Luis Gonzalez-How Far From Hall?

[The Commissioner]

A few years ago, I would have laughed at this even being pondered. I mean after all, he may suddenly be having a few excellent seasons, but surely he is too old to start racking up the numbers which could make him a serious contender for Cooperstown. However, half way into this season I am starting to take another look at his career stats and depending on how long he plays this may not be such a far-fetched theory after all. As I write this Gonzalez's current ML totals are 264 HR, 1013 runs scored, 1069 RBI, and a career .287 BA. The thing going against him is mainly time. He will turn 36 in September. He doesn't appear to be showing any signs of slowing down yet, though. How much longer will he have to play and what kind of totals will he have to put up before he can be considered as a serious candidate? Would 350 HR, 1300 RBI and a .290 average be enough to make him a viable candidate? He may have his fifth straight 100 RBI season this year. Would perhaps 7 in a row have him in consideration? Would he require another monster season like he had in 2001 or just a few more really really good years? Or perhaps is there just no way he will ever make it?

[Captain Cold Nose]

One of the HOF's most egregious mistakes was inducting way too many players from the offensively explosive era of the 20's and 30's. That's a big reason why I'm not so quick to embrace everybody from the last few years who have put up the big numbers.

Like that era, there are people who stand out, like Bonds, who would have been great in any time period. Gonzalez has been a fine player and I believe the trade that sent him from Detroit for Karim Garcia will go down as one of the worst of the last quarter of the 20th century. But HOF worthy?

With the numbers the Commish asks about, he would have a .ba of about 10 points higher, but with almost 30 HR less and nearly 400 less RBI than Tony Perez, who many of the informed members of the Fever howl about in derision in regards to his HOF election. Going back to my initial point, while Gonzalez's numbers are good, they don't match up to Sosa, Walker, Piazza, Helton, Bagwell, etc. I say that without having full researched all the numbers, of course, but I'll stand behind my assumption unless proven wrong.

He seems like a genuinely nice guy. But under the weight of the era and measured against his contemporaries, I say he falls short.

[Biggtone23]

He'll get on the ballot but wont get the 5 or 6 votes needed to gain the 5% to stay on for more than one year.

[Cougar]

Too late a start. Gonzalez needs to burnish his resume much more than players over 35 typically do when they're not named Bonds or Aaron.

He needs to crack 1500 RBI to really have any shot at all, and I just think that's pretty unlikely. Mixing in an MVP or two might help, but that's unlikely too.

Good player, but he looks like he'll finish in the group with Rocky Colavito, George Foster, etc. -- guys who were very good and occasionally great, but not great for long enough or good enough overall.

Cold Nose makes a good point about eras. We're going to need to cast a cold eye on some of the guys who began compiling big offensive numbers starting in 1995 or so; they'd best be overwhelming numbers over a long period, because borderline HOF numbers should engender suspicion from this era.

As to whether he'll drop off in the first ballot -- I think it depends on how long Gonzo staves off decline. If he has 3-4 more big years, he could win some support, but I'm skeptical of his ever getting 75% from this BBWAA. If he falls off quickly, he likely will not get 5%.

[Zito75]

Winning the world series with a single up the middle in game 7 was very cool, but he'll never be in the hall. He still needs to have like 10 more SOLID years. Since he's so freakin' injury prone, that'll never happen.

[J W]

I agree with everybody. He's a rare player who's having his best years at the end of his career, but it'll still just be a "spiked" one like so many.

If you want to look at a 50 HR guy in the NL West (not named Bonds), I'd suggest Shawn Green.

[The Commissioner]

Green doesn't have Gonzalez's runs scored or RBI totals yet, but he is over 5 years younger. Hopefully, the Dodgers can acquire someone between now and the time that he reaches his 40th birthday to hit behind him in the lineup.

[Sandman]

Honestly, he doesn't have much of a chance :(. Where does he stand, hits wise?

[The Commissioner]

Here are Green's present stats:
Hits-1305
Runs-766
RBI-752
HR-242
2B-293
BA-.283
SL%-.515
SB-130

He's also 30 years old. A lot is going to depend on how long he winds up playing, how healthy he stays, and if he can continue to produce. If he winds up with 2000 hits and 400 HR, I could see him going in.

[Sandman]

Originally posted by The Commissioner
He's also 30 years old.
He'll be 36 in september.

[yellowdog]

I think the Commissioner was talking about Shawn Green being 30.

