What about Ichiro???

[csh19792001]

More Ichiro records: Most base hits in how many years' span? 2, and 3, and 4, and 5, and 6? He's gotta have most of those, if not all.

ALL the hit records for a player's first several seasons in MLB?

[Edgartohof]

More Ichiro records: Most base hits in how many years' span? 2, and 3, and 4, and 5, and 6? He's gotta have most of those, if not all.

ALL the hit records for a player's first several seasons in MLB?

He has the record for 1 year, 3 years, 4 years.....(up to 7 - or at least soon)

but I believe someone like Hornsby has the record for 2 consecutive seasons - I'll try to confirm this.

[Ubiquitous]

Sisler has 719 hits in three consecutive years. Ichiro has 712 hits over 3 years. Am I missing a piece of data?


As far as two seasons Ichiro has 474 hits, Sisler has 473 hits. But Bill Terry has 480 hits and Hornsby has 485. I believe Cobb also has 474 hits.

Interestingly enough Hornsby, Terry, and Cobb all had their two best total season in terms of hits being their 7th and 8th season in the bigs.

Ichiro does not hold the record for three seasons.

It goes
Sisler-719
Hornsby-703
Terry-693
Ichiro-692
Terry-692

Ichiro does have the 4 best years with 924 hits with Terry second with 918.

Ichiro does have the 5 best years as well with 1130. I believe Chuck Klein comes the closest with 1118 hits.

Ichiro has 6 best years too with 1354 hits. Next closest is Sisler with 1317 hits, then 1315 hits, followed by Keeler with 1313.

[Ubiquitous]

As of right now the record for 7 best seasons is Burkett's 1526. As of right now Ichiro has 1483 hits. Ichiro needs to hit just 44 more hits this year to surpass Willie.

[Edgartohof]

Sisler has 719 hits in three consecutive years. Ichiro has 712 hits over 3 years. Am I missing a piece of data?

George also I believe has more hits then Ichiro over 5 seasons as well

As far as two seasons Ichiro has 474 hits, Sisler has 473 hits. But Bill Terry has 480 hits and Hornsby has 485. I believe Cobb also has 474 hits.

Okay, so maybe I spoke to hastily.

Ichiro has the most hits in a single season: 262 (2004)

Ichiro has the most hits in 4 years: 924 (2001-2004) - and depending on the outcome of this season, may better that number again.

Hornsby has 875 hits in 4 seasons, Cobb has 884 hits in 4 seasons, Sisler has 913 hits in 4 seasons, and Keeler has 881 hits in 4 seasons

Ichiro has the most hits in 6 years: 1354

Cobb: 1177; Hornsby: 1296: Keeler: 1313

Ichiro WILL have the most hits in 7 year - and very soon I might add (and considering we are only HALF way through this season...): 1483 (only 34 hits behind Keeler)

Keeler: 1517; Cobb: 1402; Sisler 1516; Hornsby 1463

And I believe Keeler has the record for most hits in 8 years with 1719 - Ichiro is only 236 hits behind him, and he has 1 1/2 seasons to do that!!! Meaning that Ichiro should be there by this time next season (if not sooner).



# of seasons Ichiro Hornsby Cobb Sisler Keeler
1 262 248 250 257 239
2 474 485 474 473 455
3 692 703 668 719 671
4 924 875 884 913 881
5 1130 1096 1072 1137 1094
6 1354 1296 1177 1317 1313
7 1483 1463 1402 1516 1517

[iPod]

yes, they are all contrived - in fact, I made them all up - you caught me!


Contrived, meaning "Obviously planned or calculated; not spontaneous or natural; labored." Most hits in a season is not contrived. 2 more six hit games than Wade Boggs is most definitely contrived. Only player to hit an inside-the-park in the All-Star Game is contrived.


Someone asked for a quick list, so I did a quick COPY/PASTE from another thread of some of Ichiro's more notable accomplishments (which I all made up of course).


That is except for:


most hits by a rookie - 242 (2001)
most hits in a single season - 262 (2004)
most hits in 6 consecutive seasons - 1354 (2001-2006)

Those are records aren't they?


They are. I wrote right at the beginning that "a lot" of them weren't records, not all of them.

I'm sorry if I decided to add a couple more points of interest - is EVERYTHING Ichiro does BAD or something? Just because he doesn't hit 30+ HR's a season, does that make him a bad player and a bad person?


Of course not. He's a good player. But that resume doesn't prove he has no weaknesses. Most of the bullet points on that list have to do with hits totals or batting average. All it does is prove over and over and over that he can get lots and of hits.


AL record for consecutive stolen bases in a single season- 39
AL record for consecutive stolen bases - 45

Sure sounds like a RECORD to me


Again, I wrote right in my post that "a lot" of them aren't records.


How pathetic - he's only been to what, 7 all-star games? Heck, Hank Aaron was in 21!!!

Again, pathetic - I know, barely worth mentioning

What WERE they thinking? He is just a pathetic player - who barely deserves to live, let alone play baseball...


You're proving STLCards2's point for him. I'm just saying that while Ichiro gets a lot of hits and is fast and throws well, he's got some weaknesses too, so let's keep that in mind. I'm not saying he's a bad player. I'm saying he's treated as if he is flawless and consequently is overrated.


Maybe not the most impressive feat, but another note of interest (which apparently doesn't interest you (what does - Home Runs? Steroids? Hmmm....?)


If it makes you feel better to believe I'm some illiterate ape man who just underrates Ichiro because I can't understand anything other than home runs, go ahead and believe that.

[digglahhh]

It is obviously common for fans from a particular region to support their favorite sons, even sometimes counterintuitively to what fact say. Frisco fans will come to Barry Bonds defense moreso than other fans no matter what happens. The same can be said for any star in any city. The anti-McGwire backlash here is nowhee near as bad as it is elsewhere. It is not suprising that those who saw Koufax pitch in L.A. are mostly the ones who put him in theri top 5-10's of all time. However, I have never seen a group of fans who are more defensive of any player than Mariner fans and Ichiro. If you say anything less-than-flattering towards him-even if there is some truth involved (like Ichiro's lack of Slugg. in comaprison to the Pujols and Ramirez' of the world can't be fully made up by Ichiro's defense and baserunning) it is treated like an attack against the entire cultural fabric of the Seattle community. If this is the kind of connection the town has with Ichiro, than his contract is a bargain!

Pleas don't take my comments the wrong way, I am just making an observation. I could be totaly wrong. I happen to like Ichiro, and feel he is a Hall of Famer - just not quite as good as his extraordinary loyal fans believe. I have a feeling most at BBF agree with my standpoint.

I agree with your take on Ichiro.

I also nominate Yankee fans and Jeter.

I love Ichiro, and Jeter for that matter. I don't see why it is an insult to say that neither of the two are among the very, very bast players in the game.

I mean how entitled and delusional do you have to be to perceive, "not as good as Vladimir Guerrero, Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez, and maybe a half dozen others" as an insult?...

[jalbright]

I agree with your take on Ichiro.

I also nominate Yankee fans and Jeter.

I love Ichiro, and Jeter for that matter. I don't see why it is an insult to say that neither of the two are among the very, very bast players in the game.

I mean how entitled and delusional do you have to be to perceive, "not as good as Vladimir Guerrero, Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez, and maybe a half dozen others" as an insult?...

Overall, I don't disagree with this, but Jeter and Ichiro wind up getting treated like issues in a political campaign, where they're either worthless or walk on water--and neither is true. If both sides could just admit that while there are better guys out there, these two men are legit HOF caliber players (once Ichiro gets 10 years' MLB service, anyway), there wouldn't be such overwrought discussion of these two. Unfortunately, that's not the way it plays out. One side says Ichiro's great, and the other says there's a number of better players, and it escalates into baseball bum versus baseball god type comparisons rather than trying to find the middle ground.

Jim Albright

[iPod]

I mean how entitled and delusional do you have to be to perceive, "not as good as Vladimir Guerrero, Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez, and maybe a half dozen others" as an insult?...

That's probably a little generous. Top 20 I'd say.

[Seattle1]

There are not many firsts left out there, and that was one of them....Just because you are pissed that someone from your own team wasn't able to do it, doesn't mean you have to get all pissy about it - and many of you are.


That's a good observation Edgartohof, a lot of the unfounded criticism of Ichiro can probably be chalked up to pure green jealousy. Now augmented by the fact that he just signed the 5-year extention with the Mariners so everyone's hopes are dashed that he'll come play for their team.

Well, in case anyone was wondering about Ichiro after being hit right in the knee with a 97-mph pitch from Verlander on Sunday, worry not. He got a break from playing CF last night but was in the lineup as the DH. He led the game off with a double, then stole third, then scored on a groundout! Right back to his old self, no lingering effects.

:clapping

[Brad Harris]

Well, in case anyone was wondering about Ichiro after being hit right in the knee with a 97-mph pitch from Verlander on Sunday, worry not. He got a break from playing CF last night but was in the lineup as the DH. He led the game off with a double, then stole third, then scored on a groundout! Right back to his old self, no lingering effects.

Huzzah! I'm happy to see that. I'm rooting for him to keep this up through ten years of MLB service time.

[J W]

The guy reminds me of Rickey Henderson in that he can change the course of any particular ball game without getting a single extra base hit. He is the single best OF in the game today with low power numbers (and he chooses to do that as a leadoff hitter). Therefore, he is the best leadoff hitter since perhaps Craig Biggio 10 years ago.

If he gets 2000 hits in 10 years I say he's a lock. "Only" 514 more to go.

[dl4060]

That's a good observation Edgartohof, a lot of the unfounded criticism of Ichiro can probably be chalked up to pure green jealousy. Now augmented by the fact that he just signed the 5-year extention with the Mariners so everyone's hopes are dashed that he'll come play for their team.



:clapping

What Digglahh and Jalbright said above is very relevant. Both Jeter and Ichiro have followings to the point where to suggest they are overrated is looked at as blasphemy. Both are wonderful players, but neither are on the level of an Arod. The idea of jealousy was brought up in the Soriano case as well, and it was just as aggravating then. Most of the people who criticize Ichiro do so for very good reasons. He is not one of the top few players in baseball, most of his detractors on this board use well thought out analytical measures to point out his flaws. The idea that these are motivated by jealousy is absurd. It reminds me of when the cubs got Soriano, someone started a thread about it, and whenever anyone would criticize Soriano he would come back with a "you're just jealous response," even when the criticism was supported by numbers. If it were jealousy, why are there not more detractors on this board when it comes to Arod or Pujols? Both of these men are FAR better than Ichiro, it is really not even close.

When I heard whispers that Ichiro might be available my first thought was that I really hoped we would not get him, because I was sure we would overpay. I would like to have Ichiro, but there are at least 10, probably more like 20 players I would rather have. Ichiro may have more value to a team, much the way David Beckham does, but what he does on the field is not on the level of the top few players in the game When someone points out that Ichiro's OPS+ is more on the level with that of a very good player, or an excellent player, please do not drone on illogically about how that is jealousy speaking. If it were jealousy I would be bashing Pujols and Arod and Vlad, not Jeter and Ichiro.

Now Edgar Martinez in his prime, that's a guy I would love to have.

[Seattle1]

What Digglahh and Jalbright said above is very relevant. Both Jeter and Ichiro have followings to the point where to suggest they are overrated is looked at as blasphemy. Both are wonderful players, but neither are on the level of an Arod. The idea of jealousy was brought up in the Soriano case as well, and it was just as aggravating then. Most of the people who criticize Ichiro do so for very good reasons. He is not one of the top few players in baseball, most of his detractors on this board use well thought out analytical measures to point out his flaws. The idea that these are motivated by jealousy is absurd. It reminds me of when the cubs got Soriano, someone started a thread about it, and whenever anyone would criticize Soriano he would come back with a "you're just jealous response," even when the criticism was supported by numbers. If it were jealousy, why are there not more detractors on this board when it comes to Arod or Pujols? Both of these men are FAR better than Ichiro, it is really not even close.

When I heard whispers that Ichiro might be available my first thought was that I really hoped we would not get him, because I was sure we would overpay. I would like to have Ichiro, but there are at least 10, probably more like 20 players I would rather have. Ichiro may have more value to a team, much the way David Beckham does, but what he does on the field is not on the level of the top few players in the game When someone points out that Ichiro's OPS+ is more on the level with that of a very good player, or an excellent player, please do not drone on illogically about how that is jealousy speaking. If it were jealousy I would be bashing Pujols and Arod and Vlad, not Jeter and Ichiro.



Methinks he doth protest too much! ;)

[Rennie Stennett]

I'd sure like to hear your list of the ten or twenty ballplayers you'd rather have than Ichiro.

Ichiro has a low OPS+ ... Ichiro chooses to swing the bat. He believes that people pay good money to see him hit, not walk. It used to bug me that he would not take pitches and walk a little more. Ichiro and Soriano are cleanup hitters batting lead off. I've heard that Ichiro batted third in the order during his days playing for Orix in the pacific league. He hit third for the Japanese Team in the World Baseball Classic (WBC). How many RBI's would Ichiro pick up if he hit third in the order ? Hitting lead off means that at least 20% of the time no one is on base when Ichiro steps in. His average with runners on base is over (.400). With guys on base Ichiro's eyes light up. The wheels start turning right away. Where can I hit it ? Where are they going to pitch me ? Look out.

In reality, no one except the people out in Seattle get to see Ichiro play everyday, unless you have the baseball package. Most people, even analysts don'[t really know about the Mariners. When asked on one of those radio or tv shows, they all say the same thing. Well, um, the Angels will win the West and the Mariners have a chance if Felix steps up and be's that number one starter and the bull pen is pretty good....blah....blah....blah....how can tell what kind of ballplayer he is from his OPS+ ???? really ? Ichiro just keeps getting hits. When he doesn't get a hit, he is usually moving a runner over or he's forcing the defense to make a play. Who was the person that voted no way ? anyway ?

[Padday]

That's a good point there about not being able to see him actually play everyday. Over this side of the pond we don't believe in statistics. In fact when a newspaper revealed a list of the best players in the FA Premiership last season based on statistics it was unheard of and people said it was stupid. In the case of Ichiro I think it's a good idea to take this stance.

What some people forget is that it's called the hall of fame not the hall of statistically superior players. When you see him play everyday (as I am lucky enough to through the power of the interweb) you realise that it's much more than the hits and stolen bases, it's because he's such a unique player. Everything from his quirky batting routine to his overall approach to the game of baseball that make him a household name and a fan favourite.

Although statistics serve a useful purpose they can't give the the full story, especially in a case like Ichiro.

[jalbright]

Ichiro has a low OPS+ ...

I know I'm taking this quote from a supporter of Ichiro, but it's not accurate. Ichiro's OBP is .379 for his career. Yes, maybe he could walk more, and his OBP is low for the average he hits for, but it's a pretty fair OBP because he hits for such a high average.

