" when evaluating baseball players, war years, injury, death, drug use, and many other things which could affect the stats.

Often a reasonable estimate or speculation may be made, adjustments, normalizations, time machines, and Crystal balls are helpful,
however, the recorded official MLB facts remain, and show,

Joss has the best WHIP of any pitcher ever !
Joss has the second best ERA of all time !
Joss has the fourth best ERA + of any HOF starting pitcher !
Joss has the best control via BB/9, of any 20th century pitcher !
Joss has the second best shutout percentage of any HOF hurler.
Joss has an outstanding .626 W-L %.

If those are not enough figures to deserve serious HOF consideration, such is life, and thank goodness for the real HOF selection process.

bambambaseball

06-25-2009, 08:57 PM

Freakshow

06-25-2009, 09:35 PM

Joss' time era was NOT 1899 to 1913.

It was actually 1902 though part of 1910.

I believe none of the listed pitchers had an untimely career ending event, a death, at the young, prime of life age, of 31 either, I would guess that had some effect on his relatively lesser compile stats.Defining "era" is rather subjective, of course. In baseball, rarely would it be a period as short as nine years.

Don't like eras? Fine, look at it this way: Compare pitchers' "recorded official MLB facts".

Most career wins among pitchers whose careers significantly coincided with Joss':
Cnt Player W W-L% DbYr LstY IP Ages
+----+-----------------+---+-----+----+----+------+-----+
1 Cy Young 511 .618 1890 1911 7354.2 23-44
2 Christy Mathewson 373 .665 1900 1916 4780.2 19-35
3 Kid Nichols 361 .634 1890 1906 5056.1 20-36
4 Eddie Plank 326 .627 1901 1917 4495.2 25-41
5 Vic Willis 249 .548 1898 1910 3996 22-34
6 Joe McGinnity 246 .634 1899 1908 3441.1 28-37
7 Jack Powell 245 .491 1897 1912 4389 22-37
8 Mordecai Brown 239 .648 1903 1916 3172.1 26-39
9 Clark Griffith 237 .619 1891 1914 3385.2 21-44
10 George Mullin 228 .538 1902 1915 3686.2 21-34
11 Chief Bender 212 .625 1903 1925 3017 19-41
12 Eddie Cicotte 208 .583 1905 1920 3223.1 21-36
13 Al Orth 204 .519 1895 1909 3354.2 22-36
14 Jack Chesbro 198 .600 1899 1909 2896.2 25-35
15 Jesse Tannehill 197 .629 1894 1911 2750.1 19-36
16 Ed Walsh 195 .607 1904 1917 2964.1 23-36
17 Babe Adams 194 .581 1906 1926 2995.1 24-44
18 Sam Leever 194 .660 1898 1910 2660.2 26-38
19 Rube Waddell 193 .574 1897 1910 2961.1 20-33
20 Doc White 189 .548 1901 1913 3041 22-34
21 Deacon Phillippe 189 .634 1899 1911 2607 27-39
22 Bill Donovan 186 .572 1898 1918 2964.2 21-41
23 Red Ames 183 .523 1903 1919 3198 20-36
24 Ed Reulbach 182 .632 1905 1917 2632.1 22-34
25 Chick Fraser 175 .452 1896 1909 3356 22-35
26 Bill Dinneen 170 .490 1898 1909 3074.2 22-33
27 Red Donahue 164 .484 1893 1906 2966.1 20-33
28 Earl Moore 162 .513 1901 1914 2776 21-34
29 Addie Joss 160 .623 1902 1910 2327 22-30 OK, here's one where Joss is SURE to dominate. Let's look only at wins for the exact ages that Joss pitched, from 22-30. And we'll only look at old time pitchers who pitched significantly after the modern pitching distance was established in 1893.

Most wins age 22-30, 1889-1939:
Cnt Player W W-L% IP From To
+----+-----------------+---+-----+------+----+----+
1 Christy Mathewson 255 .724 2945.2 1903 1911
2 Kid Nichols 253 .659 3367.2 1892 1900
3 Walter Johnson 245 .655 3137.1 1910 1918
4 Cy Young 216 .639 2973.1 1890 1897
5 Jack Stivetts 191 .612 2658 1890 1898
6 Pete Alexander 190 .683 2492 1911 1917
7 George Mullin 183 .567 2855.2 1903 1911
8 Vic Willis 174 .521 2897 1898 1906
9 Jesse Tannehill 174 .652 2292 1897 1905
10 Gus Weyhing 172 .566 2643.1 1889 1896
11 Wes Ferrell 169 .599 2326 1930 1938
12 Jack Powell 167 .530 2822 1897 1905
13 Lefty Gomez 163 .660 2174.2 1931 1939
14 Addie Joss 160 .623 2327 1902 1910
15 Rube Waddell 160 .586 2408.1 1899 1907
16 Sadie McMahon 159 .580 2392 1890 1897
17 Nig Cuppy 158 .632 2191 1892 1900
18 Wilbur Cooper 157 .561 2504.2 1914 1922
19 Frank Dwyer 156 .540 2459.1 1890 1898
20 Ed Walsh 155 .605 2380.2 1904 1911 This doesn't show Joss as very dominant. Half of the pitchers on this list aren't even in the Hall.

jaxxr

06-26-2009, 04:42 AM

I believe most feel "Wins" is not among the better ways to evaluate a pitcher, however you are certainly entitled to think they are more telling than WHIP, ERA, ERA +, Etc.

