Is David Ortiz just another Mo Vaughn

[micsmith]

If David Ortiz does not recover from his current state and ends up becoming a below average hitter or simply retires, then after all he has accomplished, is he really just another Mo Vaughn?

Ortiz got the two World Series rings, but Vaughn was an MVP and Vaughn wasn't simply a DH - he played the majority of his games in the field. Their numbers look comparable.

I hope Ortiz rebounds back to his old self. And I hope he is not connected to PEDs the way Vaughn is.

But if Ortiz does not rebound, then how much different is he than Vaughn.

Vaughn was one and done on the ballot. And if Ortiz is essentially the same as Vaughn, then we should expect him to be one and done on the ballot. I do not think that is how writers will remember him (if he cannot get back to his old self), and I think even if he retires tomorrow, Ortiz will get enough votes to hang around for a few years.

But, if he ends his career soon at the rate he is going, he is not a Hall of Famer in my opinion. And he is only marginally better than the enhanced Vaughn.

[SABR Matt]

Yes. He is exactly another Mo Vaughn.

Big, slow, questionable health sluggers age young. See: Cecil Fielder, Mo Vaughn, and now David Ortiz.

He started too late to have a huge shot at the HOF anyway...he'd have had to remain productive well into his mid/late thirties to be considered. There's no way he makes it now.

[SABR Matt]

BTW...for comparison's sake...by age:
Vaughn
Yr Lg Off Def O-M D-M Wins
1991 AL 0.98 0.37 0.4 0.3 1.35 23
1992 AL 2.25 0.58 1.9 0.4 2.83 24
1993 AL 6.73 0.80 9.5 0.4 7.53 25
1994 AL 6.36 0.61 9.8 0.2 6.97 26
1995 AL 7.44 1.38 10.9 1.4 8.82 27
1996 AL 10.33 0.53 15.9 -0.4 10.86 28
1997 AL 9.89 0.21 15.8 -0.8 10.10 29
1998 AL 11.08 1.45 17.8 1.5 12.53 30
1999 AL 7.11 1.05 10.5 1.4 8.16 31
2000 AL 4.92 0.35 5.3 -0.7 5.27 32
INJURED 33
2002 NL 4.87 0.67 6.2 0.1 5.54 34

Ortiz
Yr Lg Off Def O-M D-M Wins
1998 AL 3.47 0.38 4.9 0.2 3.85 22
2000 AL 3.22 0.39 3.4 0.5 3.61 24
2001 AL 2.31 0.12 2.4 0.2 2.43 25
2002 AL 4.57 0.16 6.2 0.2 4.73 26
2003 AL 6.30 0.42 9.4 0.5 6.72 27
2004 AL 9.59 0.43 15.0 0.6 10.02 28
2005 AL 11.08 -0.08 17.8 -0.2 11.00 29
2006e AL 11.4 -0.1 18.6 -0.2 11.3 30
2007e AL 12.5 0.0 20.9 -0.1 12.5 31
2008e AL 5.2 0.0 8.0 0.0 5.2 32

e means the numbers are shorthand estimates rather than fully calculated. My shorthand estimates are pretty accurate normally, especially for the hitting numbers.

What we have here are two VERY similar players...Ortiz was a better hitter but a less useful fielder, and Ortiz lasted one year longer in his prime. But it's over now. Go on and take a bow.

[Cougar]

If David Ortiz does not recover from his current state and ends up becoming a below average hitter or simply retires, then after all he has accomplished, is he really just another Mo Vaughn?

Ortiz got the two World Series rings, but Vaughn was an MVP and Vaughn wasn't simply a DH - he played the majority of his games in the field. Their numbers look comparable.

I hope Ortiz rebounds back to his old self. And I hope he is not connected to PEDs the way Vaughn is.

But if Ortiz does not rebound, then how much different is he than Vaughn.

Vaughn was one and done on the ballot. And if Ortiz is essentially the same as Vaughn, then we should expect him to be one and done on the ballot. I do not think that is how writers will remember him (if he cannot get back to his old self), and I think even if he retires tomorrow, Ortiz will get enough votes to hang around for a few years.

But, if he ends his career soon at the rate he is going, he is not a Hall of Famer in my opinion. And he is only marginally better than the enhanced Vaughn.

Mo Vaughn was connected to PEDs? This is the first I can recall hearing of that.

[jjpm74]

David Ortiz is just another good bat who is declining rapidly and will not be in HOF conversations 5-10 years from now. To even be considered, without a fielding position, he'd have to put up some legendary numbers that surpass even the great Edgar Martinez. He's nowhere near Martinez, is in his 13th year, is 34 years old, and has only 2 home runs and a .196 BA and a 53 OPS+ in 50 G/225 PA in one of the most hitter friendly ball parks. He is very unlikely.

[gman5431]

Yeah, i hadnt heard Vaughn connected to PEDs either?

