BBF VC Progressive HoF Election: 1930 Final

[DoubleX]

Below is the final ballot for the 1930 VC players election. I'll give until next Tuesday for voting, provided we have a quorum by that time, consisting of at least 12 of the 16 VC members. 75% is required for election and voters may vote for as many players on the ballot as they like.

Please note that Some players are also eligible as contributors. If you feel a person's worthiness is not based primarily on his playing career, you should not vote for him here but vote for him in the contributors election. Basically, if you feel more than 50% of a person's Hall of Fame case is predicated on non-playing contributions, you should not vote for him here. It is also possible that a person can be independently worthy as a both a player and contributor, in that rare case, it may be appropriate to vote for him in both capacities.


Ballot
Tommy Bond
Jack Chesbro (special exemption)
Lave Cross
Candy Cummings
Mike Griffin
Clark Griffith
Charley Jones
Jim McCormick
Deacon McGuire
Ed McKean
Tip O'Neill
Jimmy Ryan
Mike Tiernan

[DoubleX]

I apologize, but I want to reiterate my case for Jimmy Ryan. With Duffy and Van Haltren, I'm still having a very hard time understanding how the line is against Ryan. He came one vote shy last time, and I believe at least voter may have been swayed to support Ryan:


Average of Top 5 OPS+ Seasons
Ryan: 148.4
Duffy: 139.2
Van Haltren: 135

Average of Top 10 OPS+ Seasons
Ryan: 134.5
Van Haltren: 132.3
Duffy: 129.3 - This includes his year in the Players League as well as two years where he had less than 300 ABs. Remove those three years, and 10 year peak average drops to 121.7

No. of OPS+ Seasons Above 140
Ryan: 4
Duffy: 2
Van Haltren: 0

Career OPS+
Ryan: 123
Duffy: 122
Van Haltren: 121

Plate Appearances
Ryan: 9106 - So Ryan had the highest OPS+ in the most playing time.
Van Haltren: 8979
Duffy: 7827

Runs Created
Ryan: 1341
Van Haltren: 1288
Duffy: 1228

Runs Created per Game
Duffy: 6.6
Ryan: 6.1
Van Haltren: 6.1

WARP3
Ryan: 84.5
Van Haltren: 82.2
Duffy: 76.4

EQA
Van Haltren: .285
Ryan: .280
Duffy: .275

EQR
Ryan: 1424
Van Haltren: 1375
Duffy: 1142

Career Hits
Van Hatlren: 2532
Ryan: 2502
Duffy: 2282

Career Doubles
Ryan: 451
Duffy: 325
Van Haltren: 285

Career Triples
Van Haltren: 161
Ryan: 157
Duffy: 119

Career Homeruns
Ryan: 118
Duffy: 106
Van Haltren: 69

Career RBI
Duffy: 1302
Ryan: 1093
Van Haltren: 1014

Career Stolen Bases
Van Haltren: 583
Duffy: 574
Ryan: 418

Career Games in CF
Van Haltren: 1372
Ryan: 956
Duffy: 676

Percentage of Total Games in CF
Van Haltren: 68%
Ryan: 47%
Duffy: 39%

Career Win Shares
Van Haltren: 344
Jimmy Ryan: 316
Hugh Duffy: 295

Peak Win Share Season
Jimmy Ryan: 34
Hugh Duffy: 33
Van Haltren: 30 - This was in the Players League. His highest non-PL season is 29.

Top 5 Win Shares
Hugh Duffy: 144
Jimmy Ryan: 135
George Van Haltren: 133 (drops to 126 if not counting a year in the PL)

Top 10 Win Shares
Hugh Duffy: 251
George Van Haltren: 243 (drops to 234 if not counting a year in the PL)
Jimmy Ryan: 222

It seems the only thing really going against Ryan is peak win shares (though that's going against Van Haltren as well), and personally, I'm continually dismayed about how much emphasis people have placed on Win Shares in this project. It should not be the be all and end all as it has been. So many other measures show Ryan as both the better peak and career performer, or at least on par with Duffy and Van Haltren. By simultaneously electing Duffy and Van Haltren, we definitively defined our standard in the OF as to that generation, and Ryan, as a peer as those players, with strong arguments for being at least on par with them, should be in as well.

