What about Ichiro???

[bobfeller]

What would Ichiro have to do to make the Hall???

I noticed that nobody seems to include him in their lists of players who might get there.

Personally, I think that he'll get there. He started here when he was like 26 or 28 or whatever, so his major league numbers will never be what they could have been. He'll never get 3000 hits, etc. But if he retires even with 1600-1800 hits, do you think baseball writers will overlook his low major league numbers and add in his success in Japan to justify him as Hall worthy??? I think they will... if for no other reason than he was the first Japanese position player here. He broke ground. So I think he'll be in some day... assuming of course he maintains a Tony Gwynn like average.


What do you think??? Am I crazy? Or is it just too soon?

[Peggin_Maniac]

If he can maintain or come close to what he has done for the next
TEN years, HELL ya he'll be in...Say he plays til he is 40yrs old. If maintain 200 hits a year for 12 yrs its 2400 hits (granted he'll probably not maintain that). But he will get over 2,000 hits easy.

His batting avg. will be very high!!!
BEST ARM IN THE LEAGUE.
One of the best defensive outfielders in the game...
Great speed...

His only pitch Ichiro can't handle very well is the pictch inside...But
if you watch his games (like I do, night in and night out). He starting to get to that pitch.. So when he mastered that pitch (and he will) where to you pitch to this guy?????:waving

[J W]

Hey, maintain his pace, win six more batting titles, be the leading vote getter at the All-Star game and aim for 2500 hits, and he's in.

It's a looong way from that, though; we'll just have to see.

[Etheridge2]

He is a long ways from being there and he can not afford to slip in production at all because he will need a very solid consistant career because as you said due to his late start he won't be able to get any of the milestones

[Steffo]

Yes, but if he keeps up his current productioon he will almost have 2,500 hits despite so little atbats. After he gets there, he's a lock.

[A Satch In Time Whiffs Nine]

If maintain 200 hits a year for 12 yrs its 2400 hits (granted he'll probably not maintain that).

I highly doubt he'll maintain 200 hits for 12 straight years. Wade Boggs had seven straight 200-hit seasons during the early part of his career and if I'm not mistaken, this either tied a record or was a season off from tying it.

Twelve seasons is asking a lot.

[bobfeller]

I highly doubt he'll maintain 200 hits for 12 straight years. Wade Boggs had seven straight 200-hit seasons during the early part of his career and if I'm not mistaken, this either tied a record or was a season off from tying it.

I agree with that. But if he averages, say, 160-175 over the next eight-ten years (reachable if you think he'll get a couple 220-230 hit seasons in there), do you think he's a Hall of Famer at between 1700-2000 hits, considering his impact and success as the first Japanese position player in the United States?

I think so, especially because there will likely be many more Japanese players to follow.... and each will be hailed as the "next Ichiro."

[razors]

Originally posted by bobfeller:
"But if he averages, say, 160-175 over the next eight-ten years (reachable if you think he'll get a couple 220-230 hit seasons in there), do you think he's a Hall of Famer at between 1700-2000 hits...?"


i hope so bobfeller - here's a look at some of his pacific league numbers:


Year Team G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI Avg BB SO SB
1994 OBW 130 546 111 210 41 5 13 54 .385 51 53 29
1995 OBW 130 524 104 179 23 4 25 80 .342 68 52 49
1996 OBW 130 542 104 193 24 4 16 84 .356 56 57 35
1997 OBW 135 536 94 185 31 4 17 91 .345 62 36 39
1998 OBW 135 506 79 181 36 3 13 71 .358 43 35 11
1999 OBW 103 411 80 141 27 2 21 68 .343 45 46 12
2000 OBW 105 395 73 153 22 1 12 73 .387 54 36 21


accepting that the pacific league is a 'minor league' his 1st 7 full years look fairly impressive to me...winning the batting title each of these seven years...(he did have a 159 at bats combined in 92/93 - before he was 21 - but 1994 was his first full year)

i've got to believe that some consideration will be given to these outstanding performances - especially in light of how well he's continued to perform in the states...

whilst for completely different reasons consideration has been given to HOFers that could not play in the 'majors' due to narrow-mindedness, greatness is should be recognized no matter where it is found and the HOF is not exclusively for those that played their entire career in the 'majors - e.g. how many hits did josh gibson have?

i think he's got to keep that level of performance up there but there is NO reason to expect him not to... he averged 177hits a season (averaging 124 games a season) for seasons - that's massive - i.e. an average of 231 hits over a 162 game season, and we know he can do that...

so obviously this guy was not just a 'big fish in a little pond' or a 'one-year-wonder' - he's the real deal HOF material and that's without discussing his defensive abilities...



razors

[razors]

Originally posted by bobfeller:
He'll never get 3000 hits, etc. But if he retires even with 1600-1800 hits, do you think baseball writers will overlook his low major league numbers and add in his success in Japan to justify him as Hall worthy???"



i hope so bobfeller - here's a look at some of his pacific league numbers:


Year Team G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI Avg BB SO SB
1994 OBW 130 546 111 210 41 5 13 54 .385 51 53 29
1995 OBW 130 524 104 179 23 4 25 80 .342 68 52 49
1996 OBW 130 542 104 193 24 4 16 84 .356 56 57 35
1997 OBW 135 536 94 185 31 4 17 91 .345 62 36 39
1998 OBW 135 506 79 181 36 3 13 71 .358 43 35 11
1999 OBW 103 411 80 141 27 2 21 68 .343 45 46 12
2000 OBW 105 395 73 153 22 1 12 73 .387 54 36 21


accepting that the pacific league is a 'minor league' his 1st 7 full years look fairly impressive to me...winning the batting title each of these seven years...(he did have a 159 at bats combined in 92/93 - before he was 21 - but 1994 was his first full year)

i've got to believe that some consideration will be given to these outstanding performances - especially in light of how well he's continued to perform in the states...

whilst for completely different reasons consideration has been given to HOFers that could not play in the 'majors' due to narrow-mindedness, greatness is should be recognized no matter where it is found and the HOF is not exclusively for those that played their entire career in the 'majors - e.g. how many hits did josh gibson have?

i think he's got to keep that level of performance up there but there is NO reason to expect him not to... he averged 177hits a season (averaging 124 games a season) for 7 seasons - that's massive - i.e. an average of 231 hits over a 162 game season, and we know he can do that...

so obviously this guy was not just a 'big fish in a little pond' or a 'one-year-wonder' - he's the real deal HOF material and that's without discussing his defensive abilities and other qualities...



razors

[bobfeller]

whilst for completely different reasons consideration has been given to HOFers that could not play in the 'majors' due to narrow-mindedness, greatness is should be recognized no matter where it is found and the HOF is not exclusively for those that played their entire career in the 'majors - e.g. how many hits did josh gibson have?
Yeah, that's what im thinking. I don't think he necessarily has to maintain super numbers. I think 8-10 solid ml years and he's in first ballot (160-170 hits a year, .300 avg.).... just because of who he is, what he means to baseball, and because of those Japan years.

I don't know where you dug up those stats, razors, but good info. Its nice to see someone from Chicago agrees with me on something. You all were hating me over my Sammy Sosa takes.

[Mulliganfan]

Nope, never ever will he reach HOF numbers.
Similar numbers were put up by Kirby Puckett, early in their careers, but Ichiro will never make HOF status.

[bobfeller]

Similar numbers were put up by Kirby Puckett, early in their careers, but Ichiro will never make HOF status.Why not? That's a conclusion. What's you argument? You gotta back that up. With a guy like Ichiro, you have to look beyond his major league numbers and look to what he means to the game and his success in Japan. You can't just rely on numbers.

The Hall of Fame is not based just on major league numbers. Ichiro is such a phenomenon and such an important person (ultimately) in the history of the game, that he'll be in as long as he doesnt just fall apart.

And Puckett's a Hall of Famer anyway, so you can't say he has similar numbers to a Hall of Famer, then say he's out.

[brewcrew82]

I too have oftened wondered this very question...

I think with abot 2000 hits (on top oh his RoY, MVP (he may still win more), gold gloves, all star selectione etc) Ichiro should be considered seriously for the hall...On top of his ML credentials, he had a stellar career in Japan (the best player over there), he opened the door for other Japanese position players and showed the world that a Japanese player can succeed in the US (and that quality of Japanese baseball was better than minor league calibre).

I hope this makes sanse...its been a LONG day!

[trosmok]

Ichiro is a phenomenal player, and has made a big splash on this side of the Pacific rim. Not since Fred Lynn in '75 has a player garnered both ROY and MVP honors in their first big league season. He doesn't need to pile up milestone numbers that some hall watchers believe to be essential to election. It is far from certain he couldn't possibly fizzle, but if he maintains his stellar performance on the diamond, he will surely be enshrined in Cooperstown. Players don't need to get stats and numbers that end in zero to deserve HOF status, but a few WS and more batting crowns, MVP etc. always look good on the resume.

[A Satch In Time Whiffs Nine]

1994 OBW 130 546 111 210 41 5 13 54 .385 51 53 29

Wow. Am I reading that right? 210 hits in just 130 games? That's pretty damn impressive!

[CardFanNV]

Originally posted by A Satch In Time Whiffs Nine
Wow. Am I reading that right? 210 hits in just 130 games? That's pretty damn impressive!

So is .385. Only three Americans (Carew, Brett, Gwynn) have hit higher since 1941.

[CardFanNV]

Originally posted by CardFanNV
So is .385. Only three Americans (Carew, Brett, Gwynn) have hit higher since 1941.

OOPS!

Make that 4 - some old geezer named Williams hit .388 in 1957 - at the age of 38.

[Mulliganfan]

Originally posted by bobfeller
Why not? That's a conclusion. What's you argument? You gotta back that up. With a guy like Ichiro, you have to look beyond his major league numbers and look to what he means to the game and his success in Japan. You can't just rely on numbers.

The Hall of Fame is not based just on major league numbers. Ichiro is such a phenomenon and such an important person (ultimately) in the history of the game, that he'll be in as long as he doesnt just fall apart.

And Puckett's a Hall of Famer anyway, so you can't say he has similar numbers to a Hall of Famer, then say he's out.

Numbers that pertained to Puckett's when Kirby was, what, 23 or 24?
Ichiro was successful in Japan and came here and broke through at the age of, what, 27 or 28?

The Hall of Fame will base his numbers on what he did HERE, not upon what he did in Japan.

Sadly enough (?), that's probably why Sadaharu Oh, the most prolific home run hitter that baseball has ever seen isn't in the Hall.

He didn't put those great numbers here in the U.S.

I'm of the opinion that the Hall should have a separate category, as they did of the great "Negro Leaguers" to honor those in Japan.

Just my humble opionion, though.

LOVE you statue outside of the Jake, by the way, Feller.;)

[Cougar]

Originally posted by J W
Hey, maintain his pace, win six more batting titles, be the leading vote getter at the All-Star game and aim for 2500 hits, and he's in.

It's a looong way from that, though; we'll just have to see.

Exactly. Way too soon to say.

[bobfeller]

Exactly. Way too soon to say. Well, of course it's too soon. That's the point here, we're speculating.

Mulliganfan, your points are good but I respectfully disagree. I think when the time comes they will take his Japanese numbers into account, right or wrong. The difference between Ichiro and Oh is that Oh never played in America, and it is still the "National" Baseball Hall of Fame, so therefore Oh can't even qualify for consideration. But I think that since Ichiro at least qualifies for consideration, his Japanese success will be looked at, at least in passing in determining whether he truly was one of the greatest baseball players ever to play the game in America. After all, shouldn't that be the relevant question? Thta's not to say they shouldn't look at his American numbers; I just think his stellar Japanese numbers should be used to enhance and support his American numbers as well. If he had come here and flopped, then he should not be considered for enshrinement no matter how great hus numbers were in Asia.

The same thing applies with the Negro Leaguers. The Baseball Hall of Fame is not a Major League Hall of Fame. And each of those men excelled at the highest level they could play at in America. So that's the difference between them and Oh.

[feartheterp03]

I think Ichiro has a very good chance of making it into the Hall becuase of his great speed allowing him to get hits that a normal player couldnt get. For example, in the series with the Atlanta Braves, Ichiro hit a chopper up the middle fielded cleanly by Rafael Furcal, who IMO has one of the best arms in the game for an infielder, guns it to first but not in time. Most players would be out by 10 feet. I think he will get in because of his ability to make something of nothing.

[Zito75]

I think he started his MLB career a little late. He's already 30. He'll have to win some serious batting titles before he can get in.

[razors]

Originally posted by bobfeller:
"Its nice to see someone from Chicago agrees with me on something. You all were hating me over my Sammy Sosa takes."


now, now bobfeller, there are plenty of chicagoans that can't stand sosa (or the flubs of course) - and i've been having a right royal time ribbing his fans...i've never thought the guy was genuine...


cheers,



razors.

[Brad Harris]

Ichiro Suzuki has played 13 professional seasons. Four with Seattle in the American League and 9 with Orix of the Japanese Pacific League. Ichiro has appeared in 4 all-star games (in 4 seasons), became only the second player ever to win both the Rookie of the Year Award and the MVP Award in the same season, won 3 gold gloves, won a batting title, led the league in hits and stolen bases and looks poised to lead the league in batting average and hits again and possibly set the single season hit record (which has stood for 84 years.)

With a month left in the season, Ichiro will certainly be adding to his 10 Black Ink, 43 Gray Ink, 24.0 Hall of Fame Standards and 81.0 Hall of Fame Monitor scores. In addition to leading the league in BA and hits, Ichiro is currently 2nd in on-base percentage and steals. He will certainly contend for the AL MVP Award this year and stands a good chance of winning it were he to collect another 46+ hits.

ESPN keeps tracking a statistic that, I believe, indicates Ichiro will almost certainly have the most hits by any player in a four-year span in at least 50 years? Using Lee Sinin's Sabermetric Baseball Encyclopedia, I can see that right now Ichiro has more hits from his Age27 through Age30 seasons than any player in major leauge history! His 874 (and counting) has surpassed former leader Jesse Burkett and the rest of the top ten on that list (Boggs, Al Simmons, Gehrig, Musial, Rose, Carew, Puckett, Earle Combs, Wee Willie Keeler).

So Ichiro's four-year run (so far) isn't just impressive against the four-year runs of men who were 25 or 26 by the time they'd played 4 years in MLB, but it's impressive against other seasons by men at the same ages too!

Through the end of August this season, Ichiro is averaging the following over every 162 games played:

sports a .337/.382/.446 lifetime BA/OBP/SLG
BA - .337
OBP - .382
SLG - .446
R - 116
SB - 41
H - 235

Here's how that changes if you add in his JPL stats:
BA - .347
OBP - .400
SLG - .490
R - 111
SB - 36
H - 220

I'm not silly enough to think that the level of play in Japan is as high as it is in the American League these days, but I wanted to point out that Suzuki was winning batting titles and MVPs in the Japanese League - he wasn't just another player over there - and in fact looks to have been able to handle major league pitching as early as age 20.

Suzuki has 4 200-hit seasons in the big leagues. Only 32 other people have done that in major league history. (Only 3 of whom have not yet been elected to the Hall of Fame.) Only 10 of those players have fashioned 4 or more 200-hit season consecutively.

If Suzuki follows a normal career path - which means another batting title or 200-hit season is certainly not out of the question - and plays until he's close to 40, do you think voters ought to give consideration to his JPL stats either in terms of the 10-year service time requirement or in terms of his career achievement?

[dgarza]

Although he is the strongest candidate for this question, I guess similar thought can go towards players who started in MLB and then went to Japan and maybe came back to MLB, and also to players who might have spent some time in Latin American countries.

If he plays until near 40, then the question is nearly moot, isn't it?

[Gsteiger-TAG]

If he plays for about 10-12 years and reaches 2.000 hits, 300 stolen bases, and a .320+ career ba, combined with 5 or 6 gg`s, a few batting titles (he should win his second one this year) and the ROY and MVP he already has, I think career wise he has done enough to reach the HoF.

[leecemark]

--If he plays the required 10 years and is close to being a Hall of Famer I would be inclined to give him enough extra credit for his accomplishments in Japan to push him over the top. Obviously if he has 6 more like his first 4 that would be the case. His game is so speed based that being an effective player til 40 seems unlikely. He'll be 36 when he finishes that 10th season. and his best years will almost certainly be behind him. However, assuming he plays at something reasonably close to his current level for most of 10 years, I would support his election. 2,000+ hits starting at age 27 after 7 JPL batting titles seems worthy enough.
--I'm not sure how important that is too him though. His current contract runs through year 7 of his MLB career. I don't think its out of the question that he'll go back to Japan at that point. I'm a Mariner's fan who watches the majority of their games and is pretty up to date on their players . I've never heard him comment on the HOF or his long term plans. Of course, he doesn't really say too much about anything. The only goal he consistently refers to is getting his 200 hits every year. He seems to be doing a pretty good job of achievingthat one.

[Cougar]

I used to be skeptical about Ichiro's Hall chances, but not anymore. Another couple years like this (200 hits, GG, etc.) and in my mind he should be a lock.

Not sure he'd get in if an election were held today, though.

[leecemark]

--Since he needs 6 more seasons to even qualify for the ballot, I'm pretty sure he wouldn't get elected base on current accomplishments. Although, I guess that raises anothter question. If he went back and played in Japan at the end of this contract as I speculated above, what do you think the chances are that the 10 year rule would/should be waived to accomodate his years of service in Japan?

[Windy City Fan]

When I first saw this thread, I thought that it was a little premature to be discussing Ichiro's chances at the hall. Looking at the numbers, it is pretty clear he has stacked up an impressive run already.

If he plays ten years and stays relatively close to his current levels, then Ichiro should be a lock. I think most writers would give him "extra credit" for his years in Japan as a star player.

If he only plays out his current contract, then the water gets a little more murky. 7 years of being one of the best outfielders in baseball, plus however many years of excellence he puts up in the Japan Leagues (I'm assuming Ichiro would still play in Japan if he doesn't stay in MLB). The only real precedent we have is that the requirement was waived for Negro Leaguers, but they were banned from playing the game. Japanese players have never had an official ban on their participation. However, there are strong cultural reasons why Japanese players never came over to MLB before Nomo. I personally would want to see Ichiro get into the hall even if he doesn't play a full ten years of big league ball. However, this would set a precedent that could allow for the election of other players who played exclusively in Japan (not necessarily a bad thing in my mind).

[Freakshow]

My guess is that they would waive the 10 year requirement for Ichiro if he plays at least 7 years. There are a few precedents in veterans committee procedures.

1) Addie Joss had the rule waived for him to be elected, playing in 9 seasons.

2) Larry Doby had his Negro league time considered in order to be elected. The rule at that time said that a player who began his career after 1945 had to receive at least 100 votes in a BBWAA election in order to be elgible for VC consideration.

3) Sam Jethroe is on the 200-player VC list, even though he played only 4 years in MLB. His Negro league years are being included to reach 10.

Assuming he continues playing at a high level for a couple more years, I believe that the BBWAA would give in to public outcry demanding Ichiro be made eligible.

[pretorius]

I agree that Ichiro is a speed player and should see a decline in his stats as he ages but then again great players like Ichiro tend to find a way. Tony Gwynn was a speed guy early in his career as well but managed to contend for batting titles basically until he retired even though he looked like the Pillbury Doughboy. Ichiro's stolen bases and OBP may drop as he ages but I still think he will be hitting over 315 and getting at least 170 hits until he retires. His hand eye is amazing.

