When the Yankees will reach $1 Billion

[Hammerin Hank]

My prediction on when the Yankees will reach a $1 billion payroll:

2015 - 1,085,813,703
2014 - 920,181,105
2013 - 779,814,496
2012 - 660,882,624
2011 - 560,070,020
2010 - 474,635,610
2009 - 402,233,568
2008 - 340,875,905
2007 - 288,877,886
2006 - 244,811,768 (actual: 194,663,079)
2005 - 207,467,600 (actual: 208,306,817)
2004 - 175,820,000 (actual: 184,193,950)
2003 - 149,000,000 (actual: 152,749,814)
2002 - 125,928,583
2001 - 109,791,893
2000 - 92,583,260
1999 - 91,990,955
1998 - 73,963,698
1997 - 73,389,577
1996 - 61,511,870
1995 - 58,165,252

Note: Added actual salaries for seasons since predictions were made.

[The Commissioner]

They'll reach $1 billion when the rest of MLB goes bankrupt or inflation is so rampant in the U.S. that economic is completely destabilized.

I'm no ecomonics professor, but I'm sure we have some here at Baseball Fever. Perhaps, they could explain why this scenario is not very likely, or why I am dead wrong?

[Hammerin Hank]

My figures are only if the Yankees payroll continued to increase at the rate it has been this last decade, which is very unlikely.

[J W]

Even the Yankees have an operating cost :laugh.

[Brad Harris]

Originally posted by CubbieFan7
My figures are only if the Yankees payroll continued to increase at the rate it has been this last decade, which is very unlikely.

Given that the Yankees 1993 Opening Day payroll was $40,405,000 and their 2003 Opening Day payroll was $149,710,995, the rate their payroll increased "this last decade" was a little under 271%.

I don't know what data you're using, or what kind of math you've applied to it, but that would project a 2013 payroll of $554,718,031 (rounded to the nearest dollar.)

The data above is provided courtesy of the SABR Business of Baseball Committee (http://roadsidephotos.com/baseball/TEAMSAL.xls), chaired by Doug Pappas.

Your projection, not only maintains the rate of increase we've seen over the past decade, but increases it! What was your methodology? I presume you were just tinkering with numbers and stumbled on this. Else, what motivation do you have for projecting a billion dollar payroll?

The fact is that all of Major League Baseball (and all that encompasses) took in approximately $3.6 billion last in 2002. To project that, 12 years later, one club will account for a billion dollar payroll (not just revenues) is simply outrageous!

The value of the entire franchise is less today than the payroll you've projected for it a decade from now.

You nor I will live to see the day that any major league team sports a billion dollar payroll.

[Mattingly]

Originally posted by CubbieFan7
My figures are only if the Yankees payroll continued to increase at the rate it has been this last decade, which is very unlikely. After the new CBA, which was aimed squarely at George, added to the Yanks trading expensive players in the offseason, I'd say that it wouldn't really increase that much in the next few years.

I seriously doubt it would increase to $200m in 2005, and jumping from under $800m in 2013 to over $1b in 2015 seems like something which could never happen.

Even given the YES money George has developed, I couldn't imagine this happening, then keeping ticket prices and advertising rates within sanity.

[Hammerin Hank]

Originally posted by Chancellor
Your projection, not only maintains the rate of increase we've seen over the past decade, but increases it! What was your methodology? I presume you were just tinkering with numbers and stumbled on this. Else, what motivation do you have for projecting a billion dollar payroll?

Bingo! But I also wanted to get the real numbers and this was the easiest way.

[Hammerin Hank]

Originally posted by Chancellor
You nor I will live to see the day that any major league team sports a billion dollar payroll.

That's the best news I've heard all day.:)

[Mattingly]

Originally posted by CubbieFan7
That's the best news I've heard all day.:) If the Yanks wanted to spend to no end, they'd have put Bonds at $25m on the payroll last winter. ARod at the same price would've also have been on the payroll.

I'm not sure if you're half joking or serious with this thread, but I can't believe that George would serious raise payroll to the levels and percentages you've given here in the next dozen years.

