2009 Season Preview AL EAST

[Zagi-CRO]

Boston Red Sox
Prediction: 98 -64 1st place :waving

In: RHP John Smoltz, RHP Brad Penny, OF Rocco Baldelli, C Josh Bard, RHP Ramon Ramirez, RHP Takashi Saito.
Out: RHP David Aardsma, RHP Paul Byrd, 1B Sean Casey, C Kevin Cash, INF Alex Cora, OF Coco Crisp, RHP Mike Timlin.

The Red Sox has made potentially high-reward postseason's moves. Their bullpen seems very strong with Saito and Smoltz. Adding Penny has bolstered the rotation. Everything seems excellent, right now. The Red Sox is going to catch the division pennant or wild card.
Keep an eye on L.Anderson, M.Bowden, N.Hagadone, D.Bard, Os.Tejada, Ju.Tazawa.

New York Yankees
Prediction: 96 -66 2nd place wild card :waving

In: 1B Mark Teixeira, LHP CC Sabathia, RHP A.J. Burnett, OF-1B Nick Swisher, INF Angel Berroa, C Kevin Cash, RHP Jason Johnson, INF Justin Leone, OF Todd Linden, RHP Sergio Mitre.
Out: RHP Mike Mussina, RF Bobby Abreu, 1B Jason Giambi, C Ivan Rodriguez, RHP Sidney Ponson, RHP Darrell Rasner, INF Wilson Betemit, RHP Carl Pavano, C Chad Moeller, RHP Chris Britton, OF Justin Christian.

After missing postseason for the first time since 1993, the Yankees spent winter's $425 million for Teixera, Sabathia, Burnett and Swisher. Could it be enough for the title? Rivera is 39 now, Posada is 37-y-old, what's with A-Rod, Matsui ? But, they will catch wild-card, surely.
Keep an eye on A.Jackson, J.Montero.

Tampa Bay Rays
Prediction: 87 -75 3rd place :debate:

In: DH-OF Pat Burrell, OF Matt Joyce, OF Gabe Kapler, RHP Joe Nelson, RHP Lance Cormier.
Out: RF-DH Rocco Baldelli, DH Cliff Floyd, OF-DH Jonny Gomes, RHP Edwin Jackson, LHP Trever Miller, OF Eric Hinske.

The biggest surprise of 2007 with payroll of $30 mill. If the Rays were not in the toughest division, they would catch the title. After the Yankees and the RedSox big arrivals, the Rays will remain on the third place, unfortunately.
Keep an eye on D.Price, T.Beckham, R.Brignac, W.Davis, J.Hellickson, J.Niemann, D.Jennings, J.McGee.

Toronto Blue Jays
Prediction: 78 -84 4th place :rainy:

In: C Michael Barrett, RHP Bryan Bullington, LHP Brian Burres, C Raul Chavez, RHP Matt Clement, INF Brandon Fahey, RHP Dirk Hayhurst, OF Jason Lane, LHP Mike Maroth, DH Randy Ruiz.
Out: RHP A.J. Burnett, OF Kevin Mench, LHP John Parrish, OF Brad Wilkerson, C Gregg Zaun.

The Blue Jays lost Burnett, Shaun Marcum will miss the season … their strength now is their weekness. The Blue Jays didn't sign big-money free agents and they will dropp under 0.500 mark. It could be a long season for Canadians.
Keep an eye on T.Snider, B.Cecil, JP Arencibia.

Baltimore Orioles
Prediction: 66 -96 5th place :cry:

In: INF-OF Ty Wigginton, RHP Koji Uehara, LHP Mark Hendrickson, SS Cesar Izturis, C Gregg Zaun, INF-OF Ryan Freel, OF Felix Pie, RHP David Pauley, LHP Rich Hill, LHP John Parrish, INF Chris Gomez, C Chad Moeller.
Out: C Ramon Hernandez, LHP Garrett Olson, SS Luis Hernandez, SS Freddie Bynum, SS Brandon Fahey, SS Alex Cintron, SS Juan Castro, SS Eider Torres, RHP Daniel Cabrera, RHP Lance Cormier, OF Jay Payton, RHP Randor Bierd.

The Orioles will have 13th consecutive loosing season. Their rotation with J.Guthrie as 1st spot is very weak. The lineup is better then few seasons ago with Wigginton, Freel, Pie, Izturis as newcomers.
But, the Orioles don’t have a chance for the 0.500 mark.
Not,in AL West.
Keep an eye on M.Wieters, Ch.Tillman, Br.Matusz, B.Erbe.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Please, state your opinion...:lightbulb:
Txs!
For Moderator --> AL EAST /not AL WEST/ of course, please could you change ...

