Where does Honus Wagner stand in terms of overall value all time?

[bambambaseball]

SABRMatt posted something very interesting regarding Honus Wagner's defensive ability:

Maranville was definitely not the "best defensive shortstop in the history of the game"...that honor belongs to Ozzie Smith. And #2 is not Maranville iether...it's Joe Tinker. And #3 still isn't Maranville...it's Honus Wagner...LOL


Using his system, Honus Wagner is the 3rd best defensive player all time at the most valuable defensive position all time. Offensively, he ranks in the top 6 overall. Looking at the big picture, Honus Wagner looks like the only player in the top 5 who is not an outfielder. Does that make him more valuable overall then Ty Cobb, Babe Ruth, Barry Bonds and the rest of the all time greats he is in the company with? Why or why not?

I always put Babe Ruth on a pedestal, but maybe now, Honus Wagner deserves to be up there at the #1 spot. Im looking for feedback.

[SABR Matt]

I do not have Wagner in my top spot...It's still Ruth and Cobb at the top for me, they were just so far ahead of the rest of the greats in terms of total value and in terms of peak separation...it's hard for me to overlook that.

In terms of straight HOF Marker scoring, Wagner is all the way down in the 10 spot for me despite being a fantastic fielder and a top flight hitter at short...there were so many TREMENDOUS hitting outfielders that it's tough for a SS to compete. But as I am believing more and more these days that a positional adjustment needs to be made to the defensive numbers in particular (I still don't buy into fielding impacting your hitting greatness except for catchers who get the crap beaten out of them so often it's hard to put up big numbers) to account for positional difficulty when measuring greatness...I would personally move Wagner up to at least the 6th spot...behind Ruth, Cobb, Mays, Bonds (yes...even adjusting for steroids he's still that high IMHO), and Speaker...and he might move ahead of Speaker into 5th.

[jjpm74]

I adjust for position, and have Honus Wagner #1 all time ahead of Babe Ruth, Ty Cobb, Barry Bonds, Tris Speaker (same 5 players, just a different order).

[SABR Matt]

You position adjustment must be HUGE...

Of course everyone's got a different way of doing that so there's never going to be total agreement.

[jjpm74]

You position adjustment must be HUGE...

Of course everyone's got a different way of doing that so there's never going to be total agreement.

Not that huge. His offensive career totals aren't that far off from Babe Ruth, Barry Bonds and the rest, but he also has the benefit of playing SS and being great defensively. He compares favorably to Ozzie Smith who I have ranked at #2 overall behind only Wagner at SS and #1 ahead of Wagner and a few others defensively. Defensive credit is subjective, however but Ruth was nowhere near as valuable defensively; though he does get some significant extra credit for his pitching days, and Ty Cobb, despite being good defensively, was not a standout and played a less valuable position. If you gave me Cobb's offense with Mays' defense or slightly better defense from Ruth, both would be ahead for me. As it is, we're splitting hairs here since all 3 are among the best 10 all time and it is very close.

[jalbright]

I have Wagner third, just behind Cobb, a little way behind Ruth.

[jaxxr]

Defense is difficult to rate numerically,
the speed of the batted ball, the exact angle it was hit, the defender's original position in relation to the batted ball, the preciseness of "zones", the speed of the runner, and many other hard to measure factors, all come into evaluations.

Anther source which specializes in rating the baseball players while adjusting for time era and other factors, by strictly defense for SS, has Ozzie as no 1, Lou Boudreau, Everett Scott, and Ray Sanchez next.
Honus, along with Pop Lloyd and Bill Dahlen are tied for number 20.

Honus was an outstanding defender, and while no "proof" can be certain he was number 2 or number 22 of all time, he is still among the very best.

I, personally would put Wagner as about number 6 in overall value, hitting positional defense, and baserunning.

[brett]

I do not have Wagner in my top spot...It's still Ruth and Cobb at the top for me, they were just so far ahead of the rest of the greats in terms of total value and in terms of peak separation...it's hard for me to overlook that.

