C.C. Sabathia

[Bravesfan1984]

I know C. C. Sabathia has only played 8 years but if he were to continue on this pace do thin he would make the HOF?

[baseball junkie]

I think once Carsten Charles Sabathia gets his USD 140 M contract he's going to be living at Taco Bell (or Del Taco, if he signs with Anaheim.) I'll be surprised if he stays under 300 lbs. I have to think his size will cause injuries as he ages and that will cut his career short.

It's all going to be about motivation and he if he goes to the Yankees and doesn't perform and balloons up the tabloids are going to eat him alive.

[jalbright]

I know C. C. Sabathia has only played 8 years but if he were to continue on this pace do thin he would make the HOF?

For how long? Makes a big difference whether it's one year or ten, for instance.

[SABR Matt]

I'm not all that big a fan of CC's record. I think he's a bit overrated...pitched in front of some pretty darned good Indian defenses (these are the defenses that allowed Jake Westbrook and Kevin Millwood to have huge seasons, for example)...

Not that CC isn't a very good pitcher, but I think he's going to have to stay healthy for 15+ years to be a HOFer.

[gman5431]

Definately too early to tell. He obviously has the skill to one day be enshrined, but as you mentioned he has only pitched 8 years and a few of those years he wasnt exactly dominate, even this past season he was lit up early before becoming a horse. It will be interesting to see how he performs once he signs this big deal. Could go either way - HOF or bust.

G Man

[KCGHOST]

He has a modest chance at it. If e can have 5 more years similar to the last two and then 5-7 years of graceful decline he can make it.

[Domenic]

He has a modest chance at it. If e can have 5 more years similar to the last two and then 5-7 years of graceful decline he can make it.

I agree with this, though I would probably slash the requirements in years to 3 or 4 on both counts.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Definately too early to tell. He obviously has the skill to one day be enshrined, but as you mentioned he has only pitched 8 years and a few of those years he wasnt exactly dominate, even this past season he was lit up early before becoming a horse. It will be interesting to see how he performs once he signs this big deal. Could go either way - HOF or bust.

G Man
He had some early struggles in April but he had an outstanding '08 season overall, a HoF caliber season for sure. There is a clear dividing line of performance in Sabathia's career and that dividing line is between the '05 and '06 seasons.



. ERA ERA+ K/9 BB/9
Thru '05 4.10 106 7.04 3.54
'06-'08 3.03 148 8.28 1.83


Sabathia put up a 162 ERA+ in '08 by the way, the best of his career. He's strikeout rate has increased and his walk rate has decreased significantly. If Sabahtia can pitch at his '06-'08 level of performance for another 6-8 years that would probably make him a HoFer. In eight years Sabathia will only be 35 years old. There are two issues that might derail him, his weight and his heavy workload.

[SABR Matt]

He was already showing some red-flag signs right at the end of '08...he missed time in September when the Brewers needed him...pitched quite poorly in the post-season...I would BABVA when it comes to his workload and his poor physical conditioning.

[bambambaseball]

Hes a lot like Hippo Vaughn now. Maybe in like 6 years if he stays healthy.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

He was already showing some red-flag signs right at the end of '08...he missed time in September when the Brewers needed him...pitched quite poorly in the post-season...I would BABVA when it comes to his workload and his poor physical conditioning.

Matt,

I checked Sabathia's starts in September. I don't see any "missed time". His September starts were:

09/05-ND
09/10-ND
09/16-L
09/20-L
09/24-W
09/28-W

In his two no-decisions, Sabathia pitched well (14 IP, 4 ER, 17 Ks, 3 BB) and the Brewers won both games. His two losses in September were one-run losses. However, he bounced back in his final two starts to win both games going seven innings and nine innings, respectively.

[SABR Matt]

I thought I'd heard that Sabathia missed the last start of the season with back problems...maybe that was Sheets. If so, I stand corrected.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

I thought I'd heard that Sabathia missed the last start of the season with back problems...maybe that was Sheets. If so, I stand corrected.

Yes, Ben Sheets is the "glass man", not Sabathia. :D

[Mike90]

Ben Sheets would be a hall of famer if he could only stay healthy...well, I guess you can say that for a lot of pitchers throughout history. From 2004 thru 2008, Sheets has a 135 ERA+ but only 53 wins and one 200-inning season.

[SABR Matt]

That dude just cannot catch a break!

So many injuries...and the humorous thing is...they're not really related to each other. Kind of like Erik Bedard. Both of them keep finding more and more creative ways to get injured.

[thewupk]

Yeah CC made like 4 starts in a row on short rest at the end of Sept to just get the Brewers into the playoffs. CC has a shot it just depends how long this level of performance lasts and if he can stay healthy. Him starting as early as he did and getting a ton of wins definately helps him.

[Paul Wendt]

> Yeah CC made like 4 starts in a row on short rest at the end of Sept to just get the Brewers into the playoffs.

The record posted by HWR clearly shows three starts on what is now called short rest, with long rest preceding that run. Specifically, his last four starts followed <5, 3, 3, 3> days off.