[Seattle1]

I think those teams might actualy be in the AL East, not the West as the thread title indicates.

:twocents:

[gman5431]

Well i surely hope the Yankees dont win this division. I really dont. Also, i sadly see a fall off from the young Rays. Kind of like the Indians last year. I would pick Red Sox, Yanks (WC), Jays, Rays, O's - with only the top 2 teams over .500.

G Man

[philkid3]

I still don't understand how people could be so surprised by the Rays for them to be the biggest surprise. Maybe people pay less attention to young players and reliable projections than I think.

[Zagi-CRO]

I still don't understand how people could be so surprised by the Rays for them to be the biggest surprise. Maybe people pay less attention to young players and reliable projections than I think.

The Rays were the biggest surprise of 2008, becoming the second team in major league history to make the postseason after finishing with the worst record in baseball the year before...

[mrakbaseball]

The Rays were the biggest surprise of 2007, becoming the second team in major league history to make the postseason after finishing with the worst record in baseball the year before...

The Rays won the American League in 2008 not 2007. Do you not know what year it is? :rolleyes:

[Zagi-CRO]

The Rays won the American League in 2008 not 2007. Do you not know what year it is? :rolleyes:


2008!!!
:bowdown: :hissyfit::atthepc

[Imgran]

I have had mornings like this.

Kinda surprised the Sox wind up at the top of the preseason projections. That'll be Smoltz and Saito, two pitchers I'm not even sure will throw a pitch for Boston in 2009, changing the numbers a bit.

That said the Sox pen is easily the best in the American League East on paper, Saito or no Saito, with Papelbon, Oki, MDC, and Ram-Ram all seemingly viable late inning arms. If Saito is healthy we basically have 2 closers (Paps, Saito) and 3 setup men (Oki, MDC, Ram-Ram). Wow. And that's without Masterson who I have pegged as a guy who will probably do some starting next year considering some of the fragility in the Boston rotation.

Rating the bullpens:

Boston
New Yok (can't rate them lower until Mariano is gone!)
Toronto
Tampa
Baltimore


Rotation's a bit topheavy, but we've got dependable arms on paper in every slot assuming Penny rounds back into form, and we have Bowden, Buchholz, and probably Masterson, as well as Kris Johnson who might debut this year if needed. Those and Smoltz might be our Pawtucket rotation for about a month as Smoltz rehabs. THat Pawtucket rotation would probably be better than Baltimore's and maybe even than Toronto's. SICK.

On the other hand, since I've thrown a lot of IFS into the picture I have to give New York some credit here, IF Joba can stand a starter's workload, IF Wang comes back healthy, IF Sabathia transitions well into the AL East, that rotation is disgusting and pretty deep considering Cashman's usual "five and done" philosophy about building starting rotations.

And talking about young starters, James Shields is the single most underrated pitcher in all of major league baseball right now and is the Rays ace. A healthy year from Kazmir and a breakout year from Price will be a hard thing to match, but Kazmir's lack of innings burning power and Price's inexperience, combined with Tampa's lack of reliable alternates, downgrades them a little. If Toronto was any healthier they might be able to give Tampa a run with Halladay, Marcum, McGowan, and Litsch against Shields, Garza, Kazmir and Price, but with Marcum and McGowan questionmarks on health you really just can't give it to them. Perhaps I'm biased but I'd still take Beckett, Lester, Daisuke, and Penny over that lot on paper.

Ranking rotations:

New York
Boston
Tampa
Toronto
Baltimore

As for the offense -- we didn't improve it but it didn't really need it. The only team that outscored us in the AL last year was Texas. Our offense will really depend on what we get from Youkilis, Ortiz, Varitek and Ellsbury but since 3 of those 4 struggled in 08 I see no reason we can't repeat the 08 numbers next year. The question is if Burrell on the Rays and Teixeira/Swisher on NYY are enough to allow those two teams to play catch-up to us.

While the Yankees added Teixeira, they did it to replace Giambi who had a bit of a breakout year in his final season in the Bronx. You take Giambi's runs out of their run total before adding Teixeira's. Similar for Swisher and Abreu since I presmue Dirty 30 will be starting in the outfield. Does the prodiction of those two, less that of their predecessors, equal the 60 runs or so needed to catch Boston's offense? I'm not so sure.

Another thing I'm not so sure on is whether Yankee offense is even better than Tampa. Burrell was a steal for TB and BJ Upton may have found that 30 home run stroke we all know he's capable of with his performance in the playoffs. Add that to Carlos Pena, Crawford, Longoria, Navarro, et. al. and that is a very, very good lineup that can improve quite a bit just by letting its players mature in place. That plus the addition of a very good power DH makes the Rays a serious offensive threat.

