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Paul Wendt
12-05-2008, 02:47 PM
Also-Ran Pitchers covers the losers in phase one of "Top 100 Pitchers". Here we are selecting the best of those also-rans in a series of polls something like the hundred pitchers polls. Please use the same criteria you do use or would use for the hundred pitchers.

That is the project or game. Frankly, my main purpose is to try out and demonstrate a system for projects like this. There will not be much discussion of the method initially but the pace will be faster than it would if ranking the also-rans were important. I will post polls without deadlines but the leaders might advance any time after 48 hours and ten votes.


This poll 2-E matches seven winners from poll 2-C, who should be the best of those who tallied only one vote or no votes in "Top 100 Pitchers", and three strong showers from poll 2-B, who should be among the stronger also-rans with two or more votes.

add:
Bold marks the three winners, and for once it's a rout. (more information below (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showpost.php?p=1379522&postcount=7))
The poll remains open.

The ballot lists candidates and their major league debut years in alphabetical order.
Here they are in chronological order.
UPPERCASE names identify mainly-relief pitchers and UPPERCASE surnames identify intermediate careers.
'DT' and the player name are linked to player pages at BaseballProspectus and Baseball-Reference.

DT (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/newsobo01.php) : Bobo Newsom (http://www.baseball-reference.com/n/newsobo01.shtml), debut 1929
DT (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/passecl01.php) : Claude Passeau (http://www.baseball-reference.com/p/passecl01.shtml), 1935
DT (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/blackew01.php) : Ewell Blackwell (http://www.baseball-reference.com/b/blackew01.shtml), 1942
DT (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/frienbo01.php) : Bob Friend (http://www.baseball-reference.com/f/frienbo01.shtml), 1951
DT (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/cuellmi01.php) : Mike Cuellar (http://www.baseball-reference.com/c/cuellmi01.shtml), 1959
DT (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/stottme01.php) : Mel Stottlemyre (http://www.baseball-reference.com/s/stottme01.shtml), 1964
DT (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/niekrjo01.php) : Joe Niekro (http://www.baseball-reference.com/n/niekrjo01.shtml), 1967
DT (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/sutclri01.php) : Rick Sutcliffe (http://www.baseball-reference.com/s/sutclri01.shtml), 1976
DT (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/langsma01.php) : Mark Langston (http://www.baseball-reference.com/l/langsma01.shtml), 1984
DT (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/moyerja01.php) : Jamie Moyer (http://www.baseball-reference.com/m/moyerja01.shtml), 1986

Vote for 3 of 10

There will be three winners who advance to stage three and contend with the remainders from poll 3-B for high rungs on the ladder.

Never mind the number-lettering of this series. There are four classes of polls; one is numbered "1-x" and another "3-x" but this subset numbered "2-x" is a mix. This is the third or fourth "Also-Ran" poll for everyone on the ballot, one in stage one and the others in neverending stage two. (It is the fourth for Jamie Moyer and Mel Stottlemyre who have 2-1 won-lost records, in baseball speak.)

Paul Wendt
12-05-2008, 02:48 PM
CONTENTS

Stage One, a first pass through all the also-rans from "Top 100 Pitchers" phase one,
eight rounds

poll 1-A (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=83799) - still open but leaders have advanced to poll 2-A
poll 1-B (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=83842) - still open but leaders have advanced to poll 2-A
poll 1-C (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=83841) - still open but leaders have advanced to poll 2-A
poll 1-D (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=83898) - still open but leaders have advanced to poll 2-B
poll 1-E (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=84027) - still open but leaders have advanced to poll 2-C
poll 1-F (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=84152) - still open but leaders have advanced to poll 2-C
poll 1-G (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=84177) - still open but leaders have advanced to poll 2-C
poll 1-H (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=84322) - still open but leaders have advanced to poll 2-C
poll 1-I (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=85238) - poll open, 12-02


Stage Two

poll 2-A (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=83908) - still open but leaders have advanced to poll 3-A and the rest have continued in poll 2-B
poll 2-B (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=84369) - still open but leaders have advanced to poll 3-B
poll 2-C (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=84603) - still open but leaders have advanced to the queue
poll 2-D (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=85266) - poll open, 12-03
poll 2-E (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=85308) - poll open, 12-05 (You are here.)


Stage Three, runging the ladder in threes

poll 3-A (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=84285) - still open but leaders have been rung and the rest have continued in poll 3-B
poll 3-B (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=84862) - still open but leaders have been rung -12-05 and the rest await poll 3-C

Paul Wendt
12-05-2008, 02:49 PM
dupli-cate

Paul Wendt
12-05-2008, 03:10 PM
There is no grade A or A- batter on this ballot, not to mention A+ (Mike Hampton).

If you like to think in terms of ERA+ or DERA+, this chart provides crucial information. For example, you should drop Bob Friend a little more than 3.5 points to account for his bad batting. Call it three if you will pinch-hit for him a little earlier than major league teams historically replace their high-quality starting pitchers. Or if you use whole-number ERA+ and DERA+ 107 and 109, drop him three and four points to 104 and 105.