[The Commissioner]

Yes, thank you yellowdog. I just realized that I misinterpreted Sandman's question. I thought it was in reference to Green, but can see now he was referring to Gonzalez. Anyway, sorry about the confusion. Here are Gonzalez'z stats:

Hits-1870
Runs-1015
RBI-1070
HR-264
BA-.287
SL%-.488
SB-114

He will be 36 in September.

[PeteF3]

Now I agree that Gonzalez isn't going anywhere near the Hall of Fame unless he goes on a 10-year tear and is still knocking the hell out of the ball in his 40's, but "injury prone"? Last year's shoulder separation was the first significant injury Gonzalez ever suffered. I think he had one stint on the DL in '96, but he's been an extremely durable player throughout his career.

[The Commissioner]

Excellent point. Before he hurt his ribs last year he was the active leader in consecutive games played with 446.

[The Commissioner]

He may still not be close to a Hall of Famer in a lot of people's minds, but here are his current career stats:


Hits-1959
Runs-1060
RBI-1124
HR-275
BA-.288
SL%-.489
SB-115

He also just eneterd the career top 100 list for doubles and extra base hits as well as recording his fifth consecutive season with 100+ RBI. I'm not saying any of that makes him a Hall of Famer, but he doesn't seem to be slowing down either. If he can maintain his present level or even a slightly dimished one for tow or three more years, he might have a pretty good case to be made in his favor.

[J W]

...if he can still produce at a high level by age 42, it may persuade me a bit. Throughout baseball history, there haven't been too many 40-something, all-star caliber players (some of them may have made the team on reputation). That's a special thing to do at such an age.

He's still doing very, very well. He's still driving in 100 runs and scoring 90 on an offense that isn't near the best in the majors... he's hitting .300 and has an OPS over .900... and his numbers have slipped only a tad from his incredible stretch, '99-'01. If his decline continues at this rate, he could very well continue to be an All-Star several years down the road.

Bear in mind that he has the body frame, I think, of a player who could do well in his 40's. He strikes me as tough and wiry, and while he has bulked up a bit, I would certainly not call him a brute of a ballplayer. It looks like he still has a bit of a spring in his step.

But with so many players, they do fine until one year, without warning, they fall of the face of the earth. Ultimately, in the case of Gonzalez, what he's done so far still isn't nearly enough, and I won't have a legitimate opinion of his candidacy until his career is over.

The other player I mentioned, Shawn Green, had a terrible year by his standards. Could he be on the decline already? Or is it because he had no help?

[The Commissioner]

Originally posted by J W
The other player I mentioned, Shawn Green, had a terrible year by his standards. Could he be on the decline already? Or is it because he had no help?

It was because he played the entire season with a torn labrum.
Even though the Dodgers were aware of the problem, they kept quiet about it for most of the season until it leaked out to the press in the last few weeks. Green himself never publily complained once about it. Frankly, I think Green's season, considering the circumstances, was incredible!

As for whether he may be on the decline, that remains to be seen. He underwent surgery on his shoulder immediately after the season. Whether he will ever be able to regain full use of his shoulder and of his power remains to be seen. Even, despite modern medical advances, that's still a tough injury to ever fully recover from. It's only exacerbated by the fact that he added a full season's worth of wear and tear to it.

[wrgptfan]

Originally posted by The Commissioner
He may still not be close to a Hall of Famer in a lot of people's minds, but here are his current career stats:


Hits-1959
Runs-1060
RBI-1124
HR-275
BA-.288
SL%-.489
SB-115

He also just eneterd the career top 100 list for doubles and extra base hits as well as recording his fifth consecutive season with 100+ RBI. I'm not saying any of that makes him a Hall of Famer, but he doesn't seem to be slowing down either. If he can maintain his present level or even a slightly dimished one for tow or three more years, he might have a pretty good case to be made in his favor.

Those stats and $7.60 will get him into the HoF.

[The Commissioner]

Laugh now, but in a couple more seasosn he could rank pretty high on quite a few career leader boards.

[tearforamariner]

Originally posted by wrgptfan
Those stats and $7.60 will get him into the HoF.

Hits-1588
Runs-877
RBI-563
HR-38
BA-.273
SL%-.355
SB-149

Now why on earth was I just thinking of those numbers? :laugh

[Captain Cold Nose]

Originally posted by wrgptfan
Those stats and $7.60 will get him into the HoF.

$7.60? Is that the super-discount rate?

[Brad Harris]

Luis Gonzalez, through 2003 (his "age 35 season"), accumulated a 124 park-adjusted OPS+ (in 7,651 plate appearances).