Rating the lineups:

Boston
Tampa
New York
Baltimore
Toronto

[gman5431]

I still don't understand how people could be so surprised by the Rays for them to be the biggest surprise. Maybe people pay less attention to young players and reliable projections than I think.

Yea, the Rays were definately a huge suprise last year. I dont think anyone picked them to be in the WS - therefore suprise.

G Man

[MagsMigs]

As much as I hate to say it, I'm not sure what the Sox have done to avoid a 3rd place finish behind the New York Blankchecks (first subtle jab in a while :rolleyes:) and Tampa Rays. I agree that Toronto will take a step back, possibly as far back as last place, given the improvement on the O's roster, not to mention what's to come with some sharp pitching prospects and one Matt Wieters (gosh how cool would it have been had Teixeira signed in Baltimore).

The Yanks' achilles heel is, of course, potential A-Rod distractions, but also their bullpen. There's always the possibility of the 9-figure guys not living up to expectations, but that's a possibility on any team. I still see them taking the division. If they're mediocre in May, it's because they're teasing Yankee-haters like they so often do. The Lakers do that sometimes in basketball.

Tampa Bay, along with riding the high from last year's amazing run, is a year older, has added another young stud to their young studly pitching staff, and are no longer intimidated by the BosYork YankSox (a term someone came up with a couple years ago to describe the outcome of AL All Star voting). Their biggest achilles heel is that the mirrored the 2006 Tigers last year, and the 07 Tigs took a step back, after thinking they were going to be contenders again. Seriously, last year was way too eerie for someone who followed both teams real close.

So yeah, I just don't see Boston, and their failure to sign Tex as division champs again. They would need full, productive seasons from Bay, Drew, and Lowell, Ortiz needs to be Ortiz again in the first full season of the post-Manny era. As good as Pedroia and Youk are, it's not enough to have those guys be the ones that carry you. I could be wrong.

New York 101-61
Tampa Bay 93-69 (WC)
Boston 91-71 (and will have the 3rd-best record in AL)
Baltimore 74-88
Toronto 72-90

[philkid3]

Yea, the Rays were definately a huge suprise last year. I dont think anyone picked them to be in the WS - therefore suprise.

G Man

A team projected by the most reliable system out there to win 90 games getting to the World Series should surprise no one. I sure wasn't.

[Zagi-CRO]

I have had mornings like this.

Rating the bullpens:

Boston
New Yok (can't rate them lower until Mariano is gone!)
Toronto
Tampa
Baltimore

Ranking rotations:

New York
Boston
Tampa
Toronto
Baltimore

Rating the lineups:

Boston
Tampa
New York
Baltimore
Toronto

You aplied a same methodology as mine :nod: - ranking rotation, lineup and bullpen.
I improved this aproach through the numbers... that's my CGP /computer-generated projection/.

[gman5431]

A team projected by the most reliable system out there to win 90 games getting to the World Series should surprise no one. I sure wasn't.

You werent suprised when a team that had never won 70 games in their history won 97 and beat a stacked Boston Team to reach the World Series. I guess if i told you i was Batman you wouldnt be suprised by that either. Either that or you have a time machine.

G Man

[Zagi-CRO]

You werent suprised when a team that had never won 70 games in their history won 97 and beat a stacked Boston Team to reach the World Series. I guess if i told you i was Batman you wouldnt be suprised by that either. Either that or you have a time machine.

G Man
I'm
Are you surprised?

http://imagecache2.allposters.com/IMAGES/54/039_1071.jpg

[philkid3]

You werent suprised when a team that had never won 70 games in their history won 97 and beat a stacked Boston Team to reach the World Series. I guess if i told you i was Batman you wouldnt be suprised by that either. Either that or you have a time machine.

G Man

Would you like a link to a thread where I argued that the Rays had very good shot at being a contender?

Again, as I said, the most reliable projection system had them winning 90 games. If it's right more than anyone else I've ever seen, what reason is there to be surprised? Especially when I actually understood the projections. I've long since learned not to base my expectencies for the next season on just how many games a team won the year before. Not when there's so much more information out there to look at.

I've also long since learned that not much is surprising.


Say. . . are you interested in going in to some gambling with me? :D

[gman5431]

Would you like a link to a thread where I argued that the Rays had very good shot at being a contender?

Again, as I said, the most reliable projection system had them winning 90 games. If it's right more than anyone else I've ever seen, what reason is there to be surprised? Especially when I actually understood the projections. I've long since learned not to base my expectencies for the next season on just how many games a team won the year before. Not when there's so much more information out there to look at.

