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Zagi-CRO
02-19-2009, 05:03 AM
Chicago Cubs
Prediction: 102 - 60 1st place :nod: :clapping

In: OF Milton Bradley, RHP Kevin Gregg, RHP Aaron Heilman, RHP Luiz Vizcaino, INF Aaron Miles, C Paul Bako, OF Joey Gathright.
Out: RHP Kerry Wood, INF Mark DeRosa, RHP Jason Marquis, C Henry Blanco, OF Felix Pie, LHP Rich Hill, INF Ronny Cedeno, RHP Michael Wuertz, RHP Bobby Howry, INF-OF Daryle Ward.

The Cubs were busy again in the offseason, trying to tighten up a team that led the NL in victories last year and then fell flat in their second consecutive first-round playoff sweep. They re-signed 17-game winner Ryan Dempster and added the left-handed bat Bradley. The Cubs have speed off the bench with Gathright and Miles. Chicago must find a fifth starter after the departure of Marquis. Sean Marshall, Chad Gaudin, Jeff Samardzija and Heilman are all in the running. The bullpen should be solid, despite the loss of Wood, with Carlos Marmol moving into the closer's role — although he will have competition in camp from Gregg. What the Cubs really need is for sluggers Alfonso Soriano and Aramis Ramirez to pick up their games in the postseason. Both struggled in the back-to-back playoff sweeps. Keep an eye on J.Vitters, J.Samardzija, J.Jackson. The Cubs should wins the title three times in a row.

St. Louis Cardinals
Prediction: 82 - 80 2nd place :ooo:

In: SS Khalil Greene, LHP Trever Miller, LHP Royce Ring, LHP Charlie Manning.
Out: RHP Braden Looper, LHP Mark Mulder, RHP Jason Isringhausen, LHP Randy Flores, LHP Ron Villone, INF Felipe Lopez, SS Cesar Izturis, INF Aaron Miles.

Their rotation with Lohse as 1st spot is unconceivable. Oft-injured ace Chris Carpenter used to be the top concern, coming off shoulder and elbow injuries. That was before 3B Troy Glaus underwent surprise shoulder surgery in mid-January, a procedure that will probably keep him off the field until May. A healthy Carpenter, the 2005 NL Cy Young Award winner, would head a capable rotation that includes 15-game winner Kyle Lohse and Adam Wainwright. The outfield is crowded with Ryan Ludwick, Rick Ankiel, Skip Schumaker, Chris Duncan and rookie Colby Rasmus vying for time. Who is going to be a closer? Chris Perez or Franklin?
Keep an eye on C.Rasmus, Jai.Garcia, B.Wallace, Br.Anderson.

Houston Astros
Prediction: 82 - 80 3rd place :ooo:

In: LHP Mike Hampton, 3B Aaron Boone, OF Jason Michaels.
Out: 3B Ty Wigginton, LHP Randy Wolf, C Brad Ausmus, INF Mark Loretta.

Houston's biggest move this offseason was bringing back the oft-injured Hampton. The Astros hope to get more out of Kaz Matsui in his second year with the team. The rotation could be a concern behind ace Roy Oswalt after both RHP Brandon Backe and LHP Wandy Rodriguez were inconsistent last season. The bullpen should be a strength with the return of closer Jose Valverde and setup man Doug Brocail or Hawkins. Humberto Quintero and J.R. Towles are top contenders to replace Ausmus, who signed with the Dodgers.


Cincinnati Reds
Prediction: 81 - 81 4th place :debate:

In: C Ramon Hernandez, CF Willy Taveras, OF Jonny Gomes, LHP Arthur Rhodes, SS Alex Gonzalez, OF Jacque Jones, 1B-OF Daryle Ward, C Humberto Cota.
Out: OF Corey Patterson, OF Ryan Freel, LHP Jeremy Affeldt, LHP Kent Mercker, RHP Gary Majewski, RHP Matt Belisle, RHP Josh Fogg, C Paul Bako, C Javier Valentin.

With outfielders Ken Griffey Jr. and Adam Dunn gone — both were traded last season — the Reds begin building around a nucleus of young players including OF Jay Bruce, 1B Joey Votto and 2B Brandon Phillips. The rotation is mostly set with Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo, Edinson Volquez and Johnny Cueto. The Reds need to find a fifth starter during spring training. Hernandez moves behind the plate following a trade with Baltimore. Gonzalez returns after missing last season due to a knee injury. The Reds could be a pleasant surprise.