09/05-ND
09/10-ND [14 inns in those two ND; 4 runs, 4 earned]
09/16-L
09/20-L [12-2/3 inns in those two L; 8 runs, 5 earned]
09/24-W
09/28-W [16 inns in those two W; 2 runs, 1 earned]
Then he pitched once more on 3 days off, a bad playoff defeat by the Phillies.
10/02-L [3-2/3 inns, 5 runs]

In those last four games 9/20 to 10/02 all on three days rest,
2-2 W-L
25-1/3 inns
11 runs, 7 earned.

By the way, BaseBall-Reference now provides "Game Logs" for pitchers, regular season only, which provide the numbers of intervening "days rest" explicitly (column 'DR'). Those last four regular season games were team games #151, 155, 158, and 162; that is, four of the last twelve Brewers season games. Visit Sabathia 2008 at baseball-reference (http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/gl.cgi?n1=sabatc.01&t=p&year=2008)

[digglahhh]

Most of the posters on this board live in America, where obesity is a full-fledged epidemic. Many of us are also quite familiar with statistical analysis and probability. Don't think the irony is lost, guys. Although it seems like many posters feel obliged to make the presumed requisite remark about C.C. girth (usually in non-funny, lowest common denominator terms), the most astute of us are laughing, as we are aware that several of you joking about C.C.'s weight are, indeed, fat asses in your own right.

Just sayin'...

I mean, seriously, if you want to raise his fitness regimen in a legit, well-intentioned speculation about his future career, that's cool. But, have we not progressed past junior high, that we can't mention Sabathia without people making sophomoric fat jokes?

[Fuzzy Bear]

Most of the posters on this board live in America, where obesity is a full-fledged epidemic. Many of us are also quite familiar with statistical analysis and probability. Don't think the irony is lost, guys. Although it seems like many posters feel obliged to make the presumed requisite remark about C.C. girth (usually in non-funny, lowest common denominator terms), the most astute of us are laughing, as we are aware that several of you joking about C.C.'s weight are, indeed, fat asses in your own right.

Just sayin'...

I mean, seriously, if you want to raise his fitness regimen in a legit, well-intentioned speculation about his future career, that's cool. But, have we not progressed past junior high, that we can't mention Sabathia without people making sophomoric fat jokes?


I've lost 90 lbs since February, so I'm sympathetic to the plight of the obese.

That being said, "fat" pitchers don't have good track records of staying healthy and retaining their skills into their thirties. Sabathia has been overweight his entire career, and that does not augur well for his future arm health.

Physically, Sabathia is like Chris Bosio, a guy with good stuff and good numbers who fell apart all at once. Bosio never got control of his weight, either, and while Sabathia is much better, he's the same type of pitcher.

On the other hand, if Sabathia can perform for 5-6 more years like the last 2, he'll make the HOF, possibly even if he fails to win 20. I just don't think Sabathia is going to have 506 more "star" years unless he gets control of his physical condition.

[Cougar]

He's got nearly 1400 strikeouts, and he won't turn 30 until July 2010!

His size is a concern, but to date he has been exceptionally durable -- his lowest seasonal IP total since his rookie year is 192.7.

Similar Pitchers through Age 27

Compare Stats

1. Dave McNally (939)
2. Greg Maddux (934)
3. Ken Holtzman (931)
4. Denny McLain (931)
5. Dennis Eckersley (931) *
6. Alex Fernandez (917)
7. Lefty Gomez (917) *
8. Milt Pappas (916)
9. Carlos Zambrano (914)
10. Steve Carlton (914) *

Nice company. Alex Fernandez is a cautionary tale...so is McLain, who had severe arm troubles to go with his moral failings (his career might have flamed out even if he were an Eagle Scout). But Maddux, Carlton, Gomez, Eck, McNally, Pappas, and Holtzman are pretty encouraging. (Of course Eck's HOF status is not predicated on his early years...) Zambrano is a similar case.

[SABR Matt]

Most of the posters on this board live in America, where obesity is a full-fledged epidemic. Many of us are also quite familiar with statistical analysis and probability. Don't think the irony is lost, guys. Although it seems like many posters feel obliged to make the presumed requisite remark about C.C. girth (usually in non-funny, lowest common denominator terms), the most astute of us are laughing, as we are aware that several of you joking about C.C.'s weight are, indeed, fat asses in your own right.

Just sayin'...

I mean, seriously, if you want to raise his fitness regimen in a legit, well-intentioned speculation about his future career, that's cool. But, have we not progressed past junior high, that we can't mention Sabathia without people making sophomoric fat jokes?

digg...depending on how you define "fat-asses"...I would most likely be one of the people you're scolding...but there's an important difference between me and Sabathia. I'm not being paid to be a professional ATHLETE...he is. That means he's expected to look like an athlete. I'm expected to look like a meteorologist...LOL

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Seriously, I'd be more concerned with Sabathia's long term health. Baseball is one thing but later in life having heart trouble could be scary. I have to believe that Sabathia's personal doctor has had talks him about his long term health issues that may come because of his weight problems. Sabathia is young now but he may have major health issues in his 40s-50s if he doesn't get his weight down.

[Fuzzy Bear]

I've lost 90 lbs since February, so I'm sympathetic to the plight of the obese.

That being said, "fat" pitchers don't have good track records of staying healthy and retaining their skills into their thirties. Sabathia has been overweight his entire career, and that does not augur well for his future arm health.