I feel that Ichiro should probably be in now. The reason for me is that negro league players are elcted because it is established that they were good enough to be phenoms in the Majors. Satchel Paige's and Monte Irvin's big league stats were not good enough to merit induction in the hall but they got in because they proved they could play in the majors and their peers who played with them in the Negro leagues and became ML greats (Campanella, Robinson) only further established the reality that they would have been dominant if allowed to play longer.

Ichiro has proved that. He has proven that he would have been an all-time great if allowed to play here. (I know he wasnt barred but he had little opportunity) To me his domination of the Japanese leagues should be taken into account because he continued that absurd success when he came here.

The circumstance may be different but for me when I elect Negro League players it isnt because I am rectifying some great tragedy but because I feel they were good enough to be greats in the majors even though they couldnt prove it. I think the same could be said for Ichiro. Japanese hitters were not highly regarded and Ichiro had to play for several years before any major league team would have taken a chance on him.

When the player is faultless and his skill merits induction...I induct.

I really do not think anyone doubts that Ichiro would have been an amazing player in the ML during those years that he was dominating in Japan.

[DoubleX]

Err, my browser froze, so I accidentally posted two consecutive and identical posts. See post below.

[DoubleX]

Ichiro's stellar play in both Japan and now here, has forged a ever-strengthening link between baseball in the two countries and has aided the globalization of the game. Without Ichiro's emergence in America, I don't think we'd be realistically looking at a Baseball World Cup in the next year or two and I don't think ML teams would be seriously scouting Japanese talent. I don't want to compare him to Jackie Robinson, but in many ways, Ichiro's amazing play here has ushered in the beginning of a new international element to the game.

Also, the question beckons...if Ichiro receives credit for his play in Japan, should others as well, such as Hideki Matsui?

[leecemark]

--Matsui isn't likely to get within shouting distance of the Hall. I'm willing to give SOME credit for service in Japan. I think you need to post at least half a HalL of Fame carrer in the majors before you serve serious consideration for your accomplishments elsewhere. If Ichiro has 5-6 200 hit seasons in 7 big league campaigns its pretty reasonable to project he would have been a 3,000 hit guy if he'd played his whole career in MLB (in fact, with the shorter season in Japan it wouldn't be unreasonable to count all his hits there in spite of lesser competition). If Matsui puts up 8-10 or even 12-13 seasons like his first 2 that doesn't really project to hall of fame if we assume he would have put up the same numbers earlier.
--Ichiro has hit close enough to his numbers in Japan that we can make some reasonable assumptions about how he would have done if he'd come to the States earlier. Matsui pretty clealry wouldn't have come close ot his power numbers in Japan had he been playing here.
--Plus, being first always gets more credit than second. Doby was 2nd by weeks at integration and nobody talks about him (although he did eventually make the Hall). Minoso was the first Black Latin player, facing color and language barriers and gets virtually no credit for that at all. Although that is an injustice for them, I wouldn't want to reserve that in the case of Japanese players. They haven't had the same sort of obstacles to overcome. Ichiro is a unique case as far as Japanese players are concerned
--Now honoring a few of the all times greats of Japan who played their entire career there wouldn't be a bad idea - although I'd prefer it be done as a separate exhibit.

[julusnc]

When Ichiro first came to the majors and made such a huge splash I really thought he would be a flash in the pan.

I was wrong.

I have seen video of Ichiro in his early Japanese League days and he was outstanding.

He is a true and gifted baseball player.Ichiro has the skills to play in any league.

I believe he will be the first Japanese born player elected into Cooperstown but he needs to play at least 10 full years.

[DoubleX]

--Matsui isn't likely to get within shouting distance of the Hall. I'm willing to give SOME credit for service in Japan. I think you need to post at least half a HalL of Fame carrer in the majors before you serve serious consideration for your accomplishments elsewhere. If Ichiro has 5-6 200 hit seasons in 7 big league campaigns its pretty reasonable to project he would have been a 3,000 hit guy if he'd played his whole career in MLB (in fact, with the shorter season in Japan it wouldn't be unreasonable to count all his hits there in spite of lesser competition). If Matsui puts up 8-10 or even 12-13 seasons like his first 2 that doesn't really project to hall of fame if we assume he would have put up the same numbers earlier.
--Ichiro has hit close enough to his numbers in Japan that we can make some reasonable assumptions about how he would have done if he'd come to the States earlier. Matsui pretty clealry wouldn't have come close ot his power numbers in Japan had he been playing here.
--Plus, being first always gets more credit than second. Doby was 2nd by weeks at integration and nobody talks about him (although he did eventually make the Hall). Minoso was the first Black Latin player, facing color and language barriers and gets virtually no credit for that at all. Although that is an injustice for them, I wouldn't want to reserve that in the case of Japanese players. They haven't had the same sort of obstacles to overcome. Ichiro is a unique case as far as Japanese players are concerned
--Now honoring a few of the all times greats of Japan who played their entire career there wouldn't be a bad idea - although I'd prefer it be done as a separate exhibit.

I agree with just about everything you said. But in defense of Matsui, he's made a leap in power from last year to this year. It's still nothing near what he was doing in Japan, but it shows that his game is still adapting to the American style and improving while doing so. Had he played his whole career here, I think by now he'd be a legitimate 35 homerun, 120 RBI, .310 average threat every year.

[csh19792001]

http://www.thebaseballpage.com/columns/katz/040910.htm

[DTF955]

Nice article, though I think Ichiro might well play long enough to make it on his own merit. I was thinking about this the other day, and wondering about his age. If he's only 31, he could easily play 10 years more, and end up w/27 00-3100 hits. Then, the only question would be if he could be considered the all-time hit king. (Query - would some people, wanting to put down Pete Rose's accomplishments & help the argument for keeping him out of the Hall for his gambling as a manager, try to push for Ichiro to be considered the all-time hit king for that reaason? But,t hat's for another post.)

He would certainly be enshrined w/that many hits, and I think even w/2200 he'd get in with a high enough averge. It would be the gap hitters' version of Ralph Kiner. Look at how few seasons Ted Williams actually played, and how few at bats he had, for instance. If he'd not gone to Korea, he planned to retire in 1954 - and I think he'd have been a shoo-in even retiring then, wouldn't he?

Ichiro isn't that kind of legend that Williams was yet - but he will be soon, I bet.

[julusnc]

Ichiro isn't that kind of legend that Williams was yet - but he will be soon, I bet.

Ichiro is a fantastic player and he seems to be good enough to help open player relations with Japan and America. I see this as a great chance for America to enjoy more of Japan's players everyday......

I agree Ichiro will probably be the first officially enshrined Japanese player in the Major League Baseball Hall of Fame.He is a great player. He is a well developed multi tooled throwback style player.

Now for the above statement.

Ichiro is not a Legend or will he ever be.Speaking the names of Ichiro and Theodore Samuel Williams in the same breath is just wrong on so many levels.

Ted Williams is one of the greatest players to ever play baseball a top five all time.

Ichiro will be lucky to be a top 100 player when he is finished.

Every facet of Williams game is far superior to Ichiro's except defense..........

[abacab]

Every facet of Williams game is far superior to Ichiro's except defense..........

And baserunning.

[DTF955]

Yes, and thought I might not have been as explicit as I could have, I meant he would be if he continued at this pace; he would start that status if he breaks the record. (Which I think he will.) Nearly centuries old records are very hard to break after all :-)

Remember, Williams' hitting was so far ahead of every mortals, but numerous writers have said that they would prefer Musial over Williams in fielding, on the bases, and even in the clubhouse. (Not sure, admittedly, what they say about Ichiro in the clubhouse.)

Williams may be a Legend of Legends, but I would consider the following players also legends: Babe Ruth (obviously); Reggie Jackson (Mr. October, plus the way he gazed at all his homers sort of adds to it); Nolan Ryan (the K's and his almost insane condition, the no-hitters at 43 & 44 IIRC for instance); Joe DiMaggio (the Streak; voted greatest hitter alive over Williams in 1969); and possibly others, though those are the big names.

Ichiro with Ruth? No, that would be a capital L Legend like Williams and DiMaggio. ANd, you're right, that kind of legend status probably is unapproachable, as I think abou tit.

But, just as we remember Reggie & Ryan for incredible feats, Ichico breaking a mark set so long ago would help start his legend status to put him up with the likes of these legends. He will have done something exceedingly unusual, though if many Japanese players come to play and dominate the U.S. game it will of course be greatly dimiished. Still, he will be the first ever to cross that boarder and dominate for a long period.

I don't think he becomes a legend along the likes of Reggie and Ryan unless he gets at least 2500 hits int he majors - you could argue 3000 and I'd accept that, consider how late he started. But, to me, breaking a record 80+ years old, stealing several hundred bases, amassing 2500 hits in a career starting so late int he majors, and so on will qualify him for the legend status of the lesser legends of the game.

The lesser legends? Yeah, sounds weird.. But Bill James once spoke of the "run of the mill Hall of Famer" so I think a similar term can be used.

[csh19792001]

And baserunning.

And his arm, and his basestealing, and his hustle.

If we're talking about all around (five tool) greatness....Ichiro is a four tool player, Williams was a two tool player.

Ted Williams hit, and hit with power. As far as the REST of the game of baseball, he could have cared less, (and was mediocre at best) in the rest of the game.

Saying he'd be very lucky to be a top 100 player ever by the end of his career seems silly. Look at the guys from 80-100 on TSN's Top 100 Players, and tell me Ichiro, who already (after 4 seasons) holds several major league records, isn't going to end up ahead of them.

[csh19792001]

Yes, and thought I might not have been as explicit as I could have, I meant he would be if he continued at this pace; he would start that status if he breaks the record. (Which I think he will.) Nearly centuries old records are very hard to break after all :-)

Remember, Williams' hitting was so far ahead of every mortals, but numerous writers have said that they would prefer Musial over Williams in fielding, on the bases, and even in the clubhouse. (Not sure, admittedly, what they say about Ichiro in the clubhouse.)

Williams may be a Legend of Legends, but I would consider the following players also legends: Babe Ruth (obviously); Reggie Jackson (Mr. October, plus the way he gazed at all his homers sort of adds to it); Nolan Ryan (the K's and his almost insane condition, the no-hitters at 43 & 44 IIRC for instance); Joe DiMaggio (the Streak; voted greatest hitter alive over Williams in 1969); and possibly others, though those are the big names.

Ichiro with Ruth? No, that would be a capital L Legend like Williams and DiMaggio. ANd, you're right, that kind of legend status probably is unapproachable, as I think abou tit.

But, just as we remember Reggie & Ryan for incredible feats, Ichico breaking a mark set so long ago would help start his legend status to put him up with the likes of these legends. He will have done something exceedingly unusual, though if many Japanese players come to play and dominate the U.S. game it will of course be greatly dimiished. Still, he will be the first ever to cross that boarder and dominate for a long period.

I don't think he becomes a legend along the likes of Reggie and Ryan unless he gets at least 2500 hits int he majors - you could argue 3000 and I'd accept that, consider how late he started. But, to me, breaking a record 80+ years old, stealing several hundred bases, amassing 2500 hits in a career starting so late int he majors, and so on will qualify him for the legend status of the lesser legends of the game.

The lesser legends? Yeah, sounds weird.. But Bill James once spoke of the "run of the mill Hall of Famer" so I think a similar term can be used.

Nolan Ryan and Reggie Jackson? Are you sure you aren't talking about most hyped/overrated players?

How about Lou Gehrig, Ty Cobb, Walter Johnson, Cy Young.... THOSE are true legends (just to name a few you could have cited instead of those guys).

[tearforamariner]

Nolan Ryan and Reggie Jackson? Are you sure you aren't talking about most hyped/overrated players?

How about Lou Gehrig, Ty Cobb, Walter Johnson, Cy Young.... THOSE are true legends (just to name a few you could have cited instead of those guys).

Now I agree with you about Jackson. Mr. October is by no means a legend. But anyone who throws 7 No Hitters is a legend in my book.

[leecemark]

--I think some people are misunderstanding the reference to Jackson and Ryan as legends. That post was quite clear in saying that Jackson and Ryan were not the same class of player as Ruth and Williams (or Gehrig or..). They were/are legends of the second tier in that they were amoung the most talked about players of their era. They may well be the best remembered players of the 70s, at least amoung casual fans. That is the type of legend that Ichiro can hope to aspire to. A very good player who for whatever reason achieves a level of fame exceeding their actual accomplishments.

[csh19792001]

--I think some people are misunderstanding the reference to Jackson and Ryan as legends. That post was quite clear in saying that Jackson and Ryan were not the same class of player as Ruth and Williams (or Gehrig or..). They were/are legends of the second tier in that they were amoung the most talked about players of their era. They may well be the best remembered players of the 70s, at least amoung casual fans. That is the type of legend that Ichiro can hope to aspire to. A very good player who for whatever reason achieves a level of fame exceeding their actual accomplishments.

Mark,
Good point- I misunderstood his tier theory.

Per you last sentence- how can we judge whether fame accrued is justified or not??? And who are qualified judges?

[leecemark]

--Chris, I think we each have our own standards of greatness and they seem to intersect only in the case of the absolute giants. Even there we have some strong disagreements on which of those giants is THE greatest.
--In this particular case, I think Ichiro is a very, VERY good player but not the type of great player who can serve as the center piece of a championship caliber team. Given the choice between Ichiro in his prime and Reggie jackson in his as my rightfielder, I would take Reggie. You quite clearly would take Ichiro. I think that reflects our style prefences as much as anything about those players.
-- Nothing frustrates me more on these forums than people saying someone can't be great because "they struck out x number of times" or "they couldn't even hit .270" . Seeing Mike Schmidt edge out DiMaggio and Collins for 15th in the players poll pleased me as much as anything ever at BBF. There is more than one way to win a baseball game and excluding someone for that reason is as foolish as say a player can't be great because they never hit 30 (or 20 or 15) HR or that they MUST be great becasuse they hit for high average.
--There is no one thing that makes a player great. You need to look at the total package and place it in the context of the time they played. Perhaps I'm overly focussed on what Ichiro can't do and don't give him quite enough credit for what he can. However, if I'm going to reexamine Ichiro you might do the same for Reggie. You can make a pretty good arguement that Jackson was the best AL player of the 1970s. I seriously doubt that same arguement will work for Ichiro in this decade. Of course, its only half over and if he can repeat this years performance a few times maybe you could make that argument.

[Brad Harris]

Coincidentally, I've been working with win shares to develop a Decade's Greatest spreadsheet (like they have in the Win Shares book) for the current decade. I took the data the book had for 2000-2001 and have I am adding data from 2002-2004. I have the vast majority of top players done already and here's where I have Ichiro ranking among the best players in his league this decade.

169 Alex Rodriguez
146 Jason Giambi
135 Manny Ramirez
133 Carlos Delgado
129 Miguel Tejada
120 Jorge Posada
117 Derek Jeter
111 Bret Boone
109 Ichiro Suzuki
108 Eric Chavez
107 Bernie Williams
106 Johnny Damon
104 Magglio Ordonez

* Note that some players who spent the bulk of their time in the AL this decade were not included on this list. I included only those players who have spent all of their playing time this decade in the American League.

Ichiro's total production has been worth the 9th most value over the course of the decade (to date). It lags far behind players like Rodriguez, Giambi and Ramirez.

As leecemark pointed out, the decade isn't over. But it's clear that Suzuki isn't this decade's greatest player to date. Perhaps some day he'll be identified with the aughts as Steve Garvey is identified with the seventies: as one of the decade's better players.

[west coast orange and black]

...he could easily play 10 years more, and end up w/27 00-3100 hits. Then, the only question would be if he could be considered the all-time hit king. (Query - would some people, wanting to put down Pete Rose's accomplishments & help the argument for keeping him out of the Hall for his gambling as a manager, try to push for Ichiro to be considered the all-time hit king for that reaason?

there can be but one hit king... and pete rose wears that crown.

unfortunately for him, he also wears a crown of shame and ought to be kept out of the hall. i have never tried to put down rose's accomplishments... he has made the case for keeping him out of the hall quite convincingly all by himself.

[csh19792001]

--Chris, I think we each have our own standards of greatness and they seem to intersect only in the case of the absolute giants. Even there we have some strong disagreements on which of those giants is THE greatest.
--In this particular case, I think Ichiro is a very, VERY good player but not the type of great player who can serve as the center piece of a championship caliber team. Given the choice between Ichiro in his prime and Reggie jackson in his as my rightfielder, I would take Reggie. You quite clearly would take Ichiro. I think that reflects our style prefences as much as anything about those players.
-- Nothing frustrates me more on these forums than people saying someone can't be great because "they struck out x number of times" or "they couldn't even hit .270" . Seeing Mike Schmidt edge out DiMaggio and Collins for 15th in the players poll pleased me as much as anything ever at BBF. There is more than one way to win a baseball game and excluding someone for that reason is as foolish as say a player can't be great because they never hit 30 (or 20 or 15) HR or that they MUST be great becasuse they hit for high average.
--There is no one thing that makes a player great. You need to look at the total package and place it in the context of the time they played. Perhaps I'm overly focussed on what Ichiro can't do and don't give him quite enough credit for what he can. However, if I'm going to reexamine Ichiro you might do the same for Reggie. You can make a pretty good arguement that Jackson was the best AL player of the 1970s. I seriously doubt that same arguement will work for Ichiro in this decade. Of course, its only half over and if he can repeat this years performance a few times maybe you could make that argument.

I understand, and I agree. I think you know already that I look at the whole package and context. I've always harped on adjusting all stats, looking at the deeper context BEHIND the stats, and looking at how complete a player was. I'll consider that maybe I've been undervaluing Jackson, and I'll look at his contributions once again.

But what, specifically, do you look at when determining worth, and in what order?

BTW- I think many people voted for Schmidt because of the paucity of infielders- (10 of the first 14 elected were OFers), and 7 of eight before Schmidt were OFers. I think many people thought in terms of this being a "team", and that it needed to be evened out. Several expressed this feeling, meaning they didn't necessarily vote for Schmidt because they felt he was better than Dimaggio. Perhaps this isn't really a knock on Schmidt, but on the difficulty posed by a poll of this nature.

[ElHalo]

I've said this before and I'll say it again: If Ichiro was the same age as ARod, I'd trade ARod for him in a half a heartbeat. That's not necessarily a notable thing, because there are probably five or six AL guys I'd trade for ARod, but there you go.

I have NEVER seen as great a defensive corner outfielder as Ichiro, and I have NEVER seen as skilled a hitter as Ichiro. He always has me shaking my head in awe. Sure, not many walks, and not much power... but I'd be hard pressed to think of another AL player I'd rather have.

I look at Manny, and I see Ted Williams. I look at ARod, and I see... well, I'm biased, because I mostly see him as he's been this year, and that's mediocre. I look at Ichiro, and I see Ty Cobb. I'd be hard pressed not to take Ty Cobb.