In terms of straight HOF Marker scoring, Wagner is all the way down in the 10 spot for me despite being a fantastic fielder and a top flight hitter at short...there were so many TREMENDOUS hitting outfielders that it's tough for a SS to compete. But as I am believing more and more these days that a positional adjustment needs to be made to the defensive numbers in particular (I still don't buy into fielding impacting your hitting greatness except for catchers who get the crap beaten out of them so often it's hard to put up big numbers) to account for positional difficulty when measuring greatness...I would personally move Wagner up to at least the 6th spot...behind Ruth, Cobb, Mays, Bonds (yes...even adjusting for steroids he's still that high IMHO), and Speaker...and he might move ahead of Speaker into 5th.

Considering the drop-off in value at SS after Wagner, would he be the first guy drafted in an all time league?

In other words does he have the most value relative to other greats at his position?

Among ALL SS's I don't think this would be true, as I think you showed that SS's and corner outfielder as well as second basemen, centerfielders and right fielders all produce about 6 wins per 162 games.

(Actually 6 seems just a little low. If you got 6 wins from all 9 lineup spots, offense and defense, that would still leave 27 or 33% from pitching)

[gman5431]

I would prolly have Wagner somewhere around 3rd or 4th. Behind Mays and then Ruth and close to Cobb.

G Man

[brett]

I would prolly have Wagner somewhere around 3rd or 4th. Behind Mays and then Ruth and close to Cobb.

G Man

I have had him consistently 4th, or 5th when I had Bonds higher, but again if one were to draft a team of all time greats for a franchise, he might be the first to go.

What is interesting is how other baseball discussion sites out there put him in the 12-16 range.

I could consider moving him up on Mays and Cobb. Basically 2 things stand in the way.

1) Mays played 2992 games AND lost 2 years to military service. Otherwise he would be around 3250. Cobb played 3035. Wagner was at 2792. That means he gives up 8.7% in terms of playing time to Cobb, and 8-16% on Mays (depending on how much he gets for war years).

May not sound like much but 8.7% to his career value would be huge.

2) His incredible peak win shares season is way out of sight of even the rest of his great career. That seems like something that would happen in a weaker league, or at least that that one particualr season was an anomaly. Maybe not though. He produced in so many ways that he might have just had ALL of his talents aligned for that year. I do know that from about '97 to '02, you can find players putting up all-star seasons one year, and literally being bench players or out of the league within the next 1-2 years. Again, that seems to be the sign of a weaker league that had not fully matured. From '03 on, I don't see that happening. Some of it may have even been from ballplayers suited for one of the diverse ballparks of the time. A guy could be a star in one park, and a non-factor in another the next year.

[mwiggins]

Considering the drop-off in value at SS after Wagner, would he be the first guy drafted in an all time league?

In other words does he have the most value relative to other greats at his position?

Among ALL SS's I don't think this would be true, as I think you showed that SS's and corner outfielder as well as second basemen, centerfielders and right fielders all produce about 6 wins per 162 games.

(Actually 6 seems just a little low. If you got 6 wins from all 9 lineup spots, offense and defense, that would still leave 27 or 33% from pitching)

I'd take him 2nd. Ruth is still that much better than anybody, but Cobb and Mays aren't that much better than Speaker, Mantle, or DiMaggio.

[brett]

I'd take him 2nd. Ruth is still that much better than anybody, but Cobb and Mays aren't that much better than Speaker, Mantle, or DiMaggio.

Well, those CF's could all play RF/LF too.

Ruth versus Bonds* versus Williams versus Musial

Wagner versus A-Rod* versus George Davis/Robin Yount/Cal Ripken or about 10 other guys?

Leave out Bonds and A-Rod for a minute.

What 2 shortstops would you put closer to Wagner than Williams or Musial are to Ruth? There's also Hank Aaron.