Physically, Sabathia is like Chris Bosio, a guy with good stuff and good numbers who fell apart all at once. Bosio never got control of his weight, either, and while Sabathia is much better, he's the same type of pitcher.

On the other hand, if Sabathia can perform for 5-6 more years like the last 2, he'll make the HOF, possibly even if he fails to win 20. I just don't think Sabathia is going to have 506 more "star" years unless he gets control of his physical condition.


I should emphasize the obvious; Sabathia is a WHOLE LOT better than Bosio.

[digglahhh]

digg...depending on how you define "fat-asses"...I would most likely be one of the people you're scolding...but there's an important difference between me and Sabathia. I'm not being paid to be a professional ATHLETE...he is. That means he's expected to look like an athlete. I'm expected to look like a meteorologist...LOL

I'm over my suggested body weight too - but I don't make jokes about Sabathia's weight.

Sabathia's been one of the best pitchers in the game for a few years now. I'd rather he look like Rich Garces and pitch like Tom Seaver, than look like Terrell Owens and pitch like Rich Garces. He is a top tier athlete - whether looks like one or not.

As for meteorology, you better hit the treadmill my friend. Not to mention the tanning bed and the waxing station - if those on television are any indication of the field at all. I'd rather have to look like an athlete...

Congrats, on the weight loss, Fuzzy. I've been kicking the gym-going up a notch in order to take off some extra weight myself.

[SABR Matt]

I'm not a TV weather man...LOL

I have a great face for radio - hence why I'm getting a Ph.D...I'm a research grade scientist...I won't be earning my shillings pointing to a green screen...I'll be pointing to a white board for new college students. :)

Incidentally...if I hit the tanning bed...I would die of skin cancer. Quite literally. I am albino...so I will always be pale and at risk for skin cancer with overexposure to UV rays.

[digglahhh]

I'm not a TV weather man...LOL

I have a great face for radio - hence why I'm getting a Ph.D...I'm a research grade scientist...I won't be earning my shillings pointing to a green screen...I'll be pointing to a white board for new college students. :)

Just busting your chops a bit, Matt.

I took a class or two with Nicholas Coch in my undergrad days. You may recognize that name. Actually, my girlfriend is into meteorology. Not incredibly seriously, but she finds it extremely interesting and claims that if she ever went back to school for something else, that's what she would study.

[SABR Matt]

I do recognize that name...interesting...

Meteorology is the penultimate applied science. For a full understanding of the weather you need every single scientific discipline that exists. All of them. From Biology to Statistics to Computer Science to Chemistry, geology, physics, astronomy, mathematical theory, social science, communications...everything. Which I think is the primary reason I am most fascinated by the weather puzzle. I consider it the perfect culmination of human knowledge...if we ever learn everything there is to know about the universe...the last thing we'll be sure of is what the weather will be. :) Numerical Weather Prediction...despite its flaws and limitations...is the most complex scientific endeavor EVER undertaken by man. Much harder than sending a man to the moon...much harder than replacing a human heart surgically...much more complicated than unraveling the human genome...the computational requirements, complex theoretical background and integrated scientific theories from every discipline make it the most difficult problem we will ever face in the physical realm. Obviously, there is more complexity in matters of philosophy...but that's not really physical now is it. :)

[Honus Wagner Rules]

I do recognize that name...interesting...

Meteorology is the penultimate applied science. For a full understanding of the weather you need every single scientific discipline that exists. All of them. From Biology to Statistics to Computer Science to Chemistry, geology, physics, astronomy, mathematical theory, social science, communications...everything. Which I think is the primary reason I am most fascinated by the weather puzzle. I consider it the perfect culmination of human knowledge...if we ever learn everything there is to know about the universe...the last thing we'll be sure of is what the weather will be. :) Numerical Weather Prediction...despite its flaws and limitations...is the most complex scientific endeavor EVER undertaken by man. Much harder than sending a man to the moon...much harder than replacing a human heart surgically...much more complicated than unraveling the human genome...the computational requirements, complex theoretical background and integrated scientific theories from every discipline make it the most difficult problem we will ever face in the physical realm. Obviously, there is more complexity in matters of philosophy...but that's not really physical now is it. :)

And here I thought making the perfect peanutbutter and jelly sandwich was impossible. ;)

[SABR Matt]

LOL

Some things in life are just not scientific. :) Like finding that comfortable position in which to sleep that allows you to stay alseep all night and not wake up twice to turn over...or finding that perfect pizza place within delivery range that makes a good pizza at a fair price...or making your date laugh til her sides split. :)

[Paul Wendt]

Meteorology is the penultimate applied science.
[ultimate ?]
For a full understanding of the weather you need every single scientific discipline that exists. All of them. From Biology to Statistics to Computer Science to Chemistry, geology, physics, astronomy, mathematical theory, social science, communications...everything. Which I think is the primary reason I am most fascinated by the weather puzzle. I consider it the perfect culmination of human knowledge...if we ever learn everything there is to know about the universe...the last thing we'll be sure of is what the weather will be. :) Numerical Weather Prediction...despite its flaws and limitations...is the most complex scientific endeavor EVER undertaken by man.
Are you predicting the location and volume of lightning?
Or the social and ecological consequences of wildfires started by lightning?


