How good are Lincecum and Cain?

[Sirmudgeon]

How well have Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum been this year? Cain is 9-1, Lincecum is 6-1 and throwing well today against the Angels. They both have ERAs under 3.00, which is necessary given the lineups behind them. Consider, if you will, these factors:

1. They let the best fielding SS this side of Ozzie Smith go (Omar is hitting and fielding in Texas just about like he has done for the last 15 years).

2. They have a cleanup hitter named Bengie. Sorry, but there ought be a rule against such. Benji was a small yappy dog, for Pete's sake.

3. Molina is a good catcher, a good hitter, and at best a 5 or 6 spot guy. Too much pressure. By most accounts, he's a good guy, too, but gee whiz, give him and his pitching staff a break. He's the guy that is helping the young pitchers develop, now you ask him to hit cleanup? No fair. Guys like Sanchez and Wilson would be better served by having most of his attention, not to mention Zito.

4. The Giants need a stud in the 4 hole. Bring back Bonds. I reckon he could still hit .320 with 40 HRs, and scare the living bejeezus out of opposing hurlers. Sure, he used PEDs, so did almost everyone else of that era. He just used them more effectively than most. Sure, he's a jerk and an ignoramus in the clubhouse. Get him his own little room, with his recliner, I would suggest a seldom-used broom closet or somesuch. Or, an even more novel approach, a two-man suite with Randy Johnson. And a tape recorder.

5. Perhaps it's just me that thinks that your 1B should be a power hitter. And that your team ought provide your ace(s) with a few runs per game. The Giants have had some stud pitchers, from Matthewson to Hubbel to Marichal, Lincecum has a shot at it, he needs some runs to work with. Same with Cain, who has a decent catcher to grow with, get his under-.500 winning percentage turned around, the guy shows up every turn in the rotation (unlike, say, Zambrano).

The Giants have some fun guys to watch. Yet they are headed for ten years of Washington Nationals latitude, several really good players and little management support. Where did all these front-office idiots come from? This can't be that hard, especially for a franchise with huge local support, with an amazing history featuring Terry and Mays and McCovey and the Bonds duo, it's a little sad.

The previous rant aside, it's a joy to watch Cain and Lincecum pitch this year.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

The Giants have some fun guys to watch. Yet they are headed for ten years of Washington Nationals latitude, several really good players and little management support. Where did all these front-office idiots come from? This can't be that hard, especially for a franchise with huge local support, with an amazing history featuring Terry and Mays and McCovey and the Bonds duo, it's a little sad.

The previous rant aside, it's a joy to watch Cain and Lincecum pitch this year.

If you think this then you probably don't follow the Giants too closely. The Giants have loads of minor league talent coming up soon. Baseball America ranked the Giants farm system #5 in the 2009 Baseball America Prospects book. Baseball America was impressed that the Giants have turned around their minor league system by spending top dollar on the draft and signing top talent out of the Dominican Republic. The following prospects will be major force in the Giants rise to the top over the next few years.

Madison Bumgarner, LHP
Tim Alderson, RHP
Buster Posey, C
Thomas Neal, LF
Angel Villalona, 1B
Brandon Crawford, SS

That doesn't even include Kevin Puceta, Roger Kieschnick, Nick Noonan and several others. When the Giants signed Villalona in 2007 they set a franchise record for an international payer with a $2.1 million signing. The Giants broke that record again in '08 when they signed Rafael Rodriguez for a record $2.55 million contract. Some are comparing Rodriguez to a young Dave Winfield.

