Morneau vs. Teixeira

[Jsquared83]

Both guys are off to great starts in '09 and being very similar in age, who do you think, at this point in time, is on a better HOF pace?

[Otis Nixon's Bodyguard]

Better HOF pace? Clearly Teixeira. That MVP trophy is about the only advantage Morneau has at this point.

[SABR Matt]

Better chance to make the HOF? Morneau. Easily.

Teixeira is on the career track of Fred McGriff...although the new YS may help him a LOT with his surface stats. McGriff is a borderline solid hall candidate and so Tex will be...but Morneau is more likely to age well because he does not come to the park with "old man skills" the same way Tex does.

[Ace Venom]

The argument used against players who spent a large amount of time at Coors Field will also be used against players who spent a large amount of time at New Yankee Stadium. Of course, playing in New York and the east coast bias with sports writers will lead to this issue being ignored if he puts up HoF counting stats.

[mwiggins]

Some of it will depend on what they do to NYS this offseason to reduce the HR totals, and how that affects Tex's skewed HR splits from this year. And how well Morneau hits in Target Field. It probably will be more HR friendly than the Dome, but you never know. And keeping Mauer around will be very important to his RBI totals, which will probably be one of his main selling points if he does end up in the HoF discussion.

[SABR Matt]

No WAY is Target more HR friendly than the homerdome. Have you ever tried playing baseball in 35 degree weather for a whole month straight? Twice in the same season? Because that's what it's going to be like in April and late September/October up there Minnesota...it's frickin' COLD to be playing ball outdoors. Target will be a pitcher's park. Bank it.

[mwiggins]

No WAY is Target more HR friendly than the homerdome. Have you ever tried playing baseball in 35 degree weather for a whole month straight? Twice in the same season? Because that's what it's going to be like in April and late September/October up there Minnesota...it's frickin' COLD to be playing ball outdoors. Target will be a pitcher's park. Bank it.

I hope you are correct. Their strike throwing staff would not do well in a bandbox, I don't think.

But it's not quite that cold in Minneapolis during the baseball seasons. You may see a few 35 degree games, but you'll also see some games in the 60's and 70's as well. The average low for early April is about 35, but by the end of April the average low is up in the mid-40's.

[SABR Matt]

Yes...I was being hyperbolous to make a point. I am afterall a meteorologist. :)

The air in Minnesota is not only cold...it's cold and typically quite dry...you can expect the ball to be very heavy there in the early part of the season.

[Francoeurstein]

But it's not quite that cold in Minneapolis during the baseball seasons. You may see a few 35 degree games, but you'll also see some games in the 60's and 70's as well. The average low for early April is about 35, but by the end of April the average low is up in the mid-40's.

Stuff like that makes me glad to be a Southeastener. Brr..

[mwiggins]

Yes...I was being hyperbolous to make a point. I am afterall a meteorologist. :)

The air in Minnesota is not only cold...it's cold and typically quite dry...you can expect the ball to be very heavy there in the early part of the season.

I've heard some of the Twins hitters talk about how they can't wait to get out of the Dome because they consider the Dome air very "dead". That flyballs don't fly as far as in outdoor parks. Though who knows if that will actually be the case.

I think Morneau will miss the turf when his gappers don't sneak through for extra bases quite as often.

[mwiggins]

Stuff like that makes me glad to be a Southeastener. Brr..

Yep. There's already been quite a bit of preemptive b#tching about the lack of a retractable roof. But there's lots of cold weather outdoor parks, so I expect we'll survive. And from what I've heard from numerous first hand sources, the roof in Milwaukee really ruins a lot of the "outdoor baseball" feeling even when it's open.

[KCGHOST]

I'd say Teixeira, but they are both fine players.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

No WAY is Target more HR friendly than the homerdome. Have you ever tried playing baseball in 35 degree weather for a whole month straight? Twice in the same season? Because that's what it's going to be like in April and late September/October up there Minnesota...it's frickin' COLD to be playing ball outdoors. Target will be a pitcher's park. Bank it.

This gets me wondering if old Metropolitan Stadium, the Twins first home ballpark, was a pitcher's park or a hitter's park?

[mwiggins]

This gets me wondering if old Metropolitan Stadium, the Twins first home ballpark, was a pitcher's park or a hitter's park?