Obviously, there is more complexity in matters of philosophy...but that's not really physical now is it. :)
Is there any bound on the complexity of numerical this and that? (whether or not it is physical)

A few days ago I read a note on how little computer "scientists" have accomplished in handling the game Go.

Beside the play at Go, or numerical weather prediction, or assessing the bodily health of C.C. Sabathia and advising him as a physician, philosophy is both simple (not complex) and profound.

advising him as a physician?
here I might say, predicting his baseball career as a club manager or a sabrmetrician

[SABR Matt]

In answer to your first two questions...both ideally. We're a long way from reaching the point where we can predict the lovation of every lightning strike, but studies have begun in an attempt to determine the critical physical processes needed (and at what magnitude) to form lightning in convective clouds and that is step one to parameterizing lightning strike frequency in modeled thunderstorms...and a part of the meteorologist's job is to communicate his forecasts in terms that people will understand, including the possible socio-economic impacts of major weather events.

The rest of your post appears to have been written in ancient sumerian because it's definitely not english...care to rephrase?

[Greg Maddux's Biggest Fan]

Just want to see where everybody stands on C.C.'s chances for making the HOF. Things are looking very good for his cause. He won the Cy Young Award in 2007. He was brilliant last year, almost single-handedly getting the Brewers to the playoffs last year going 11-2 with a 1.65 ERA in 130 IP (17-10 ERA 2.70 ERA overall; led MLB in IP). He's also likely to win 18-19 games this year & is currently 8th in ERA. For his career, he's 133-80 / 3.65 ERA / 121 ERA+

He's also signed for another 6 years with the Yankees meaning his chances to pile on wins are high providing he stays healthy of course. And he hasn't even turned 30 years old yet. The cons are his abysmal post season record (small sample size) and potentially expanding weight concerns (pun intended).

[Cougar]

At the risk of being glib, isn't "Maybe" the totally obvious answer?

[ghostofelvis]

i concur with cougar...

maybe and still early...!

[NJRob65]

i concur with cougar...

maybe and still early...!


Agreed, still too early to reasonably discuss. Maybe you should until he's appeared in his tenth seasons and is eligible.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Sabathia has had a start to a career that could lead to 300 wins. He is still very far off from 300 wins of course but at the end of this season he'll have more wins than Greg Maddux and Roger Clemens did through their age 28 seasons. And both of them went way past 300 wins. Sabathia's big body, he's over 300 lbs for sure, could be a hinderance to him as he enters his 30's.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Agreed, still too early to reasonably discuss. Maybe you should until he's appeared in his tenth seasons and is eligible.

Sabathia's 10th season is next season.

[Fuzzy Bear]

I've gone out on a limb and said "yes". Sabathia has had the kind of consistent success to where I think he's a likely HOFer. Despite his size, he's had good health year to year. If he blows out his arm next season, he's toast, but I think he'll have the kind of career that will get him into the HOF when it's all over.

[jjpm74]

Maybe. He needs a couple more years performing at or just below his current level and some additional padding once he loses his 95MPH fastball wouldn't hurt. He is a dominant pitcher, but so were Ron Guidry, Brett Saberhagen, Doc Gooden and many others to this point in their careers only to either fall apart or retire before putting up the kind of career numbers I like to see for a starting pitcher.

[KCGHOST]

He certainly looks to have a real shot at it, but funny things happen to pitchers on the way to the HoF. Maybe.

[MyDogSparty]

I said "Maybe" but only because he's playing in NY otherwise I would have voted "No".

[yankillaz]

It's way too early to tell. But the fact that he will be in pisntripes for 6 more years, than can equal to 110 wins for a pitcher his caliber is of some help. That means that he'll have about 250 wins by age 34, and that bodes well.

BUT:

When you go to the similarity scores on baseball-reference.com, you get that none of his similar pitchers are or were HOF material. Similar thru age 27 are only Steve Carlton and Greg Maddux (i don't count Dennis Eckersley since his HOF numbers came as a reliever).

Who's his most similar pitcher historically? Dave McNally. Excellent pitcher who retired too young. Rings a bell??? Dido for C.C.

That's why it's a maybe.

[futurehalloffamer]

It's way too early to tell. But the fact that he will be in pisntripes for 6 more years, than can equal to 110 wins for a pitcher his caliber is of some help. That means that he'll have about 250 wins by age 34, and that bodes well.

BUT:

When you go to the similarity scores on baseball-reference.com, you get that none of his similar pitchers are or were HOF material. Similar thru age 27 are only Steve Carlton and Greg Maddux (i don't count Dennis Eckersley since his HOF numbers came as a reliever).

Who's his most similar pitcher historically? Dave McNally. Excellent pitcher who retired too young. Rings a bell??? Dido for C.C.

That's why it's a maybe.

Why not include Eckersley? Doesn't this just further prove that his career as a started is underrated? He was even the starting pitcher on an All-Star team.

[Freakshow]

A lot of pitchers have done what CC has done thru their age-28 season. Some made the Hall, some didn't.

