Carlos Beltran (2009 poll version) [Archive]

Sockeye

04-03-2006, 12:13 PM

chrismarullo

04-03-2006, 09:48 PM

He's basically Cesar Cedeno without the rapsheet and on much better teams.

Shea is going to rob a few home runs from him the next 4 or 5 years and who knows what the new Mets's stadium's demensions will be.

But if he plays a big part in any succesful New York team that will raise awareness for him tenfold.

KCGHOST

04-03-2006, 10:00 PM

I think he has a shot at it, but the odds aren't real good. He needs 6-7 seasons like 2003-2004 and a good decline. That's asking a lot.

Sockeye

04-04-2006, 10:17 AM

I think he has a shot at it, but the odds aren't real good. He needs 6-7 seasons like 2003-2004 and a good decline. That's asking a lot.

Carlos Beltran will be in his prime for another 4 years. I anticipate him having seasons similar to that of his 99, 01-03 seasons for at least the next 4 years. Perhaps with slightly lower stolen bases numbers. I see him as stealing 20-25 bases per year instead of 30-40. That may inturn effect his run totals slightly. I think his 04 campaign was a free agent fluke and he's not likely to reach those numbers again at least from the home run aspect although I wouldn't totally discount the possibility of it happening either.

Obviously as with any player a lot depends on the variables. A players health and ability to maintain a reasonably high level of play at an advanced age. That is often times to difference between the players that end up making the HOF and the ones that fall just short. If Beltran is out of baseball by the age of 35-36 then no he won't make the HOF nor should he. However if he for the most part stays healthy and plays another 12 seasons until the age of 40 as is often the case for most star players. Lets say he averages 506 AB's per year. That is the number of AB's per season he has average for his first 8 seasons. That is even taking into consideration his injury in 00 and his 98 cup of coffee. This allows for 550-600 AB's per seasons for the next 4 seasons while in his prime, A decrease to around 500-550 AB's per season from the ages of 33-36, then 350-450 AB's per season as his skills deminish from the ages of 37-40. Factoring in his career production levels to date over another 6000 at-bats then adding in his career totals through 2005 his overall projections come out at 1700+ runs, 2800+ hits, 500+ doubles, 400+ home runs, & 1600+ RBI's. The projections really can't be used to estimate triples or stolen bases since history shows a considerable decrease in those areas with age. That said Carlos Beltran has 54 career triples and 209 stolen bases. It's not an exact science but I'd guestimate he ends up with around 90 triples and 350 stolen bases. So here is my question perhaps someone can answer it for me. How many players have 1700+ runs, 2800+ hits, 500+ doubles, 400+ home runs, 1600+ RBI's, 90+ triples, & 350+ SB's and are not in the HOF???

CoasttoCoast

04-04-2006, 10:45 AM

He may have a chance if he playes at an all-star level for 10-12 more seasons.His numbers came back to earth last year with the New York Mets.

NeverJustAGame

04-04-2006, 10:56 AM

Maybe if he had remained a KC Royal his entire career HOF voters might have gave him a little edge considering he would have spent his career in Sucksville.

wogdoggy

04-04-2006, 10:57 AM

Beltran caught the lime light two years ago with the astros.Yeah he had a big series.BUT thats about it.
HE IS way way overrated.actually 'd bet his BETTER years are behind him.

SELL BELTRAN.

Brad Harris

04-04-2006, 11:33 AM

It seems I'm in the minority on this one. But unless I'm missing something here. Carlos Beltran in 6 full big league seasons has reached 100+ runs/20+ homers/100+ RBI's/25+ SB's 5 times. The only full season where he failed to reach those numbers was last year in his first season with the Mets. And we all know Beltran isn't the first player to struggle in his first season in New York. I think you'll see him bounce back this year with his usual 100+ runs/20+ homers/100+ RBI's/25+ SB's. If so keep in mind he is still just 28 and will have 800+ runs/1300+ hits/240+ doubles/60+ triples/185+ homers/750+ RBI's/240+ steals all at the age of 29. If that's the the start of a HOF career than I don't know what is.

If Beltran's next eight seasons are a duplication of his first eight, then you're looking at a 16-year veteran with 1,398 runs, 2,280 hits, 414 doubles, 108 triples, 324 home runs and 1,294 RBI. Still not a Hall of Fame career.

Beltran has to take it up a notch and keep it there a long time if he's going to be a serious Hall of Fame candidate someday.

Recent center fielders who are going to be good-to-great candidates include Ken Griffey Jr., Jim Edmonds, Bernie Williams and Andruw Jones. Carlos Beltran isn't in that class of player.

Sockeye

04-04-2006, 03:26 PM

If Beltran's next eight seasons are a duplication of his first eight, then you're looking at a 16-year veteran with 1,398 runs, 2,280 hits, 414 doubles, 108 triples, 324 home runs and 1,294 RBI. Still not a Hall of Fame career.

Beltran has to take it up a notch and keep it there a long time if he's going to be a serious Hall of Fame candidate someday.

Recent center fielders who are going to be good-to-great candidates include Ken Griffey Jr., Jim Edmonds, Bernie Williams and Andruw Jones. Carlos Beltran isn't in that class of player.

And if he calls it quits after that he'll be retiring at the age of 36 and as I stated in my previous post will not make the HOF nor should he. BUT take the 1,398 runs, 2,280 hits, 414 doubles, 108 triples, 324 home runs and 1,294 RBI and ADD 4 more seasons onto those totals THEN we have a serious HOF candidate.

I also find it quite interesting that Carlos Beltran wouldn't be a HOF candidate with those numbers through age 36 but yet you consider Bernie Williams to be a good to great candidate with the following stats 1301 runs, 2218 hits, 420 doubles, 55 triples, 275 home runs, 1196 RBI through age 37

Brad Harris

04-04-2006, 03:56 PM

What I consider is that Williams, a perennial all-star, will ultimately be a better candidate than Beltran, the "flavor-of-the-month."

Sockeye

04-04-2006, 05:22 PM

What I consider is that Williams, a perennial all-star, will ultimately be a better candidate than Beltran, the "flavor-of-the-month."

When you say "ultimately" are you saying you think Bernie Williams still has productive years ahead of him in which he'll add enough to his stats to surpass the projected totals of Carlos Beltran? Of are you saying that you think he's a better candidate even though his overall numbers won't be as good? And are you saying that you think Bernie Williams is more "deserving" of HOF induction or that he's more "likely" to be voted in? I may in fact agree with you if it is the later for the fact that the "Yankee" factor will be in play. All things being equal though I don't think there is any question when it's all said and done Carlos Beltran career numbers will be better than Bernie Williams.

Sockeye

06-19-2006, 10:25 AM

The new projections are in

yankillaz

06-19-2006, 10:51 AM

He's not in, at least for now. We'll talk in 6 years.

Now, with no intention to highjack this post, why is there no love for Dawson??? I do like Parker for the HOF as much as i like Dawson. But why no love? No BB's??? I don't think that may be a problem.

jalbright

06-19-2006, 10:59 AM

The new projections are in

Wonderful--leftovers with salt poured on them. Without more explanation of how these projections are arrived at, they are nearly as unexplained and therefore meaningless for any basis of discussion as the previous attempts were. If you want to actually provide more of that information so we could examine these projections to see if they provide any better basis for discussion, I'll be happy to participate in the discussion. If you don't want to do so, that's your privilege, but I hope in that case everyone has the wisdom to leave this and many other sleeping dogs of threads lie undisturbed.

Jim Albright

romanos72

06-19-2006, 03:42 PM

I'd vote "No" again if the system would allow me to...

Fuzzy Bear

06-19-2006, 07:21 PM

I think he has a shot at it, but the odds aren't real good. He needs 6-7 seasons like 2003-2004 and a good decline. That's asking a lot.

Beltran's chances were hurt by his bad year last year. He's rebounded to his career norms this year, so maybe he was hiding an injury.

I don't know what to make of Beltran. He's not going to get in based on any counting stat, other than 3,000 hits, and he's somewhat unlikely to reach that plateau, though he may. He's unlikely to reach 500 HRs, but he may, and I think he has a good shot at 400.