The assumption that, at the age of 31, a pitcher MUST start to decline in performance, is probably not correct, but regardless, there is no way to be sure, and it is speculation or "what if" conjecture.

I can easily see most posters herein do not assess Joss" accomplishments, in a manner similar to mine, or similar to Cooperstown's, and of course debate/disagreement/ is fine and a fact of life. Perhaps I place too much importance on the final and actual recorded MLB stat numbers, and their ranks, and their historical significance of being among the very best ever.

Freakshow

06-26-2009, 07:05 AM

Say, that's an interesting question you raise: which is a better indicator to hall of fame electors, Wins or WHIP?

Among the top 40 eligible pitchers in WHIP (2300+ IP since 1893), how many are not in the HOF? 15
Cnt Player WHIP LstY DbYr IP From To
+----+-----------------+-----+----+----+------+----+----+
6 Babe Adams 1.092 1926 1906 2995.1 1906 1926
9 Deacon Phillippe 1.105 1911 1899 2607 1899 1911
15 Doc White 1.122 1913 1901 3041 1901 1913
17 Bret Saberhagen 1.141 2001 1984 2562.2 1984 2001
18 Sam Leever 1.141 1910 1898 2660.2 1898 1910
21 Ed Reulbach 1.143 1917 1905 2632.1 1905 1917
24 Eddie Cicotte 1.155 1920 1905 3223.1 1905 1920
28 Slim Sallee 1.170 1921 1908 2821.2 1908 1921
29 Nap Rucker 1.175 1916 1907 2375.1 1907 1916
30 Bob Ewing 1.178 1912 1902 2301 1902 1912
31 Jack Taylor 1.178 1907 1898 2617 1898 1907
35 John Candelaria 1.184 1993 1975 2525.2 1975 1993
36 Ron Guidry 1.184 1988 1975 2392 1975 1988
37 Jesse Tannehill 1.187 1911 1894 2750.1 1894 1911
40 Claude Hendrix 1.189 1920 1911 2371.1 1911 1920
42 Mike Cuellar 1.197 1977 1959 2808 1959 1977
43 Bert Blyleven 1.198 1992 1970 4970 1970 1992
44 Luis Tiant 1.199 1982 1964 3486.1 1964 1982
45 Hippo Vaughn 1.201 1921 1908 2730 1908 1921
46 Carl Mays 1.207 1929 1915 3021.1 1915 1929
48 Jeff Pfeffer 1.210 1924 1911 2407.1 1911 1924
49 Harry Howell 1.212 1910 1898 2567.2 1898 1910
50 Ron Reed 1.214 1984 1966 2477.2 1966 1984
How many of the top 40 in wins have not been elected? 9
Cnt Player W LstY DbYr IP From To
+----+-----------------+---+----+----+------+----+----+
14 Tommy John 288 1989 1963 4710.1 1963 1989
15 Bert Blyleven 287 1992 1970 4970 1970 1992
18 Jim Kaat 283 1983 1959 4530.1 1959 1983
25 Jack Morris 254 1994 1977 3824 1977 1994
30 Jack Quinn 247 1933 1909 3920.1 1909 1933
32 Dennis Martinez 245 1998 1976 3999.2 1976 1998
33 Jack Powell 245 1912 1897 4389 1897 1912
35 Frank Tanana 240 1993 1973 4188.1 1973 1993
40 Luis Tiant 229 1982 1964 3486.1 1964 1982
41 Sam Jones 229 1935 1914 3883 1914 1935
42 George Mullin 228 1915 1902 3686.2 1902 1915
45 Mel Harder 223 1947 1928 3426.1 1928 1947
46 Paul Derringer 223 1945 1931 3645 1931 1945
47 Jerry Koosman 222 1985 1967 3839.1 1967 1985
48 Hooks Dauss 222 1926 1912 3390.2 1912 1926
49 Joe Niekro 221 1988 1967 3584 1967 1988
50 Jerry Reuss 220 1990 1969 3669.2 1969 1990 Thus, if we are to "assess Joss' accomplishments, in a manner similar to ... Cooperstown's" we would consider their career wins as more important than their career WHIP.

jalbright

06-26-2009, 08:35 AM

We have one person who hasn't voted in one of the two elections he voted in last time (Paul Wendt, who has yet to submit his player ballot), and five others who voted in last election and haven't yet submitted ballots in any of the elections they participated in last time: AG2004, BlueBlood, J W, Sockeye and Tiboreau. On Monday morning, I'll email a reminder to those in the named six who haven't voted by then.

jaxxr

06-26-2009, 09:01 AM

I am unaware if Cooperstown uses one in preference to the other,
my comment was meant to relate to my assumption, of your own personal rate methods, placing a greater emphasis on wins, rather other stats, like ERA +, for instance.

I would hope they (Coopertown ) evaluate a player's entire statistical base, character, and place in the record books, with good judgement.

They have selected the pitcher with the most wins, and they have selected the pitcher with the best WHIP, seems very proper and logical.