Highest ERA+ thru age-28 season, 1600+ IP, 108+ W, 1916-2009

Cnt Player ERA+ W IP From To
+----+-----------------+----+---+------+----+----+
1 Roger Clemens 149 134 1784.1 1984 1991
2 Tom Seaver 147 135 1931 1967 1973
3 Hal Newhouser 138 170 2458.1 1939 1949
4 Bob Feller 137 158 2190.2 1936 1947
5 Juan Marichal 135 130 1722 1960 1966
6 Dizzy Dean 134 141 1812 1930 1938
7 Robin Roberts 131 160 2311 1948 1955
8 Lefty Gomez 130 135 1797.2 1930 1937
9 Bert Blyleven 130 148 2624.2 1970 1979
10 Greg Maddux 130 131 1911 1986 1994
11 Wes Ferrell 128 161 2125.2 1927 1936
12 Jim Palmer 127 129 1866.2 1965 1974
13 Fergie Jenkins 127 115 1743.1 1965 1971
14 Bret Saberhagen 126 113 1758 1984 1992
15 Don Drysdale 126 164 2574.2 1956 1965
16 Eddie Rommel 123 118 1808.2 1920 1926
17 Lon Warneke 123 118 1662 1930 1937
18 Dean Chance 123 115 1900.2 1961 1969
19 C.C. Sabathia 122 133 1858.2 2001 2009
20 Sandy Koufax 121 112 1665.2 1955 1964
21 Mel Harder 121 144 2184.2 1928 1938
22 Sam McDowell 119 122 2109.2 1961 1971
23 Steve Carlton 119 117 1904.2 1965 1973
24 Vida Blue 118 142 2203.2 1969 1978
25 Dwight Gooden 118 154 2128.1 1984 1993
26 Larry French 118 122 2001.1 1929 1936
27 Jim Maloney 118 122 1623.1 1960 1968
28 Waite Hoyt 115 155 2250.2 1918 1928
29 Mel Stottlemyre 114 112 1745.2 1964 1970
30 Jim Kaat 113 114 1778.1 1959 1967

[Paul Wendt]

Sabathia is a very old 28; he'll be 29.2 y.m this month. "Baseball age" groups him with pitchers who are zero to eleven months younger.

[CorduroyCalves]

Maybe?

How can you vote any differently? There's no guarantee he'll keep pitching at the level he has or he could succumb to injury. Now that he's in pinstripes, I hope he falls waaaaay short.

[Brad Harris]

Why not include Eckersley? Doesn't this just further prove that his career as a started is underrated? He was even the starting pitcher on an All-Star team.
So was Jack Armstrong. What does that prove?

[Cougar]

"Jack Armstrong" is a HOF name for a pitcher.

[Freakshow]

Sabathia is a very old 28; he'll be 29.2 y.m this month. "Baseball age" groups him with pitchers who are zero to eleven months younger.Eh, nitpicking. Cut him 8 wins and 100 IP, it doesn't change the picture in any meaningful way.

[yankillaz]

Why not include Eckersley? Doesn't this just further prove that his career as a started is underrated? He was even the starting pitcher on an All-Star team.

Easy my comrade, if Eck would have pitched until 1996 as a starter, he would've been a Jamie Moyer-Tommy John-Charlie Hough type of pitcher at best.

But what made his career HOF worthy was his 10 year tenure as a closer, specially with the A's. He redifined the role in a way even Mo Rivera hasn't.

[538280]

CC has had a great start and could certainly be a HOFer, but he still has a lot more to do. "Maybe" to me is the clear answer here.

I don't think there's anthing at all wrong with saying Eckersley as a starter is underrated. Eck is mostly remembered as a reliever today but when looking at his credentials I think his career as a starter contributes just as much to his HOF worthiness as his career as a reliever. As a relief pitcher he had some great seasons but wasn't always great. His relief career alone IMO would not even really be close to HOF, it would just be a very good career with a 5 year period as one of the best relievers in the game. His career as a starter sets him apart, there he pitched about 2500 innings with a 111 ERA+. He led the league in ERA+ once and had a few years among the best pitchers in baseball. Even if Eck had not been made a reliever I don't think it's out of the question that he could have had a renaissance as a very good starter in the late 80s/early 90s, which could have made him at least close to the HOF, though probably not in.

[BSmile]

He's a very strong maybe at this point.
Still a lot more to prove....

[Biofury]

Yes, the Yankees will buy him an entry.

[dgarza]

He's a very strong maybe at this point.
I agree. Or maybe a weak yes. I went with maybe.

[Captain Cold Nose]

Yes, the Yankees will buy him an entry.

And being a Yankee has worked so well for Mattingly, Guidry, etc.

[Cowtipper]

For the first time in his career, Sabathia led the league in wins. Right now, he seems to be the one current modern pitcher from this generation that has the best shot at 300 wins. I don't know if his big body will be able to hold up that long though.

I'm pretty surprised he ended up doing as well as he did, too, because I remember he struggled earlier in the year.

[Cowtipper]

These can be combined:

http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=93220

[dominik]

Interesting case.
He will have the longevity and the wins in the end to deserve induction, but he never had really dominant seasons.
A 3.62 career ERA is good, but not overwhelming when you consider that he is in his prime.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Interesting case.
He will have the longevity and the wins in the end to deserve induction, but he never had really dominant seasons.
A 3.62 career ERA is good, but not overwhelming when you consider that he is in his prime.