[Zito75]

Very entertaining thread. However, this will never happen. There will be a point of diminishing returns. To translate this, even you guys will quit paying a certain amount of money to watch some shmuck buy a championship. It's like when you're in college and you drink 6 or 7 beers. It's cool... but it gets harder and harder to drink the 8th, 9th and 10th beers.

Not only that, the game of baseball would be so unrecognizable at this point. Joe Public would get sick of paying huge ticket prices to pay the salaries, which would cause a decline in attendance as well as TV ratings. There is a point of equilibrium, and I imagine we'll be testing that point in the near future, or else we will see the demise and collapse of baseball, which is already starting to happen in the NHL.

Personally I feel that A-Rod and Georgie Porgie are on the track to ruin the game.

[Hammerin Hank]

My prediction for this year's payroll was at 175,820,000. What are the Yankees really at right now?

[Hammerin Hank]

Originally posted by Mattingly
If the Yanks wanted to spend to no end, they'd have put Bonds at $25m on the payroll last winter. ARod at the same price would've also have been on the payroll.


When should we expect to see Bonds on the team?

[Hammerin Hank]

Originally posted by Zito75

Personally I feel that A-Rod and Georgie Porgie are on the track to ruin the game.

Now they've teamed up.

[Mattingly]

Originally posted by Hammerin Hank
When should we expect to see Bonds on the team? Never! He had his chance to be on that 1993 team, just like Paulie O'Neill. However, he didn't bite, and George wouldn't bite when he'd wanted $100m/4 yrs when he was an FA.

As to Alex, we got him at a big discount, so George only paid retail, not wholesale.

[Mattingly]

Originally posted by Hammerin Hank
Now they've teamed up. Just remember that individual player salaries, not some spreadsheet forecasting, is what fuels all this. Just remember the name of the man who, IMO, is the last $100m player:

Albert Pujols.

So long as we don't see any future $100m players, I don't see how anyone can cost that much, and all on the same team, which would likely be long after George either retires or (well, you know).

Perhaps we'll get Carlos Beltran f/CF next winter, or trade for him this summer, but I can't see him, and Vidro, and tons of others. Unless you're counting have every single one of the starting 9 having a $20m/yr salary, then keep adding another $20m/yr player every single year, I can't fathom a payroll so obscenely high (like it's not there already).

[Hammerin Hank]

Originally posted by Mattingly
I can't fathom a payroll so obscenely high

I bet they would say the same thing about today's payrolls.

[J W]

Yeah...

In 2015, when inflation will dictate the dollar bill as the lowest form of currency...

Hey, ya never know...

[Mattingly]

Originally posted by Hammerin Hank
I bet they would say the same thing about today's payrolls. Had you not removed the parenthetical directly following my partial quote you'd used, you may have noticed I'd already acknowledged the payroll was currently pretty high. Being more complete in your quotes may provide better context of what people are trying to say, if you think about it.

That said, if the players' salaries' don't increase from today's standards, I don't see the payroll escalating beyond today's at the rate you project.

To look at it in pure "per player" scenario, if you divide $187.5m (on the high end of what today's payroll is), you'd *AVERAGE* $7.5m/player out of 25 men. If you had $1b, that would require $40m/player out of 25 men.

Now then, in 11 years, would you mind naming who will be the $40m *MEN* playing for the Yankees? This also indicates that not only will this not be the highest-paid Yankee, but merely the *AVERAGE* of what 25 Yankee players will make in 2015. This would indicate that the highest-paid Yankee player would make at least $60-70m/yr.

Currently, the highest-paid Yankee, Alex Rodriguez (based upon total salary averaging $25.2m/yr), makes >3x the Yankee average of <$7.5m/yr. Do you believe that in 2015, a single Yankee ballplayer will make 3x what the *AVERAGE* Yankee player would make in 2015 ($40m/yr)? Do you honestly believe this will actually happen?

Please demonstrate likelihood of this occurrence becoming reality. If not, then I consider all logic resulting upon this presumption to be greatly flawed, especially if player salaries don't increase at the same rate that they have in the past decade.

[MudvilleMike]

I actually see the Yankees payroll declining (adjusted for inflation) over the next decade. The Yanks will remain #1 in payroll, but the disparity won't be so great. In the era of 8 playoff teams, money can't guarantee a ring by any stretch. They key is spending enough money to have an excellent team and having a good chance at making the playoffs. You don't need $200M for that.

