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Zagi-CRO
02-19-2009, 05:00 AM
2009 Season Preview NL EAST


Philadelphia Phillies
Prediction: 97 -65 1st place :nod:

In: Raul Ibanez and Ronny Paulino
Out:Pat Burrell

After 25 frustrating years without a major pro sports champion, Philadelphia at last had a victory parade in 2008. The offense is a little heavy on left-handed hitters, but that’s far from a fatal flaw. This club has elite players in the rotation (highlighted by Hamels, an emerging superstar, Moyer, Kendrick), the bullpen (Lidge and Madson) and the lineup (Rollins, Utley, Howard, Ibanez), and after two straight September charges and a World Series title, it knows how to win.
Keep an eye on J.Donald, Carl.Carasco.


New York Mets
Prediction: 95 -67 2nd place :nod:

In: Freddy Garcia, Francisco Rodriguez, J.J. Putz and Jeremy Reed
Out: Aaron Heilman, Endy Chavez and Mike Carp

This time, the Mets has more reasons for optimism. The team played hard and relaxed for new manager Jerry Manuel, and the front office corrected the team’s fatal flaw by acquiring J.J. Putz and Francisco Rodriguez for the bullpen.
The lineup is sturdy, and the Mets once again look strong on paper.
Obviously, they don’t want to waste the prime years of superstars Reyes, Wright, and Beltran, so bolstering the bullpen—in a big way—was the right move. With Johan Santana a top the rotation and K-Rod closing in the ninth, J.J.Putz in the eight - the Mets have no more excuses.
It would be a very tough battle for the title. I gave an advantage to the Phillies bacause of lineup.
Keep an eye on F.Martinez, W.Flores, J.Niese.

Atlanta Braves
Prediction: 90 -72 3rd place :debate:

In: SP Derek Lowe, SP Javier Vasquez, RHP Boone Logan, OF Garret Anderson

Out: Brent Lillibridge


After losing 90 games in 2008 it was beginning to look like the Braves would have a better season.
After the January signings of free agent pitcher's, Derek Lowe and Japanese star Kenshin Kawakami, behind Jurrjens, the Braves and manager Bobby Cox should feel better about their chances of ending a three-year playoff drought in 2009.
The Braves can improve upon last year’s fourth-place finish in the NL East, but they’ll need to avoid pitching injuries and see improved production from a few players who regressed in 2008. They made no significant offensive additions to a team that ranked 14th in the NL in homers in 2008—and that was with Mark Teixeira in the lineup until late July.
Keep an eye on J.Heyward, J.Schafer, T.Hanson, Gor.Hernandez.

Florida Marlins
Prediction: 67 -95 4th place :crazy

In: Leo Nunez, Emilio Bonifacio and Scott Proctor
Out: Mike Jacobs, Matt Treanor, Kevin Gregg and Arthur Rhodes

The Marlins would regress this season, it's one of the toughest division, the Mets and the Nat's bolstered the team while the Marlins had too much departures. A weak rotation with Nolasco and Johnson and bullpen with…who… Lindstrom as a closer?
It could be a very long season for them.
But the Marlins has excellent prospects as C.Maybin, L.Morrison, M.Stanton, M.Dominguez, K.Skipworth. Especially, keep an eye on Cameron Maybin!


Washington Nationals
Prediction: 64 -98 5th place :rainy:

In: Scott Olsen (Florida), Josh Willingham (Florida), Brad Eldred (Chicago White Sox), Daniel Cabrera (Orioles), Corey Patterson (Reds), and Jose Castillo (Giants), OF Dunn
Out: Emilio Bonifacio (traded to Marlins), Tim Redding (signed with Mets), Aaron Boone (signed with Astros), and Brian Sanches (signed with Marlins)

Expect the Washington Nationals to spare their fans the indignity of a second straight 100-loss season. The good news, however, ends there. But good health isn’t enough to overcome their lack of starting pitching depth and a lineup that has not proven it can consistently produce.
The Nationals didn’t acquire much established talent from the outside during the offseason, so their improvement in 2009 will again depend on the progression of youngsters such as position players Zimmerman, Milledge, Dukes, and Flores and pitchers Lannan and Balester.
Their lineup is much better part of the team, especially with Dunn arrival.
Their offense lacks the talent to contend and it’s missing the left-handed power hitter management covets. The starting rotation is inexperienced except Olsen. Hanrahan will be a closer but the others relievers dont' have much experience. It’s a formula for another long summer in the nation’s capital.
But keep an eye on J.Zimmermann, R.Detwiller, M.Burgess, Ch.Marrero.

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Please state your opinion!

metfan13
02-19-2009, 06:58 AM
I don't see how you can label Moyer and Kendrick "elite".

gman5431
02-19-2009, 07:12 AM
I agree. I'm going to root for Moyer, but can he do it for another year, let alone two? Also, you didnt include Dunn in the "in" category for Wash, not that it will matter. Dont think Philly will get to 98 wins but that might be what it takes to win this division. I'm scared the Mets are going to be really tough and finally hold on, with Santana leading the way.

G Man

AutographCollector
02-20-2009, 10:48 AM
I gave an advantage to the Phillies bacause of lineup.


And the Met's lineup is not equally as good if not BETTER than Philly's?
All Philly has is Utley and Howard. NY has Reyes, Wright, Beltran, Delgado, shall I keep going?

Imgran
02-20-2009, 10:58 AM
Yes, let's also keep going with the Phillies, right on through Jimmy Rollins at least.