Milwaukee Brewers
Prediction: 77 - 85 5th place :crazy

In: RHP Trevor Hoffman, RHP Jorge Julio.
Out: LHP CC Sabathia, RHP Ben Sheets, RHP Eric Gagne, RHP Guillermo Mota, LHP Brian Shouse, RHP Salomon Torres, 3B Russell Branyan, 2B Ray Durham, OF Gabe Kapler.

Last year's playoff berth was Milwaukee's first since 1982. But this offseason the team lost basically its entire bullpen to go along with its top two starters — Sabathia and Sheets. Too much!
The replacements? Hoffman and hope. Milwaukee must have a healthy dose of each to compete for the postseason again. The paper-thin starting staff must stay healthy and Yovani Gallardo has to become the team's young ace after missing most of last season because of a knee injury. There are no anticipated changes in the starting lineup, and everyone besides C Jason Kendall and CF Mike Cameron are years away from free agency or has signed long-term deals with the club.
Keep an eye on M.Gamel, Alc.Escobar, A.Salome.


Pittsburgh Pirates
Prediction: 59 - 103 6th place :rainy:

In: INF Ramon Vazquez, INF-OF Eric Hinske, RHP Virgil Vasquez, INF Andy Phillips, OF Craig Monroe.
Out: INF Doug Mientkiewicz, OF Jason Michaels, INF Chris Gomez, C Ronny Paulino, RHP John Van Benschoten.

The Pirates have nowhere to go but up after a record-tying 16th consecutive losing season! They went 19-40 following the trades of OF Jason Bay and OF Xavier Nady late last season, and their only offseason additions were two utility players (Vazquez and Hinske).
So much to improve, so little time to do so. Their pitching was atrocious, and Russell believes that can be improved significantly if only LHP Tom Gorzelanny, RHP Ian Sell and LHP Zach Duke pitch as they have before. None of the players added in the Bay and Nady deals did much after arriving in Pittsburgh, and OF Brandon Moss is recovering from left knee surgery.
It could be a very long season for the Pirates.
Keep an eye on A.McCutchen, P.Alvarez, J.Tabata, N.Walker.

gman5431
02-19-2009, 06:25 AM
"With outfielders Ken Griffey Jr. and Adam Dunn gone — both were traded last season — the Reds begin building around a nucleus of young players including OF Jay Bruce, 1B Joey Votto and 2B Brandon Phillips. The rotation is mostly set with Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo, Edinson Volquez and Johnny Cueto. The Reds need to find a fifth starter during spring training. Hernandez moves behind the plate following a trade with Baltimore. Gonzalez returns after missing last season due to a knee injury. The Reds could be a pleasant surprise."

Nice work on this summary of the Reds. Harangatang is the big piece to me. If he gets back to form then the Reds will be in the thick of it. I will go as high as 90 wins. I heard he lost 25 pounds so i'm getting excited. Cant wait to see him next week!

G Man

Brad Harris
02-19-2009, 06:36 AM
Reds lost too much offense that wasn't replaced; no way they finish much higher than .500 and they'll be lucky to do that. They have good young talent, but it is young and it's not supported by all that much else. 90 wins in this division is out of the question.

As for the Cubs, they're the best team in the division, but they're not a 100-win team.

I'd switch the Brewers and Astros on your list, Zagi, but otherwise I agree with the rankings. Nice post.

STLCards2
02-19-2009, 11:34 AM
Zag - how is Loshe the # 1 pitcher. Wainright is way better and will be a stud this year. IF (big if) Carp is healthy, he will be a #1 or #2 guy too. Loshe will be battling Wellemeyer for the #3 spot.

I agree with you prediction, howevr - a tad over .500.

Zagi-CRO
02-20-2009, 02:45 AM
Zag - how is Loshe the # 1 pitcher. Wainright is way better and will be a stud this year. IF (big if) Carp is healthy, he will be a #1 or #2 guy too. Loshe will be battling Wellemeyer for the #3 spot.

I agree with you prediction, howevr - a tad over .500.

ok, their depth chart says this:

C. Carpenter
A. Wainwright
K. Lohse
T. Wellemeyer
J. Piñeiro
B. Thompson

But as you said /big IF/ ... Carpenter can be #1.

gman5431
02-20-2009, 05:45 AM
I bet Lohse will have a drop off this year now that he got paid. He just isnt as good as his season last year indicates. Also, the Reds lost offense? Who? JR? He didnt provider much of anything, i would definately take a full season of Bruce over him. Dunn? That style of play got us no where. We definately upgrade defensively and probably in every other category except HRs. I would much rather see Dickerson or Hopper out there then Dunn oaf.

