Pitching by batting position.

[scorekeeper]

The attached is a brief report of how our P’s this year have fared, relative to the opponent's batting position. When I looked at it, a couple things jumped out at me.

The 1st one was that the hitters in the #7 batting position had the highest BA of all the positions.

Another one was that the distribution of walks seemed out of whack. I don’t understand why the middle 3 positions would have less walks/HBPs than either the first 3 or the last 3, or why the number of walks/HBPs for the first 3 would be relatively so amazingly high.

Any thoughts?:confused:

[AgentX]

I didn't see an attachment, but I can offer some reasoning for your observations.

The top of the order is usually chosen for speed or OBP. If a manager opts for the latter, then you'll generally find the most patient hitters in the front 3. You'll also find some smarter hitting in the bottom 3, especially when compared to the middle of the order. Middle spots tend to fall to power hitters, and power tends to strike out more often.

The 7 hitter is an interesting anomaly. At the top of the bottom, he follows the power in the lineup and probably sees better pitches as a result. You also have to recognize that the #7 is probably going to be working harder to move up in the order and is more likely to hit in the midst of a rally against a struggling pitcher.

Of course, I can't say that any of these are actual reasons.

[skipper5]

What I've seen in HS baseball, which may be diff. from what others have seen, is that the 3-4-5 batters generally see a disproportionate and predictable amount of offspeed stuff and fastballs away, while the bottom three can sit on fastballs. If a capable hitter found himself in the 7 spot, he could enjoy a nice meal there.

Why the walks/HBP's for the first three would be so amazingly high?
--these are the elite batters who have had a knack for controlling the strike zone and getting a pitch-to-hit ever since little league
--in their first at-bats, the 1-2-3 batters are facing a starting pitcher who often is not yet in his groove, and in general has been instructed to pitch shy-of-the-bats of the other team's top hitters (I think the discrepancy would be less if HS were played with wood bats, where the penalty for a "mistake" pitch is not so high)

[scorekeeper]

Good grief, I just noticed I didn't attach the darn attachment!

Sorry.:ooo:

[scorekeeper]

I didn't see an attachment, but I can offer some reasoning for your observations.

The top of the order is usually chosen for speed or OBP. If a manager opts for the latter, then you'll generally find the most patient hitters in the front 3. You'll also find some smarter hitting in the bottom 3, especially when compared to the middle of the order. Middle spots tend to fall to power hitters, and power tends to strike out more often.

The 7 hitter is an interesting anomaly. At the top of the bottom, he follows the power in the lineup and probably sees better pitches as a result. You also have to recognize that the #7 is probably going to be working harder to move up in the order and is more likely to hit in the midst of a rally against a struggling pitcher.

Of course, I can't say that any of these are actual reasons.

Doesn’t matter if they’re actual reasons. They’re reasonable conclusions. Since I was so stupid as to forget the attachment, I’ll try to answer based on the pitiful information you had to work with. My apologies.

The only thing I find hard to accommodate about them is, the data comes from 16 games against 12 different teams, and comes from 6 different pitchers. That makes it difficult for me to believe that most if not all 12 of those teams were put together the same way.

[cdn_ball]

Generally, all line ups are constructed the same way. OBP + speed for 1,2. Good contact, gap power 3,5. power, but K's at 4. 6 and 7 are huge bats in any order. These players normally have to handle a good stick, and clean up any messes left by the "meat" of the order. Personally i normally pencil in our weakest hitter at 8, and a "2nd" lead off at 9. Maybe all the teams in your league just like to place a nice sleeper in their order.

[scorekeeper]

What I've seen in HS baseball, which may be diff. from what others have seen, is that the 3-4-5 batters generally see a disproportionate and predictable amount of offspeed stuff and fastballs away, while the bottom three can sit on fastballs. If a capable hitter found himself in the 7 spot, he could enjoy a nice meal there.

That’s an observation with which I concur, however, I don’t find the proportion of FB’s those hitters see as being disproportionate at all. In fact, if anything I’d think they’d see even more, and the only thing I can see that keeps that from happening is, breaking balls are much harder to control. Also, many HS pitchers, even the pretty good ones, don’t have a decent command of other off speed pitches.

Why the walks/HBP's for the first three would be so amazingly high?
--these are the elite batters who have had a knack for controlling the strike zone and getting a pitch-to-hit ever since little league
--in their first at-bats, the 1-2-3 batters are facing a starting pitcher who often is not yet in his groove, and in general has been instructed to pitch shy-of-the-bats of the other team's top hitters (I think the discrepancy would be less if HS were played with wood bats, where the penalty for a "mistake" pitch is not so high)

Those would be reasonable assumptions, if they held true over time. But, if you check this attachment, you’ll see something vastly different. This one includes this season, and the two years previous to this one. When I make comparisons like that, I have little choice but to question what’s changed?

[skipper5]

Scorekeeper,
First of all, thanks for providing these kinds of stats, they're very interesting for us HS baseball geeks.

I hadn't seen the attachment before I commented. After seeing it, IMO sampling is way too small to draw conclusions about the success of the batters in the seventh batting position.