Along this last point, I wanted to repost this snippet of the previous conversation:


Again, it's Ryan's per season average that kills things for me. Using Win Shares as a tool, it shows him remarkably below the other two. He had a comparable peak but not enough good seasons to add on the extra value that the other two managed via consistency.


Win Shares is just one of many tools, and most other tools show Ryan as being either on par or better than the other two, and that should count for something. Moreover, Win Shares are not that against Ryan that it should make such a difference as: 1) He has the highest peak season in Win Shares of the three players; 2) He is ahead of Van Haltren in 5-year peak Win Shares, and all three are pretty close together in 5-year peak; and 3) He is ahead of Duffy in career win shares. The only area where he is somewhat lacking, in all the many measures that have been posted here, is 10 year peak Win Shares. But that's just one measure among many, and I don't see how that can make the difference, and to put so much weight in that above all other information strikes me as arbitrary.

Further, Ryan has a fairly commanding lead in peak OPS+, is slightly ahead in career OPS+ despite more plate appearances (fairly significantly more than Duffy), and measures like RC, EQA, EQR, WARP2, WARP3, and raw statistics, overall paint him him in a slightly better light than the other two (particularly Duffy).

[jjpm74]

Jack Chesbro
Lave Cross
Clark Griffith
Charley Jones
Deacon McGuire
Jimmy Ryan

[PVNICK]

Jimmy Ryan
I think Griffith belongs in the hall but since I did not vote for him as a player I can't very well do so now. I'll put him in as a contributor.

[bambambaseball]

Tommy Bond
Lave Cross
Candy Cummings
Clark Griffith
Charley Jones
Jim McCormick
Deacon McGuire
Ed McKean
Jimmy Ryan
Mike Tiernan

[philkid3]

Jimmy Ryan
Mike Tiernan

[dgarza]

Tommy Bond
Charley Jones
Jim McCormick
Ed McKean
Tip O'Neill
Jimmy Ryan
Mike Tiernan

[Cowtipper]

Tommy Bond
Jack Chesbro
Candy Cummings
Clark Griffith
Charley Jones
Jim McCormick
Jimmy Ryan

[jalbright]

I'm not really thrilled with any of the possible candidates, but I feel constrained to vote for at least one (what's the purpose of a VC otherwise?). That being the case and the best of this crop in my opinion being Jimmy Ryan, he's the one (and only) to get my vote this time.

[leecemark]

Clark Griffith

[philkid3]

If I'm not mistaken, five more votes for Ryan puts him in.

[KCGHOST]

Clark Griffith
Jimmy Ryan
Mike Tiernan

[DoubleX]

If I'm not mistaken, five more votes for Ryan puts him in.

My vote will put him at 8. If we get our minimum quorum of 12, he'll 9. If all 16 vote, he'll need 12.

Here's my ballot:

Candy Cummings - I'll consider removing him from the players ballot entirely next time, though I think he fits.

Clark Griffith - It's possible he can be elected as both a player and a contributor, and I don't think it would be much of a problem.

Jim McCormick - I'm on the line with him, but he gets my vote this time.

Ed McKean - I'm still very impressive by his offensive production at SS.

Jimmy Ryan - See my above post.

Mike Tiernan - Like Ryan, I think our OF standards encompass him.

[Freakshow]

We elected Herman Long last time. Newbies Cross and Griffith come on.

Lave Cross
Mike Griffin
Clark Griffith
Charley Jones
Jim McCormick
Jimmy Ryan
Mike Tiernan

[Paul Wendt]

FS, no support for Clark Griffith as a player?

Lave Cross
Mike Griffin
Clark Griffith
Charley Jones
Deacon McGuire
Jimmy Ryan

No, I didn't vote for Deacon McGuire in the annual election, nordidyou!

Should Jack Chesbro be on the ballot?

[Freakshow]

FS, no support for Clark Griffith as a player?
Whoops! Thanks for the catch. I added him to my ballot.

[DoubleX]

Crud, I forgot Jack Chesbro has a special exemption to be on the final ballot. I've added him, and feel free to amend your ballots if you want to vote for him. For some reason, Chesbro is just very forgettable in all this.