Beltran doesn't have to take it up a notch to make the HOF. What he has to do is three things:

(A) Stay at this level to age 36 or so.
(B) Avoid injuries and hang on until age 40
(C) Stay in CENTER field until the last year or two

As a CENTER fielder, Beltran gets a defensive bonus. What threatens him is the Mets need to make room for Lastings Milledge, so Beltran may go to a corner. That will hurt his chances.

Really, he needs to stay in CF and come as close to 3,000 hits as he can. That's his ticket.

LetsGoMets

06-19-2006, 07:32 PM

Carlos Beltran is awesome, but unless he has a few 40/40 or 50/50 seasons, there is no way he's a HOF player.

flash143817

06-20-2006, 03:32 AM

I'm a huge fan of Beltran. He might be the best 5-tool player currently going. He had a major down year last year but he is off to a monster start this year. He could easily reach 40/40 this year and set career highs across the board.

I think he's got a decent shot, but it's obviously way too early to tell.

Fuzzy Bear

06-20-2006, 06:56 PM

If Beltran's next eight seasons are a duplication of his first eight, then you're looking at a 16-year veteran with 1,398 runs, 2,280 hits, 414 doubles, 108 triples, 324 home runs and 1,294 RBI. Still not a Hall of Fame career.

Beltran has to take it up a notch and keep it there a long time if he's going to be a serious Hall of Fame candidate someday.

Recent center fielders who are going to be good-to-great candidates include Ken Griffey Jr., Jim Edmonds, Bernie Williams and Andruw Jones. Carlos Beltran isn't in that class of player.

I sort of agree with this. I don't think Beltran has been a Griffey or a Jones, but he's similar to Edmonds and Williams, and about the same quality of player.

Beltran is a bit inconsistent from year to year, and that hurts him, but if that's over with, and he stabilizes at the level he's been at 3 of the last 4 years, and keeps it going into his mid thirties, then you have something more than you have now. Beltran doesn't so much have to take it up a notch as maintain consistency at his top notch.

Guys like Beltran, who have a broad skill base, tend to do worse in HOF voting than guys who rack up the numbers in one area or another. Beltran, IMO, will have to have a LONG career to make the HOF.

flash143817

06-21-2006, 09:47 PM

I sort of agree with this. I don't think Beltran has been a Griffey or a Jones, but he's similar to Edmonds and Williams, and about the same quality of player.

Beltran is a bit inconsistent from year to year, and that hurts him, but if that's over with, and he stabilizes at the level he's been at 3 of the last 4 years, and keeps it going into his mid thirties, then you have something more than you have now. Beltran doesn't so much have to take it up a notch as maintain consistency at his top notch.

Guys like Beltran, who have a broad skill base, tend to do worse in HOF voting than guys who rack up the numbers in one area or another. Beltran, IMO, will have to have a LONG career to make the HOF.

I think Beltran is a better player than Edmonds or Bernie. His one weakness is injuries, but that is also a weakness for Edmonds.

Taco De Muerte

06-21-2006, 10:01 PM

On a positive note - Beltran is producing at a MUCH higher level this year compared to last year - According to Winshares, he's baseball's second best player after Pujols.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/graphing-beltran/

Fuzzy Bear

06-21-2006, 11:59 PM

Edmonds has picked up the pace a bit; he's now on pace to hit 20 HRs. This will put him easily withing striking range of 400 HRs. As a career CF, this will be a good total for Edmonds, along with his other stats.

I think Edmonds has been a better player than Beltran has been, but Beltran is still young, still able to add to what he has. Edmonds is kind of his benchmark; if he has Edmonds-like production for 10 more years, Beltran becomes a good candidate.

dl4060

06-22-2006, 04:13 PM

Beltran needs to either have excellent longevity at 03-04 levels, or get better, preferably both. He is a nice all around player, but even at his best I would call his numbers very good to excellent, not great. When I compare him to Edmonds at the same age, I see about the same level of player, with possibly slightly better counting numbers, but sightly weaker rate stats. Edmonds, starting at age 30 had 5 straight great seasons, and a sixth one which was very good. I think he had a good case for MVP in 2004 if Bonds had not been there. Edmonds' career OPS+ is higher than Beltran's career high. I think Beltran will have to kick it up a notch to get to HOF territory. However, if he does remain in center, and does have 03-04 production for 6-7 years he has a shot.

Seattle1

07-09-2006, 09:45 AM

Personally, I doubt it. He's good, but not great.

roachboyevo

07-10-2006, 11:15 AM

Personally, I doubt it. He's good, but not great.

there is only one player with 5 seasons of 20+hr 100+rbi 100+runs 20+sb, his name is carlos beltran. He has the highest stolen base percentage ever and in 04 he had the best postseason of any player EVER. This year he's become a patient power hitter with speed and his offense is extraordinary. Along with his other tools and 3-4 years like the one he's havin and 3-4 year after that with fairly reduced stats there is absolutely no reason for Carlos not to wind up in the hall.

Seattle1

07-10-2006, 01:42 PM

there is only one player with 5 seasons of 20+hr 100+rbi 100+runs 20+sb, his name is carlos beltran. He has the highest stolen base percentage ever and in 04 he had the best postseason of any player EVER. This year he's become a patient power hitter with speed and his offense is extraordinary. Along with his other tools and 3-4 years like the one he's havin and 3-4 year after that with fairly reduced stats there is absolutely no reason for Carlos not to wind up in the hall.

Oh don't get me wrong. He's definitely a solid ballplayer and a guy you would want on your team to help you win some games. But he just doesn't have "Hall of Fame" written all over him to me at this point. That's why I had to vote no.

Fuzzy Bear

07-10-2006, 08:55 PM

Oh don't get me wrong. He's definitely a solid ballplayer and a guy you would want on your team to help you win some games. But he just doesn't have "Hall of Fame" written all over him to me at this point. That's why I had to vote no.

He wouldn't go in if his career ended today, or if he had an injury that caused him to merely play out the string. But if he keeps it at the level he's playing at this year for five more years, he's done a LOT to add to his credentials.

Broad based skills players lack milestones that say HOFer, and do worse than milestone guys in balloting, as a rule, but if Beltran stays where he's at, and stays in CF, he's very much in the running.

roachboyevo

07-10-2006, 09:32 PM

400 hr 400sb Beltran and Bonds. Carlos Beltran will be in the HOF.
Seriously, if you had a vote, you wouldnt put a gut in the hall with those two numbers.

digglahhh

07-10-2006, 10:11 PM

You can take all kinds of arbitrary cut-offs and make "exclusive" groups out of them. You can use selected benchmarks to make put about any solid player du jour in HOF company.

National Pastime 6-4-3

07-11-2006, 02:01 AM

WAY too early for Beltran, have to vote no for that reason. Revisit this several years from now.

Imapotato

07-11-2006, 04:13 AM

GiambiJuice

07-11-2006, 10:05 AM

Doesn't defense count for anything???

Beltran is a great outfielder too. If Bill Mazeroski and Ozzie smith get in, why not Beltran?

Assuming he reaches 400/400 and wins a few gold gloves, he should make it.

...not to mention he is the most efficient basestealer in Major League history.

roachboyevo

07-11-2006, 12:15 PM

You can take all kinds of arbitrary cut-offs and make "exclusive" groups out of them. You can use selected benchmarks to make put about any solid player du jour in HOF company.

dude, baseball is based on arbitrary cut offs. we honor mediocre players like lou brock and paul molitor because they stuck around long enough to reach an arbitrary cut off. 400 hrs is alot. everday bozos dont dont do that. 400sbs is alot(sometimes everyday bozos do reach that, but anyway) to reach both of these numbers is amazing and deserves recognition in the hall.

I believe beltran will reach those numbers and be inducted into the hall. 4real.

roachboyevo

07-11-2006, 12:26 PM

In this Era, those numbers are meaningless

So you're sayin that Beltrans statistical achievements were products of his generation. thats crazy.

so everybody's numbers in the steroid era are meaningless, thats just foolish.
guys like Beltran, rolen, edmonds, c. jones, a. jones should be praised because they weren't tainted by the generation in which they played. Their numbers are anything but meaningless.

jalbright

07-11-2006, 12:29 PM

dude, baseball is based on arbitrary cut offs. we honor mediocre players like lou brock and paul molitor because they stuck around long enough to reach an arbitrary cut off. 400 hrs is alot. everday bozos dont dont do that. 400sbs is alot(sometimes everyday bozos do reach that, but anyway) to reach both of these numbers is amazing and deserves recognition in the hall.