A 3.62 is a good ERA for this era; this isn't the 1960s. :laugh

"Dominance" is relative. Sabathia led the AL in wins in 2008. Last year, Sabathia was traded to the NL in mid-season, and became the first pitcher to lead both leagues (separately) in shutouts. (I don't think that feat has ever been accomplished in MLB history, and isn't likely to ever be accomplished again.) Sabathia won the AL CYA in 2007. If he did these things in the 1960s, he'd have numbers by now that would resemble Dizzy Dean.

I don't think Sabathia would be a HOFer if his career ended today. But I think Sabathia is on a HOF pace, and he would have to pull one of the hugest fadeouts in history, or suffer a career-ending injury, to not make the HOF.

[dominik]

3.62 is good, but he is in his prime. If he has a normal decline phase his career era can well be 4.00 which would be only average.

Still a great pitcher who is on HOF pace, but he never had a seasons like greinke, Pedro, Maddux or other greats. Can still be a HOF guy, but not a first ballot type. Will be likely a close thing.

Adjusting to era he has a 122 ERA+ which I think is about borderline HOF. But his totals will likely push him in, I agree.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

There is a clear dividing line in Sabathia's career. That dividing line is between age 24 and 25. I expect Sabathia to put up 130-160 ERA+ for the next 4-5 years at least. I expect Sabathia to keep dropping his career ERA as well.



AGE ERA ERA+
20 4.39 102
21 4.37 100
22 3.60 122
23 4.12 106
24 4.03 104
25 3.22 140
26 3.21 143
27 2.77 162
28 3.37 133
-----------------
20-24 4.10 105
25-28 3.11 144

[Greg Maddux's Biggest Fan]

I don't think Sabathia would be a HOFer if his career ended today. But I think Sabathia is on a HOF pace, and he would have to pull one of the hugest fadeouts in history, or suffer a career-ending injury, to not make the HOF.

What? He's on a HOF pace but not that much of a sure thing yet. He's still got quite a lot of work to do.

[brett]

Easy my comrade, if Eck would have pitched until 1996 as a starter, he would've been a Jamie Moyer-Tommy John-Charlie Hough type of pitcher at best.

But what made his career HOF worthy was his 10 year tenure as a closer, specially with the A's. He redifined the role in a way even Mo Rivera hasn't.

I think what made Eck special was both. As a reliever he did become the ultimate short save closer if that's what you mean. He took the innings for a save leader down to the 60-80 IP range, versus 120 or so just 5-10 years earlier.

In his last 12 years as an almost exclusive closer he had:

789 IP and a 136 ERA+.

If we double that we get a guy with a little over 1500 IP and a 136 ERA+. That's about dead even between Quizenberry (about 1000/146) and Gossage (about 1800/126) though clearly better than Fingers and Sutter (though who both tended to pitch more innings for their saves which hurts ERA+ a little).

In his 12 starter years he went about 2500/111.

Double that and you get something better than Don Sutton, maybe comparable to Robin Roberts?

It looks like 1/2 Roberts or Sutton, and 1/2 Gossage to me and I don't know if I would rank Gossage ahead of Roberts or Sutton.

[STLCards2]

In his 12 starter years he went about 2500/111.

Double that and you get something better than Don Sutton, maybe comparable to Robin Roberts?

.

Of course we wouldn't double that as his second half (which includes a decline phase) would not probably equal 5,000 IP and a 111 ERA+. I think a Jamie Moyer starter career looks likely.

So I would take half of Jamie Moyer and combine it with half of Bruce Sutter and you have Eck. Still enough to get into the HOF, but not by an overwhelming margain.

[brett]

Of course we wouldn't double that as his second half (which includes a decline phase) would not probably equal 5,000 IP and a 111 ERA+. I think a Jamie Moyer starter career looks likely.

So I would take half of Jamie Moyer and combine it with half of Bruce Sutter and you have Eck. Still enough to get into the HOF, but not by an overwhelming margain.

I don't think Moyer or Sutter should probably be in, but he was better than half of each. It would be like what Moyer did through age 40 plus Sutter's career times 1.5 added on after.

[Paul Wendt]

All that drivel about the "most feared" batter Jim Rice --it was true of pitcher Rich Gossage.


In his last 12 years as an almost exclusive closer he had:

789 IP and a 136 ERA+.

If we double that we get a guy with a little over 1500 IP and a 136 ERA+. That's about dead even between Quizenberry (about 1000/146) and Gossage (about 1800/126) though clearly better than Fingers and Sutter (though who both tended to pitch more innings for their saves which hurts ERA+ a little).
Gossage pitched 409 innings in 207 games during first three seasons as a full-time relief pitcher (which were not consecutive, 1975, 77, 78).
During his last eighteen seasons(!), 1977-94 after he became a full-time relief pitcher without break, he pitched 1224 innings at OPS+ 146. Give him 1975 and it's 1436 ip at 150. Eckersley's half-career in relief clearly falls short of half the latter. Half the former (1224 at 146) may be a close call but it's also less than Gossage accomplished.


In his 12 starter years he went about 2500/111.