[mikey_s]

They haven't yet?

.....oh sometime around the trading deadline.

[Mattingly]

Originally posted by mikey_s
They haven't yet?

.....oh sometime around the trading deadline. Don't worry, George will have Beltran, Torii *AND* Andruw in CF, then Vidro *AND* Boone at 2B. It'll happen right now and before July 31st, too! :D :)

[mikey_s]

Actually when you think about the article you posted he should probably get Benson, Sheets, Johnson, Millwood.... then he could save their arms and let them go 5 innings each start with the other "bums"doing mop up for 3 and Rivera for 1.

Wouldn't need no stinking middle relief. ;)

[webmaster]

Here are the payrolls for all teams playing in 2004. The source used is USA Today:

New York Yankees $ 184,193,950
Boston Red Sox $ 127,298,500
Anaheim Angels $ 100,534,667
New York Mets $ 96,660,970
Philadelphia Phillies $ 93,219,167
Los Angeles Dodgers $ 92,902,001
Chicago Cubs $ 90,560,000
Atlanta Braves $ 90,182,500
St. Louis Cardinals $ 83,228,333
San Francisco Giants $ 82,019,166
Seattle Mariners $ 81,515,834
Houston Astros $ 75,397,000
Arizona Diamondbacks $ 69,780,750
Colorado Rockies $ 65,445,167
Chicago White Sox $ 65,212,500
Oakland Athletics $ 59,425,667
San Diego Padres $ 55,384,833
Texas Rangers $ 55,050,417
Minnesota Twins $ 53,585,000
Baltimore Orioles $ 51,623,333
Toronto Blue Jays $ 50,017,000
Kansas City Royals $ 47,609,000
Detroit Tigers $ 46,832,000
Cincinnati Reds $ 46,615,250
Florida Marlins $ 42,143,042
Montreal Expos $ 41,197,500
Cleveland Indians $ 34,319,300
Pittsburgh Pirates $ 32,227,929
Tampa Bay Devil Rays $ 29,556,667
Milwaukee Brewers $ 27,528,500

The weird thing is I don't feel upset that any team spends the money they think they need to win. They made it (though it came from us), they can spend it. Though I will admit I do like to see the "regular" teams make a run for it against the big dogs. What I do get upset about is that the minimum wage paid a big league ballplayer is more than I'm going to make in five years of work or that a typical small contract exceeds the amount I'll make over the course of my 25-year career. That part makes it a bit tough, but I love the game nonetheless.

Sean

[bigtime39]

While we all know the Yankees' payroll isn't going to hit $1 billion, what we DO know is that, with their resources, if they need to go to a quarter billion, this year or any other, THEY CAN, and, as long as George III is in charge, they will if they feel they have to...
...and nobody else can.
For as long as that remains true, the rest of the teams are going to have to be very good at fighting fire with water: for every dollar they don't have, they'd better apply an ounce of brainpower, and hope to catch lightning in a bottle.
And, yes, the rich will get richer this summer, when Beltran heads to the Vault in the Bronx...
...more's the pity. I'm really amused by the thought of a $180 million team with a 2B playing SS, an SS playing 3B, and a right side of the infield so defensively challenged as to be barely AA caliber.
They're built like a rec league softball team: "we can't catch, but we sure can hit!"
:laugh

[Mattingly]

Originally posted by bigtime39
While we all know the Yankees' payroll isn't going to hit $1 billion, what we DO know is that, with their resources, if they need to go to a quarter billion, this year or any other, THEY CAN, and, as long as George III is in charge, they will if they feel they have to...
...and nobody else can.
For as long as that remains true, the rest of the teams are going to have to be very good at fighting fire with water: for every dollar they don't have, they'd better apply an ounce of brainpower, and hope to catch lightning in a bottle.
And, yes, the rich will get richer this summer, when Beltran heads to the Vault in the Bronx...
...more's the pity. I'm really amused by the thought of a $180 million team with a 2B playing SS, an SS playing 3B, and a right side of the infield so defensively challenged as to be barely AA caliber.
They're built like a rec league softball team: "we can't catch, but we sure can hit!"
:laugh Let's see what would happen if *ALL* the most expensive contracts in baseball were assembled under one team, at least in 2004, based upon approximate salary average (including bonus). I'm counting only starters, not the full roster:

