Assume Oswalt retires after 2011

[Gregory Pratt]

which is his stated desire: to retire after his contract is up, at the end of the 2011 season.

Would you vote for his enshrinement in the Hall of Fame?

Right now, he has a .668 winning percentage, 129 wins, 64 losses, a 139 ERA+ and a 3.13 career earned run average. Let's give him a conservative 50 more wins over the next three seasons and assume he has few losses, as usual, and a typical Oswalt-ERA. Let's also assume that he does not win a Cy Young Award over the next few years, but finishes high in the voting as usual.

Oswalt is, clearly, a dominant pitcher. He is always amongst the league's best, but has never won a Cy Young Award. His counting stats would be quite short -- not even two hundred wins -- but his rate-stats are pretty good.

Roy Oswalt is my favorite pitcher in baseball, along with Roy Halladay, and so I'd vote for him despite knowing that he probably shouldn't have hung the spikes up so soon because his stats aren't quite there yet. I acknowledge his problems -- I'm just a homer!

That said, how would you vote?

(On a related but not entirely relevant note, I really hope he changes his mind when the time comes, and keeps on pitching, but who knows.)

[philipthegreat]

His rate stats might be excellent but I would never put in a player with only 129 wins. No one is going to get with 129 wins because no one wins 25 games anymore.

[jjpm74]

If he were to have 3 amazing years, yes regardless of whether he gets to 200 wins. He does need a few more great seasons to get there, though.

I doubt he'll retire at 34 years old, though. Money talks.

[Otis Nixon's Bodyguard]

Like you, I hope Oswalt sticks around after his contract is up. He is clearly on a HOF track right now, but pitchers of his caliber are expected to pitch for 15 seasons or so. Barring a colossal collapse, hanging around for that long would land him in the HOF. If he were to retire after 2011, however, he would be an interesting case. I'm of the opinion that he has been the second best pitcher of the new millenium so far, behind Johan Santana, but ahead of Halladay, Sabathia, etc. Brandon Webb has come on strong recently, but isn't as far into his career as the others. Oswalt has never had a bad season, and there's something to be said for that. His rate stats also compare favorably to most HOF pitchers across the board. Working against him would be the fact that he never won a Cy Young or been considered the best pitcher in baseball, and, obviously, his short career and weak counting numbers. What you'd have would be a guy with 175 wins, a .667 winning percentage, an ERA+ of 135-140, 2,200 innings, and no hardware. The closest thing to that is Sandy Koufax. As you all know, Koufax took a very different route to get there than Oswalt would, and, as a result, has lots of hardware. I think that makes a big difference to the voters. I can't make a prediction as to how this hypothetical Roy Owalt would actually fare, but he'd get my vote.

[Gregory Pratt]

His rate stats might be excellent but I would never put in a player with only 129 wins. No one is going to get with 129 wins because no one wins 25 games anymore.

Now that you've established what you'd never do, how about you do something that in this case you never did and re-read the first post.

[bambambaseball]

Hes there for me already.

[AstrosFan]

How is 50 wins over the next three years a conservative estimate? He won 46 the previous three, and the Astros will probably be rebuilding soon. I consider that win total very optimistic. For Oswalt to make it to the Hall with under 200 wins, he'd probably need to break off multiple Cy Young award seasons or three straight 20 win campaigns. The only post WWII starter to make it with under 200 wins is Koufax, who won three Cy Youngs and an MVP.

[Cowtipper]

Are there rumors that he's thinking about quitting after 2011?

[Gregory Pratt]

Are there rumors that he's thinking about quitting after 2011?

[Assume Oswalt retires after 2011] which is his stated desire: to retire after his contract is up, at the end of the 2011 season.

Would you vote for his enshrinement in the Hall of Fame?