It tended to play more as a hitter's park, relative to the rest of the league.

[SABR Matt]

I've heard some of the Twins hitters talk about how they can't wait to get out of the Dome because they consider the Dome air very "dead". That flyballs don't fly as far as in outdoor parks. Though who knows if that will actually be the case.

I think Morneau will miss the turf when his gappers don't sneak through for extra bases quite as often.

Sounds like nonsense to me. The Mariners moved from the Kingdome to an outdoor park and the balls didn't fly nearly as far. It's just as cold in Minny as it is in Seattle...and the "marine air" is not heavier than continental polar air which is drier and more dense.

[SABR Matt]

This gets me wondering if old Metropolitan Stadium, the Twins first home ballpark, was a pitcher's park or a hitter's park?

The Met was a pitcher's park according to PCA.

But it was a large stadium...I don't know how big Target is.

[mwiggins]

The Met was a pitcher's park according to PCA.

But it was a large stadium...I don't know how big Target is.

Target Field is supposed to be roughly the same dimensions as the Dome. Little closer left-center, which should help Mauer. There's supposed to be significantly less foul territory, though.

Target Field

Left Field - 339 feet (103 m)
Left-Center - 377 feet (115 m)
Center Field - 404 feet (123 m)
Right-Center - 367 feet (112 m)
Right Field - 328 feet (100 m)

Met Stadium

Left Field - 343 ft (105 m)
Left-Center - 365 ft (111 m)
Center Field - 402 ft (123 m)
Right-Center - 370 ft (110 m)
Right Field - 330 ft (100 m)

[SABR Matt]

OK...the Met wasn't as big as I remembered...and yet it played as a mild pitcher's park in an era when parks were a lot more pitcher friendly universally.

Target is going to be a pitcher's park. And the Twins' offense is going to SUCK without the ability to bang out 70 trillion infield hits off the turf.

[mwiggins]

OK...the Met wasn't as big as I remembered...and yet it played as a mild pitcher's park in an era when parks were a lot more pitcher friendly universally.

Target is going to be a pitcher's park. And the Twins' offense is going to SUCK without the ability to bang out 70 trillion infield hits off the turf.

The Met's dimensions did vary quite a bit, the ones I posted appear to be from the final years of the park. Between the mid-60's and the mid-70's it was about 430-435ft from LCF to RCF.

[Freakshow]

Players with >34% of career at 1B or DH, >2300 PA, born 1977-on
Cnt Player OPS+ OBP SLG RC BrYr PA From To
+----+-----------------+----+-----+-----+----+----+-----+----+----+
1 Albert Pujols 171 .426 .625 1257 1980 5634 2001 2009
2 Travis Hafner 142 .390 .534 565 1977 3085 2002 2009
3 Ryan Howard 142 .376 .590 518 1979 2695 2004 2009
4 Mark Teixeira 136 .378 .545 761 1980 4179 2003 2009
5 Prince Fielder 134 .376 .539 413 1984 2338 2005 2009
6 Adrian Gonzalez 130 .356 .507 397 1982 2508 2004 2009
7 Justin Morneau 127 .353 .509 522 1981 3276 2003 2009
8 Nick Johnson 125 .399 .456 437 1978 2785 2001 2009
9 Carlos Pena 125 .356 .499 540 1978 3397 2001 2009
10 Kevin Youkilis 123 .392 .483 416 1979 2459 2004 2009
11 Adam LaRoche 114 .340 .489 415 1979 2836 2004 2009
12 Nick Swisher 114 .357 .458 390 1980 2737 2004 2009
13 Lyle Overbay 112 .364 .453 508 1977 3513 2001 2009

[Jsquared83]