Jim Albright

[Erik Bedard]

Here are some players I'd rather have playing for me than Ichiro:

Albert Pujols
Alex Rodriguez
Miguel Cabrera
Barry Bonds
Vlad Guerrero
Magglio Ordonez
Grady Sizemore
David Ortiz
Manny Ramirez
Prince Fielder
Joe Mauer
Justin Morneau
Chase Utley
David Wright
Carlos Beltran
Ryan Howard
Carl Crawford
Jose Reyes
Lance Berkman
Carlos Lee

.... and there are more, just don't feel like listing them all right now.

In the Current Player Fantasy Draft, Ichiro was picked in Round 6, 70th overall (including pitchers). The idea of this draft was to pick a team for 2007 (it was run in late 2006). The fact that nine people passed up Ichiro five times and four six times, to me at least, shows that he isn't one of the top twenty players in baseball.

[Rennie Stennett]

In the Current Player Fantasy Draft, Ichiro was picked in Round 6, 70th overall (including pitchers). The idea of this draft was to pick a team for 2007 (it was run in late 2006). The fact that nine people passed up Ichiro five times and four six times, to me at least, shows that he isn't one of the top twenty players in baseball.

Fantasy League eh ? Fantasy players are annoying little flies. They run up to you at a bar, while your watching the game and they ask, "who got the rbi's for the giants ? or who hit the home run ?" Then they leave.

~ de plane boss, de plane ~

[iPod]

Methinks he doth protest too much! ;)

No specific thoughts on the matter? What exactly are you saying? Ichiro does hit for a lot of power?

At least you've stopped making the ridiculous moon landing analogy.

[Rennie Stennett]

They always say, Ichiro could hit more home runs, if he wanted to. That inside the parker in the mid-summer classic was a power up, for sure, but come on ? Could Ichiro power up if he wanted ? For real ? Oh yea, in batting practice, he puts on a power show. I know Ichiro hit more home runs in Japan. I'm sure the fences are closer and they play in about 30 less games over there per year. Did Ichiro power up more because he hit third all the time in Japan ? Is it because he is a lead off guy here, that he doesn't hit more home runs ?

It reminds me of the story Tony Gwynn told when he had a conversation with Ted Williams during his (Tony's) playing days. Ted asked him, "would you like to hit more home runs ?" Tony said,''A yea, I would (laughs)"

The other Ichiro Thread: http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=19524

[Seattle1]

No specific thoughts on the matter? What exactly are you saying? Ichiro does hit for a lot of power?

At least you've stopped making the ridiculous moon landing analogy.

Hey hey simmer down!

[J W]

Wow... you know what, Ichiro's high average, terrific defense, stealing ability and an OPS+ around 120 reminds me a lot of this hotly debated man:

http://i3.ebayimg.com/01/i/04/4f/a4/25_1_b.JPGhttp://i23.ebayimg.com/04/i/05/ba/d6/5b_1.JPG

Sisler's OBP above adjusted average is lower than Ichiro's, but his SLG is higher. Interesting.

[digglahhh]

Alright, I don't know if these lists are exhaustive, but here a some players I'd rather have over Ichiro, assuming all MLB players were put into a pool to be drafted. Age plays a factor in some of the decisions.

I'd take the following players over Ichiro

Pujols
A-Rod
Utley
Vlad
Miguel Cabrera
Reyes
Wright
R. Howard
Berkman
M. Holliday
Sizemore
H. Ramirez
Beltran
Morneau

I might take these players over Ichiro

D. Lee
Ortiz
Hafner
Tejeda
Crawford
C. Guillen
Hafner
V. Martinez
Mauer
Bay
Jeter

I would not take these players over Ichiro, but are active and have been better at their best than we expect Ichiro to be.

Thome
C. Jones
Bonds
M. Ramirez
Sheff
Griffey
Thomas
Piazza
Sosa

[538280]

Overall, I don't disagree with this, but Jeter and Ichiro wind up getting treated like issues in a political campaign, where they're either worthless or walk on water--and neither is true. If both sides could just admit that while there are better guys out there, these two men are legit HOF caliber players (once Ichiro gets 10 years' MLB service, anyway), there wouldn't be such overwrought discussion of these two. Unfortunately, that's not the way it plays out. One side says Ichiro's great, and the other says there's a number of better players, and it escalates into baseball bum versus baseball god type comparisons rather than trying to find the middle ground.

Jim Albright

I agree with you point. I would like to say that the "middle ground" for Jeter is much higher than for Ichiro though. I think Jeter is a player who is deserving of a rep as one of the best in the game. He's legit in that regard. If he was legitimately a gold glove caliber shortstop he may be a top 25 player of all time candidate by the time he's done. With his actual fielding I think he could still be top 50, and maybe even higher. He's a subperb offensive player from shorstop (123 OPS+ and an excellent 78% basestealer, he could very well be the 3rd best offensive SS, behind Wagner and A-Rod, at the end of his career). He's arguably deserved two MVPs (1999 and 2006). His glove isBut weak from SS, but he's still definitely at least able to hande the position, and his offense is great from there. He's a legitimately great player IMO, and if I had to name the top 5 players in the AL right now he'd be one of them.

Ichiro just isn't there for me at all, and I would call him much more overrated than Jeter. I'm willing to recognize Jeter as one of the best of the game, legitimately, even if he's not the Superman Face of Baseball he's made out to be on ESPN. Ichiro just isn't on the level of Jeter, IMO. He's almost the same in terms of offensive value, but even as a very good OFer, mostly RF in his career at this point but CF this year, he can't be of the same defensive responsibility as a shortstop. Ichiro's offense, from an outfielder, just isn't all that special. Players who can handle the shorstop position defensively usually are below average offensively, the average OPS+ at SS is usually 85-90. But it's a lot easier to find a hitter in the OF, even at CF. Ichiro's offense just isn't up to the par of an elite outfielder.

[Rennie Stennett]

It seems that Jeter is always in the right place at the right time. This is what makes him a HOF'er. That little flip to the catcher against the A's, as he came running through on a throw from the outfield, is at a glance what Jeter is all about in a nutshell. Who else would know to go there ? When he dove into the stands for that famous foul pop, A-Rod couldn't believe he went for it. Last year, when most of the Yankees were banged up, Jeter carried the ball club offensively. No protection in the batting order for Jeter most of the season. This is like Ichiro. Ichiro has no protection in the order. He's on his own out there. Mags has Shef. Big Papi has Manny. Since Edgar retired, there really has not been a big stick in the lineup to protect Ichiro. Even Edgar hit third or fifth, so really no protection. During the Ichiro era, the Mariners have not had a decent two hole hitter, up until last year, when Jose Lopez hit there often. This year the Mariners have Jose Vidro who played some at the two hole and in the three. You don't know how many times Ichiro was stranded down there at first base the first five years of his career in Seattle. Very frustrating.

Would you say that Ichiro is the same type of player as Gwynn & Boggs & Carew ? Basically a single's hitter ? Ichiro, like Gwynn and Boggs and Carew, should compete for the batting title every year. Don't you agree ?

[tearforamariner]

Would you say that Ichiro is the same type of player as Gwynn & Boggs & Carew ? Basically a single's hitter ? Ichiro, like Gwynn and Boggs and Carew, should compete for the batting title every year. Don't you agree ?

As much as I love Ichiro, he isn't that type of hitter. 81% of Ichiro's hits are singles. 18% of his hits are infield singles.

[Brooklyn]

One interesting thing about Ichiro is that he has the best hits / game played ratio of all time, getting 1.4148 hits per game played, edgin out Delahanty at 1.4147. Excluding 1800's guys, Cobb is second at 1.3802.

I'd be surprised if Ichiro is on top of this list when he retires as his hit totals will decline as he loses speed.

[dl4060]

That's a good point there about not being able to see him actually play everyday. Over this side of the pond we don't believe in statistics. In fact when a newspaper revealed a list of the best players in the FA Premiership last season based on statistics it was unheard of and people said it was stupid. In the case of Ichiro I think it's a good idea to take this stance.

.


Soccer and baseball are very different in this regard. One absolutely cannot compare the two.

"Methinks he doth protest too much!"

Walked right into that one:rofl:

I'm not going to list the ten to twenty players I would rather have than Ichiro. The lists others have provided in this thread are sufficient. I don't agree with all of the selections, just most of them. In terms of offensive value I don't think he belongs in the same area code with guys like Manny and Arod. Ichiro has never had an OBP above .414 and he has no power. That limits his value in my book. He is very valuable when he does reach base, but I would prefer Wade Boggs any day of the week. As to his defense, certainly spectacular to watch, but until this season he has been a right fielder, far from a key defensive position. I would take Manny 2001-2007 over Ichiro in a heartbeat, and it is not even remotely close.

[538280]

Would you say that Ichiro is the same type of player as Gwynn & Boggs & Carew ? Basically a single's hitter ? Ichiro, like Gwynn and Boggs and Carew, should compete for the batting title every year. Don't you agree ?

Similar in type, but not in quality. All those guys at least brought some power and walks to the table, while Ichiro brings almost none of each. Taking their OBP and SLG together they were all better hitters than Ichiro, and most of them played a full career with a decline while Ichiro is still in the middle of his.

OPS+
Ichiro-120
Gwynn-132
Carew-131
Boggs-130

[Padday]

Soccer and baseball are very different in this regard. One absolutely cannot compare the two.

I was not comparing the two but rather sugesting we take a page from this philosophy of judging a player based on what we physically see him doing rather than what the numbers tell us.

Ichiro's impact on the game is not just limited to what the numbers tell. The very fact that Ichiro has so many followers is a testiment to this.

[Erik Bedard]

As much as I love Ichiro, he isn't that type of hitter. 81% of Ichiro's hits are singles. 18% of his hits are infield singles.

I think I posted something on that topic a while back.

EDIT: Here it is:

Anyway, here are his stats, counting an IFH as .723 of a hit.

.318 BA
.357 OBP
.425 SLG
.782 OPS
105 OPS+

Decent stats, and when combined with his speed and defense, you get a very good player. However, you don't get an all-time great. You get somebody slightly similar to Richie Ashburn with more power and less walks, playing mostly corner outfield (though I'll probably have to give him credit for playing CF if he sticks there for the rest of his career).

[Ubiquitous]

The next step you will have to do then is figure out the value of taking the extra base. Both when he is hitting and when he is the runner.

How many of his non-infield hits moved the runner over more then one base? How does that compare to the league? For instance lets say that on average a runner on second scores 90% of the time when a batter hits a double. We then look and see that when Ichiro hits a "double" the runner only scores 60% of the time. The reason being that Ichiro hit what was probably a single but stretched it to a double.

Then on the flipside we have to see how many extra bases Ichiro took when somebody else was batting and compare that to the league. How many times did he score from first on a ball hit to the right side compared to the league? So on and so on.

[Seattle1]

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/dayart/20070710/45075350552_10.jpg

Ichiro Suzuki follows through on a two-run, inside-the-park home run in the fifth inning that gave the American League a 2-1 lead. The AL would not trail again (July 10, 2007).

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/dayart/20070710/45075351801.jpg

Baseball commissioner Bud Selig, left, presents Ichiro Suzuki of the Seattle Mariners the MVP trophy after the All-Star Game as Fox TV's Jeannie Zelasko waits for the interview (July 10, 2007).

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/dayart/20070710/45075351829.jpg

Ichiro Suzuki celebrates with the MVP trophy (July 10, 2007).

[Rennie Stennett]

Dayn Perry FOXSports.com:

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/7036782

[Padday]

Dayn Perry FOXSports.com:

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/7036782

Thanks for posting that.

One part of the artical I liked was this:

"Ichiro's value extends far beyond the box scores. He's a tremendous performer, cultural phenomenon and marquee attraction all rolled into one diminutive package."

What I've been saying all along. He's a seat filler and its certainly no coincidence.

[digglahhh]

Thanks for posting that.

One part of the artical I liked was this:

"Ichiro's value extends far beyond the box scores. He's a tremendous performer, cultural phenomenon and marquee attraction all rolled into one diminutive package."

What I've been saying all along. He's a seat filler and its certainly no coincidence.

I don't think that has really been argued. From a revenue generating standpoint, he is certainly worth more than his stats indicate. I think he deserves his new contract, and that others who think they are on the same level as him as a ballplayer need to consider these other issues before deciding that they deserve "Ichiro money" too.

[538280]

That's a good article, but it doesn't have all that much context to the VORP numbers. I'm not familiar with VORP that much and I don't full agree with the concept of adjusting offensive performance for positional scarcity (anymore), but I doubt those numbers are that great.

Ichiro's also the type of player who tends to age well and retain his skills over time. He's fast, well conditioned, athletic, defensively accomplished and doesn't strike out much

I've heard just the opposite, not saying this is wrong but I've also read Ichiro is a player who may not age all that well. Most of his game is dependant on one skill: speed, and that's a skill that tends to deteriorate more than any other as a player ages. It doesn't look like Ichiro's lost much of his speed yet and he's already up there in age. Who knows anyway, maybe Perry's right, but I'm not so sure he is.

[dl4060]

I've heard just the opposite, not saying this is wrong but I've also read Ichiro is a player who may not age all that well. Most of his game is dependant on one skill: speed, and that's a skill that tends to deteriorate more than any other as a player ages. It doesn't look like Ichiro's lost much of his speed yet and he's already up there in age. Who knows anyway, maybe Perry's right, but I'm not so sure he is.

Players with speed tend to age well in part because they are able to stay in a key defensive position for longer. However, if speed is their central skill, that is more of a risk. A player with excellent speed who drives the ball to the outfield could be expected to age well, but one with speed who relies on infield hits may not be expected to do quite as well.

Wade Boggs and Tony Gwynn relied less on infield hits, so I would think they would age a bit better. Boggs declined at age 31 and was never the same player. After his initial decline he leveled off, and posted similar BA(and relative BA) numbers at 35-37 as he had at age 31-33. His overall offense declined relative to the league because slugging percentages went up by about 30-35 points due to the power surge of the mid-90's. Overall, I would say Boggs maintained his ability to hit for average into his mid-30's. He was as good a hitter(for average at least) at age 36 as he was at 31. I would have expected to see more of a decline.

Gwynn, remarkably, hit better in his thirties. He was certainly not beating out infield hits at that point. Ichiro will be interesting. He has incredible bat control, so he may be able to adjust his approach as infield hits become few and far between. One would think that players who rely on hitting line drives, as Boggs and Gwynn did, would age better than those who rely more on speed.

Does anyone know what the normal percentage of infield hits is for a player?

[Seattle1]

Commissioner Bud Selig presented Ichiro Suzuki with the Historic Achievement Award on April 22, 2005 for his record-setting 2004 season. "Breaking the hits record here at Safeco Field in front of the Seattle fans is the greatest moment of my baseball career," said Ichiro. (mms://a1503.v108692.c10869.g.vm.akamaistream.net/7/1503/10869/v0001/mlb.download.akamai.com/10869/2005/open/teams05/sea/video/042205_clesea_ichiro_ceremony_350.wmv?ct3=-1&ct4=mlb&ct5=19-Jul-07)

:clapping

:nod:

:dance

:baseball:

[Seattle1]

Ichiro collects 1,500th big league hit (http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20070729&content_id=2117275&vkey=news_sea&fext=.jsp&c_id=sea)
Outfielder reaches milestone with single in second inning
By Patrick Brown / MLB.com

SEATTLE -- Add another milestone on to Ichiro Suzuki's already packed resume.