I've also long since learned that not much is surprising.


Say. . . are you interested in going in to some gambling with me? :D

Yeah, sure.

G Man

[philkid3]

Yeah, sure.

G Man

Here's one example. (http://forum.myspace.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=messageboard.viewThread&groupID=106396202&page=12&EntryID=60701895&CategoryID=0&get=1&adTopicId=0&lastpagesent=11&Mytoken=1D8EE154-C629-4B24-9E1EF4264115342E34106514) Off the top of my head I know of one other I could try and find later.

[Imgran]

As much as I hate to say it, I'm not sure what the Sox have done to avoid a 3rd place finish behind the New York Blankchecks (first subtle jab in a while :rolleyes:) and Tampa Rays.

The presumption is that something needed to be done. Looking at Pythag the Red Sox had the best Pythagoeran W-L in MLB last year. The Rays won the division on the strength of severe bullpen smoke and mirrors. Will explain.

The Yankee rotation is the biggest challenge to Boston winning the division next year, not the Yankee lineup or the Rays rotation. Price is too young for me to believe he'll transition into the rotation in a starting role with no hiccups at all. Not to mention no young lefthanded power pitchers have ever done that in the history of MLB, so I don't buy the Price hype. I consider it not unlike the Joba Hype. And the offensive players the Yankees bought are replacing nearly equicalent players they let go.

The only piece that the Yankees have that might really put them over the top is Sabathia. And unless the Rays pull 3 quality relief pitchers out of their... farm system... next year they're very, very unlikely to repeat their 2008 success.


I agree that Toronto will take a step back, possibly as far back as last place, given the improvement on the O's roster, not to mention what's to come with some sharp pitching prospects and one Matt Wieters (gosh how cool would it have been had Teixeira signed in Baltimore).

Don't write the Jays off completely, Rios and Wells had off seasons and both were hit with the injury bug, if those two turn it around the Jays might very well make a run, at least back as far as their usual third place futility.

The Yanks' achilles heel is, of course, potential A-Rod distractions, but also their bullpen. There's always the possibility of the 9-figure guys not living up to expectations, but that's a possibility on any team. I still see them taking the division. If they're mediocre in May, it's because they're teasing Yankee-haters like they so often do. The Lakers do that sometimes in basketball.

The Yankees will be a division contender certainly unless something serious happens to a key player such as Mariano Rivera. I don't think the A-Rod discussion is going to go much of anywhere unless A-Rod comes out of the gate weakly.

If Joba is not in the pen then the Yankees have a depth issue, but they've got enough middle-tier relief prospects that they should be able to mix and match until someone sands up and takes those jobs.

Tampa Bay, along with riding the high from last year's amazing run, is a year older, has added another young stud to their young studly pitching staff, and are no longer intimidated by the BosYork YankSox (a term someone came up with a couple years ago to describe the outcome of AL All Star voting). Their biggest achilles heel is that the mirrored the 2006 Tigers last year, and the 07 Tigs took a step back, after thinking they were going to be contenders again. Seriously, last year was way too eerie for someone who followed both teams real close.

The real issue with the Rays is that they depended far too much on a couple of pretty mediocre relief pitchers. JP Howell and Grant Balfour had fluke seasons for TB that aren't particularly likely to be repeated. They lost in the World Series partly because the Red Sox exposed and exhausted Howell and Balfour during the ALCS. (which is why Price was the one who closed out Game 7).

So The Rays have a legitimate chance to be a 90 win team again this year on the strength of their rotation and lineup but without a reinforced pen I really don't see where they're going to get the mojo they had in the start of the year when they lucked their way into several key victories to get the train rolling. In that sense, yes they very much are mirroring said Tigers.

yeah, I just don't see Boston, and their failure to sign Tex as division champs again. They would need full, productive seasons from Bay, Drew, and Lowell, Ortiz needs to be Ortiz again in the first full season of the post-Manny era. As good as Pedroia and Youk are, it's not enough to have those guys be the ones that carry you. I could be wrong.


In all honesty I think you are. For one thing the Red Sox made some serious improvement to their bullpen, picking up Ramon Ramirez and Takashi Saito, two talented late-inning arms. You're also going around presming monster seasons for all members of the big 3 contending AL East teams not wearing Boston Red Sox unis. fair treatment for the Sox players please.

Specifically the Yankees are going to have a serious difficulty turning all their contracts into a 9 man lineup, especially if Posada runs into difficulties again behind the plate. Having to put a Whiffy McNobat catcher at the bottom of that lineup is going to really blunt any lineup advantage that they get over the Sox who foolishly clung onto Varitek for too long this year.

