Also-Ran Pitchers, poll 3-C

[Paul Wendt]

Also-Ran Pitchers covers the losers in phase one of "Top 100 Pitchers". Here we are selecting the best of those also-rans in a series of polls something like the hundred pitchers polls. Please use the same criteria you do use or would use for the hundred pitchers.

That is the project or game. Frankly, my main purpose is to try out and demonstrate a system for projects like this. There will not be much discussion of the method initially but the pace will be faster than it would if ranking the also-rans were important. I will post polls without deadlines but the leaders might advance any time after 48 hours and ten votes.

Three pitchers inhabit rungs in the ladder. They are the winners of previous stage three polls.
1. Lon Warneke
2. Dolf Luque
3. Babe Adams


This poll 3-C features the also-rans from poll 3-B (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=84862) and the three winners from poll 2-E (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=85308). It is the fourth or fifth contest for everyone on the ballot; if there is no tie, three of them will pick up their third wins and take rungs four to six in the ladder.

add:
Bold marks the two winners, only two because there is a tie for ranks 3-4-5. (more information below (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showpost.php?p=1399643&postcount=9))
The poll remains open.

The ballot lists candidates and their major league debut years in alphabetical order.
Here they are in chronological order.
UPPERCASE names identify mainly-relief pitchers and UPPERCASE surnames identify intermediate careers.
'DT' and the player name are linked to player pages at BaseballProspectus and Baseball-Reference.

DT ("http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/hahnno01.php") : Noodles Hahn ("http://www.baseball-reference.com/h/hahnno01.shtml"), debut 1899
DT ("http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/quinnja01.php") : Jack Quinn ("http://www.baseball-reference.com/q/quinnja01.shtml"), 1909
DT ("http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/hardeme01.php") : Mel Harder ("http://www.baseball-reference.com/h/hardeme01.shtml"), 1928
DT ("http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/reynoal01.php") : Allie Reynolds ("http://www.baseball-reference.com/r/reynoal01.shtml"), 1942
DT ("http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/burdele01.php") : Lew Burdette ("http://www.baseball-reference.com/b/burdele01.shtml"), 1950
DT ("http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/cuellmi01.php") : Mike Cuellar ("http://www.baseball-reference.com/c/cuellmi01.shtml"), 1959
DT ("http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/stottme01.php") : Mel Stottlemyre ("http://www.baseball-reference.com/s/stottme01.shtml"), 1964
DT ("http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/violafr01.php") : Frank Viola ("http://www.baseball-reference.com/v/violafr01.shtml"), 1982
DT ("http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/rijojo01.php") : Jose Rijo ("http://www.baseball-reference.com/r/rijojo01.shtml"), 1984
DT ("http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/moyerja01.php") : Jamie Moyer ("http://www.baseball-reference.com/m/moyerja01.shtml"), 1986
DT ("http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/finlech01.php") : Chuck Finley ("http://www.baseball-reference.com/f/finlech01.shtml"), 1986
DT ("http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/appieke01.php") : Kevin Appier ("http://www.baseball-reference.com/a/appieke01.shtml"), 1989

Vote for 3 of 12

There will be three winners, or fewer in case of ties. The stage three field is now "large" because, in fact, there have been only three winners in two polls.

[Paul Wendt]

Stage One is complete. See below.

Stage Two - various, featuring leaders* from stage one, A to I, and a second dip from A to H

poll 2-A (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=83908) - still open but leaders have advanced to 3-A; the rest have continued in stage two (B E F)
poll 2-B (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=84369) - still open but leaders have advanced to 3-B; the rest have continued in stage two (E F)
poll 2-C (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=84603) - still open but leaders have advanced to poll 2-E
poll 2-D (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=85266) - poll open, 12-03
poll 2-E (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=85308) - still open but leaders have advanced to 3-C; the rest have continued in stage two (F)
poll 2-F (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=85799) - poll open, 12-24


Stage Three, runging the ladder in threes

poll 3-A (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=84285) - still open but leaders have been rung and the rest have continued in poll 3-B
poll 3-B (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=84862) - still open but leaders have been rung and the rest have continued in poll 3-C
poll 3-C (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=85796) - poll open, 12-21 (You are here.)