[leecemark]

Chris, I know you're a big Ichiro fan but surely you won't let the comparison to Cobb slide by. Cobb DID have power. I can see the comparison between Ichiro and Sisler, but then I'm not exactly a big Sisler fan.
--I expect power from all my corner players. A great corner player has to be the kind of hitter you can stick in the middle of your order and have a championship caliber offense. If Ichiro played CF (and I am completely disgusted with the Mariners for not moving him there) I would value his contributions much more. If he played SS or 2B he would be the best player in the AL - at least with A-Rod playing 3B. Certainly he is very valuable as a RF, just not the type of player I prefer there and not a true MVP candidate. As Branch Rickey once said of Ralph Kiner, we could finish last without him.

[csh19792001]

I've said this before and I'll say it again: If Ichiro was the same age as ARod, I'd trade ARod for him in a half a heartbeat. That's not necessarily a notable thing, because there are probably five or six AL guys I'd trade for ARod, but there you go.

I have NEVER seen as great a defensive corner outfielder as Ichiro, and I have NEVER seen as skilled a hitter as Ichiro. He always has me shaking my head in awe. Sure, not many walks, and not much power... but I'd be hard pressed to think of another AL player I'd rather have.

I look at Manny, and I see Ted Williams. I look at ARod, and I see... well, I'm biased, because I mostly see him as he's been this year, and that's mediocre. I look at Ichiro, and I see Ty Cobb. I'd be hard pressed not to take Ty Cobb.

I look at Ichiro, and I do see certain hues of Ty Cobb- but a Cobb without power and nearly as much aggresiveness and brilliance on the basepaths. If Ichiro was leading the league in slugging annually and stealing a lot more bases, I could see a direct comparison. But Ty was a truly great power hitter (arguably the best in baseball for about a decade), while Ichiro hits almost exclusively singles.

Here are Ty's numbers through age 31 (his rate stats and SB/year are applicable, obviously the cumulatives are not).

http://www.baseball-reference.com/friv/scomp.cgi?I=cobbty01:Ty+Cobb&st=int&compage=31&age=31

But in many ways, ElHalo is right on the money- Ichiro is as fundamentally sound as anyone I've ever seen and I would take him over almost every guy in the AL (ARod has been disappointing, especially in key situations this year). Ichiro changes the game by doing things no one else could possibly do, and never fails to leave me shaking my head- sounds similar to what everyone said about a guy from North Georgia who played nearly a century ago.

[csh19792001]

I've said this before and I'll say it again: If Ichiro was the same age as ARod, I'd trade ARod for him in a half a heartbeat. That's not necessarily a notable thing, because there are probably five or six AL guys I'd trade for ARod, but there you go.

I have NEVER seen as great a defensive corner outfielder as Ichiro, and I have NEVER seen as skilled a hitter as Ichiro. He always has me shaking my head in awe. Sure, not many walks, and not much power... but I'd be hard pressed to think of another AL player I'd rather have.

I look at Manny, and I see Ted Williams. I look at ARod, and I see... well, I'm biased, because I mostly see him as he's been this year, and that's mediocre. I look at Ichiro, and I see Ty Cobb. I'd be hard pressed not to take Ty Cobb.

Oh, and I look at Barry Bonds, and I see Ted Williams. Manny isn't on the level of those two, plus he's right handed. :)

[Gaijin]

Chancellor: Isn't Ichiro missing a whole season though? (2000)

[Edgartohof]

Coincidentally, I've been working with win shares to develop a Decade's Greatest spreadsheet (like they have in the Win Shares book) for the current decade. I took the data the book had for 2000-2001 and have I am adding data from 2002-2004. I have the vast majority of top players done already and here's where I have Ichiro ranking among the best players in his league this decade.

169 Alex Rodriguez
146 Jason Giambi
135 Manny Ramirez
133 Carlos Delgado
129 Miguel Tejada
120 Jorge Posada
117 Derek Jeter
111 Bret Boone
109 Ichiro Suzuki
108 Eric Chavez
107 Bernie Williams
106 Johnny Damon
104 Magglio Ordonez

* Note that some players who spent the bulk of their time in the AL this decade were not included on this list. I included only those players who have spent all of their playing time this decade in the American League.

Ichiro's total production has been worth the 9th most value over the course of the decade (to date). It lags far behind players like Rodriguez, Giambi and Ramirez.

As leecemark pointed out, the decade isn't over. But it's clear that Suzuki isn't this decade's greatest player to date. Perhaps some day he'll be identified with the aughts as Steve Garvey is identified with the seventies: as one of the decade's better players.

While I do not think of him as the most productive hitter in baseball today, Ichiro is a little lower than where he should be, because he did not play in 2000, whereas all of the other players had 1 more year of play.

So in reality, if you subtract the other player's 2000 numbers from thier win shares, Ichiro would be somewhere closer to 4th or 5th. Still not the top, but better than he is portrayed here.

[MudvilleMike]

Nice article, though I think Ichiro might well play long enough to make it on his own merit. I was thinking about this the other day, and wondering about his age. If he's only 31, he could easily play 10 years more, and end up w/27 00-3100 hits.

But so many of Ichiro's hits are infield ones. What kind of player will he be in 5-10 years when he loses a few steps?

A couple of other Ichiro thoughts.

(1) Baseball is ultimately a form of entertainment. While Ichiro's productivity numbers are not the highest (he should walk more and he has little power), he is a remarkably entertaining player to watch. His baseball skills are phenomenal. That has to be worth something, he's clearly valuable for the sport.

(2) If I had a HOF vote, I would take into account his Japanese stats. I'm not saying that I'd simply add them to his MLB stats, but I would give him some credit. If he manages to pull off 10 or so excellent MLB seasons, I'd vote for him for sure.

[ElHalo]

Oh, and I look at Barry Bonds, and I see Ted Williams. Manny isn't on the level of those two, plus he's right handed. :)

Well, Bonds can field and baserun, and as such doesn't get the Williams comparison. And the Splinter and Manny are both far superior (career wise) contact hitters to Bonds.

As for Ichiro / Cobb... obviously I don't think Ichiro is as good as Cobb, when I try think of what Ty Cobb would look like on a baseball field, Ichiro + XBH is what I come up with. No, Ichiro isn't as agressive a baserunner as Cobb, but he's probably the most agressive I've seen since Vince Coleman.

[Gaijin]

But so many of Ichiro's hits are infield ones. What kind of player will he be in 5-10 years when he loses a few steps?

A couple of other Ichiro thoughts.

(1) Baseball is ultimately a form of entertainment. While Ichiro's productivity numbers are not the highest (he should walk more and he has little power), he is a remarkably entertaining player to watch. His baseball skills are phenomenal. That has to be worth something, he's clearly valuable for the sport.

(2) If I had a HOF vote, I would take into account his Japanese stats. I'm not saying that I'd simply add them to his MLB stats, but I would give him some credit. If he manages to pull off 10 or so excellent MLB seasons, I'd vote for him for sure.
I sometimes think that later in his career when and if he loses a few steps that he might become more of a power hitter. I don't think he'll become Barry Bonds, but maybe like a John Olerud (in his better years). He keeps in shape so he might not lose too many steps in any case. I don't think mid-20s or even 30s in homers would be impossible for him if he changed his approach.

[KHenry14]

I guess I'm the only one who when he thinks of Ichiro he also thinks of Clemente. Setting aside the stats...both played excellent defensive RF with rocket arms. Both ran the bases with abandon, and both were singles hitting machines.

Anybody else agree??

KH14

[leecemark]

--Well I'll agree Ichiro is much closer to Clemente than Cobb. Not quite the same type of player though. Clemente wasn't a true power hitter, but he got alot more extra base hits than Ichiro. Clemente ran pretty well, but wasn't super fast and certainly not a base stealer. They both hit for high average, distain(ed) walks and play(ed) an excellent RF though.

[ElHalo]

--Well I'll agree Ichiro is much closer to Clemente than Cobb. Not quite the same type of player though. Clemente wasn't a true power hitter, but he got alot more extra base hits than Ichiro. Clemente ran pretty well, but wasn't super fast and certainly not a base stealer. They both hit for high average, distain(ed) walks and play(ed) an excellent RF though.

I think you wildly underestimate Ichiro because you get to see him so much. You know I'm much younger, but I can say unequivocally that I've NEVER been as impressed by any position player I've ever seen in my lifetime as I am with Ichiro.

[BoSox Rule]

When Ichiro starts to lose his speed, he will hit for more power.

[leecemark]

--I'm not sure that seeing someone play alot is an impediment to evaluating how good they are, but I'm not interested in knocking Ichriro at this time. His accomplishment is certainly worthy of catching a break from his doubters for a few days. Saying Ichiro is closer in value to Clemente than Cobb wasn't meant as an insult.
--I have seen Ichriro display some power in BP and he could definately hit 20-25 HR if he wanted. He would have to completely alter his approach though and I'm not sure the trade off would be a very good one for him. He has a much higher BA on balls on the ground than balls in the air. I think he would be trading a huge chunk of BA in exchange for 10-15 HR. I doubt he would be willing, even if able, to keep playing once he loses a significant amount of speed. He is in great shape though and I wouldn't expect to start slowing down for several more years.
--The thing that has impressed me the most this seasonn is he didn't wilt late in the year as he did to varying degrees his first three. He actually played better down the strech this year and that is encouraging for his future success.

[ElHalo]

--I'm not sure that seeing someone play alot is an impediment to evaluating how good they are, but I'm not interested in knocking Ichriro at this time. His accomplishment is certainly worthy of catching a break from his doubters for a few days. Saying Ichiro is closer in value to Clemente than Cobb wasn't meant as an insult.

No, you're right, comparing him to Clemente certainly isn't an insult, and I don't think he's as good as Cobb... just a similar type player, and that's who Ichiro reminds me of.

As far as the seeing someone play a lot thing... I've been watching Roger Clemens play for the better part of 20 years, and since he's spent almost all of that time in the AL East, I've watched him a LOT. I think that might have a lot to do with why I'm not as high on him as other people. I saw the bruises and bumps much more than the flashes of briliance that people catching Sportcenter highlights saw.

[csh19792001]

Well, Bonds can field and baserun, and as such doesn't get the Williams comparison. And the Splinter and Manny are both far superior (career wise) contact hitters to Bonds.

As for Ichiro / Cobb... obviously I don't think Ichiro is as good as Cobb, when I try think of what Ty Cobb would look like on a baseball field, Ichiro + XBH is what I come up with. No, Ichiro isn't as agressive a baserunner as Cobb, but he's probably the most agressive I've seen since Vince Coleman.

Manny has 200 less strikeouts in 4000 less at bats- with how many less walks than Bonds? Plate discipline? Bonds, despite his outrageously inflated walk percentage the last few years, had great plate discipline even BEFORE.

Bonds is the closest thing we've seen to Williams since The Splinter himself retired. (at least the last 4 years, when Barry suddenly began the best slugger Ruth ever was, and best on base percentage man Williams ever was, wrapped into one....)

[csh19792001]

--I'm not sure that seeing someone play alot is an impediment to evaluating how good they are, but I'm not interested in knocking Ichriro at this time. His accomplishment is certainly worthy of catching a break from his doubters for a few days. Saying Ichiro is closer in value to Clemente than Cobb wasn't meant as an insult.
--I have seen Ichriro display some power in BP and he could definately hit 20-25 HR if he wanted. He would have to completely alter his approach though and I'm not sure the trade off would be a very good one for him. He has a much higher BA on balls on the ground than balls in the air. I think he would be trading a huge chunk of BA in exchange for 10-15 HR. I doubt he would be willing, even if able, to keep playing once he loses a significant amount of speed. He is in great shape though and I wouldn't expect to start slowing down for several more years.
--The thing that has impressed me the most this seasonn is he didn't wilt late in the year as he did to varying degrees his first three. He actually played better down the strech this year and that is encouraging for his future success.

He hit .430 over the last THREE months of the season. Ridiculous, in this day in age.

If he gets off to a good start (instead of an awful one) in any of the next few seasons, he'll make a run at .400. I don't see anyone else in the world as having this ability or potential.

[csh19792001]

No, you're right, comparing him to Clemente certainly isn't an insult, and I don't think he's as good as Cobb... just a similar type player, and that's who Ichiro reminds me of.

As far as the seeing someone play a lot thing... I've been watching Roger Clemens play for the better part of 20 years, and since he's spent almost all of that time in the AL East, I've watched him a LOT. I think that might have a lot to do with why I'm not as high on him as other people. I saw the bruises and bumps much more than the flashes of briliance that people catching Sportcenter highlights saw.

That's very true- you see the highlights, and you don't see the whole player.

In any case, Roger Clemens (or Randy Johnson- YES, the guy on the last place team) should win the Cy Young this year.

Actually, it probably should be Unit. He leads or is second in all the quality stats.

Randy Johnson leads all of baseball ERA (NO, I don't consider a guy who pitches 160 innings to be a candidate, that's bogus)

SECOND in IP (quality coulpled with quantity)

Leads all of baseball in K's by a wide margin

Leads in WHIP (ahead of Santana)

Leads in OBP against

Leads the NL in BA against

AND there was the perfect game. :)

W-L% is pretty useless- you guys were right. But, of course, he won't get any consideration for the award because he was on a lousy team and has a lousy record. C'est la vie.

[jalbright]

I've written an article with my own take on this very issue
http://baseballguru.com/jalbright/analysisjalbright31.html

Jim Albright

[julusnc]

If Ichiro can maintain a high level of play for ten full Major League Baseball seasons than I think HOF voters will also consider his seasons in Japan as a precursor to his success in the US.

It is still to early but I think Ichiro will make it.

Ichiro is just so much fun to watch play.He has the throwback 100% all the time style.Simply Awesome!

[moviegeekjan]

I think he started his MLB career a little late. He's already 30. He'll have to win some serious batting titles before he can get in.
A number of players have been inducted that had 10 years in MLB... If he stays healthy and continues to produce at a high level for 10 years, no reason for him NOT to be there.

[Captain Cold Nose]

If Ichiro only plays six more years, he'll need to keep hitting around .300. Based on what he has accomplished in his first four years, he can coast in with good seasons the rest of the way.

[moviegeekjan]

If Ichiro only plays six more years, he'll need to keep hitting around .300. Based on what he has accomplished in his first four years, he can coast in with good seasons the rest of the way. True! He may not get in on the first ballot, but I'd expect him to be named... should he complete his career with the kind of figures you're talking about. There are a number of HOF players with relatively short careers that only had REALLY excellent numbers for 4-5 seasons.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

In four seasons Ichiro has already accomplished:

All-Time single season hits record (262)
1 MVP Award
RoY Award
4 Gold Gloves
1 Silver Slugger
2 batting Titles
2-time hits leader
1 Stolen Base Title

Blank Ink Score: 18 ( Ave HoFer ~27)
Gray Ink Score: 54 (Ave HoFer ~144)
HoF Standards 26.0 (Avg HoFer ~50)
HoF Monitor: 114.0 (Likely HoFer>100)


So far Ichiro is off to a tremendous start. Since he will not be able to rack up large career numbers he needs to have several more high quality seasons. If Ichiro gets into the Hall of Fame it will be on the QUALITY of his seasons. If he plays to age 40 he would play 13 seasons. He actually has a shot at 2500 hits.

He needs 1576 hits from here on out. He only needs to average 175 hits until age 40. Since he’s averaged 231 hits so far this seems reasonable. Let’s say his production is reduced by 15% over the next four seasons. That would be 785 hits in four seasons, 196 hits per season. So after eight seasons he will have 1709 hits. From age 35-40 (five seasons) he’s only have to average 158 hits. And all this is based on him playing at a 15% reduced rate. The odds of him have 200+ hit seasons over the next two seasons is very high. Let’s say he pulls a Wade Boggs and has seven straight 200 hit seasons. He’d only need 776 over the final six seasons (129 hits per season!).

What about his Japanese career? This should be given some weight. As some of you know I am a great fan of Japanese baseball. They play a high quality brand of baseball, only the American and National Leagues are stronger. He was the dominant player in Japan for seven seasons.

So Ichiro’s HoF candidacy comes down to three things:

1) Final career hit total
2) # of batting titles
3) # of Gold Gloves

If he gets say 2200-2400 hits, 6-8 batting titles, and 6-10 Gold Gloves it would be unprecedented to not elect him.

[moviegeekjan]

If he gets say 2200-2400 hits, 6-8 batting titles, and 6-10 Gold Gloves it would be unprecedented to not elect him. Those are shoe-in career totals... heh... just how many players HAVE won 6 batting titles, for instance?

Don't think the bar has to be set that high for him to get in. ;)

[Edgartohof]

Those are shoe-in career totals... heh... just how many players HAVE won 6 batting titles, for instance?

Don't think the bar has to be set that high for him to get in. ;)

Players w/ 6+ batting titles:

Cobb - 11
Gwynn - 8
Wagner - 8
Carew - 7
Hornsby - 7
Musial - 7
Williams - 6

Honorable Mention:
Boggs - 5
Brouthers - 5
Lajoie - 5

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Those are shoe-in career totals... heh... just how many players HAVE won 6 batting titles, for instance?

Don't think the bar has to be set that high for him to get in. ;)
Counting his seven Japanese batting titles Ichiro has nine batting titles total...

[trosmok]

Last season Ichiro broke Sisler's record for hits in a season, had fewer strikeouts, and walked more times than he had in any of his previous three ML seasons. As great as he is, this is a strong indication he is still improving! Barring injury, and taking into account his Japanese League batting titles, the enormous effect he has had all the way around the Pacific rim, his popularity here and in Asia, he seems destined for Cooperstown. It is still a little early to tell, and nothing would help his chances like reversing the 63-99 record his Mariners suffered last season, and finaly beat the Yankees in the ALCS. If you ask him about the HOF, he would likely reply that it would be a great honor, but he plays baseball to win, and to win the World Series. A couple of championships looks really good on the resume, don't you think?

[moviegeekjan]

If you ask him about the HOF, he would likely reply that it would be a great honor, but he plays baseball to win, and to win the World Series. A couple of championships looks really good on the resume, don't you think? That would do as much as anything, especially if he is a major contributor... some HOFers received more recognition due to standing out in the post season.

Historical considerations should play a major part, and with the increasing number of Asian players being successful in MLB... Ichiro would be a prime candidate for HOF recognition--similar to years immediately after Jackie Robinson broke the barrier, a number of black players were inducted despite having relatively short MLB years.

[Edgartohof]

Some (or all) of this may have already been said, but here are some acheivements (and and other stuff) that Ichiro has had that make me believe he deserves induction into the HOF.

1. I am a very biased Mariner's fan :D

Now on to the real list:

In 4 years already, Ichiro has:

2 Batting titles (top 10 all 4 years)
MVP and ROY in same year
4 All-Star selections
4 GG's - considered by many to have an all-time glove
Amazing arm - I believe it to be the best in the game right now
1 SB title - never out of top 5, and never under 30
Single Season Hits record (and another top 10)
Most hits in any 4 year period
Greatest contact hitter of today
Leading current players in BA (.339)
one of the fastest players in the game (his speed is amazing!)
4 tool player (hits for average, Great glove, great arm, and runs very well - just no power to speak of).
Doesn't soak the team for 20+ million!!!
Most exciting player in the game today (this one is very subjective)

Things against him:

A singles hitter w/ no power...

...That's all I could think of, I'm sure there are more reasons...

Oh, I guess he doesn't have the highest OBP, in part because he doesn't walk a lot, but last year, he did get it above .400, and was second in the league.