Right now, he has a .668 winning percentage, 129 wins, 64 losses, a 139 ERA+ and a 3.13 career earned run average. Let's give him a conservative 50 more wins over the next three seasons and assume he has few losses, as usual, and a typical Oswalt-ERA. Let's also assume that he does not win a Cy Young Award over the next few years, but finishes high in the voting as usual.

Oswalt is, clearly, a dominant pitcher. He is always amongst the league's best, but has never won a Cy Young Award. His counting stats would be quite short -- not even two hundred wins -- but his rate-stats are pretty good.

Roy Oswalt is my favorite pitcher in baseball, along with Roy Halladay, and so I'd vote for him despite knowing that he probably shouldn't have hung the spikes up so soon because his stats aren't quite there yet. I acknowledge his problems -- I'm just a homer!

That said, how would you vote?

(On a related but not entirely relevant note, I really hope he changes his mind when the time comes, and keeps on pitching, but who knows.)

That answers your question: no, there aren't "rumors." There's what he has said. And to preempt the next question, here's one of I'm sure several stories (http://sports.espn.go.com/espnmag/story?section=magazine&id=3673258&campaign=rsssrch&source=buster_olney) about it.

[dgarza]

Right now, he has a .668 winning percentage, 129 wins, 64 losses, a 139 ERA+ and a 3.13 career earned run average. Let's give him a conservative 50 more wins over the next three seasons and assume he has few losses, as usual, and a typical Oswalt-ERA. Let's also assume that he does not win a Cy Young Award over the next few years, but finishes high in the voting as usual.

Given these stipulations, I think he should be in myself, but just barely clearing the fence.

I think he would still have a hard time getting in by the voters. The lack of a 12 year career gets in the way.

Currently at around 1600 IP, Oswalt looks like these pitchers (perhaps a little better) when they where around 1600+ IP :


Sim Player From To Yrs W L WL% ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA+
+---+--------------------+---------+--+---+---+-----+-----+----+---+---+---+---+---+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+
Roy Oswalt 2001-2008 8 129 64 .668 3.13 253 241 5 15 6 0 1622.0 1573 612 564 135 370 1335 139
Harry Brecheen 1940-1951 10 121 74 .621 2.88 267 211 41 118 24 15 1690.0 1527 611 541 98 477 803 134
Sal Maglie 1945-1957 9 116 55 .678 3.08 286 219 31 91 25 14 1646.7 1518 641 563 152 528 834 130


Oswalt would really HAVE TO maintain or increase if he was ONLY going to stick it out for 11 seasons/<2300 IP.
Brecheen and Maglie did not last much longer. That was their lot (they were older, too). What will the younger Oswalt's be?

[Cowtipper]

That answers your question: no, there aren't "rumors." There's what he has said. And to preempt the next question, here's one of I'm sure several stories (http://sports.espn.go.com/espnmag/story?section=magazine&id=3673258&campaign=rsssrch&source=buster_olney) about it.

Didn't even see that, sorry.

Also, no need to give so much attitude. It's a simple mistake.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Per 162 games, Oswalt averages 17-8 W-L record.

Hmmmmmm . . . A 180-90 record with an ERA approximately 1.00 below league (assuming a little dropoff from now; he's 1.10 below league at this writing). Interesting.

I would vote for Oswalt under those circumstances. I don't know if I'd vote for him if he were 150-80, or something like that. But he's on a Ron Guidry pace, and he's a little better than Guidry, year to year. I'd support Oswalt, yes, if (and only if) he puts up three more good seasons. I won't support him if he goes into the tank next year and hands on.

[Gregory Pratt]

Didn't even see that, sorry.

Also, no need to give so much attitude. It's a simple mistake.

I gave you a thorough response. No more and no less.

[Bravesfan1984]

Right now no but if he keeps playing like this he will defintly be in the HOF

[baseball junkie]

Despite what King LeBron has been up to of late, the best way to drive up the price of a commodity is to tell the buyers they can't have it.

Could that be the play?

Is Oswalt actually going to walk away if several teams offer him $150 to 175 million?

I'm not buying that.

