poll for hall of fame ballot

[henrich]

There are 23 eligible players listed on this year's Hall of Fame ballot. I noticed that someone already beat me to it, but I wanted to try my first poll anyway. Hopefully, I'm not stepping on anyone's toes here. I'll leave the ballot open for 30 days as to allow for as many participants as possible before the writer's votes are made public.

http://web.baseballhalloffame.org/news/article.jsp?ymd=20081201&content_id=10268&vkey=hof_news

The link above takes you to a brief overview of the candidates.

[henrich]

The 13 holdovers voting percentage is as follows:

Rice 72.2%
Dawson 65.9%
Blyleven 61.9%
Smith Lee 43.3%
Morris 42.9%
John T. 29.1%
Raines 24.3%
McGwire 23.6%
Trammell 18.2%
Mattingly 15.8%
Parker 15.1%
Murphy 13.8%
Baines 5.2%

New to the ballot this year
Henderson
Gant
Vaughn Mo
Vaughn Greg
Grace
Williams, Matt
Bell, Jay
Cone
Orosco
Plesac

Fell off the ballot from last year: Concepcion
Elected from last year's ballot: Gossage

[henrich]

My top 10 in order of most votes from last year's election with newbies at the end.

Rice
Dawson
Blyleven
Lee Smith
Morris
John
Raines
Parker
Henderson
Williams, Matt

My next 4 left off the ballot, which I would vote for if I could
Cone
Murphy
Trammell
McGwire

My just missing:
Mattingly
Grace
Baines

No way vote
Orosco
Gant
Vaughn, Mo
Vaughn, Greg
Plesac
Bell,Jay

[Cougar]

Largely agree...

Orosco might deserve a slightly longer look as the record holder for games pitched, and a guy with an exceptional career ERA in a decent number of innings (albeit compiled one or two outs at a time for much of his run).

[Paul Wendt]

After 7 ballots we have 65 votes cast.

A few hours ago I supported eight. Here I voted for ten. The candidates helped and hurt as I wash to and fro are the pitchers Tommy John, David Cone, and Lee Smith.

[jjpm74]

I treated this as if it were a real vote. In a real vote, I would vote for 10 even though I don't think 10 of these candidates are definite HOFers:

Mark McGwire
Don Mattingly
Mark Grace
Alan Trammell
Rickey Henderson
Tim Raines
Andre Dawson
Bert Blyleven
David Cone
Lee Smith

Mark Grace, Dave Cone, Don Mattingly and Lee Smith are good enough that they deserve to at least remain active on the ballot for 2009. The rest I do think are HOFers.

Dale Murphy would have been there if I could have voted for 11.

[PVNICK]

Trammell, Rickey, Raines, Blyleven

[gman5431]

Henderson only. Very suprised by Raines support in this poll as opposed to his lack thereof in real voting 2007.

G Man

[KCGHOST]

McGwire, Trammell, Raines, Blyleven and Rickey. Of that group the BBWAA will only support Rickey at the 75% level.

For those that don't understand the support for Raines you might want to consider that compared to the 37 corner OFers in the HoF Raines would rank 14th in career win shares and 7th in WARP3. That's approximately where Tony Gwynn ranks.

[Domenic]

It really is a shame that Tim Raines is not in the Hall of Fame already, and I doubt he will make it over the next few years. Whether it is a product of his drug use or his playing in the same MLB as Rickey Henderson, it is completely absurd... Raines is a Hall of Famer.

[The Fine Chi]

No votes for Dan Plesac?

[Cougar]

Why would there be?

[Domenic]

I'll have you know that Dan Plesac was a three-time All-Star, and finished as high as 22nd in MVP vote.

[The Fine Chi]

I guess that's better than Ron Gant, who made 2 AS teams, but he did once finish as high as 5th in the MVP vote (Atlanta 1993)

[Greg Maddux's Biggest Fan]

I only support three candidates here: Raines, Blyleven & Henderson.