Ichiro reached 1,500 Major League hits in the third-fastest amount of time, hitting a single to center in the second inning of Sunday's game against the A's. Ichiro recorded the feat in his 1,060th game with the Mariners.

Ichiro tipped his cap at first base after receiving a standing ovation from the near-capacity crowd at Safeco Field.

Only Al Simmons (1,040 games) and George Sisler (1,048) reached the benchmark faster than Ichiro, whose accomplishment surpassed Ty Cobb's mark of 1,070 games.

[More...] (http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20070729&content_id=2117275&vkey=news_sea&fext=.jsp&c_id=sea)

[G.Costanza]

Commissioner Bud Selig presented Ichiro Suzuki with the Historic Achievement Award on April 22, 2005 for his record-setting 2004 season. "Breaking the hits record here at Safeco Field in front of the Seattle fans is the greatest moment of my baseball career," said Ichiro. (mms://a1503.v108692.c10869.g.vm.akamaistream.net/7/1503/10869/v0001/mlb.download.akamai.com/10869/2005/open/teams05/sea/video/042205_clesea_ichiro_ceremony_350.wmv?ct3=-1&ct4=mlb&ct5=19-Jul-07)


Ichiro has since then changed that feeling, he said after Japan won the WBC that that was the greatest moment in his baseball career. Tells you a lot, for a guy who has soooooooo many major league records as well as awards and was on a team that tied the Cubs with 116 wins, that he puts a team accomplishment ahead of all of his own personal achievments. The guys the hardest working player in the game, hands down and you never hear about it.

[TJR]

Through 8/3/07 (http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/index.php?view=winshares&linesToDisplay=50&orderBy=total&direction=DESC&season_filter%5B%5D=2007&league_filter%5B%5D=All&pos_filter%5B%5D=All&Submit=Submit)

Ichiro - 25
Guerrero - 24
Rodriquez - 23
Byrnes - 23
Ordonez - 23
Pujols - 22
Wright - 22
Sizemore - 22
Cabrera - 22

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Would it be shocking if Ichiro led the majors in Win Shares? Wow.

[AstrosFan]

Ichiro is an infrequent walker, and a singles hitter, which makes his OPS+ an unimpressive 120. This is not Hall of Fame level for a player who has primarily played right field. However, there are some elements we are missing.

While Ichiro's rate stats aren't great, he is an excellent producer of runs. This is because he A) has never missed more than five games in a season, giving him 725+ PA every year, B) is an excellent basestealer, and has been particularly great this year and last, and C) hardly ever grounds into a double play. Complex versions of runs created have him as one of the top run producers in baseball. He is a superb defender, and has made a seamless transition from right to center, making him even more valuable in that area now. OPS+ doesn't tell the whole story.

[538280]

Ichiro is an infrequent walker, and a singles hitter, which makes his OPS+ an unimpressive 120. This is not Hall of Fame level for a player who has primarily played right field. However, there are some elements we are missing.

While Ichiro's rate stats aren't great, he is an excellent producer of runs. This is because he A) has never missed more than five games in a season, giving him 725+ PA every year, B) is an excellent basestealer, and has been particularly great this year and last, and C) hardly ever grounds into a double play. Complex versions of runs created have him as one of the top run producers in baseball. He is a superb defender, and has made a seamless transition from right to center, making him even more valuable in that area now. OPS+ doesn't tell the whole story.

I agree completely. Ichiro is a much more valuable player than his OPS+ would indicate, for those three reasons. Even on a rate basis his relative offensive value is far higher than OPS+ because of his basestealing. He's probably more like 30% above average taking into account his basestealing. He also has excellent durability, but this still doesn't quite make him one of the best in the game, or a player you can build your team around, though I agree he is far better than his OPS+. fo

As for WS, Ichiro is #1 in WS because of what I think is a flaw in the system. It is the same reason why Eric Byrnes is #1 in the NL. A team's total WS, of course, equals the team's wins times three. To allocate who is responsible for these wins WS uses runs created. But, in some cases, a team's success (often because they are lucky), isn't explained by their runs scored and allowed, they have done much better than those would indicate. The Mariners' RS and RA this year would suggest they are around a .500 team, but they are actually above that by quite a bit. Thus, WS makes all the Mariners players better than their run value would indicate, to make up for the fact that it is based on actual wins. Many of the "funky" results of the WS system are because of this. The Diamondbacks have allowed more runs than they have scored yet are 65-51. Eric Byrnes benefits in the same way that Ichiro does.
o

[Seattle1]

Ichiro just got his 200th hit of the season, a homerun off Roger Clemens at Yankee Stadium. He now has extended his own record of most consecutive 200-hit seasons to begin an MLB career to 7 seasons in a row! Also, only two other players have accomplished this feat at any point in their career: Wade Boggs also did it 7 times in a row, and Willie Keeler did it 8 times. Next year around this time, we'll be talking about Ichiro tying Keeler. In 2009 about this time, Ichiro will have the record all to himself at 9 seasons in a row! WOW!


:clapping

"Cooperstown here he comes!" [Sung to the tune of "California here I come!"]

[DoubleX]

Ichiro just got his 200th hit of the season, a homerun off Roger Clemens at Yankee Stadium. He now has extended his own record of most consecutive 200-hit seasons to begin an MLB career to 7 seasons in a row! Also, only two other players have accomplished this feat at any point in their career: Wade Boggs also did it 7 times in a row, and Willie Keeler did it 8 times. Next year around this time, we'll be talking about Ichiro tying Keeler. In 2009 about this time, Ichiro will have the record all to himself at 9 seasons in a row! WOW!


Wow, didn't realize that Ichiro was injury proof, much less decline proof as well.

What Ichiro done is certainly notable, but what happens over the course of the next two seasons is far from likely as a wide variety of things can happen between now and then.

[Seattle1]

Wow, didn't realize that Ichiro was injury proof, much less decline proof as well.

What Ichiro done is certainly notable, but what happens over the course of the next two seasons is far from likely as a wide variety of things can happen between now and then.

Yes a freak injury is always possible. But Ichiro is the epitome of consistency, so in my mind it's a pretty safe bet that he'll get there (9 straight 200-hit seasons).

[Seattle1]

Ichiro joins exclusive club with 200th hit (http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20070903&content_id=2186726&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb)
By Jim Street / MLB.com

NEW YORK -- Ichiro Suzuki joined an exclusive hitter's club on Monday afternoon, reaching the 200-hit plateau for the seventh consecutive season.
The Mariners center fielder belted a leadoff home run off Roger Clemens in the third inning, his second hit of the game. Ichiro singled in the first inning.

Ichiro joins Hall of Famers Wee Willie Keeler (1894-1901) and Wade Boggs (1983-89) as the only players in Major League history to string together seven straight 200-hit seasons. Ichiro is the only one to accomplish the feat in his first seven Major League seasons.

Going into Monday's game, Ichiro was 2-for-20 in his career against Clemens.

The home run was his sixth of the season and first in 342 at-bats.

Ichiro's yearly hit totals since joining the Mariners prior to the 2001 season are as follows: 242 (2001); 208 ('02); 212 ('03); 262 ('04); 206 ('05) and 224 ('06).

Ichiro's 200th hit (mms://a1503.v108692.c10869.g.vm.akamaistream.net/7/1503/10869/v0001/mlb.download.akamai.com/10869/2007/open/tp/archive09/090307_seanya_suzuki_200h_tp_350.wmv?ct3=15162800&ct4=mlb&ct5=03-Sep-07)

[Walt Zink]

without a doubt, ichiro is a HOFer. he'll finish his career (barring injury) with possibly the most seasons of 200+ hits (he has 7 now, pete rose had 10), and his arm scares people to death.

people always toss up the argument about "well, he doesn't walk enough" or "he doesn't look at enough pitches". well, why don't the mariners do what the red sox do? have a guy like a kevin youkilis batting second. he leads the majors in pitches per at-bat, and is an excellent contact hitter. or, if they're that worried about it, have ichiro 2nd in the order and have a true leadoff hitter ahead of him.

the point is, he gets on base. he bothers pitchers enough that if there's a good set of hitters behind him, the pitcher will make mistakes. you take ichiro away from the mariners and there's no WAY they are a game back of the wild-card this year. he is immensely important to that team.

not to mention, he is THE best contact hitter i've ever seen in the 25 years i've been watching baseball. pete rose barely batted .300 for his career, and ichiro's OBP is actually HIGHER than rose's, despite how little he walks. his SLG % is .105 over his BA, while rose's was .106. comparable in respect to the relation of XBH to BA.

the thing is, if he WANTS to hit for power, he can. but considering how selfish we think guys are for simply swinging for the fences, isn't ichiro a refreshing change by just trying to get on base through his natural ability?

[lovethegame]

I hope so.
he needs what 3 more years to qualify?
200 plus every year ,best arm since Colavito, cmon in

[Brad Harris]

The guy's done enough to merit election. If he qualifies (i.e. 10 seasons) then he's a shoo-in in my book, even without credit for his pre-MLB play. If he doesn't qualify, the Hall is gonna have to seriously reconsider its rules.

[Gregory Pratt]

Ichiro could hit forty homeruns if he wanted to. Possibly more. He has a lot of power. A lot of power, and if you ever read about his workout regimen or watch him take BP you'd understand.

If he'd been playing in the majors at a young age, he'd wind up the all-time hit leader. This is the best player in the Major Leagues, defense and offense factored in. He has nothing left to prove. He proved that a little Japanese guy like him can remain healthy, contrary to the racist belief perpetuated that the "smaller Japs" can't make it. He's done more than enough with his bat and his defense. He's a class act and fans everywhere love him. Ichiro is, more than Albert Pujols, more than Ken Griffey Jr., more than Andruw Jones, more than Prince Fielder, a once in a lifetime player.

[Gregory Pratt]

The guy's done enough to merit election. If he qualifies (i.e. 10 seasons) then he's a shoo-in in my book, even without credit for his pre-MLB play. If he doesn't qualify, the Hall is gonna have to seriously reconsider its rules.

I'll quit following baseball if he doesn't make it in on the first ballot. I've already got significant issues with the HOF, MLB and MLBPA. If Ichiro doesn't make it in on the first ballot (unless of course something like a steroid test failure sunk him) I bolt.

[Yankees2k6]

200 hits in his first 7 seasons. YES! He should be in.

[Gregory Pratt]

200 hits in his first 7 seasons. YES! He should be in.

That doesn't sound so impressive...

Two hundred hits...in seven seasons?! Jeeeeeeez. Guess some people really have a low HOF criteria!

[Padday]

That doesn't sound so impressive...

Two hundred hits...in seven seasons?! Jeeeeeeez. Guess some people really have a low HOF criteria!

Har dee har har.:rolleyes:

[Gregory Pratt]

Oh loosen up.

[jalbright]

Let's everybody take a deep breath here. If you want to post a joke here, please don't get huffy if someone doesn't get it/takes it the wrong way/dislikes it and makes a post communicating same. By the same token, if someone posts something tongue in cheek, please try to take it in the spirit intended, even if you want to groan instead of laugh. Thanks.

Jim Albright

[Padday]

I was just joking. Sorry if I wasn't clear.

[538280]

people always toss up the argument about "well, he doesn't walk enough" or "he doesn't look at enough pitches". well, why don't the mariners do what the red sox do? have a guy like a kevin youkilis batting second. he leads the majors in pitches per at-bat, and is an excellent contact hitter. or, if they're that worried about it, have ichiro 2nd in the order and have a true leadoff hitter ahead of him.

I don't understand the thought that the team that a player plays for has a big effect on how much value a player's events contributed have. It can, but only in a situational way, which is dependant on what situation a player comes up with. I don't agree with the concept of looking at a player's value that way because what he comes up to has nothing to do with the player's own ability. Players who bat in the middle of the order will come up with more runners on base, and that may add to their events, situationally, in general, having more value than basic Linear Weights would suggest. But that doesn't have to do with their ability as a player, it just has to do with the circumstances in which they play.

But even if you were to rate a player based on what is best in what situation, I don't see how Ichiro is better suited for a team like the Mariners than he would for a team like Red Sox. The Mariners so far this year have a .338 OBP. That's exactly league average. On a team without a great OBP, so not a ton of runners on base, the importance of power is maximized. If you're not getting many runners on, you had better make the most of it when you do, by moving them along, and a big part of that is slugging, power. OTOH, the Mariners also have just about a league average SLG-.425 (league average .423). On a team that is only so-so in slugging, the value of getting on base also isn't as high, because getting on isn't going to result in a run unless you're driven in.

Now let's look at the Red Sox. The Red Sox have a .362 OBP right now. The value of power isn't as high there, because there are a lot more runners on. A player without a ton of power is more well suited for a team like the Red Sox than a team like the Mariners. So Ichiro's weakness isn't as key. And the Red Sox have a .441 SLG, so it's above league average. With that the value of getting on is a little higher, because there'smore of chance of getting driven in.

I don't think that should be factored into the evaluation of a player, as I said, but realistically the value of a high OBP, not so high SLG player is higher on a good hitting team, less on an average or below average hitting team. OTOH, a high SLG player without as high an OBP would be more valuable on a low run scoring team.

the point is, he gets on base. he bothers pitchers enough that if there's a good set of hitters behind him, the pitcher will make mistakes. you take ichiro away from the mariners and there's no WAY they are a game back of the wild-card this year. he is immensely important to that team.

He gets on base at a good rate, but not at a tremendous rate. His relative OBP is 115, which is very good, but for supposedly an elite player of which that's supposed to be his forte, it's not that great, and it's mid career, so it's probably not going up all that much before the end of the career. He's never led the leauge in OBP, he's finished top 5 once (2nd in 2004), he's finished top 10 3 times. So he hasn't even been top 10 in the AL in OBP for half his seasons. That's supposed to be a guy who is tremendous at getting on base? Seems more just like solid/good at getting on to me. And he doesn't offer much more as a hitter-his SLG over his career is barely above league average.

not to mention, he is THE best contact hitter i've ever seen in the 25 years i've been watching baseball. pete rose barely batted .300 for his career, and ichiro's OBP is actually HIGHER than rose's, despite how little he walks. his SLG % is .105 over his BA, while rose's was .106. comparable in respect to the relation of XBH to BA.