Some believe he didn't deserve the MVP (or ROY)


I just thought of a few more things to support Ichiro:

He has an amazingly high BA w/ the bases loaded (not sure what it is off the top of my head), and led in that category last year (along w/ RC) and was not detered by a horrible offense backing him up last year, so it obviously wasn't the help of the 90+ win team of the previous 3 seasons that made him so good.

[Pghfan987]

After last season, Ichiro solidified his spot as one of the greatest contact hitters of all-time. He's a lock first ballot hall of famer.

Mark

[moviegeekjan]

Some (or all) of this may have already been said, but here are some acheivements (and and other stuff) that Ichiro has had that make me believe he deserves induction into the HOF. I'd vote for him... and btw, I'd also vote to admit Edgar when he's eligible. I hate the DH, but since we have it... the HOF needs to recognize the best DH of all time.

[leecemark]

--I don't think Ichiro needs to improve or even have another season close to last year to make the Hall. If he merely declines gracefully, keeping his average above say .320 (now at .339) though the required 10 seasons he should sail into Cooperstown on the first ballot. If he drops below .300 more than once in the next 6 seasons though that will be a problem. Almost his entire offensive value is based on a high BA.
--He started too late to get in on cumlative totals. That shouldn't even be a consideration unless you give him credit for about 80% of his Japan numbers (which wouldn't be an unreasonable approach). Being the best hitter for BA of his generation, a GG outfielder, SB champ and pioneer for Asian position players is a pretty good package.

[The Commissioner]

What about Ichiro???

I loved that movie!!! Bill Murray was hilarious and Richard Dreyfu...oh, wait, I'm sorry I must be mixed up again.

I agree with leecemark, that he doesn't really need to improve. Actually, I'm not sure how he really could improve all that much. After winning two batting titles four Gold Gloves and an MVP Award I would think that all he needs to do is continiue to play well and not take a nosedive. If he plays one more great year and then becomes a .220 hitter, he'll have problems. However, let's say hypothetically that he "only" manages to hit .300 over the next six seasons. Let's be conservative and say he misses some time due to injuries and collects 900 more hits in 3000 more at bats. His career total of 1824 hits would be rather unimpressive, but in only 5722 at bats it would give him a career .318 BA. I really can't see him not getting elected at that point with a career .318 average and two batting titles to his credit. If he actually does continue to perform exceptionally well and in a dominant manner for one or two more years, it would become even more difficult to keep him out. Basically, over the next 3000 at bats, Ichiro can hit .267 and still wind up as a career .300 hitter. In all likelihood, my guess is that if Ichiro gets his ten years in, and stays relatively healthy, he'll get into Cooperstown.

[Etheridge2]

I'd vote for him... and btw, I'd also vote to admit Edgar when he's eligible. I hate the DH, but since we have it... the HOF needs to recognize the best DH of all time.

Not to stir up a hornet's nest or stray this off topic, but isn't that logic akin to saying the best set up man should be in the hall?? After all in today;s game middle relief and the bullpen is as important (or considering both leagues have bullpens perhaps more important) to the game as the DH. Do you support Jesse Orosco for the hall? Or whoever is the greatest set up man of all time???


Or perhaps we could apply that logic to say Aubrey Huff when he retires and becomes eligible? We could make the hall of fame like the all star game, where every team gets a representative. Isn't that like what your saying? I mean if every position must be represented then surely every team must be as well??? That way Randy Johnson goes in as a Diamondback, and Larry Walker's election is all but assured. Who represents the Marlins?? Piazza, Sheffield, Nen?????

I don't buy into the argument that Edgar should be in because he is the best DH ever? I mean look at the DH's out there Jose Offerman?? Brad Fullmer??? Ruben Sierra?? Tim Salmon???? Is watchign these guys hit really all that much more exciting then the added drama having the pitcher bats adds to a game??? Sure every now and then there us an Edgar or Frank Thomas or Travis Hafner if he continues to DH, BUT overall the vast majority of men who have been DH's are average or below players anyway. You ask me Edgar isn't a hall of famer....and the DH should forever be abolished

Of course I do think Ichiro is headed to Cooperstown, but I will reserve my final vote for a few years.

[Etheridge2]

His career total of 1824 hits would be rather unimpressive, but in only 5722 at bats it would give him a career .318 BA. I really can't see him not getting elected at that point with a career .318 average and two batting titles to his credit.

Well Ken Williams played 14 seasons and had a career .319 average with 1 HR crown under his belt he had 1552 hits but in only 4862 at bats and he isn't in.

Lew Fonseca has 1 batting title and a career .316 average over 12 seasons. 1075 hits in 3404 at bats and he isn't in.

Riggs Stephenson may be the best example as he has a career .336 average with 1515 hits in 4508 at bats over 14 seasons. Granted no batting titles

None of them are in, of course Ichiro also has his defense and i am sure some will consider his Japanese exploits. Overall I think Ichiro is probably going to Cooperstown, but he could still derail that train.

[Brad Harris]

If Ichiro plays 6 more seasons, declines normally and remains reasonably healthy then....

....he should be elected to the Hall of Fame; and...

....he will be elected if the Powers That Be pull their heads out of their collective [expletives deleted].

[STLCards2]

The national media and MLB both have a huge love affair with Ichiro. I would be willing to say that he will make the Hall of Fame, even if he is slightly undeserving, before the "powers that be" keep him out if he did deserve it. They will be looking for every possible reason to put him in.
That being said, I see no reason, he won't play long enough or well enough to make Cooperstown...but things do happen.

[Edgartohof]

The national media and MLB both have a huge love affair with Ichiro. I would be willing to say that he will make the Hall of Fame, even if he is slightly undeserving, before the "powers that be" keep him out if he did deserve it. They will be looking for every possible reason to put him in.
That being said, I see no reason, he won't play long enough or well enough to make Cooperstown...but things do happen.

exactly.

When I talk about how people should consider his accomplishments from Japan, to aid in his election to the HOF, it is generally considering if he does not make it to the full 10 year mark (for whatever reason), but if he does play a full 10+ years here (and I sure hope he does), there would be no need to, other than when ranking him all-time, some people (such as myself) might use the 7 consecutive batting titles he had in Japan.

[The Commissioner]

Well Ken Williams played 14 seasons and had a career .319 average with 1 HR crown under his belt he had 1552 hits but in only 4862 at bats and he isn't in.

Lew Fonseca has 1 batting title and a career .316 average over 12 seasons. 1075 hits in 3404 at bats and he isn't in.

Riggs Stephenson may be the best example as he has a career .336 average with 1515 hits in 4508 at bats over 14 seasons. Granted no batting titles

None of them are in, of course Ichiro also has his defense and i am sure some will consider his Japanese exploits. Overall I think Ichiro is probably going to Cooperstown, but he could still derail that train.

You can't reasonably compare my example of Ichiro potentially compiling close to 6000 at bats with only 3400+ for Fonseca. Stephenson was 1200+ at bats short and Williams close to 1000. Had any of those three collected around 6000 at bats in their career, it could be argued that they would be in the Hall of Fame.

[Edgartohof]

I am going to pose a hypothetical for you all:

Let's just say that next season, Ichiro hits .400, then dies! Would you elect him to the HOF?

Now let's say that he just has another 5 "Ichiro Average" years (for 9 total), then his knees give out and he can never play again, would you elect him?


To both questions, I would have to answer yes to them. First off, if he hit .400, that is an amazing feat, and if he suddenly died, he has shown what he has done in this league, and in others, and again, hitting .400 is amazing.

Also, even if he only plays 9 seasons, but gets aroung 200+ hits each season and a fair .300+ BA, then yes, even though he may still be short, even if he never has another Standout year like '01 or '04.

What do you think?

[leecemark]

--If he doesn't play the required 10 years he doesn't get my vote for Cooperstown (if I had one), regardless of the circumstances. With Japanese play now eligible for consideration for the BBF Hall I could vote for him under either of your scenario here. That would also apply if the real Hall decided to consider JL players.

[Naliamegod]

Well Ken Williams played 14 seasons and had a career .319 average with 1 HR crown under his belt he had 1552 hits but in only 4862 at bats and he isn't in.

Lew Fonseca has 1 batting title and a career .316 average over 12 seasons. 1075 hits in 3404 at bats and he isn't in.

Riggs Stephenson may be the best example as he has a career .336 average with 1515 hits in 4508 at bats over 14 seasons. Granted no batting titles


And those players played in extreme hitting eras where hitting. The league average for BA right now is normally around .260-.270. Back then it was around .280 to .300. Players like Ken Williams were just "good" players who stats look better then they really were because of the extreme hitter's era of the time.

[jalbright]

--If he doesn't play the required 10 years he doesn't get my vote for Cooperstown (if I had one), regardless of the circumstances. With Japanese play now eligible for consideration for the BBF Hall I could vote for him under either of your scenario here. That would also apply if the real Hall decided to consider JL players.

For myself, I think I'd vote for Ichiro in either case, even without the rule change leecemark is talking about. Getting Ichiro in under those circumstances would create the precedent that I think ultimately would allow Japanese players into the Hall. Since such an outcome is my goal, I'd welcome the half a loaf that acknowledges Japanese players' accomplishments in the Japanese leagues can be considered at least for guys who played in the majors. I'd rather see the rule end before the "at least . . .", but I'd be willing to start with that.

Jim Albright

[Honus Wagner Rules]

For myself, I think I'd vote for Ichiro in either case, even without the rule change leecemark is talking about. Getting Ichiro in under those circumstances would create the precedent that I think ultimately would allow Japanese players into the Hall. Since such an outcome is my goal, I'd welcome the half a loaf that acknowledges Japanese players' accomplishments in the Japanese leagues can be considered at least for guys who played in the majors. I'd rather see the rule end before the "at least . . .", but I'd be willing to start with that.

Jim Albright

There is precedent for allowing a player with less than 10 ML seasons into the Hall of Fame. Addie Joss only played nine seasons. He unexpectedly died after his ninth season. He was elected in 1978.

[jalbright]

There is precedent for allowing a player with less than 10 ML seasons into the Hall of Fame. Addie Joss only played nine seasons. He unexpectedly died after his ninth season. He was elected in 1978.


True, but I think it's really only a precedent for someone who dies before the tenth season. In that case, it's not too good for Ichiro to be using that avenue. :)

Though 10 years of MLB service is a key number for Ichiro's case, I'd say the most interesting is 2100. Assuming he has at least a .300 career MLB average (a pretty good bet since average is his defining characteristic as a player and he's well over that mark at present), even low power hitting outfielders with a .300 or better career average start doing very well. By about 2800 or more, they're all in. So, below 2100 MLB hits, Ichiro needs to have his Japanese hits help him. The need for those hits diminishes and disappears no later than 2800 NPB hits.

Jim Albright

[The Commissioner]

By about 2800 or more, they're all in. So, below 2100 MLB hits, Ichiro needs to have his Japanese hits help him.

I don't agree. If Ichiro gets anywhere near 2000 hits, he would probably be a lock.

[jalbright]

I don't agree. If Ichiro gets anywhere near 2000 hits, he would probably be a lock.

I agree, but only because there's an element like me that give him credit for what he did in Japan. If you force him to rely solely on his major league stats, there are three outfielders by primary position (Harvey Kuenn is one I remember) who are between 2000 and 2100 career hits, over a .300 career average, and less than .480 slugging who aren't in. Indeed, at or below 2100 career hits with those other characteristics, more are out than in. You'd be establishing a different precedent--and I submit the reason for it is what he did in Japan. The higher you go over 2100 hits, the less and less he needs the Japanese record to boost him to get him into the Hall. That's what I was trying to convey in the earlier post.

Jim Albright

[RuthMayBond]

I am going to pose a hypothetical for you all:

Let's just say that next season, Ichiro hits .400, then dies! Would you elect him to the HOF?

Now let's say that he just has another 5 "Ichiro Average" years (for 9 total), then his knees give out and he can never play again, would you elect him?


To both questions, I would have to answer yes to them. First off, if he hit .400, that is an amazing feat, and if he suddenly died, he has shown what he has done in this league, and in others, and again, hitting .400 is amazing.

Also, even if he only plays 9 seasons, but gets aroung 200+ hits each season and a fair .300+ BA, then yes, even though he may still be short, even if he never has another Standout year like '01 or '04.

What do you think?#1 No. #2 Yes

[Bravestar]

Does anyone besides me think that one day Ichiro will be in the HOF? He is going to eventually break the career hit record but does anyone think he will be held out ?

[JACKIE42]

Does anyone besides me think that one day Ichiro will be in the HOF? He is going to eventually break the career hit record but does anyone think he will be held out ?

I think hes HOF, but don't think he has enough time to break the hit record.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

I think hes HOF, but don't think he has enough time to break the hit record.

If he continues at his pace he'll end up with about 2200 career hits, about 2000 hits behind Pete Rose...

[Honus Wagner Rules]

fuuny you should ask about Ichiro. This is from Rob Neyer earlier today...

But will you still love a man out of time?
– Elvis Costello

When I sat down to write about Ichiro Suzuki, I thought of him as a player who's stuck in the wrong time. As a player who, if he'd been born a century earlier, might have ranked as not only a great player, but as one of the greatest players. After all, Ichiro hits safely at a tremendous clip, he terrorizes opposing batteries with his speed, and he plays wonderfully in the outfield. Those qualities are reminiscent of – dare I say it? – the heretofore incomparable Ty Cobb.
Here's what Cobb said – or rather, what his ghost writer wrote – about hitting:

Nearly all the great hitters of today are those who place their punches or bat behind the runner. There are few of the old style sluggers left, the men who just take a long, healthy wallop at the ball and trust that it will not go up against some fielder. Most of the boys in the select "three hundred" class are using their heads all the time they are at the plate trying to outguess the fielders and the opposing pitcher and stand them all on their heads. This style of hitting gives a player what we call the "percentage," or the edge, and every man who is to bat up over three hundred needs this percentage.

That's the popular image of Cobb the ballplayer: gently lofting the ball over the outstretched glove of the shortstop, or bunting the ball into no-man's land between the pitcher and the third baseman. Just like Ichiro (except for the old-style batting grip).

The comparison doesn't hold, though. Cobb did hit for a high batting average – the highest ever, actually – and of course he ran the bases with both great speed and great skill. But Cobb also had power. For his time, big-time power. In Cobb's first 11 full seasons, he led the American League in extra-base hits three times and finished among the top five in the league eight times. (Bill Burgess!!!!!!)

Yes, Cobb regularly led his league in singles ... but he also regularly finished among the league leaders in doubles, in triples ... and yes, even in home runs. Meanwhile, Ichiro has led the American League in singles in each of his four seasons, but never finished anywhere close to the league leaders in extra-base hits. In 2004, his greatest season yet, Ichiro's 37 extra-base hits were good for 84th in the American League.


As it happens, nearly every hitter we consider among the greatest, from Cobb to Williams to Bonds and Pujols, not only won batting titles but also hit with plenty of power, or drew plenty of walks, or (in most cases) both. Ichiro doesn't show much power (except occasionally in batting practice), and he walks roughly once every four games.

So it's not realistic to think that Ichiro would have ranked among the game's very best hitters, if only he'd played in an era that didn't reward power and patience to the degree that this one does. I do think that Ichiro's game would have been more valuable in 1905 than it is in 2005. But what kind of player would he have been, 100 years ago? It's hard to say, because there's never been anybody quite like him. He might be the most accomplished hitter of singles in major league history, and he complements all those singles with a decent number of steals (he's led his league once, as a rookie four years ago) and sterling defensive work in right field.

What sort of player is Ichiro Suzuki? He is, in the annals of major league history, unique. We might compare him to relatively modern contact hitters like Wade Boggs and Rod Carew, except Boggs drew tons of walks and hit tons of doubles, and Carew did plenty of both. We might compare him to old-time right fielders like Ross Youngs and Sam Rice, except neither of those players won batting titles or stole many bases.

For an approximate analog to Ichiro Suzuki, perhaps we must skip backward past the 20th century, and recall Wee Willie Keeler, who liked to "hit 'em where they ain't." Beginning in 1897, Keeler led his league in singles four straight seasons (just like Ichiro). Keeler didn't have much power, but he played a pretty solid right field and ranked as one of the game's better base stealers. Just like Ichiro. Keeler was a wonderful player, of course; a Hall of Famer.

But because Keeler didn't do enough of the things that put runs on the scoreboard, he wasn't one of the truly greatest players.

Just like Ichiro.

Neyer is saying things that I'm sure Bill Burgess has been saying for years now. :D

[nolanryan5714]

If he continues at his pace he'll end up with about 2200 career hits, about 2000 hits behind Pete Rose...
I tend to agree with this.

His one historic season will not go unnoticed, though. Even if he doesn't eclipse the 3,000 mark (but comes close), he will probably be a sure thing in the HOF.

[Blackout]

Does anyone besides me think that one day Ichiro will be in the HOF? He is going to eventually break the career hit record but does anyone think he will be held out ?

Ichiro is 31 years old, it would take him deep into his 40s to break the hit record.

if you count his 9 years in the Jap league, he had 1278 total hits. so even if you add that, he'd still have to play a long, long time to break the hit record.


but yeah, Ichiro should be a lock for the HOF if he keeps things up, same thing with Godzilla (who is silently being the best player on the Yankees)

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Does anyone besides me think that one day Ichiro will be in the HOF? He is going to eventually break the career hit record but does anyone think he will be held out ?
Did you mean that we would count his Japanese hit total also? If so, then at least that is within the realm of possibility. Counting his Japanese totals he already has over 2000 hits. Very few players have had over 200 0hits by age 31...

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Ichiro is 31 years old, it would take him deep into his 40s to break the hit record.

if you count his 9 years in the Jap league, he had 1278 total hits. so even if you add that, he'd still have to play a long, long time to break the hit record.
(who is silently being the best player on the Yankees)
Too bad Ichiro can't be a player/manager in his late 30s-early 40s so he can start himself over better players and make a mockery of the game... :cool:

[ballparks]

same thing with Godzilla

Now time right out here. Are you seriously talking about someone who's played in the majors for TWO years going to the hall of fame. Not only has it been TWO years, but they were OK years at best. Neither would come close to being considered a hall-worthy year.

If you want to retort 'but his years in the Japanese Leagues were incredible', I ask you.... How many players from the entire history of those leagues has been elected to Cooperstown? None thanks.

Let's get real about Matsui. Two weeks as 'the best player on the Yankees' would land Kevin Maas a spot in the hall as well. Gimmie a break!

[Blackout]

Now time right out here. Are you seriously talking about someone who's played in the majors for TWO years going to the hall of fame. Not only has it been TWO years, but they were OK years at best. Neither would come close to being considered a hall-worthy year.

If you want to retort 'but his years in the Japanese Leagues were incredible', I ask you.... How many players from the entire history of those leagues has been elected to Cooperstown? None thanks.

Let's get real about Matsui. Two weeks as 'the best player on the Yankees' would land Kevin Maas a spot in the hall as well. Gimmie a break!

him and Ichiro were the top 2 players in Japan, if Ichiro makes it, Godzilla should, assuming they both stay consistant

[Ichiro51]

Ichiro is a first ballot hall of famer, but I highly doubt he'll ever break Rose's hits record, and no they will not count the hits he had in Japan, because Sadaharu Oh had more home runs in his career, but all of them were coming from smaller stadiums in Japan and a little bit less competition pitching.