I believe beltran will reach those numbers and be inducted into the hall. 4real.
Oh goody, more projections with little more support cited than a "gut feeling' or "trust me". Once Beltran has actually done those things, I'll worry about it. Right now, he's 29 and near the prime of his career. He's not yet on a pace to make it by anything more than the skin of his teeth if that (look at his ten most similar, all-star appearances, MVP award shares, black ink, gray ink and lack of Gold Gloves and his career win shares, best three years in win shares and best five consecutive in win shares) but two or three good years right now (and he's got a good start with 2006 so far), and he could easily change that thinking.

Jim Albright

roachboyevo

07-11-2006, 12:49 PM

Oh goody, more projections with little more support cited than a "gut feeling' or "trust me". Once Beltran has actually done those things, I'll worry about it. Right now, he's 29 and near the prime of his career. He's not yet on a pace to make it by anything more than the skin of his teeth if that (look at his ten most similar, all-star appearances, MVP award shares, black ink, gray ink and lack of Gold Gloves and his career win shares, best three years in win shares and best five consecutive in win shares) but two or three good years right now (and he's got a good start with 2006 so far), and he could easily change that thinking.

Jim Albright

keep your mind in Japan Albright

jalbright

07-11-2006, 02:48 PM

keep your mind in Japan Albright

That's a most considerate and enlightening response, sir. Why should I restrict my commentary to that topic? Or is it that in this instance, I've happened to gore your ox that brings out the venom? I have every right to express my opinions, as do you, so long as they are done in an appropriate manner. Perhaps my sarcasm about your unsupported projection was harsh, but we've had plenty of such unsupported projections in this forum (there's several complaints about same in this very thread) lately. I do not think I crossed the line, but if others think I have, I apologize. However, IMO the response quoted above is even less temperate than my post and therefore less called for.

Jim Albright

roachboyevo

07-11-2006, 05:46 PM

well albright, i believe that are sometimes more crucial things than statistics in forecating. Dont get me wrong i love my stats, but stats dont make the player, the player makes the stats. please sir, try to keep that in mind.

Fuzzy Bear

07-11-2006, 08:48 PM

If Beltran makes 400/400, he is a presumptive HOFer. He would be at the point where people would have to state why he SHOULDN'T be, rather than why he should.

A lot can happen between there and here. Like a leg injury that could rob Beltran of his speed. But if he stays healthy and consistent from year to year he's a good bet for the HOF.

jalbright

07-11-2006, 08:51 PM

Fine, roachboyevo, but your whole argument on Beltran seems to be premised on the idea he will reach both 400 HR and 400 SB. Entering this season, he had been a regular the past 6 1/2 seasons, and he's only had two seasons over 26 HR. He's at 162 now, so he needs over 9 seasons of his 3rd best mark to make 400. He'd be 38 then, so while he might make that number, it's hardly certain. If he can keep his steal rate in the 30's per season in his 30's, is attainable within seven seasons--but steals usually are one of the earlier skills to decay. So the fact he entered this season 191 SB from 400 makes that mark one that it is by no means certain Beltran will reach. Beltran may pick up his production, as I said initially, and he is close enough that if he does so, he could well earn a spot in the HOF. If he doesn't pick it up and lasts a long time, he still could earn that spot. However, if he does neither, he's not getting there.

Jim Albright

roachboyevo

07-11-2006, 09:38 PM

albright, you're right.

roachboyevo

08-22-2006, 10:15 PM

Time to revisit this thread gentlemen.

Fuzzy Bear

08-23-2006, 11:37 AM

Time to revisit this thread gentlemen.

Beltran has helped himself toward the HOF this year. He'll help himself more if the Mets go to the WS and he wins an MVP. The first is likely, the second is unlikely.

Beltran has boosted his HR pace, but he doesn't steal bases like he did. That may be a more intelligent use of his current talents, but he isn't going to get to 400 SBs lifetime. He's not likely to get to 3,000 hits, either.

Beltran's chances for the HOF depend on him (A) staying in CENTER field, (B) getting to 400 HRs, and (C) keeping his BA/OBP about where it is now for his career. He needs to be more consistent from year to year, and he needs to keep up what he's doing well into his 30s to get into the HOF.

Can he do it? It will be tough. Beltran's one knee/leg injury away from being one-and-done in the HOF balloting. If Beltran has a knee or leg injury that robs him of his speed and forces a shift to a corner OF spot he won't go. He's a broad based skills guy whose performance value depends in large part on his defense in center. If his leg(s) ever go, he won't take the Chili Davis route to the HOF.

roachboyevo

08-24-2006, 03:52 PM

why is Beltran winning the MVP unlikely?

Cougar

08-24-2006, 07:04 PM

why is Beltran winning the MVP unlikely?

One word: Pujols.

It's not that unlikely, but one must consider Prince Albert the frontrunner as long as his numbers don't fall off and the Cards maintain their division lead.

As of now, Beltran's probably the runner-up.

Fuzzy Bear

08-24-2006, 07:17 PM

why is Beltran winning the MVP unlikely?

I agree with Cougar; Pujols is a presumptive favorite.

Beltran is a candidate, but so is Soriano and Ryan Howard.

roachboyevo

08-25-2006, 08:39 PM

I agree with Cougar; Pujols is a presumptive favorite.

Beltran is a candidate, but so is Soriano and Ryan Howard.

Does Beltran stellar defensive play and baserunning ability count for anything? If those are taken into account, Beltran is baseball's best player and he's on the leagues best team. I completely respect Ryan Howard and Pujols but Beltran has been the MVP.

Edgartohof

08-25-2006, 09:16 PM

Stat.....Beltran.......Pujols.........edge
Runs.....100...........93..............Beltran
Hits......122...........132.............Pujols
2B.........33............26..............Beltran
HR.........37............38..............Pujols
RBI........106...........107............Pujols
TB.........268...........274............Pujols
SO.........80............38..............Beltran (but that's not a good thing)
BA.........<.286>......<.328>........Pujols (42 points higher)
OBP.......<.388>......<.428>........Pujols (40 points igher)
SLG.......<.628>......<.680>........Pujols (52 points higher)
OPS.......<1.016>....<1.108>.......Pujols (92 points higher)

So Beltran leads in runs and doubles (only because Pujols missed a few games due to injury) and strikeouts (more than twice as many). Pujols leads in almost everything else.

Hmmm.....so tell me again who is your choice for MVP?

leecemark

08-25-2006, 09:22 PM

--Beltran does have a big edge in defense and baserunning. I think I'd probably vote for a fine defensive CFer and baserunner with Beltran's numbers over a 1B with Pujols'. The writers probably wouldn't though. There is alot of baseball left to play, so we'll see how those numbers end up. It would help Beltran alot if he could get that BA over .300.
--Oddly the Mets big lead probably hurts him. If the race was close and Beltran finished strong to put the Mets over the top that would be a big boost. With them coasting to the finish they won't be any heroics needed.

Cougar

08-25-2006, 10:22 PM

For what it's worth, Pujols is a Gold Glove caliber first baseman, and a very canny and opportunistic (if not especially speedy) baserunner.

I'm not suggesting he's more valuable than Beltran defensively (great CF > great 1b) or on the bases (Carlos can fly).

I just thought I should point out that Pujols is far from a zero outside of the batter's box, and in fact has a superb overall game.

leecemark

08-25-2006, 11:01 PM

--Agreed. Pujols is a good defender and runs well for a big man. Still Beltran is going to make up some of the difference in their batting in those areas. Enough to be the better player this year? Most will probably say no, but if I had a vote - and the vote was held today - then Carlos would get mine. How they look at season's end remains to be determined.

roachboyevo

08-26-2006, 08:34 AM

OK. I'm sick and tired of people sayin pujols missed X-amount of games or whatever. Beltran has missed games as well. Instead of comparing games played you should compare at-bats: Beltran 427 and Pujols 407. 20 FREAKIN' AT-Bats. Thats an incredibly small differance.