Williams, Musial, Aaron, Frank Robinson, Rickey Henderson I think are all substantiall better than the 5 shortstops outside of Wagner and A-Rod.

[jaxxr]

Wagner might no be sooo very far ahead of the next best shortstops to ever play professional baseball, besides Mr. Arod, Pop Lloyd must be considered,

In the historical abstract - "Connie Mack said that you could put Honus Wagner and Pop Lloyd in a bag, pull out whichever one and not go wrong either way."

In 1938, a St. Louis sportswriter, asked to name the best player in baseball history, said,"If you mean in organized baseball, my answer would be Babe Ruth: but if you mean in all of baseball, my answer would have to be an Atlantic City colored man named John Henry Lloyd. "

Basethinkfactory.com produces a Hall of merit, Lloyd is rated next to only Wagner, and by a fairly close margin.

[mwiggins]

Well, those CF's could all play RF/LF too.

Ruth versus Bonds* versus Williams versus Musial

Wagner versus A-Rod* versus George Davis/Robin Yount/Cal Ripken or about 10 other guys?

Leave out Bonds and A-Rod for a minute.

What 2 shortstops would you put closer to Wagner than Williams or Musial are to Ruth? There's also Hank Aaron.


Williams, Musial, Aaron, Frank Robinson, Rickey Henderson I think are all substantiall better than the 5 shortstops outside of Wagner and A-Rod.

There aren't any. But at some point the fact that Ruth is that much better than any other player on the board comes into play. And on the days when Ruth is pitching, he gives you an extra big bat in the lineup. It depends on how far out in front at #1 you think Ruth is, I guess.

But Wagner wouldn't be a bad pick at #1. In the last All-time draft we had here I took Wagner #2 very happily. And I would have taken him #1. But it was only a 6-team league, so I was able to grab Bonds, Speaker, Henderson, and Joe Jackson to fill my OF/DH spots. In a larger league, I would probably Ruth #1.

[BigRon]

I've regularly gone back and forth between 5th place and 6th- Honus or Williams. For now I'll place Wagner 6th.

Great defender at valuable position, all time great baserunner, great hitter, However, he's not quite the batter that the guys above him are.

[bambambaseball]

When I participated in an All-time fantasy draft, this was the order of my picks and there were 10 teams:

1 (1) Honus Wagner SS
2 (19) Rickey Henderson LF
3 (20) Mike Schmidt 3B
4 (38) Joe DiMaggio CF
5 (41) Mel Ott RF
6 (67) Johnny Mize 1B
7 (72) Gabby Hartnett C
8 (86) Rod Carew 2B
9 (93) Satchel Paige P
10 (105) Bob Feller P
11 (114) Mariano Rivera RP
12 (126) Pedro Martinez P
13 (133) Red Faber P
14 (144) Bid McPhee 2B
15 (152) Tommy Leach 3B/CF
16 (161) Minnie Minoso (LF)
17 (170) Al Kaline RF
18 (181) Bruce Sutter RP

and here were the 1st 10 picks. Pitchers werent picked until all positions were filled:

1. Honus Wagner
2. Babe Ruth
3. Ty Cobb
4. Ted Williams
5. Tris Speaker
6. Barry Bonds
7. Mickey Mantle
8. Ozzie Smith
9. Willie Mays
10. Stan Musial

It was a lot of fun and something Id love to do again here sometime!

[jjpm74]

Ozzie Smith was one of the 1st 10 picks? Over guys like Josh Gibson and Joe Morgan?

[nerfan]

There are SOME good shortstops to go around. Besides Wagner, you've got Pop Lloyd and Alex Rodriguez, not to mention Arky, Cal, Derek, etc,.

If I could choose any baseball player in the world to start my team with it would be Barroid Bonds. He's not the best player ever, but he's the only member of the top ten who played in the modern era, making him "guaranteed" to perform well.

[STLCards2]

Ignoring PEDS, I would have Wagner 5th, behind Ruth, Cobb, Mays, and Bonds. Like everybofy else has said, I could see him as high as second with large positional adjustments.