[Blackout]

im going to take a guess that bravestar was unaware that Ichiro is already 30 years old ;)

[Edgartohof]

While Ichiro will not break the ML hits record (that is what is said before all records fall), by adding up from both leagues, to this day, he already has 2229 hits, and that is without mentioning that he played shorter schedules in Japan, so if he played more games/season over there, he would easily have 100-150 more hits, if not more.

The youngest active player w/ 2000+ hits, it Griffey jr @ 34 years old, so even with a shorter yearly schedules, Ichiro has amassed more hits in 2 fewer years than the next major leaguer - now that is something.

I am not saying that he is the greatest, but If Ichiro had played all his career in the ML's, and played to 40-41, he would have had a shot @ 4,000 hits, and even possibly the all-time record.

Still, depending on how long he decides to stay in the ML's, he has a shot at 3,000 hits in his career, within 4 years (including this year). Also, if he decides to play to 40-41 here, he has a shot at 3,000 in the ML's - a long shot, but a shot nonetheless.

To do so, he would need to average 200 hits over 15 seasons, and since he started here at age 27, that would mean staying until age 41. Every hit he gets NOW helps his chances, as many of hits depend on speed, so unless he changes his hitting style to fit his abilities (which is certainly possible), he won't be getting 240+ hits at age 39.

Of course, seeing as he was 124 hits "ahead of schedule" (200 hits x 4 seasons = 800; 924 - 800 = 124), and will most likely add to that this year, as every hit over 173 will add to it, and seeing as he has been averaging 231/season, and he is hitting beautifully, he could be a full season ahead, come next April.

[Ursa Major]

I'd compare him in a way to Koufax -- maybe not much longevity, but while he played, he was the best in the game at what he did. And like Bonds, you don't go get a beer when Ichiro comes to bat.

Give Ichiro four more years like last year, and he's in. And I don't care if he doesn't get doubles, the rest of his game compensates.

[bigtrain]

[QUOTE=ballparks]Now time right out here. Are you seriously talking about someone who's played in the majors for TWO years going to the hall of fame. Not only has it been TWO years, but they were OK years at best. Neither would come close to being considered a hall-worthy year.

This is dead on. How can you call a player a lock of the hall when he has only been in the league a couple of years. A lot can happen from now until he retires. If all this stay consistent and he has a long career then sure he is HOF bound but a you never know. Here are a couple of people who started out hot; Daryl Strawberry, Dwight Gooden, Fernando Venezuela, Jose Canseco, Mo Vaughn. Point is don't count your chickens before they hatch.

[westsidegrounds]

Willie Keeler:

Runs: 7 times in the top 2
Hits: 9 times in the top 3
BA: 8 times in the top 4
SLG: 5 times in the top 10
OBP: 7 times in the top 10
TB: 10 times in the top 10
Runs Created: Twelve times in the top ten.


Just a little something for Ichiro to shoot for ...

[Bleacherbee]

Breaking the all time hit record doesnt guarantee you a place in Cooperstown

[ElHalo]

He should be a surefire lock.

[Yankees]

I tend to lean that way, as well (HOF bound), but he will need to retain his speed into his late 30s... Many of his hits are infield hits, remember.

[Edgartohof]

This is dead on. How can you call a player a lock of the hall when he has only been in the league a couple of years. A lot can happen from now until he retires. If all this stay consistent and he has a long career then sure he is HOF bound but a you never know. Here are a couple of people who started out hot; Daryl Strawberry, Dwight Gooden, Fernando Venezuela, Jose Canseco, Mo Vaughn. Point is don't count your chickens before they hatch.

First of all, I personally think that he has done enough here to deserve the Hall, but even if you don't, I also consider what he has accomplished in the Japanese leagues (7 consecutive batting titles), and how he has played a huge part in the history of the game, bringing in such a national audience, and think about it, if it weren't for Ichiro, there wouldn't be Godzilla in New York. I am not saying that this is like the second coming of Jackie or anything, but he has been a pivotal player in this arena, not even touching upon his on the field contributions (which have as mentioned, been tremendous).

[Roy Hobbs]

Well we all agree that certain situations shouldn't keep people out of Cooperstown. Hideki and Ichiro cannot help the fact they were born Japanese, or that they were both born Japanese and born in Japan.

If their parents had immigrated to this country before they were born they'd both have been in the majors by their early 20s and would probably be putting up hall of fame career numbers.

Japanese baseball is going to present many problems like this over the coming decades. Japanese players who are legitimately great will have a hard time getting into the HoF because it seems it takes about 5-10 years to get brought over to America if you're great in Japan. Probably because we don't seem to scout high schoolers over there, the Japanese are very nationalistic and I think there is strong pressure for many of the greats to get onto a good Japanese team and get a long-term contract so they don't go overseas.

Sadly the only way we can see Japanese players getting the chance to put up great career numbers would involve basically destroying the talent-level of the Japanese leagues.

[westsidegrounds]

The Japanese seem to be very proud of their baseball leagues and their baseball players, and don't want all the best players travelling halfway around the world to play in a foreign country instead of in Japan.


Strange, hmmm?

[Koufax Shoulda Been a Yankee]

I think Ichiro has a good chance. A man that hits singles and gets on base so consistantly when most players hit home runs or nothing?? No, I don't think he'll beat Rose, even if he plays as long as Julio Franco, but if Rose can't be the top hitter in Cooperstown, why not Ichiro??

I think we also must remember who does the voting....media men don't like people for different reasons, and for all i've heard (which i admit is not too much) Ichiro is a bit of a diva...but that may be wrong

[Ichiro51]

The Japanese seem to be very proud of their baseball leagues and their baseball players, and don't want all the best players travelling halfway around the world to play in a foreign country instead of in Japan.


Strange, hmmm?

There is a rule in Japan where you must play in the league for ten seasons before you can file for free agency, guys like Ichiro, Ishii, Otsuka played nine because teams want some money in return than having them play an extra year and end up getting nothing back when they jump to the Majors. There are couple pitchers in Japan right now, Diasuke Matsuzaka, Koji Uehara etc haven't reach the ninth year yet, but remember those names, they'll be in the Majors within the future.

[moebarguy]

Ishii should have stayed in Japan... :ughh

[stengelise]

Does anyone besides me think that one day Ichiro will be in the HOF? He is going to eventually break the career hit record but does anyone think he will be held out ?

I think Ichiro has a great chance for the Hall assuming he plays the required 10 years. Sometimes I think he or Hideki Matsui might go back to Japan to end their careers. As for the career hit record, I think thats a stretch because he came to the majors at a relatively old age. Ichiro is a player I make a point of going to see each year.

[J W]

Ichiro averaged 236 hits per 162 games coming into this season, and it sure doesn't look like he's slowing down. To be fair, yes, he entered the majors just as his peak was entering full-form.

236 hits a season is still amazing. He's obviously been durable; his actual hits/season measures out to 231. And he's a darn good defender.

Not only does he hold the major league record for hits is a season (262), he also is one of two players (Sisler) to hold two of the top ten such seasons in history (262, 242).

I think he will be a lock if:
a) he continues this peak for a couple more years
b) reaches roughly 2000 hits

Being a significant part of a championship team wouldn't hurt either (see: Robbie Alomar).

[J W]

Actually, I think 236 hits per 162 would be a major league record in itself! Check it out:

Orr - 230
Delahanty - 229
Browning - 225
Cobb - 224
Keeler - 224
Sisler - 222
Brouthers - 222
Hamilton - 220
Anson - 219
Stenzel - 217
Jackson J - 216
O' rourke - 214
Lajoie - 212
Hornsby - 210
Gwynn - 209
Terry - 206
Speaker - 204

Can anyone find a higher number than Ichiro's?

[Cougar]

He's got a major single season record, which is a good start, 4 200-hit seasons, 2 batting titles, a SB title, 4 GG, 4 ASG, a ROY, and an MVP. There are HOF who don't have accomplishments such as these over an entire career -- Ichiro's done it in four seasons.

Hell of a start.

Despite the fact that Suzuki started his career very late, absent a major falloff in performance I think he is more likely than not to be a HOFer.

[ADunn44]

Too bad Ichiro can't be a player/manager in his late 30s-early 40s so he can start himself over better players and make a mockery of the game... :cool:



hahaha, Pete Rose didn't make a mockery of the game and Ichiro has no chance in hell of breaking Pete Rose's hit record

[Gamingboy]

Ichiro got 1278 hits in Japan, as of yesterday he had 962 hits in America, on pace for 220 for this season. So at the end of the season, he'd have 1144 hits in America. Now, if he hit 200 hits for 10 more seasons (until he was 41), he'd end up with 3144 hits in America, along with 1278 hits in Japan, adding up to 4422 hits in total.

Pete Rose got 4256 career hits.......

So I guess Ichiro could have a very, very slight chance for the world record, although maybe not the Major league one....

I say put him in anyway, simply because to be that good in both Japan and America means he has to be good. And besides, we wouldn't want the Japanese believe that the HOF is a club of snobs.

[Captain Cold Nose]

I say put him in anyway, simply because to be that good in both Japan and America means he has to be good. And besides, we wouldn't want the Japanese believe that the HOF is a club of snobs.
Considering the long-time refusal to allow Japanese players to play over here and the historical treatment of Gaijin in Japan, no, of course not.

[ADunn44]

Ichiro got 1278 hits in Japan, as of yesterday he had 962 hits in America, on pace for 220 for this season. So at the end of the season, he'd have 1144 hits in America. Now, if he hit 200 hits for 10 more seasons (until he was 41), he'd end up with 3144 hits in America, along with 1278 hits in Japan, adding up to 4422 hits in total.

Pete Rose got 4256 career hits.......

So I guess Ichiro could have a very, very slight chance for the world record, although maybe not the Major league one....

I say put him in anyway, simply because to be that good in both Japan and America means he has to be good. And besides, we wouldn't want the Japanese believe that the HOF is a club of snobs.


they won;t count his 1278 hits at all, not going by ML standards at least, so he have 3144 career hits in the ML, but will that make him a HoFer, only if he keeps playing as hard as he is right now, up to the point where he can retire be assured the HoF, but break the hit record, no chance

[mac195]

the historical treatment of Gaijin in Japan

You mean back in the Edo Period (1600-1860) when they closed the country to all outsiders on pain of decapitation by samaurai sword? Holding that against Ichiro is a little harsh doncha think? :D

[Captain Cold Nose]

You mean back in the Edo Period (1600-1860) when they closed the country to all outsiders on pain of decapitation by samaurai sword? Holding that against Ichiro is a little harsh doncha think? :D
My world view has been shaped by the James boys. Clavell and Michener. :laugh

[mac195]

Michener is great. Clavell... I started out to read "Shogun" once when I was lying in a hospital bed in Japan. I put it down though, after he had one character, who was supposed to be an expert in Japanese, introduce himself as "Smith-san". Nobody ever calls himself "san", unless they want to sound like an arrogent fool. I thought if Clavell couldn't get something as simple as that right, he must not really know very much about Japan after all.

[leecemark]

--Mac, as you must know as well as anyone, when you are speaking a language learned later in life it is easy to sound like a fool. I know some very intelligent, well educated people who have English as a second language and they frequently make grammatical errors and poor usages (hell, if you've read many of my posts you know I frequently make grammatical errors and poor use of the English language myself).
--I know I must have seemed quite simple minded trying to communicate in Japanese during the years I lived over there. Anyway, if you can forgive an few errors in the details, I thought Shogun was a great read. I don't remember Ichiro's part in it though :laugh.

[mac195]

I know I must have seemed quite simple minded trying to communicate in Japanese during the years I lived over there.

I know I still do, which is why I appreciate the fact that the Japanese don't really expect foreigners to ever master their language.

[king_ghidora]

We're getting completely off-topic on whether or not Ichiro is a Hall Of Famer. The answer: Obviously, yes. To anybody who thinks about it rationally, Ichiro is certain to be the first Japanese player in the HOF.

All you really have to say is: 262 hits. Who cares if he doesn't hit as many homers as some would prefer? Who cares what year he was born in? Nobody in history has ever hit 262 hits before. Not Boggs, not Rose, not Gwynn, and not even Cobb or Sisler (when it was easier to do so with pitchers throwing 9 innings off of a shorter mound). Nobody has ever done what Ichiro did.

Negro League players like Buck Leonard and Cool Papa Bell are all enshrined in Cooperstown, as they should be. Clearly the Hall doesn't discriminate against players who couldn't play in the Majors due to conditions of their birth. There were many who didn't think the Negro League players should've been admitted due to lack of career records (and, of course, many had racist reasons). Ichiro faces similar resistence (both statistically and racially). But here's the facts: he's been a Rookie Of The Year, an MVP, a batting title, a silver slugger, four gold gloves and counting, and most importantly a Major League Record that nobody thought would ever be broken. He could draw a lot more walks if he wanted to, but he enjoys getting the offense going with hits. He was also part of another Baseball record: 116 wins, without the help of Griffey, A-Rod or Buhner. His speed, his fielding, his arm (which has to be seen to believed; the man is like a long-range sniper), and most importantly, his hits will assuredly land him in the Hall Of Fame on the first ballot.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

hahaha, Pete Rose didn't make a mockery of the game and Ichiro has no chance in hell of breaking Pete Rose's hit record
Rose abused his position of manager to start himself of far more deserving players. In 1985 he had a group of young up and coming players like Kal Daniels, Nick Esasky, Eric Davis, and Gary Redus who would have made great first basemen. Yet, Rose started himself over them to break Cobb's record. Or do you think a 44 year old first baseman that slugs .319 is useful?

Given that Ichiro already has over 2200 hits at age 31, saying he has no chance is kind of silly, don't you think...

[MudvilleMike]

Ichiro definitely deserves to be in the HOF. If there's any doubt, his performance in Japan should be factored into the equation.

[moebarguy]

Rose abused his position of manager to start himself of far more deserving players. In 1985 he had a group of young up and coming players like Kal Daniels, Nick Esasky, Eric Davis, and Gary Redus who would have made great first basemen. Yet, Rose started himself over them to break Cobb's record. Or do you think a 44 year old first baseman that slugs .319 is useful?

Given that Ichiro already has over 2200 hits at age 31, saying he has no chance is kind of silly, don't you think...

Ichiro has 1,001 hits in the MLB (including this season)...

[Yankees]

SEASON TEAM G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB BB SO SB CS OBP SLG AVG
2001 Seattle Mariners 157 692 127 242 34 8 8 69 316 30 53 56 14 .381 .457 .350
2002 Seattle Mariners 157 647 111 208 27 8 8 51 275 68 62 31 15 .388 .425 .321
2003 Seattle Mariners 159 679 111 212 29 8 13 62 296 36 69 34 8 .352 .436 .312
2004 Seattle Mariners 161 704 101 262 24 5 8 60 320 49 63 36 11 .414 .455 .372
2005 Seattle Mariners 31 127 21 42 6 2 2 11 58 12 13 10 3 .386 .457 .331
Career Totals 665 2849 471 966 120 31 39 253 1265 195 260 167 51 .384 .444 .339

[Pghfan987]

Assuming that Ichiro doesn't get caught betting on the Mariners to win the division (or lose), there is absolutely no doubt that he will be a first ballot HOFer.

4 GGs- the greatest corner OFer of his time
career BA will end up over .333
will end up with over 400 steals
1 ROY
1 MVP
2 Batting Titles (so far, just in America)

There is no question he will make it. The only question is, how does he compare to the greatest baseball players in history?

Mark

[Edgartohof]

Ichiro has 1,001 hits in the MLB (including this season)...

Where'd you pull that number from??????

up to and including tonight, he has 966 hits in the MLB.

[Bagwell's Third Shoulder]

Ichiro got 1278 hits in Japan, as of yesterday he had 962 hits in America, on pace for 220 for this season. So at the end of the season, he'd have 1144 hits in America. Now, if he hit 200 hits for 10 more seasons (until he was 41), he'd end up with 3144 hits in America, along with 1278 hits in Japan, adding up to 4422 hits in total.

Pete Rose got 4256 career hits.......

So I guess Ichiro could have a very, very slight chance for the world record, although maybe not the Major league one....


Then you might as well count Pete Rose's minor league career hit total, if we're going to count inferior leagues. Let's throw in his prison softball hit count as well.

[plask_stirlac]

He'll make it. .429 in 76 games after the 2004 ASB? Dominant. He has an MVP, 172 SB in a slugger's era, and of course the hitting.

I don't know if I'd have any other defender, ever, in RF who regularly played it.

[Brad Harris]

ESPN's Jim Caple writes about Ichiro's 1,000th hit (http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=caple/offbase/050615) and whether Cooperstown voters should be thinking in terms of 1,000 or 2,300 hits right now.

[DoubleX]

I think it's fine to consider the accomplishments of Japanese players from when they played in Japan, but I don't think we should combine those numbers with their MLB numbers as Caple seems to suggest. It's not the same - the numbers aren't the same and weren't compiled in the same environment. I believe Ichiro and Hideki Matsui and any who follow them should be treated similarly to players that played in both the Negro Leagues and Majors, such as Monte Irvin. We don't combine Irvin's numbers from both leagues and say he had this many homeruns, but we do acknowledge that in addition to being a fine Major Leaguer, he was a terrific player in the Negro Leagues and thus put him in the Hall. Same should be done for Ichiro and any player that comes to the Majors after player a good portion of their career in another professional league. So yes, when the time comes for Ichiro to be considered for the Hall, his Japanese accomplishments should be considered, but not combined with his Major League accomplishments (which should be considered separately, but in light of the fact that he had no choice but to have a short career in the Majors).

[gooddoc24]

Ichiro is still a ways away. If he plays at least another eight years or so after this season and continues to put up the same numbers than I think he is a lock. He will be 32 years old this October so to some degree time may be against him. Remember that this is only his fifth season in Major League Baseball after playing eight years in Japan. Too bad he did not arrive here a little bit sooner.

[king_ghidora]

Ichiro is still a ways away. If he plays at least another eight years or so after this season and continues to put up the same numbers than I think he is a lock. He will be 32 years old this October so to some degree time may be against him. Remember that this is only his fifth season in Major League Baseball after playing eight years in Japan. Too bad he did not arrive here a little bit sooner.

Saying it's too bad Ichiro didn't arrive a bit sooner is like saying it's too bad Satchel Paige didn't arrive a bit sooner. He didn't because he couldn't - the Japanese baseball league is tough to get out of once you're in, and there had never been a starting position player from Japan before Ichiro The point is, not only was he great in Japan, but he's been a great one here. More than great, in fact - breaking a record like the hits record was conceivable to a lot of people before Ichiro. He's a lock right now, in the same way Sandy Koufax was a lock in only ten short (though dominant) years.

[J W]

I believe that as soon as Ichiro plays his 10th major league season, he'll be almost assured a spot in the HOF. I'm assuming that he'll carry something somewhat close to his averages through the next 5.5 years.

...but unless MLB starts inducting the Sadaharu Ohs and Masaichi Kanedas of the world, they won't give a special exemption to Mr. Suzuki.

Speaking of which, how long is his current contract for, and has there been any word from him regarding his plans after the contract is up?