LF: Barry Bonds ($20m)
CF: Bernie Williams, Andruw Jones (~$12.5m)
RF: Sammy Sosa (~$17m)
3B: Alex Rodriguez ($25.2m)
SS: Derek Jeter ($18.9m)
2B: ?
1B: Jason Giambi, Carlos Delgado, Jim Thome (~$17m)
C: Jorge Posada ($9m)
CL: Mariano Rivera ($10.5m)

Who are the most expensive starting pitchers? Pedro makes $17.5m, then I guess that Randy Johnson (~16m), Kevin Brown ($15m), Mussina ($14.5), but I can't figure out who's just below this. Curt Schilling?

[Hammerin Hank]

Originally posted by webmaster
Here are the payrolls for all teams playing in 2004. The source used is USA Today:

New York Yankees $ 184,193,950

Wow, that's well ahead of the pace I was using. They might make it to a billion sooner than I thought.:eek:

[bigtime39]

Originally posted by Mattingly
Let's see what would happen if *ALL* the most expensive contracts in baseball were assembled under one team, at least in 2004, based upon approximate salary average (including bonus). I'm counting only starters, not the full roster:

LF: Barry Bonds ($20m)
CF: Bernie Williams, Andruw Jones (~$12.5m)
RF: Sammy Sosa (~$17m)
3B: Alex Rodriguez ($25.2m)
SS: Derek Jeter ($18.9m)
2B: ?
1B: Jason Giambi, Carlos Delgado, Jim Thome (~$17m)
C: Jorge Posada ($9m)
CL: Mariano Rivera ($10.5m)

Who are the most expensive starting pitchers? Pedro makes $17.5m, then I guess that Randy Johnson (~16m), Kevin Brown ($15m), Mussina ($14.5), but I can't figure out who's just below this. Curt Schilling?

Matt:
Did you not finish that post? I was waiting for a TOTAL, a LARGE, ROUND figure that somehow added up to more than the current Yankee$ payroll...:laugh
Seriously, though, was this team chosen specifically to prove that defense means NOTHING?:eek:
I guess, however, with the way the O's defense has looked for the past week or so, I'd better shut up on that score!:D

[bigtime39]

Originally posted by webmaster
Here are the payrolls for all teams playing in 2004. The source used is USA Today:

New York Yankees $ 184,193,950

Texas Rangers $ 55,050,417


Do these figures count how much the Rangers are paying the richest team in baseball's shortstop, who is playing 3B, so a natural 2B can continue to play shortstop?:D

[Mattingly]

Originally posted by bigtime39
Matt:
Did you not finish that post? I was waiting for a TOTAL, a LARGE, ROUND figure that somehow added up to more than the current Yankee$ payroll...:laugh
Seriously, though, was this team chosen specifically to prove that defense means NOTHING?:eek:
I guess, however, with the way the O's defense has looked for the past week or so, I'd better shut up on that score!:D Not quite. I should've added the totals. I chose it merely to see what would happen if a team -- *ANY TEAM* -- were made up exclusively of the most expensive player for each position. Sorry I got lazy in the end, as it got a little busy by me. :o :(

Here's what I have, from what I think are about the most expensive contracts on a per-year basis. Most are based upon average yearly range, while others, like Unit's, are based upon how much he's making in 2004, as I'm not totally familiar w/how much his contract is for.

Using these 14 players, I did an "@ SUM" in Excel 2002 to get these results.

POS PLAYER SALARY
LF Barry Bonds $20.0
CF A Jones/B Williams $12.5
RF Sammy Sosa $17.0
3B Alex Rodriguez $25.2
SS Derek Jeter $18.9
2B Jose Vidro $ 9.0
1B J Giambi/C Delgado/J Thome $17.0
C Jorge Posada $ 9.0
SP Pedro Martinez $17.5
SP Randy Johnson $16.5
SP Kevin Brown $15.0
SP Mike Mussina $14.5
SP Curt Schilling $12.0
CL Mariano Rivera $10.5
TOTAL $214.6

[Mattingly]

Originally posted by bigtime39
Do these figures count how much the Rangers are paying the richest team in baseball's shortstop, who is playing 3B, so a natural 2B can continue to play shortstop?:D Yes, they do!