Obviously not all these prospects will pan out but it clearly shows that for the first time since the 1980's the Giants are serious about player development. Pablo Sandoval is easily the Giants best position prospect to reach the majors since Will Clark/Matt Williams. He is the first of many more to come. By 2011 the Giants will be one of the best teams in the majors. And you can quote me on that. :D

[bob]

4. The Giants need a stud in the 4 hole. Bring back Bonds. I reckon he could still hit .320 with 40 HRs, and scare the living bejeezus out of opposing hurlers. Sure, he used PEDs, so did almost everyone else of that era. He just used them more effectively than most. Sure, he's a jerk and an ignoramus in the clubhouse. Get him his own little room, with his recliner, I would suggest a seldom-used broom closet or somesuch. Or, an even more novel approach, a two-man suite with Randy Johnson. And a tape recorder.
I highly doubt a 44 year old one dimensional slugger who hasnt played for 2 years is what the Giants need (and no chance he'll hit .320 with 40 homers) even more so with all the baggage that he brings. The Giants are moving on now, time to forget about Bonds.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Here is how the Giants could potentially stack up in 2011-12

C- Buster Posey
1B- Angel Villalona
2B- Nick Noonan
3B- Pablo Sandoval
SS- Brandon Crawford
LF- Thomas Neal
CF- Aaron Rowand
RF- Nate Schierholtz

SP- Tim Lincecum
SP- Matt Cain
SP- Barry Zito
SP- Tim Alderson
SP- Madison Bumgarner

[Sirmudgeon]

Good ones with the G'ints farm system. I'm with you on Sandoval, he's really good. Still think they ought have kept Vizquel for a year, and have Bonds for one more year. He's a twerp, but he'd give them some pop, put a little fear into opposing pitchers, and I just love the idea of him rooming with Randy Johnson on the road, and living in a broom closet with him at home. I'm a lifelong G'ints fan, now at some length (I live in Portland, OR, by way of Napa, by way of Australia, by way of Mexico), I can only go on what I see on TV and in the papers- the Giants have a couple of really good pitchers, a couple of good hitters, need a veteran stud in the middle of the lineup for a year or so, until their young pitchers get some confidence that they'll be supported.

That said, the comments about the farm system are pretty exciting. I can't wait! Love this site, so much erudition from true fans. Thanks, folks.

[KHenry14]

Barry's going to be kinda busy in court in about a month, so I really doubt he's going to be back anywhere.

Vizquel is basically done. He's a borderline HOFer, but this isn't 1997. He doesn't have the range he used to and he can't hit a lick anymore.

While I'm no big Renteria fan, I'd rather have him than Omar.

But to the thread topic, it's clear than Timmy's no one year wonder. He's the real deal, top of the rotation guy.

Cain on the other hand, while having an All-Star season so far, hasn't shown that he can do it for a whole season. So until he does, I'm not so sure about him.

[yamsi12]

Lincecum is much, much better than Cain.

Cain reminds me of Joe Saunders on the Angels. Had a great year last season, but really was getting lucky. He's very hit-able. Lincecum on the other hand, his stuff is just plain filthy.

[Rich the Giants fan]

Barry's going to be kinda busy in court in about a month, so I really doubt he's going to be back anywhere.

Vizquel is basically done. He's a borderline HOFer, but this isn't 1997. He doesn't have the range he used to and he can't hit a lick anymore.

While I'm no big Renteria fan, I'd rather have him than Omar.

But to the thread topic, it's clear than Timmy's no one year wonder. He's the real deal, top of the rotation guy.

Cain on the other hand, while having an All-Star season so far, hasn't shown that he can do it for a whole season. So until he does, I'm not so sure about him.

Rent-a-wreck has been, and will continue to be, a serious waste of $18 M. Omar should have been signed to act as a mentor for Burriss who should have been the starter at short.

Perhaps you haven't noticed, but he's batting .323/.354/.419 in a limited role as Elvis Andrus' backup. John Dewan's +/- system also has him at +2 for the year in just over 100 innings played at SS.

Instead the Giants went for the veteran guy as always in some vain attempt to grasp an un-reachable ring.

The thing about Cain is, he has not pitched much differently than he has in previous years. His periferals, K/9, BB/9, H/9, WHIP and BAA, are all right around his career norms. He is getting run support now and is winning but it's not as if he hasn't pitched well in previous years.