So...at this point in his career, Gonzo's OPS has been 24% higher than league average, even after adjusting for his home parks. Not too shabby, eh? That's what I thought until I dug up a list of other players who, through the same age, had a similar (or better) park-adjusted production.

Gonzo rates 127th all-time for career Production+ through age 35. Looking at the list of players with similar playing time and production, it's easy to see why Gonzo's case rests primarily on his maintaining or improving his OPS+ between now and his retirement.

And it's a very rare thing, indeed, for a player to do that.

To illustrate how tenuous his chances are, as of right now, here is a list of every non-Hall of Famer with a better OPS+ through the same age. (Non-eligibles like Bonds, McGwire, etc. not listed here.)

Dick Allen leads this group with an amazing 156 OPS+ through age 35! Between him and Gonzo are the following:

Harry Stovey
Frank Howard
Norm Cash
Jack Clark
Reggie Smith
Will Clark
George Gore
Ken Singleton
Boog Powell
Fred Lynn
Tony Oliva
Keith Hernandez
Bobby Veach
Jim Rice
Bob Watson
Bobby Bonds
Joe Torre
Dave Parker
George Foster
Jimmy Wynn
Dwight Evans
Bobby Grich
Jimmy Ryan
Roy Sievers
Cecil Cooper
Bob Elliot
Rick Monday
Bobby Murcer
Rusty Staub
Roy Thomas
Al Oliver
Ron Cey
Andre Dawson
Ted Kluszewski

Now...obviously there are more players who are in Gonzo's situation who went on to be elected than those who did not, but this is merely to point out that election is no certainty for someone in his position. Especially considering he plays a corner outfield position, where OPS+ is traditionally higher than most other positions.

Gonzo has a lot of work ahead of him.

[Eddie Collins]

If Dawson does not get it, Gonzo shouldn't either.

[wrgptfan]

Originally posted by Captain Cold Nose
$7.60? Is that the super-discount rate?
I just checked out what was on the HoF web site:

http://baseballhalloffame.org/visitor_info/hours.htm


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[The Commissioner]

Chancellor, just how heavily do you feel that the OPS+ is going to weigh on the minds of the voters in the years following his retirement?

[Brad Harris]

More than it does today. (Which is to say...still not very much.)

The point being that numbers the voters will look at are going to be those things that comprise a 125-130 career OPS+. The question was what does he have to do?

The answer is to have a few more MVP-caliber seasons: that's the necessary minimum for serious consideration. While voters may look at those results in the hits column, home run column or RBI column, I can see them perfectly well in the OPS+ column as well.

Just because the voters don't know how to quantify the numbers they're considering doesn't mean they won't be considering those numbers (or the sum of their parts).

Obviously, however, OPS+ as a stat unto itself is hardly going to make enough headway in the next 10 years that the average BBWAA voter will be using it for Hall of Fame consideration. Unfortunately, that is, because they're going to need to be able to look at this homer-happy era's numbers in context and I'm afraid that without some guidance from legitimate statistics, each writer will just sort of add to and subtract from a player's career stats based on his own observations/guesses about the time and place in which that player excelled.

Larry Walker, for example, stands a far greater chance of being short-changed by the writers because they'll take off too much for his playing time in Coors. Gonzo might prosper on the ballot because BOB isn't as well-known as a hitter's park as places like Coors, Wrigley, etc.

[Etheridge2]

If Luis Gonzalez plays another 6 years and averages the following

.330 average 174 hits 30 doubles 74 runs 38 home runs 113 RBI he will have the following career totals
.301 career average
3003 career hits (currently that would rank him 25th)
610 career doubles (10th)
1504 career runs scored (58th)
503 career home runs (20th)
1802 career RBI (16th)

Say he doesn't have such lofty numbers for his final 6 years and instead averages the following

.291 average 150 hits 25 doubles 70 runs 33 home runs 100 RBI he will have the following career totals
.289 career average
2859 career hits (38th)
580 career doubles (15th)
1480 career runs scored (62nd)
473 career home runs (25th)
1724 career RBI (18th)

Of course there are players that by that time could be farther ahead of Gonzo and so where he would rank today with those current numbers may be a few spots less in 6 years...BUT it's not like he would need to go on any sort of tear to get to the 2nd set of numbers. The first set would require good health and a solid batting average but it would be possible.


Over the last 5 years Gonzo has averaged .312 with 185 hits 106 runs 33 HR 115 RBI and 39 doubles
A couple of more AS games and I would say 3 more top 5 MVP finishes could help too.