Now that you see that lets compare thier stats.
(Thanks to Edgar to HOF... I agree by the way)
Now let's add stats that matter

Stat.....Beltran.......Pujols.........edge
AB.......427............407..........
Runs.....100...........93..............Beltran
Hits......122...........132.............Pujols
2B.........33............26..............Beltran
HR.........37............38..............Tie
RBI........106...........107............Tie
TB.........268...........274............Tie
XBH.......71.............65.............Beltran
BB..........72............70.............Tie
SO.........80............38..............Beltran (The 2nd most over-rated statistic)
SB..........15............5...............Beltran
BA.........<.286>......<.328>........Pujols (The most OVER-RATED statistic)
OBP.......<.388>......<.428>........Pujols (40 points igher)
SLG.......<.628>......<.680>........Pujols (52 points higher)
OPS.......<1.016>....<1.108>.......Pujols (92 points higher)

OK, with all of that digested, consider consider the other facets of the game where Beltran can make an IMPACT. His speed on the bases and in the field allow him to create runs and save them, Something Pujols cannot do.

leecemark

08-26-2006, 08:40 AM

--For me the missed games are a negative, not a mitagating factor. I'm only concerned with what they did to help their teams win not what they could have done if not for injuries.

roachboyevo

08-26-2006, 08:55 AM

--For me the missed games are a negative, not a mitagating factor. I'm only concerned with what they did to help their teams win not what they could have done if not for injuries.

If only those idiot writers thought that way.

roachboyevo

08-30-2006, 09:11 AM

Another day, another homer

EvanAparra

08-30-2006, 10:26 AM

Beltran? :laugh

He's no Bernie Williams.

Bernie Williams is no more deserving than Dawson or maybe even Beltran, at the end of Beltrans career. There are better players that are not in the HOF.

Fuzzy Bear

08-30-2006, 10:45 AM

Stat.....Beltran.......Pujols.........edge
AB.......427............407..........
Runs.....100...........93..............Beltran
Hits......122...........132.............Pujols
2B.........33............26..............Beltran
HR.........37............38..............Tie
RBI........106...........107............Tie
TB.........268...........274............Tie
XBH.......71.............65.............Beltran
BB..........72............70.............Tie
SO.........80............38..............Beltran (The 2nd most over-rated statistic)
SB..........15............5...............Beltran
BA.........<.286>......<.328>........Pujols (The most OVER-RATED statistic)
OBP.......<.388>......<.428>........Pujols (40 points igher)
SLG.......<.628>......<.680>........Pujols (52 points higher)
OPS.......<1.016>....<1.108>.......Pujols (92 points higher)

OK, with all of that digested, consider consider the other facets of the game where Beltran can make an IMPACT. His speed on the bases and in the field allow him to create runs and save them, Something Pujols cannot do.

While BA is an OVERRATED stat, it is still MORE IMPORTANT than many of the UNDERRATED stats. BA drives OBP, SLG, and OPS; without BA, those numbers all go down. Without BA, you could have a killer secondary average and not get on base enough to justify your place in the lineup.

All of this trivializing BA around here blows off the fundamental truth that BA measures the most important ability of a position player; the ability to put the bat on the ball and drive it for a hit. If you lose that ability, plate discipline and speed won't matter; all a pitcher has to do is throw strikes and you're done. BA represents a measurement of a skill that cannot be learned at the MLB level; if you can't hit by the time you're in the bigs, you're not going to learn how to at that point. Baseball is harder than that; or, more precisely, hitting a pitched baseball is harder than that.

I will grant roachboyevo that Beltran's baserunning and defensive skills are superior to Pujols', and are real, even if they are subjective, so the numbers don't tell the whole story. But if we are going to be subjective, then, subjectively, I would rather have Pujols on my team then Beltran, because Pujols is far more consistent from year to year. If it's close, I give Pujols extra credit for year to year consistency; it's a valid tie-breaker, I think.

Beltran, as MVP, is not an unreasonable pick, but he's far from an obvious choice. It's a crowded race this year, and Beltran wouldn't be the favorite, even with Pujols out of it. Really, why Beltran and not Miguel Cabrera or Ryan Howard?

Skin & Bones

08-30-2006, 02:36 PM

Beltran is having the best year of his career this season. He currently leads the majors with 34 WinShares. The highest total of his career.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/?view=winshares

roachboyevo

08-31-2006, 11:04 AM

While BA is an OVERRATED stat, it is still MORE IMPORTANT than many of the UNDERRATED stats. BA drives OBP, SLG, and OPS; without BA, those numbers all go down. Without BA, you could have a killer secondary average and not get on base enough to justify your place in the lineup.

All of this trivializing BA around here blows off the fundamental truth that BA measures the most important ability of a position player; the ability to put the bat on the ball and drive it for a hit. If you lose that ability, plate discipline and speed won't matter; all a pitcher has to do is throw strikes and you're done. BA represents a measurement of a skill that cannot be learned at the MLB level; if you can't hit by the time you're in the bigs, you're not going to learn how to at that point. Baseball is harder than that; or, more precisely, hitting a pitched baseball is harder than that.

I will grant roachboyevo that Beltran's baserunning and defensive skills are superior to Pujols', and are real, even if they are subjective, so the numbers don't tell the whole story. But if we are going to be subjective, then, subjectively, I would rather have Pujols on my team then Beltran, because Pujols is far more consistent from year to year. If it's close, I give Pujols extra credit for year to year consistency; it's a valid tie-breaker, I think.

Beltran, as MVP, is not an unreasonable pick, but he's far from an obvious choice. It's a crowded race this year, and Beltran wouldn't be the favorite, even with Pujols out of it. Really, why Beltran and not Miguel Cabrera or Ryan Howard?

Ok well, yea
you're right but what you say does not apply to beltran. He still has a very good on-base percentage and a killer slugging percentage, so your point is so kind of unnecessary.

Captain Cold Nose

08-31-2006, 12:01 PM

Ok well, yea
you're right but what you say does not apply to beltran. He still has a very good on-base percentage and a killer slugging percentage, so your point is so kind of unnecessary.
His point may have been a general one, though. There are quite a few people here who deem ba as worthless, and seem to hold walking as far more valuable than hitting, as opposed to just being a component of plate command.

overhandgas53

09-02-2006, 02:38 PM

three words: 5-tool player

Fuzzy Bear

09-02-2006, 10:24 PM

Ok well, yea
you're right but what you say does not apply to beltran. He still has a very good on-base percentage and a killer slugging percentage, so your point is so kind of unnecessary.

But tell me, specifically, why Beltran should be MVP and not Ryan Howard or Miguel Cabrera.

Cabrera hits for a much higher average in a pitcher-friendly park, and plays third base. Ryan Howard well may hit 60 HRs this year.

If you want to talk up Beltran because you're a Met fan, that's OK. I'm a bit of a "homer" when it comes to Miguel Cabrera and the Marlins. I don't particularly care for Ryan Howard, and I think that, subjectively, Pujols is the best in the game. When you say Beltran should be a favorite for the MVP (if you are saying that), shouldn't you also be specifying why Beltran and NOT the other main candidates? Why Beltran and NOT Pujols, Cabrera, Howard, etc.?

Fuzzy Bear

09-02-2006, 10:26 PM

His point may have been a general one, though. There are quite a few people here who deem ba as worthless, and seem to hold walking as far more valuable than hitting, as opposed to just being a component of plate command.

Yes, my point about BA was a general one. I agree that walks are something the batter does (as opposed to something the pitcher does) but walks are a component of offense. Hitting the baseball is the main component of offense; if you can't hit the baseball for a hit, a pitcher can throw strikes all day long and you'd hit .000.

538280

09-03-2006, 08:05 AM

I honestly don't get why anyone would take Howard over Beltran this year. All Howard has is the HRs, but despite that the SLG difference is minimal. Let's look at their three primary rates this season, BA/OBP/SLG

Howard: .301/.395/.640
Beltran: .286/.386/.626

Looking at that numbers, it appears they're been just about the exact same hitter this season, just Howard toned up a tiny bit more. Thus, knowing this I should have no trouble taking Beltran from the beginning, since he is a great defensive CFer and baserunner, while Howard is a 1Bman and nothing special in the field or on the basepaths.