He's matured and is a better pitcher, but all in all, he's kinda the same pitcher he has been all along.

[KHenry14]

Sorry, Omar hit .222 and .246 the last two years with zero power or RBI's. And he's not the glove man he was. Almost anyone would be better than that. And his performance this year isn't indicative of what he would have done with the Giants in a pitchers park instead of the band box in Arlington.

True, Renteria is way over paid, but at the end of the day, he'll more than double Omar's output.

[Rich the Giants fan]

Sorry, Omar hit .222 and .246 the last two years with zero power or RBI's. And he's not the glove man he was. Almost anyone would be better than that. And his performance this year isn't indicative of what he would have done with the Giants in a pitchers park instead of the band box in Arlington.

True, Renteria is way over paid, but at the end of the day, he'll more than double Omar's output.

But used properly in a reserve role, as I suggested the Giants should have, Omar has done well and he's light-years better defensively than Renteria, who is likely the worst SS in MLB when it comes to going to his right.

The Giants future would have been better served by re-signing Vizquel to be a mentor to Burriss.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Lincecum is much, much better than Cain.
I completely disagree. Cain is extremely talented, with nasty stuff, and Cy Young caliber seasons ahead. That may happen this season.



Cain reminds me of Joe Saunders on the Angels. Had a great year last season, but really was getting lucky.
That comparison doesn't hold water. Saunders debuted in the majors when he was 24. Saunders didn't have 30+ starts in a season until he was 27. Matt Cain debuted in the majors at age 20 and at just age 24 is in his 4th full season.



He's very hit-able. Lincecum on the other hand, his stuff is just plain filthy.

Career H/9
Lincecum 7.5
M. Cain 7.7
Saunders 9.2

So is Cain more like Saunders or Lincecum? I'm not sure the difference of 0.2 H/9 is the difference between being hittable and bing "filthy". The main difference is that for two seasons Cain got horrible support. I've listed this before.



2008
DATE OPP IP H ER BB K
04/01 @LA 5.2 3 0 4 5
04/18 STL 6.2 3 3 3 4
04/23 @SD 7.0 5 1 3 7
05/03 @PHI 7.0 2 2 1 8
05/25 @FLA 6.0 5 2 2 6
05/30 SD 7.0 7 3 1 6
06/14 OAK 7.0 6 3 1 11
07/11 @CHI 7.0 3 0 3 9
07/29 @LAD 7.0 8 1 0 8
08/20 FLA 7.2 5 2 4 4
08/25 COL 6.0 6 3 4 4
09/16 @ARI 7.0 7 2 0 7
09/21 @LA 6.0 5 0 4 4
09/27 LA 7.0 8 2 4 6

94 IP, 2.30 ERA, 85 K, 34 BB, 8.14 K/9, 3.25 BB/9, 1.12 WHIP
__________________________________________________ ________

2007
DATE OPP IP H ER BB K
04/04 SD 6.0 5 3 1 6
04/09 @SD 7.0 1 1 1 6
04/17 @COL 7.0 2 0 3 7
04/28 @ARI 6.0 1 1 4 2
05/19 @OAK 6.1 6 3 4 9
05/25 COL 6.2 4 3 4 5
06/05 @ARI 5.1 8 3 5 4
06/10 @OAK 8.0 5 1 3 8
06/16 @BOS 7.0 3 1 1 3
06/27 SD 7.2 7 2 2 7
07/13 LAD 5.0 7 2 2 2
07/28 FLA 7.0 6 3 2 7
08/03 @SD 7.1 5 2 1 11
08/13 @PIT 7.0 6 2 2 7
09/09 LA 7.0 6 2 1 4
09/15 @SD 6.0 1 1 0 6
09/20 CIN 6.0 7 2 4 7
09/25 SD 7.0 5 2 1 8

119.1 IP, 2.56 ERA, 109 K, 41 BB, 8.22 K/9, 3.16 BB/9, 1.06 WHIP

Combined you get:

32 GS, 213.2 IP, 2.45 ERA, 194 K, 75 BB, 158 H, 8.18 K/8, 3.16 BB/9, 1.09 WHIP.

This is basically a full season's worth of starts. Anyone care to guess what Cain's record was in these 32 starts? Cain got ZERO wins 14 losses and 18 no-decisions. These starts represent 75% of Cain's starts in 2007-08 and none of his wins. That's clearly some extended dominating pitching.