Surprised by the Alan Trammel votes here. He had 1 elite offensive years at SS, 4-5 well above average years, but plenty of downright mediocre offensive years. In fact, in 6 years in which he had 375 or more atbats, he logged an OPS of less than .700. Career slugging % of.415 is uninspiring and he was a low percentage basestealer with average walks. Although he had beautiful hands in the field, he was no Ozzie Smith at shortstop. High grass at old Tiger stadium inflates his range factor.

I view Trammell as an well above average shortstop on aggregate, but falling modestly short of HOF status - especially since he played the backhalf of his career at the beginning of the live ball era. No way Trammell should see the Hall.

I must add though that his 1987 campaign was a extremely memorable season. As a Blue Jay fan, I must have watched him play 15 times that season, as the Tigers were in a heated pennant race with the Jays. Trammell killed us that year, and he was unbelievable with the bat. If they would have given him the MVP over George Bell, I wouldnt have complained. It was an awesome campaign.

[Fuzzy Bear]

McGwire
Raines
Blyleven
Henderson
Blyleven
John
Morris
Trammell

"NO" to Jim Rice, but I think he'll make it anyway.

[Paul Wendt]

I only support three candidates here: Raines, Blyleven & Henderson.

Surprised by the Alan Trammel votes here. He had a 2-3 elite offensive years at SS.
The Hall of Fame standard at shortstop is zero elite offensive years, or so it was.

[Greg Maddux's Biggest Fan]

The Hall of Fame standard at shortstop is zero elite offensive years, or so it was.

Well, thats not entirely true; it just depends what generation you're looking at. There are actually a few SS who blow Trammell out of the water offensively, and defensively, he wasn't good enough to make it on those credentials.

Anyway, here's a list of players, irrespectively of generation, who were better offensively than Alan Trammell in the HOF:

AVG .OBS .SLG .HITS HR RBI .RUNS ..SB
Luke Appling
.310 .399 .398 2,749 45 1,116 1,319 179

Ernie Banks
.274 .333 .500 2,583 512 1,636 1,305 50

Joe Cronin
.301 .390 .468 2,285 170 1,424 1,233 87

George Davis
.295 .361 .405 2,660 73 1,435 1,540 615

Cal Ripken, Jr.
.276 .340 .447 3,184 431 1,695 1,647 36

Joe Sewell
.312 .391 .413 2,226 49 1,055 1,141 74

Arky Vaughan
.318 .406 .453 2,103 96 926 1,173 118

Honus Wagner
.327 .391 .466 3,415 101 1,732 1,736 722


You can make a legitimate case that Trammell was on par with HOF Travis Jackson or Lou Beaudreau offensively; and better than Phil Rizzuto, Rabbit Maranville & Reese, but I think those choices are mistakes so thats no compliment. And of course they were considered premier defensive players... especially Maranville.

Anyway, in lieu of Trammell inconsistency staying healthy, and playing almost half his career in PRIME offensive era, and considering he was an above average but not premier defensive player, I have to say no to Trammell.

But heh, I'm a "Small Hall" type of guy. I rather not see the likes of Trammell get in because if you do, you have to give the likes of Tony Fernandez SERIOUS consideration. In fact, you almost have to support Fernandez's case if you support Trammell's, as their stats parellel each other's almost exactly. (Trammell was slightly better offensively but Fernandez was sightly better defensively).

[Freakshow]

All players 1600+ games at SS, 7500+ PA, 98+ OPS+:
Cnt Player OPS+ G PA From To
+----+-----------------+----+----+-----+----+----+
1 Honus Wagner 150 2792 11739 1897 1917
2 Derek Jeter 121 1985 9093 1995 2008
3 Joe Cronin 119 2124 8838 1926 1945
4 Barry Larkin 116 2180 9057 1986 2004
5 Cal Ripken 112 3001 12883 1981 2001
6 Luke Appling 112 2422 10243 1930 1950
7 Jack Glasscock 112 1736 7535 1879 1895
8 Alan Trammell 110 2293 9375 1977 1996
9 Bill Dahlen 109 2443 10390 1891 1911
10 Bobby Wallace 105 2383 9612 1894 1918
11 Pee Wee Reese 99 2166 9470 1940 1958
12 Dave Bancroft 98 1913 8244 1915 1930

[Captain Cold Nose]

I guess that's better than Ron Gant, who made 2 AS teams, but he did once finish as high as 5th in the MVP vote (Atlanta 1993)

With a maximum of ten votes, neither one of them is going to get or even deserve much support when the vast majority of the players on this ballot had better careers.