[J W]

The only question is, how does he compare to the greatest baseball players in history?

Ichiro at the plate is very much like George Sisler, the man whose record he broke. Adding in his OF defense, I'm not sure who he reminds me of.

[leecemark]

--Ichiro signed a 4 year deal before last season. He'll be at 7 seasons and age 34 when its up. Haven't heard that he has made any decisions about his career beyond that point.

[ADunn44]

Rose abused his position of manager to start himself of far more deserving players. In 1985 he had a group of young up and coming players like Kal Daniels, Nick Esasky, Eric Davis, and Gary Redus who would have made great first basemen. Yet, Rose started himself over them to break Cobb's record. Or do you think a 44 year old first baseman that slugs .319 is useful?

Given that Ichiro already has over 2200 hits at age 31, saying he has no chance is kind of silly, don't you think...


hey Honus, as of right now, Ichiro has 1010 hits in the MLB

at this point he still needs 3247 to break the record, he would have to play 16 more seasons, and get 203 hits per season to even tie it, and he has already played 5 season, so he would have to play a total of 21 seasons, and by that time ther year will be 2021, and he'll be 47-48, which won't happen, 4256 hits will stand way beyond we are alive, as will Cap Ripken's Record

[Honus Wagner Rules]

hey Honus, as of right now, Ichiro has 1010 hits in the MLB

at this point he still needs 3247 to break the record, he would have to play 16 more seasons, and get 203 hits per season to even tie it, and he has already played 5 season, so he would have to play a total of 21 seasons, and by that time ther year will be 2021, and he'll be 47-48, which won't happen, 4256 hits will stand way beyond we are alive, as will Cap Ripken's Record

I'm counting his hits in Japan as well. Obviously, he won't break Pete Rose's major league record but he might be able to surpass his hit total. Yes, Rose's record will probably stand for a while because Rose abused his position as manager to get by Cobb. I lost all respect for Rose when he did that.

[ADunn44]

o, my mistake

[jtannillo]

Ichiro is still in his early 30s. With the shape that he is in I don't think it is impossible for him to still play another 15 years. Julio franco is 47 for crying out load and he is nowhere near the hitter ichiro is. If ichiro hits like he does for another 15 years untill he is Francos age he will have compiled over 4300 hits. The would be the record. I don't think that is unlikely

[Barnstormer]

Ichiro is still in his early 30s. With the shape that he is in I don't think it is impossible for him to still play another 15 years. Julio franco is 47 for crying out load and he is nowhere near the hitter ichiro is. If ichiro hits like he does for another 15 years untill he is Francos age he will have compiled over 4300 hits. The would be the record. I don't think that is unlikely

Are you kidding? Getting over 200 hits per season every year for 15 years until age 48 is "not unlikely"? It's extremely unlikely, virtually impossible. It's like saying that A-Rod is in pretty good shape so he should hit 40 HRs every year for the next 18 years and finish with 1,200 homers. Franco is a unique case in all the history of baseball, no position player has EVER played as regularly at his age. Ichiro won't get the MLB hits record but if he had started earlier, he's the only guy of the last 25 years who would have had any chance at all. He's a hall of famer.

[egautographs]

No, I don't think he's kidding. Ichiro keeps himself in shape better than anyone, anyone notice that's he wasn't ever injured once when playing here in the States? He doesn't seem to show signs of slowing down either. 4300 hits may be unlikely, but 3000 is in his range.

[leecemark]

--About 50 points of Ichiro's BA come from his legs. That will be tough to sustain in his late 30s or into his 40s no matter how good of shape he keeps himself in. If he wants to play that long he will need to develop some "old player skills". Walking more and hitting for more power is the way to stay productive into your baseball old age. Ichiro probably could add some power to his game, but when he has tried to be more patient it has hurt his game before.
--I'd like to see him get his 10 years to be Cooperstown eligible, and I think he'll make the Hall if he stays in MLB that long. 3,000 hits is pretty much out of the question though (although his combined JL/MLB hits should easily surpass that) and the hits record something not even worth bring up.

[Senor Octobre]

And like Bonds, you don't go get a beer when Ichiro comes to bat.

Sorry friend, can't agree with you here. While I appreciate what Ichiro brings to the table, I'd honestly rather get a beer than see him hit another single, unless it was kicking off a late innings rally. Don't get me wrong, I'm not one of the people who knocks him for just hitting singles, but I don't put him in the "postponed beer run" category. Guys like Bonds, Guerrero, Pujols, Ortiz etc, you don't want to miss, but I think I'll live if I miss a single, unless its, like I said, sparking a late rally.

[Barnstormer]

Sorry friend, can't agree with you here. While I appreciate what Ichiro brings to the table, I'd honestly rather get a beer than see him hit another single, unless it was kicking off a late innings rally. Don't get me wrong, I'm not one of the people who knocks him for just hitting singles, but I don't put him in the "postponed beer run" category. Guys like Bonds, Guerrero, Pujols, Ortiz etc, you don't want to miss, but I think I'll live if I miss a single, unless its, like I said, sparking a late rally.

But Ichiro apparently isn't incapable of hitting with some power. According to ESPN stats, Ichiro averaged 20 HRs per 162 games in Japan, while in the U.S. he is averaging less than 10. .522 slugging vs. .442 in the U.S., though his B.A. wasn't that much higher (.353 vs. .336). I don't know enough about Japanese baseball to explain this (park size? pitching? change in his batting strategy) but it seems significant.

[The Splendid Splinter]

--About 50 points of Ichiro's BA come from his legs. That will be tough to sustain in his late 30s or into his 40s no matter how good of shape he keeps himself in. If he wants to play that long he will need to develop some "old player skills". Walking more and hitting for more power is the way to stay productive into your baseball old age. Ichiro probably could add some power to his game, but when he has tried to be more patient it has hurt his game before.
--I'd like to see him get his 10 years to be Cooperstown eligible, and I think he'll make the Hall if he stays in MLB that long. 3,000 hits is pretty much out of the question though (although his combined JL/MLB hits should easily surpass that) and the hits record something not even worth bring up.


I think Ichiro will become like Tony Gwynn when he got older. He hit for more power and gets more extra bases. I think instead of infield singles from Ichiro, we'll see blooper singles in the outfields and hitting the gaps for doubles. I'm thinking when he gets to his mid to late 30's, he'll have less singles, more doubles, less triples, more HRs (around 15 or so), less steals (still around 10-15), and BA around the same or even higher.

I don't know if he'll walk more just because his style of baseball, but I think he'll keep his Ks down though.

[The Splendid Splinter]

But Ichiro apparently isn't incapable of hitting with some power. According to ESPN stats, Ichiro averaged 20 HRs per 162 games in Japan, while in the U.S. he is averaging less than 10. .522 slugging vs. .442 in the U.S., though his B.A. wasn't that much higher (.353 vs. .336). I don't know enough about Japanese baseball to explain this (park size? pitching? change in his batting strategy) but it seems significant.

He is capable, but he doesn't play that style of baseball. He is a deadball type of player. I think if he wanted to hit with power, he can. While I'm not saying that he can hit like 30 or 35 HRs, but I think his maximium would be probably 25, only if he was swinging for the fences. His BA would go down too, to probably .290 range.

You could say Tony Gwynn wasn't capable to hit with power. From age 22 to 33, he had only one season with 10+ HRs (with 14), 7 HRs was his next highest. From age 34 to 41, He had 4 seasons of 10+ HRs (17,16,12,10), 9 HR was his next highest. He had more than half of his HRs in the last 8 years of his career.

[jpenrod]

We are seriously talking about a player that has been in the league for 4 years (5 counting this year) and a player that has been in the league for 2(3) years as locks for the hall of fame?

[Barnstormer]

We are seriously talking about a player that has been in the league for 4 years (5 counting this year) and a player that has been in the league for 2(3) years as locks for the hall of fame?

By that logic, Satchel Paige only played 5 years in the majors. What is he doing in the Hall?

The answer: he was legendary in another professional league and couldn't play in the majors earlier for circumstances beyond his control. Ichiro's case is similar but way stronger as he has "legendary" accomplishments in the majors as well.

[jpenrod]

By that logic, Satchel Paige only played 5 years in the majors. What is he doing in the Hall?

The answer: he was legendary in another professional league and couldn't play in the majors earlier for circumstances beyond his control. Ichiro's case is similar but way stronger as he has "legendary" accomplishments in the majors as well.


There are a couple of differences between Satchel and Ichiro. First and Foremost Satchel Paige played at a time period that would NOT allow him to play on the same field as white Major League players. Ichiro was never denied that opportunity based on race. It may not have been easy for him to come to america and play in the Majors but to my knowledge there is no social barrier that would have prevented it. Secondly Mr. Paige was inducted to the HOF for his accomplishments in the negro leagues and therefore he was inducted as a Negro Leaguer not as a Player. Yes, the HOF does make that distinction in fact there is a special commitee for Negro Leaguers. If you want to suggest that the Hall of Fame should create a special category for Japanese League Players that is an entirely different discussion than if Ichiro or Matsui belong in the Hall of Fame as a Player based on their Major League performance. To be honest I am a little appaled that you would compar Satchel Paige's situation to Ichiro's

[Barnstormer]

There are a couple of differences between Satchel and Ichiro. First and Foremost Satchel Paige played at a time period that would NOT allow him to play on the same field as white Major League players. Ichiro was never denied that opportunity based on race. It may not have been easy for him to come to america and play in the Majors but to my knowledge there is no social barrier that would have prevented it. Secondly Mr. Paige was inducted to the HOF for his accomplishments in the negro leagues and therefore he was inducted as a Negro Leaguer not as a Player. Yes, the HOF does make that distinction in fact there is a special commitee for Negro Leaguers. If you want to suggest that the Hall of Fame should create a special category for Japanese League Players that is an entirely different discussion than if Ichiro or Matsui belong in the Hall of Fame as a Player based on their Major League performance. To be honest I am a little appaled that you would compar Satchel Paige's situation to Ichiro's

Well, I certainly didn't mean to appall you.

Ichiro requested to be released from his Japanese team for several years until they finally sold him to the Mariners. He was legally bound to the Orix Blue Wave until that time, so in that respect his being kept out of MLB was beyond his control.

I was only trying to make the point that his years in Japan will be taken into account, and will enable him to get elected even if his MLB career looks "short" when it's all over.

Perhaps Satchel Paige isn't the best comparison, better would be Monte Irvin, who moved from the Negro Leagues to the Majors at age 30, thus he didn't accomplish enough in the Negro Leagues to be considered a N.L. Hall-of-Famer (like Paige), or have a long enough Major League career to get in based only on his Major League stats. But he got in, for one of two reasons: 1) his Major League performance was good enough to demonstrate that had he been in the majors during those first 10 years, he would have put together a HOF career, or 2) the committee decided to acknowledge his great performance in the Negro Leagues and "add" it together with his major league performance.

This is something like what I could see happening with Ichiro, say if for some reason he would only play 8 or 9 years in the Majors, which normally wouldn't be enough to be eligible for the Hall. His japanese league years would be taken into account and he would be on the ballot.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

There are a couple of differences between Satchel and Ichiro. First and Foremost Satchel Paige played at a time period that would NOT allow him to play on the same field as white Major League players. Ichiro was never denied that opportunity based on race. It may not have been easy for him to come to america and play in the Majors but to my knowledge there is no social barrier that would have prevented it. Secondly Mr. Paige was inducted to the HOF for his accomplishments in the negro leagues and therefore he was inducted as a Negro Leaguer not as a Player. Yes, the HOF does make that distinction in fact there is a special commitee for Negro Leaguers. If you want to suggest that the Hall of Fame should create a special category for Japanese League Players that is an entirely different discussion than if Ichiro or Matsui belong in the Hall of Fame as a Player based on their Major League performance. To be honest I am a little appaled that you would compar Satchel Paige's situation to Ichiro's

There is a ban on Major league teams from scouting and signing Japanese players (high school players and college players). It is an agreement between MLB and Japan. So in effect Ichiro was banned from playing in the American major leagues because of where he was born.

[oscargamblesfro]

what hall of famer ( or near hall of famer) is ichiro most like?

off the top of my head i'd say a poor man's paul waner with speed, or max carey with a better stick, or a kind of super jack tobin with a good glove. the point is, i'm having trouble comparing him to someone else!.. there must be better comparisons by others

[jalbright]

Ichiro is such a singles hitter, he's tough to pigeonhole, and then when you throw in the Japanese play issue, it makes it tougher. That said, you may find this article helps: http://baseballguru.com/jalbright/analysisjalbright31.html It was written after last season, but I doubt the list of comparisons has changed all that much.

Jim Albright

[Joltin' Joe]

Gotta be someone from the Dead Ball Era. Tip O'Neil and Wee Willie Keeler. I would say Wee Willie. They both hit 'em where they ain't, got a gazillion hits a year, not much plate discipline, not much power, stole a lot of bases, and definitely knew how to hit. Plus they were both little guys that played RF.

[oscargamblesfro]

Ichiro is such a singles hitter, he's tough to pigeonhole, and then when you throw in the Japanese play issue, it makes it tougher. That said, you may find this article helps: http://baseballguru.com/jalbright/analysisjalbright31.html It was written after last season, but I doubt the list of comparisons has changed all that much.

Jim Albright


very interesting article! i knew i wasn't too far off the mark with tobin, a decent player- though ichiro's much better.

[538280]

I agree with Joltin Joe, it would have to be Keeler. They both had basically the same hitting abilities (classic singles hitter without much power or plate discipline), same position, good speed. The only real difference is that Ichiro is quite a bit better in the field.

Ichiro is the exact opposite of the player I support.....I'd probably call Ichiro the most overrated player in my lifetime. People will just never realize singles hitters are horribly inefficient. Most of the time they don't walk, and they don't hit for extra bases. I'd take a slugger like Adam Dunn over Ichiro any day. When it comes time to debate this issue in say, 10 years, I won't support Ichiro for the HOF (unless he has about 3 more 2004 esque years), but I'm sure I'll be in the distinct minority.

[leecemark]

--I'd say Ichiro is a much better defender and baserunner than Keeler. I see him as more like George Sisler. Hopefully he'll stay healthy and have a better second half of his career though.

[Joltin' Joe]

I'd take a slugger like Adam Dunn over Ichiro any day. When it comes time to debate this issue in say, 10 years, I won't support Ichiro for the HOF (unless he has about 3 more 2004 esque years), but I'm sure I'll be in the distinct minority.

Mr. October, taking defense & base running skills out of the picture, would you take the 2004 Dunn or the 2004 Ichiro?

[538280]

Mr. October, taking defense & base running skills out of the picture, would you take the 2004 Dunn or the 2004 Ichiro?

There was actually a poll about that in the History forum a while back. I'd take Dunn, even though when also including defense/baserunning, it's very close. Hitting isn't even close.

[digglahhh]

I'm tired of hearing the Dunn/Ichiro comparisons.

Take Dunn over Ichiro for what, to hit clean-up- sure. To help you move- yeah.

There are different types of greatness, some of you SABR guys don't get this. Player's do not have to fit some pre-ordained equation of productivity to be wonderful. Ichiro is incredibly gifted, in ways different than the gifts possesed by Adam Dunn. Comparing the two is the proverbial apples and oranges.

[Joltin' Joe]

There was actually a poll about that in the History forum a while back. I'd take Dunn, even though when also including defense/baserunning, it's very close. Hitting isn't even close.

I respectfully disagree with Mr. October.

'04 Ichiro
7.68 RC/27
0.173 RC/PA
.315 EQA
127 EQR
69 BRAR
48 BRAA

'04 Dunn
7.86 RC/27
0.182 RC/PA
.315 EQA
116 EQR
63 BRAR
49 BRAA

It's actually very close. I wouldn't argue with anyone for going either way but you said it wasn't even close, which just isn't true.

Ichiro's home park hurt him a lot more than the adjustment show. He batted well over .400 on the road. Based on that, I give him the edge over Dunn.

Of course we're not even talking about Ichiro's wheels, leather, & cannon....but that is a whole another topic.

[tonjes]

the answer is ichiro.

[ElHalo]

Sisler does seem like a good comparison, though Sisler had a whole lot more power than Ichiro.

[leecemark]

HR per 162
Sisler 8, Ichiro 12 (after a new high of 15 this year)
--Sisler did play his first few years in the deadball era, but he played most of his career in a very easy park for LH hitters to homer in and the majority of that in the live ball period.

[Zito75]

Joe Jackson- Well in my book anyway.

[538280]

Joe Jackson- Well in my book anyway.

How do you figure Joe Jackson? For his time, Jackson was actually a slugger. His raw numbers may look similar to Ichiro, but you have to consider that Jackson was playing in the deadball era and Ichiro in the offense inflated recent years. Jackson wasn't a great fielder by any means, Ichiro is great in the field. Jackson has a 145 Rel. SLG%, Ichiro has a 106 Rel. SLG. I don't think I need to say anymore. I'm not a Joe Jackson supporter by any means (I am actually a huge Joe Jackson criticizer), but he is far, far better than Ichiro, and not particularly similar to him either.

[ElHalo]

HR per 162
Sisler 8, Ichiro 12 (after a new high of 15 this year)
--Sisler did play his first few years in the deadball era, but he played most of his career in a very easy park for LH hitters to homer in and the majority of that in the live ball period.

Before this season, just doing a very rough sketch from BBRef, Ichiro's four seasons in the bigs, he had SLG+ of 110, 104, 103, and 108. His career high in SLG, .457 his rookie year, was 85 points too low to crack the top 10 in the league.

Sisler's four best SLG+ seasons were 156, 142, 141, and 140.

So yes, I'd say it's entirely fair to say that Sisler had a whole lot more power than Ichiro.

[ElHalo]

How do you figure Joe Jackson? For his time, Jackson was actually a slugger. His raw numbers may look similar to Ichiro, but you have to consider that Jackson was playing in the deadball era and Ichiro in the offense inflated recent years. Jackson wasn't a great fielder by any means, Ichiro is great in the field. Jackson has a 145 Rel. SLG%, Ichiro has a 106 Rel. SLG. I don't think I need to say anymore. I'm not a Joe Jackson supporter by any means (I am actually a huge Joe Jackson criticizer), but he is far, far better than Ichiro, and not particularly similar to him either.

My only point of contention here: Regardless of what the stats say, Jackson was, in his day, considered to be an absolutely tremendous fielder, with a cannon arm. He played LF instead of RF because, in his day, the need to cut off triples was much greater, and so the better corner OF with the better arm often played in LF (see Delahanty, Ed).

[leecemark]

--Aren't alot more triples to RF than LF? Didn't Jackson switch from RF to LF mid-career (almost always a sign of declining defense)? The reviews on Jackson's defense, then and now, are mixed. He was often portrayed much like Ted Williams or even Manny Ramirez, as a guy who didn't really give his all defensively. Some of his buildup came up in the general romaniticized picture of him that his apologists have developed over the years.

[Cubsfan97]

if his average got higher i'd say wagner.

[538280]

if his average got higher i'd say wagner.

Another absolutely ludicrous comparison. Just look at this:

Rel. SLG%
Wagner-133
Ichiro-106

In today's baseball, Wagner would probably be a 40 HR man. Wagner wasn't a slap hitter by any means. He had first class power.