Freakshow

06-26-2009, 09:43 AM

I am unaware if Cooperstown uses one in preference to the other,Well, not consciously. But I have demonstrated their preference for Wins as being more important than WHIP.
my comment was meant to relate to my assumption, of your own personal rate methods, placing a greater emphasis on wins, rather other stats, like ERA +, for instance.Not my "personal rate methods". In post #39 I put up a chart showing the leaders in wins for a short, 15-year era that included Joss' entire career and partial careers for most of the others. This was to offer a balance to your approach of relying entirely on rate stats. Then I offered a brief take on Joss' case.
I would hope they (Coopertown ) evaluate a player's entire statistical base, character, and place in the record books, with good judgement.I would also hope that; perhaps someday they will. However, I believe it's very likely that none of the men that elected Joss to the HOF cared about his WHIP, or even knew what the acronym means.

jaxxr

06-26-2009, 01:18 PM

However, I believe it's very likely that none of the men that elected Joss to the HOF cared about his WHIP, or even knew what the acronym means.

That's an interesting perspective, perhaps partially correct.

I am quite sure in 1978 professional baseball writers knew about walks per 9 innings, and hits per nine innings, and they certainly could tell a pitcher who gives up very few of either or both, was likely to be quite good. The concept or result of the WHIP stat, was certainly considered.

However,
the point that they did not use a "formal" WHIP stat in 1978 might be very possible.
The first Bill James Abstract was printed in 1977, other earlier stat fellows did use informal combinations of stats, similar to the concept in WHIP, to evaluate players.
It would be interesting to know when someone realized the combo stat of WHIP was helpful in pitcher evaluation, and when MLB officially made it one their stats. It may well have been after 1978.

Tiboreau

06-28-2009, 10:49 PM

1. Martin Dihigo
2. Jud Wilson
3. Ted Lyons
4. Elmer Flick
5. Dazzy Vance
6. Willie Foster
7. Home Run Johnson
8. Red Ruffing
9. Pete Hill
10. Heinie Groh
11. Hughie Jennings
12. Willie Keeler

Paul Wendt

06-29-2009, 07:15 AM

[Evidently the forum software does not approve the uppercase acronym.]

... the point that they did not use a "formal" WHIP stat in 1978 might be very possible.

The first Bill James Abstract was printed in 1977, other earlier stat fellows did use informal combinations of stats, similar to the concept in WHIP, to evaluate players.

It would be interesting to know when someone realized the combo stat of WHIP was helpful in pitcher evaluation, and when MLB officially made it one their stats. It may well have been after 1978.
Is it an official statistic today?

IIRC, WHIP in concept and in name was invented for fantasy baseball, perhaps the original rotisserie league. It doesn't make any conceptual sense to sum bases on balls and base hits (BB+H) but omit bases on hit by pitch (HP). I understand they did that because HP was not widely published and the point was convenient entertainment rather than sabrmetrics.

IIRC, USA Today put performance data on today's starting pitchers in the daily newspaper, and put WHIP in the data, in order to meet the market of fantasy baseball players. I have no confirmation but I recall that it was commonplace perhaps 15 years ago to thank USA Today, and fantasy baseball in turn, for the expansion of current season baseball statistics in local newspapers such as the Boston Globe and Boston Herald.

In the new millenium, some print and web newspapers provide similar data for NBA basketball and NFL football. For baseball 20 years ago and for the other sports recently, it seems to me that the engine of growth is fantasy play, which should be called "fantasy general manager", rather than betting on the outcomes or scores of games, not to mention statistical analysis.

Sockeye

06-29-2009, 10:12 AM

1. Ruffing , Red
2. Lyons , Ted
3. Jackson , Joe
4. Wheat , Zack
5. Vance , Dazzy
6. Keeler , Willie
7. Rixey , Eppa
8. Magee , Sherry
9. Galvin , Pud
10. Coveleski , Stan
11. Faber , Red
12. Johnson , Bob

1. Cartwright , A
2. Reach , A. J.
3. Commiskey , C
4. Landis , K
5. Hanlon , Ned

AG2004

06-29-2009, 11:01 AM

My primary reason for bumping up Shoriki to #1 is that his pioneering role in Japanese baseball, to me, trumps the three team builders (Selee, Wilkinson, Griffith) you mentioned above and was also more significant an achievement than the other 4 I am voting for. Those 3 are currently sitting at #1, 2, 3 in my queue and at least 1 of them will be on my ballot next year barring a strong new class of contributors or one of my 5 not getting elected this go around.

Given the lack of statistical information when it comes to contributors and how much of a variance we see in the rage of their contributions, I find pioneers who were instrumental in something huge, like establishing professional baseball in a major baseball nation more significant than the Tom Connoly and AJ Reach's of the world.

I wouldn't say Japan is a major baseball nation -- Cuba's much better. The Japanese league added six teams after last season to make fifteen clubs in all, then split into two different leagues this past year. The addition of six clubs to a nine-team league would seem to be some type of desperation move to keep the competition afloat. Although no teams have folded in the five seasons since the war, rumor has it that the Nishitetsu Clippers and the Nishi-Nippon Pirates may merge for next season. I don't know how stable the league is. The fact that more than half of the titles in the competition's history have been won by one team (Tokyo Kyojin/Yomiuri Giants) doesn't help.