[RuthMayBond]

Surprised by the Alan Trammel votes here. He had a 2-3 elite offensive years at SSWhat years are you referring to? Obviously 1987 but beyond that OPS+ for '83, '93, '88, '84, and '90 are almost identical

<he was a low percentage basestealer>

68% isn't that low

<I view Trammell as an well above average shortstop on aggregate, but falling modestly short of HOF status ->

He arguably had a better career than Aparicio, Wallace, Reese, Boudreau, Maranville, Sewell, Bancroft, Tinker, Rizzuto, Jennings, Jackson ...

<especially since he played the backhalf of his career at the beginning of the live ball era.>

You might want to give that a different name

[curveball]

I voted for Blyleven, Henderson, and Raines.

I really haven't studied Trammell, Parker, or Dawson quite nearly enough to say that I have an informed enough opinion on whether they belong in the HoF.

I have studied Rice a little, and so far, he doesn't qualify in my opinion, but I could definitely be swayed differently with the proper statistical arguments.

The only other ones that really interested me were Cone, and Baines, but again, I did not vote for them not because I was convinced they did not belong, but because I have yet to take the time necessary to examine their merits. I should probably throw Lee Smith's name in thee too.

[Greg Maddux's Biggest Fan]

What years are you referring to? Obviously 1987 but beyond that OPS+ for '83, '93, '88, '84, and '90 are almost identical

<he was a low percentage basestealer>

68% isn't that low

<I view Trammell as an well above average shortstop on aggregate, but falling modestly short of HOF status ->

He arguably had a better career than Aparicio, Wallace, Reese, Boudreau, Maranville, Sewell, Bancroft, Tinker, Rizzuto, Jennings, Jackson ...

<especially since he played the backhalf of his career at the beginning of the live ball era.>

You might want to give that a different name


Your right, I changed the original quote to 1 elite offensive year, and 4-5 well above average offensive years... Worth noting too that the 'elite' year happened in 1987, when a plethora of players had career years, especially in the power department (George Bell, Andre Dawson, Ivan Calderon, Wally Joyner, Jack Clark, Juan Samuel, Tim Wallach, Matt Nokes, Brook Jacoby, Mike Pagliarulo, Wade Boggs[power], McGwire[blew away rookie homerun record], Larry Sheets etc). This a big net negative for Trammell's case, as he was unable to come close to matching his 1987 statistics in the slugging department, which strongly suggests the live ball inflated his stats.

68% basestealing IS a low percentage basestealer. It is generally recognized that if a player isn't stealing 2 bases for every 1 time he's caught, then its detrimental to attempt to steal bases.

He had a better offensive career than some on that list, and I said that already. But I think some of those are bad picks. I don't think the Hall will repeat the bad selections of the past, especially in the new era of excellent offensive shortstops.

[Freakshow]

I don't think the Hall will repeat the bad selections of the past, especially in the new era of excellent offensive shortstops.A common misconception. Baseball has usually had a couple excellent offensive shortstops along with a bunch of average to poor offensive players.

All players 900+ games at SS, 1999-2008
Cnt Player OPS+ G PA From To
+----+-----------------+----+----+-----+----+----+
1 Derek Jeter 124 1505 6946 1999 2008
2 Miguel Tejada 114 1582 6828 1999 2008
3 Edgar Renteria 98 1467 6214 1999 2008
4 Jimmy Rollins 98 1251 5787 2000 2008
5 Rafael Furcal 96 1150 5191 2000 2008
6 David Eckstein 88 1059 4645 2001 2008
7 Julio Lugo 88 1149 4733 2000 2008
8 Omar Vizquel 87 1360 5858 1999 2008
9 Orlando Cabrera 86 1477 6228 1999 2008
10 Alex Gonzalez 81 1092 4249 1999 2007
11 Cristian Guzman 79 1167 4834 1999 2008
12 Jack Wilson 78 1084 4417 2001 2008
13 Royce Clayton 76 1177 4440 1999 2007

[Greg Maddux's Biggest Fan]

I'll take Jimmy Rollins over Trammell everyday of the week, and twice on Tuesday.