*bonks bigtime39 upside the head once!* :D :p

[bigtime39]

Originally posted by Mattingly
Yes, they do!

*bonks bigtime39 upside the head once!* :D :p

OUCH!:D

[mikey_s]

Originally posted by Mattingly
Not quite. I should've added the totals. I chose it merely to see what would happen if a team -- *ANY TEAM* -- were made up exclusively of the most expensive player for each position. Sorry I got lazy in the end, as it got a little busy by me. :o :(

Here's what I have, from what I think are about the most expensive contracts on a per-year basis. Most are based upon average yearly range, while others, like Unit's, are based upon how much he's making in 2004, as I'm not totally familiar w/how much his contract is for.

Using these 14 players, I did an "@ SUM" in Excel 2002 to get these results.

POS PLAYER SALARY
LF Barry Bonds $20.0
CF A Jones/B Williams $12.5
RF Sammy Sosa $17.0
3B Alex Rodriguez $25.2
SS Derek Jeter $18.9
2B Jose Vidro $ 9.0
1B J Giambi/C Delgado/J Thome $17.0
C Jorge Posada $ 9.0
SP Pedro Martinez $17.5
SP Randy Johnson $16.5
SP Kevin Brown $15.0
SP Mike Mussina $14.5
SP Curt Schilling $12.0
CL Mariano Rivera $10.5
TOTAL $214.6

Actually make that closer to 300 Million since you are missing 10 guys and given the Yanks propensity to overpay their bench figure another 5-6 Mil per bench guy and PRESTO 300 Mil.

The sick thing is the Yanks could actually afford that payroll. :(

[ElHalo]

Yeah, there's really the thing. Diminishing returns. Once you're paying $20 mill a year to every starting position player, starting pitcher, and your closer... there's only so much more you can do. It doesn't help anybody to have Bonds, Sosa, and Manny in the outfield at almost 20 mill per, and then have Beltran, Pujols, etc., on the bench at 18 mill per. Once the Yanks get massive contracts at every starting position (which they are a center fielder (after Bernie's contract runs out next year), a second baseman, a left fielder, and two starting pitchers away from), there's really no place else to put massive contracts. So I don't think you'll be seeing even a $500 mill payroll any time soon.

[mikey_s]

Originally posted by ElHalo
Yeah, there's really the thing. Diminishing returns. Once you're paying $20 mill a year to every starting position player, starting pitcher, and your closer... there's only so much more you can do. It doesn't help anybody to have Bonds, Sosa, and Manny in the outfield at almost 20 mill per, and then have Beltran, Pujols, etc., on the bench at 18 mill per. Once the Yanks get massive contracts at every starting position (which they are a center fielder (after Bernie's contract runs out next year), a second baseman, a left fielder, and two starting pitchers away from), there's really no place else to put massive contracts. So I don't think you'll be seeing even a $500 mill payroll any time soon.

For the most part yes.

However consider Goegies actions when an injury takes one of the stars away.

He could easily end up with 5 or 6 "bench"players who were brought in due to an injury at 15 Mil per. Thants another 100.

But you are right about the diminishing returns.

To hit a billion it would require 25 guys making 40 mil per.
500 Mil comes out to 25 guys making 20 Mil. That is not out of the realm of the possible but is unlikely.

However that 300 Mil mark is in the realm and a 250 is probably in the future.

[bigtime39]

Originally posted by mikey_s

However that 300 Mil mark is in the realm and a 250 is probably in the future.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if the "future" is this year...in fact, when you count revenue sharing and luxury taxes, THE FUTURE IS NOW!

(Thanks, George Allen!)

[Sandman]

If you're looking for most expensive, Ramirez should be #2 and Mo Vaughn should be #3 :)

[Mattingly]

Originally posted by Sandman
If you're looking for most expensive, Ramirez should be #2 and Mo Vaughn should be #3 :) I'd forgotten about them. Manny should be tied with Barry at $20m, and Mo with Giambi, Delgado and Thome at $17m.