Double that and you get something better than Don Sutton, maybe comparable to Robin Roberts?

It looks like 1/2 Roberts or Sutton, and 1/2 Gossage to me and I don't know if I would rank Gossage ahead of Roberts or Sutton.

That argument is a slam dunk regarding Sutton so I don't believe that STLC has a point.

[STLCards2]

That argument is a slam dunk regarding Sutton so I don't believe that STLC has a point.

My point wasn't really about Eck - I just don't think doubling a first half of a career is a good way to ever project an entire career, as the 2nd half is almost universally worse than the first half due to the decline phase being mostly in that second half and the increased chance of missed time/major injuries in the second half. Heck, Eckersley couldn't even avoid lots of missed time and major injuries in the first half of his career. Anything close to 5,000 IP for a career seems dubious ay best. Does anybody really project Albert Pujols to have 700 + homeruns, with 2,200 RBI's, a .334 average with a 172 OPS+ after 18 years? Of course not.

Yeah, Eck could have been Sutton (5,000 IP and a near 110 ERA+) if he started his whole career, but he couldn't have had much of a decline phase to do so.

[brett]

All that drivel about the "most feared" batter Jim Rice --it was true of pitcher Rich Gossage.


Gossage pitched 409 innings in 207 games during first three seasons as a full-time relief pitcher (which were not consecutive, 1975, 77, 78).
During his last eighteen seasons(!), 1977-94 after he became a full-time relief pitcher without break, he pitched 1224 innings at OPS+ 146. Give him 1975 and it's 1436 ip at 150. Eckersley's half-career in relief clearly falls short of half the latter. Half the former (1224 at 146) may be a close call but it's also less than Gossage accomplished.



Thanks, you've reminded me about Gossage excluding is early years before. I should remember. Just a few years as a starter can dominate a pitcher's career stats.

If we double either Eck's time as a starter (5000/111) or as a reliever (1400+/136) he probably looks better to me than if we take his combined rates (3200/116).

[PVNICK]

My point wasn't really about Eck - I just don't think doubling a first half of a career is a good way to ever project an entire career, as the 2nd half is almost universally worse than the first half due to the decline phase being mostly in that second half and the increased chance of missed time/major injuries in the second half. Heck, Eckersley couldn't even avoid lots of missed time and major injuries in the first half of his career. Anything close to 5,000 IP for a career seems dubious ay best. Does anybody really project Albert Pujols to have 700 + homeruns, with 2,200 RBI's, a .334 average with a 172 OPS+ after 18 years? Of course not.

Yeah, Eck could have been Sutton (5,000 IP and a near 110 ERA+) if he started his whole career, but he couldn't have had much of a decline phase to do so.
The only problem with that is Eck was on the way down and had been for about 5 years when he was switched to the pen. After ten seasons Sutton was still one of the best ptichers in the NL and would stay that way for another 5 or so seasons even winning an ERA title in 1980.

[STLCards2]

The only problem with that is Eck was on the way down and had been for about 5 years when he was switched to the pen. After ten seasons Sutton was still one of the best ptichers in the NL and would stay that way for another 5 or so seasons even winning an ERA title in 1980.

Agreed- which is why doubling Eck's starter numbers is questionalble like I said. I see no reason to believe that based on his accumulating injuries, numbers over the previous 3-4 seasons before closing, and natural decline projections most every player has once they get past 30, that he would have anything near 5,000 IP, and if he did, that his ERA+ would not drop.

As purely hypothetical, if Eck could double his starter career, he would be pretty similar to John, Kaat, and Sutton. In that regard, Brett is right on.

[Domenic]

I think some significantly overstate the issue of Sabathia's weight. While there is always a chance that he could eat himself out of the league, there were quite a few heavy pitchers that had productive careers - David Wells and Curt Schilling come to mind.

[Paul Wendt]

My point wasn't really about Eck - I just don't think doubling a first half of a career is a good way to ever project an entire career, as the 2nd half is almost universally worse than the first half due to the decline phase being mostly in that second half and the increased chance of missed time/major injuries in the second half.
brett didn't project Eckersley's career as a starting pitcher. He argued that one half of Eckersley's career is better than half of Sutton's and the other half of Eck's is better than half of Gossage's.
--neither the better half nor the worse half of Sutton's career divided chronologically,
but half of Sutton's aggregate achievement
--neither the better half nor the worse half of Gossage's careers divided chronologically,
but half of Gossage's aggregate achievement

[PVNICK]

brett didn't project Eckersley's career as a starting pitcher. He argued that one half of Eckersley's career is better than half of Sutton's and the other half of Eck's is better than half of Gossage's.
--not the better half of the worst half of Sutton's or Gossage's careers divided chronologically but half of what Sutton's or Gossage's aggregate achievement.
You know what I might buy that. 2500/111 for Eck v. 2800/110 for Sutton through age 31 and then Eck whups Goose from age 32 on in that Goose was 573 @ 114. I still think the Sutton half is the worse argument if only that Eck seemed done, but I've already said that.

[dominik]

Isn't this thread about CC?:)

[brett]

You know what I might buy that. 2500/111 for Eck v. 2800/110 for Sutton through age 31 and then Eck whups Goose from age 32 on in that Goose was 573 @ 114. I still think the Sutton half is the worse argument if only that Eck seemed done, but I've already said that.