When you adjust for park, it's even more not close. Citzens Bank Park's Park Factor this season has been 108, Shea's has been 93. If we halve those and apply it to their numbers, we get this:

Howard: .288/.389/.615
Beltran: .296/.400/.648

That makes Beltran clearly the more valuable hitter this season. Then when you take into account the performance of their teams as well, I'm puzzled as to why Howard could be considered better. I think it's just people getting caught up in triple crown statistics.

jalbright

09-03-2006, 09:54 AM

I honestly don't get why anyone would take Howard over Beltran this year. All Howard has is the HRs, but despite that the SLG difference is minimal.
................
. Then when you take into account the performance of their teams as well, I'm puzzled as to why Howard could be considered better. I think it's just people getting caught up in triple crown statistics.

First of all, MVP isn't the best player award. Here, the Mets' runaway doesn't help Beltran. It's likely they would have won the division without him. If the Phils squeak into the playoffs, it's highly unlikely the same could be said about Howard. That may be wrongheaded and all that, but it certainly is a phenomenon well established in the voting.

Also, in what I would clearly agree is an example of wrongheadedness in the voting, Howard is flirting with a notable achievement, 60 HR. That focuses attention on him in a way Beltran's defensive play doesn't focus attention on him.

Jim Albright

roachboyevo

09-03-2006, 02:02 PM

But tell me, specifically, why Beltran should be MVP and not Ryan Howard or Miguel Cabrera.

Cabrera hits for a much higher average in a pitcher-friendly park, and plays third base. Ryan Howard well may hit 60 HRs this year.

If you want to talk up Beltran because you're a Met fan, that's OK. I'm a bit of a "homer" when it comes to Miguel Cabrera and the Marlins. I don't particularly care for Ryan Howard, and I think that, subjectively, Pujols is the best in the game. When you say Beltran should be a favorite for the MVP (if you are saying that), shouldn't you also be specifying why Beltran and NOT the other main candidates? Why Beltran and NOT Pujols, Cabrera, Howard, etc.?

All of this debate is subjective. There is no way to say that one of the four does not derserve the award. Because Pujols, Beltran, Howard, and Cabrera all deserve the MVP award. At this points it's subjective.

And if Cabrera's power numbers were closer to the others I'd give it to him, but since they're not, It's Beltran's award.

MVP formula: 50%who's the best player 25%who's on the best team 25%where would the team be without said player

538280

09-03-2006, 05:07 PM

First of all, MVP isn't the best player award. Here, the Mets' runaway doesn't help Beltran. It's likely they would have won the division without him. If the Phils squeak into the playoffs, it's highly unlikely the same could be said about Howard. That may be wrongheaded and all that, but it certainly is a phenomenon well established in the voting.

This is something that I may be willing to take into account, but then what about Pujols? Without him the Cards probably wouldn't be at the front of their division, and his hitting has been stronger than Howard's this year, so much stronger that it makes up for the games missed. If the Marlins can win the WC, Miguel Cabrera would certainly be a good choice (and better than Howard IMO).

Also, in what I would clearly agree is an example of wrongheadedness in the voting, Howard is flirting with a notable achievement, 60 HR. That focuses attention on him in a way Beltran's defensive play doesn't focus attention on him.

Jim Albright

Yes, and this is a perfect example of why I have a hard time putting stock in MVP voting or anything voted on by the BBWAA. Howard can get 60 HRs, and it will be a great accomplishment, but it definitely does not make him the best or most valuable player in the National League.

kearns643

09-03-2006, 05:22 PM

And the 8% must be the New York voters for sure.......please get a clue...

JimAbbott

09-04-2006, 06:39 AM

Way too early to tell. He may well have it in him though

Sockeye

06-27-2008, 12:28 PM

What do we think of Carlos Beltran's HOF chances at this point in time?

jjpm74

06-27-2008, 12:36 PM

It's still too early to tell. If he plays another 8-10 years at his current pace, he has a chance, but to this point, he hasn't done anything that shows me he's a HOFer.

Sockeye

06-27-2008, 12:39 PM

It's still too early to tell. If he plays another 8-10 years at his current pace, he has a chance, but to this point, he hasn't done anything that shows me he's a HOFer.

No HOF caliber seasons so far in his career? Not on a HOF pace through age 31?

Senor Octobre

06-27-2008, 12:53 PM

Gimme three or four more seasons like '06 and we'll talk

Cougar

06-27-2008, 01:07 PM

His peak to-date isn't so high that he can afford a short career, and he's hasn't been the most consistent player.

I agree that we still are in wait-and-see mode here.

Sockeye

06-27-2008, 01:18 PM

Gimme three or four more seasons like '06 and we'll talk

That's asking alot. How many CFer in history have 4-5 seasons with a 150 OPS+, 303 TB, 127 RC, 8.8 R/C, .327 EQA, 12.4 WARP3, while also winning a gold glove? Without taking the time to look it up I'm going to go out on a limb and say...not very many?

abolishthedh

06-27-2008, 01:37 PM

As a fan who's followed Beltran since his rookie year in KC and seen him play, I have to support him for the following reasons:

1. He has played in two parks which are less than favorable for hitters, Kauffman Stadium in KC and Shea. His brief stay in a hitter's park provided a clue over what might have been in a more offensive friendly environment. Fans who support him might hope that the new stadium is hitter-friendly.

2. He is a five tool player, who happens to be a quieter personality. He doesn't revel in the spotlight or go searching for it. It takes a lot to get him riled up, as we saw a couple of nights ago in his run-in with the umpire, Runge. This combination will help him over time because he plays hard, and then goes home.

3. He starts virtually every year a bit slowly, and then finishes with a stronger second half. I have said several times that this is how he stayed under the radar in KC. His strong postseason during his 1/2 season with Houston was no surprise because it helped him stay hot at the plate. In other words, he should continue to do well in the postseason because I don't believe the last time was a fluke.

4. He hasn't been that inconsistent, outside of the HR column.

5. He is learning at the plate... note the increase in his walk rate this year. This is new for him.

Considering his style of play, we will have to wait. The most similar player who comes to mind would be Bobby Bonds (Barry's dad). Bobby Bonds declined suddenly, so it will definitely be a waiting game.:thumbsup:

Sockeye

06-27-2008, 01:45 PM

His peak to-date isn't so high that he can afford a short career, and he's hasn't been the most consistent player.

I agree that we still are in wait-and-see mode here.

Depending on your definition of "short career" I'll agree with that. This is his 11th season. He needs possibly 6, probably 7 more heathy/productive seasons. If he can do that he should have a very strong HOF case.

Senor Octobre

06-27-2008, 02:39 PM

That's asking alot. How many CFer in history have 4-5 seasons with a 150 OPS+, 303 TB, 127 RC, 8.8 R/C, .327 EQA, 12.4 WARP3, while also winning a gold glove? Without taking the time to look it up I'm going to go out on a limb and say...not very many?

And how many CFer's with only one season like that, in today's juiced environment, deserve to be in the HOF?

jjpm74

06-27-2008, 02:44 PM

No HOF caliber seasons so far in his career? Not on a HOF pace through age 31?

The problem with Beltran is he has no peak to speak of. He's always been good, but never great.

Sockeye

06-27-2008, 03:11 PM

And how many CFer's with only one season like that, in today's juiced environment, deserve to be in the HOF?

Depends on what else they do. Beltran already has 6 seasons with 100+ runs, 7 seasons with 100+ rbi, 5 seasons with 300+ total bases, 7 seasons with 100+ runs created, 3 seasons with a 130 OPS+, 5 seasons with over a 7.0 RC/G, 3 seasons with over a 10.0 WARP3, 4 seasons with over a .300 eqa,
4 seasons of 30+ stolen bases with a great 88.2% success rate, a very good throwing arm (97 outfield assists), 4 time allstar (3 started), 2 gold gloves, .366 average and 1.302 OPS in 22 game post-season games.

Has anyone ever suggested Beltran used steroids? Not that I know of. So his stats being clean are more impressive in this era.

Sockeye

06-27-2008, 03:23 PM

The problem with Beltran is he has no peak to speak of. He's always been good, but never great.