G Man

redlegsfan21
02-20-2009, 08:36 AM
The Reds may have lost a lot of offense but the entire NL Central has weakened over the offseason. What seperates the Reds is they have a strong rotation. I do wish the Reds did something about LF instead of sitting on their hands. I believe the Reds' pitching will support them throughout the season and if the Reds are in contention and need a LF, they have plenty of pitching talent that could be traded. I see an end to the losing seasons but then again they play in Cincinnati, where good teams go to die.

Imgran
02-20-2009, 09:41 AM
The Reds rotation is going to be undercut by a bullpen that doesn't inspire anyone. Just stating the facts there.

gman5431
02-20-2009, 11:04 AM
The Reds rotation is going to be undercut by a bullpen that doesn't inspire anyone. Just stating the facts there.

Huh? I dont rememeber the exact numbers but i know Cincy had like the 3rd best bullpen in the NL at one point last year. It was definately their best pen in almost a decade. All they did was lose Affeldt and replace with Rhodes, who i have always liked. I think the pen will be fine.

G Man

keystone
02-21-2009, 03:53 PM
Loshe had a career year last year. I don't see him repeating it. Wellemeyer might actually be better.

Cincy could be surprising. They are a major "if," meaning lots of things have to happen just the right way, but I'm just sayin'....

I don't know about that Astros pitching staff. It could be a nightmare. They might not finish above .500, even with Berkman and Lee swinging for the fences. Pence might have a good year, but that pitching... Maybe Wandy will be this year's Loshe?

The Cubs will be hard to beat, barring injury...

Solair Wright
02-24-2009, 01:27 PM
You see, the Cubs are again going to be a really tough team to beat, and they could capitalise on this opportunity by sealing the NL Central crown again. The Cardinals should give them a good run for their money, and I'm not sure what to say about the other four teams. Sorry Reds fans, but I think this may be a long year. Harang is having problems throwing faster than 87mph, Baker's magic is pretty much a one-shot deal and injuries may be an issue to the team.

Here's my projected NL Central standings:

1. Chicago
2. St. Louis
3. Houston
4. Milwaukee
5. Cincinnati
6. Pittsburgh

NickU
02-24-2009, 09:36 PM
Zag - how is Loshe the # 1 pitcher. Wainright is way better and will be a stud this year. IF (big if) Carp is healthy, he will be a #1 or #2 guy too. Loshe will be battling Wellemeyer for the #3 spot.

I agree with you prediction, howevr - a tad over .500.

Also, keep an eye on Jaime Garcia... He'll be out all season as he recovers from TJ surgery

STLCards2
02-25-2009, 04:32 AM
Also, keep an eye on Jaime Garcia... He'll be out all season as he recovers from TJ surgery

Unless a couple major injuries happened, I don't think Garcia was really in the equation anyway.

Ace Venom
02-25-2009, 07:10 AM
I'd have to agree with ranking the Cubs first in preseason predictions, so here's the rest.

1. Cubs
2. Cardinals
3. Astros
4. Brewers
5. Reds
6. Pirates

NickU
02-25-2009, 10:54 AM
Unless a couple major injuries happened, I don't think Garcia was really in the equation anyway.

yea, he's still a far way from being a regular. I'm afraid that the amount of injuries he has suffered is going to prevent him from having the impact that was once hoped. Although, it seems that all of his problems have been related to that elbow, so hopefully this will circumvent any further setbacks.

nyyfan
02-25-2009, 04:49 PM
Reds will really turns some heads this year and suprise a lot of people. I think if everything goes right (HARANG) then they may make the playoffs but Busty will be an obsticle alone. Thompson/Bailey will likely fill the 5th spot.

STLCards2
02-25-2009, 05:46 PM
yea, he's still a far way from being a regular. I'm afraid that the amount of injuries he has suffered is going to prevent him from having the impact that was once hoped. Although, it seems that all of his problems have been related to that elbow, so hopefully this will circumvent any further setbacks.

Garcia is your typical soft-tossing lefty who is largely dependent on a strong middle-infield defense to be successful. With Green and Skip/whoever it may be, he would have awful numbers this year anyway.

redlegsfan21
02-25-2009, 08:15 PM
I'm thinking the Reds will have a season similar to the 2006 season when the Reds were on the verge of postseason play and in contention until the final week. Also similar to 2006, the bullpen will hold the Reds down.

keystone
02-25-2009, 10:04 PM
It's the starting pitching for the Reds that is a little iffy to me. IF Harang has a good year and Volquez doesn't wear out, they could make things interesting.