[philkid3]

68% isn't low? It's below break-even.

McGwire
Trammell
Henderson
Raines
John
Blyleven
Smith

[Paul Wendt]

Well, thats not entirely true; it just depends what generation you're looking at. There are actually a few SS who blow Trammell out of the water offensively
but those who "blow T our of the water" do not compose a standard.
nor do the merely good ones such as Joe Sewell and Bobby Wallace. Trammell put up a few more elite offensive seasons than Bobby Wallace --unless you count so few as one for T and none for W, which is only one more-- and Sewell put up only one elite offensive season.

Anyway, here's a list of players, irrespectively of generation, who were better offensively than Alan Trammell in the HOF:

AVG .OBS .SLG .HITS HR RBI .RUNS .SB
Luke Appling
.310 .399 .398 2,749 45 1,116 1,319 179

Ernie Banks
.274 .333 .500 2,583 512 1,636 1,305 50

Joe Cronin
.301 .390 .468 2,285 170 1,424 1,233 87

George Davis
.295 .361 .405 2,660 73 1,435 1,540 615

Cal Ripken, Jr.
.276 .340 .447 3,184 431 1,695 1,647 36

Joe Sewell
.312 .391 .413 2,226 49 1,055 1,141 74

Arky Vaughan
.318 .406 .453 2,103 96 926 1,173 118

Honus Wagner
.327 .391 .466 3,415 101 1,732 1,736 722
drop Sewell, add Yount, and you have eight.
Ripken and Yount were Trammell contemporaries (and league-mates) whose accomplishments presumably hurt his standing.
drop Ripken & Yount; add George Wright and Hugh Jennings, and you have eight superior batting shortstops from the major leagues before T's time who are in the Hall of Fame (Davis elected recently).

Wright, Jennings, Davis, Wagner, Cronin, Appling, Vaughan, Banks (8 HOF shortstops)


The Next Group (Trammell's).
Most of the Hall of Fame shortstops in the next group did put up one or more "elite offensive season" if Trammell put up one that clearly qualifies. At the same time it is easy to argue that Trammell's best season was better than theirs. It is easy enough to draw a line that discriminates among the five including Trammell, but close enough that it would be opportunistic to do so; it would be cherry-picking for Trammell. So I stand corrected: one elite offensive season may be the norm; at least it is not unusual for a shortstop to have one.

Dahlen, Wallace, Sewell, Boudreau (3 more HOF shortstops and another hopeful like Trammell)

You can make a legitimate case that Trammell was on par with HOF Travis Jackson or Lou Beaudreau offensively
Boudreau, yes.
I daresay there is no reasonable case for Travis Jackson in Trammell's class. Jackson wasn't that good.


Joe Tinker, Rabbit Maranville, Dave Bancroft, Travis Jackson, Pee Wee Reese (5)
--at their best not so good as Trammell with the bat
(Reese was no great shakes with the glove; certainly elected partly for his batting, perhaps partly for Dodger Blue. But there is no place for him in the grouplet just above. If he put up a couple of elite offensive seasons then those guys put up 6 to 10 each.)


John Ward, Phil Rizzuto, Luis Aparicio (3)
--never good batters


That classification may be improved but it is good enough here. Most would put Maranville in the bottom group; it takes a very liberal interpretation of 1917-1919 to boost him out of there.