Players with >34% of career at 1B or DH, >2300 PA, born 1977-on
Cnt Player OPS+ OBP SLG RC BrYr PA From To
+----+-----------------+----+-----+-----+----+----+-----+----+----+
1 Albert Pujols 171 .426 .625 1257 1980 5634 2001 2009
2 Travis Hafner 142 .390 .534 565 1977 3085 2002 2009
3 Ryan Howard 142 .376 .590 518 1979 2695 2004 2009
4 Mark Teixeira 136 .378 .545 761 1980 4179 2003 2009
5 Prince Fielder 134 .376 .539 413 1984 2338 2005 2009
6 Adrian Gonzalez 130 .356 .507 397 1982 2508 2004 2009
7 Justin Morneau 127 .353 .509 522 1981 3276 2003 2009
8 Nick Johnson 125 .399 .456 437 1978 2785 2001 2009
9 Carlos Pena 125 .356 .499 540 1978 3397 2001 2009
10 Kevin Youkilis 123 .392 .483 416 1979 2459 2004 2009
11 Adam LaRoche 114 .340 .489 415 1979 2836 2004 2009
12 Nick Swisher 114 .357 .458 390 1980 2737 2004 2009
13 Lyle Overbay 112 .364 .453 508 1977 3513 2001 2009

So the argument can be made that after Pujols, Teixeira has the next best chance for the HOF given his age, durability and the ability to play first over Hafner and over Howard's declining ability to take a walk and hit for average. Adrian Gonzalez is just entering his peak years but has no lineup around him (22 HR but only 43 RBI so far this year).

[Jsquared83]

Better chance to make the HOF? Morneau. Easily.

Teixeira is on the career track of Fred McGriff...although the new YS may help him a LOT with his surface stats. McGriff is a borderline solid hall candidate and so Tex will be...but Morneau is more likely to age well because he does not come to the park with "old man skills" the same way Tex does.

Morneau has the MVP which Tex hasn't come close to, yet (possibly this year). Other than that, Tex has much more ability to take a walk, Arod hitting behind him and being a switch hitter is a big help, not to mention a gold glove in the field. Granted, he does not run well, but then again, first basemen aren't paid for their prowess on the basepath.

Overall, I think both have better than 50/50 shots at this point, barring any injury. I feel that Tex has a little more working for him at the time than Morneau.

[mwiggins]

So the argument can be made that after Pujols, Teixeira has the next best chance for the HOF given his age, durability and the ability to play first over Hafner and over Howard's declining ability to take a walk and hit for average. Adrian Gonzalez is just entering his peak years but has no lineup around him (22 HR but only 43 RBI so far this year).

Though if you factor in Petco, Gonzalez has been as good as Teixeira and Morneau for a few years, and he's on par with Pujols this year. As good as Tex and Morneau have been this year, Gonzalez is outplaying them by a significant margin.

[Jsquared83]

Though if you factor in Petco, Gonzalez has been as good as Teixeira and Morneau for a few years, and he's on par with Pujols this year. As good as Tex and Morneau have been this year, Gonzalez is outplaying them by a significant margin.

Gonzalez needs a better lineup and better team in general or he'll continue to fly under the radar to the casual fan.

[SABR Matt]

The Met's dimensions did vary quite a bit, the ones I posted appear to be from the final years of the park. Between the mid-60's and the mid-70's it was about 430-435ft from LCF to RCF.

OK...that's more like what I was remembering.

I still think Target field is going to be a pitcher's park compared to the HomerDome.

[mwiggins]

Gonzalez needs a better lineup and better team in general or he'll continue to fly under the radar to the casual fan.

True. But if you just look at their road production, he's outperforming Pujols by a large margin this season. He's clearly been the best player in the NL this year, but Petco just kills his stats.

[CandlestickBum]

Yes...I was being hyperbolous to make a point. I am afterall a meteorologist. :)

The air in Minnesota is not only cold...it's cold and typically quite dry...you can expect the ball to be very heavy there in the early part of the season.

Okay, I gotta ask, what are the main weather factors that effect a ball's flight?

We hear over and over how west coast AAA ball, with a lot of teams in the desert, are killers of guys with curveballs. Is that from the heat or the dryness?

I've read that the ball travels further in high humidity, but that seems counter intuitive as denser air would *seem* to offer more resistance.

AT&T Park's right field, despite being below average in distance is considered to be hard to reach.

:shrug:

[Jsquared83]

True. But if you just look at their road production, he's outperforming Pujols by a large margin this season. He's clearly been the best player in the NL this year, but Petco just kills his stats.

I still don't quite get why Petco plays so big. It's dimensions are very respectable but not huge. Are there any other wind or weather factors that would keep power #'s down?