I'm taking a wait-and-see approach. If the competition is still around in twenty years -- that will take us to 1970 -- and it produces first-class players, then Shoriki will have a solid case. I think it's too early to support him now, though.

jjpm74

06-29-2009, 11:14 AM

I wouldn't say Japan is a major baseball nation -- Cuba's much better. The Japanese league added six teams after last season to make fifteen clubs in all, then split into two different leagues this past year. The addition of six clubs to a nine-team league would seem to be some type of desperation move to keep the competition afloat. Although no teams have folded in the five seasons since the war, rumor has it that the Nishitetsu Clippers and the Nishi-Nippon Pirates may merge for next season. I don't know how stable the league is. The fact that more than half of the titles in the competition's history have been won by one team (Tokyo Kyojin/Yomiuri Giants) doesn't help.

I'm taking a wait-and-see approach. If the competition is still around in twenty years -- that will take us to 1970 -- and it produces first-class players, then Shoriki will have a solid case. I think it's too early to support him now, though.

Well put, but I think you're getting projects confused, AG. In this particular project we are not forgetting about future events. Only disregarding things that the contributor himself may not have done yet as of the year of the election. There's no denying from a 2009 perspective the impact baseball has had on Japanese culture nor its popularity and Shoriki's role in establishing professional baseball in Japan is paramount to that success. Since Shoriki's achievement already transpired by 1950, there's no reason to wait 20 elections to consider his candidacy unless the person waiting has a queue of 20 reasonable candidates from the current master list of eligible candidates who they feel is more deserving.

Paul Wendt

06-29-2009, 11:18 AM

The author of "Fantasy baseball" at Wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fantasy_baseball) essentially agrees with my recollection #56. (The author cites a paper on file there. I am not the author of the entry or the paper.)

from "fantasy baseball"
Rotisserie league baseball proved to be hugely popular, even in the 1980s when full statistics and accurate reporting were often hard to come by. The traditional statistics used in early Rotisserie leagues were often chosen because they were easy to compile from newspaper box scores and then from weekly information published in USA Today. [Inventor Dan] Okrent, based on discussions with colleagues at USA Today, credits Rotisserie league baseball with much of the early success of USA Today, since the paper provided much more detailed box scores than most competitors and eventually even created a special paper, Baseball Weekly, that almost exclusively contained statistics and box scores. Local papers soon caught up with USA Today's expanded coverage.

from "Walks plus hits per inning pitched" at Wikipedia
WHIP is one of the few sabermetric statistics to enter mainstream baseball usage. (On-base plus slugging, or OPS, a comparable measurement of the ability of a hitter, is another example.) It is one of the most commonly used statistics in fantasy baseball, and is standard in fantasy leagues that employ 4×4, 5×5, and 6×6 formats.

The entry on fantasy baseball does not credit rotisserie with inventing WHIP, one of eight measures in the scoring system for the original league. Perhaps it was already in sabrmetric use. Palmer, James, and Cramer established the Statistical Analysis Committee at SABR in 1974 and James soon coined or disseminated the term "sabrmetrics" in honor of the society.

AG2004

06-29-2009, 01:49 PM

Joss has considerable stat excellence,

Win Shares is one of many different formula/combination stats available, if one feels it is the absolute ultimate, and outweighs having the finest WHIP in the entire history of MLB, is more significant than being the second best pitcher ever via ERA, and tell more about pitching than BB/9, where Joss is best among 20th century hurlers, plus his fine quality in many other important stats, including W-L pct. ,...so be it.

Perhaps just a use of Win Shares, once the proper formula and/or author is selected, would vastly quicken, or possibly even eliminate the need for these elections.

I, evidently incorrectly, assumed the evaluation of a pitcher was largely dependent on his preventing runs, as the result of a baseball game is actually determined by such, and foolishly assumed one the best ever at that, with the extremely unusual circumstance of a death at the age of 31, might deserve HOF consideration.

A pitcher cannot prevent any runs while he's sitting on the bench. Joss may have been one of the best ever at preventing runs while he was actually on the mound, but his relative lack of innings pitched worked to lower the number of runs he actually prevented. While Joss was on the bench, some pitcher who was worse had to go out on the mound.

Rate stats don't tell us anything about playing time; to judge a player, however, we need to know how often he played. A platoon player is not as valuable as an everyday starter.

The win shares method takes playing time, or lack thereof, into account. So how does Joss compare with his contemporaries on a season-by-season basis?

1905 - 7th among AL pitchers; 10th among major leaguers.
1906 - 6th in the AL; 11th in MLB.
1907 - 4th in the AL; 8th in MLB.
1908 - 2nd in the AL; 3rd in MLB.
1909 - 7th in the AL; 16th in MLB.

Let's compare this to Hippo Vaughn's peak.
1916 - 3rd in the NL; 7th in MLB.
1917 - 2nd in the NL; 8th in MLB.
1918 - 1st in the NL; 4th in MLB.
1919 - 1st in the NL; 2nd in MLB.
1920 - 5th in the NL; 12th in MLB.

Baseball Magazine started to name all-league and all-America teams in 1908. Joss was among the five all-AL pitchers in 1908, but he wasn't among the five all-American pitchers. Joss wasn't even among the five all-AL pitchers in 1909.