If five of the 15 hits were groundball outs to the SS, the 7th place hitters would be batting .232. With a small sampling, and a result that defies reason, I'd blame the small sampling.

edited: having looked at the second attachment, my new conclusion is that the seven spot is unique: they aren't the worst hitter in the lineup (that's #8), but they get more hittable fastballs and have less pressure to perform than batters higher in the order. Thus, over 100 at-bats, they get 24 hits (.240 avg.) instead of 20 (.200 avg.)

[scorekeeper]

Scorekeeper,
First of all, thanks for providing these kinds of stats, they're very interesting for us HS baseball geeks.

My pleasure. Its my way of trying to bring a little reality to the HSBB world. I just wish I wasn’t the only one tracking this stuff. I honestly believe a lot of BELIEFS could be either proven or dispelled by looking at data. ;)

I hadn't seen the attachment before I commented. After seeing it, IMO sampling is way too small to draw conclusions about the success of the batters in the seventh batting position.

If five of the 15 hits were groundball outs to the SS, the 7th place hitters would be batting .232. With a small sampling, and a result that defies reason, I'd blame the small sampling.

HMMMMM. Well reasoned, but I don’t think even as small a sample as that should be ignored completely if there is such a reason defying result. But it sure does give a pretty good example of why using hits, prolly a good 10-20% of which are truly subjective, shouldn’t be the only measure of a hitter’s success. Soooooo. Thanx to you, I added OBP, just to get a better look. ;)

edited: having looked at the second attachment, my new conclusion is that the seven spot is unique: they aren't the worst hitter in the lineup (that's #8), but they get more hittable fastballs and have less pressure to perform than batters higher in the order. Thus, over 100 at-bats, they get 24 hits (.240 avg.) instead of 20 (.200 avg.)

Well now, you sure like to test me don’tcha? Let’s see if I can provide any proof at all about how much “pressure” a batting position might have relative to the others. Unfortunately, since I don’t track opponents batters like I do ours, I can’t squeeze out as many details. But, I can use our offense to get some numbers.

Take a look at the attachment and you’ll see a couple of things by batting position for this season, and for our combined history. I also stuck in OBP onto the pitcher’s data too. Is there some what you can think of that I can either prove or disprove how much pressure a batter might be under? If I have the data, I’ll give it a bloody go!:atthepc

[Cannonball]

Generally, all line ups are constructed the same way. OBP + speed for 1,2. Good contact, gap power 3,5. power, but K's at 4. 6 and 7 are huge bats in any order. These players normally have to handle a good stick, and clean up any messes left by the "meat" of the order. Personally i normally pencil in our weakest hitter at 8, and a "2nd" lead off at 9. Maybe all the teams in your league just like to place a nice sleeper in their order.

We think a lot alike. I put my fastest runner and best "eye" as leadoff. They have to have speed since I'm going to have them steal second when they get on. We work on their discipline at the plate and they are "motivated" to never swing at anything out of the zone. My #2 hitter generally is my best bunter. After we steal second, we're bunting them to 3rd. My #2 has to have a good eye and is sacrificing a portion of their at bat for the runner. Need a good team player here. My #3 is my best hitter. I concure with my worst hitter hitting in the 8th slot and another leadoff at 9.

Lineups have to fit the personality of the coach. I personally couldn't stand to have a runner on 1st if I could have them on 2nd. So, we ran a lot and averaged between 150 and 200 steals per year as a team.

It's the same with pitching philosophy. A team's pitching philosophy will determine a lot about your stats. Do they pitch "forward" or "backward?" What is the caliber of team that your playing? Those are all factors.

[rkbenn]

IMO, the opposing pitchers are going to be too cute with the 1, 2 hitters, mixing it up, as a result the command of all their pitches may not be there. They get on base, and you take away a number of pitches and now it's more fastballs to the 3-5 hitters, because they don't want to walk or have the speedy runners steal. If teams are slow starters (don't get it done in the 1st inning) then you can put that 5, 6, 7 hitters in that position for seeing more fastballs.

It would be interesting to see how teams do in the 1st inning against you.

[scorekeeper]

… Maybe all the teams in your league just like to place a nice sleeper in their order.

Only about half of our games are against LEAGUE opponents, and roughly a fourth of those that aren’t, are against teams in lower divisions too. Another 4-8 games a season are against teams over 100 miles away too. ;)

[scorekeeper]

… Lineups have to fit the personality of the coach. I personally couldn't stand to have a runner on 1st if I could have them on 2nd. So, we ran a lot and averaged between 150 and 200 steals per year as a team. …

WOWSERS, and double WOWSERS! Our team is considered an extremely aggressive team on the bases, and we only attempt about 100 SB’s a season. I can’t imagine attempting double what we do, especially considering there’s about 30 WP/PBs against us too.

At the rate we’re goin’, this season we’ll have 400-500 total batters reach base in any way what-so-ever. Its just hard for me to comprehend two thirds to a half of those runners attempting steals. It sure must’ve been exciting!