[Williamsburg2599]

If Ichiro keeps going at the same rate he is going,will he be in the hall? and how long will it take for him to get there?

[rockin500]

depends on how long you consider. I would say he has to continue the pace he is on for at least another 4 years (maybe 5 or 6) and then have a decent decline phase.

his problem is that he came here pretty late.

[RobertHConner]

Unless he can keep it up for a freakishly long time I don't think he's a serious contender. It doesn't really matter if he was great in Japan. I hear people say that the Hall makes exceptions for people who played in both the Negro Leagues and the majors. There is one major difference that I can't get past though. A player from Japan had a choice. Most of the guys who thrived in the Negro Leagues couldn't try to peddle their wares in the majors. Tuffy Rhodes hit over 300 HR in Japan in 10 seasons. He is a spring training invitee for the Reds this year. From 1990 to 1995 he hit a whopping 13 HR in 225 games for the Astros, Cubs & Red Sox.

Ichiro is a great player, but I don't believe you can waive the 10-year service requirement for eligibility for any player who had the choice to play in the majors. If he can stick around for ten years & produce sufficient stats, then I think one would have to at least consider him. Until then I say it's a moot point.

[rockin500]

Ichiro is a great player, but I don't believe you can waive the 10-year service requirement for eligibility for any player who had the choice to play in the majors. If he can stick around for ten years & produce sufficient stats, then I think one would have to at least consider him. Until then I say it's a moot point.

which is why i said he would have to do it for at least 4 more years and the decline phase. If he started declining from this point for the remaining 5 years til the 10 years service time, he wont make it. I think he needs at least 8 excellent years with 2 good years to even merit discussion.

Let's revisit this in 3 years :)

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Unless he can keep it up for a freakishly long time I don't think he's a serious contender. It doesn't really matter if he was great in Japan. I hear people say that the Hall makes exceptions for people who played in both the Negro Leagues and the majors. There is one major difference that I can't get past though. A player from Japan had a choice.
This idea has been thoroughly debunked, mainly by Jim Albright. The Japanese players never had a choice to play here until the mid 1990s. Professional baseball in Japan didn't really take off until after WWII. Given the political climate right after WWII it's was extremely unlikely that a Japanese players would have been welcomed in the 1940s and 1950s. By the 1960s when it was apparent that Japan had some great baseball talent an international controversy exploded when the s.F. Giants tried to sign a Japanese player. It got really ugly between MLB and Japan. I think even the State Department had to get involved.


Most of the guys who thrived in the Negro Leagues couldn't try to peddle their wares in the majors. Tuffy Rhodes hit over 300 HR in Japan in 10 seasons. He is a spring training invitee for the Reds this year. From 1990 to 1995 he hit a whopping 13 HR in 225 games for the Astros, Cubs & Red Sox.
This proves nothing. The Japanese leagues are far stronger than the Negro Leagues ever were. The Negro Leagues had top talent but had no depth.


Ichiro is a great player, but I don't believe you can waive the 10-year service requirement for eligibility for any player who had the choice to play in the majors. If he can stick around for ten years & produce sufficient stats, then I think one would have to at least consider him. Until then I say it's a moot point.

No one is saying Ichiro should be given a waiver. He is already half way to the 10 year requirement. In his first five years he has great accomplishments:

2001 RoY
2001 MVP
2 Batting Titles
5 Gold Gloves
262 hits-ML record.

He has led the AL in hits or finished second all five years. He already has 1130 hits. If Ichiro can produce at a similar lever for another five years he will easily make the HOF. I believe that some weight should be given to his Japanese performance, but I don't think he'll need the "help" since his major league performance has been stellar so far.

[dl4060]

His OPS+ is not hall of fame worthy, and he has not even entered his decline phase. However, most hall of fame voters are enamoured with batting average and flashy defensive plays. I do not have much use for him, I find players with plate discipline and power more exciting to watch, and more valuable to my team. Having said that, his career BA is .332, and even though he has an ugly swing and alot of infield hits, there is something to be said for that. If he can keep up his pace for the next few years he will find alot of supporters. The three most important tools a player can have are power, plate discipline, and an ability to make contact. Ichiro has only one of these, which means he has to be very good at that to be of much use. It would also be nice to see him post an OPS above .900 at some point. His OPS+ in only 5 seasons is just 5 points higher than Dave Kingman posted for 16 seasons. His defensive plays are fun to watch, but he is a corner outfielder, not a catcher or shortstop. The vast majority of his value comes from his offense, which is really not all that great. How many right fielders are in the hall of fame because of their defense? None I hope. I can see a shortstop getting their on defense, but not a corner outfielder. If he can keep his BA at .320 for ten seasons, he may well go in, whether people like me like it or not. I do not have a vote so my opinion does not count. If he cannot do that, he better learn to take a walk, or hit with more power.

[digglahhh]

Ichiro is one of those guys for whom you throw OPS out the window. His arm is freakish, he is fast, he hits for a great average, the accolades roll on. A few more seasons as he's had and he's in. Now his game is one that does not hold up so well with age, so that's a concern. But in generla Ichrio is a seperate case.

The one of a kind player factor is important to me, and to many others.

[The Commissioner]

I don't think he can be expected to, nor is it fair to expect him to, continue on his present pace. However, if he can get in five more seasons of just being a good player, I believe combined with his first five years of greatness, that will be enough to do it.

[TheKid8]

I think he needs to continue what he is doing for another 8 years or so

[The Commissioner]

I think he needs to continue what he is doing for another 8 years or so

So you believe that he needs to actually approach 3000 hits to get into the Hall? I'd say 2000 with his two batting titles, MVP, ROY, and magnificent fielding and base-running prowess should be more than enough to earn him a ticket.

[538280]

Ichiro is one of those guys for whom you throw OPS out the window. His arm is freakish, he is fast, he hits for a great average, the accolades roll on. A few more seasons as he's had and he's in. Now his game is one that does not hold up so well with age, so that's a concern. But in generla Ichrio is a seperate case.

The one of a kind player factor is important to me, and to many others.

Ichiro is not really a one of a kind player. Clemente is similar, but with much more power. Sam Rice is similar. Rod Carew is a similar hitter. Tony Gwynn is similar, but distinctly better. Heinie Manush was kind of similar.

What I'll never understand is why people always use Ichiro as an example that sabermetrics is missing something. What is that something? The fact he's exciting? From what I"ve seen, read, and heard, Eric Davis was just as exciting a player as Ichiro, was about even as a player, and will probably end up with similar longevity. I guess he should be in the HOF.

[DoubleX]

Ichiro is not really a one of a kind player. Clemente is similar, but with much more power. Sam Rice is similar. Rod Carew is a similar hitter. Tony Gwynn is similar, but distinctly better. Heinie Manush was kind of similar.

What I'll never understand is why people always use Ichiro as an example that sabermetrics is missing something. What is that something? The fact he's exciting? From what I"ve seen, read, and heard, Eric Davis was just as exciting a player as Ichiro, was about even as a player, and will probably end up with similar longevity. I guess he should be in the HOF.

Ichiro is a throwback in many ways. Relying on small ball and speed to get by, and he does it very well. In today's era, Ichiro is one of kind. Sure there are similar players (Juan Pierre comes to mind), but no one comes close to Ichiro in playing this type of baseball. Also, a player that can set the single-season record for hits, a record that has stood for 80+, is a tremendous and special player.

[538280]

Ichiro is a throwback in many ways. Relying on small ball and speed to get by, and he does it very well. In today's era, Ichiro is one of kind. Sure there are similar players (Juan Pierre comes to mind), but no one comes close to Ichiro in playing this type of baseball. Also, a player that can set the single-season record for hits, a record that has stood for 80+, is a tremendous and special player.

XX, I agree a player who sets the hit record is a great player. I'm not saying Ichiro isn't a great player. But I do have a problem when people use Ichiro as an example as to why sabermetrics is wrong. Sabermetrics aren't wrong, Ichiro is NOT one of the most valualble players in the game. He is exciting, and I guess by most people's definition that makes him great.

I also have a problem with using record setting performances because of Rickey Henderson. Henderson is a player countlessly used by non sabermetric people as a player saber overrates, because he has more value than greatness, supposedly. Then they say Ichiro is has greatness beyond value because he sets records, and yet Rickey holds the all time runs scored record, and stolen base record (career and single season), and far more records than Ichiro owns now or ever will own. Isn't that a contradiction?

Then they'd complain at Rickey's obnoxious behavior, and his habit for stealing bases in blowout games, and how that contributed to his records. Ichiro did a lot of things like that in 2004. I saw him play a few times that year, and it seemed all he cared about for a while was getting that record. He would try to get useless bunt singles at the expense of the team, he would never sacrifice, he was extremely impatient at the plate and would make tons of outs at the expense of walks trying to get hits. His bid for the record overall wasn't the best thing for that Mariners team. I always felt the way he approached it was extremely selfish. He did lots of things the same way Rickey did, in fact even worse becasue it was hurting the team. It seems people never mention that.

[Brad Harris]

No one in MLB history has had more hits from the ages of 27-31 than Ichiro.

1,130 Ichiro Suzuki
1,075 Jesse Burkett
1,066 Wade Boggs
1,052 Rod Carew
1,047 Lou Gehrig
1,039 Al Simmons
1,028 Stan Musial
1,023 Pete Rose
1,022 Heinie Manush
1,020 Paul Waner
1,018 Kirby Puckett
1,013 Ed Delahanty

Boldface type denotes player has been inducted into Hall of Fame.

If Ichiro comes remotely close to duplicating his 2001-05 numbers over the next five years, he gets my vote once he's passed the 10-year eligibility requirement.

[csh19792001]

No one in MLB history has had more hits from the ages of 27-31 than Ichiro.

If Ichiro comes remotely close to duplicating his 2001-05 numbers over the next five years, he gets my vote once he's passed the 10-year eligibility requirement.

Ages 27-31? How about ANY ages? :D

Ichiro now has more hits during any 5 year span than anyone in baseball history. Greatness isn't just about excitement- it's about so much more than value.... How about uniqueness- in terms of both skills and accomplishments?

Player 5-Year Span Hits Per Season Total
Ichiro Suzuki 2001-2005 242-208-212-262-196 1,130
Chuck Klein 1929-1933 219-250-200-226-223 1,118
Bill Terry 1928-1932 185-226-254-213-225 1,103
Rogers Hornsby 1920-1924 218-235-250-163-227 1,093
Rogers Hornsby 1921-1925 235-250-163-227-203 1,078
Kirby Puckett 1985-1989 199-223-207-234-215 1,078
Joe Medwick 1935-1939 224-223-237-190-201 1,075
Ty Cobb 1908-1912 188-216-194-248-226 1,072
Joe Medwick 1934-1938 198-224-223-237-190 1,072
Bill Terry 1927-1931 189-185-226-254-213 1,067
Joe Medwick 1933-1937 182-198-224-223-237 1,067

[DoubleX]

XX, I agree a player who sets the hit record is a great player. I'm not saying Ichiro isn't a great player. But I do have a problem when people use Ichiro as an example as to why sabermetrics is wrong. Sabermetrics aren't wrong, Ichiro is NOT one of the most valualble players in the game. He is exciting, and I guess by most people's definition that makes him great.

I also have a problem with using record setting performances because of Rickey Henderson. Henderson is a player countlessly used by non sabermetric people as a player saber overrates, because he has more value than greatness, supposedly. Then they say Ichiro is has greatness beyond value because he sets records, and yet Rickey holds the all time runs scored record, and stolen base record (career and single season), and far more records than Ichiro owns now or ever will own. Isn't that a contradiction?

Then they'd complain at Rickey's obnoxious behavior, and his habit for stealing bases in blowout games, and how that contributed to his records. Ichiro did a lot of things like that in 2004. I saw him play a few times that year, and it seemed all he cared about for a while was getting that record. He would try to get useless bunt singles at the expense of the team, he would never sacrifice, he was extremely impatient at the plate and would make tons of outs at the expense of walks trying to get hits. His bid for the record overall wasn't the best thing for that Mariners team. I always felt the way he approached it was extremely selfish. He did lots of things the same way Rickey did, in fact even worse becasue it was hurting the team. It seems people never mention that.

I've never come across anyone blasting sabermetrics for lauding and over-rating Henderson and then saying it doesn't do Ichiro justice. I have heard arguments in regards to the latter, but never anything about Henderson. Anyone who ways Henderson was not a great player, regardless of what any stat says, is missing something, IMO. So if what you're saying is true, I wouldn't give it much thought anyway since by saying Henderson wasn't great, the person has pretty much discredited him/herself.

[digglahhh]

Ichiro is not really a one of a kind player. Clemente is similar, but with much more power. Sam Rice is similar. Rod Carew is a similar hitter. Tony Gwynn is similar, but distinctly better. Heinie Manush was kind of similar.



You want to know another thing similar about all these guys? They're Hall of Famers!!


Oh, and the Henderson argument about the records- Rickey was a tremendous player but using his records is kind of a low blow. I would never take anything away from Rickey, but he is also #4 all time in games played and tenth in career ABs and second in BBs, that has to combine to the most PAs of all time. Rickey set some of those records with longevity too.

[The Commissioner]

Ichiro is not really a one of a kind player. Clemente is similar, but with much more power. Sam Rice is similar. Rod Carew is a similar hitter. Tony Gwynn is similar, but distinctly better. Heinie Manush was kind of similar.

What I'll never understand is why people always use Ichiro as an example that sabermetrics is missing something. What is that something? The fact he's exciting? From what I"ve seen, read, and heard, Eric Davis was just as exciting a player as Ichiro, was about even as a player, and will probably end up with similar longevity. I guess he should be in the HOF.

Why was Gwynn "distinctly better"? Don't get me wrong, Gwynn was a great player and until Ichiro wins 8 batting titles and plays for 15 more seasons (neither of which is likely to happen) it's not fair to compare the two's career achievements. Ichiro can't come close. However, if taken in their primes and compared, I'd say as an all-around ballplayer Ichiro matches up quite favorably to Gwynn.

As for the Eric Davis comparison, that doesn't hold up. At the start of Davis' career, he too looked destined for Cooperstown. However, even in his prime, Davis was nowhere near as exciting to watch as Ichiro. Keep in mind that he was playing in the same era as Coleman, Raines, Henderson, et al. While 80 and 50 stolen bases in back to back seasons are amazing, they weren't as impressive as, for example, Podsendnik's totals from the past two years are. Also, Davis was an excellent fielder. There is no denying that. However, Ichiro is one of the all-time greats. I don't know that anyone since Clemente has been that spectacular in right field. Davis was certainly an excellent power hitter which Ichiro is not. This further makes comparing the two's skills difficult. Had Eric Davis not been injured and had cancer, he certainly very well may have been a Hall of Famer as well.

[mac195]

I don't think there is much doubt that Ichiro will eventually get into the HOF. A good sabermetric case might be made against him, but after all it is the hall of fame, and he's about as famous as baseball players come. I've been watching the WBC here in Japan, and the TV cameras are always on him.

...the pitch... ball one... watch Ichiro stretch in the outfield... pitch... groundball single to left... watch Ichiro watching the play from right...

[538280]

Oh, and the Henderson argument about the records- Rickey was a tremendous player but using his records is kind of a low blow. I would never take anything away from Rickey, but he is also #4 all time in games played and tenth in career ABs and second in BBs, that has to combine to the most PAs of all time. Rickey set some of those records with longevity too.

You don't think Ichiro's 704 at-bats in 2004 helped him set that hit record?

[538280]

Why was Gwynn "distinctly better"? Don't get me wrong, Gwynn was a great player and until Ichiro wins 8 batting titles and plays for 15 more seasons (neither of which is likely to happen) it's not fair to compare the two's career achievements. Ichiro can't come close. However, if taken in their primes and compared, I'd say as an all-around ballplayer Ichiro matches up quite favorably to Gwynn.

Gwynn is a better contact hitter than Ichiro, can actually take a walk sometimes, and has more power. Look at their relative hitting lines:

..............BA......OBP.....SLG
Gwynn.....129.....118.....115
Ichiro......127.....116.....106

Gwynn is solidly ahead in SLG and has small leads in BA and OBP despite Ichiro not having a decline phase yet.

In the field, Ichiro is better but Gwynn gets a bad field rep because he didn't decline well. When he came up Gwynn was a very good fielder.

As for the Eric Davis comparison, that doesn't hold up. At the start of Davis' career, he too looked destined for Cooperstown. However, even in his prime, Davis was nowhere near as exciting to watch as Ichiro. Keep in mind that he was playing in the same era as Coleman, Raines, Henderson, et al. While 80 and 50 stolen bases in back to back seasons are amazing, they weren't as impressive as, for example, Podsendnik's totals from the past two years are. Also, Davis was an excellent fielder. There is no denying that. However, Ichiro is one of the all-time greats. I don't know that anyone since Clemente has been that spectacular in right field. Davis was certainly an excellent power hitter which Ichiro is not. This further makes comparing the two's skills difficult. Had Eric Davis not been injured and had cancer, he certainly very well may have been a Hall of Famer as well.

Davis was a better defensive player than Ichiro. It's harder to play center field. Even if he wasn't quite as exciting, he was better IMO. That is up for debate though. I personally would take Davis' power and walks over Ichiro's BA, but I can see the other side.

[Imapotato]

Ichiro is not really a one of a kind player. Clemente is similar, but with much more power. Sam Rice is similar. Rod Carew is a similar hitter. Tony Gwynn is similar, but distinctly better. Heinie Manush was kind of similar.

What I'll never understand is why people always use Ichiro as an example that sabermetrics is missing something. What is that something? The fact he's exciting? From what I"ve seen, read, and heard, Eric Davis was just as exciting a player as Ichiro, was about even as a player, and will probably end up with similar longevity. I guess he should be in the HOF.


Ya just don't get it

Many who see Ichiro, know he is a HOFer in the wings, unless something drastic happens

There ARE different players then HR and walks ya know...ya know, the guys you like to say don't belong in the Hall of Fame

Hell if Scott Posednick gets up the pace he has...he's a HOFer too

[The Commissioner]

Davis was a better defensive player than Ichiro. It's harder to play center field. Even if he wasn't quite as exciting, he was better IMO. That is up for debate though. I personally would take Davis' power and walks over Ichiro's BA, but I can see the other side.

Have you actually watched the both of them play?

[538280]

Have you actually watched the both of them play?

I've seen Ichiro, and Davis only towards the end of his career. What I say about Davis is mostly from what I've read about him

[The Commissioner]

You don't think Ichiro's 704 at-bats in 2004 helped him set that hit record?

... of course it did, but he also needed to bat .372 to get there. No one would try to argue that his achievement was necessarily any more impressive than Sisler's in 1920, but you can't downplay it either by penalizing him for having so many opportunities. The fact is that he broke an 80+ year old record and set an amazing standard in the process.

[538280]

I've never come across anyone blasting sabermetrics for lauding and over-rating Henderson and then saying it doesn't do Ichiro justice. I have heard arguments in regards to the latter, but never anything about Henderson. Anyone who ways Henderson was not a great player, regardless of what any stat says, is missing something, IMO. So if what you're saying is true, I wouldn't give it much thought anyway since by saying Henderson wasn't great, the person has pretty much discredited him/herself.