Rose played in much less of a power era than Ichiro has so his power is actually quite a bit better (67 relative ISO for Ichiro, 85 for Rose, relative ISO is SLG minus BA compared to the league average of the same). But that's not an essential point. That he is the best contact hitter you've seen is notable, and good, but that doesn't mean that by itself it makes him one of the best hitters in game in terms of what they do with the bat to help their teams win. A .330 hitter with the same OBP and SLG as a .260 hitter is not any more valuable than that player with the lower BA. The .330 hitter has more hits-but the .260 hitter's hits are worth more hit for hit-he has more extra base hits, a higher ISO. The value of his hits still isn't quite as high, because the .330 hitter has more hits, but the .260 hitter also has more walks, which (according to Linear Weights) evens out the advantage of the other players hits still being worth a little more. Overall, they get on base the same, and while the .330 hitter has more hits, because the .260 hitters hits do more damage on average they're just about the same at advancing runners as well-again according to Linear Weights.

the thing is, if he WANTS to hit for power, he can. but considering how selfish we think guys are for simply swinging for the fences, isn't ichiro a refreshing change by just trying to get on base through his natural ability?

I agree it can be refreshing. Ichiro is an extremely exciting player, and there's no denying that. That doesn't mean that I can't realize his value is not as high as everyone says he is, in large part because people just like the change and almost WANT him to be that good, IMO. If Ichiro really can hit for 40 HR power, and still keep his BA above .280 at least (he'd walk more with that much power, his OBP then would be at least .370 which isn't that much lower than it is now), he could be far more valuable than he is now as a hitter. He'd be getting on at almost the same rate, just a little lower, and with the power, his SLG would probably be around .550, and that would do a lot more to advance runners than his hitting now of mostly singles. It would result in far more runs for the team-and runs are how teams win games. . And winning games is the goal of the game. If Ichiro really could hit for that kind of power, and he isn't, it's him who is being a very selfish player. If that's the case, he's intentionally taking an approach that results in less contribution on his part to winning games.

As one of the best baserunners and fielding OFers in the game as well, I think if Ichiro had that line, .280/.370/.550 (probably around 140-150 OPS+), he'd be the best player in the AL outside of A-Rod if he has years like 2005 or 2007, though ahead for sure if he has years like 2004 or 2006.

Also, for all my criticism of him, I think Ichiro should be a HOFer. Part of the HOF is celebrating the history of baseball, and sometimes that means the plaeyrs who are known as the best more than the actual best. It also means that there is a place for rewarding for excitement and important contributions to the game. As one of the first Japanese stars, Ichiro has that for sure, and there are very few as exciting.

I also think Ichiro is still an excellent player, just not quite as good as many think, because I don't think his hitting is as valuable as most. He still is one of the best fielders and baserunners in the game-and I don't doubt that at all. Ichiro has stolen 37 bases this year at 92%. That has great value to the team, in terms of scoring runs. He has always been a tremedous basestealer, and that is a big boost to his offensive value. He is also one of the most agressive baserunners in the game and gets I'm sure quite a few bases on average there too, and that also should be taken into account. He is still an excellent offensive player, an asset to any team. Defensively he's tremendous too, with an awesome arm and range. I've always wondered why he wasn't in CF, it was probably because Mike Cameron was there when he first came, and Cameron is even better than Ichiro defensively, Cameron is one of the best I've ever seen.

Ichiro is, BTW, I believe leading the league in Win Shares this year. I know I've said this before, but that is a manifestation of a few flaws in the system that don't specifically value the individual's ability, but the team performance. The Mariners this year are 74-63, quite a bit over .500. But based on their runs scored and runs allowed (they've allowed more runs than they've scored), you'd think they'd be below .500. WS awards credit based on actual wins, so all the Mariners players are getting credit for more runs than their regular stats would make you think-because they're right now getting more wins out of those runs than you'd think. That is usually largely luck, as there is no correlation from year to year between who is above or below pythagorean record. It's not something IMO that is reflective of extra ability the Mariners have. If it is, it's reflective of JJ Putz, their closer. Relievers save runs at key times of the game, and thus those runs are worth more in terms of how many games the team wins than the one-for one estimates assume. So I think it's either luck or attributed to the bullpen-yet Ichiro, and all the other Mariners hitters as well, are getting credit for it.

Ichiro this year is having one of his best years and certainly deserves to rank among the best in the AL. I'd put him in the top 10 for sure and maybe even top 5. But I don't agree with #1 at all, and IMO it has to do with that flaw in the system. The system overrates many other seasons in much the same way, IMO. I don't care for WS much because of things like that. It's setup of individual evaluation is tied to the team in ways like that that just don't refect the individual's own ability.

[ElHalo]

Ichiro this year is having one of his best years and certainly deserves to rank among the best in the AL. I'd put him in the top 10 for sure and maybe even top 5.

I can't possibly imagine how Ichiro's top 5 in the AL. That's just silly. I mean... Ruth, Cobb, Gehrig, Speaker, Williams. That's five guys who are so far above Ichiro in rank as to make the argument silly.

That said, I think Ichiro's quickly honing in on a top ten all time slot in the right fielder rankings.

Actually, now that I think about it... if I ranked Ichiro as a CF'er, he might be pretty high. I go (MLB only):

1. Cobb
2. Mays
3. Speaker
4. Mantle
5. DiMaggio
6. Griffey, Jr.
7. Ashburn
8. Snider

I can see a legitimate argument for Ichiro going as high as sixth on this list.

[jalbright]

EH,

Though I don't want to put words in Chris' mouth, I'm rather certain he's saying top five in the AL this year.

[538280]

I can't possibly imagine how Ichiro's top 5 in the AL. That's just silly. I mean... Ruth, Cobb, Gehrig, Speaker, Williams. That's five guys who are so far above Ichiro in rank as to make the argument silly.


I was speaking about the 2007 AL, EH. He's not even close to the top 5 AL players of all time. He might not even be top 100 AL players of all time for me, though I'm really not sure about that at all. He wouldn't be top 50. He isn't top 25 RFers for me yet though he's probably top 40, based on only MLB performance (don't have a list, just thinking where he'd probably be). He'd by top 25 with Japanese play, and might end up top 15 for me among RFers for me by the time his career is done.

[ElHalo]

I was speaking about the 2007 AL, EH. He's not even close to the top 5 AL players of all time.

Obviously.

He might not even be top 100 AL players of all time for me, though I'm really not sure about that at all. He wouldn't be top 50. He isn't top 25 RFers for me yet though he's probably top 40, based on only MLB performance (don't have a list, just thinking where he'd probably be). He'd by top 25 with Japanese play, and might end up top 15 for me among RFers for me by the time his career is done.
Right now, I see him as being about equal with Sam Rice, who's in my top 65 or 70 players all time, and probably hovering just outside my top 10 RF's (RF is probably the single heaviest slot at the top of my rankings). He's basically Ty Cobb with less power and better defense.

[Walt Zink]

well, for a guy from an inferior league to dominate as much as he has as far as contact hitting and causing problems for the pitcher when on base, i say he'd be a lock in my mind. remember, sandy koufax, up through 1960 was a whopping 36-40 in his career before reeling off those last 6 seasons (1961 even being average, 18-13 and 3.52) at 129-47.

while hitting and pitching are different, HOF voters don't look at "win share" or these really vague statistics that the average baseball fan wouldn't know. he's fun to watch, helped keep seattle afloat after the departure of their three big players, and as far as a pure hitter, the best i think i've seen, with manny ramirez being a close second.

[digglahhh]

This is the best player in the Major Leagues, defense and offense factored in.

I know that somebody is going to remark about him leading the league in Win Shares, but...

I can't see this as the case. Is there any rational human being alive who would choose to have Ichiro on his team over Alex Rodriguez?

[Brad Harris]

He's basically Ty Cobb with less power and better defense.

And one-third the career length.

[538280]

I know that somebody is going to remark about him leading the league in Win Shares, but...

That's a fluke caused by a design flaw in the system anyway, IMO, see the bottom of my post. That's why I've largely given up on WS: I realize that there are little things in it such as that that effect the way every player is rated that really have nothing to do with the player's ability or value.

I can't see this as the case. Is there any rational human being alive who would choose to have Ichiro on his team over Alex Rodriguez?

No, not at all.

[538280]

well, for a guy from an inferior league to dominate as much as he has as far as contact hitting and causing problems for the pitcher when on base, i say he'd be a lock in my mind.

What makes you say he's playing in an inferior league? Even in terms of contact hitting, while the power numbers get a lot of attention, the league average BA right now in the AL is .270. The all time historical norm is .262.The league offensive levels don't indicate league quallity at all, but the level of hitting for average in the league right now is well above historic norms. You may not think most hitters today take that approach, but the result is still a relatively high BA in a historical sense. I agree Ichiro is a HOFer.

remember, sandy koufax, up through 1960 was a whopping 36-40 in his career before reeling off those last 6 seasons (1961 even being average, 18-13 and 3.52) at 129-47.

Don't have any idea what that has to do with Ichiro.

while hitting and pitching are different, HOF voters don't look at "win share" or these really vague statistics that the average baseball fan wouldn't know.

I'm not a big fan of WS anyway, and you don't need a complez measure to realize that while Ichiro is still an awesome player, he's not quite as great as many make him out to be. All you need is logic, knowledge of the game, and some idea of the value of offensive events. I'm not sure what you mean by complex statistics being "vague". I think they're about as non-vague as possible. Vague means they aren't specific and don't do whatever they can to get an accurate idea of a player's value/ability. They are extremely through and try to get everything accurate. I'm not a fan of total player metrics in general, but they're definitely not vague.

That the HOF voters don't look at them also, is a completely irrelevent point. We're not talking about whether he will get in. We're not trying to predict what the voters will do. I don't really care what the voters will do. The voters generally do an okay job IMO but they frequently make big mistakes (dropping Lou Whitaker on the first ballot, Alan Trammell consistently doesn't get as much support as Dave Concepcion, they elected Bruce Sutter but not Goose Gossage, they still haven't elected Bert Blyleven, and I'm sure there are many other examples), and I really don't care how they will react to a player. Their evaluations play no role in anything for me.

[ElHalo]

What makes you say he's playing in an inferior league? Even in terms of contact hitting, while the power numbers get a lot of attention, the league average BA right now in the AL is .270. The all time historical norm is .262.The league offensive levels don't indicate league quallity at all, but the level of hitting for average in the league right now is well above historic norms. You may not think most hitters today take that approach, but the result is still a relatively high BA in a historical sense. I agree Ichiro is a HOFer.

I believe he meant "coming from" an inferior league, as in from Japan.

[Walt Zink]

What makes you say he's playing in an inferior league? Even in terms of contact hitting, while the power numbers get a lot of attention, the league average BA right now in the AL is .270. The all time historical norm is .262.The league offensive levels don't indicate league quallity at all, but the level of hitting for average in the league right now is well above historic norms. You may not think most hitters today take that approach, but the result is still a relatively high BA in a historical sense. I agree Ichiro is a HOFer.



Don't have any idea what that has to do with Ichiro.



I'm not a big fan of WS anyway, and you don't need a complez measure to realize that while Ichiro is still an awesome player, he's not quite as great as many make him out to be. All you need is logic, knowledge of the game, and some idea of the value of offensive events. I'm not sure what you mean by complex statistics being "vague". I think they're about as non-vague as possible. Vague means they aren't specific and don't do whatever they can to get an accurate idea of a player's value/ability. They are extremely through and try to get everything accurate. I'm not a fan of total player metrics in general, but they're definitely not vague.

That the HOF voters don't look at them also, is a completely irrelevent point. We're not talking about whether he will get in. We're not trying to predict what the voters will do. I don't really care what the voters will do. The voters generally do an okay job IMO but they frequently make big mistakes (dropping Lou Whitaker on the first ballot, Alan Trammell consistently doesn't get as much support as Dave Concepcion, they elected Bruce Sutter but not Goose Gossage, they still haven't elected Bert Blyleven, and I'm sure there are many other examples), and I really don't care how they will react to a player. Their evaluations play no role in anything for me.


the koufax point is that he had a run of 6 years. he ended on that note. he was a marginal player up till '61, and just "figured it out" and dominated, but only for 6 years. he, however, was voted in.

the hall of fame means more than stats. too many people look at numbers and make a case for or against. if i go to a baseball game here in boston, and i look at the schedule, i would pick a game against seattle JUST to see ichiro play. and there are thousands of baseball fans that would do the same. i am new to the board here, and one thing i've noticed is this odd wont to display the most obscure baseball knowledge. numbers in baseball sometimes need to be tossed out the window. this guy is a HOFer because along with his japanese stats, he's batting around .340 or so, with nearly 3000 hits. he's simply an astonishing freak of nature when it comes to hitting, and i am sure if ted williams were alive, he would comment on him, also.

to me, the logic says the guy is a HOFer simply for the excitement he generates, also. i will imagine that if fans of whichever AL team makes it to the world series see a winner, they will think first of his inside the park HR in the all-star game, also! ;)


I believe he meant "coming from" an inferior league, as in from Japan.

thank you. that is what i was going for :)

[538280]

the koufax point is that he had a run of 6 years. he ended on that note. he was a marginal player up till '61, and just "figured it out" and dominated, but only for 6 years. he, however, was voted in.

And there's no dispute that he should have been voted in. I still am not getting the connection with Ichiro, When was he mediocre? He's always been very good, in Japan too.

the hall of fame means more than stats. too many people look at numbers and make a case for or against. if i go to a baseball game here in boston, and i look at the schedule, i would pick a game against seattle JUST to see ichiro play. and there are thousands of baseball fans that would do the same.

I agree, and I have said multiple times that Ichiro deserves the HOF for largely that reason. The HOF is about celebrating the game of baseball in part and honoring those who make it a great and exciting game, not only just always looking at a player's contributions to winning. Because of that fame factor I'd say Ichiro is a definite HOFer, and he'd get my vote, and I've already said that. My problem is just that people still often point to him as arguably the best player in the game or as "what's right with baseball today" and how it's really the nice singles hitters who help teams win and those sluggers who strike out really aren't worth anything. That's not true IMO and Ichiro's value, while very high, is also limited and not even close to where many believe it is, IMO.

i am new to the board here, and one thing i've noticed is this odd wont to display the most obscure baseball knowledge. numbers in baseball sometimes need to be tossed out the window.

Just like you said vague in your last post I am again not clear with your use of the word obscure here. There is nothing obscure about making valid points about the value of players and the value of offensive events. That is real inquiry into how teams win games and it is useful, even essential, knowlege to studying baseball. It's not obscure. It's extremely relevent.

this guy is a HOFer because along with his japanese stats, he's batting around .340 or so, with nearly 3000 hits.

You say you have to throw numbers out the window and then to make your point you use......numbers. And on top of that numbers that highlight his strength (hitting singles) and don't in any way give a full picture of his value.

he's simply an astonishing freak of nature when it comes to hitting, and i am sure if ted williams were alive, he would comment on him, also.

Aesthetically he is very,very impressive and exciting, and he deserves the HOF for that. Again, that shouldn't be confused with contributions to winning the game, though.

to me, the logic says the guy is a HOFer simply for the excitement he generates,

I do really agree with your point here completely, I'll say again.

[Erik Bedard]

I really can't see a HoF case for Ichiro based solely on the excitement he generates. I really have never found his style of play particularly exciting. Maybe it's because 1998 was the year I really became a baseball fan, or maybe it's because I find the "little guy playing among bigger guys and beating them" story line to be the most overused of all stories of all time. I don't know, I just don't find him particularly incredible to watch. But please correct me if you disagree, because maybe I'm totally missing something.