--
Stage One, a first pass through all the also-rans from "Top 100 Pitchers" phase one,
nine rounds

poll 1-A (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=83799) - still open but leaders* have advanced to poll 2-A
poll 1-B (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=83842) - still open but leaders* have advanced to poll 2-A
poll 1-C (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=83841) - still open but leaders* have advanced to poll 2-A
poll 1-D (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=83898) - still open but leaders* have advanced to poll 2-B
poll 1-E (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=84027) - still open but leaders* have advanced to poll 2-C
poll 1-F (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=84152) - still open but leaders* have advanced to poll 2-C
poll 1-G (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=84177) - still open but leaders* have advanced to poll 2-C
poll 1-H (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=84322) - still open but leaders* have advanced to poll 2-C
poll 1- I (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=85238) - still open but leaders have advanced to poll 2-F

[Paul Wendt]

>>
This poll 3-C features the also-rans from poll 3-B (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=84862) and the three winners from poll 2-E (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=85308). It is the fourth or fifth contest for everyone on the ballot; if there is no tie, three of them will pick up their third wins and take rungs four to six in the ladder.
<<

hint, hint

click, click, I have recently voted for three of them. Unless you stayed home during some nasty winter mix, you should have voted for two to six of them.

[bambambaseball]

Noodles Hahn
Frank Viola
Chuck Finley

Mel Harder would have had my vote if you wanted 4 instead of 3.

[Paul Wendt]

DERA* (net pitching-batting rate on ERA+ scale, 100=average)
132.2 Hahn

115.0 Rijo
113.4 Appier
111.7 Viola
109.4 Finley
109.3 Quinn
109.2 Stottlemyre

106.1 Harder
103.5 Reynolds
102.0 Moyer
97.5 Cuellar
95.0 Burdette

The pitching rate DERA by Clay Davenport (DT cards at baseballprospectus) uses a measure of team fielding responsibility that differs from official unearned runs. The batting rate by Paul Wendt uses OPS+ relative to an estimate of average pitcher batting, with AL pitchers under the DH (Appier & Finley) modeled as poor batters (Cuellar).


This chart shows the effect of batting on the net pitcher-batter rate. With this degree of approximation the same adjustments may be applied to ERA+ as the measure of pitching, if you prefer, rather than to DERA+, as above.

grade A: George Uhle (none on this ballot)

------ ------ +3.5 points


------ ------ +2.5 points


------ ------ +1.5 points on the ERA+ scale
Rijo
Stottlemyre
Burdette
------ ------ +0.5 points

Average Pitcher Batting, DERA* = DERA+

------ ------ -0.5 points

Reynolds
Quinn, Moyer
------ ------ -1.5 points on the ERA+ scale
Hahn, Viola


------ ------ -2.5 points
Harder
Cuellar
Appier, Finley - AL pitchers who didn't bat much
------ ------ -3.5 points

grade F: Bob Friend (none on this ballot)

[Paul Wendt]

Jack Quinn is the easy first choice even without any consideration for his exile in the minors. Quinn pitched more major league innings than the others, and probably more minor league innings too. In the majors he was very good, enough to rank fifth in this group by DERA*, now my favorite "simple" career rate statistic.

More specifically, Quinn is in a near tie for ranks 5-6-7 with Finley and Stottlemyre, pitched less and much less than he did. They clearly trail only Hahn, Rijo, Appier, and Viola in that order. Among those rate stars Rijo didn't pitch enough to earn consideration here. Harder and Finley pitched enough to crash the party, because they were good. Moyer was very good for a decade beginning in the late 1990s. So we have six-pack that trails Quinn overall.

right: Harder, Appier
left: Hahn, Viola, Finley, Moyer

By the way, "Similar Pitchers" names Rijo most similar pitcher to Kevin Appier thru age 29 and Finley most similar to Appier in the end. Please find a righty in place of Finley!

--
Reynolds, Burdette, and Cuellar were helped by their team fielding; relative to what they accomplished, helped so much that they don't belong here yet.

[Paul Wendt]

The ballot lists candidates and their major league debut years in alphabetical order.
Here they are in chronological order.
UPPERCASE names identify mainly-relief pitchers and UPPERCASE surnames identify intermediate careers.
'DT' and the player name are linked to player pages at BaseballProspectus and Baseball-Reference.

After filling five tiers of twenty from its 151 phase one winners, the neighboring "Top 100 Pitchers" project has reconsidered its also-rans and a few of the overlooked and it has nearly filled another five tiers of twenty.