So it is really a question of how long can he keep it up and how much of a decline he will see?? 1 or 2 more big years would make a lot of impressive career numbers VERY attainable.

The door isn't closed on Gonzo in the hall but it's a heavy door and will take some force to keep it open and push him through. I would LOVE to see him do though such a GOOD guy. The numbers I gave have him playing until he is 41 so he needs some good health.

[BigRedMachine]

Luis needs 1041 more career hits to make the Hall of Fame. This will give him a total of 3000 hits. This is a long shot of course. He could squeak in if he ever reaches 1500 RBIs also.

[The Commissioner]

Originally posted by BigRedMachine
Luis needs 1041 more career hits to make the Hall of Fame. This will give him a total of 3000 hits. This is a long shot of course. He could squeak in if he ever reaches 1500 RBIs also.

What if he winds up with 2800 hits, while continuing to put up power numbers and hit for a decent average? How important is 3000 for his chances?

[BigRedMachine]

I think Andre Dawson has a better shot at getting in the Hall of Fame now than Luis Gonzalez ever will. Jim Rice hasn't made it yet. There is serious question Harold Baines will make it. There is even some doubt ( though not by me) that Fred McGriff will make it.

Harold Baines
384 HRs
1628 RBIs
.289 Average
2866 hits

Andre Dawson
438 HRs
1591 RBIs
.279 Average
2774 Hits
314 Stolen Bases

Jim Rice
382 HRs
1451 RBIs
.298 BA
2452 Hits

Very few players with at least 1500 RBIs are not in the HOF. Every player with at least 500 HR and 3000 hits makes it.

Of course, we know this isn't by design. It has just worked out this way so far.

Luis Gonzalez is going to be another borderline case for the Hall of Fame unless he can crack 3000 hits or 1500 RBIs.

The same goes for Dale Murphy, Dave Parker, Joe Carter, and Jose Canseco. These guys came close but just didn't have enough to lock them in the Hall of Fame. I don't think they are going to make it, and even if Luis Gonzalez finishes his career with a .290 to .300 career Batting average, without 3000 hits he isn't going to be a lock to make it in the Hall of Fame.

I wish him all the best. He seems like a great guy, a hard working player, and a good role model. I hope he proves me wrong and makes it someday.

[tearforamariner]

Originally posted by BigRedMachine
I think Andre Dawson has a better shot at getting in the Hall of Fame now than Luis Gonzalez ever will. Jim Rice hasn't made it yet. There is serious question Harold Baines will make it. There is even some doubt ( though not by me) that Fred McGriff will make it.

Harold Baines
384 HRs
1628 RBIs
.289 Average
2866 hits

Andre Dawson
438 HRs
1591 RBIs
.279 Average
2774 Hits
314 Stolen Bases

Jim Rice
382 HRs
1451 RBIs
.298 BA
2452 Hits

Very few players with at least 1500 RBIs are not in the HOF. Every player with at least 500 HR and 3000 hits makes it.

Of course, we know this isn't by design. It has just worked out this way so far.

Luis Gonzalez is going to be another borderline case for the Hall of Fame unless he can crack 3000 hits or 1500 RBIs.

The same goes for Dale Murphy, Dave Parker, Joe Carter, and Jose Canseco. These guys came close but just didn't have enough to lock them in the Hall of Fame. I don't think they are going to make it, and even if Luis Gonzalez finishes his career with a .290 to .300 career Batting average, without 3000 hits he isn't going to be a lock to make it in the Hall of Fame.

I wish him all the best. He seems like a great guy, a hard working player, and a good role model. I hope he proves me wrong and makes it someday.

While the 3,000 hits mark is a great accomplishment and a guarantee for HoF status (except in the case of Mr. Rose), I believe that, as Commish was saying, a player who reaches 2,800 hits has almost as much of a guarantee. The eligible leader for hits that is not in the HoF is Dawson, with his 2,774. Right now, I think 2,800 and not 3,000 hits, is the benchmark to guarantee HoF status. Ask me again when Baines is actually eligible, my story might change.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Gonzo's triple crown stats for his career are .285-331-1,320 at this writing. He has an OBP of .369 with 2,356 career hits at this writing.

I didn't think he had a chance at all. I still don't, but his case is a bit better than I thought it would be.