[Gregory Pratt]

I really can't see a HoF case for Ichiro based solely on the excitement he generates. I really have never found his style of play particularly exciting. Maybe it's because 1998 was the year I really became a baseball fan, or maybe it's because I find the "little guy playing among bigger guys and beating them" story line to be the most overused of all stories of all time. I don't know, I just don't find him particularly incredible to watch. But please correct me if you disagree, because maybe I'm totally missing something.

You're missing the point entirely. Ichiro throws with the strongest arm in baseball and fields with grace. He is classy and has the best bat control in the game. He runs faster than most and has an unusual, beautiful swing. He isn't a homerun hitter but could be. He does everything the "right way," is a good sport, cares about winning and the fans, leads the league in hits all the time...it's not about him being small. You're thinking of David Eckstein. It's about the way he plays the game and that is Very Damn Good.

Ichiro, incidentally, isn't that "small." He has a very strong body from the insane workout regimen he puts himself through.

[dl4060]

You're missing the point entirely. Ichiro throws with the strongest arm in baseball and fields with grace. He is classy and has the best bat control in the game. He runs faster than most and has an unusual, beautiful swing. He isn't a homerun hitter but could be. He does everything the "right way," is a good sport, cares about winning and the fans, leads the league in hits all the time...it's not about him being small. You're thinking of David Eckstein. It's about the way he plays the game and that is Very Damn Good.

Ichiro, incidentally, isn't that "small." He has a very strong body from the insane workout regimen he puts himself through.


I don't see how the excitement he generates is in and of itself worthy of the hall of fame. I am not missing any points here, I am aware of all the things you bring up, but Ichiro is more spectacular to watch than he is good at contributing to winning baseball games. I think his swing is absolutely hideous, nothing like that of a George Brett, a Ted Williams, or a Will Clark. I am aware of the points all of you Ichiro fans are trying to make, I just do not agree with them. Manny Ramirez contributes far more to winning baseball games than Ichiro does, because of the incredible value of his offense.

[538280]

You're missing the point entirely. Ichiro throws with the strongest arm in baseball and fields with grace. He is classy and has the best bat control in the game. He runs faster than most and has an unusual, beautiful swing. He isn't a homerun hitter but could be. He does everything the "right way," is a good sport, cares about winning and the fans, leads the league in hits all the time...it's not about him being small. You're thinking of David Eckstein. It's about the way he plays the game and that is Very Damn Good.

Ichiro, incidentally, isn't that "small." He has a very strong body from the insane workout regimen he puts himself through.

But, still the heart of your argument is excitement, or appealing style. The thing about that style is that it isn't that conducive to winning games. Erik is saying that while that style appeals to many people it doesn't appeal to him.

[Erik Bedard]

You're missing the point entirely. Ichiro throws with the strongest arm in baseball and fields with grace. He is classy and has the best bat control in the game. He runs faster than most and has an unusual, beautiful swing. He isn't a homerun hitter but could be. He does everything the "right way," is a good sport, cares about winning and the fans, leads the league in hits all the time...it's not about him being small. You're thinking of David Eckstein. It's about the way he plays the game and that is Very Damn Good.

Ichiro, incidentally, isn't that "small." He has a very strong body from the insane workout regimen he puts himself through.

I'm sorry, did you just say Ichiro has the strongest arm in baseball? He doesn't even have the strongest arm on his own team. Most accurate, sure, but Jose Guillen and Vlad Guerrero have stronger arms. Graceful fielding is nice, but I don't care about grace. Give me a guy like Eric Byrnes, who looks about as far from graceful as you can get, but still makes spectacular plays. Bat control doesn't help you win a game nearly as much as a powerful swing. Mel Ott had an unusual swing as well, but why should that earn him extra credit? Also, I wouldn't describe his swing as "beautiful". Perhaps the most fundamentally flawed in the game today.

Actually, he's 5'9". That is small. He's strong enough, but he's still small compared to other MLB players.

Maybe it's just me, but I don't find a fast singles hitter with a great arm particularly exciting, or deserving of HoF induction.

[Walt Zink]

last night he became the first player with 3 seasons of 230+ hit seasons. 7 seasons in the majors, 1586 (or about 227 hits a season). those #'s alone are mind blowing in our era of baseball. not to mention as a side note jimmy rollins had his 19th triple last night, and has 4 games left to get #20. i'm rooting for him, personally.

i have asked a lot of people who are baseball fans the question that if he retired at the end of the '07 season, would he be a first ballot guy. of about 2 dozen people i talked with? only one said no.

honestly, the #'s like "win-share" and "OPS+" and the fact that he hits a lot of singles are meaningless. the relation i bring between him and koufax is that he burst on the major league scene. i compare koufax and ichiro only from the perspective of their short runs at being dominant in the league. not that they bothe were "mediocre then good". average fans that go and pay money to watch the games love the guy. even fans of the opposing teams.

do we have different reasons for putting him in? yes. however, i think a lot of people here need to remember the average fan also has a very short attention span. i see names on here that maybe i would recognize (and since i'm only 32, my friends find it strange), but 99% of the fans out there won't. just like while i thought babe ruth should've gotten greatest athlete over jordan. jordan was very recent, and it influenced the voting to a large degree. is that right? no. it does happen, though. and like i said, to ask baseball fans here in boston. and all but one (so more than 95%) saying yes for ichiro JUST after this season. that tells me as long as he has a productive next 4 years and retires, he's easily a lock.

[Brad Harris]

Ichiro isn't the best hitter in the league and that's okay; he doesn't have to be to gain election. Assuming Ichiro is one day eligible for election to Cooperstown, I can't envision a legitimate rationale for not voting for him.

Compare Ichiro to Hall of Fame corner outfielders from age 27-33 and you'll see his production during his seven major league seasons is unquestionably Hall of Fame caliber. He may not do the things that help his team most to win - like, say, an Albert Pujols or Alex Rodriguez - but his skillset does have value and he does help his team win games. Lots of them. Advanced metrics don't deny this, nor do they imply Ichiro's skillset is unimportant. If anything, they help buffer his case for the Hall of Fame.

When I think of Ichiro, I think of historically similar players at the same ages and I marvel how Ichiro consistently stacks up well against guys like Ty Cobb, Rod Carew or Wade Boggs.

The Hall of Fame mandates a minimum eligibility of 10 seasons in the major leagues. If Ichiro meets that standard, he should be handily elected. If he fails to meet that standard and the Hall makes an exception because of his service time in Japan, then the voters are free to consider his play during those years also; only bolstering his already strong credentials.

Ichiro's case is built on what he did and when he did it, not on amassing high career totals (like 3,000 hits) or doing something more "sabermetric friendly" (like hit for power and draw walks). It's a strong case.

He's already got my vote.

[Walt Zink]

Ichiro isn't the best hitter in the league and that's okay; he doesn't have to be to gain election. Assuming Ichiro is one day eligible for election to Cooperstown, I can't envision a legitimate rationale for not voting for him.

Compare Ichiro to Hall of Fame corner outfielders from age 27-33 and you'll see his production during his seven major league seasons is unquestionably Hall of Fame caliber. He may not do the things that help his team most to win - like, say, an Albert Pujols or Alex Rodriguez - but his skillset does have value and he does help his team win games. Lots of them. Advanced metrics don't deny this, nor do they imply Ichiro's skillset is unimportant. If anything, they help buffer his case for the Hall of Fame.

When I think of Ichiro, I think of historically similar players at the same ages and I marvel how Ichiro consistently stacks up well against guys like Ty Cobb, Rod Carew or Wade Boggs.

The Hall of Fame mandates a minimum eligibility of 10 seasons in the major leagues. If Ichiro meets that standard, he should be handily elected. If he fails to meet that standard and the Hall makes an exception because of his service time in Japan, then the voters are free to consider his play during those years also; only bolstering his already strong credentials.

Ichiro's case is built on what he did and when he did it, not on amassing high career totals (like 3,000 hits) or doing something more "sabermetric friendly" (like hit for power and draw walks). It's a strong case.

He's already got my vote.

well, when i posed the question (i asked a few more people, all said yes), i left it as "if ichiro were to retire at the end of '07 with 7 full major league seasons, would he be a first-ballot HOFer?"

and all but one (up to around 30 people now) emphatically said yes. zero hesitation. the one "no" said he needed a few more years. however, do we automatically discount his japanese stats? it's a good question to ask, since he's raking AL pitchers for hits for 7 full seasons, now.

[538280]

honestly, the #'s like "win-share" and "OPS+" and the fact that he hits a lot of singles are meaningless.

Nobody in this thread that I know of has referenced Win Shares to show Ichiro is not a HOFer. OPS+ is not something complex and is very simple: it's just a player's OBP and SLG compared to league average, with a park adjustment. It's just OBP and SLG. I don't understand how you could say that that has no relation to anything and is completely meaningless. Teams score runs by getting runners on and moving them along, and OBP and SLG can approximate that. Together they have a great relationship with runs scored. Is it everything? Absolutely not. Ichiro is a great basestealer and baserunner and because of this added value (just like Rickey Henderson or Tim Raines of Joe Morgan) his overall offensive value is higher than OPS+ would suggest. Ichiro is also a tremendous defensive OFer which of course is not factored into OPS+. OPS+ is just a good quick measure of how productive a hitter is. Ichiro, strictly as a hitter, is not up to HOF standards from his position IMO. As an overall player, however, he is.

[jalbright]

Nobody in this thread that I know of has referenced Win Shares to show Ichiro is not a HOFer. OPS+ is not something complex and is very simple: it's just a player's OBP and SLG compared to league average, with a park adjustment. It's just OBP and SLG. I don't understand how you could say that that has no relation to anything and is completely meaningless. Teams score runs by getting runners on and moving them along, and OBP and SLG can approximate that. Together they have a great relationship with runs scored. Is it everything? Absolutely not. Ichiro is a great basestealer and baserunner and because of this added value (just like Rickey Henderson or Tim Raines of Joe Morgan) his overall offensive value is higher than OPS+ would suggest. Ichiro is also a tremendous defensive OFer which of course is not factored into OPS+. OPS+ is just a good quick measure of how productive a hitter is. Ichiro, strictly as a hitter, is not up to HOF standards from his position IMO. As an overall player, however, he is.

Gee, Chris, when you talk about OPS+, you kind of sound like me when I discuss gray and black ink with you. :lookitup ;) :D :crazy :laugh :waving

[538280]

Gee, Chris, when you talk about OPS+, you kind of sound like me when I discuss gray and black ink with you. :lookitup ;) :D :crazy :laugh :waving

The thing that's different about OPS+ is that it DOES give a good indication of what it is trying to measure, and that is a player's hitting value. It isn't perfect there-but it's still very accurate. The reason why isn't accurate for a total player evaluation is because it doesn't even attempt to include everything. If you think OPS+ is a total player evaluation then you're using it wrong.

Black and Gray Ink aren't accurate for anything. The measures used by both ink scores are essentially the counting stats and triple crown stats that have been shown time and time again to be very misleading and not very useful measures of value. It doesn't make any sense to look at those when you have something like OPS+ that DOES use specifics, a specific percentage above league, rather than arbitrary weights, and using statistics that have a good relationship with run scoring rather than counting and triple crown stats.

[jalbright]

Black and Gray Ink aren't accurate for anything. The measures used by both ink scores are essentially the counting stats and triple crown stats that have been shown time and time again to be very misleading and not very useful measures of value. It doesn't make any sense to look at those when you have something like OPS+ that DOES use specifics, a specific percentage above league, rather than arbitrary weights, and using statistics that have a good relationship with run scoring rather than counting and triple crown stats.

I've told you why you dramatically overstate the case on this before. Yes, they're not ideal measures, but they have the ability to separate many of the best players out--and, depending on how limited your data is, they may be the best tools available. If there are better measures available, sure, you can use those others. However, using my article on the best in Cuban baseball under Castro, I don't have anything like OPS+, yet I was able to formulate a credible list of the greatest in Cuba. When I used a similar approach on Japanese players before I had the data which permitted the use of other measures, the method produced a more than acceptable list. You may not like it, but my experience demonstrates the inks are hardly as useless as you claim.

Jim Albright

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Black and Gray Ink aren't accurate for anything. The measures used by both ink scores are essentially the counting stats and triple crown stats that have been shown time and time again to be very misleading and not very useful measures of value. It doesn't make any sense to look at those when you have something like OPS+ that DOES use specifics, a specific percentage above league, rather than arbitrary weights, and using statistics that have a good relationship with run scoring rather than counting and triple crown stats.
Chris,

I don't know how many times I keep having to tell you this? :crazy Bill James explains this in his Hall of Fame book. Black/Grey Ink values are weighted in a way that James believes correlates with how the HoF voters have voted. It has nothing to do with "value". Triple Crown stats are more heavily weighted because the HoF voters place great weight on them. He uses 200 hit seasons as an example. Historically players with many 200 hit seasons have done well. Does this mean that a player like Michael Young, with five 200 hit seasons, is better than Jimmy Rollins? No, of course not. But if Young ends up with say 7-9 200 hit seasons and 2,700+ hits he will have HoF support. You wait and see. You have to understand that HoF voters don't care about "value" and given their traditionalist bent "value" will never carry much weight with them.

[plask_stirlac]

well, when i posed the question (i asked a few more people, all said yes), i left it as "if ichiro were to retire at the end of '07 with 7 full major league seasons, would he be a first-ballot HOFer?"

and all but one (up to around 30 people now) emphatically said yes. zero hesitation. the one "no" said he needed a few more years. however, do we automatically discount his japanese stats? it's a good question to ask, since he's raking AL pitchers for hits for 7 full seasons, now.

Wow. That's quite the result.

[Walt Zink]

Wow. That's quite the result.

well, do me a favor then. walk through a random major league ballpark, and ask the question the way i posed it. 50$ you will get an overwhelming "yes" for an answer.

now, when you look at poll numbers, regardless of subject, do you think they poll every person in our nation? the only thing i left out was +/- of %age. you multiply my findings by, say, 25 and i can guarantee it may be around 92-93% saying yes with a +/- %age of 6 percent. that's a guess, but i'd say it's pretty accurate.

as said, this guy is a freak of nature when it comes to hitting, and exciting to watch play. not to mention, you replace him in the lineup, you may get a guy that hits not too far less, but you lose gate receipts in the tens of thousands over the course of a year.

as said, the numbers stated are so incredibly overrated. plain and simple? get on base? awesome. this guy has more than proven he can wreak havoc and he's a first ballot gut hands down.

[plask_stirlac]

Yes but doing that with Jim Rice in 1984 or that period would've been a landslide in for him as well. Or Mattingly in 1989 if he could have more years on his resume, he'd get in, no sweat.

Or, take Ralph Kiner, it took 20 years.