Hall of Fame shortstops not listed (5)
: John Lloyd, Willie Wells - Negro Leagues
: Robin Yount, Cal Ripken, Ozzie Smith - contemporary to Trammell

[Greg Maddux's Biggest Fan]

but those who "blow T our of the water" do not compose a standard.
nor do the merely good ones such as Joe Sewell and Bobby Wallace. Trammell put up a few more elite offensive seasons than Bobby Wallace --unless you count so few as one for T and none for W, which is only one more-- and Sewell put up only one elite offensive season.


drop Sewell, add Yount, and you have eight.
Ripken and Yount were Trammell contemporaries (and league-mates) whose accomplishments presumably hurt his standing.
drop Ripken & Yount; add George Wright and Hugh Jennings, and you have eight superior batting shortstops from the major leagues before T's time who are in the Hall of Fame (Davis elected recently).

Wright, Jennings, Davis, Wagner, Cronin, Appling, Vaughan, Banks (8 HOF shortstops)

Most of the Hall of Fame shortstops in the next group did put up one or more "elite offensive season" if Trammell put up one that clearly qualifies. At the same time it is easy to argue that Trammell's best season was better than theirs. It is easy enough to draw the line between them, but close enough that it would be opportunistic to do so. So I stand corrected: one elite offensive season may be the norm; at least it is not unusual for a shortstop to have one.

Dahlen (this week?), Wallace, Sewell, Boudreau (3 more and a hopeful)


Boudreau, yes.
I daresay there is no reasonable case for Travis Jackson in Trammell's class. Jackson wasn't that good.

Joe Tinker, Rabbit Maranville, Dave Bancroft, Travis Jackson, Pee Wee Reese (5)
--at their best not so good as Trammell with the bat
(Reese was no great shakes with the glove; certainly elected partly for his batting, perhaps partly for Dodger Blue. But there is no place for him in the grouplet just above. If he put up a couple of elite offensive seasons then those guys put up 6 to 10 each.)

John Ward, Phil Rizzuto, Luis Aparicio (3)
--never good batters


That classification may be improved but it is good enough here. Most would put Maranville in the bottom group; it takes a very liberal interpretation of 1917-1919 to boost him out of there.

Hall of Fame shortstops not listed (5)
: John Lloyd, Willie Wells - Negro Leagues
: Robin Yount, Cal Ripken, Ozzie Smith - contemporary to Trammell

Im not saying Trammell does not qualify because he only put up 1 elite season necessarily, just saying the some of those other Hall Of Famer's put up more than 1. Some like Reese, Maranvill & Rizzuto put up zero, and were mediocre offensively. I don't support their candidacy either, so Im not discriminating here.

Also, as Ive pointed out, Trammell's elite season came in the first year of the juiced ball era of 1987. In fact, his OPS that year was a full 104 pts better than any other year in his career. Thats huge. Because this was far and away his best season, I tend to think '87 was a statistical aberration by a very good, but not great, player.

I would give Trammell the benefit of the doubt IF he had a longer/better peak OR if he was an elite defensive player OR if he was durable enough to not be on the DL 1-3 times every year. As it stands, this is not the case and I think the writers have it right leaving him out.

Like I said, you'd be hard pressed not voting Tony Fernandez in if Trammell gets elected, albeit Trammell was a hair better player.

[Allie Fox]

Is Big Mac not getting the votes because of the steroid cloud or because he just isn't deserving?

[RuthMayBond]

Is Big Mac not getting the votes because of the steroid cloud or because he just isn't deserving?It couldn't be the latter

[RuthMayBond]

I would give Trammell the benefit of the doubt IF he was durable enough to not be on the DL 1-3 times every year.At a position that has baserunners trying to take your legs out, he played in at least 139 games in what would have been ten straight years were it not for the 1981 strike (where he played 105 out of 109). Plus 146 games in 1990 and two other years of at least 121 games. I don't know what more you want.

[Greg Maddux's Biggest Fan]

At a position that has baserunners trying to take your legs out, he played in at least 139 games in what would have been ten straight years were it not for the 1981 strike (where he played 105 out of 109). Plus 146 games in 1990 and two other years of at least 121 games. I don't know what more you want.

That never stopped Fernandez, Ripken, Vizquel, Jeter, O. Smith etc etc from consstently playing alot of games.

Excluding the strike year of 1981, and 1977 when he played only 19 games,Trammell averaged 120 games played over 18 seasons.