Hey, you think George will have one at home and one for the road of each? That's be some bench with Pujols, Thome and Sosa, huh? :D :p

[craig3410]

As a rule of thumb, when a team on your baseball video game is less stacked than in real life, something's wrong. :D

[Mattingly]

Originally posted by craig3410
As a rule of thumb, when a team on your baseball video game is less stacked than in real life, something's wrong. :D In that case, get a new video game. There's a new one out. I think it's called "The Evil Empire -- How the Yankees Broke the Hearts of America!"

They'll bash, mash, trash, sell out your stadium (all so people can hope to see them lose), then win the series. Coming to a ballpark near you! (bring money!)

[Hammerin Hank]

I'd hate to say it but so far the Yankees are right on course for when I said they'd reach a billion. And that was a few years ago too. It's becoming much less a joke about the Yankee payroll and more a reality.

[Mattingly]

I hate to say it, Hank, but the first two years are correct. Right now, I'm hoping that the Yanks leave Beltran to either the Astros, Mets or Cubs. I'm not too sure who they'll go after, and if Giambi were to either be bought out or have his contract voided (snowball's chance in you-know-where of either happening), that would at least make it look slightly less crazy by comparison.

Here's to hoping that we can trim a few tens of millions off the 2006 payroll.

[west coast orange and black]

Here's to hoping that we can trim a few tens of millions off the 2006 payroll.
doesn't georgey-boy consider it his duty to far outspend everyone else?

[BX180]

Can we have Ivan platoon with Posada at homeplate? Pretty please!!! :ughh

[Captain Cold Nose]

I hate to say it, Hank, but the first two years are correct. Right now, I'm hoping that the Yanks leave Beltran to either the Astros, Mets or Cubs. I'm not too sure who they'll go after, and if Giambi were to either be bought out or have his contract voided (snowball's chance in you-know-where of either happening), that would at least make it look slightly less crazy by comparison.

Here's to hoping that we can trim a few tens of millions off the 2006 payroll.

Someone on ESPN Radio this morning said the Yankees have about reached their limit of what they are willing to spend on players. While that may seem very funny, maybe they are going to start taking a more responsible approach to spending all that YES money.

[KenFougere]

When will the Yankees will reach a $1 billion payroll?
http://forums.rajah.com/images/smilies/scratchchin.gif - {Let me see.} What time is it now? . . . :cool:

[Mattingly]

Someone on ESPN Radio this morning said the Yankees have about reached their limit of what they are willing to spend on players. While that may seem very funny, maybe they are going to start taking a more responsible approach to spending all that YES money.When you're about 50% above what the next highest team's payroll appears to be, there *HAS* to be a point of diminishing returns. Yanks or no Yanks, if it were $150-$180m, I say they could've gotten Beltran. Right now, several guys making $10-15m on the same team seems crazy compared to what other teams are paying, compared to us.

Most teams, if they had Jeter, would've tried for a chaper deal to keep him, and would've tried paying less to Posada. Getting Giambi would've been considered a luxury, rather than a must-have. After that, fathoming the thought of then getting A-Rod, striving for RJ, those would've been thoughts which are usually followed by one's alarm clock going off early when the rooster begins to crow.

Before the Yankee payroll can even begin to go southward, George III will have to turn his interests away from acquiring the top FAs next offseason.

While I'll readily admit I wouldn't mind one bit a trade for Sheets if his contract extension offers were rejected by the player, I'm surprised that this season's big acquisition (and resulting press conference) was a trade, rather than another FA. George's prior MO would dictate that it would be Beltran brought in, and the upping of the payroll by $17m each of the next 7 years. After all, he could be seen as Bernie's eventual replacement.

Next winter could be seen as an even bigger example of where the Yankee spending is headed. If skimming from the cream of the top-tiered crop of FAs (while ignoring his own crop on the farm), then you're piling on endlessly. If George goes after very productive pitchers, position players on the "B" level, but who are going to give them all of their worth and at a lower cost, I wouldn't mind that.

Two seasons ago, if each of Unit, Beltran and Delgado were available (pretending Giambi weren't here), I'd wonder if George would just want to take all 3, but may "settle" for only 2, and if so, then which 2? Next winter, I'll only hope that George has had his fill for an ever-bulging budget. Unless he's got Bill Gates as his financial backer--and an unlimited budget--I do think that George will spend a lot more pragmatically.