You're still missing the point a little. Ages don't matter. Sutton and Gossage are hall of famers, and although they were both close to my hall of fame borderline, Eck did a) half of what Sutton did and b) half of what Goose did (more or less).

Purely as a reliever Gossage had a 137* ERA+ and 1556 2/3 IP.

(*assumes the same league offensive setting in all years)

[Captain Cold Nose]

Gossage, Eck and Sutton are not the focus of this thread. Please bring it home.

[brett]

Well, CC will basically have to take his current career numbers and double them both to a) get into the hall and b) deserve to get into the hall.

If he want's to get there quicker he will need to do better than 130-140 ERA+ seasons. He'll need a couple of monsters to cut that down.

It funny for a guy that was pitching 180 at age 20, but he's either gonna have to make it to 38-40 or hit a new peak level.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Well, CC will basically have to take his current career numbers and double them both to a) get into the hall and b) deserve to get into the hall.

If he want's to get there quicker he will need to do better than 130-140 ERA+ seasons. He'll need a couple of monsters to cut that down.

It funny for a guy that was pitching 180 at age 20, but he's either gonna have to make it to 38-40 or hit a new peak level.

Sabathia had a 162 ERA+ in 2008. I think you are underestimating Sabathia's chances. Through his age 28 season (2009) he has more wins than Greg Maddux and Roger Clemens did at the same age. Obviously, Sabathia hasn't been as good as those two guys in his 20's but both Clemens and Maddux went way past 300 wins. I see Sabathia more of the Gaylord Perry level of pitcher.

[brett]

Sabathia had a 162 ERA+ in 2008. I think you are underestimating Sabathia's chances. Through his age 28 season (2009) he has more wins than Greg Maddux and Roger Clemens did at the same age. Obviously, Sabathia hasn't been as good as those two guys in his 20's but both Clemens and Maddux went way past 300 wins. I see Sabathia more of the Gaylord Perry level of pitcher.

We've been spoiled by guys who pitched to age 39-43 though.

Double CC and he has a little over 3700.

He'd have to make it to 44 to rack up Perryesque IPs

[Honus Wagner Rules]

We've been spoiled by guys who pitched to age 39-43 though.

Double CC and he has a little over 3700.

He'd have to make it to 44 to rack up Perryesque IPs

I didn't say Sabathia will pitch as many innings as Perry but that he seems to be about the same quality of pitcher as Perry. Plus, Sabathia's got more 76 more wins than Perry had at this point of his career.

[penneyAA]

It's been well documented that modern pitchers taking a regular turn in the bigs at 20 years old don't do much after they turn 30 (Blyleven aside). Plus the dude's fat. I like CC but I'd be shocked if he wins 50 games in his thirties. At least the Yankees have an out clause after year 3 of the contract.

[Second Base Coach]

The biggest step forward he took towards the Hall of Fame was joining the Yankees. He has a ring, now he needs about 250 wins and pocket full of Cy Young votes. Not awards, he already has one. He does not have to win one in the future, just be good enough to be in the discussion, like he has been the last three years.

There has been some talk that he will have a great HOF case if he were to just double what he has now. He could very well do that. He's not even 30 years old... so 270 wins is NOT out of reach. But his three highest seasonal innings pitched totals have come in the last three years. He's gone from a sub-200 innings pitched guy up to 240 per season (plus the post season).

That is the one hazard that comes with the benefit of being a Yankee.

I could not help but notice his comps are Dave McNally and Denny McLain. Just goes to show... youneverknow.

[dominik]

He will get in when he can pitch till his late 30s.

Due to playing with the yanks he will get tons of wins and he is very consistent and has no real bad seasons.

Of course he has no real dominating seasons like a koufax or pedro, and he as never really the best pitcher of the league, but based on a consistently good performance and totals he should get in, but of course he needs to keep that pace till 35 or so

[nyykan_t]

It's been well documented that modern pitchers taking a regular turn in the bigs at 20 years old don't do much after they turn 30 (Blyleven aside). Plus the dude's fat. I like CC but I'd be shocked if he wins 50 games in his thirties. At least the Yankees have an out clause after year 3 of the contract.
David Wells won 138 games in his thirties, then won 54 games in his forties.

[penneyAA]

True, but Wells never really got rolling as a starter until he was older than CC is right now. He never had the wear on his arm in his twenties like CC has had. Very similar pitchers though, rotund lefties with super consistent deliveries. As long as their arm is able to go above their head they usually pitched well.

[nyykan_t]

True, but Wells never really got rolling as a starter until he was older than CC is right now. He never had the wear on his arm in his twenties like CC has had. Very similar pitchers though, rotund lefties with super consistent deliveries. As long as their arm is able to go above their head they usually pitched well.
Fair enough. I just think that it's unfair to say that he won't be a HOFer because of his weight.

[Brad Harris]

Fair enough. I just think that it's unfair to say that he won't be a HOFer because of his weight.
It didn't stop Babe Ruth ;)

[stejay]

at this pace, yes. I think another Cy Young and maybe another ring wouldnt harm. He is at the right ballclub if he wants to become a pitching legend