So, StLCards2 -- Does Garcia have the potential to become a Moyer-like pitcher?

gman5431
02-26-2009, 07:46 AM
It's the starting pitching for the Reds that is a little iffy to me. IF Harang has a good year and Volquez doesn't wear out, they could make things interesting.

So, StLCards2 -- Does Garcia have the potential to become a Moyer-like pitcher?

I agree with you, i need to see Harangatang bounce back and Edinson and Johnny keeping moving forward. I think the pen and lineup will be fine. I definately see them in contention.

G Man

STLCards2
02-26-2009, 03:14 PM
It's the starting pitching for the Reds that is a little iffy to me. IF Harang has a good year and Volquez doesn't wear out, they could make things interesting.

So, StLCards2 -- Does Garcia have the potential to become a Moyer-like pitcher?

It is always hard to say with soft-tossing lefties. Guys like Glavine, Moyer and Rogers were not (at least to my knowlege) considered great prospects. Without great stuff, a Moyer-type has to have at least a decent defense. Even with solid defenses, most have to have great control, produce lots of groundballs and/or limit homeruns, and control the running game to be successful. It may not be a coincidence that all three of these guys took several years before they were good-great. There are some tricks of the trade that have to be discovered to be a very successful pitcher without lots of strikeouts - who knows if Garcia can seperate himself from the plethera of soft-tossing lefties who flame out quickly, never materialize, or worse. Unless the Cardinals have beter middle-infileders, I don't think Garcia will ever be much.

I think there is a reason that very good soft-tossing lefties are few and far between, and great ones like Glavine are almost non-existant. Without the ability to throw K's - eveything else has to go be good to great.

keystone
02-26-2009, 05:42 PM
Good analysis, StlCards2. And what is it about that middle infield? It hasn't been decent since Ozzie and Tommy. The brass just seems to keep trading away SS and 2B positions. I always wondered why the Cards let Kennedy go...

Anyway, does sound like Garcia's worth keeping an eye on -- if nothing else as a trade for a middle infielder! Since he's still a youngster, though, we might not see him for a while since TLR does like those veterans.

STLCards2
02-26-2009, 07:19 PM
Good analysis, StlCards2. And what is it about that middle infield? It hasn't been decent since Ozzie and Tommy. The brass just seems to keep trading away SS and 2B positions. I always wondered why the Cards let Kennedy go...

Anyway, does sound like Garcia's worth keeping an eye on -- if nothing else as a trade for a middle infielder! Since he's still a youngster, though, we might not see him for a while since TLR does like those veterans.

The biggest issue was getting rid of Izturis. They traded in a very good defensive player with a bad OB% for a mediocre defensive player with a worse OB%, just becasue he hits an occasional homerun. If Uncle Skippy can't cut it at second and if Glaus misses a lot of time - this infield defense may be atrocious this season, even with Pujols.

Letting Kenennedy go was a poor move, one motivated by personality conflict only. Not that he is very good, but if you are going to eat the salary, at least have a guy who can start if a bunch of injuries happen.

OleMissCub
02-26-2009, 08:38 PM
I can't see the Cubs winning 100+ games.

keystone
02-26-2009, 10:59 PM
OleMiss -- why not? Good pitching, decent bullpen, a good line-up, and Lou...

StLCards2 -- I sort of figured there was something fishy about Kennedy's departure. Do you know the dirt?

I agree, Kennedy's not that great, but Schumaker?? :crazy

flota89
03-02-2009, 06:47 PM
Who is to say the Cubs will win the Central this year. The Cardinals could surprise some people if a few things go right. If Perez or someone steps up to close games, Schumaker is successfully moved to 2nd, Carp or Wainwright doesnt get hurt, and Pujols plays like Pujols, they could win.

Look at their possible rotation.
1. Carpenter (if healthy can win 15+ games)
2. Wainwright (if healthy can win 10-15 games most likely)
3. Lohse (could win 10 or more)
4. Wellemeyer (won 13 games in 2008, could win more)
5. Pinero (could win up to 10 if he does good)

Possible Lineup.
1. Schumaker
2. Rasmus
3. Pujols
4. Ankiel or Ludwick
5. Ankiel or Ludwick
6. Molina
7. 3rd Base
8. Pitcher
9. Greene

Maybe it's just me, but that team could win more than 82 games. I predict them to win 91. That is if they don't have any major injuries. I predict the Cubs to win somewhere from 90 to 100 so we could have a good Central this year.:clapping

STLCards2
03-02-2009, 07:11 PM
Who is to say the Cubs will win the Central this year. The Cardinals could surprise some people if a few things go right. If Perez or someone steps up to close games, Schumaker is successfully moved to 2nd, Carp or Wainwright doesnt get hurt, and Pujols plays like Pujols, they could win.