If the Yanks can get a CF the caliber of Andruw Jones, Torii Hunter or Juan Pierre, then perhaps they'd have filled their need for a player w/o overstuffing on their payroll, which is perhaps one thing leading to the ever-bulging Yankee payroll: overdoing in one spot, but ignoring another.

[Mattingly]

http://forums.rajah.com/images/smilies/scratchchin.gif - {Let me see.} What time is it now? . . . :cool: It's not soup time, Ken. No soup (or supe) for you!

[bigtime39]

With their farm system a smoking ruin, the only way the Yankee$ can keep players on the field for the next few years is by buying them. Jeter's bitter complaint that "it's not the same team" after the ALCS loss last year is going to get louder and truer as this bunch gets older and older.
The only way the Yankee$ are going to be able to build another 1996-2001 dynasty is to get George III suspended again, so the team can rebuild its core.
Yeah, the AL East is bought and wrapped up for this year...after that, all bets are off.

[ElHalo]

Next winter could be seen as an even bigger example of where the Yankee spending is headed. If skimming from the cream of the top-tiered crop of FAs (while ignoring his own crop on the farm), then you're piling on endlessly. If George goes after very productive pitchers, position players on the "B" level, but who are going to give them all of their worth and at a lower cost, I wouldn't mind that.

You're forgetting something.

After the 2005 season, these two contracts come off the books: Bernie Williams ($12.5 mill per), Kevin Brown ($17 mill per). That's $30 million that Steinbrenner gets, without raising payroll a dime, to land a star CF'er (which shouldn't cost that much, since nobody deserving of Vlad Guerrero money is coming up next year) and a starting pitcher (Tim Hudson, I'm guessing).

[Mattingly]

You're forgetting something.

After the 2005 season, these two contracts come off the books: Bernie Williams ($12.5 mill per), Kevin Brown ($17 mill per). That's $30 million that Steinbrenner gets, without raising payroll a dime, to land a star CF'er (which shouldn't cost that much, since nobody deserving of Vlad Guerrero money is coming up next year) and a starting pitcher (Tim Hudson, I'm guessing).I figure that Bernie may come back as a DH, and since Brown's contract is untradeable, it all depends upon how well he does. So long as Bernie can hit and run, I don't see this being his final season. Hence the "?" in that thread under the NYY forum about whether this would be his final season.

Pencil in Bernabe for $5m next season, and Brown likely won't hang up his gloves. If Boomer was given a 2-year deal by Boston, and Ancient El Duque Man, a 2-yr deal by the ChiSox, then those social security checks and the pension plan won't exactly be collected anytime soon.

I'm not sure the Braves would part with Tim Hudson anytime soon. They'd be crazy to, unless TWC (their current owners, IIRC) are really pressing for cash.

With Milwaukee's $223m sale, it all depends upon what they're doing with Sheets. If, like Oakland, they don't think they can re-sign him, as well as Minnesota and Santana, I can see George making a big run for at least one of them.

If Giambi's not very productive, they'd definitely need a slugging 1B. I wouldn't say in the $17m that he, Thome and Delgado have made in the past, but I somehow see them paying $10m for someone who'd made $4m in the past and had a career year (which happens to coincide w/his walk year).

This will be Matsui's 3rd and final year of his contract, and presuming he'll be easily re-signed or given an extension this winter, all depends. He could likely get $9m or more.

Posada won't last forever, so within the next two years, I can see the Yanks looking for a replacement. Whether it's a star or someone very competent depends upon how much the Yanks want. If a star pitcher on the level of Pudge or Varitek (but not necessarily them), that'll be costly.

Decisions, decisions. All of them can be costly.

[ElHalo]

I figure that Bernie may come back as a DH, and since Brown's contract is untradeable, it all depends upon how well he does. So long as Bernie can hit and run, I don't see this being his final season. Hence the "?" in that thread under the NYY forum about whether this would be his final season.

Pencil in Bernabe for $5m next season, and Brown likely won't hang up his gloves. If Boomer was given a 2-year deal by Boston, and Ancient El Duque Man, a 2-yr deal by the ChiSox, then those social security checks and the pension plan won't exactly be collected anytime soon.