Gonzo will be 39 next season; he just turned 39 on the 3rd of this month. Whether or not he'll be back next year, and who he'll be with, are real questions. Gonzo's hitting .280 this year with a good OBP, but he has only 15 HRs this year. He may be trying to hit for average to compensate for a loss of the ability to turn on the fastball, and older players can get by with that for a while. If he hits .300 this year, it will look nice on his stats, but the loss of power is for real. He's not likely to get to 400 HRs, which is what I thought he needed to have a serious candidacy.

Let's say Gonzo comes back next year. How long can he stay in the game? My hunch is that Gonzo is no longer a regular. He's a useful platoon player, and he'll get a good number of ABs in that role. Would he accept that role, though, and the pay cut that would come with it? Tony Perez did, and it pushed him over the top, and into the HOF. Not everybody is Tony Perez.

Gonzo has a chance for 3,000 hits, but it's so small it isn't really worth discussing. He has a real chance to get 1,500 RBIs, but I don't think that would do it for him.

If Gonzo is the best he can be, I think he'll have 2 more seasons to where he'll get to about 375 HRs or so, and push himself over the 1,500 RBI mark. He'll get to somewhere between 2.500-2,600 hits. Most guys who do that in their careers don't make the HOF, but a few do.

What would work in Gonzo's favor would be sabermetric adjustments for his career. He had a great year in Comerica Park and a great year in the Astrodome; terrible places to hit. He's always had a high secondary average. Even before his power surge, he had doubles and triples power and a patient batting eye. His OBP is excellent. A sabermetric analysis of Gonzo's career, I suspect, would push him closer to the HOF borderline.

That, of course, has to be balanced against the era Gonzo played in, and the fact that his best season (A) was clearly a fluke in the context of his career, and (B) happened in a year when another player set the home run record, suggesting that conditions in baseball were unusually ripe for a home run explosion that year. Gonzo was never a 50 jack guy; he's a 25-30 HR guy in his best years with good OBP. A Dewey Evans. Gonzo may be more similar to Dewey when it's all said and done. Still, Dewey ain't in no HOF, and he was, IMO, better than Gonzo.

I don't see Gonzo making the kind of run for the HOF at this stage of his career that would put him over the top. He's running out of gas, and he's not yet done anything that would qualify him as having reached an "automatic milestone". There are a lot of couldas and shouldas for Gonzo, but people go into Cooperstown on the career they had.

[soberdennis]

A few years ago, I would have laughed at this even being pondered. I mean after all, he may suddenly be having a few excellent seasons, but surely he is too old to start racking up the numbers which could make him a serious contender for Cooperstown. However, half way into this season I am starting to take another look at his career stats and depending on how long he plays this may not be such a far-fetched theory after all. As I write this Gonzalez's current ML totals are 264 HR, 1013 runs scored, 1069 RBI, and a career .287 BA. The thing going against him is mainly time. He will turn 36 in September. He doesn't appear to be showing any signs of slowing down yet, though. How much longer will he have to play and what kind of totals will he have to put up before he can be considered as a serious candidate? Would 350 HR, 1300 RBI and a .290 average be enough to make him a viable candidate? He may have his fifth straight 100 RBI season this year. Would perhaps 7 in a row have him in consideration? Would he require another monster season like he had in 2001 or just a few more really really good years? Or perhaps is there just no way he will ever make it?
Phoenix is about 3000 miles from Cooperstown.

[leecemark]

--This thread had been dormant for the past 3 seasons - much like Gonzalez career:laugh . His chance was slim when he was peaking and none now.

[JimAbbott]

The guy has already matched Greenberg's 331 career HRs so he should then be a shoe-in based on Greenberg HOF logic

[Fuzzy Bear]

What if he winds up with 2800 hits, while continuing to put up power numbers and hit for a decent average? How important is 3000 for his chances?

If he gets to 400 HRs, that MIGHT, along with 2,800 hits, do it. MIGHT, not WILL.

Gonzo isn't well known for his defense, or any outside-the-stats qualities. His case is going to rest on his batting stats alone. At this juncture, he's not likely to get to 2,800 hits, but we'll see. He could surprise me, but the trends in his case are all downward.

[soberdennis]

--This thread had been dormant for the past 3 seasons - much like Gonzalez career:laugh . His chance was slim when he was peaking and none now.
I noticed it by looking at new posts. I did not wake it up,.

[Fuzzy Bear]

--This thread had been dormant for the past 3 seasons - much like Gonzalez career:laugh . His chance was slim when he was peaking and none now.