The key to Gonzalez's monster year is the K's are down and BB's are waayy up. Imagine if he was still in Texas what his numbers would be this year :bowdown:

[mwiggins]

I still don't quite get why Petco plays so big. It's dimensions are very respectable but not huge. Are there any other wind or weather factors that would keep power #'s down?

The key to Gonzalez's monster year is the K's are down and BB's are waayy up. Imagine if he was still in Texas what his numbers would be this year :bowdown:

I don't know. Other than that really deep part in right center that's over 400 ft (it was 412ft originally) it doesn't appear too big. But Jack Murphy always played as a pitcher's park too, IRRC, and that wasn't too large except to straight-away center.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

True. But if you just look at their road production, he's outperforming Pujols by a large margin this season. He's clearly been the best player in the NL this year, but Petco just kills his stats.

I shudder to think what Gonzales would do in an "average" ball park?! :hyper:

Home: .252/.421/.485, 7 HR, 15 RBI, 17 R, 30 BB, 22 K
Road: .306/.424/.786, 15 HR, 28 RBI, 25 R, 19 BB, 21 K

Gonzales is slugging .301 points higher on the road! :faint: Just doubling Gonzales' road stats you get 30 HRs, 56 RBI, 50 R.

[Jsquared83]

I don't know. Other than that really deep part in right center that's over 400 ft (it was 412ft originally) it doesn't appear too big. But Jack Murphy always played as a pitcher's park too, IRRC, and that wasn't too large except to straight-away center.

I think its something like 402 to the alleys but only 396 in center and 328 and 334 down the lines. Certainly sizable but by no means huge. It's gotta be something to do with the wind patterns or some other intangible.

[SABR Matt]

Okay, I gotta ask, what are the main weather factors that effect a ball's flight?

We hear over and over how west coast AAA ball, with a lot of teams in the desert, are killers of guys with curveballs. Is that from the heat or the dryness?

I've read that the ball travels further in high humidity, but that seems counter intuitive as denser air would *seem* to offer more resistance.

AT&T Park's right field, despite being below average in distance is considered to be hard to reach.

:shrug:

Air density - less dense air allows balls to fly further.

Viscosity - Although humid air is less dense than dry air, water vapor has a higher natural viscosity...this affects the spin of the ball, primarily. The more viscous the air (viscosity is the tendency of air molecules to create drag on objects passing through them), the more a pitched ball will spin and thus the movement pitches will have...the less viscous, the less pitches move. Viscosity also affects backspin and topspin on batted balls.

Wind - Park relative wind flow is probably the most important variable for ball flight since wind is a direct force which varies by large amounts from location to location and time to time whereas surface air density (other than at elevated sites like Coors Field) varies very little (relatively speaking). Prevailing winds are the most important factors on how a park will play. Target Field may yet play as a hitter's park if the prevailing winds blow out for most of the season.

Precipitation - Falling precip is a severe park factor element...if it's raining, run scoring can drop by as much as 60% in some of my intro studies.

Physical stressers - beyond the mere influence of density and viscosity, extremes in heat index or wind chill add physical stress to the players and adversely affect performance...in both directions this results in lower run scoring than you'd expect.

Minneapolis has the distinction of being a very windy location, especially during the transition seasons (spring and fall)...which means Target Field's playability will be defined by how low the wind chills get, how much of that wind occurs during low precip events (rains that do not cancel the game) and how the wind blows relative to the park.

Now I need to clear up a common meteorological error that you've expressed that I've seen repeated in many places.

HUMID AIR IS LESS DENSE THAN DRY AIR! :) This is the fourth time I've made this little speech in various web locations responding to this misstep. Humid air feels heavier to us because our natural cooling system (sweat) does not function, so we get covered with sweat and feel all heavy and hot. However, water vapor (atomic weight 18) is lighter than N2 and )2 (the principle atmospheric gases...each with atomic weight of 28 or 32 respectively)...adding water vapor makes the air lighter and less dense...NOT more dense. So balls *DO* fly further in high humidity BECAUSE the air is less dense. The desert locations of the PCL are hitter friendly because it's very hot (which forms a heat-generated surface low pressure due to the relationship between density and temperautre (Pressure = density * gas constant * temperature)), very windy (in the afternoon, hot desert air rises due to surface-forced convection...this is also why they get so many dust devils out there), and generally higher in elevation that eastern US minor league sites). Also...the drier the air, the less viscous, so curveballs don't curve as much, sinkers don't sink as much and sliders don't slide as much.