BTW ..... Comparing Oswalt to Koufax is blasphemy! One retired because he could barely move his arm without being in extreme pain. The other is just going to hang it up because he's ..... bored?

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Right now no but if he keeps playing like this he will defintly be in the HOF

What? No Cy Youngs for Oswalt, Just one 20-win season so far. Oswalt has 1/2 of Mussina's career so far. :dismay:

Through age 30
Mussina 136-66
Oswalt 129-64

[Bravesfan1984]

What? No Cy Youngs for Oswalt, Just one 20-win season so far. Oswalt has 1/2 of Mussina's career so far. :dismay:

Through age 30
Mussina 136-66
Oswalt 129-64

Oswalt already has two 20 win seasons Mussina did not get a 20 win season till last year. Oswalt has more top 5 cy young finishes in his first 8 years then Mussina did. Housten has not been a great team. Here are Houstens ranks in the NL

2008
Runs 11th
Hits 9th
Obp 11th
Slugging 7th
Home Runs 8th
BA 6th


2007
Runs 13th
Hits 11th
Home Runs 10th
Slugging 10th
BA 12th
OBP 10th

2006
Runs 12th
Hits 15th
Home Run 8th
Batting Average 16th
OBP 9th
Slugging 15th

2005
Runs 11th
Hits 14th
Home Runs 9th
Batting Average 13th
OBP 12th
Slugging 11th

This is the Yankees and how they rank in the AL

2008
Runs 7th
Hits 5th
Home Runs 4th
Batting Average 4th
OBP 3rd
Slugging 6th

2007
Runs 1rst
Hits 1rst
Batting Average 1rst
Home Runs 1rst
OBP 1rst
Slugging 1rst

2006
Runs 1rst
Hitst 1rst
Home Runs 2nd
Batting Average 2nd
OBP 1rst
Slugging 3rd

2005
Runs 2nd
Hits 2nd
Home Runs 2nd
BA 2nd
OBP 3nd
Slugging 4th

Mussina was getting a lot of help from his hitters where Oswalt was not.

[KCGHOST]

I don't know. I would really struggle with a starting pitcher hanging them up with only 2300 IP's and voting him in the HoF. Oswalt's quality and consistency have been of a very high order.

[Domenic]

If Oswalt can reel off three seasons that are equivalent to his production from 2005 to 2007, I could probably get behind his candidacy for the Hall of Fame. I would certainly see his case as being borderline, but an eleven-year career of ace-level performance would be very hard to argue against.

To drift a bit, five more years of Oswalt-like production would create a no-brainer Hall of Famer, at least in my mind.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Oswalt already has two 20 win seasons Mussina did not get a 20 win season till last year. Oswalt has more top 5 cy young finishes in his first 8 years then Mussina did. Housten has not been a great team. Here are Houstens ranks in the NL

2008
Runs 11th
Hits 9th
Obp 11th
Slugging 7th
Home Runs 8th
BA 6th


2007
Runs 13th
Hits 11th
Home Runs 10th
Slugging 10th
BA 12th
OBP 10th

2006
Runs 12th
Hits 15th
Home Run 8th
Batting Average 16th
OBP 9th
Slugging 15th

2005
Runs 11th
Hits 14th
Home Runs 9th
Batting Average 13th
OBP 12th
Slugging 11th

This is the Yankees and how they rank in the AL

2008
Runs 7th
Hits 5th
Home Runs 4th
Batting Average 4th
OBP 3rd
Slugging 6th

2007
Runs 1rst
Hits 1rst
Batting Average 1rst
Home Runs 1rst
OBP 1rst
Slugging 1rst

2006
Runs 1rst
Hitst 1rst
Home Runs 2nd
Batting Average 2nd
OBP 1rst
Slugging 3rd

2005
Runs 2nd
Hits 2nd
Home Runs 2nd
BA 2nd
OBP 3nd
Slugging 4th

Mussina was getting a lot of help from his hitters where Oswalt was not.