The fans don't vote, or Jeter would have two, maybe three MVPs, Pujols would have two or three more, and it'd be zero All-Star games for Jason Bay. If several voters, as we saw on the Smoltz thread (Kurkjian, Gammons, et al) say Ichiro is this lock, then that's great evidence.

[Brad Harris]

well, when i posed the question (i asked a few more people, all said yes), i left it as "if ichiro were to retire at the end of '07 with 7 full major league seasons, would he be a first-ballot HOFer?"

and all but one (up to around 30 people now) emphatically said yes. zero hesitation. the one "no" said he needed a few more years. however, do we automatically discount his japanese stats? it's a good question to ask, since he's raking AL pitchers for hits for 7 full seasons, now.

Firstly, let me say that were he eligible for election under such a scenario and I had a vote, Ichiro would get it. And yes, I factor in that Ichiro was a great player in Japan before coming over here, too, as I find his success there relevant to the question of whether Ichiro is a great player period. That being said, under your scenario of Ichiro retiring at the end of this year, the man would never be eligible for the Hall of Fame unless they change the rules to accomodate him. Whether that would happen or not is certainly questionable and I really don't know how the voters would respond to a candidate for whom the rules would indeed be changed, just to get him on the ballot.

The closest scenario to yours that I can picture actually happening would be for Ichiro to produce virtually no value as a ballplayer for all or parts of three more seasons, retire at the end of 2010 and then debut on the BBWAA ballot in 2016, the same as any other player with 10+ years of MLB service who retires that year. I doubt he'd be elected on the first ballot under such a scenario, but he'd receive my vote from the get-go.

[Erik Bedard]

That line of thinking just doesn't click with me. Would anybody vote for Sam Rice based solely on his first ten years?

[Brad Harris]

That line of thinking just doesn't click with me. Would anybody vote for Sam Rice based solely on his first ten years?

No, of course not and I can't fathom how that's remotely similar to what I was suggesting.

Rice's first ten seasons were 1915-1924. Rice had 1,413 hits during that time. Rice wasn't kept out of the majors before 1915 for a reason besides his own play. Rice wasn't one of the greatest players in baseball from 1915-1924. (He was 20th in hits during that time.) Rice didn't just fail to topple his contemporary competition during that time, he failed to stack up against historically great players of the game's past. The whole reason Rice's name is even mentioned as a comp is precisely because Ichiro's seven years have been historically unique. What Ichrio has done from 2001-2007 has never been done before.

Consider that not only has no player has collected as many hits from their age 27 to age 33 seasons, no player has collected as many hits in any stretch of seven consecutive seasons! Forget Sam Rice; Ty Cobb didn't even do that!

Ichiro has won an MVP Award, is a 7-time All-Star, and has 6 (possibly) 7 gold gloves on his resume. He is a player of historical import because of his unique status as the first Japanese star in the major leagues, as well.

While Rice may not have debuted in the major leagues until age 25, Ichiro was arguably the best player in his league for half a dozen years before he was able to play in the major leagues. The argument for extra credit here is similar to the argument for a Lefty Grove or a negro league star. The issue is simply this: Ichiro was a great baseball player, whether he was in the major leagues or not during those early seasons. You can't make the same kind of claim for Rice.

Ichiro's "first ten years" don't necessarily begin in 2001. Secondly, regardless, if the Hall's minimum standard for eligibility is 10 years, then we have to accept that there are going to be some 10, 11 or 12-year players who, in fact, are great enough to warrant induction.

If Alex Rodriguez retired after 10 years, or Albert Pujols (assuming more of the same), would any right-minded person really suggest they're not a Hall of Famer?

Do the greatest players in history really have to hang on for another decade of play, at a much lower level, just to reach certain preconceived career totals? Johnny Bench wasn't much of a ballplayer beyond his first ten seasons or so. Frank Thomas wasn't the same in the second half of his career.

The Hall itself says that a 10-year career can be good enough. I don't see what the problem is with (a) giving Ichiro credit for his JL work and (b) looking at Ichiro's major league career (albeit brief) as anything less than greatness.

[Brad Harris]

Most Hits, First Seven Seasons
1,587 Ichiro Suzuki, 2001-2007
1,452 Paul Waner, 1926-1932
1,407 Kirby Puckett, 1984-1990
1,392 Wade Boggs, 1982-1988
1,380 Al Simmons, 1924-1930

Most Hits, Age 27-33
1,587 Ichiro Suzuki, 2001-2007
1,470 Jesse Burkett, 1896-1902
1,438 Pete Rose, 1968-1974
1,434 Wade Boggs, 1985-1991
1,428 Lou Gehrig, 1930-1936

Highest Batting Average, First Seven Seasons, Post-WWII
.356 Wade Boggs, 1982-1988
.337 Todd Helton, 1997-2003
.333 Ichiro Suzuki, 2001-2007
.331 Albert Pujols, 2001-2007
.327 Frank Thomas, 1990-1996

Highest Batting Average, Ages 27-33, Post-WWII
.351 Rod Carew, 1973-1979
.346 Stan Musial, 1948-1954
.345 Wade Boggs, 1985-1991
.333 Ichiro Suzuki, 2001-2007
.332 Tony Gwynn, 1987-1993

[brett]

Consider that not only has no player has collected as many hits from their age 27 to age 33 seasons, no player has collected as many hits in any stretch of seven consecutive seasons! Forget Sam Rice; Ty Cobb didn't even do that!


Because Ty Cobb was too good. Ichiro does so little damage on an average hit that the opposition is not going to try to paint the corners. They would rather let him put it in play and have to run out an infield hit.

I suspect that Ichiro may produce the least value "per hit" in baseball (excluding baserunning once he's on). His relative isolated power is 0.54, and that doesn't even account for the reduced value of infield hits.

Let's face it, you are not going to get 262 hits in an incredible season. If you are having an incredible season, you are going to be walked too much for that to happen.

[brett]

Compare Ichiro to Hall of Fame corner outfielders from age 27-33 and you'll see his production during his seven major league seasons is unquestionably Hall of Fame caliber. He may not do the things that help his team most to win - like, say, an Albert Pujols or Alex Rodriguez - but his skillset does have value and he does help his team win games. Lots of them. Advanced metrics don't deny this, nor do they imply Ichiro's skillset is unimportant. If anything, they help buffer his case for the Hall of Fame.


Ichiro should make the hall of fame. He is a great fielder, and even more valuable now that he is in centerfield. He is a great baserunner. He is not a similar hitter to Cobb, Boggs or Gwinn in the context of his time. All of them were much better hitters relative to the offensive environment that they played in.

[Erik Bedard]

No, of course not and I can't fathom how that's remotely similar to what I was suggesting.

Rice's first ten seasons were 1915-1924. Rice had 1,413 hits during that time. Rice wasn't kept out of the majors before 1915 for a reason besides his own play. Rice wasn't one of the greatest players in baseball from 1915-1924. (He was 20th in hits during that time.) Rice didn't just fail to topple his contemporary competition during that time, he failed to stack up against historically great players of the game's past. The whole reason Rice's name is even mentioned as a comp is precisely because Ichiro's seven years have been historically unique. What Ichrio has done from 2001-2007 has never been done before.

Consider that not only has no player has collected as many hits from their age 27 to age 33 seasons, no player has collected as many hits in any stretch of seven consecutive seasons! Forget Sam Rice; Ty Cobb didn't even do that!

Ichiro has won an MVP Award, is a 7-time All-Star, and has 6 (possibly) 7 gold gloves on his resume. He is a player of historical import because of his unique status as the first Japanese star in the major leagues, as well.

While Rice may not have debuted in the major leagues until age 25, Ichiro was arguably the best player in his league for half a dozen years before he was able to play in the major leagues. The argument for extra credit here is similar to the argument for a Lefty Grove or a negro league star. The issue is simply this: Ichiro was a great baseball player, whether he was in the major leagues or not during those early seasons. You can't make the same kind of claim for Rice.

Ichiro's "first ten years" don't necessarily begin in 2001. Secondly, regardless, if the Hall's minimum standard for eligibility is 10 years, then we have to accept that there are going to be some 10, 11 or 12-year players who, in fact, are great enough to warrant induction.

If Alex Rodriguez retired after 10 years, or Albert Pujols (assuming more of the same), would any right-minded person really suggest they're not a Hall of Famer?

Do the greatest players in history really have to hang on for another decade of play, at a much lower level, just to reach certain preconceived career totals? Johnny Bench wasn't much of a ballplayer beyond his first ten seasons or so. Frank Thomas wasn't the same in the second half of his career.

The Hall itself says that a 10-year career can be good enough. I don't see what the problem is with (a) giving Ichiro credit for his JL work and (b) looking at Ichiro's major league career (albeit brief) as anything less than greatness.

First off, you can't give Ichiro credit for his Japanese play when talking about the HoF. If you're talking about how good he is, then sure, go a head. Bu Japanese credit were allowed in HoF consideration, Sadaharu Oh would be in long before now, as well as many others.

Second off, Rice, as you said, had 1413 hits through his first seven full seasons, and Ichiro has 1587 through his first seven. However, Ichiro's hits have come in a far more inflated offensive era. Ichiro has had 301 XBH, Rice had 333 (not counting his three partial seasons). Rice also walked a bit more, and struck out a lot less. Ichiro has a bit more HR power, but Rice played in Griffith Stadium, which was not exactly HR heaven. Ichiro steals a few more bases, but it's not like Rice was slow, either. So offensively, they're practically a wash, with Ichiro probably having a small edge. Both have reputations as great defensive outfielders, so that could be considered a wash as well. Bottom line, Ichiro is practically a wash with Sam Rice over both players' first seven full seasons. I'm not sure where the dichotomy between Rice and Ichiro arises, unless you decide to give him Japanese credit, which, as I said earlier, shouldn't be valid.

[Edgartohof]

First off, you can't give Ichiro credit for his Japanese play when talking about the HoF. If you're talking about how good he is, then sure, go a head. Bu Japanese credit were allowed in HoF consideration, Sadaharu Oh would be in long before now, as well as many others.

But Oh never played in the MLB...Ichiro has. Cann you honestly say that Ichiro wasn't good enough to play in the MLB before 2001? No you can't. He was clearly ready to play at this level at age 20. He made the transition seamlessly.

[Erik Bedard]

Okay, but do you want to give him credit for his Japanese play? Ryan Howard spent a bunch of time in the minors, and made the transition to the majors seamlessly... are you going to give him credit for that?

[plask_stirlac]

If Ichiro keeps putting up 124 OPS+ with 37/44 SB as a CF (one error!), then he'll easily get in. That's great metrically or not.

[Brad Harris]

First off, you can't give Ichiro credit for his Japanese play when talking about the HoF. If you're talking about how good he is, then sure, go a head. Bu Japanese credit were allowed in HoF consideration, Sadaharu Oh would be in long before now, as well as many others....

....Okay, but do you want to give him credit for his Japanese play? Ryan Howard spent a bunch of time in the minors, and made the transition to the majors seamlessly... are you going to give him credit for that?

Wholly different case than Oh's. Without a rule change, Oh will never be eligible for the Hall. We have no way of knowing how Oh might of performed in the major leagues. We can make an educated guess, but we'll never truly know the way we have an actual record of achievement by which to guage Ichiro's greatness. Ichiro will qualify for election. I'm not suggesting that his Japanese play merits election; I'm saying that his JL play should suggest Ichiro's production for several seasons prior to 2001 would have been of similar quality that we've witnessed these past seven years and that, I believe, is pertinent to the argument that he belongs in the Hall of Fame.

Ichiro was a great player, capable of starring in the major leagues, for years prior to his major league debut. He was kept from doing so by factors beyond his control, none of which had anything to do with his skill as a ballplayer.

The example of Ryan Howard is silly. Howard spent three years hitting at Single A in the minors. The organization started Howard at AA the following year, quickly promoting him to AAA. As the best hitter in the Phillies' minor league system that season, Howard got a September call-up to the big league club. Starting the following season at AAA, Howard was promoted to the big league roster, for good, just two months into the season, where he hit well enough to earn the NL Rookie of the Year Award. Howard's progression through the minor leagues was perfectly normal for any ballplayer. He proved himself at each level of competition until he was given the opportunity to do so in the majors.

Ichiro, on the other hand, spent seven years as a superstar player in a league that's somewhat better than the AAA level, was denied an opportunity to play in the majors during that time because of structural rules which had nothing to do with his development as a player and everything to do with the fact he was born a Japanese. Ichiro not only made the transition seamlessly, he's starred as one of the best players in the major leagues in his seven years since.

It's not the same thing.

Furthermore, that you don't think credit ought to be applied doesn't change the fact that there are voters who will apply it. The Hall of Fame's voting guidelines don't specify that credit should be applied to players who missed seasons due to serving in WWII. Should we not take that into consideration when dealing with those players?

Perhaps a better comparison for Ichiro's case is that of Minnie Minoso, or any other former negro-leaguer who lost the earliest years of his career to the color line. Looking at Ichiro, we're not looking at a 7-year player; we're looking at a guy who value as a professional ballplayer extends beyond the major league seasons he's accumulated to date.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

I'm not suggesting that his Japanese play merits election; I'm saying that his JL play should suggest Ichiro's production for several seasons prior to 2001 would have been of similar quality that we've witnessed these past seven years and that, I believe, is pertinent to the argument that he belongs in the Hall of Fame.

Ichiro was a great player, capable of starring in the major leagues, for years prior to his major league debut. He was kept from doing so by factors beyond his control, none of which had anything to do with his skill as a ballplayer.

Here are Ichiro's performances at age 20-21:

Age 20: .385/.437/.549, 210 H, 111 R, 54 RBI, 13 HR, 41 doubles, 29 SB
Age 21: .342/.417/.544, 179 H, 104 R, 80 RBI, 25 HR, 23 doubles, 49 SB

His 210 hit season is the only 200 hit season in Japanese baseball history. If some 20-21 yeard old was putting up these numbers in Double-A or Triple-A how soon would have been up in the majors?

[Senor Octobre]

Ichiro is, if nothing else, consistently great at what he does. By my estimation this year has been his third greatest year in the ML's after '04 and his rookie season.

[Walt Zink]

that's just it. i think the average fan (as well as hall voters) would discern the difference between the japanese league and the minors. to make that sort of analogy is somewhat of a slap in the face to those guys overseas. remember, japan won that little world baseball championship, also. they're no slouch when it comes to "our" game.

like i said earlier, i look through a red sox schedule, i see seattle is in town, i instantly go "ichiro. damn, i should go check it out." a lot of people i know love watching him play, even if he goes 0 for 4. he plays the right way, by hustling and while he isn't perfect by any means, i'd take him on my team long before some of the guys who are batting leadoff in the majors right now.

he may not live up to hall of fame standards (as of now) to those who use too many numbers (and for god's sake, there are ENOUGH of them already!). they may point to silly things that no normal joe everyday would know, like win shares, but it's been beaten into the ground that regardless, pretty much everyone at some point during his career will say he's a hall of famer.