Anyways, Big Papi is a great guy but he got started late and his career appears to be nearing an abrupt end. For a man of his age and size, there isnt a lot of hope. He has no shot at the HOF but its not due to his rapid decline, he didnt have much of a shot to begin with.

G Man

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Matt,

Is Prince Fielder in the same boat a well? Or is he a different type of hitter?

[PVNICK]

Yeah, i hadnt heard Vaughn connected to PEDs either? Wasn't Vaughn's name in the Mitchell report?

[Freakshow]

Highest OPS+ this decade, >3250 PA
Cnt Player OPS+ RC PA From To
+----+-----------------+----+----+-----+----+----+
1 Barry Bonds 221 1171 4072 2000 2007
2 Albert Pujols 171 1259 5626 2001 2009
3 Manny Ramirez 161 1199 5563 2000 2009
4 Alex Rodriguez 155 1315 6356 2000 2009
5 Jason Giambi 154 1043 5249 2000 2009
6 Chipper Jones 150 1098 5477 2000 2009
7 Lance Berkman 148 1181 5917 2000 2009
8 Vladimir Guerrero 148 1104 5775 2000 2009
9 Jim Thome 148 1064 5430 2000 2009
10 Todd Helton 146 1291 5982 2000 2009
11 Carlos Delgado 144 1124 5938 2000 2009
12 Sammy Sosa 142 768 4088 2000 2007
13 Miguel Cabrera 141 713 3972 2003 2009
14 Gary Sheffield 141 958 5224 2000 2009
15 David Wright 140 608 3286 2004 2009
16 Jim Edmonds 140 891 4757 2000 2008
17 David Ortiz 137 974 5255 2000 2009
18 Brian Giles 136 1074 6144 2000 2009
19 Frank Thomas 136 711 3983 2000 2008
20 Mark Teixeira 135 758 4171 2003 2009
21 Bobby Abreu 133 1158 6482 2000 2009
22 Magglio Ordonez 133 933 5388 2000 2009
23 Jeff Bagwell 133 653 3631 2000 2005
24 Jason Bay 132 619 3504 2003 2009
25 J.D. Drew 131 803 4511 2000 2009
26 Adam Dunn 131 867 4991 2001 2009
27 Jorge Posada 130 807 4915 2000 2009
28 Chase Utley 130 615 3361 2003 2009

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Wasn't Vaughn's name in the Mitchell report?

I believe that was Greg Vaughn who hit 50 home runs for the Padres in 1998.

[dominik]

Matt,

Is Prince Fielder in the same boat a well? Or is he a different type of hitter?

I would say fielder is better. His start was much better at a younger age, and his best seasons exeeds all but one of david in HRs. He is on pace to a better career.

But of course when he gets older he will face the same problems as david. I would advice him to trim down to 230 at least to reduce injury possiblity.

[PVNICK]

I believe that was Greg Vaughn who hit 50 home runs for the Padres in 1998. Actually it's Mo, both from memory and what a quick search pulls up.

[SABR Matt]

Matt,

Is Prince Fielder in the same boat a well? Or is he a different type of hitter?

Prince Fielder will die young as well, yes. As will Ryan Howard.

[rsuriyop]

Prince Fielder will die young as well, yes. As will Ryan Howard.

That may very well be the case, but it's not all that certain. Look at Willie Stargell. Another large bodied slugger who lasted until he was 42.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

That may very well be the case, but it's not all that certain. Look at Willie Stargell. Another large bodied slugger who lasted until he was 42.

Stargell wasn't a "large body" in his 20's. He was build more like Willie McCovey or Babe Ruth than Mo Vaughn. Here's a photo of Stargell and Terry Bradshaw from late 1979. Does Stargell look huge in this photo?

http://www.bing.com/images/search?q=willie+stargell&FORM=BIFD#focal=79e3c24216b88c761b0301e526972aa2&furl=http%3A%2F%2Fi.cdn.turner.com%2Fsivault%2Fsi_ online%2Fcovers%2Fimages%2F1979%2F1224_large.jpg

[Cougar]

Prince Fielder will die young as well, yes. As will Ryan Howard.

I gotta say, this statement is a little tasteless.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

I gotta say, this statement is a little tasteless.

I think Matt is referring to their baseball careers, not their life spans.

[SABR Matt]

That may very well be the case, but it's not all that certain. Look at Willie Stargell. Another large bodied slugger who lasted until he was 42.

Willie Stargell was not fat...he was just BIG...it's the FAT large-framed sluggers with old-man skills that you have to worry about.

Example: Cecil Fielder
Counter-Example: Jim Thome (not fat...just muscular).

Ortiz is fat. Prince Fielder is fat. Ryan Howard is fat. Jim Thome is not.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Willie Stargell was not fat...he was just BIG...it's the FAT large-framed sluggers with old-man skills that you have to worry about.

Example: Cecil Fielder
Counter-Example: Jim Thome (not fat...just muscular).