That's meaningless. As usual your arguments are poorly thought out. That's just three four years out of Mussina's 18 year career. You seem to forget Mussina pitched more games for the Orioles and those Orioles teams had far less offense. Also, Mussina had to pitch against much better competition and against the DH. As for Cy Young voting who has Oswalt had yo go up against? Mussina had to go up against Martinez, Clemens, Santana, Holladay.

And check this out for stats. Through age 30 Mussina had many more complete games and shutouts.

Through age 30
Mussina 39 CG - 14 SHO
Oswalt 15 CG - 6 SHO

So you are being very inconsistent for supporting Oswalt and not Mussina for the HoF. Through age 30 Oswalt is no better than Mussina.

[philipthegreat]

Now that you've established what you'd never do, how about you do something that in this case you never did and re-read the first post.

Thanks for the correction. I fell like an idiot

Say Oswald has 179 wins I would still not put him the hall of fame. It would take three utterly ridiculous years for me to say yes.

[Fuzzy Bear]

BTW ..... Comparing Oswalt to Koufax is blasphemy! One retired because he could barely move his arm without being in extreme pain. The other is just going to hang it up because he's ..... bored?

While I love Sandy Koufax, and I think he's one of the 2-3 greatest pitchers of all time (on peak value), I would point out that Oswalt never spent years in the back of the rotation struggling as Koufax did. I understand that some of this had to do with bonus rules of the time that required a "bonus baby" be kept on the MLB roster for 2 years, but, Oswalt hit the ground running, while Koufax took 6 years to establish himself as any kind of a star.

[Paul Wendt]

At 50 wins during the next seasons, with "as usual" high ERA+ and winning percentage,
Roy Oswalt will be a "no-brain" Hall of Fame candidate.

which is his stated desire: to retire after his contract is up, at the end of the 2011 season.

Would you vote for his enshrinement in the Hall of Fame?

Right now, he has a .668 winning percentage, 129 wins, 64 losses, a 139 ERA+ and a 3.13 career earned run average. Let's give him a conservative :rolleyes: -Ed.
50 more wins over the next three seasons and assume he has few losses, as usual, and a typical Oswalt-ERA. Let's also assume that he does not win a Cy Young Award over the next few years, but finishes high in the voting as usual.

You mean 40 wins, right?
Here is a question for the peanut gallery.
Is 40 wins a "conservative" projection for 2009-2010-2011?

[henrich]

At 50 wins during the next seasons, with "as usual" high ERA+ and winning percentage,
Roy Oswalt will be a "no-brain" Hall of Fame candidate.


You mean 40 wins, right?
Here is a question for the peanut gallery.
Is 40 wins a "conservative" projection for 2009-2010-2011?

I'm not sure about conservative, but a fair estimate is the way i would word it. I'd vote no on Oswalt if he retires following the 2011 season. He's not there for me yet. I do look at the weight of counting stats though.

[Otis Nixon's Bodyguard]

BTW ..... Comparing Oswalt to Koufax is blasphemy! One retired because he could barely move his arm without being in extreme pain. The other is just going to hang it up because he's ..... bored?