[jjpm74]

I added Lave Cross and Jack Chesbro to my ballot.

[Captain Cold Nose]

Jack Chesbro
Lave Cross
Clark Griffith
Jimmy Ryan

[philkid3]

My vote will put him at 8. If we get our minimum quorum of 12, he'll 9. If all 16 vote, he'll need 12.

I was actually including (and assuming) your vote when I posted that.

And I believe he now needs only one more vote (or for at least one person of the sixteen to not show up) to get in.

I think I feel safe in saying: congratulations, Jimmy Ryan!

[DoubleX]

I believe we've already reached a quorum, but there still plenty of time for the last four votes to come in. Assuming all four vote, Ryan would indeed need just one more.

The only other player with a chance at this point is Clark Griffith. He currently has 8 votes. For him to make it, he would have to be named on all four final ballots.

[BlueBlood]

Candy Cummings
Jim McCormick

I think they're comparable to some pitchers we've inducted, certainly better than Welch which I can take as kind of the low mark. Still not voting for Ryan as I see a bigger gap between him and his contemporaries, but again, that's just me.

Edit: Third member of my ballot is Clark Griffith.

[DoubleX]

Still not voting for Ryan as I see a bigger gap between him and his contemporaries, but again, that's just me.

What happened to this?


Win Shares per 162. Truthfully though, I've been moving towards the "yes" on Ryan category after looking at some of the other bits of analysis in this thread...I'll probably vote for him in the next VC election.

I thought we went through this before. I've posted many measures, and the only place where Ryan could be called deficient is in peak win shares (though Van Haltren is as well). In practically every other measure, Ryan is on par or exceeds his elected contemporaries, Van Haltren and Duffy. I just don't get putting so much emphasis on one statistic and ignore how favorably all the others portray Ryan.

[jjpm74]

Candy Cummings
Jim McCormick

I think they're comparable to some pitchers we've inducted, certainly better than Welch which I can take as kind of the low mark.

Comparable but below our current standard. Mickey Welch was elected via the VC which makes McCormick stand out as a big reach. Cummings is borderline when factoring in his innovation as a player and is still below our standard set for pitchers.


Still not voting for Ryan as I see a bigger gap between him and his contemporaries, but again, that's just me.

Ryan, unlike the 2 you voted for is comparable to several players that were elected to our hall via the standard elections. I'm not sure why you're (along with several others) being so lenient with pitchers and so stingy with players who fielded other positions. Is it the gaudy numbers put up by these pitchers in extremely weak leagues that makes all these early pitchers appealing to so many people?

Edit: DoubleX--Please note that I edited my ballot and removed Cummings.

[AG2004]

My ballot:

Candy Cummings
Clark Griffith
Jimmy Ryan

If it weren't for his invention of the curve, Cummings wouldn't have made this list.

[DoubleX]

Might as well end the voting now as we have our quorum, and even though there are still two members left to vote, it won't make a difference as to the outcome.

Right now, with 14 members having voted, 11 votes are needed to elect a player. If all 16 members vote, 12 votes would be needed for election.

Jimmy Ryan already has 12 votes, so he's guaranteed election even if the last two members were to not vote for him.

The next highest is Clark Griffith with 9 votes, and there is no way that he or any other player can reach the 75% threshold at this point.

Here are the full results at this point:

Jimmy Ryan - 12 votes (85.71%)

Clark Griffith - 9 votes (64.29%)
Charley Jones - 5 votes (35.71%)
Jim McCormick - 5 votes (35.71%)
Mike Tiernan - 5 votes (35.71%)
Lave Cross - 4 votes (28.57%)
Candy Cummings - 4 votes (28.57%)
Jack Chesbro - 3 votes (21.43%)
Tommy Bond - 2 votes (14.29%)
Mike Griffin - 2 votes (14.29%)
Deacon McGuire - 2 votes (14.29%)
Ed McKean - 2 votes (14.29%)
Tip O'Neill - 1 vote (7.14%)

So unless there's an objection, I'll call this election decided and include Jimmy Ryan as among the inducted.