Also, the Rays are probably going to spend a lot of 2008 playing another stimulating game of Who's My Right Fielder and Kazmir is looking more and more like he's going to wind up paying for the abuse they heaped on him in earlier seasons when he was the sole hope of the franchise.

[MagsMigs]

The presumption is that something needed to be done. Looking at Pythag the Red Sox had the best Pythagoeran W-L in MLB last year. The Rays won the division on the strength of severe bullpen smoke and mirrors. Will explain.

The Yankee rotation is the biggest challenge to Boston winning the division next year, not the Yankee lineup or the Rays rotation. Price is too young for me to believe he'll transition into the rotation in a starting role with no hiccups at all. Not to mention no young lefthanded power pitchers have ever done that in the history of MLB, so I don't buy the Price hype. I consider it not unlike the Joba Hype. And the offensive players the Yankees bought are replacing nearly equicalent players they let go.

The only piece that the Yankees have that might really put them over the top is Sabathia. And unless the Rays pull 3 quality relief pitchers out of their... farm system... next year they're very, very unlikely to repeat their 2008 success.



Don't write the Jays off completely, Rios and Wells had off seasons and both were hit with the injury bug, if those two turn it around the Jays might very well make a run, at least back as far as their usual third place futility.


The Yankees will be a division contender certainly unless something serious happens to a key player such as Mariano Rivera. I don't think the A-Rod discussion is going to go much of anywhere unless A-Rod comes out of the gate weakly.

If Joba is not in the pen then the Yankees have a depth issue, but they've got enough middle-tier relief prospects that they should be able to mix and match until someone sands up and takes those jobs.



The real issue with the Rays is that they depended far too much on a couple of pretty mediocre relief pitchers. JP Howell and Grant Balfour had fluke seasons for TB that aren't particularly likely to be repeated. They lost in the World Series partly because the Red Sox exposed and exhausted Howell and Balfour during the ALCS. (which is why Price was the one who closed out Game 7).

So The Rays have a legitimate chance to be a 90 win team again this year on the strength of their rotation and lineup but without a reinforced pen I really don't see where they're going to get the mojo they had in the start of the year when they lucked their way into several key victories to get the train rolling. In that sense, yes they very much are mirroring said Tigers.



In all honesty I think you are. For one thing the Red Sox made some serious improvement to their bullpen, picking up Ramon Ramirez and Takashi Saito, two talented late-inning arms. You're also going around presming monster seasons for all members of the big 3 contending AL East teams not wearing Boston Red Sox unis. fair treatment for the Sox players please.

Specifically the Yankees are going to have a serious difficulty turning all their contracts into a 9 man lineup, especially if Posada runs into difficulties again behind the plate. Having to put a Whiffy McNobat catcher at the bottom of that lineup is going to really blunt any lineup advantage that they get over the Sox who foolishly clung onto Varitek for too long this year.

Also, the Rays are probably going to spend a lot of 2008 playing another stimulating game of Who's My Right Fielder and Kazmir is looking more and more like he's going to wind up paying for the abuse they heaped on him in earlier seasons when he was the sole hope of the franchise.

I didn't realize picking someone to win 91 games was considered unfair treatment. I started my entire post with "as much as I hate to say it...", 1) because I can't stand the way the Yankees do business, and therefore root against their success season in and season out, and 2) because I have backed the Sox since 2003, so the prediction was reluctant. Please don't take my reasonings the wrong way. First, there are plenty of Sox-haters out there with plenty of venom to spew, while I'm simply giving my realistic expectations. Second, I'm giving them 91 wins, third place in the toughest division in baseball, and better records than the other two division winners. Harsh, I know. Especially coming from a non-Boston reisdent, non-sportswriter like myself.

Also, if "nothing needed to be done", Sox Nation would have simply shrugged off missing out on Teixeira instead of banging their heads on their desk upon hearing the news and ragging on about the cheapness of your GM/owner.

You don't have to buy the Price hype. I also didn't write a disclaimer that their successful followup to 97 wins hinges on Price going 18-6, 2.54, 177. They won 97 without him, they can probably win 93 with him. They won 97 with a platoon in right, they can probably win 93 with a platoon in right. Maybe even 93.5 if one of those guys' name is Pat Burrell. As far as the bullpen, no need to overanalyze. They'll do as well as the starters allow them to do. Most likely. Relievers are meant to have the ability to get guys out, just fewer at a time. Ergo, the starters consistently go 6 or 7 innings, the bullpen is not overworked, and JP Howell and Grant Balfour don't need a fluke season, they just need to be solid. Or were you implying that them being solid was a fluke? Nitpicking?