[Sirmudgeon]

I've read all the responses, and must stick with the original attitude, that Cain and Lincecum are getting no support, yet are providing awe-inspiring pitching for a poor-hitting team. One or two hitters, give either one of them 4 runs a game, I reckon they both win 22-24. Just hope the G'ints don't waste the two best guys they've had in a long time, plus an early Sanchez, plus Randy at the end but still pretty bloody good. Also, they gave away Joe Nathan and lucked into Brian Wilson. For gosh sakes, get some hitters in there to support these hot young pitchers. I sure hope that the farm system is as good as you all claim it to be.

As a postscript, it seems that Albert Pujols is a baseball god. I reckon he wins the Triple Crown this year. Also, I would intentionally walk him with the bases loaded. Would love to see him on the G'ints, though it's not going to happen because SF cannot afford to pay the best player in the game, they did that for many years with a lesser character guy, Bonds, whom they then tried to erase from communal conscience. Yeah, Bonds is/was a jerk, yet the G'ints let him loose. Shame on both of them.

In any event, Lincecum and Cain and Wilson have the chance to be the best 3 SF pitchers since Marichal and McDowell and McCormick. It would be nice to see it happen.

[Rich the Giants fan]

Also, they gave away Joe Nathan and lucked into Brian Wilson.
How did they luck into Brian Wilson? They drafted him and have always been high on him. I guess you could say they were lucky to get him so late in the draft, though few teams were interested in a guy who just had TJ surgery.

[Zagi-CRO]

Lincecum+Cain -- > 15:3 and mixed an ERA 2.51

[Honus Wagner Rules]

How did they luck into Brian Wilson? They drafted him and have always been high on him. I guess you could say they were lucky to get him so late in the draft, though few teams were interested in a guy who just had TJ surgery.

I guess I must give Giants' management another kudos for drafting and developing Brian Wilson (Don't get used to this KHenry14!).

[KHenry14]

I guess I must give Giants' management another kudos for drafting and developing Brian Wilson (Don't get used to this KHenry14!).

That's twice in a week you've complemented Sabean Wags! Hell's frozen over and I'm off to buy lottery tickets!

[Zagi-CRO]

Lincecum and Cain - the best 1-2 punch.
Better then Sabathia and Burnett.

[Los Bravos]

I've always been a little skeptical of Cain but Tim is edging into young Maddux territory. The game he pitched last night was truly stellar.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

I've always been a little skeptical of Cain but Tim is edging into young Maddux territory. The game he pitched last night was truly stellar.

Lincecum reminds me more of Pedro Martinez; small pitcher, throws extremely hard, piles up lots of strikeouts, low walks totals, doesn't give up many HRs, etc. I wouldn't be surpised if Lincecum's peak resembles Pedro's peak. Last season Lincecum put up a 167 ERA+. This season he has a 184 ERA+.

[yamsi12]

I've always been a little skeptical of Cain but Tim is edging into young Maddux territory. The game he pitched last night was truly stellar.

agreed. Lincecum is on another level than Cain is.

[Los Bravos]

Lincecum reminds me more of Pedro Martinez; small pitcher, throws extremely hard, piles up lots of strikeouts, low walks totals, doesn't give up many HRs, etc. I can see that, too.

I mentioned Greg because he's the first person I think of when I see a guy drop a complete game shutout on a team while throwing less than 100 pitches, looking like he's in complete control of the whole universe.