From 1915 to 1919, the magazine named just two pitchers to its all-league and all-America teams. Hippo Vaughn made the all-American and all-NL teams in both 1918 and 1919. (Technically, there were three pitchers on the all-American team in 1918; the addition came because Babe Ruth switched positions in mid-season.)

The win shares system doesn't have Joss as a standout pitcher during his peak. Baseball Magazine didn't rate Joss that highly once it started its all-America teams in 1908. If Joss had made two all-American teams, or if he had been among the top five pitchers in the AL (according to win shares) more than twice, he would have a better case. If you were to have someone with a short career, but who was the best pitcher in baseball three times in a four-year span (according to both win shares and votes conducted by contemporary observers), then the career wouldn't be a problem.

Unfortunately for Joss, as I see it, all he has going for him are those rate stats. They came during a short career with no decline phase. They aren't enough.

bambambaseball

06-29-2009, 04:53 PM

Addie Joss had nothing in the tank his last year. Even if he didnt die, he wuld have had to move to a different position or retire. Looking at his OPS+, he stunk it up as a hitter so he probably would have retired or played another 2 or 3 years and scraped together another 15 wins and 20-30 losses with a much higher era.

jaxxr

06-29-2009, 08:05 PM

Unfortunately for Joss, as I see it, all he has going for him are those rate stats. They came during a short career with no decline phase. They aren't enough.

I do respect your opinion, or anyone herein, however from the following short list, how high might a pitcher have to rank, as "enough",
to be worthy of HOF consideration, in your view ?

Joss has the best WHIP of any pitcher ever !
Joss has the second best ERA of all time !
Joss has the fourth best ERA + of any HOF starting pitcher !
Joss has the best control via BB/9, of any 20th century pitcher !
Joss has the second best shutout percentage of any HOF hurler.
Joss has an outstanding .626 W-L %.

Freakshow

06-29-2009, 09:17 PM

Joss has an outstanding .626 W-L %.Is .623 (actually) outstanding? Here's the company he's in among non-hall of famers.

Eligible pitchers with highest W-L%, 140+ wins, mainly post-1893 hurlers
Cnt Player W-L% W L DbYr LstY IP
+----+-----------------+-----+---+---+----+----+------+
1 Sam Leever .660 194 100 1898 1910 2660.2
2 Johnny Allen .654 142 75 1932 1944 1950.1
3 Ron Guidry .651 170 91 1975 1988 2392
4 Dwight Gooden .634 194 112 1984 2000 2800.2
5 Deacon Phillippe .634 189 109 1899 1911 2607
6 Ed Reulbach .632 182 106 1905 1917 2632.1
7 Allie Reynolds .630 182 107 1942 1954 2492.1
8 Jesse Tannehill .629 197 116 1894 1911 2750.1
9 Firpo Marberry .627 148 88 1923 1936 2067.1
10 Ray Kremer .627 143 85 1924 1933 1954.2
11 Don Newcombe .623 149 90 1949 1960 2154.2
12 Nig Cuppy .623 162 98 1892 1901 2284.1
13 Carl Mays .622 207 126 1915 1929 3021.1
14 Urban Shocker .615 187 117 1916 1928 2681.2
15 Jimmy Key .614 186 117 1984 1998 2591.2
16 Lon Warneke .613 192 121 1930 1945 2782.1

Paul Wendt

06-30-2009, 07:00 AM

Joss has the best control via BB/9, of any 20th century pitcher !
What about Deacon Phillippe, his successor Babe Adams, and Dan Quisenberry?
--ranks 16, 18, 20 on the career leader board at Baseball-Reference, ahead of #21 Joss

AG2004

06-30-2009, 09:35 AM

I do respect your opinion, or anyone herein, however from the following short list, how high might a pitcher have to rank, as "enough",
to be worthy of HOF consideration, in your view ?

Joss has the best WHIP of any pitcher ever !
Joss has the second best ERA of all time !
Joss has the fourth best ERA + of any HOF starting pitcher !
Joss has the best control via BB/9, of any 20th century pitcher !
Joss has the second best shutout percentage of any HOF hurler.
Joss has an outstanding .626 W-L %.

Babe Adams, who played from 1906 to 1926, had 1.29 BB/9 IP; Joss, 1.41 BB/9 IP. So one of those statements is wrong. Joe Wood had a 146 ERA+, which is higher than Joss, but he's not a ballot contender yet.

As for WHIP? Of the others in the top six, Walsh, Mathewson, Johnson, and Brown had much longer careers, while Ward also had a substantial career at shortstop. Furthermore, Joss pitched only one season before the AL introduced the foul-strike rule (which reduced hits), and died just before the AL introduced its new cork-center ball (which increased hits). His short career happened to fall in the best period in baseball for pitchers.

Rule and equipment changes can affect raw statistics by a substantial amount. If pitchers' WHIP totals were adjusted to reflect the offensive context, where would Joss Fall?

Finally, Joss' record is sufficient for HOF consideration . I considered him. After giving him due consideration, I decided against him.

When we compare pitchers to their peers, Hippo Vaughn's 1916-1920 seasons ranked him higher than Joss' 1905-1909 seasons. One source of the time rated Vaughn higher among his peers than it had rated Joss among his contemporaries. For someone with a career as short as Joss', that's a big problem.

jaxxr

06-30-2009, 05:31 PM

Joss has the best control via BB/9, of any 20th century pitcher !