If Oswalt retires after 2011 with 175 wins, a .667 winning percentage, a 135 ERA+, and 2,300 innings pitched, it will not be at all blasphemous to compare him to Sandy Koufax. I consider Sandy Koufax to be one of the all-time great pitchers and mean no disrespect to him. The fact of the matter is that they would each be elite pitchers with short careers. Oswalt will have achieved a similar career record to Koufax in a very different way, but an impressive way nonetheless. Few have dominated like Koufax did, and Oswalt is not one of them. That goes without saying and that goes a long way in Koufax's favor. However, Oswalt will have been a more consistent pitcher than Koufax. The reasons aside, Koufax spent his first six seasons as a league average pitcher. Oswalt has never been anything short of exceptional. To be eight years into your career and have your worst season include 17 wins and a 120 ERA+ is quite an achievement. The reason Koufax retired and the reason Oswalt says he might retire are not all that relevant (to me at least). The bottom line is the body of work they each (will have) left us with. It's certainly interesting to think about what Sandy Koufax would've done had he not had arm trouble. I have no doubt he would've been great, but that can't be used to determine his place in history because it didn't happen. Guys like Greg Maddux and Randy Johnson had comparably dominant four year runs, and piled many more All-Star caliber seasons on top of that. Regardless of why Oswalt retires, his numbers are what we will have to judge him by. If he continues on his current pace for three more years, he will retire as a comparable pitcher to Sandy Koufax in terms of career value. If you'd prefer that I compare Oswalt to someone like Ron Guidry because his career followed a more similar trajectory to that of Guidry's, then that's fine. Although I think Oswalt would be a notch above Guidry, Guidry and Koufax have a similarity score of 905.

[Cougar]

It's almost impossible to answer this question.

Taking the case where he's 180-90 with an ERA 1 point below average -- yeah, he goes in.

Taking the case where he's 168-102 -- still pretty good, with an ERA 0.6 points above average...um, probably not.

It depends a lot on how he gets there in both cases. Scenario B with a Cy and a postseason run is probably better than Scenario A without that.

[Gregory Pratt]

The other is just going to hang it up because he's ..... bored?

Your question mark indicates confusion. The subtext of your final sentence (and of the paragraph it caps off) shows this, too. I recommend you re-read the article to better understand it. If he hangs it up, it won't be because he's "bored," or at least it isn't that simple, and "bored" is not used in the common way, as in, "I'm bored. Let's go to the movies!" No.

[Bravesfan1984]

That's meaningless. As usual your arguments are poorly thought out. That's just three four years out of Mussina's 18 year career. You seem to forget Mussina pitched more games for the Orioles and those Orioles teams had far less offense. Also, Mussina had to pitch against much better competition and against the DH. As for Cy Young voting who has Oswalt had yo go up against? Mussina had to go up against Martinez, Clemens, Santana, Holladay.

And check this out for stats. Through age 30 Mussina had many more complete games and shutouts.

Through age 30
Mussina 39 CG - 14 SHO
Oswalt 15 CG - 6 SHO

So you are being very inconsistent for supporting Oswalt and not Mussina for the HoF. Through age 30 Oswalt is no better than Mussina.

Okay lets look at Baltimore and see how they rank

Baltimore 1991
Runs 10th
Hits 7th
Home Runs 3rd
Batting Average 11th
OBP 11th
Slugging 4th

Baltimore 1992
Runs 8th
Hits 8th
Home Runs 6th
Batting Average 8th
OBP 3rd
Slugging 5th

Baltimore 1993
Runs 6th
Hits 7th
Home Runs 8th
Batting Average 5th
OBP 4th
Slugging 5th

Baltimore 1994
Runs 7th
Hits 9th
Home Runs 4th
Batting Average 6th
OBP 6th
Slugging 6th

Baltimore 1995
Runs 9th
Hits 13th
Home Runs 5th
Batting Average 11th
OBP 8th
Slugging 6th

Even playing tough teams they did better then Housten playing in an easier divison

Here is Baltimore record through the years
1991 67-95
1992 89-73
1993 85-77
1994 63-49
1995 71-73
1996 99-74
1997 98-64
1998 79-83
1999 78-84
2000 74-88

They were no means a great team but they had some years well over 500 and even most of there losing seasons were barely under 500 so Mussina did not play on horrible teams.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Here is Baltimore record through the years
1991 67-95
1992 89-73
1993 85-77
1994 63-49
1995 71-73
1996 99-74
1997 98-64
1998 79-83
1999 78-84
2000 74-88

They were no means a great team but they had some years well over 500 and even most of there losing seasons were barely under 500 so Mussina did not play on horrible teams.
And Oswalt hasn't played on horrible teams either. I know you haven't bothered to look at the Astros records. Since Oswalt has been an Astro, the Astros have had ONE LOSING SEASON.