I could easily say that the Yankees have A-Rod and Jeter and we have Youkilis, Pedroia, Bay, Drew, need I go on? Ooops, looks like I forgot a few Yankees to give a false impresison didn't I?

metfan13
02-20-2009, 02:57 PM
Mets and Phils scored the same number of runs last year, playing in vastly different home parks. I think the Mets made the bullpen moves to cover the difference from last year.

But that's why they play 162. Can't wait until they get going again.

Paulypal
02-20-2009, 03:40 PM
And the Met's lineup is not equally as good if not BETTER than Philly's?
All Philly has is Utley and Howard. NY has Reyes, Wright, Beltran, Delgado, shall I keep going?

Can you keep going? I would like to hear the next name after Delgado. I am a Mets fan and I am not sold on the lineup. Both corner OF spots are huge question marks. The second basmen is another one, and we already know our catcher isnt hitting. So after the 4 hole,,,,cant really count on much.

They still have Jimmy Rollins right? Jason Werth is improving as is Shane Victorino. Raul Ibanez is also a very good hitter.

AutographCollector
02-20-2009, 08:05 PM
Can you keep going? I would like to hear the next name after Delgado. I am a Mets fan and I am not sold on the lineup. Both corner OF spots are huge question marks. The second basmen is another one, and we already know our catcher isnt hitting. So after the 4 hole,,,,cant really count on much.

They still have Jimmy Rollins right? Jason Werth is improving as is Shane Victorino. Raul Ibanez is also a very good hitter.

I can. But do not wish to. :silent:

I listed four to their two. :D

We also revamped our bullpen. How will it fare now that we have Putz and
K-Rod? Only time will tell.

CROM
02-20-2009, 09:19 PM
I really feel that the division will be closer than this. I just dont see the Braves being out of it by 11 games at the end of the season. Although, at this point i have to favor the Mets and the Phils over Atlanta, I think it will be a pretty interesting 3 team race. I dont want to over look the Marlins either. I think that they will be close to a .500 team.

In my opinion the NL east will be a very competitive division this year. Along with the AL east i dont see an overwhelming favorite to win the division.

kiluckzle
02-21-2009, 10:35 AM
And the Met's lineup is not equally as good if not BETTER than Philly's?
All Philly has is Utley and Howard. NY has Reyes, Wright, Beltran, Delgado, shall I keep going?

Shane Victorino had very similar offensive stats compared to Reyes in 08, so I don't see how he can be counted out.
Victorino .293/.352/.447
Reyes .297/.358/.475

Ibanez and Beltran also had pretty similar offensive stats too.
Ibanez .293/.358/.479
Beltran .284/.376/.500
Ibanez had 2 less RBI but also played for a very bad offensive team (26th in runs in MLB) and didn't have much that hit well before him.

So we have 4 very good hitters there (Utley, Howard, Victorino, Ibanez) vs. 4 very good hitters (Reyes, Wright, Delgado, Beltran).

Rollins - Victorino - Ultey - Howard - Werth - Ibanez - Feliz - Ruiz
Reyes - Castillo - Wright - Delgado - Beltran - Church - Murphy - Schneider
Castillo just sucked last year and his career is going downhill and Delgado's getting old too. Both lineups look very good (at least in the first 6 or 7), and I don't think you can deem one better than the other just yet.

Dalkowski110
02-21-2009, 01:08 PM
"Shane Victorino had very similar offensive stats compared to Reyes in 08, so I don't see how he can be counted out.
Victorino .293/.352/.447
Reyes .297/.358/.475"

If you mean similar in BA and OBA, then yes, but Reyes' advantage in slugging percentage (in other words, extra-base hits) is also pretty significant.

"Ibanez and Beltran also had pretty similar offensive stats too.
Ibanez .293/.358/.479
Beltran .284/.376/.500"

Beltran's advantage in OBA is quite evident (also note his higher walk rate), and he also has somewhat of an edge in SLG%.

NYMets523
02-21-2009, 10:45 PM
Beltran's advantage in OBA is quite evident (also note his higher walk rate), and he also has somewhat of an edge in SLG%.

Beltran is also a switch hitter and Ibanez struggles against lefties.



One thing to keep in mind with both teams bullpens is this:
Brad Lidge never blew a save last year. The Mets matched a club record blowing 29 saves last year. The odds of these extremes repeating again were unlikely even before the Mets acquired K-Rod AND Putz. With the addition of those two the chances are infinitesimal.


The lineups, despite what fans like Paulypal who pine for Manny, are about even. The Phillies' lesser players have the luxury of CBP which helps inflates their states.

I probably sound like a homer saying this, but the stats back it up: Ryan Howard has been regressing since 2006.


Year Ag Tm Lg G AB R H 2B 3B HR BB SO BA OBP SLG *OPS+ TB
2006 26 PHI NL 159 581 104 182 25 1 58 108 181 .313 .425 .659 167 383
2007 27 PHI NL 144 529 94 142 26 0 47 107 199 .268 .392 .584 144 309
2008 28 PHI NL 162 610 105 153 26 4 48 81 199 .251 .339 .543 124 331

Zagi-CRO
02-23-2009, 03:11 AM
After Garret Anderson signing records are changing:


NLE Philadelphia Phillies 97 65
NLE New York Mets 95 67
NLE Atlanta Braves 90 72
NLE Florida Marlins 67 95
NLE Washington Natis 64 98