Sorry, the qualifier "In the HOF" should have been added.
.................................

" If pitchers' WHIP totals were adjusted to reflect the offensive context, where would Joss Fall? "

Not positive, however there is a very similar stat, BR+, which is Base runners allowed per 9 innings, then adjusted in relation to peers. It adds HBP and errors to WHIP.

Walter Johnson, via BR+, is number one among HOF pitchers, with a 123, Addie Joss is second, also with a 123, fractionally less than Walter.

I am still curious, as to how high the ranks must be, for Joss to be a worthy HOFer ?
Being the all time best in one stat, and second best in three, among HOF hurlers, is, apparently, not "enough'", must he be first in everything to allow his shorter innings, ( more than Koufax though ) to be a baseball fever HOFer ?

AG2004

06-30-2009, 09:21 PM

I am still curious, as to how high the ranks must be, for Joss to be a worthy HOFer ?
Being the all time best in one stat, and second best in three, among HOF hurlers, is, apparently, not "enough'", must he be first in everything to allow his shorter innings, ( more than Koufax though ) to be a baseball fever HOFer ?

Two problems.
(1) Joss is not in the Hall of Fame.
(2) Nobody named Koufax has ever played in the major leagues.

---
[The following is out of our 1950 context.]

Koufax led major league pitchers in win shares in 1963, 1965, and 1966. He was the unanimous choice of voters for the Cy Young award for all of those three seasons -- and there weren't separate awards for each league then. Koufax' 139 win shares in his best five consecutive seasons is second for his era, behind Gibson but ahead of Marichal. His 100 win shares in his best three seasons is the best of any pitcher of his time.

In 1961, Koufax was third among NL pitchers in win shares, and tied for sixth among major league pitchers. He was tied for fourth among NL pitchers in win shares, and tied for fifth among MLB's pitchers, in 1964, despite missing over a month of play due to injury. He was named to the All-Star team in six seasons, and deservingly so (he had only 15 win shares in 1962, but he missed two months of play after the All-Star break).

Between 1963 and 1966, Koufax was the best pitcher in the game, according to both win shares and contemporary observers. He has a huge peak, 5.5 All-Star-type seasons, and those three Cy Young awards.

Joss' win share line was 191-88-131. Bill Dinneen's line was 200-81-134. Joss was not even close to having the top peak of his generation. He had just two seasons where he was among the top five pitchers in his league in win shares. His contemporaries didn't have him as one of the top five pitchers of his time.

If the career totals aren't there, then a pitcher needs both a high peak and five or six great seasons. Koufax met those standards, Dizzy Dean met those standards, and, according to the analysts at baseball think factory, Jose Mendez met those standards. Joss didn't meet those standards.

Joss does have the rate stats, but I don't put as much weight on career rate stats as other people do; players; rate stats can go down with continued play, and thus emphasizing them tends to reward those who had quick declines and punish those with gradual declines. They don't tell us about playing time. They tend to overrate platoon players. (Norm Cash does better by rate stats than by win shares. This is because Cash missed so many games, and he missed so many games because teams were reluctant to use him against left-handed pitchers.)

Joss does well in rate stats, but that's basically all he has going for him. When I made my Keltner List for Joss, I just didn't see many positives. He falls short in peak; he falls short in Cy Young Award-candidate type and All-Star-type seasons; he's weak in the ink tests; and, when Baseball Magazine chose its all-America teams in 1908 and 1909, Joss didn't make the top five in the major leagues either year. (1908 was its first all-America team, but 1908 was also Joss' best season.)

If I were to make a Keltner List for Koufax, his only weaknesses would be in career length/value and similarity scores -- and the latter is a function of the former. Jose Mendez did well across the board when I made a Keltner List for him; even if you were to eliminate his time as a shortstop, he would still be good in everything except career value.

jalbright

07-01-2009, 05:19 AM

If we look at Joss' career IP, he has 2327--and every other HOF pitcher from his time had at least 2896.2 (Chesbro), and only one other had less than 3000 (Waddell at 2961). There's no argument Joss' rate stats are excellent, but IMHO, he has to make up what is at least a 25% shortfall in IP. He covers some of that distance, but by no means all of it.

Do you think modern relievers should be rated the same as starters (ignoring the IP)--because that's the logical extreme of focusing solely on rate stats. Somewhere, the IP totals have to count, too.

Paul Wendt

07-01-2009, 10:40 AM

Kid Nichols, Cy Young and Matty;
Eddie Plank, Ed Walsh, and Mordecai Brown.

We elected them all promptly. Probably Plank, Walsh, and Brown were something like two, four, and eight years premature in my judgment. (That's a guess because I haven't looked at the details necessary to make such judgments.)

Griffith, McGinnity, Willis, Waddell, and Joss are decades away from my consideration. I'm not sure I would rank Joss last among them, but I won't be shocked if we elect them all without the influence of my own votes. The leading candidates may be Griffith, Willis, Joss, Dave Parker, Dale Murphy, and Albert Belle while my ballot is choked full of those who half-fill it now. Practically the debate may focus on the short career of Addie Joss v the short career of Bret Saberhagen while I am voting for Bob Caruthers.