Ortiz is fat. Prince Fielder is fat. Ryan Howard is fat. Jim Thome is not.

Has there ever been a FAT large framed slugger that had a long career?

[SABR Matt]

There've been large framed sluggers who became fat as they aged but still had good careers (Ruth would be an example of this)...I can't think of a guy who was fat at 23 and did well at 33 though...maybe someone else has a good example...I'm sure at least a few have defied the odds.

[jjpm74]

There've been large framed sluggers who became fat as they aged but still had good careers (Ruth would be an example of this)...I can't think of a guy who was fat at 23 and did well at 33 though...maybe someone else has a good example...I'm sure at least a few have defied the odds.

I can't think of any sluggers, but pitchers like David Wells, Fernando Valenzuela, and Rich Gossage had productive careers despite being overweight.

EDIT: I wouldn't exactly call him a slugger, but Ernie Lombardi was big and slow but strung together a borderline HOF career.

[jjpm74]

Here's a fun weight distribution chart for all ballplayers 1876-2007:

http://www.baseball-almanac.com/charts/weights/weights.shtml

[nerfan]

Kirby Puckett was fat and he could have lasted a long time.

Tony Gwynn was pretty fat and he DID last a long time.

Can't think of any true sluggers, though. Boog Powell and John Kruk immediately came to mind, their careers ended early. I guess Harmon Killebrew wasn't exactly SKINNY.

[STLCards2]

Kirby Puckett was fat and he could have lasted a long time.

Tony Gwynn was pretty fat and he DID last a long time.

.

Yeah, but like Matt said - were they fat at age 23? 24? 25?

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Kirby Puckett was fat and he could have lasted a long time.
Puckett was not fat as a player. He became obese after he retired. Here is a photo of Kirby in 1991 (age 31). He's certainly not fat at this point of his career.

http://imagecache.allposters.com/images/pic/Ssport/PUCKPHU008001~Kirby-Puckett-1991-World-Series-Home-Run-Posters.jpg


Tony Gwynn was pretty fat and he DID last a long time.
Gywnn got fat at the end of his career. In 1987 Gwynn had a 56 stolen base season. He also had 40, 37, 33, and 26 stolen base seasons by age 29. I can't imagine Cecil and Prince Fielder, Mo Vaughn, or David Ortiz ever stealing 56 bases.

[SABR Matt]

I can't think of any sluggers, but pitchers like David Wells, Fernando Valenzuela, and Rich Gossage had productive careers despite being overweight.

EDIT: I wouldn't exactly call him a slugger, but Ernie Lombardi was big and slow but strung together a borderline HOF career.

Big pitchers are different that big hitters...pitching does not require you to be in shape in the same way that hitting does...a fat guy like Wells isn't necessarily going to lose his ability to put the ball where he wants it to go the same way that a fat slugger is going to lose batspeed.

[SABR Matt]

Kirby Puckett was fat and he could have lasted a long time.

Tony Gwynn was pretty fat and he DID last a long time.

Can't think of any true sluggers, though. Boog Powell and John Kruk immediately came to mind, their careers ended early. I guess Harmon Killebrew wasn't exactly SKINNY.

Killer started out all muscle...he got fat after he passed thirty...which is, not coincidentally, when he started having more trouble fielding his position and even hitting for average.

Puckett was skinny as a rail when he arrived...and freakishly fast and strong too. He got fatter and lost his defensive chops later in his career and I doubt if he would have lasted a long time even without the eye thing.

Gwynn arrived skinny, hungry and ridiculously fast. He was the Ichiro of the 1980s. He didn't get fat until his early to mid 30s.

[SABR Matt]

EDIT: I wouldn't exactly call him a slugger, but Ernie Lombardi was big and slow but strung together a borderline HOF career.

Ernie Lombardi...I don't know how much of him was fat and how much was muscle...don't know enough to comment on that...but he might be a good example of someone beating the odds on the fat rule. Not sure.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Ernie Lombardi...I don't know how much of him was fat and how much was muscle...don't know enough to comment on that...but he might be a good example of someone beating the odds on the fat rule. Not sure.

Here is Lombardi in 1940 at age 32. He's wearing a baggy uniform but I don't think at age 32 Lombardi was anything close to being "fat".

[jjpm74]

Lombardi is officially listed at 6'3" 230 pounds. I don't know how much of that is fat as I'm 6'1" 226, and a former catcher who ended his career in college due to a serious knee injury and have very little body fat, but he played in an era where players did not work out, was what some say the slowest player in the history of the game, and is in the top 1% in terms of weight all time.

[SABR Matt]

weeeellll...that photo makes him look more like a big-boned kind of guy than a fat kind of guy...I think he was maybe a little wider than your average player but he's not slight in build either. And that was at age 32...he was probably less bulky before then.

It's borderline...if he's the exception...then I think he PROVES the rule.