So yeah, he was on the pine way too much for .767 career OPS guy. I believe a guy with his stats, even at shortstop, requires better counting stats to get in, unless you are a superior defensive player a la Ozzie Smith. If he would have averaged 145+ games played over that span, he would have amassed 2700+ hits and generally would have come closer to some of the key metrics required to get in.

Thats just my opinion, and considering Trammell only garnered 19% of the vote by writers, alot of people agree. But if Alan Trammell were inducted, would he be in the lower-middle echelon of inductees at Shortstop?? Absolutely. Do I personally think Phil Rizzuto, Rabbit Maranville et al should be there in the first place? Absolutely not. So Trammell having more of a case than those aforementioned players is not much of an argument for me.

BTW I enjoy the debate & respect everybody's opinion. There's definitely 2 strong sides to the Alan Trammell HOF Case.

[RuthMayBond]

That never stopped Ripken,
If Ripken is the standard . . .

<Vizquel>

Might wanna check out '90
AND '94
AND '03.
I don't know that '92 was anything special.

[RuthMayBond]

That never stopped Fernandez, Vizquel, O. Smith etc etc from consstently playing alot of games.

Excluding the strike year of 1981, and 1977 when he played only 19 games,Trammell averaged 120 games played over 18 seasons.

So yeah, he was on the pine way too much for .767 career OPS guy. Let's try this again.
Trammell was a career 110 OPS+ guy.
Fernandez was 101
Smith was 87
Vizquel was 83
The mighty Ripken was only two points above Trammell.
Do you still wanna rag on Trammell's hitting?

[Greg Maddux's Biggest Fan]

If Ripken is the standard . . .

<Vizquel>

Might wanna check out '90
AND '94
AND '03.
I don't know that '92 was anything special.

Thats your response??

Omar vizquel averaged 134 games over 20 seasons; a full 14 games more than Alan Trammell.

Now, if you prorate 14 extra games over 18 years that Trammell played, then Vizquel played 252 more games than he did. Again, those extra stats Trammell could have accumulated are key to someone so close to the edge to begin with. Also, the fact the Tigers had to play a back-up infielder for, on average, 42 games every year significantly brings down his value for his team.

Consistency is a big thing for me, hence, I put measurably more value on a player who averaged 150 games played over 13 years, than one who averages 122 games over 16 years for example, all stats being equal. The consistent player is more valuable & dependable for his team, and less playing time is given to a back-up player.

[RuthMayBond]

Also, the fact the Tigers had to play a back-up infielder for, on average, 42 games every year significantlyAnd Vizquel's team had to play a back-up infielder for, on average, 28 game every year, I'm familiar with math

<Consistency is a big thing for me, hence, I put measurably more value on a player who averaged 150 games played over 13 years, than one who averages 122 games over 16 fo years, a stats being similar.>

Do you put any value on a 110 OPS+ vs. an 83 OPS+?

[Greg Maddux's Biggest Fan]

And Vizquel's team had to play a back-up infielder for, on average, 28 game every year, I'm familiar with math

<Consistency is a big thing for me, hence, I put measurably more value on a player who averaged 150 games played over 13 years, than one who averages 122 games over 16 fo years, a stats being similar.>

Do you put any value on a 110 OPS+ vs. an 83 OPS+?

Im not arguing that Vizquel should be in the Hall, or that he was better than Trammell, so I dont see your point. What I did say that Vizquel was significantly more durable than Trammell, and 14 games/year is quite a gap.

[RuthMayBond]

Im not arguing that Vizquel should be in the Hall, or that he was better than Trammell, so I dont see your point. What I did say that Vizquel was significantly more durable than Trammell, and 14 games is quite a gap.Ok, but Ripken was definitely more durable than Vizquel

[Cougar]

Ripken was more durable than anybody!:clapping

[STLCards2]

For sure:

Henderson
Raines
Blyleven
John
Trammel

Maybe:

Dawson
McGwire (still don;t know how to handle Mac & roids. Very different from the Clemens, Bonds, Sheffield cases, since they were clearly HOF guys w/o steroids.)