[2Chance]

originally posted by Walt Zink
. . . . i'd take him on my team long before some of the guys who are batting leadoff in the majors right now.
Here's a point that I think has been overlooked. People who want to cite OPS/OPS+ while looking at Ichiro are not taking into account that he is a leadoff hitter. His job is different than the #3 hitter. He's supposed to get on base. That's it. His job isn't to hit the doubles and homers, numbers which increase his "-PS". The #2 hitter is supposed to move him up, and the #3 guy (and failing that, the cleanup hitter) is supposed to drive him in.

You can criticize him for not drawing walks, but if I have a guy hitting .350 I won't worry too much about that. If Ichiro starts hitting .280, he and the manager are going to have a little talk about patience at the plate. But in seven years that we know of, he hasn't really needed it.

[538280]

Here's a point that I think has been overlooked. People who want to cite OPS/OPS+ while looking at Ichiro are not taking into account that he is a leadoff hitter. His job is different than the #3 hitter. He's supposed to get on base. That's it. His job isn't to hit the doubles and homers, numbers which increase his "-PS". The #2 hitter is supposed to move him up, and the #3 guy (and failing that, the cleanup hitter) is supposed to drive him in.

You can criticize him for not drawing walks, but if I have a guy hitting .350 I won't worry too much about that. If Ichiro starts hitting .280, he and the manager are going to have a little talk about patience at the plate. But in seven years that we know of, he hasn't really needed it.

Your point isn't totally invalid to me, but, Ichiro is a leadoff hitter because of his skills, not the other way around. When managers make lineups they put players who get on base a lot at the top of the order because they think they have the ability to get on base a lot, unless they have power, in which case they don't want to waste their power at leadoff and usually put them in the middle of the order. The way I see it, Ichiro doesn't not have much power because he's a leadoff hitter. He's a leadoff hitter because he doesn't have much power. The fact that he bats leadoff may be seen as because of a limitation in his skill/ability. Besides, Ichiro isn't necessarily great in a historical sense at getting on base either. He's very, very good, but he's not really dominant in that category. He has only finished top 10 in OBP three times, and two of the were a 9th and a 10th. Only once has he been top 5 which was a 2nd in 2004.

For those who are going to say that Ichiro could hit for power if he wanted to as is said quite often, in this case it doesn't matter what he supposedly can do but what he probably will do.

Also, the concept that hitters should be evaluated totally differently based on lineup position isn't really logical, IMO. Maybe a little differently, but not much. This is something I may have changed my mind on in time. The leadoff hitter is only leadoff once a game, after that he isn't much differnt than other hitters. Also, batting order really isn't a key factor in how many runs a team will score. If you take players of the same hitting ability, re-arranging them in the order isn't going to do much to change how many runs they're going to produce. Baseball Prospectus has done numerous studies on this. So radically changing the evaluation of a player based on something that has really very little impact anyway (batting order) again isn't that logical.

[2Chance]

originally posted by 538280
Ichiro is a leadoff hitter because of his skills, not the other way around. . . . Ichiro doesn't not have much power because he's a leadoff hitter. He's a leadoff hitter because he doesn't have much power. The fact that he bats leadoff may be seen as because of a limitation in his skill/ability.
I totally agree with you, up to the last sentence. I don't see a guy who regularly hits .330+ as having a skill limitation. I see this as a part of his skill set. You work with what you have. You need a guy at the top of the lineup who is speedy and gets on base. When you get to the middle of the lineup you put guys who are bigger, slower and hit the ball farther. We don't bat Ichiro third for the same reason we don't ask Frank Thomas to distract the pitcher by taking a long lead at first. Again, I don't see this as a limitation on Thomas' part, just his skill set is different.

Semantically we're really splitting hairs here, but like I said, if you're a manager, you work with what you have. If Frank Thomas gets on first, you don't say ":grouchy , I wish Frank were fast!" You're glad he's on your team, maybe disappointed his hit wasn't for extra bases and if the situation calls for it you put in a pinch runner. And if you're the manager, Ichiro doesn't bat third.

Besides, Ichiro isn't necessarily great in a historical sense at getting on base either . . . .
We can agree on all that went with this, too. His real value to a team is his batting average, and the GM and manager will want to agree that a hit is better than a walk.

For those who are going to say that Ichiro could hit for power if he wanted to as is said quite often, in this case it doesn't matter what he supposedly can do but what he probably will do.
Agree again, and I doubt you'll get any takers on this argument! :)

Also, the concept that hitters should be evaluated totally differently based on lineup position isn't really logical, IMO. Maybe a little differently, but not much. This is something I may have changed my mind on in time. The leadoff hitter is only leadoff once a game, after that he isn't much different than other hitters. Also, batting order really isn't a key factor in how many runs a team will score. If you take players of the same hitting ability, re-arranging them in the order isn't going to do much to change how many runs they're going to produce. Baseball Prospectus has done numerous studies on this. So radically changing the evaluation of a player based on something that has really very little impact anyway (batting order) again isn't that logical.
Okay, we found someplace to disagree. This sounds logical on the surface, but the fallacy comes where you consider taking "players of the same hitting ability." Most managers do not have this luxury. The last time I can remember it for sure was a Detroit team from the early 90s, built for Tiger Stadium. Guys like Rob Deer and Pete Incaviglia. These guys had the same hitting ability. They'd do good to hit their weight, but from one to nine they could all put one into the stands. Rearranging these guys in the batting order really couldn't help or hinder you. Some of them could potentially get their average well over .260, and they were all bunched together, just in case.

But seriously, if batting order doesn't make any difference, why do we need a manager to create a lineup? When you look at this year's Yankees, it makes sense that you put Johnny Damon at leadoff, and bat Jeter second. Both these guys were made for that position in the order. You're right that it's only guaranteed to happen once in a game, but still when Damon gets on base they have a better chance to score with Jeter coming up behind him than if Jeter was on base and Damon was next. Plus, it makes sense to have those guys in that position than for Steinbrenner to deal for Ryan Howard and Albert Pujols and try batting them one and two. (Don't laugh. Randy Smith might have tried this, if there was a low-budget Howard & Pujols out there somewhere.) If he had them, they would still go down in the order somewhere.

Evaluating the players, you should see that they have done what you asked them to do, to the best of their ability. If Johnny Damon, who we have determined will be our leadoff hitter, decides to change his stroke and try for 30 home runs, do you think he will get a raise? He will more likely get a cursing as his OBP falls while he tries to add power. "We need you to get on first! Let Abreu and A-Rod knock you in, knucklehead!" will be the kindest thing he will hear. Then with Damon and Jeter on base, if Rodriguez shortens up to bunt with one out, Joe Torre's going to come out of the dugout like George Brett on a bad pine tar day. The guys have to do their assigned jobs, and be evaluated based on that.

[538280]

I totally agree with you, up to the last sentence. I don't see a guy who regularly hits .330+ as having a skill limitation.

The limitation has nothing to do with his batting average. The limitation is that he doesn't have much power. If he hit .340/.400/.550 every year he wouldn't be hitting leadoff. He'd be hitting 3rd or 4th probably. My point is that it doesn't really make sense IMO to say Ichiro's lack of power doesn't matter just because of his lineup position when the only reason he's in that lineup position is that lack of power. If Ichiro hit 30-40 HRs a year he wouldn't be hitting leadoff.

I see this as a part of his skill set. You work with what you have. You need a guy at the top of the lineup who is speedy and gets on base.

Ichiro is both those things, but again if he had power as well he wouldn't be hitting leadoff.

When you get to the middle of the lineup you put guys who are bigger, slower and hit the ball farther. We don't bat Ichiro third for the same reason we don't ask Frank Thomas to distract the pitcher by taking a long lead at first. Again, I don't see this as a limitation on Thomas' part, just his skill set is different.

But skill sets define value-you can't say we can't penalize a player for not having power because his skill set doesn't include that. We can't not penalize a player for not having speed just because his skill set doesn't include that. A player is evaluated based on what his skill set does for the team winning-what that skill set has or doesn't have. Ichiro's skill set has speed but not power. Frank Thomas' skill set has power but not speed.

Semantically we're really splitting hairs here, but like I said, if you're a manager, you work with what you have.

Exactly, you work with your players' strengths AND weaknesses. You can't just focus on strengths of skill sets and act as if weaknesses don't exist just because it's not part of the image of the player. You seem to be saying "Ichiro doens't look like a guy who has power, so it's unfair to say that he would be more valuable if he had power". But really you should just look at everything a player does-and how much that contributes to the team winning. As an offensive player, Ichiro's lack of power really holds him back.


But seriously, if batting order doesn't make any difference, why do we need a manager to create a lineup?

Batting order does make a difference-to the tune of about 20 runs a year between the most optimal and least optimal. That has been suppported by numerous studies and simulations. That's hardly significant in the one-game level, but it's still worth doing over a season. 20 runs is about 2 wins and 2 wins can be the difference between playoffs and no playoffs. It's still clearly worth it making up a good lineup on the manager's part to make up what he thinks is an optimal lineup for those runs-but it really wouldn't be all that differnent if he just picked his lineup out of a hat every day. It would be a little different, but not hugely. Where there may be a larger difference is in how the players feel about it, and how that could affect their performance. Most players have been hitting in a particular spot or close to it their whole career and they feel comfortable there. A manager shouldn't change that because even if you think player A is better suited to hitting 5th if he's a lot more comfortable hitting 6th or 7th he'll probably do more for you there just because of the comfort level. The difference in terms of run scoring for a small difference in batting order is very, very small.

When you look at this year's Yankees, it makes sense that you put Johnny Damon at leadoff, and bat Jeter second. Both these guys were made for that position in the order. You're right that it's only guaranteed to happen once in a game, but still when Damon gets on base they have a better chance to score with Jeter coming up behind him than if Jeter was on base and Damon was next. Plus, it makes sense to have those guys in that position than for Steinbrenner to deal for Ryan Howard and Albert Pujols and try batting them one and two. (Don't laugh. Randy Smith might have tried this, if there was a low-budget Howard & Pujols out there somewhere.) If he had them, they would still go down in the order somewhere.

That logic is what leads to managers making up close to optimal lineups-but, again, it makes a very small difference on a season. A veryn small difference is still worth it, but it isn't great enough that changing evaluation of players based on lineup position makes much sense. You should read the book Baseball Between the Numbers.

[2Chance]

Well done. I'll pick up that book some time this winter.

[Edgartohof]

If Ichiro hit 30-40 HRs a year he wouldn't be hitting leadoff.

Soriano anyone? :)

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Soriano anyone? :)

Soriano is not a good leadoff hitter. With his power and low OBP he is more suited for the 3-5 positions

[Erik Bedard]

If Soriano didn't complain about where he hit, he'd be batting third, fourth, or fifth every day.

[Edgartohof]

Soriano is not a good leadoff hitter. With his power and low OBP he is more suited for the 3-5 positions

I know, I was just saying that it isn't impossible to have a HR hitter in the #1 hole. Of course that is the exception, and not the norm. Even Rickey who had a couple good HR seasons (28, 28, 24, 21), doesn't even come close to what Soriano is doing in the HR department (though he exceled in pretty much every other department).

And it was more of a joke anyways - ergo the Smiley.

[Seattle1]

I like the word "ergo."

:)

[Seattle1]

Ichiro nabs second Silver Slugger
Mariners outfielder continues to excel at record-setting pace (http://seattle.mariners.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20071109&content_id=2296928&vkey=news_sea&fext=.jsp&c_id=sea)
By Bob Sherwin / Special to MLB.com

SEATTLE -- Ichiro Suzuki is in mid-offseason form, accepting the laurels for yet another stellar season.

On Friday, the Seattle Mariners center fielder won his second career Silver Slugger Award, which recognizes the best offensive producer at every position in both leagues. He also won the award in 2001, his rookie season in which he captured the batting title (.350), the stolen-base title (56) and the American League MVP.

The award comes three days after Ichiro won his seventh straight Gold Glove.

The Silver Slugger winners are determined by a vote of Major League Baseball coaches and managers. Selections are based on a combination of offensive statistics, including batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage, as well as the coaches' and managers' general impressions of a player's overall offensive value.

Managers and coaches were not allowed to vote for players on their own teams.

Ichiro finished the 2007 season with a .351 average, second in the AL behind Detroit's Magglio Ordonez (.363). He had a Major League-leading 238 hits, reaching the 200-hit plateau for a seventh straight season. Only Wee Willie Keeler had a longer streak of eight seasons (1894-1901).

Ichiro led the league in infield hits (53) and multihit games (76), was fourth in steals (37), eighth in runs (111) and ninth in on-base percentage (.396). He had the league's second-longest hitting streak, a club-record 25 games, was first in average against right-handers (.396), and had the highest average in Interleague Play (.486).

While power guys traditionally dominate this award -- Ichiro hit just six home runs -- the 33-year-old native of Japan earned his way into this elite group with the league's second-best average with runners in scoring position at .397.

Among the other formidable achievements for Ichiro last season were:

• MVP of the All-Star Game in San Francisco. He went 3-for-3, including the first inside-the-park home run.

• First player in modern history to have three 230-plus-hit seasons (262 in 2004; 242 in 2001).

• Played in his 1,000th big league game on May 24, and his 1,414 hits were the second most in that span.

• Finished the season with 1,592 hits, most for any player in any seven-year period.

• Hit .427 in June, highest average in club history for that month, his sixth career month at .400-plus.

• Set the AL record with 45 consecutive stolen bases without being caught.

• Led the Majors with a club-record .998 fielding percentage, one error in 433 chances.

Joining Ichiro with Silver Slugger Awards in the AL are: first baseman Carlos Pena, Tampa Bay; second baseman Placido Polanco, Detroit; third baseman Alex Rodriguez, New York; shortstop Derek Jeter, New York; outfielder Vladimir Guerrero, Los Angeles; catcher Jorge Posada, New York; designated hitter David Ortiz, Boston; and Ordonez.

The National League team is comprised of: first baseman Prince Fielder, Milwaukee; second baseman Chase Utley, Philadelphia; third baseman David Wright, New York; shortstop Jimmy Rollins, Philadelphia; outfielder Carlos Beltran, New York; outfielder Carlos Lee, Houston; outfielder Matt Holliday, Colorado; catcher Russell Martin, Los Angeles; pitcher Micah Owings, Arizona.

The specially designed Silver Slugger Award will be presented to each player by a representative of the Hillerich & Bradsby Co., makers of Louisville Slugger, the Official Bat of Major League Baseball, in a ceremony early in the 2008 season.

The trophy is three feet tall and bears the engraved name of the winner and his Silver Slugger teammates in his respective league.

The Silver Slugger Award was instituted by H&B in 1980 as a natural extension of the Silver Bat Award which is, as its name indicates, a silver-plated bat presented by Louisville Slugger to the batting champions in the AL and NL. This year's Silver Bat Award winners are Colorado's Matt Holliday and Ordonez. Holliday hit .340 to win the NL batting title.

Both will receive their Silver Bat Awards in on-field presentations early in the 2008 season.

Bob Sherwin is a contributor to MLB.com. This story was not subject to the approval of Major League Baseball or its clubs.