[JDD]

When I participated in an All-time fantasy draft, this was the order of my picks and there were 10 teams:

1 (1) Honus Wagner SS
2 (19) Rickey Henderson LF
3 (20) Mike Schmidt 3B
4 (38) Joe DiMaggio CF
5 (41) Mel Ott RF
6 (67) Johnny Mize 1B
7 (72) Gabby Hartnett C
8 (86) Rod Carew 2B
9 (93) Satchel Paige P
10 (105) Bob Feller P
11 (114) Mariano Rivera RP
12 (126) Pedro Martinez P
13 (133) Red Faber P
14 (144) Bid McPhee 2B
15 (152) Tommy Leach 3B/CF
16 (161) Minnie Minoso (LF)
17 (170) Al Kaline RF
18 (181) Bruce Sutter RP



Using those numbers, I am guessing there was some trading of draft picks or some sort of non traditional snake draft in place. It sounds like you had fun with that. I think you reached too much to get Gabby, when Biff Pocoroba would have still been there in the later rounds.

[KCGHOST]

I have Wagner in the 4-6 range.

[dominik]

Considering the drop-off in value at SS after Wagner, would he be the first guy drafted in an all time league?

In other words does he have the most value relative to other greats at his position?

Among ALL SS's I don't think this would be true, as I think you showed that SS's and corner outfielder as well as second basemen, centerfielders and right fielders all produce about 6 wins per 162 games.

(Actually 6 seems just a little low. If you got 6 wins from all 9 lineup spots, offense and defense, that would still leave 27 or 33% from pitching)

Ruth is my clear no.1 and I do rank others in front of wagner(Williams, Cobb, Mays, Bonds f.e.).

But when it comes to drafting the thing might change.

Hanley Ramirez who might have a higher market value than Pujols is a similar thing. While there are many great hitting OF and 1B there are very few great hitting middle infielders.

So when you have to get a new player a great SS might be even more valuable when it comes to winning games, because you have an extra production spot.

Take 2 good teams with good hitting OF and 1B man like most Playoff teams have.
Then adding wagner would add more production for the team then say adding Mays because you replace a good hitter with mays.
The team who adds Mays will have 4 heavily producing guys with one super great.
The team with Wagner will have 5 big producing guys.

In that way such a player could be even more valuable for an already stong team.

I hope you know what I mean.(offensively wagner has might have a bigger plus on an average SS than most great OFers have on the average OF).

[Paul Wendt]

Generally this is people's argument for ranking Wagner first, not merely drafting him first.

This line suggests that you do mean the ordinary context of a major league pennant race:
> Take 2 good teams with good hitting OF and 1B man like most Playoff teams have.

In that ordinary context, "people" are right. The argument supports ranking Wagner first.

Yet it may be right to draft Wagner first for some all-time fantasy league, based on this line of argument re-cast in the all-time context. The argument must go something like this.

>> [for illustration only]
In a typical major league season, Babe Ruth's margin over the average rightfielder is greater than Wagner's over the average shortstop. (--or a replacement-level shortstop, or an average or replacement-level shortstop for a typical potential contending team)

Measured in giant steps, some major league teams (or potential contending teams) have regular RFs who are four steps behind Ruth, but no regular SSs are more than three steps behind Wagner. Advantage Ruth.

For all time, however, the occasional superb rightfielders who are only one giant step behind Ruth -- say, Crawford, Heilmann, Waner, Ott, Aaron, Robinson, and Canseco ;-) -- are numerous enough to fill an 8-team league. Meanwhile the occasional superb shortstops who are only one giant step behind Wagner are too few, even over "all time" -- say, Lloyd, Vaughan, and A-Rod. The 8-team league must have some regular shortstops who are two giant steps behind Wagner -- say, Davis, Ripken, and Jeter.

[SABR Matt]

In an all-time draft, Wagner is the only dominant shortstop. Literally. The only one. EVERYONE is two giant steps behind Wagner.