2006 wasn't great? 2003-04? He hasn't had the 3 great years in a row if that is what you mean but it's hard to say he hasn't been great. 2001 & 2007 are at very least very very good if not great. In 2001 his OPS was 122 and he was 31/32 in stolen bases. Take out his one bad season in 05 and his 5 year OPS+ peak would be 132,132,150,126 & 128 assuming he continues at his current pace this season. That's not a half bad peak when taking into account his baserunning & defense as a centerfielder.

jjpm74

06-27-2008, 03:34 PM

2006 wasn't great? 2003-04? He hasn't had the 3 great years in a row if that is what you mean but it's hard to say he hasn't been great. 2001 & 2007 are at very least very very good if not great. In 2001 his OPS was 122 and he was 31/32 in stolen bases. Take out his one bad season in 05 and his 5 year OPS+ peak would be 132,132,150,126 & 128 assuming he continues at his current pace this season. That's not a half bad peak when taking into account his baserunning & defense as a centerfielder.

Right. He hasn't even had 3 good years in a row. How about 6 good years in a row? That's usually the bare minimum before a player gets mentioned in the same breath as the HOF. Especially a player who is 31 years old and still in the prime of his career.

For someone Beltran's age with only 11 years under his belt to be a HOFer, he needs a peak like the one Alex Rodriguez has going from 1996-2008. At this point in time, I wouldn't even put Pujols in HOF conversations as he hasn't had enough time to prove himself (he probably will be there in 2 years). Otherwise, there's not much point in projecting what someone at the half way point in his career; particularly a career that's been good but not great is going to end up doing. Do you honestly think that if Beltran stopped playing today that he'd be a HOFer? Give me 6 more good years minimum and then let's see where he stands. If he's standing at a good peak and several milestones, he's in. If not, he's just another guy who's flame burned out before he could get there.

Sockeye

06-27-2008, 05:31 PM

Right. He hasn't even had 3 good years in a row. How about 6 good years in a row? That's usually the bare minimum before a player gets mentioned in the same breath as the HOF. Especially a player who is 31 years old and still in the prime of his career.

For someone Beltran's age with only 11 years under his belt to be a HOFer, he needs a peak like the one Alex Rodriguez has going from 1996-2008. At this point in time, I wouldn't even put Pujols in HOF conversations as he hasn't had enough time to prove himself (he probably will be there in 2 years). Otherwise, there's not much point in projecting what someone at the half way point in his career; particularly a career that's been good but not great is going to end up doing. Do you honestly think that if Beltran stopped playing today that he'd be a HOFer? Give me 6 more good years minimum and then let's see where he stands. If he's standing at a good peak and several milestones, he's in. If not, he's just another guy who's flame burned out before he could get there.

I don't believe that I or anyone else has ever said that if Beltran retired today that he'd deserve HOF induction. As I said in a previous post he needs "possibly 6, probably 7 more healthy/productive seasons". This is about whether or not he is on a HOF pace. I think the answer to that question is a yes. Of course a lot can go wrong that could derail his chances. But given another 6/7 seasons where he averages .270/90 R/25 HR/90 RBI/115 OPS+ he'll deserve induction.

jjpm74

06-27-2008, 06:10 PM

This is about whether or not he is on a HOF pace. I think the answer to that question is a yes. Of course a lot can go wrong that could derail his chances. But given another 6/7 seasons where he averages .270/90 R/25 HR/90 RBI/115 OPS+ he'll deserve induction.

The answer to that, IMO is that it's too hard to tell whether or not he's on a HOF pace. If he had even a 4 year stretch where his numbers were consistent, I could see projecting him as on a HOF pace. The problem is that he doesn't have the consistency typical of a guy on a HOF track, but his counting numbers assuming a normal peak and decline could put him close. It's too hard to tell and difficult to assume the numbers you posted as accurate as they do not factor in decline as he ages.

Seattle1

06-27-2008, 06:22 PM

I am still going to say "no" on Beltran at this point in time.

Sockeye

06-27-2008, 06:36 PM

The answer to that, IMO is that it's too hard to tell whether or not he's on a HOF pace. If he had even a 4 year stretch where his numbers were consistent, I could see projecting him as on a HOF pace. The problem is that he doesn't have the consistency typical of a guy on a HOF track, but his counting numbers assuming a normal peak and decline could put him close. It's too hard to tell and difficult to assume the numbers you posted as accurate as they do not factor in decline as he ages.

The numbers I posted are considering his decline. I fully expect that barring injury his numbers should be above the .270/90 R/25 HR/90 RBI/115 OPS+ for the next 2-3 seasons then one or two at or around those posted, followed by a 2-3 seasons at below what was posted. Perhaps something in the .250/70 R/15 HR/75 RBI/100 OPS+ range.

Unless you look solely at the OPS+ number (his worst being a very solid 114) Beltran has had 4 very good years in a row already from 2001-04. All four seasons he scored 100+ runs, hit 24+ home runs, drove in 100+ runs, stole 30+ bases, 115+ runs created, all while playing an excellent defensive centerfield.

Senor Octobre

06-27-2008, 06:52 PM

But given another 6/7 seasons where he averages .270/90 R/25 HR/90 RBI/115 OPS+ he'll deserve induction.

115? His glove's not good enough for a career OPS+ of 115-117 to get him in.

Sockeye

06-27-2008, 07:27 PM

115? His glove's not good enough for a career OPS+ of 115-117 to get him in.

It's not just about his glove and OPS+. Counting stats and baserunning matters. Was Paul Molitor's glove good enough to get him in with a 122 OPS+? Considering he spent most of his time at DH highly doubtful. Yet he is in the HOF because the voters look at more than just OPS+

Senor Octobre

06-27-2008, 07:36 PM

Senor Octobre

06-27-2008, 07:44 PM

Yet he is in the HOF because the voters look at more than just OPS+

Wait, are we talking about whether Beltran SHOULD deserve induction or whether he will be inducted?

Walt Zink

06-27-2008, 07:45 PM

Right. He hasn't even had 3 good years in a row. How about 6 good years in a row? That's usually the bare minimum before a player gets mentioned in the same breath as the HOF. Especially a player who is 31 years old and still in the prime of his career.

For someone Beltran's age with only 11 years under his belt to be a HOFer, he needs a peak like the one Alex Rodriguez has going from 1996-2008. At this point in time, I wouldn't even put Pujols in HOF conversations as he hasn't had enough time to prove himself (he probably will be there in 2 years). Otherwise, there's not much point in projecting what someone at the half way point in his career; particularly a career that's been good but not great is going to end up doing. Do you honestly think that if Beltran stopped playing today that he'd be a HOFer? Give me 6 more good years minimum and then let's see where he stands. If he's standing at a good peak and several milestones, he's in. If not, he's just another guy who's flame burned out before he could get there.

pujols is 3 years younger, and already has almost as many hits and RBIs as beltran, with about 50 more home runs, not to mention a BA over 50 points higher. toss in a WS ring, and an MVP is one of the few cities that can make the claim of being a "baseball town" and as long as he can last a few more seasons, he's most certainly in. hell, he only needs two more to be considered. he's putting up the sort of numbers albert belle did, but with a much better attitude.

jjpm74

06-27-2008, 07:56 PM

pujols is 3 years younger, and already has almost as many hits and RBIs as beltran, with about 50 more home runs, not to mention a BA over 50 points higher. toss in a WS ring, and an MVP is one of the few cities that can make the claim of being a "baseball town" and as long as he can last a few more seasons, he's most certainly in. hell, he only needs two more to be considered. he's putting up the sort of numbers albert belle did, but with a much better attitude.

People said the same thing about Mattingly when he was in his prime and look at what happened to him. Pujols has undoubtedly one of the best peaks in the history of the game. Give him 10 full years and he's in. Right now, he's still too early in his career to be a lock.

Senor Octobre

06-27-2008, 08:09 PM

People said the same thing about Mattingly when he was in his prime

Firstly, Pujols is better than Mattingly could ever dream of being. Secondly, while I believe Pujols is a HOFer now, he still needs two more seasons under his belt in order to qualify according to the rules. Of course, if some sort of unspeakable tragedy should befall him before then its hard to say what would happen...

Walt Zink

06-27-2008, 08:20 PM

People said the same thing about Mattingly when he was in his prime and look at what happened to him. Pujols has undoubtedly one of the best peaks in the history of the game. Give him 10 full years and he's in. Right now, he's still too early in his career to be a lock.

pujols is MUCH better overall than mattingly. already over 70 more HRs, only about 150-175 RBIs behind him, not to mention a career BA about 25 points higher. and not to mention pujols is actually a pretty good defensive first baseman.