If all of those things happen - they could definitely compete with the Cubs for the division - but that is a lot of "ifs". The Cubs have fewer "ifs" - which is why they are the favorites. Nobody is saying that the Cubs are a guarantee.

I agree that the Cardinals should finishe above .500 and should finish in 2nd place (don't count out the young Reds), but "if" Carp is typical-of-late Carp and "if" no closer emerges, and "if" Skip can't play 2B, this team could be far worse than we expect.

I predict a similar record to last year - in Wild Card contention throughout most of the year. Hopefully, we finally have a year with relatively few injuries. It has been a while.

flota89
03-02-2009, 08:38 PM
If all of those things happen - they could definitely compete with the Cubs for the division - but that is a lot of "ifs". The Cubs have fewer "ifs" - which is why they are the favorites. Nobody is saying that the Cubs are a guarantee.

I agree that the Cardinals should finishe above .500 and should finish in 2nd place (don't count out the young Reds), but "if" Carp is typical-of-late Carp and "if" no closer emerges, and "if" Skip can't play 2B, this team could be far worse than we expect.

I predict a similar record to last year - in Wild Card contention throughout most of the year. Hopefully, we finally have a year with relatively few injuries. It has been a while.

Yes it is a lot of if's which is scary. I really hope the Cards can make it to the playoffs. I dont care if it is Wild Card or the Central. I just want to be able to really enjoy some playoff baseball this year. :clapping I miss that Pujols MVP Carpenter Cy Young combo.

STLCards2
03-02-2009, 08:45 PM
Yes it is a lot of ifs which is scary. I really hope the Cards can make it to the playoffs. I don't care if it is Wild Card or the Central. I just want to be able to really enjoy some playoff baseball this year. :clapping I miss that Pujols MVP Carpenter Cy Young combo.

The biggest obstacle facing the Cardinal's Wild Card chances might be the depth of the NL East. Whoever does not win between the Phillies and Mets will be very good. The Marlins have a very strong young staff and a dynamite hitting middle infield, and the Braves have a team similar to the Cardinals. They have tons of "ifs" and could have a playoff team, or could be toward the bottom of the league depending on how everything breaks.

keystone
03-02-2009, 11:39 PM
The NL East is a beast, and I don't think the Cards can match them. They had better win this year, because Pujols has already stated that he doesn't want to stay if the team isn't committed to winning.

Plus, TLR may walk after this year, too.

Zagi-CRO
03-03-2009, 03:08 AM
After a month, my prediction was changed little...



Chicago Cubs 103 59
St. Louis Cardinals 83 79
Houston Astros 82 80
Cincinnati Reds 80 82
Milwaukee Brewers 78 84
Pittsburgh Pirates 60 102

keystone
03-03-2009, 11:16 PM
Just curious, Zagi-CRO -- how do you see the Astros coming out ahead of the Brewers? Neither has reliable pitching, although the Astros may be ahead in the closer department. Depends on Trevor's stamina....

Zagi-CRO
03-04-2009, 12:04 AM
Just curious, Zagi-CRO -- how do you see the Astros coming out ahead of the Brewers? Neither has reliable pitching, although the Astros may be ahead in the closer department. Depends on Trevor's stamina....

This is the answer--- first of all, my prediction is computer-generated but based on actual 2009 rosters counting with player's 2008 effort.
So,
the Astros vs the Brewers:
rotation the Astros > the Brewers
lineup the Brewers > the Astros
bullpen the Astros > the Brewers

keystone
03-04-2009, 05:16 PM
Who am I to argue with a computer? :D I like the Astros, so I like your computer. Maybe it thinks Wandy Rodriguez is finally going to pitch well on the road.

STLCards2
03-04-2009, 08:25 PM
Here are my predicted standings:

1. Cubs 95 - 67
2. Cardinals 85 - 77
3. Reds 83 - 79
4. Astros 82- 80
5. Brewers 77 - 85
6. Pirates 64 - 98

Pretty muddled and balanced besides first and last.

keystone
03-04-2009, 11:15 PM
I think it's a lead-pipe cinch that the poor Pirates will come in last. What a shame for such a storied franchise...