The Yankees will do well for no other reason than I don't want them to. And at least two of the guys they got are more than just dollar signs. They are twentysomethings with best-at-their-position potential. That's, um, pretty darn good. That doesn't strike me as equivalent to those their replacing. I'm predicting Tex and CC to put up Tex and CC numbers. A-Rod to put up A-Rod numbers. Akinori Iwamura to put up Akinori Iwamura numbers. So where's the monster seasons I'm predicting? Did I get drunk and predict .308/33/87 for Matt Joyce?

I really don't think my assessment (which, again, separates the Rays and Sox by TWO GAMES) was unfounded. I found it more conservative than anything. If Beantown wants to thwart my predictions, go right ahead. I'm glad the Sox picked up bullpen arms. I hope it improves their late-inning woes. I hope Ortiz becomes Ortiz again. I hope Lester eventually becomes Ace-material, because I love that guy. I hope Lars Anderson is the real deal. I hope the difference between Manny and Jason Bay (for a full season now) isn't as gaudy as it sounds.

And I hope a team whose highest paid player is J.D. Drew can win 91 games.

[otis89]

Zagi, are you going to do any Season Previews for the NL divisions?

[Zagi-CRO]

Zagi, are you going to do any Season Previews for the NL divisions?

Yes, I do.... at this moment I'm doing it for the NL East.

[Imgran]

I didn't realize picking someone to win 91 games was considered unfair treatment. I started my entire post with "as much as I hate to say it...", 1) because I can't stand the way the Yankees do business, and therefore root against their success season in and season out, and 2) because I have backed the Sox since 2003, so the prediction was reluctant. Please don't take my reasonings the wrong way. First, there are plenty of Sox-haters out there with plenty of venom to spew, while I'm simply giving my realistic expectations. Second, I'm giving them 91 wins, third place in the toughest division in baseball, and better records than the other two division winners. Harsh, I know. Especially coming from a non-Boston reisdent, non-sportswriter like myself.

OK, that's pretty reasonable, but 91 wins would be the lowest total the Sox had achieved this decade outside of their 2006 collapse so you're basically calling for this team to not perform up to the level of, say, the 2002 squad when quite honestly, our 2007 and forward squad is better than our 2004 model. We didn't exactly spend our offseason getting worse after all.

Also, if "nothing needed to be done", Sox Nation would have simply shrugged off missing out on Teixeira instead of banging their heads on their desk upon hearing the news and ragging on about the cheapness of your GM/owner.

Quite honestly, Teixeira was never coming to Boston. We already had Ortiz, Youkilis and Lowell under contract. In fantasy land sure, you trade Lowell, but that doesn't happen to quality veterans in real baseball.

People who screamed over Teixeira are the kind of big-name-seeking, shallow, short-sighted folks that make me glad that teams don't make their decision by fan vote.

You don't have to buy the Price hype. I also didn't write a disclaimer that their successful followup to 97 wins hinges on Price going 18-6, 2.54, 177. They won 97 without him, they can probably win 93 with him. They won 97 with a platoon in right, they can probably win 93 with a platoon in right. Maybe even 93.5 if one of those guys' name is Pat Burrell.

Kinda funny how Yankee improvements take wins from the Sox, but not, ever, from the Rays.

As far as the bullpen, no need to overanalyze. They'll do as well as the starters allow them to do. Most likely. Relievers are meant to have the ability to get guys out, just fewer at a time. Ergo, the starters consistently go 6 or 7 innings, the bullpen is not overworked, and JP Howell and Grant Balfour don't need a fluke season, they just need to be solid. Or were you implying that them being solid was a fluke? Nitpicking?

The point you're missing here is that you also have to assemble a cadre of pitchers that reasonably project to be solid. Middle relief is a crapshoot but that doesn't mean there's no odds. The bullpen is perfectly capable of sucking even in the presence of a decent rotation. Happened to the Mets a couple times pretty recently. Also happened to Boston. The reason bullpens suck is not always because the rotation exposes them. And sometimes it can even work the other way around, and a manager needs to overwork his rotation because he doesn't trust his pen. I think that's part of what happened to Kazmir.

In the case of those two pitchers who had never been solid in their careers before, I was indeed implying a certain level of flukishness. The Rays rotation is good, but ut isn't unprecedentedly good, and Balfour in particular has faltered behind good rotations before -- remember, he was a Twins reject. As for Howell, he might be more legitimate than I'm giving him credit for -- I doubt it, but he might. He, at least, can give a reason for his success -- a transition from rotation to bullpen.

The Yankees will do well for no other reason than I don't want them to.

Thanks for the logical, rational statistical analysis.

And at least two of the guys they got are more than just dollar signs. They are twentysomethings with best-at-their-position potential. That's, um, pretty darn good.

And they replaced a 20 game winner and a guy who hit 35 or so homers. Swisher also replaced Abreu, who went 20-20 this year. It's not quite a wash, but the net gain isn't that great when you look at who left.

That doesn't strike me as equivalent to those their replacing.

Not in an average year, but Abreu, Mussina, and Giambi didn't have average years last year, and it's improvement over last year that matters here.

If you make the assumption that Giambi was a first baseman then he led all first basemen in homers last year and Mussina was second in the league behind Cliff Lee in wins. Replacing that with "best in the league" is nice, but have you gained much over what they gave you last year? After all, what you're telling me is that the Yankees have improved over last year's Yankees, not over the overall talent level (which probably did improve) of the Yankee team.

I'm predicting Tex and CC to put up Tex and CC numbers. A-Rod to put up A-Rod numbers. Akinori Iwamura to put up Akinori Iwamura numbers. So where's the monster seasons I'm predicting? Did I get drunk and predict .308/33/87 for Matt Joyce?

Poor wording on my point, but if I asked you to predict the Red Sox I hope I wouldn't hear a litany of Ortiz's injury, Lowell's injury, Youkilis regressing to 2007 levels, etc. For the most part the Sox played at less than their top level last year and still made the playoffs.

I really don't think my assessment (which, again, separates the Rays and Sox by TWO GAMES) was unfounded. I found it more conservative than anything. If Beantown wants to thwart my predictions, go right ahead. I'm glad the Sox picked up bullpen arms. I hope it improves their late-inning woes. I hope Ortiz becomes Ortiz again. I hope Lester eventually becomes Ace-material, because I love that guy. I hope Lars Anderson is the real deal. I hope the difference between Manny and Jason Bay (for a full season now) isn't as gaudy as it sounds.

And I hope a team whose highest paid player is J.D. Drew can win 91 games.

And I could assemble a similar litany for either of the other members of the triad, so please don't make it sound like any of these issues are unique to Boston.

And seriously, tell me where salary enters into the discussion of actual performance. So JD is overpaid. It's justified: good right fielders are surprisingly hard to come by just now. Since the Yankees let Abreu walk Drew's now easily the best RF of the triad. Not even a heck of a lot of competition (Who IS the Yankee RF now? Nady? Swisher?). Drew has also come through with a number of big hits in the playoffs, and carried the team through Ortiz' DL stint this year. Abreu can't claim that, and so far from competing with Drew, Gross' poor jump on the line drive hit over his head was responsible for Boston's win in Game 6 of the ALCS last year.

[MagsMigs]

OK, that's pretty reasonable, but 91 wins would be the lowest total the Sox had achieved this decade outside of their 2006 collapse so you're basically calling for this team to not perform up to the level of, say, the 2002 squad when quite honestly, our 2007 and forward squad is better than our 2004 model. We didn't exactly spend our offseason getting worse after all.

Chock it up as "pessimism". I'm a year removed from my beloved Tigers being AL pennant favorites, only to see them fall flat on their face a week into the season all the way through the final game. When they were bad, I rooted for the Sawx and the Cubs on the side. I'm also giving the Cubbies ~91 wins, only that's good enough to claim a barren division like the NLC. I've learned not to become too slappy with teams I tend to favor. (and yes, 2003 sucked for me)

Also, my infinite wisdom of the fundamentals of baseball tells me that Manny Ramirez is a good player.


Quite honestly, Teixeira was never coming to Boston. We already had Ortiz, Youkilis and Lowell under contract. In fantasy land sure, you trade Lowell, but that doesn't happen to quality veterans in real baseball.

People who screamed over Teixeira are the kind of big-name-seeking, shallow, short-sighted folks that make me glad that teams don't make their decision by fan vote.

That is a good point. The Teixeira/Boston affair/outrage was primarily media & fan generated. But, how much easier would it be to cope in the post-Manny era with the addition of a player [close to] his caliber?


Kinda funny how Yankee improvements take wins from the Sox, but not, ever, from the Rays.

Ever? This is the first season in the history of the universe that the Rays are entering the season coming off a successful one. Or am I not the first talking head to favor the Rays over the Sox? Maybe there's a reason why I'm relegated to just an online forum as opposed to having my own column.

Oh, and by the way, I took away 4 wins apiece from the Sox AND Rays. My infinite wisdom of mathematics tells me that I gave the two equal treatment. Unless I'm grossly underestimating the addition of John Smoltz.


The point you're missing here is that you also have to assemble a cadre of pitchers that reasonably project to be solid. Middle relief is a crapshoot but that doesn't mean there's no odds. The bullpen is perfectly capable of sucking even in the presence of a decent rotation. Happened to the Mets a couple times pretty recently. Also happened to Boston. The reason bullpens suck is not always because the rotation exposes them. And sometimes it can even work the other way around, and a manager needs to overwork his rotation because he doesn't trust his pen. I think that's part of what happened to Kazmir.

Okay, yeah, nothing is absolute. Fine. If you want to grasp at straws, go right ahead. I'm gonna stick with the "parallel" principle because it is as good an intangible as any. I'm not Steve Phillips, for crying out loud. I spend too much time on here as it is. I'm not going to spend my time overanalyzing Tampa Bay's bullpen when I have a family, a day job, and an evening social life.


In the case of those two pitchers who had never been solid in their careers before, I was indeed implying a certain level of flukishness. The Rays rotation is good, but ut isn't unprecedentedly good, and Balfour in particular has faltered behind good rotations before -- remember, he was a Twins reject. As for Howell, he might be more legitimate than I'm giving him credit for -- I doubt it, but he might. He, at least, can give a reason for his success -- a transition from rotation to bullpen.

*courteously nods in agreement*


Thanks for the logical, rational statistical analysis.

If you knew me, logical & rational would be right on. It's the curse of me. I'm the Murphy's Law of sports fans.


And they replaced a 20 game winner and a guy who hit 35 or so homers. Swisher also replaced Abreu, who went 20-20 this year. It's not quite a wash, but the net gain isn't that great when you look at who left.

You're continually defending a correlation between past-their-prime Mussina/Giambi and in-their-prime Sabathia/Teixeira, and you're sarcastically calling me logical & rational?


Not in an average year, but Abreu, Mussina, and Giambi didn't have average years last year, and it's improvement over last year that matters here.

Yes, it is improvement that matters. See, we can agree!


If you make the assumption that Giambi was a first baseman then he led all first basemen in homers last year and Mussina was second in the league behind Cliff Lee in wins. Replacing that with "best in the league" is nice, but have you gained much over what they gave you last year? After all, what you're telling me is that the Yankees have improved over last year's Yankees, not over the overall talent level (which probably did improve) of the Yankee team.

Cliff Lee dominated. Mussina was merely good. The win column does nothing. Sabathia dominated as well. Ergo, much is gained. About the same amount as gained by replacing a non-fielding, non-average, past-his-prime Giambi with a gold-glove, switch-hitting, average-plus-power, many-good-years-ahead-of-him-barring-injury Teixeira.

What else is there to improve after talent to warrant a predicted improvement? Jose Molina's kid's grades in school?


Poor wording on my point, but if I asked you to predict the Red Sox I hope I wouldn't hear a litany of Ortiz's injury, Lowell's injury, Youkilis regressing to 2007 levels, etc. For the most part the Sox played at less than their top level last year and still made the playoffs.

And I could assemble a similar litany for either of the other members of the triad, so please don't make it sound like any of these issues are unique to Boston.

Are you really this badly shrugging off being Manny-less? Tampa lost Eric Hinske and Cliff Floyd, and are young and constantly improving. The Yankees replenished what they lost, and then some, and are greedy with the financial means. I probably couldn't, at this point in time, exactly interview to be a Sox insider for the Boston Globe and start Monday, but Manny's void seems like a gaping hole that is masked by the three-month success last year where adrenaline was so obvious a factor, it practically had a face. Again. Good for you guys. More power to you for that. Let's see you do it again over 7 months and 162 games.

Go ahead and assemble your litanies. I'll use your rationale against you in defense of the Rays (not even being a Rays apologetic to begin with), and we'll talk in circles until the season has completely played out, because that's really the only thing that will settle this.

Spoiler Alert: I won't be dead on with either team's win totals.


And seriously, tell me where salary enters into the discussion of actual performance. So JD is overpaid. It's justified: good right fielders are surprisingly hard to come by just now. Since the Yankees let Abreu walk Drew's now easily the best RF of the triad. Not even a heck of a lot of competition (Who IS the Yankee RF now? Nady? Swisher?). Drew has also come through with a number of big hits in the playoffs, and carried the team through Ortiz' DL stint this year. Abreu can't claim that, and so far from competing with Drew, Gross' poor jump on the line drive hit over his head was responsible for Boston's win in Game 6 of the ALCS last year.

My condolences to the RF woes of the Yanks and Rays. I'd say more, but I'm exhausted.

*continues to courteously nod*

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