Windy City Fan

06-27-2008, 08:36 PM

Beltran almost definately needs at least one or two more big years to be a serious candidate. To date he's had exactly one standout season and 2 or 3 very good years. One more big MVP quality season and a couple of more very good years would help him out. Even if he does that, he's got to stay productive and play to about 40 probably to get the counting stats up.

Its possible Beltran could make it. He's got a few other things going for him with his strong glove and excellent stolen base numbers making him a legit 5 tool player.

Sockeye

06-27-2008, 09:07 PM

Molitor was a superb baserunner, a world series MVP, had a career OBP of .369 and was a better than average fielder at 3B, 2B, and 1B but injuries kept him at DH. And if you're a counting stats man, then Paul Molitor had them in scores. I myself don't believe that Paul Molitor was the slam dunk HOFer that some see him as, but he's deserving, and while Beltran has the potential to be a better player than Molitor, I just don't see that happening.

Don't get me wrong I loved Molitor as a player. Might be his biggest fan. But if you are somehow saying that that glovework is needed to add to or make up for a players OPS+ total it just isn't the case.
Beltran's OBP is a very respectable .356 with far more power than Molitor. And while Molitor may have been an above average fielder at his positions. The fact remains that Molitor spent most of his games at DH thus creating little defensive value.

Cougar

06-27-2008, 09:09 PM

If Pujols missed the rest of '08, then went 0 for 2009 and 0 for 1 in 2010, he'd be a HOFer.

Offensively, the guy is DiMaggio without WWII interrupting his peak.

Sockeye

06-27-2008, 09:14 PM

Wait, are we talking about whether Beltran SHOULD deserve induction or whether he will be inducted?

Mmmm good question....since we don't always agree with the writers I guess it's whether he should or not. Beltran is one thou that I think will be regardless. Of course I thought Dawson was beyond reproach as well and he isn't in yet. He is quite similar to Beltran. Still I hold out hopes the writers will come to their senses.

Brad Harris

06-27-2008, 09:44 PM

Still I hold out hopes the writers will come to their senses.
Still getting quarters from the tooth fairy too? :laugh

Sockeye

02-17-2009, 10:59 AM

PLEASE DO NOT MERGE THIS THREAD!!

It has been about 3 years since the last series of potential HOFer polls I ran. Thought I would do another series of polls. Below is a list of the players stats to date. Unlike the last series of polls I'm not going to list any career projections.

Carlos Beltran at age 31

1481 games
5719 at-bats
1035 runs
1605 hits
318 doubles
63 triples
263 home runs
987 RBI
275 stolen bases
683 BB
.281 AVG
.357 OBP
.496 SLG
118 OPS+
2838 total bases
6520 PA's
1079 runs created
6.7 RC/G
.621 OWP
148.2 batting runs
14.0 batting wins
1 black ink
66 gray ink
29.5 HOF standards
79.0 HOF monitor
.293 EQA
75.2 WARP1
86.6 WARP3
443 BRAR
250 BRAA
345 FRAR
90 FRAA
253 win shares

KCGHOST

02-17-2009, 11:04 AM

Tought question without projections. I went with "No", but that's for now.

jalbright

02-17-2009, 11:20 AM

I can merge the thread and preserve the newer poll. Beyond that, I fail to see why I shouldn't do so, though if you'd care to explain a further reason, I'll give you a few days to provide it.

Sockeye

02-17-2009, 11:37 AM

I can merge the thread and preserve the newer poll. Beyond that, I fail to see why I shouldn't do so, though if you'd care to explain a further reason, I'll give you a few days to provide it.

I'd like to have the older poll and thread kept as well so we can all see the difference in opinions from 2006 to 2009. I think the contrast will be quite interesting. I'd appreciate it if they could be kept seperate.

Senor Octobre

02-17-2009, 11:54 AM

Sockeye,

Why not give a reasonable projection (with a decline phase, etc) of what you think he'll end up with when he's done.

Brad Harris

02-17-2009, 12:12 PM

Five more productive years as one of the best center fielders in the league and he's in. A sharp decline in his skills or production and he's a one-and-done when his name is called.

jalbright

02-17-2009, 12:21 PM

I'd like to have the older poll and thread kept as well so we can all see the difference in opinions from 2006 to 2009. I think the contrast will be quite interesting. I'd appreciate it if they could be kept seperate.

I've consistently avoided doing that for other players, and, I see little reason not to continue to follow that policy. If you want to record the results from the prior poll in a post here, I'll give you a day to accomplish that.

Sockeye

02-17-2009, 12:35 PM

Sockeye,

Why not give a reasonable projection (with a decline phase, etc) of what you think he'll end up with when he's done.

I don't want to make this about my projections. Instead I'd rather focus on the player. Since you ask though I think Carlos Beltran should end up with around

2506 games
9406 at-bats
1629 runs
2589 hits
505 doubles
82 triples
428 home runs
1613 RBI
359 stolen bases
51 caught stealing
87.5 SB%
1167 BB
1741 SO
.275 AVG
.354 OBP
.485 SLG
4562 total bases
21 SH
123 SF
107 IBB
50 HBP
178 GDP

Senor Octobre

02-17-2009, 03:13 PM

I'm afraid to answer either way at this point. A season or two more like his '06 and the rest no worse than his '02 would do it for me I guess, as long as the defense was still there. Ideally, you don't want to see the career OPS+ sink below 115. How does he compare to Andruw Jones for you guys? Favorably?

henrich

02-17-2009, 06:56 PM

I have Jones with a slight edge right now, but his sharp decline will allow Beltran to catch up without a rebound season.

Sockeye

02-18-2009, 08:21 AM

In a poll a ran last year 85% of people believed that Max Carey deserves to be in the HOF. Can someone explain to me how Max Carey is better than Carlos Beltran? Perhaps I'm missing something here.

Freakshow

02-18-2009, 11:18 AM

jalbright

02-18-2009, 12:10 PM

Just creating this thread to put up the current poll. I can't save the recent results, so you'll have to vote again. Sorry.

jalbright

02-18-2009, 12:13 PM

In the 2006 poll, the vote was 71-15 that Beltran was not a HOFer (the "not sure" option wasn't available that time). FWIW, that's a 82.6% to 17.4% spread. I've posted the new poll to see how much (if at all) minds have changed over the past few years.

Sockeye

02-18-2009, 01:58 PM

One of Beltran's stumbling blocks is he wasn't as good as his contemporaries Bernie Williams and Jim Edmonds, neither of whom figure to get much support from the HOF voters. Here's the list of all players debuting since 1991 with 1000 G in CF and 100 OPS+:
Cnt Player OPS+ RC OBP PA G From To
+----+-----------------+----+----+-----+-----+----+----+----+
1 Jim Edmonds 132 1364 .377 7708 1925 1993 2008
2 Bernie Williams 125 1445 .381 9053 2076 1991 2006
3 Carlos Beltran 118 1079 .357 6520 1481 1998 2008
4 Andruw Jones 111 1104 .339 7514 1836 1996 2008
5 Vernon Wells 109 667 .332 4633 1078 1999 2008
6 Kenny Lofton 107 1386 .372 9234 2103 1991 2007
7 Mike Cameron 106 959 .340 6807 1680 1995 2008
8 Torii Hunter 105 737 .326 5502 1380 1997 2008
9 Johnny Damon 103 1296 .354 8807 1988 1995 2008 OTOH, Beltran's record is filled with 3-digit numbers in the RBI and R columns, which should be a turn-on for the BBWAA voters. At this point it's all about getting his counting numbers up to HOF-level. If he reaches 400 HR and 2500 hits he's a shoo-in, that's about 5-6 more years of good play.

A big difference between Edmonds, Williams, & Beltran is as you pointed out the 3 digit numbers in the RBI and R columns.

Beltran
1035 runs (100+ 7 times)
987 RBI (100+ 8 times)

Edmonds
1207 runs (100+ 4 times)
1176 RBI (100+ 4 times)

Williams
1366 runs (100+ 8 times)
1257 RBI (100+ 5 times)

Beltran is roughly 2-3 good seasons from surpassing Edmonds in both of these counting numbers depending on how much longer Edmonds plays. Likely 3 seasons from catching Williams in both catagories. Considering that Beltran is still only 31 that would put him where Williams/Edmonds is at by age 34. 3 years younger than Williams when he retired. Factor in another 3-4 seasons for Beltran even with declining numbers and his numbers should be well ahead of both Williams and Edmonds.