2001 93-69 (NL Central champ)
2002 84-78 (2nd place)
2003 87-75 (2nd, 1 GB)
2004 92-70 (Wild Card)
2005 89-73 (National League champ)
2006 82-80 (2nd, 1.5 GB)
2007 73-89
2008 86-75 (3rd)

From 2001-08 the Astros are 686-609 (.530) with 1 NL pennant, a division title, two wildcards and three other 2nd place finishes.

[The Splendid Splinter]

From 2001-08 the Astros are 686-609 (.530) with 1 NL pennant, a division title, two wildcards and three other 2nd place finishes.

Yeah.. just wanted to add that Mussina's years with Baltimore, Baltimore were 803-749 which is .517.

[matstars]

I just can't see Oswalt getting into the HOF with fewer than 200 wins. If he hits the 200 win mark I think it will be likely.

Look at his ERA and K's compared to the league starter average (it's the average of players who qualified for the Cy Young - charts are missing 2008 data) - they sure are signs of dominance - but if you look at his batting average against - it's fairly pedestrian compared to the league starter average.

If he hits 200 - then he'd get my vote, but he wont likely do that before 2011.

It's a tough call.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

matstars,


Those are some nice looking line graghs. :thumbsup:

[Fuzzy Bear]

I just can't see Oswalt getting into the HOF with fewer than 200 wins. If he hits the 200 win mark I think it will be likely.

Look at his ERA and K's compared to the league starter average (it's the average of players who qualified for the Cy Young - charts are missing 2008 data) - they sure are signs of dominance - but if you look at his batting average against - it's fairly pedestrian compared to the league starter average.

Whether or not a pitcher gets to 200 wins is a big deal in making the HOF. The starting pitchers that don't have 200 wins that are in the HOF are either (A) peak value superstars (Dizzy Dean, Sandy Koufax, maybe Addie Joss), or (B) guys that were "famous" while active and had "big" seasons (Lefty Gomez). It also helps if their careers are not truncated (e. g. David Cone) and if they have some hardware (MVP, Cy Young Award).

One of the factors working in Oswalt's favor is the overall decrease in total wins by starting pitchers; it is hardly unusual for an entire league to have no pitcher win 20 games in a single season. John Smoltz led the NL in victories in 2006 in a 6 way tie for first place, so it's entirely possible that Oswalt will get some unexpected black ink, even if he never wins 20 again. Then, too, by the time Oswalt is up for the HOF vote, the BBWAA will view 180 wins as the new 200.

[Gregory Pratt]

Good discussion.

[STLCards2]

matstars:

1.Nice graph

2.Welcome

3. BAA is a how stat, not a what stat. A lot of great pitchers were horrible at certain how stats: ryan had his walks, Roberts and Blyleven had their homeruns allowed, Glavine and Palmer had their K rates, Oswalt has a relatively high BAA rate. Despite that, he still prevents runs at a 40+% rate better than contemp pitchers. Why? He has a better than average K rate, a great BB rate, and a very good HR/9 rate. His LOB% rates are above average, gets his share of double playes, and fares well against the running game. If he had a spectactular BAA, his ERA+ would be off the charts. When your only chart emphasises the one area of run prevention which Oswalt is not particulaly good at, it looks like cherry-picking.

4. BAA is defensive dependent. Depending on Oswalt's defense support, his "true" BAA is in reality not the same as his actual BAA anyway.

5. If Oswalt is a ERA+ fraud, it will be becasue of very good or very bad defenses. From what I have seen, his ERA+ looks about "right." How he got there (assuming his ERA+ is legit) doesn't really matter much.


6. HOF after 2011? If he can get around 180-90 with an ERA+ around 140 at 2,300 IP, I would put him in my HOF for sure, but I doubt he would get elected.