--
add:
The mention of Jose Mendez just above prompts to extend my anticipation of future debate about excellent pitchers with short careers. Mendez is eligible now and not yet supported here. I doubt that Wes Ferrell or Dizzy Dean will be elected promptly. Sandy Koufax will have no trouble but it won't surprise me if this six-pack is all on the board when he arrives around 1980.
: Caruthers, Joss, Mendez, Ferrell, Dean, Koufax (not yet Saberhagen)

Some of them have or will have strong latent support but the backlog will never disappear. Players who are on the ballot now will continue to be among the leaders, and occasionally elected, as long as the project continues. Expansion of the major leagues will not bring easily electable candidates to the ballot at a rate of three per year.

My expectation in the last paragraph is based on experience at the Hall of Merit. We will not replicate that project here but they are similar in some ways including the final rate of election, three annually. Having started only in 1936, we have a bigger backlog here in 1950. That supports my expectations with some buffer against other differences.

jalbright

07-02-2009, 08:35 AM

As I post, just under 37 1/2 hours until the end of this election.

J W

07-02-2009, 06:54 PM

Players

1. Joe Jackson
2. Martin Dihigo
3. Biz Mackey
4. Jud Wilson
5. Frank Grant
6. George Sisler
7. Rube Waddell
8. Sherry Magee
9. Stan Coveleski
10. Charley Radbourn
11. Dazzy Vance
12. Pie Traynor

Contributors

1. Alexander Cartwright
2. Ned Hanlon
3. Alfred Spink
4. Ed Bolden
5. Tom Connolly

Paul Wendt

07-02-2009, 09:32 PM

JW,
I suppose that grey tone marks people who are new to your ballot.

Why Bolden ahead of Taylor, Posey, and Wilkinson?

jalbright

07-03-2009, 10:09 AM

Bolden's a favorite of mine--on the league level, about the equivalent of Rube Foster (though not as a player or manager, of course). Here's something I wrote about him:

Ed Bolden--Negro League contributor

From pages 91-92 in Riley's Biographical Encyclopedia of the Negro Leagues:

A gentlemanly little man, he worked in the Philadelphia post office, and was the owner of the two best-known Negro League teams in the Philadelphia area, the Hilldale Daisies and the Philadelphia Stars. A shy, quiet and modest man who preferred working in the background instead of in the spotlight, [he] is best known as the owner of the Hilldale team that won the first three Eastern Colored League championships in 1923-1925 and the 1925 [Negro] World Series over the Kansas City Monarchs. As the founder of the Eastern Colored League, he was responsible for player raids by eastern teams on the more established Negro National League.

He took over operations for [Hilldale] in 1916, when [it] was a semipro team. The team attained [Negro] major league status the following season and wond a championship in 1921; then came the Eastern Colored League and three straight pennants. He suffered a nervous breakdown in 1927, and without his leadership the league folded the following spring.

After he recovered, . . . he organized the Philadelphia Stars . . . . Bolden again raided other clubs for players, and entered the Negro National League in 1934, winning the pennant in the first season in the league. In the championship the team defeated the Chicago American Giants. He remained at the head of the Stars until his death in 1950.

In addition to contributions to black baseball as a team executive, he also served as an officer in three different leagues: the Eastern Colored League, the American Negro League and the Negro National League.

All this, while holding down a full-time job with the USPS to pay his bills. Unfortunately, I think his case won't be ripe for a while yet, but I'm more than willing to be proven wrong about that.

AG2004

07-03-2009, 07:18 PM

My ballot

PLAYERS
1. Martin Dihigo
2. Jud Wilson
3. Joe Start
4. Home Run Johnson
5. Hoss Radbourn
6. Dickey Pearce
7. Joe McGinnity
8. Sherry Magee
9. Willie Foster
10. Dazzy Vance
11. Jimmy Collins
12. Elmer Flick

CONTRIBUTORS
1. Kenesaw Mountain Landis
2. Al Reach
3. J.L. Wilkinson
4. Dickey Pearce
5. Frank Selee

[OOC - From a 2009 perspective, the top contributor is Matsutaro Shoriki. But in 1950, Japanese baseball hasn't reached a state where I can justify voting for him.]

Paul Wendt

07-03-2009, 08:45 PM

About two dozen players seem roughly equal to me. With some reevaluation in progress, I have bumped Joe Start ahead of the major league thirdbasemen and I have slipped pitchers Vance and Lyons into the middle of my ballot ahead of Start. They are all among the two dozen.