[Jsquared83]

Air density - less dense air allows balls to fly further.

Viscosity - Although humid air is less dense than dry air, water vapor has a higher natural viscosity...this affects the spin of the ball, primarily. The more viscous the air (viscosity is the tendency of air molecules to create drag on objects passing through them), the more a pitched ball will spin and thus the movement pitches will have...the less viscous, the less pitches move. Viscosity also affects backspin and topspin on batted balls.

Wind - Park relative wind flow is probably the most important variable for ball flight since wind is a direct force which varies by large amounts from location to location and time to time whereas surface air density (other than at elevated sites like Coors Field) varies very little (relatively speaking). Prevailing winds are the most important factors on how a park will play. Target Field may yet play as a hitter's park if the prevailing winds blow out for most of the season.

Precipitation - Falling precip is a severe park factor element...if it's raining, run scoring can drop by as much as 60% in some of my intro studies.

Physical stressers - beyond the mere influence of density and viscosity, extremes in heat index or wind chill add physical stress to the players and adversely affect performance...in both directions this results in lower run scoring than you'd expect.

Minneapolis has the distinction of being a very windy location, especially during the transition seasons (spring and fall)...which means Target Field's playability will be defined by how low the wind chills get, how much of that wind occurs during low precip events (rains that do not cancel the game) and how the wind blows relative to the park.

Matt, which of these would you attribute to the lack of offense at Petco? San Diego is rarely humid which may be a factor, no?

[SABR Matt]

I still don't quite get why Petco plays so big. It's dimensions are very respectable but not huge. Are there any other wind or weather factors that would keep power #'s down?

The key to Gonzalez's monster year is the K's are down and BB's are waayy up. Imagine if he was still in Texas what his numbers would be this year :bowdown:

PetCo plays big for two reasons...

1) relatively large foul territory compared to most modern parks, coupled with deep power allies
2) cool air compared to most places. San Diego is perched next to the cold Pacific Coast current, which means it rarely gets above the low 70s even during the summer months...and the on-shore flow tends to blow IN from left if I understand the park orientation maps I look at correctly.

[SABR Matt]

Matt, which of these would you attribute to the lack of offense at Petco? San Diego is rarely humid which may be a factor, no?

San Diego is both cool (compared to most places in the summer) and dry...and the winds are relatively unfavorable for mcuh of the summer season.

[Jsquared83]

San Diego is both cool (compared to most places in the summer) and dry...and the winds are relatively unfavorable for mcuh of the summer season.

Makes sense.. What's your take on why the new yankee stadium is playing like a band box, especially to right? I was there a month ago and it just feels smaller all together. I honestly don't think its 385 to the right-center alley anymore, despite it's marking.

[CandlestickBum]

Air density - less dense air allows balls to fly further.

Viscosity - Although humid air is less dense than dry air, water vapor has a higher natural viscosity...this affects the spin of the ball, primarily. The more viscous the air (viscosity is the tendency of air molecules to create drag on objects passing through them), the more a pitched ball will spin and thus the movement pitches will have...the less viscous, the less pitches move. Viscosity also affects backspin and topspin on batted balls.

Wind - Park relative wind flow is probably the most important variable for ball flight since wind is a direct force which varies by large amounts from location to location and time to time whereas surface air density (other than at elevated sites like Coors Field) varies very little (relatively speaking). Prevailing winds are the most important factors on how a park will play. Target Field may yet play as a hitter's park if the prevailing winds blow out for most of the season.

Precipitation - Falling precip is a severe park factor element...if it's raining, run scoring can drop by as much as 60% in some of my intro studies.

Physical stressers - beyond the mere influence of density and viscosity, extremes in heat index or wind chill add physical stress to the players and adversely affect performance...in both directions this results in lower run scoring than you'd expect.

Minneapolis has the distinction of being a very windy location, especially during the transition seasons (spring and fall)...which means Target Field's playability will be defined by how low the wind chills get, how much of that wind occurs during low precip events (rains that do not cancel the game) and how the wind blows relative to the park.

Now I need to clear up a common meteorological error that you've expressed that I've seen repeated in many places.