They weren't really arguing that Henderson wasn't a great player, just that statistics grossly overrate him. I have heard this from a few people, but mostly from csh19792001. I think it is a contradiction when he claims that Ichiro is greater than his stats because of records he's set, and then says Henderson is worse than his numbers, and ignores all the records that Rickey's set.

He also claimed Rickey was an extremely selfish player and that makes him worse than his numbers, when Ichiro is the same thing, or at least he acted that way in pursuit of the hit record.

[The Commissioner]

I've seen Ichiro, and Davis only towards the end of his career. What I say about Davis is mostly from what I've read about him

Then you really can't make a comparison between the fielding of the two. Books and stats don't do fielding justice. From what I've read Marty Marion may have been a better fielder than Ozzie Smith. Having never seen Marion play, I can't say either way who was greater and frankly anyone under the age of 65 who claims to be able to tell me definitively either one was better than the other can't be relied upon either.

[The Commissioner]

They weren't really arguing that Henderson wasn't a great player, just that statistics grossly overrate him. I have heard this from a few people, but mostly from csh19792001. I think it is a contradiction when he claims that Ichiro is greater than his stats because of records he's set, and then says Henderson is worse than his numbers, and ignores all the records that Rickey's set.

He also claimed Rickey was an extremely selfish player and that makes him worse than his numbers, when Ichiro is the same thing, or at least he acted that way in pursuit of the hit record.

Rickey was selfish, but I can't believe anyone would question his greatness on the field.

[abacab]

Hell if Scott Posednick gets up the pace he has...he's a HOFer too

What pace is that?

[538280]

... of course it did, but he also needed to bat .372 to get there. No one would try to argue that his achievement was necessarily any more impressive than Sisler's in 1920, but you can't downplay it either by penalizing him for having so many opportunities. The fact is that he broke an 80+ year old record and set an amazing standard in the process.

That was in response to digglahhh's assertion that Rickey's records are more because of longevity than anything else. I was just saying that the same is really true of Ichiro's record.

[leecemark]

--I've probably seen Ichiro play as much or more than anybody else at BBF (about 80% of his MLB games). He is as fundamentally sound as any OF I've ever seen. He has terrific speed and a rocket arm. He isn't very instictive though. When he and Mike Cameron were in the same OF there was no doubt which was better.
--Cammie was always off at the crack of the bat and ran great routes, seldom needing to look back to track the ball. Ichiro usually waits to pick the ball up in flight and likes to keep it in view all the way.
--I didn't see Davis play all that much, but he seemed like a very good CFer. If he was a great CFer then he was undoubtedly a bigger defensive asset to his teams than Ichiro. One of the reasons Ichiro stands out in RF is that most great outfielders are playing CF.

[csh19792001]

That was in response to digglahhh's assertion that Rickey's records are more because of longevity than anything else. I was just saying that the same is really true of Ichiro's record.

Except the same isn't true. It's vastly harder to hit for average/hits now than it was in 1920, for a variety of reasons pertaining to the equipment, the conditions of the field, and the quality of the opposing players. The record stood for 84 years, and for good reason.

How many records that stood for that long have been broken? Think about it.

[dl4060]

Does anyone know what percentage of Ichiro's hits are of the infield variety. Just curious. Eric Davis was a sad case. I would take Eric Davis in 1987 over Ichiro any day. Davis was far more exciting to watch. An electric player, who was also very productive by statistical measures.

[mac195]

Ichiro's record is somewhat tarnished by the fact that he was going strictly for singles most of the time in the latter part of the 2004 season, even sometimes laying down bunts with runners in scoring position.

[Ubiquitous]

Rickey Henderson broke the single season stolen base record. The only guy with more is an American Association guy that had extra bases padded on to his total. If you judge Rickey based on the old criteria he broke a record held since 1887.

[DoubleX]

He also claimed Rickey was an extremely selfish player and that makes him worse than his numbers, when Ichiro is the same thing, or at least he acted that way in pursuit of the hit record.

Yeah, Rickey is probably selfish, but you can't question that the guy just loves to play baseball. You gotta respect that. All he wants to do is play, and he doesn't care where he has to go to do it.

Rickey was a very unique presence in the history of the game. A tremendous talent whose skills might actually be generally underrated, IMO. Certainly a top 40 all time player IMO, and quite possibly top 30.

[Ubiquitous]

I got Rickey as the greatest leadoff hitter of all time and at the very least the 4th best LF'er of all time. If he could have pulled off CF (yes I know he couldn't but if he did) he could very well have been a top ten player of all time. I believe I viewed him as top 25 guy.
His 1990 season is one of the greatest seasons of all time and it amazes me that all the people that gush over Ichiro or perfer these guys that are more then just numbers don't like Rickey more or talk about his 1990 season.

For me you can have 2004 Ichiro and all his infield slap singles anyday I'll take 1990 Rickey with his power, .325 average and 65 stolen bases.

[leecemark]

--Actually I think Rickey could have handled CF very well in the first half of his career. The A's already had a very good CFer in Dwayne Murphy when Rickey came up (actually they had 3 CFers for a few years with Henderson, Murphy and Armas). Henderson did play CF for a couple years after he went to the Yankees and over 400 games there in his career. His arm was a little questionable, but he covered alot of ground and was actually a terrific LFer.

[Ubiquitous]

I don't think I could call him terrific in left though I admit that it wouldn't take much to stand out in left. The competition in left for the most part is awful. Yes he played CF but that was an experiment that ended very quickly. Rickey never struck me as a guy who cared a whole lot about defense, and I don't think Rickey with his low tolerance for playing banged up could have handled the demands of centerfield for long. Rickey protected his body religiously which allowed him to play so long and so well but it came at a cost, and that was games played during a season. That cost would have been magnified by playing centerfield.

[leecemark]

--Its true that LF isn't exactly populated by defensive standouts;) . When Rickey was in his 20s I think he covered more territory in LF than anybody else in the league though. He seemed to lose interest in playing the field as his career wore on, but he was still fairly good out there in his 30s.

[The Commissioner]

--Its true that LF isn't exactly populated by defensive standouts;) . When Rickey was in his 20s I think he covered more territory in LF than anybody else in the league though. He seemed to lose interest in playing the field as his career wore on, but he was still fairly good out there in his 30s.


Doesn't just the fact that we are even tossing Ichiro's name around in the same breath as Rickey's at least speak volumes as to the former's abilities?

[Ubiquitous]

I was looking for some minor league data and came across some quotes from his minor league manager ex-cub manager Tom Trebelhorn. In the minors he played mostly left field though Tom di play him in centerfield too. Tom said that Rickey had a below average arm for a left fielder not just a centerfielder. It was that bad. To combat the are Tom worked real hard to get him to use his speed to get Rickey to the balls quickly to stop the runner from advancing, to be getting to the balls quicker and having to make a shorter throw and also to intimidate coaches into stopping runners by getting the balls quickly and looking like he could throw.

[Ubiquitous]

Doesn't just the fact that we are even tossing Ichiro's name around in the same breath as Rickey's at least speak volumes as to the former's abilities?

Well I think what is said in that breath is, Ichiro is no Rickey. or Ichiro has a long way to go to even sit in Rickey's shadow.

[leecemark]

--I think it speaks more to how far sidetracked discussions get here. Except for both being speedy outfielders Ichiro and The Rickey have little in common.

[amaral]

Now his game is one that does not hold up so well with age...

I think it is inevitable that Ichiro will not be the same player five years from now. He will be 37, and his body has taken (and will take) a beating. Here's the question: Can he adapt? Unless he becomes another Pete Rose, he won't be a speedy singles hitter. Will he try to become a power hitter when his current skills will have eroded? I once thought he was the only active Mariner with even a decent chance to break Griffey's team career HR record (maybe Sexson now, because I think he'll finish his career there) if he can't hit for average anymore. I don't think he'll do it, because he's too stubborn. However, if he does, maybe he'll appease the sabermetricians and see him for what he is/was. "Maybe he could have done that all along if he really wanted to!"

Oh, and BTW, Henderson is 4th all time with 13346 PA, behind Rose, Yaz, and Hank.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Why was Gwynn "distinctly better"? Don't get me wrong, Gwynn was a great player and until Ichiro wins 8 batting titles and plays for 15 more seasons (neither of which is likely to happen) it's not fair to compare the two's career achievements. Ichiro can't come close. However, if taken in their primes and compared, I'd say as an all-around ballplayer Ichiro matches up quite favorably to Gwynn.

As for the Eric Davis comparison, that doesn't hold up. At the start of Davis' career, he too looked destined for Cooperstown. However, even in his prime, Davis was nowhere near as exciting to watch as Ichiro. Keep in mind that he was playing in the same era as Coleman, Raines, Henderson, et al. While 80 and 50 stolen bases in back to back seasons are amazing, they weren't as impressive as, for example, Podsendnik's totals from the past two years are. Also, Davis was an excellent fielder. There is no denying that. However, Ichiro is one of the all-time greats. I don't know that anyone since Clemente has been that spectacular in right field. Davis was certainly an excellent power hitter which Ichiro is not. This further makes comparing the two's skills difficult. Had Eric Davis not been injured and had cancer, he certainly very well may have been a Hall of Famer as well.
As a major Eric Davis I must lodge a protest with the league office :D . Davis had 100 SB ability. His 1986 season was amazing:

.277/.378/.523, 80 SB, 27 HR, 97 R in only 415 ABs. Given a full season he could have stolen 100 bases. But he couldn't continue at that SB pace becasue of his fragile body and since he was not a leadoff man it didn't make sense for him to constantly steal.

[538280]

Except the same isn't true. It's vastly harder to hit for average/hits now than it was in 1920, for a variety of reasons pertaining to the equipment, the conditions of the field, and the quality of the opposing players. The record stood for 84 years, and for good reason.

How many records that stood for that long have been broken? Think about it.

How about Rickey's runs scored record? That had to be first set sometime in the 1920s. Babe Ruth's walk record was probably set then too (though Rickey doesn't hold it anymore) Or the stolen base record? I believe that was set in the 19th century so that actually stood for longer.

[538280]

Doesn't just the fact that we are even tossing Ichiro's name around in the same breath as Rickey's at least speak volumes as to the former's abilities?

No. The only reason we're talking about Rickey is because I used an example earlier when I basically said that Ichiro isn't half as great as Rickey.

[RuthMayBond]

Does anyone know what percentage of Ichiro's hits are of the infield variety. Just curious. Eric Davis was a sad case. I would take Eric Davis in 1987 over Ichiro any day. Davis was far more exciting to watch. An electric player, who was also very productive by statistical measures.Ichiro fans love to talk about his hits record. You'd think he'd pretty well up on the list of most total bases for a single season with all those hits

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/TB_season.shtml

His record-breaking season is not even in the top ONE HUNDRED of total bases. I wonder what ElHalo thinks about the record now

[Edgartohof]

As Ichiro begins to age, and slow down a little, I believe that we will see him add a little more power to his game, and could hit 20+ HR's/season.

[RuthMayBond]

Ichiro was only tied for 11th in the big league in Total Bases in '04

[Ubiquitous]

Ichiro with runners on had 83 hits for a .364 average, by comparison Manny Ramirez had 89 hits with a .328 average. Which one do you think drove in more runs?

Ichiro drove in 52 runnners Manny drove in 105. Even if you subtract the homers Manny has a 87 to 52 lead on Ichiro while only getting 6 extra hits.

Now this isn't the end all be all, but one of many factors. But I do think it shows that there is more to baseball then simply getting a hit, and that it is possible to do more with less.

[dl4060]

Ichiro's record is somewhat tarnished by the fact that he was going strictly for singles most of the time in the latter part of the 2004 season, even sometimes laying down bunts with runners in scoring position.

Absolutely. People who love to claim that Ichiro is not done justice by sabermetrics are seriously missing the point in several ways. They like to talk about players who have great skills, as opposed to players who have great value. Well in many ways, statistics overrate Ichiro's skills at the plate. When he hits a weak dribbler and uses his speed to beat it out, that is not GREAT hitting, it is VALUABLE hitting. Because Ichiro beats out poorly hit balls more often than other players, his statistical value shows him to have a higher skill level than he actually does. Think about Ted Williams in 1957. He hit .388, with 38 HR in only 420 atbats. One of the truly great seasons of his(or anyone's) career. When interviewed, he has often stated that he was more proud of that season than of his 1941 season. He reasoned that hitting .388 at age 38 was more difficult than .406 at age because at 38 he would not be able to beat out the cheap infield dribblers that a younger man might. Ted Williams had to be a much Better hitter to hit .388 in 1957 than Ichiro did to hit .372 or whatever in 04'. Ted did it by hitting hard line drives, not weak dribblers and bunts. If one only looked at batting average, one might conclude that Ichiro was almost as great a hitter(a PURE hitter, not looking at other offensive metrics) as Ted was, whereas if one watched them take batting practice it would be obvious just who was GREAT and who was statistically EFFECTIVE. When one guy steps up and hits a screaming line drive into the outfield for a single, and the next guy hits a weak little dribbler that he beats out, who is the better hitter? Statistically they are the same, but obviously it is the second guy. I get so sick of hearing people talk about how Ichiro is hurt by statistics, when in many ways he is actually helped by them. Also, if he really did bunt with runners in scoring position that is pathetic and selfish. It shows him going for a statistical goal and putting that above what is valuable to his team. I guess that is what we can expect from someone who insists on going by his first name. One more thing, in 1997 Gwynn hit .372, but 31 percent of his hits were for extra bases. In 2004 Ichiro hit .372, but onle 14 percent of his hits were for extra bases, which is very weak.

[dl4060]

Have you actually watched the both of them play?


I have, and Davis was far more exciting. It is not even close. With Eric Davis you always had the possibility of him robbing someone of a homerun and then knocking one out of the park in the same ining. Do you even remember watching Eric Davis play?

[RobertHConner]

Ichiro with runners on had 83 hits for a .364 average, by comparison Manny Ramirez had 89 hits with a .328 average. Which one do you think drove in more runs?


From 2002 to 2005 Manny is #1 in the majors w/ a .362 AVG w/ RISP. Bonds is 2nd w/ .361. Sheffield & Guerrero are tied with .35? (can't recall last digit) for 3rd.

[538280]

I have, and Davis was far more exciting. It is not even close. With Eric Davis you always had the possibility of him robbing someone of a homerun and then knocking one out of the park in the same ining. Do you even remember watching Eric Davis play?

I only got to see Davis play in his later years, when he still was a pretty good player but was certainly past his prime. I have seen Ichiro play. I must say, from what I've read I find it hard to believe that Ichiro is nearly as exciting. Here are a couple quotes about Eric Davis:

"Having Eric is like having an atomic bomb sitting next to you in the dugout"-Pete Rose

"When he goes in the game, something is going to happen."-Ray Miller

That speaks quite a bit for the excitment that is Eric Davis. Calling him an "atomic bomb" is quite a testament to how much joy he brings to watching a baseball game. Ichiro is certainly a pretty exciting player, but coudl you ever imagine anyone calling him an "atomic bomb" out there?

The people who argue that Ichiro is a truly great player despite sabermetrics always seem to talk about how exciting he was and the record he set, and how that makes him so much greater than the statistics. I personally think if you're going to make such a big deal out of excitement, you should let a guy like Eric Davis, who was just as good a player and at least just as exciting in the HOF as well.

And I still think it is a complete contradiction to claim that Ichiro is better than his statistics because of the record he set, and then also claim that Rickey Henderson is worse than his statistics, when he holds much more records, of which are also more impressive because they're over a whole career.

[digglahhh]

To those being critical of Ichiro for bunting singles when there are runners in scoring position: Aren't you the same guys who told me, in the Jimmy Wynn discussion and many others, that the bottom line is not making an out? Well which is it? If Ichiro shouldn't have settled for those bunt singles and tried to drive in the runs, shouldn't Wynn have not settled for the walks and tried to drive in runs too?

I'll grant some legitimacy to your argument provided you apply it consistently.

As for Rickey, I love him, but I doubt I would rate him quite as high as you many here would- for one specific reason. I might get blasted for this but, the leadoff batter is a contrived distinction. Just like being the best DH is nothing more than being the best hitter who doesn't play the field. The best leadoff hitter is just the best hitter who hits first, seeing how most teams don't put their best hitter first, the distinction sounds more impressive than I believe it is. This should resonate especially well with the sabermetricians who wouold be more inclined to agree that the narrow mainstream defintion of a leadoff hitter is rather limiting. Now Rickey could do it all, and would still be the best "leadoff hitter" but what does that really mean. As opposed to defensive positions that correspond directly to specific skill sets, the offensive "positions" are more artificial in their distinction- not completely, but much more so. Rickey is the best leadoff hitter of all time, well Bonds would obliterate him, if he hit leadoff... I don't think offensive comparisons are particularly batting order sensitive at all, IMO you have to compare Rickey to all hitters. Of course he still fares rather well.

[leecemark]

--There is a distinction between taking a walk with RISP and bunting in the same situation. Ichiro made a deliberate choice not to attempt to drive in the run, leaving the job for someone else. A hitter who walks with runners in scoring position has generally not made a decision to pass the buck. He simply did not get a pitch he thought he could get the job done on. I suspect that his preference in that situation would be to get a pitch he can drive.

[Ubiquitous]

I think you are lumping a lot of unconnected people to make a case that has no merit. You have Mac and DL mentioning bunts here, and as far as I know neither were pushing for Wynn in that thread. Then again there were several spread out so I might not have seen it.

For me what I would say is what I have said and that is since Ichiro is a leadoff hitter and many of his PA's were as a leadoff and that some of his hits were infield singles those singles are no better then walks. A walk and a single with no one on have the same value. A walk and an infield single with a runner on first or third or second and doesn't move the runner over is the same as a walk. So basically a lot of Ichiro's hits get over-valued.

So if you want to talk about consistency then I think you should be looking towards those who think walks are over-valued. Becuase it is these people who should be re-thinking Ichiro's performance.

As for Rickey,
Well Rickey would probably be the best catcher of all time or best SS of all time or best 2B of all time if we just put him there too. We can say that Babe Ruth would have been the best lead-off hitter of all time if he just played there. But the point is he didn't. Rickey did play that position, and the lead-off isn't some artificial distinction. Batting first is very important, and getting the lead runner on base is extremely important. Rickey could do that.

[Ubiquitous]

--There is a distinction between taking a walk with RISP and bunting in the same situation. Ichiro made a deliberate choice not to attempt to drive in the run, leaving the job for someone else. A hitter who walks with runners in scoring position has generally not made a decision to pass the buck. He simply did not get a pitch he thought he could get the job done on. I suspect that his preference in that situation would be to get a pitch he can drive.


I wonder what the risk is for someone to go for the bunt instead of looking for a pitch to hit. If Ichiro makes a mistake he just wasted an at bat and in return he all could have gained was very little reward. Standing on first, either not moving the runner or not bringing the runner home (most of the time). While being patient, keeping yourself from swinging at bad pitches, risking a strikeout, has a high reward. Waiting on your pitch and getting a pitch you can drive. Now of course that doesn't mean you will get a hit even if you do get the pitch you want but I think in terms of risk/reward being patient, willing to take the walk if you don't get the pitch you want has a better pay off then laying down a bunt in these situations. Because again if the bunt works all you did was not make an out and get on base, where as if being patient works you have either driven the runner in (and possibly yourself), or as a fallback gotten a walk.