1 Dihigo
2 Wilson J
3 JOHNSON G
4 Radbourn
5 Vance
6 Lyons T
7 Gore
8 Start
9 Groh
10 Colllins J
11 McPhee
12 Bennett

AstrosFan

07-04-2009, 09:14 AM

jalbright

07-04-2009, 11:48 AM

1) Jud Wilson
2) Sherry Magee
3) Zack Wheat
4) Jimmy Collins
5) Martin Dihigo
6) Dazzy Vance
7) Rube Waddell
8) Cool Papa Bell
9) Ted Lyons
10) Harry Stovey
11) Willie Foster
12) Red Ruffing

1) Cartwright
2) Hanlon
3) Landis
4) Posey
5) Reach

Sorry we missed you for this election (11 1/4 hours late), but I hope you'll join us for the next one. FWIW, none of the winners would have changed if we counted your vote.

jalbright

07-04-2009, 11:54 AM

We had 18 voters in the player election, and have inducted Martin Dihigo, Dazzy Vance and Jud Wilson. The complete official results:

Player……………… votes points
Dihigo , Martin 16 180
Wilson, Jud 13 103
Vance , Dazzy 14 88
Sisler , George 12 86
Magee , Sherry 12 76
Collins , Jimmy 10 73
Radbourn , C 9 55
Wheat , Zack 9 55
Jackson , Joe 5 53
Lyons , Ted 8 50
Keeler , Willie 6 37
Start , Joe 5 35
Waddell , Rube 7 31
Bell, CP 6 30
Bennett , C 4 29
Ruffing , Red 4 29
Traynor , Pie 6 26
Groh , Heinie 4 25
Johnson , HR 3 25
Coveleski , S 4 24
Foster, Willie 6 23
Sutton , Ezra 3 21
Stovey , Harry 3 20
McPhee , Bid 4 17
Grant , Frank 3 15
Klein, Chuck 2 14
Mackey, Biz 2 14
Caruthers , B 2 13
Maranville , R 2 13
Terry , Bill 3 13
Flick , Elmer 4 12
McGinnity , Joe 3 12
Thompson , S 1 12
Joss , Addie 1 11
Pearce , Dickey 2 11
Carey , Max 1 9
Bresnahan , R 2 8
Chance , Frank 1 8
Hill , Pete…….. 2 7
Gore , George 1 6
Rixey , Eppa 1 6
Tinker, Joe 1 5
Berger , Wally 1 4
Evers , Johnny 1 4
Faber , Red 2 4
Galvin , Pud 1 4
Browning , Pete 1 3
Duffy , Hugh 1 2
Jennings , H 1 2
Johnson , Bob 1 1

On the contributor side, we inducted A. J. Reach in an election with 15 ballots cast. The official results:

contributor votes points
Reach , A. J. 11 35
Commiskey , C 10 30
Cartwright , A 6 29
Landis , K 8 28
Hanlon , Ned 8 21
Posey, Cum 6 16
Spink, Albert 5 16
Taylor , C. I. 2 8
Pearce, Dickey 2 6
Shoriki, M 2 6
Caylor , O. P. 1 5
Selee , Frank 3 5
Dunn , Jack 1 4
Wilkinson, JL 2 4
Doubleday , A 1 3
Bolden, Ed 1 2
Chance , Frank 1 2
Huggins , M 2 2
Conlan , C 1 1
Connolly , Tom 1 1
Griffith , C 1 1

Paul Wendt

07-04-2009, 01:01 PM

moved to 1951

Paul Wendt

08-05-2009, 11:12 AM

Five weeks ago I quoted jaxxr and replied (blue is new emphasis):
>>[Originally Posted by jaxxr]
... the point that they did not use a "formal" WHIP stat in 1978 might be very possible.

The first Bill James Abstract was printed in 1977, other earlier stat fellows did use informal combinations of stats, similar to the concept in WHIP, to evaluate players.

It would be interesting to know when someone realized the combo stat of WHIP was helpful in pitcher evaluation, and when MLB officially made it one their stats. It may well have been after 1978.
<<

[Paul Wendt:]
Is it an official statistic today?

IIRC, WHIP in concept and in name was invented for fantasy baseball, perhaps the original rotisserie league. It doesn't make any conceptual sense to sum bases on balls and base hits (BB+H) but omit bases on hit by pitch (HP). I understand they did that because HP was not widely published and the point was convenient entertainment rather than sabrmetrics.

IIRC, USA Today put performance data on today's starting pitchers in the daily newspaper, and put WHIP in the data, in order to meet the market of fantasy baseball players. I have no confirmation but I recall that it was commonplace perhaps 15 years ago to thank USA Today, and fantasy baseball in turn, for the expansion of current season baseball statistics in local newspapers such as the Boston Globe and Boston Herald.

In the new millenium, some print and web newspapers provide similar data for NBA basketball and NFL football. For baseball 20 years ago and for the other sports recently, it seems to me that the engine of growth is fantasy play, which should be called "fantasy general manager", rather than betting on the outcomes or scores of games, not to mention statistical analysis.

From Monday's Wall Street Journal (2009-0803)
Dan Okrent Invented WHIP Statistic, Fantasy Baseball (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204619004574318690805089868.html) (in 1979)
>>
The Secret History of WHIP
Dan Okrent is credited as the inventor of fantasy baseball, but few know he also came up with one of baseball’s most widely-used stats.
By NANDO DI FINO

The story of how Dan Okrent invented Rotisserie baseball has been told a thousand times. ... this is a tale about how Dan Okrent is not recognized as the inventor of a massively popular everyday statistic: the IPRAT, or WHIP.

... [In 1979]
The rules were crafted from stats that Mr. Okrent says were “readily available” in the box scores.

He studied the standings of the National League’s Eastern Division from 1976 to 1979 and discovered that eight categories emerged as having the strongest correlation to their division finishes. Seven had previously existed: runs batted in, batting average, stolen bases, home runs, pitcher wins, ERA and saves.

And then there was IPRAT.
...
<<