So in a draft setting, I'd pick Wagner first. But that doesn't make Wagner the greatest player of all time or even the most valuable player of all time, because, relative to their own time, Ruth was much farther above the marginal value for his position (the zero-value margin I mean...the point at which a right fielder becomes absolutely valueless) than Wagner was above the marginal value for his position in his own time. When your comparison point is "all other greats and only the other greats"...things get distorted and Wagner looks like the most important player on the board. When your comparison point is all major league baseball players...Ruth is clearly a greater figure. As are Cobb, Williams and Bonds...and Speaker and Wagner are a near-push.

[dominik]

In an all-time draft, Wagner is the only dominant shortstop. Literally. The only one. EVERYONE is two giant steps behind Wagner.

So in a draft setting, I'd pick Wagner first. But that doesn't make Wagner the greatest player of all time or even the most valuable player of all time, because, relative to their own time, Ruth was much farther above the marginal value for his position (the zero-value margin I mean...the point at which a right fielder becomes absolutely valueless) than Wagner was above the marginal value for his position in his own time. When your comparison point is "all other greats and only the other greats"...things get distorted and Wagner looks like the most important player on the board. When your comparison point is all major league baseball players...Ruth is clearly a greater figure. As are Cobb, Williams and Bonds...and Speaker and Wagner are a near-push.


That's how I see it, too.

[Tiboreau]

In an all-time draft, Wagner is the only dominant shortstop. Literally. The only one. EVERYONE is two giant steps behind Wagner.

So in a draft setting, I'd pick Wagner first. But that doesn't make Wagner the greatest player of all time or even the most valuable player of all time, because, relative to their own time, Ruth was much farther above the marginal value for his position (the zero-value margin I mean...the point at which a right fielder becomes absolutely valueless) than Wagner was above the marginal value for his position in his own time. When your comparison point is "all other greats and only the other greats"...things get distorted and Wagner looks like the most important player on the board. When your comparison point is all major league baseball players...Ruth is clearly a greater figure. As are Cobb, Williams and Bonds...and Speaker and Wagner are a near-push.

The rate for each comprehensive metric is based on 675 PA; "top5" stands for their top 5 non-consecutive seasons, and the fourth column is the total above an all-star season over their career. DR's WARP2 is Dan Rosenheck's WARP data (http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/hall_of_merit/discussion/dan_rosenhecks_warp_data).

DR: WARP2 RT top5 >4 BP: WARP3 RT top5 >4 WS: aWS RT top5 >21
Cobb 160.4 7.8 58 76.8 158.6 7.6 57 57.6 758 36.8 240 293
Wagner 158.2 8.4 58 81.1 156 8.4 55.2 62.2 708 37.7 248 299
Speaker 145.4 7.7 51 69.8 143.6 7.6 51.2 53 673 35.4 224 259
Personally, I would consider Ty Cobb to be the player with which Honus Wagner shares near-push status, not Tris Speaker. In fact, considering position I have Wagner ahead of Cobb and consider him to be 4th all-time, behind Ted Williams & Barry Bonds, and between Williams' WWII credit & Barry's HGH issues Wagner could very well rank 2nd, IMO (which is exactly where Bill James has him, FWIW).

[SABR Matt]

WARP2, WARP3, and WS all share one important thing in common...they are all underrating the importance of outfield defense (and defense in general, but relative to each other, those positions, SS and CF, are much closer in real value than WS or WARP recognize).

WS places the ratio of value between CF and SS at roughly 2 to 3, for example, whereas PCA has that ratio at closer to 2.5 to 3.

This is not a quibble...it makes a HUGE difference when accounting for Tris Speaker's actual value-based greatness, a small difference for Cobb. In other words, Speaker is a better player than any of your metrics will recognize.

[CTaka]

I'd probably slot Honus 3rd all time. Neck and neck with Cobb and just a hair ahead of Mays.