How have these candidates fared? Jack Quinn and Allie Reynolds are in Tier 6 ('6') along with the trio that holds the top rungs in our ladder here (Warneke, Luque, Adams). Otherwise this ballot provides three from Tier 7, six from Tier 9, and one from Tier 10.

9 ; DT ("http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/hahnno01.php") : Noodles Hahn ("http://www.baseball-reference.com/h/hahnno01.shtml"), debut 1899
6 ; DT ("http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/quinnja01.php") : Jack Quinn ("http://www.baseball-reference.com/q/quinnja01.shtml"), 1909
9 ; DT ("http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/hardeme01.php") : Mel Harder ("http://www.baseball-reference.com/h/hardeme01.shtml"), 1928
6 ; DT ("http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/reynoal01.php") : Allie Reynolds ("http://www.baseball-reference.com/r/reynoal01.shtml"), 1942
9 ; DT ("http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/burdele01.php") : Lew Burdette ("http://www.baseball-reference.com/b/burdele01.shtml"), 1950
9 ; DT ("http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/cuellmi01.php") : Mike Cuellar ("http://www.baseball-reference.com/c/cuellmi01.shtml"), 1959
10; DT ("http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/stottme01.php") : Mel Stottlemyre ("http://www.baseball-reference.com/s/stottme01.shtml"), 1964
9 ; DT ("http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/violafr01.php") : Frank Viola ("http://www.baseball-reference.com/v/violafr01.shtml"), 1982
7 ; DT ("http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/rijojo01.php") : Jose Rijo ("http://www.baseball-reference.com/r/rijojo01.shtml"), 1984
7 ; DT ("http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/moyerja01.php") : Jamie Moyer ("http://www.baseball-reference.com/m/moyerja01.shtml"), 1986
9 ; DT ("http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/finlech01.php") : Chuck Finley ("http://www.baseball-reference.com/f/finlech01.shtml"), 1986
7 ; DT ("http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/appieke01.php") : Kevin Appier ("http://www.baseball-reference.com/a/appieke01.shtml"), 1989

These "vote for eight" and "vote for three" polls focus a little more attention on every candidate than do the vote for twenties next door. Does that make a difference?

Here is your chance to approve or to overturn some of the selections that "rode the tides" next door.

Certainly we will "overturn" the call among the four most recent pitchers, because Chuck Finley leads the field. Otherwise all is in doubt.

[Paul Wendt]

With ten votes this poll is now eligible for closure but there is no separation of the field such as so I will merely bump it today.

The field should be the most attractive of the also-rans except Lon Warneke, Dolf Luque, and Babe Adams who earned rungs on the ladder in polls 3-A and 3-B.

[Paul Wendt]

After 12 ballots cast and four weeks passed,
two more winners now inhabit high rungs of the ladder.

Noodles Hahn (6 votes)
Chuck Finley (6 votes)

Finley's performance is remarkable because he tallied only 1 vote in the previous poll 3-B, finishing tie for last in a field not much different from this one. I will list Hahn before Finley in the ladder reflecting that history.

We have only two winners because there is a tie for third to fifth.

4, Mike Cuellar, Jack Quinn, Frank Viola
3, Jamie Moyer
2, Mel Harder, Allie Reynolds, Jose Rijo
1, Kevin Appier, Lou Burdette, Mel Stottlemyre

This poll remains open but votes cast here will have no further influence because all of the also-rans remain in the pool at stage three.


1. Lon Warneke
2. Dolf Luque
3. Babe Adams (ranks 1-3 previously inhabited)
4. Noodles Hahn
4. Chuck Finley (two rungs determined in this poll)

-- stage three pool --
Mike Cuellar, Jack Quinn, Frank Viola
Jamie Moyer
Mel Harder, Allie Reynolds, Jose Rijo
Kevin Appier, Lou Burdette, Mel Stottlemyre


Leaders from polls 2-F (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=85799) (unresolved), then 2-D, will advance to stage three and contend for high rungs in the ladder.

[Paul Wendt]

In this forum, especially in the "Top 100 Pitchers" and "Also-Ran Pitchers" series, I have many times covered pitchers relying partly on some sabrmetrics or new statistics, recently including DERA.

Now I have posted a table that gives career data for 637 major league pitchers: DERA and other "new statistics" from DT cards, middle-aged ERA+ and OPS+, and more.
pitchers, edition 637 now available (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showpost.php?p=1400246&postcount=26)