I wanted to start a new thread on Gonzo, but I think it's better to see if there's an old one, with a discussion already started. Sometimes it's interesting to see how a guy's chances were back then, as opposed to now. Plus, if everybody did that, there would only be one Pete Rose thread . . . oh, never mind! :p :waving

[JimAbbott]

No way Luis gets 3000 hits or even 2800

[soberdennis]

I wanted to start a new thread on Gonzo, but I think it's better to see if there's an old one, with a discussion already started. Sometimes it's interesting to see how a guy's chances were back then, as opposed to now. Plus, if everybody did that, there would only be one Pete Rose thread . . . oh, never mind! :p :waving
and one Joe Jackson.
and one Babe Ruth.
In the words of the King of Siam-Et Cetera, Et Cetera, Et Cetera

[Fuzzy Bear]

No way Luis gets 3000 hits or even 2800

You never know. If he went to the AL, became a platoon DH, and continued to get on base and jack the ball every so often, he just might. Of course, his DH time would then be held against him. I don't think Gonzo, barring a renaissance, retains enough ability to play as long as it would take him to hold a regular job and get to 2,800 hits.

[jalbright]

I wanted to start a new thread on Gonzo, but I think it's better to see if there's an old one, with a discussion already started. Sometimes it's interesting to see how a guy's chances were back then, as opposed to now. Plus, if everybody did that, there would only be one Pete Rose thread . . . oh, never mind! :p :waving

Really, fuzzy, I've got to second your approach. It might be a little different with active guys, since intervening events can certainly change perspectives. But with a guy like this, he certainly hasn't improved his position notably since this thread was last active.

Jim Albright

[brett]

Luis Gonzalez, through 2003 (his "age 35 season"), accumulated a 124 park-adjusted OPS+ (in 7,651 plate appearances).

So...at this point in his career, Gonzo's OPS has been 24% higher than league average, even after adjusting for his home parks.

An OPS+ of 124 isn't really 24% higher than the league average because OPS+ (contrary to common sense) actually ADDS TOGETHER a players on base percentage margin with his slugging percentage margin. In other words, a player with an on base and slugging percentage both 12% above the league average would have a 124 OPS+

[leecemark]

--Doesn't 12% better at two different aspects of the game add up to 24%. I'd agree that a 124 for a LFer is well short of 24% above average though. The average LFer is probably more like a 110-115 OPS+.

[Pine Tar]

Really, fuzzy, I've got to second your approach. It might be a little different with active guys, since intervening events can certainly change perspectives. But with a guy like this, he certainly hasn't improved his position notably since this thread was last active.

Jim Albright

Although I still don't think Gonzo has done enough to get to the hall, and I really don't think he will, I DO think he has improved his chances a bit this season. Although he hasn't been hitting a lot of homers this year, he has hit a TON of doubles this year (he will have over 50 this year!). His OPS is 840 this year which certainly is good enough to stick around for another year as a starter. So, it seems likely that he will play at least another year which will put him over 2500 hits, 1400 runs scored, and 1400 RBI. He will also be close to 600 doubles. I still wouldn't vote for him, but with each year he plays as his current level, he will be find more people jumping on his hall bandwagon.

[538280]

An OPS+ of 124 isn't really 24% higher than the league average because OPS+ (contrary to common sense) actually ADDS TOGETHER a players on base percentage margin with his slugging percentage margin. In other words, a player with an on base and slugging percentage both 12% above the league average would have a 124 OPS+

How is their formula contrary to common sense? I actually like it better than it would be by just comparing OPS to the league average OPS. OPS, will, of course, overcompensate for SLG because it is always a much larger number. By doing it the way they do, in minimizes (though doesn't eliminate) this problem. The way they do it for OPS+ correlates better to run scoring than regular OPS.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Really, fuzzy, I've got to second your approach. It might be a little different with active guys, since intervening events can certainly change perspectives. But with a guy like this, he certainly hasn't improved his position notably since this thread was last active.

Jim Albright

He's not only not improved his position, he's isolated his 2001 season to where it stands out as a clear fluke. It's not quite Brady Anderson's 50 HR season, but it's close; it's kind of like Norm Cash's 1961 season, where he hit .361.

Enough time has gone by to where it's clear that Gonzo was not a late-arriving superstar. He was a quality regular who took a step up to be a minor star, but he's never maintained superstar production for a period of years.

It is possible that Gonzo can reverse himself and do the things he would need to do to impress HOF voters, but it's not likely that he will, given that his numbers over the past few seasons show him in CLEAR decline.