One interesting marker that Beltran holds, for the moment, is the highest career SB% in history:
SB CS SB%
Carlos Beltran 275 37 88.14%
Tim Raines 808 146 84.70%
Eric Davis 349 66 84.10%
Willie Wilson 668 134 83.29%
Barry Larkin 379 77 83.11%[/QUOTE]

The stolen base numbers are an added bonus and only adds to Beltran's already strong HOF case. When compared to his two main contemporaries

Beltran 275 37 88&
Williams 147 87 62%
Edmonds 65 50 56%

This helps to close to OPS+ gap

As for Carey, he had a similar OPS+ over a similar number of PA, 1915-25 Cnt Player OPS+ RC OBP PA G From To
+----+-----------------+----+----+-----+-----+----+----+----+
1 Max Carey 116 919 .374 6727 1501 1915 1925 [/QUOTE]

If you single out Max Carey's 11 best seasons during his prime his OPS+ is close to Beltran's career OPS+. But if you look at Carey's best seasons according to OPS+ compared to Beltran's they clearly do not measure up.

Beltran 150, 132, 132, 129, 126, 122
Carey 126, 125, 122, 120, 119, 117

Beltran still has another couple seasons in his prime so the numbers could very well end up even more lopsided.

Sockeye

02-18-2009, 02:02 PM

mwiggins

02-18-2009, 02:37 PM

In a poll a ran last year 85% of people believed that Max Carey deserves to be in the HOF. Can someone explain to me how Max Carey is better than Carlos Beltran? Perhaps I'm missing something here.

It's apples and oranges. Carey had a full career and he's a deserving HoFer. Doesn't mean Beltran won't be as well when he's done, but he's not there yet. Carey did enough in his career to merit the Hall, Beltran hasn't yet. And Beltran isn't thought by most to be a future Hall of Famer. From that team Wright and Reyes and Santana are though of that way, but Beltran's kind of underappreciated. So he's still got quite a bit to do. He's only a 4 time All-Star, and has only 1 top 5 MVP finish.

Plus, he's an all-around guy, which isn't as easy for the voters to recognize. Very good fielder, but he's not an Ozzie Smith type defensive whiz. Very good hitter, but he doesn't often stand out as a dominant hitter. He's not going to have a ton of HR's or a big time BA. He's up against a lot of obstacles. Luckily he has that monster post season from 2004 in his record.

And Carey doesn't have to be "better" than Beltran to be a deserving HoFer. The HoF isn't just based on which player is better. Charlie Keller was a better player than both guys, but he's not a deserving HoFer.

Sockeye

02-18-2009, 09:47 PM

It's apples and oranges. Carey had a full career and he's a deserving HoFer. Doesn't mean Beltran won't be as well when he's done, but he's not there yet. Carey did enough in his career to merit the Hall, Beltran hasn't yet. And Beltran isn't thought by most to be a future Hall of Famer. From that team Wright and Reyes and Santana are though of that way, but Beltran's kind of underappreciated. So he's still got quite a bit to do. He's only a 4 time All-Star, and has only 1 top 5 MVP finish.

This poll isn't asking if Beltran is a HOFer as of today. Rather if he will be when he retires. I disagree that Wright, Reyes, and Santana are more thought of as future HOFers than Beltran. They are all younger with fewer great seasons to their credit. Wright, Reyes, and Santana may be portrayed as biggers stars due to their flashy styles of play or personalities. Beltran isn't one that seeks media attention. Instead he goes out and does his job every day season after season and is putting up HOF caliber numbers in the process.

Plus, he's an all-around guy, which isn't as easy for the voters to recognize. Very good fielder, but he's not an Ozzie Smith type defensive whiz. Very good hitter, but he doesn't often stand out as a dominant hitter. He's not going to have a ton of HR's or a big time BA. He's up against a lot of obstacles. Luckily he has that monster post season from 2004 in his record.

Carlos Beltran could very well be the best defensive CFer in the NL today if not all of baseball. His range factor per game is 2.72 compared to a league average of 1.98. Compare that to say Torii Hunter who might be considered the best in the AL 2.63 to 2.03. Beltran is credited with 90 FRAA compared to 36 FRAA for Hunter. No, he isn't an Ozzie Smith but then he isn't SS either. He isn't an overly dominant hitter but then his position doesn't call for him to be the way a 1B or corner OF position does. He should end up with over 400 home runs by the time he retires. Only Mays, Griffey, Mantle, & Dawson among CFers.

And Carey doesn't have to be "better" than Beltran to be a deserving HoFer. The HoF isn't just based on which player is better. Charlie Keller was a better player than both guys, but he's not a deserving HoFer.

That has everything to do with longevity. If Beltran plays roughly the same amount of games over his career that Carey did. Right now he needs to average about 142 games over the next 7 seasons or til the age of 38 to reach Carey's total his counting totals will be much better than Carey's as will his production numbers. At that point there will be no good argument as to why Carey should be in cooperstown and Beltran shouldn't. Beltran is getting to the point now where given just a normal decline his numbers should easily fall well over the HOF line. 253 win shares at the age of 31. Carey had 215 through the same age. Carlos Beltran has a good chance to end up with between 350-400 win shares. Even a poor defensive 1B with no speed that gets to 360+ win shares is a virtual lock for the HOF.

philkid3

02-18-2009, 09:59 PM

Very close on Beltran, but not positive.

I certainly cannot say no easily.

Fuzzy Bear

02-21-2009, 07:43 PM

Beltran is improving his chances; he's hanging in there, and he's become a bit more consistent from year to year.

Power/Speed guys traditionally do poorly in HOF voting, but that doesn't bean they're not HOF-worthy. It's hard to see Beltran being a 1st ballot guy. If he goes into the HOF, it's because he'll "grow on" the voters over time.

I think that the most important thing Beltran can do is win more CF Gold Gloves. He's won 3 in a row, and he will soon lay claim to being the best defensive CF in the NL for his era. 3-4 more GGs, and Beltran stands out a bit more. If he doesn't do that, he's another Power/Speed guy struggling for a niche. I think he'll put in a HOF-worthy career, but I'm not sure that this will be recognized.

Sockeye

10-07-2009, 01:43 PM

The knee injury probably didn't help his chances. Only playing 81 games this season. However his rate stats were some of the best of his career. .325/.415/.500/141 OPS+ At age 32 this shows that age isn't an issue yet. At the same time the knee injury could be a concern. All and all this tells me that next season (2010) could be a very important one to Beltran's HOF chances. He doesn't need to have a huge season. His counting stats are still very good for his age. He will need to stay healthy and show the injury isn't going to be a lingering concern or something that will shorten his career. If he can do that and put up numbers close to his career average he should continue well on his way to the HOF.

Cowtipper

10-07-2009, 03:17 PM

Beltran is a perpetual "maybe. I can tell you one thing...when the Mets lost him this year, they lost a lot.

It's kind of interesting, that despite posting a 136 OPS+ since 2006, his career OPS+ is only 119.

abolishthedh

10-08-2009, 09:36 AM

Players of Beltran's type tend to age fairly well, given any luck. By his type, I mean consistent 4-tool players (can run, hit for average, hit for power and catch the ball). Only his arm is average (and admittedly maybe below average). The consistency factor is a key matter. He may not be consistent in the homerun column, but he is consistent on everything else.

It could help his case this year that the Mets seem to fold after Beltran was officially on the DL.

I voted yes, but it is a hopeful yes, because his career trajectory should get him there. This is to say he isn't there yet, but I like his chances.

PVNICK

10-08-2009, 10:10 AM

I don't know. He doesn't have that bets palyer in the league cachet going for him, which means he may need 1500, 1600+ R/RBI 400+ HR and that average needs to stay on the long side of .280. Bernie william swill be an interesting test case for him. To me it sucks b/c for me he needs maybe another two outstanding years (meaning on a par with his last few nothing more) to squeeze through the door. But when guys like Trammell and Whitaker are barely getting any support. I just don't know how a player will get in who is neither a 3000 hit club member or a semi-perrenial MVP candidate.