I'm not sure the Braves would part with Tim Hudson anytime soon. They'd be crazy to, unless TWC (their current owners, IIRC) are really pressing for cash.

About Tim Hudson: He's a Free Agent after 2005, which is why Oakland traded him in the first place. I can't imagine that Atlanta would be able to keep up with Steinbrenner in a bidding war for his services.

As to keeping Bernie... where? He can't play CF in 2006. We're already paying Giambi $20 mill a year to DH (unless he plays himself out of the major leagues this year, in which case we'll be paying him $20 mill a year to sit on his sofa). Cashman's already said that playing Bernie at 1B is not an option. We have Matsui and Sheffield at the corner OF positions... and while Matsui moving to CF might work in a pinch, he's really not good enough defensively to be a long term solution there. There's just not a roster spot available for Bernie, unless he'd be willing to take over Ruben Sierra's role as the first guy off the bench (which I hope he will be). But that's not $5 mill a year.

[Yankeebiscuitfan]

About Tim Hudson: He's a Free Agent after 2005, which is why Oakland traded him in the first place. I can't imagine that Atlanta would be able to keep up with Steinbrenner in a bidding war for his services.

As to keeping Bernie... where? He can't play CF in 2006. We're already paying Giambi $20 mill a year to DH (unless he plays himself out of the major leagues this year, in which case we'll be paying him $20 mill a year to sit on his sofa). Cashman's already said that playing Bernie at 1B is not an option. We have Matsui and Sheffield at the corner OF positions... and while Matsui moving to CF might work in a pinch, he's really not good enough defensively to be a long term solution there. There's just not a roster spot available for Bernie, unless he'd be willing to take over Ruben Sierra's role as the first guy off the bench (which I hope he will be). But that's not $5 mill a year.

Isn't Sheffield an option for CF? Shane Spencer or Bubba Crosby perhaps?

[Hammerin Hank]

For 2006, I was off by $50.2 million from the prediction I made in 2003. Maybe I'll be closer for this year.

[Hammerin Hank]

I seriously doubt it would increase to $200m in 2005

Said in 2003, Mattingly. It was a good prediction, wasn't it? :D

[Mattingly]

Said in 2003, Mattingly. It was a good prediction, wasn't it? :D
My prediction on when the Yankees will reach a $1 billion payroll:

***

2008 - 340,875,905
2007 - 288,877,886
So just how soon will the $288m payroll take into effect?

Seems cute, but $1b will never happen. I don't see the Yanks getting a crazy number of superstars every single year.

Oh yeah, with the lux tax, the amount they'd spend for each hi-priced player wouldn't pay for itself infinitely.

[ChrisLDuncan]

Doesn't this belong in BI? I mean if over/under, buy or sell, and bandwaggoning belong there...then this does too.

[Mattingly]

Doesn't this belong in BI? I mean if over/under, buy or sell, and bandwaggoning belong there...then this does too.
Agreed and moved to BI.

[Hammerin Hank]

Doesn't this belong in BI? I mean if over/under, buy or sell, and bandwaggoning belong there...then this does too.

That may be, but in 2003 we didn't have a BI forum. Sorry for the misplacement.

[Hammerin Hank]

So just how soon will the $288m payroll take into effect?

Seems cute, but $1b will never happen. I don't see the Yanks getting a crazy number of superstars every single year.

Oh yeah, with the lux tax, the amount they'd spend for each hi-priced player wouldn't pay for itself infinitely.

The thread was initially intended as some dark humor, but I'm amazed that for the first three years I actually underestimated the payroll.

[milladrive]

Hehe, this is a great thread, HH. I'm actually interested to see how close you were a few years from now. :D

[Old Sweater]

Doesn't this belong in BI? I mean if over/under, buy or sell, and bandwaggoning belong there...then this does too.

fantasy section.

[tigers527]

Yeah...

In 2015, when inflation will dictate the dollar bill as the lowest form of currency...

Hey, ya never know...

And all the Latin Players will demand to be paid in Pesos (the Mexican ones) :D Just for the currency stability.

[Brownie31]

And all the Latin Players will demand to be paid in Pesos (the Mexican ones) :D Just for the currency stability.

LOL;)

Brownie31