Ewell Blackwell and Claude Passeau were by far the best pitchers on the ballot by DERA+, 117 and 115. After incorporation of batting skill they both rate about 115.5. With more than double Blackwell's career innings, about 2720 to 1320, Passeau is one easy selection in this "vote for three".

grade A: Geo Mullin, Geo Uhle (not on this ballot)

------ ------ +3.5 points



------ ------ +2.5 points


Sutcliffe
------ ------ +1.5 points on the ERA+ scale

Stottlemyre
Passeau
------ ------ +0.5 points


------ ------ -0.5 points
Langston, Niekro
Moyer
Blackwell
------ ------ -1.5 points on the ERA+ scale


Newsom
------ ------ -2.5 points

Cuellar

------ ------ -3.5 points
Friend


Bobo Newsom may deserve a D+, maybe not. With 1929 debut and 1953 finale it isn't easy to put him in any box anywhere. He was a C-range batter in the 1930s including his MVP-type season (4th, AL 1940). He even batted 1 for 10 in three World Series games while the great Schoolboy Rowe batted 0 for 1 in two games.

Paul Wendt
12-05-2008, 07:32 PM
Here are career rates for the ten pitchers. They are ordered and grouped by DERA and DERA+, although I recommend DERA* as a measure of pitching-batting rate(or skill).
--or use ERA* if you are wedded to unearned runs, or some weighted average
--or ure ERA* and DERA* if re: official earned/unearned accounting and Clay Davenport's alternative accounting you judge that that average is probably better than either one.

No one should use ERA+ or DERA+ or any other measure of pitching alone, except with the purpose to ignore pitcher batting.

ERA* ERA+ tField DERA DERA+ OPS+ DERA*

118.5 120 -0.07 : 3.85 116.9 : 10 : 115.4 : Blackwell
113.5 113 -0.21 : 3.91 115.1 : 35 : 115.6 : Passeau

104.6 107 -0.15 : 4.13 109.0 : +8 : 106.5 : Newsom
103.5 107 -0.15 : 4.13 109.0 :-19 : 105.4 : Friend
107.4 108 -0.09 : 4.13 109.0 : -1 : 108.4 : Langston
113.1 112 +0.02 : 4.16 108.2 : 27 : 109.2 : Stottlemyre

104.8 106 +0.07 : 4.36 103.2 : -8 : 102.1 : Moyer
_98.6 _97 -0.13 : 4.39 102.5 : 30 : 104.2 : Sutcliffe
105.8 109 +0.20 : 4.48 100.4 :-15 : _97.5 : Cuellar

_96.4 _97 +0.02 : 4.67 _96.3 : +8 : _95.8 : Niekro

ERA+, DERA+, and DERA* (bold) and ERA* (column one) are expressed on the same scale. DERA+ differs from ERA+ by using a measure of team fielding that differs from unearned runs. DERA* differs from DERA+ by incorporating pitcher batting. ERA* differs from ERA+ in the same way

tField is the contribution of team fielding relative to league average, expressed on the ERA scale (runs per 9 inns) except that negative is bad. Passeau suffered with the worst team fielding and Cuellar enjoyed the best. Among all good pitchers with long careers, few suffered worse than Passeau (-0.21 runs/9ip). What Cuellar enjoyed (+0.20 runs/9ip) is about equal in magnitude on the other side but it is much more common. What Cuellar enjoyed may be more common than the bad team fielding suffered by Newsom, Friend, and Sutcliffe (-0.15 to -0.13). The median among 470 good pitchers in my desktop database is +0.05.

OPS+ is the measure of batting skill that I incorporate with pitching skill measured by DERA+ or ERA+. OPS+ is a convenient single measure for that purpose because it is another index where 100 means league average and 101 means 1% above league average.

Paul Wendt
12-09-2008, 02:23 PM
In this one (2-E) it appears that the three carryovers who earned at least two votes long ago --Cuellar, Moyer, and Stottlemyre-- will thrash the best of the distant also-rans. But I won't be hasty. Have your own say.

The Also-Ran Pitchers polls remain open forever but two other contests are still undecided in that I have not yet declared winners who will advance (and I don't yet have enough voters to do so).

CONTENTS

Stage One, a first pass through all the also-rans from "Top 100 Pitchers" phase one,

poll 1-I (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=85238) - poll open, 12-02


Stage Two

poll 2-A (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=83908) - still open but leaders have advanced to poll 3-A and the rest have continued in poll 2-B
poll 2-B (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=84369) - still open but leaders have advanced to poll 3-B
poll 2-C (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=84603) - still open but leaders have advanced to the queue
poll 2-D (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=85266) - poll open, 12-03
poll 2-E (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=85308) - poll open, 12-05 (You are here.)

Paul Wendt
12-17-2008, 11:56 AM
After 10 votes cast,
three winners advance to stage three.

6, Mel Stottlemyre
5, Mike Cuellar
5, Jamie Moyer

We may dip again from this pool. The current leader for that honor pitched in four decades, as we say of Jim Kaat.
3, Bobo Newsom

He may be the greatest career pitcher with a losing career record.


The poll remains open but the leftovers will not overtake the winners based on votes that continue to be cast here. There is another sense in which leftoveres will not overtake the winners . . . a prediction based on the fact that this one is a rout.

(Poll 2-D represents an earlier stage although it is also numbered '2' in this clunky system. There has been no announcement of winners there, yet, and a few more opinions will be appreciated.)