[dgarza]

So unless there's an objection, I'll call this election decided and include Jimmy Ryan as among the inducted.Although I have already voted, if I was planning to wait until tomorrow to vote, I would be disappointed if couldn't at least have may say, even if the outcome would remain the same. Perhaps we can celebrate now, but still leave voting open for others to at least have their input.

[jjpm74]

I'd be very wary of calling this done a day ahead of time. Especially given how close to election Clark Griffith is.

[DoubleX]

I'd be very wary of calling this done a day ahead of time. Especially given how close to election Clark Griffith is.

There's no mathematical way Griffith can be elected at this point. He has 9 of 14 votes for 64.29%. Even if he gets the remaining 2 votes, he'd only have 11, one short of the necessary 12. I suppose someone can edit their ballot, but most people don't seem to make edits once they've submitted.

I can leave it this open until tomorrow to give our last two voters a chance, but the outcome in terms of who will be elected and who will not, has already been decided and will not change regardless of how our last two voters vote.

[dgarza]

Would there be a real reason to close this 1 day early anyway?
The next one's not going to happen for several years, so I would think we could let this vote last another day.

[DoubleX]

Ok, another day it is.

[BlueBlood]

If Clark Griffith ends up one vote shy of election via new votes/changed ballots, I will amend mine in order to see him elected. I'm right on the fence.

Upon further reflection, he's sort of an Al Spalding kinda-figure for the game whom I gave a vote towards. I have now revised my ballot and added Clark Griffith's name.

[DoubleX]

Ok, so Griffith is still alive, but he will need votes from both the remaining two voters in order to be elected. I'll keep this open until tomorrow.

[henrich]

My 3 votes

Jimmy Ryan
Jim McCormick
Lave Cross

[DoubleX]

Well that didn't last long. Griffith is out of it again.

[Paul Wendt]

Although I have already voted, if I was planning to wait until tomorrow to vote, I would be disappointed if couldn't at least have may say, even if the outcome would remain the same. Perhaps we can celebrate now, but still leave voting open for others to at least have their input.

I concur with dgarza and jjpm, not quoted. I would always let it run until the announced deadline. In a thread such as this, which does not use the polling software, I suppose that ballots may be revised. There is a date (probably should be a date & time) when the election might close if there is a quorum; it should not close before that date (and time, if stated).

[leecemark]

--Well now that Ryan has joined VanHaltren and Duffy the line for outfielders is pretty clearly drawn - and much lower than I'd like it. I'm going to have to get behind Jimmy Sheckard and take another look at Bobby Veach and George Burns now.

[DoubleX]

--Well now that Ryan has joined VanHaltren and Duffy the line for outfielders is pretty clearly drawn - and much lower than I'd like it. I'm going to have to get behind Jimmy Sheckard and take another look at Bobby Veach and George Burns now.

Ryan/Van Haltren/Duffy do have the CF thing going for them, whereas the three you mentioned are corner OFers. I also think it can be a generational analysis. Just because Van Haltren/Duffy/Ryan represent our standards for 1890s OFers, does not necessarily mean that standard would be apt for 1910s OFers.

On the other hand, perhaps we have extended our standard too far, but I feel strongly that once Duffy and Van Haltren were elected, Ryan, as an extraordinarily similar contemporary, should not be denied a place. When we elected Duffy and Van Haltren we clearly said that such caliber of a player from at least that era is worthy, and Ryan met that standard. It could be a fairly unique situation, three extremely similar borderline players from the same era. One may be a fluke, but with two in, simultaneously no less, all three should be in.

[jjpm74]

I don't see how Ryan's election via the VC opens the floodgates. The only contemporaries I can think of who deserve a closer look now that our HOF criteria for OF is more defined are Roy Thomas and Jimmy Sheckard. Our standard for pitchers is what I'm most worried about as Addie Joss and Mickey Welch are now our benchmarks for future comparison.

[Paul Wendt]

Do we have 15 official votes, standings #26 plus henrich?

[DoubleX]

Do we have 15 official votes, standings #26 plus henrich?

Yep. The election percentage I listed for Jimmy Ryan at the beginning of the 1930 election reflects this.