HUMID AIR IS LESS DENSE THAN DRY AIR! :) This is the fourth time I've made this little speech in various web locations responding to this misstep. Humid air feels heavier to us because our natural cooling system (sweat) does not function, so we get covered with sweat and feel all heavy and hot. However, water vapor (atomic weight 18) is lighter than N2 and )2 (the principle atmospheric gases...each with atomic weight of 28 or 32 respectively)...adding water vapor makes the air lighter and less dense...NOT more dense. So balls *DO* fly further in high humidity BECAUSE the air is less dense. The desert locations of the PCL are hitter friendly because it's very hot (which forms a heat-generated surface low pressure due to the relationship between density and temperautre (Pressure = density * gas constant * temperature)), very windy (in the afternoon, hot desert air rises due to surface-forced convection...this is also why they get so many dust devils out there), and generally higher in elevation that eastern US minor league sites). Also...the drier the air, the less viscous, so curveballs don't curve as much, sinkers don't sink as much and sliders don't slide as much.


Thanks much, especially for the last bit, really didn't know that. Feel really stupid to get this old and not know that.

[SABR Matt]

Makes sense.. What's your take on why the new yankee stadium is playing like a band box, especially to right? I was there a month ago and it just feels smaller all together. I honestly don't think its 385 to the right-center alley anymore, despite it's marking.

A couple of things about the NYS.

I don't think the dimensions are wrong...but there is somewhat less foul territory there...and the bleachers crowd the walls more so it feels more cozy...that's a common modern stadium building trick.

I think the RF problem needs to be modeled with a wind-tunnel model to figure out why the air swirls out to right instead of in from right the way it did at the old park. I don't believe the wind speeds have significantly increased...I just think the direction has changed...and we need more information about why this would be. They're going to have to build something to dampen the wind flow if they want the park to play fair.

[SABR Matt]

Thanks much, especially for the last bit, really didn't know that. Feel really stupid to get this old and not know that.

Don't worry about it...judging by how many times I've had to give that clarification, you are far from the only person who hadn't been aware that humid air is less dense...I'm a meteorologist so it seems perfectly intuitive to me..I see dry air undercutting humid air all the time on weather maps (denser air masses undercut less dense airmasses...that's how cold fronts work and why the dry line in Texas moves a lot like a cold front).

But if you don't stare at maps and satellite imagery all the time, you don't get the intuitive feel for the weather that I would.

[CandlestickBum]

Don't worry about it...judging by how many times I've had to give that clarification, you are far from the only person who hadn't been aware that humid air is less dense...I'm a meteorologist so it seems perfectly intuitive to me..I see dry air undercutting humid air all the time on weather maps (denser air masses undercut less dense airmasses...that's how cold fronts work and why the dry line in Texas moves a lot like a cold front).

But if you don't stare at maps and satellite imagery all the time, you don't get the intuitive feel for the weather that I would.

It still doesn't *feel* right that air is heavier than water. :crazy

[SABR Matt]

Liquid water forms a lattice structure if enough of it comes together that is VERY dense compared to air...it's still a fluid but all those molecules of liquid water cram themselves in pretty tightly, resulting in a liquid water density of 1000 kg/m^3 compared to air's typical surface density of 1.25 kg/m^3. The result...we think of water as heavier than air even though free water vapor is significantly lighter.

[brett]

In fact the density of a gas at constant temperature and pressure is directly proportionate to its molecular mass.

Air is mostly Nitrogen so air has about 28/18 times the density of water vapor.

[SABR Matt]

Meteorologists use 29 kg/kmol as the weight of dry air...(79% at 28, 21% at 32)

But yes...water vapor, unbound by a liquid lattice, is very light...one of the lightest gasses on Earth (lighter gasses would include hydrogen and helium, but they are very rare...in fact hydrogen gas obtains escape velocity frequently enough that our planet is surrounded by a cloud of hydrogen ions 100 km thick in the exosphere as it continuously loses the lightest of elements. :)

[dgarza]

It still doesn't *feel* right that air is heavier than water. :crazy
Isn't water vapor "air" too ("gas").

[Honus Wagner Rules]

brett, SABR Matt,

That's simply stuff. If you can you tell us the air-speed velocity of an unladdened swallow then I would be impressed. :hyper: