What was the greatest season ever for a 3Bman?

[SavoyBG]

What was the greatest season ever for a 3Bman?

1884 Ezra Sutton

1887 Arlie Latham

1890 Denny Lyons

1899 John McGraw

1901 Jimmy Collins

1912 Home Run Baker

1912 Heinie Zimmerman

1917 Heinie Groh

1930 Pie Traynor

1930 Fred Lindstrom

1941 Stan Hack

1953 Eddie Mathews

1953 Al Rosen

1960 Ken Boyer

1964 Ron Santo

1964 Brooks Robinson

1966 Richie Allen

1969 Harmon Killebrew

1969 Sal Bando

1971 Joe Torre

1980 George Brett

1981 Mike Schmidt

1987 Wade Boggs

1989 Howard Johnson

1991 Terry Pendleton

1994 Matt Williams

1996 Ken Caminitti

1999 Chipper Jones

2004 Adrian Beltre

2004 Scott Rolen

[gman5431]

81 Michael Jack

G Man

[leecemark]

--Agreed. Best hitting season by a 3B and he was amoung the elite with the glove too. Pretty good baserunner for his position too (good for any).

[dgarza]

I'm pretty sure Mel Ott 1938 is going to make my Top 10.

[OleMissCub]

Schmidt in 81 seems the obvious choice. Though, Brett had one hell of a season in 80.

Schmidt easily though.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

I just can't vote for "short" seasons. There are just too many unknowns. Schmidt hit 23 points higher in '81 than in any other season. It's his only .300 seasson. It's the same for Brett. Yes, his .390 BA is outstanding but he only played in 117 games. It's highly unlikely he would have hit .390 over a full season.

[brett]

I just can't vote for "short" seasons. There are just too many unknowns. Schmidt hit 23 points highers in '81 than in any other season. It's his only .300 seasson. It's the same for Brett. Yes, jis .390 BA is outstanding but he only played in 117 games. It's highly unlikely he would have hit .390 over a full season.

Actually, Brett's '85 season has a strong case as the best offensive "FULL" season by a third baseman. He also won a gold glove, but didn't deserve it, though in '80 he actually was a deserving gold glove candidate.

Matt's PCA system has Brett at about 18 wins above marginal level in both '80 and '85, and in '80 it would give him one of the best rate of wins per games played in history-similar to Ruth, Hornsby, Mantle's top seasons.

I don't like partial seasons either.

I was wondering about A-Rod '07, but the truth is that Brett '85 beats that pretty easily with relative stats, and considering that A-Rod is a below average fielder at third.

Schmidt '81 has to be the best per team game.

[gman5431]

I just can't vote for "short" seasons. There are just too many unknowns. Schmidt hit 23 points highers in '81 than in any other season. It's his only .300 seasson. It's the same for Brett. Yes, jis .390 BA is outstanding but he only played in 117 games. It's highly unlikely he would have hit .390 over a full season.

Interesting point that i agree with. So who did you vote for instead?

G Man

[SavoyBG]

Interesting point that i agree with. So who did you vote for instead?

G Man

If you don't like the short seasons I think that 1953 Rosen is the best season here.

[dgarza]

I was wondering about A-Rod '07, but the truth is that Brett '85 beats that pretty easily with relative stats, and considering that A-Rod is a below average fielder at third.

Actually, Rodriguez has turned his fielding aroung the last 2 years. In 2007, Rodriguez was an above average fielder. Add that to his above average bat (putting it lightly), and you've got a season that was better than any of Brett's seasons. Total package value, probably better than Schmidt in 81.

[brett]

Actually, Rodriguez has turned his fielding aroung the last 2 years. In 2007, Rodriguez was an above average fielder. Add that to his above average bat (putting it lightly), and you've got a season that was better than any of Brett's seasons. Total package value, probably better than Schmidt in 81.


When A-Rod had his OPS+ up to 190 late in the season, I would have agreed. He struggled mightily in the last month and dropped to 177. Brett had a 178 OPS+ in '85 for 155 games, while A-Rod was 177 for 158. A-Rod also stole 24 for 28, while Brett was 9-10, and Brett's relative OB% was 133 to 125 for A-Rod (OB% gets slightly undervalued in OPS+).

I would at least say that Brett had a better relative hitting season. He was a little above average fielder in '85, but every advanced metric I have seen shows A-Rod to have been at least slightly below average in every season since he moved to third base.

[KCGHOST]

I'll Take Brett in 1980.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Interesting point that i agree with. So who did you vote for instead?

G Man

I haven't decided yet.

[dgarza]

Without repeating players, a Top 10 :

1. David Wright, 2007
2. Ron Santo, 1964
3. Alex Rodriguez, 2007
4. Eddie Mathews, 1959
5. Dick Allen, 1964
6. Mike Schmidt, 1981
7. Adrian Beltre, 2004
8. Mel Ott, 1938
9. Ken Caminiti, 1996
10. Al Rosen, 1953

Some other Top 15-ish seasons unmentioned:
Darrell Evans, 1973
Gary Sheffield, 1992
Bobby Bonilla, 1989
Bill Bradley, 1903
Ken Keltner, 1948
Bob Elliott, 1947
Troy Glaus, 2000

[dgarza]

every advanced metric I have seen shows A-Rod to have been at least slightly below average in every season since he moved to third base.His FRAA in '07 & '08 is in the positive.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Without repeating players, a Top 10 :

1. David Wright, 2007
2. Ron Santo, 1964
3. Alex Rodriguez, 2007
4. Eddie Mathews, 1959
5. Dick Allen, 1964
6. Mike Schmidt, 1981
7. Adrian Beltre, 2004
8. Mel Ott, 1938
9. Ken Caminiti, 1996
10. Al Rosen, 1953


You have David Wright's 2007 season at #1? :faint:

[dgarza]

You have David Wright's 2007 season at #1? :faint:I was looking at this WARP scores. They are :faint:

[mwiggins]

9. Ken Caminiti, 1996


Even after he ADMITTED to juicing that year, and admitted how much it helped him, you still think it was one of the best 10 years ever, even without repeating players?

[brett]

I was looking at this WARP scores. They are :faint:


WARP III I'd guess. They give players from 1993 on about a 30% WARP III LQ boost over guys who played ten years earlier, despite the expansion in the 90s.

Anyway, Wright has a case.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

WARP III I'd guess. They give players from 1993 on about a 30% WARP III LQ boost over guys who played ten years earlier, despite the expansion in the 90s.

Anyway, Wright has a case.

That's one thing but how is Wright's '07 season better than A-Rod's '07 season? The AL is stronger then the NL by quite a bit. A-Rod had 39 win shares (leading the major leagues) while Wright had 34 win shares.

[brett]

That's one thing but how is Wright's '07 season better than A-Rod's '07 season? The AL is stronger then the NL by quite a bit.

They have Wright as a gold glove third baseman that year (+17 FRAA). A-Rod is a tad above average at +4. Doesn't sound like much but that 13 run difference is about 10% of their total value, plus Wright was 34-5 in steals. Again that's only about a 3 run edge on A-Rod.

so with defense and steals, they have Wright at about 16 runs better than A-Rod. Other than that ????

16 runs would be enough to make up about a 20 point difference in OPS+, which puts them close.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

They have Wright as a gold glove third baseman that year (+17 FRAA). A-Rod is a tad above average at +4. Doesn't sound like much but that 13 run difference is about 10% of their total value, plus Wright was 34-5 in steals. Again that's only about a 3 run edge on A-Rod.

so with defense and steals, they have Wright at about 16 runs better than A-Rod. Other than that ????

16 runs would be enough to make up about a 20 point difference in OPS+, which puts them close.

A-Rod was 24-4 in steals so the gap is not big.. Also, A-Rod out-homered Wright by 21 HRs. Wright closes the gap somewhat with 11 more doubles. They both had similar batting averages and OBP, however, A-Rod outslugged Wright by 99 points. I simply do not see defense making up that kind of gap on offense.

[dgarza]

Even after he ADMITTED to juicing that year, and admitted how much it helped him, you still think it was one of the best 10 years ever, even without repeating players?It doesn't matter to me, because I'm looking at WHAT he did only. To me, that is what looking at a "season" is about, mostly the numbers, because "season" is more impersonal. Now if we were talking about how good a "player" was, then ability, circumstances, and talent can come it the pitcure more so.

Even if he was "juiced," it was still a great year for him as a "juice man" because it was clearly his best year. So why weren't his other seasons nearly so good?

I have no problem listing him in my Top 10. After all, he was listed in the original poll by SavoyBG.

[SavoyBG]

It doesn't matter to me, because I'm looking at WHAT he did only. To me, that is what looking at a "season" is about, mostly the numbers, because "season" is more impersonal. Now if we were talking about how good a "player" was, then ability, circumstances, and talent can come it the pitcure more so.

Even if he was "juiced," it was still a great year for him as a "juice man" because it was clearly his best year. So why weren't his other seasons nearly so good?

I have no problem listing him in my Top 10. After all, he was listed in the original poll by SavoyBG.

A year or two ago I asked Bill James how he felt that steroids should effect the way that we rank players. At the time he said that we should ignore the steroids stuff and just rank the players where we felt they belonged based on what they did on the field. He said that we should let the people who are looking at the rankings decide for themselves if they want to penalize players who they know (or suspect) have done steroids. Not sure if he still feels this way.

[mwiggins]

It doesn't matter to me, because I'm looking at WHAT he did only. To me, that is what looking at a "season" is about, mostly the numbers, because "season" is more impersonal. Now if we were talking about how good a "player" was, then ability, circumstances, and talent can come it the pitcure more so.

Even if he was "juiced," it was still a great year for him as a "juice man" because it was clearly his best year. So why weren't his other seasons nearly so good?
I have no problem listing him in my Top 10. After all, he was listed in the original poll by SavoyBG.

Might have been maybe the fact that he was using steriods that season. At least that's how he explained why it was so much better than the rest of his seasons.

[dgarza]

They have Wright as a gold glove third baseman that year (+17 FRAA). A-Rod is a tad above average at +4. Doesn't sound like much but that 13 run difference is about 10% of their total value, You are right, that does not SOUND like much, but it actually is significant.

WARP1 - WARP2 - WARP3
Wright - 12.0 - 14.4 - 14.4
Rodrig - 11.9 - 13.8 - 13.8

They are close.
Please remember that even though I have Wright listed ahead of Rodriguez, it doesn't mean Wright is light years ahead of him. All these players had exceptional career years. Before I had finished my sifting through players, I was under the impression that I was going to have Alex Rodriguez as #1. Wright was a late inning surprise for me.

[dgarza]

Might have been maybe the fact that he was using steriods that season. An exact 1 year peak does not sound plausible to me. It's not like he was using pixie dust (although there has been no investigation on pixie dust) were he can just turn the effects on and off.

[brett]

An exact 1 year peak does not sound plausible to me. It's not like he was using pixie dust (although there has been no investigation on pixie dust) were he can just turn the effects on and off.


That's not true. Steroids keep you from getting torn down over the course of a season. Their main effect is anti-catabolic, or preventing the normal daily breakdown of muscle and giving a net result of muscle growth.

Also, testosterone is a powerful mood elevator (usually).

Ben Johnson said that the main thing about steroids was that they enabled him to train like crazy in the morning, and come back in the afternoon and train even harder.

[CTaka]

Going by Win Shares, here is how some of the often named seasons come out:

1953 Rosen 42
1964 Allen 41
1912 Baker 39
2007 ARod 39
1953 Mathews 39
2004 Rolen 38
1989 HoJo 38
1996 C*minniti 38
1980 Schmidt 37 (only had 30 in 1981)
2004 Beltre 37
1938 Ott 36
1964 Santo 36
1980 Brett 36
1992 Pendleton 35 (only had 27 in 1991)
2007 Wright 34
1899 McGraw 34
1964 Robinson 34
1969 Killebrew 34

I am not saying that Win Shares is the ultimate be-all/end-all stat. But I thought it would be worth looking at because the lack of playing time for Brett in 1980 and Schmidt in 1981 would be factored in. So based on this, the winner would be Al Rosen....and again Dick Allen is greatly underrated by many casual fans today.

[Murderers Row]

I voted for Chipper w/o thinking. Brett in 80.

[Murderers Row]

They have Wright as a gold glove third baseman that year (+17 FRAA). A-Rod is a tad above average at +4. Doesn't sound like much but that 13 run difference is about 10% of their total value, plus Wright was 34-5 in steals. Again that's only about a 3 run edge on A-Rod.

so with defense and steals, they have Wright at about 16 runs better than A-Rod. Other than that ????

16 runs would be enough to make up about a 20 point difference in OPS+, which puts them close.

I disagree. Depending on the weights you use, A-Rod was worth 66.4 runs, with a context adjustment, that comes out to 6.4 wins. Wright was worth 49 runs with a context adjustment, he comes out to 4.6 wins.(I use Palmer's weights because I have easy access, and they are pretty accurate)

SB's have a lot of different weights, but lets use Tango's which I believe is .19 for a SB, -.41 for a CS. A-Rod gets a boost of 2.9 runs and Wright gets a boost of 4.4 runs.

I use UZR for defense. Wright is awarded with 4.7 runs, A-Rod with -.2. They're win totals are now:

Wright: 5.87
A-Rod: 6.67

No need for a PADJ since they both play third.

A replacement level adjustment of 20 runs per 600 PAs won't do much for Wrights case, so I won't waste my time with the math.

[brett]

I disagree. Depending on the weights you use, A-Rod was worth 66.4 runs, with a context adjustment, that comes out to 6.4 wins. Wright was worth 49 runs with a context adjustment, he comes out to 4.6 wins.(I use Palmer's weights because I have easy access, and they are pretty accurate)

SB's have a lot of different weights, but lets use Tango's which I believe is .19 for a SB, -.41 for a CS. A-Rod gets a boost of 2.9 runs and Wright gets a boost of 4.4 runs.

I use UZR for defense. Wright is awarded with 4.7 runs, A-Rod with -.2. They're win totals are now:

Wright: 5.87
A-Rod: 6.67

No need for a PADJ since they both play third.

A replacement level adjustment of 20 runs per 600 PAs won't do much for Wrights case, so I won't waste my time with the math.

I do not prefer Wright's season. I am just trying to explain how WARP calculations give him the edge.

Obviously the difference is that BBPro gets Wright at +17 defensive runs above average and A-Rod +4, giving Wright a 13 run edge while you give him 4.8. The extra 8 runs would be about .75 wins.

Its also interesting that BBPro (and others) come up with higher scores above average than you get. Everything I have seen has both of them in line with about DOUBLE the wins above average that you are getting.

I wonder if they differ in that some systems consider a win to be turning 1 game, currently undecided into a win, while others consider a win to be actually taking away one loss and adding one win.

[Murderers Row]

I do not prefer Wright's season. I am just trying to explain how WARP calculations give him the edge.

Obviously the difference is that BBPro gets Wright at +17 defensive runs above average and A-Rod +4, giving Wright a 13 run edge while you give him 4.8. The extra 8 runs would be about .75 wins.

Its also interesting that BBPro (and others) come up with higher scores above average than you get. Everything I have seen has both of them in line with about DOUBLE the wins above average that you are getting.

I wonder if they differ in that some systems consider a win to be turning 1 game, currently undecided into a win, while others consider a win to be actually taking away one loss and adding one win.

That's because I didn't bother with the replacement adjustment since Wright wasn't going to pull ahead. Isn't WARP above average replacement? Usually, per 600 PA, a replacement level player will be worth -20 runs below average. A-Rod accumulated 708 PA's so you do 20/600*708. this comes out to 23.6 runs, or in other words 2.36 wins.

What other systems do you see giving them double as many wins as I do?