:clapping

[bob]

He seems a bit of a controversial choice for some, wondering how someone who only hit 6 homers and just 35 extra base hits can win the SLUGGER award, but that many hits (again!), a average over .350 (again!) and top 10 in stolen bases (..again!) all help his case as being a very good offensive player.
Go Ichiro!

[Seattle1]

He seems a bit of a controversial choice for some, wondering how someone who only hit 6 homers and just 35 extra base hits can win the SLUGGER award....

Well, one thing to bear in mind is that the Silver Slugger award process takes all offensive categories into consideration. Not just, say, home runs and slugging pct.

[Brad Harris]

Which is fine and dandy, but it shouldn't take baserunning into account. How well a player advances once he's on the bases has absolutely nothing to do with how good a hitter (or "slugger") he is.

I wish they distinguished between left, center and right field for Silver Slugger awards.

I can see the case for Ichiro. I just can't see how his stolen base exploits should comprise part of that case.

[brett]

Keep in mind that the silver slugger award was originally given to the player with the best batting average at his position, and the old standard still trickles into the voting. Also, its not the "most valuable hitter".

I'm not a big Ichiro fan (or anti Ichiro). I think he is greatly overrated as hitter, but I have seen estimates that he also picks up more bases that don't show in the stat line than just about anyone in history. I think he had over 30 one year, and 20 is typically tops in a league.

[Brad Harris]

I don't disagree that Ichiro is an historically great player or that he's fashioned a Hall of Fame career. I was merely trying to get clarification on what the Silver Slugger Awards are awarded for.

Anyone have the voting guidelines for the award?

[digglahhh]

I don't disagree that Ichiro is an historically great player or that he's fashioned a Hall of Fame career. I was merely trying to get clarification on what the Silver Slugger Awards are awarded for.

Anyone have the voting guidelines for the award?

I don't have a copy of the guidelines. As it is currently referred to, I generally look at it as the best offensive player at a given position (could be technically wrong, though).

In that case, baserunning should count, as it is part of a player's offensive package.

[brett]

On second glance, it does not appear to have ever been given outright to the player with the best BA at each position. I thought I remembered that from about '84.

Every source I can find says it is for the "best hitter" period, no mention of stolen bases.

[Seattle1]

New York Times: Suzuki Is Nearing Milestones at an Unprecedented Pace (http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/06/sports/baseball/06ichiro.html)

By BOB SHERWIN
Published: April 6, 2008

With baseball players from the famous to the fringe coming under a performance-enhancing cloud, Ichiro Suzuki is the antidrug.

Suzuki, the sinewy Seattle Mariners center fielder, would contend that his strength is generated primarily from the curry rice balls that his wife, Yumiko, makes for him before every game. Suzuki is a natural, not just a result of what he consumes but of the way he plays.

The Japanese-born Suzuki, in his eighth season in the major leagues, is on the verge of several significant achievements. He entered the season 130 hits short of 3,000 for his two-country career and could become the youngest player in history to reach that professional milestone, although it would not be an official major league record. He is also approaching the most career hits for a Japanese player, needing 216.

In addition, he is seeking 200 hits for a record eighth consecutive season, which would tie him with the turn-of-the-19th-century star Wee Willie Keeler, who did it from 1894 to 1901.

Though separated by an ocean and a century, Suzuki and Keeler are remarkably similar. From the Baltimore chop to the Seattle slap, they have a common resolve: hit ’em where they ain’t. Keeler finished his 19-year career (1892-1910) with a .3412 batting average. Suzuki, including his time in Japan, entered the season with a 16-year average of .3419.

“Both players felt like they were the catalysts,” said Tom Shieber, the senior curator at the National Baseball Hall of Fame in Cooperstown, N.Y. “Their job was to get on base.”

The two began their professional careers 100 years apart, Keeler in 1892 and Suzuki in 1992. They are considered small for their eras, Keeler was 5 feet 4 inches and 140 pounds; Suzuki is 5-11 and 172. They started as right fielders, they throw and bat from the left side and, most significant, they rely on exquisite bat control and fleet feet for success.

[More...] (http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/06/sports/baseball/06ichiro.html)

[Seattle1]

Guess what? Ichiro is now the all-time leader in stolen bases in Seattle Mariners franchise history!

:eek:

:clapping

[Brad Harris]

An amazing talent who is too often underappreciated in the modern game. I only hope he can keep it up for two more seasons, rendering any question of his Hall eligibility null and void. The voters should be able to take it from there.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

An amazing talent who is too often underappreciated in the modern game. I only hope he can keep it up for two more seasons, rendering any question of his Hall eligibility null and void. The voters should be able to take it from there.

I look forward to his HoF induction around 2018-2020. I wonder if he'll give his induction speech in English? :happy:

[Seattle1]

Well he gave this speech in English, so I bet he gives his HoF acceptance speech in English too... (http://seattle.mariners.mlb.com/media/player/mp_tpl_3_1.jsp?w_id=419534&w=2005/open/teams05/sea/video/042205_clesea_ichiro_ceremony_350.wmv&pid=mlb_tp&gid=2005/04/22/clemlb-seamlb-1&cid=mlb&fid=mlb_tp350&v=2)

[lovethegame]

His average season is 331-9-65 with 112 runs and an astounding 224 hits.
Not to mention the best arm since Colavito
ON the same pace this year, he belongs

[jalbright]

Thread merge time again.

[Cougar]

He's got a major single season record, which is a good start, 4 200-hit seasons, 2 batting titles, a SB title, 4 GG, 4 ASG, a ROY, and an MVP. There are HOF who don't have accomplishments such as these over an entire career -- Ichiro's done it in four seasons.

Hell of a start.

Despite the fact that Suzuki started his career very late, absent a major falloff in performance I think he is more likely than not to be a HOFer.

The above quote is from May 2005.

Since then, he's got three more gold gloves, three more 200 hits seasons, and three more .300+ BA (one .350!). He's led the league in hits two more times. He's stolen 30+ bases three more times. He made three more AS games, and won one AS-MVP. He's scored 100 runs every season of his career.

In 2008, he was an all-star again, he seems likely to win another GG, to bat over .300, to get over 200 hits, and to steal over 40 bases (38 to date). He's got 83 ruins scored so far...he could miss 100 runs, given how awful Seattle is this season, but he might make it too. He'll finish the season with close to 1800 hits in 8 seasons. His career BA as of today is .331 -- 30th all time.

Obviously he's uniquely qualified as a pioneer for Japanese players in the USA.

He could decline precipitously over the next two seasons he needs to become eligible, and he's still a HOFer.

[Edgartohof]

No only is Ichiro on his way to leading the league in hits for a 5th time, and getting 200+ hits in 8 CONSECUTIVE seasons (to start his MLB career mind you), but he has also never been out of the top 2 in hits!

He has been the best defensive outfielder this century, as well as one of the best baserunners in the game.

He is on pace for his 8th consecutive GG as well (and he EARNED all off them, not just by reputation).

Ichiro also owns the AL record for consecutive SB's w/out getting caught. And with his passing the 300 mark in SB's this season, puts in around 7th among active players, and looks to reach the top 100 all-time, by next season!

What about this DOESN'T say HOF?!?!

[RuthMayBond]

No only is Ichiro on his way to leading the league in hits for a 5th time, It's not in the bag by any stretch. He's led four times.
Frank McCormick led at least 3x, Ginger Beaumont & Ross Barnes led at least 4x, Tony Oliva at least 5x

[G.Costanza]

It's not in the bag by any stretch. He's led four times.
Frank McCormick led at least 3x, Ginger Beaumont & Ross Barnes led at least 4x, Tony Oliva at least 5x

I agree it was overly optimistic to assume at this point Suzuki will lead in hits, but I am perplexed as to what was your point was mentioning those other players?:confused::confused::confused::noidea

[RuthMayBond]

I agree it was overly optimistic to assume at this point Suzuki will lead in hits, but I am perplexed as to what was your point was mentioning those other players?:confused::confused::confused::noideaUm, they have led the league in hits mostly a comparable number of times and are not in the Hall :confused:

[G.Costanza]

Um, they have led the league in hits mostly a comparable number of times and are not in the Hall :confused:

So this was to suggest they are comparable players to Suzuki? Thats simply beyond obsurd, by taking a statistic all out of context in the most extreme fashion. So becuase of that, no matter how they did it or in how many number of seasons you view it as a similar achievement? Let alone era and all around game?:noidea

[RuthMayBond]

So this was to suggest they are comparable players to Suzuki?Nope, just giving you the part that does not sugggest Hall

<Thats simply beyond obsurd, by taking a statistic all out of context in the most extreme fashion. So becuase of that, no matter how they did it or in how many number of seasons you view it as a similar achievement?>

You didn't mention that (originally). This has also been a very short century so far, and I'm not convinced Ichiro's earned all his Gold Gloves. You're also forgetting a few things too. How about if I disregard one year of his career, just for discussion purposes, that shouldn't hurt?

[G.Costanza]

Nope, just giving you the part that does not sugggest Hall

<Thats simply beyond obsurd, by taking a statistic all out of context in the most extreme fashion. So becuase of that, no matter how they did it or in how many number of seasons you view it as a similar achievement? Let alone era and all around game?:noidea>

You didn't mention that (originally). This has also been a very short century so far, and I'm not convinced Ichiro's earned all his Gold Gloves. You're also forgetting a few things too

Yeah I didn't mention it originally becuase I didn't wan't to jump to any conclusions and wanted to be open to your point first. A very short century?:banghead: Ichiro in his first season had more hits than anyone since the 1930's! And broke the all time mark from 1920 in only his fourth season in mlb, and led the league in intentional walks that year to boot. What does that have to do with adjusting players numbers against there era and comparable contemperaries?:hp................................ .................................................. .................................................. .................................................. .................................................. .................................................. .........I'm not sure what you mean by your not convinced he didn't earn all his gold gloves. So that is an admission that if he did then he IS a HOFamer and if he didn't he is not? Becuase what else would be the point in disputing that? As a matter of fact imagine how many more gold gloves he would have counting his years in japan.

[Seels]

No only is Ichiro on his way to leading the league in hits for a 5th time, and getting 200+ hits in 8 CONSECUTIVE seasons (to start his MLB career mind you), but he has also never been out of the top 2 in hits!

He has been the best defensive outfielder this century, as well as one of the best baserunners in the game.

He is on pace for his 8th consecutive GG as well (and he EARNED all off them, not just by reputation).

Ichiro also owns the AL record for consecutive SB's w/out getting caught. And with his passing the 300 mark in SB's this season, puts in around 7th among active players, and looks to reach the top 100 all-time, by next season!

What about this DOESN'T say HOF?!?!

That's debateable. Granderson and Crisp had better defensive seasons than any of the winners last year.

[RuthMayBond]

led the league in intentional walks that year to boot.That happens when the rest of your team is poor, it's not like they were afraid he was gonna hit a 500 foot bomb on them

<.................................................. .................................................. .................................................. .................................................. .................................................. .........................................>

Your keyboard is stuck

<I'm not sure what you mean by your not convinced he didn't earn all his gold gloves. So that is an admission that if he did then he IS a HOFamer and if he didn't he is not? Becuase what else would be the point in disputing that?>

Wow, amazing leap in "logic". But we can stick by your original "point" and if there's one he didn't earn he isn't a HOFer? (Don't forget my other point about let's throw one year out of his career and discuss some things).

[gman5431]

Right or not, i think some, if not a lot, of the voters will look or at least think about his time in Japan too. You have seen that happen already as he hit a milestone this year when taking his hits in Japan into consideration. I think the general consensus on Ichiro is that he is a great hitter - the best since T Gwynn retired and with a couple more solid years he is a shoe in for the hall of fame.

G Man

[G.Costanza]

That happens when the rest of your team is poor, it's not like they were afraid he was gonna hit a 500 foot bomb on them

<.................................................. .................................................. .................................................. .................................................. .................................................. .........................................>

Your keyboard is stuck

<I'm not sure what you mean by your not convinced he didn't earn all his gold gloves. So that is an admission that if he did then he IS a HOFamer and if he didn't he is not? Becuase what else would be the point in disputing that?>

Wow, amazing leap in "logic". But we can stick by your original "point" and if there's one he didn't earn he isn't a HOFer? (Don't forget my other point about let's throw one year out of his career and discuss some things).

So your only response to our original debate is that him leading the league in ibb while breaking an 84 year old hit record where in that decade the record was missed by a couple of hits 2 and 3 more times is that the rest of his team was poor, so you discredit him totally? Thats just weak. Then Why did he lead the league on a 116 win team hitting 460. something with runners in scorring position?(not homers "oh no, he stinks") in 2001. So why doesn't every player lead the league in IBB on a bad team????:noidea................................... .................................................. .................................................. .................................................. .................................................. .................................................. .............Your only other "point is to critique my typing style? As opposed to adressing how many gold gloves he would have by now counting the ones he "earned in Japan"? But maybe those managers who saw him play on the field were just being nice to voting for him, and he didn't deserve those awards either? Thats the only way you can debate Ichiro, not by debating he isn't a HOFamer by what he IS, but by debating what he IS.

[RuthMayBond]

So your only response to our original debate is that him leading the league in ibb while breaking an 84 year old hit record where in that decade the record was missed by a couple of hits 2 and 3 more times is that the rest of his team was poor, so you discredit him totally? Thats just weak.No, putting words in my mouth is

<As opposed to adressing how many gold gloves he would have by now counting the ones he "earned in Japan"?>

I don't know how many he got in Japan, but I don't think he earned all of his ones here

<Thats the only way you can debate Ichiro, not by debating he isn't a HOFamer by what he IS, but by debating what he IS.>

This makes no sense. You're still avoiding my other point. Let's set aside one year of his career, namely 2004. With his fantastic batting average, he has still only been in the top 10 in his league in
On base % 2x
Runs Created 2x
Total bases 1x
Adjusted Batting Runs none
Batting Wins none
Offensive Winning Percent none

He is constantly in the top 10 in making the most outs in a year. Even WITH 2004 his OPS+ is 117 and falling, not exactly stellar for what has mostly been a corner outfielder. Setting aside 2004 he's almost certainly below 115, AND FALLING. If he's the best defensive OF this long century, why is he mostly playing in the corner? Shall we go over the Gold Gloves?
I'm just saying there is more than one side to things

[G.Costanza]

No, putting words in my mouth is

<As opposed to adressing how many gold gloves he would have by now counting the ones he "earned in Japan"?>

I don't know how many he got in Japan, but I don't think he earned all of his ones here

<Thats the only way you can debate Ichiro, not by debating he isn't a HOFamer by what he IS, but by debating what he IS.>

This makes no sense. You're still avoiding my other point. Let's set aside one year of his career, namely 2004. With his fantastic batting average, he has still only been in the top 10 in his league in
On base % 2x
Runs Created 2x
Total bases 1x
Adjusted Batting Runs none
Batting Wins none
Offensive Winning Percent none

He is constantly in the top 10 in making the most outs in a year. Even WITH 2004 his OPS+ is 117 and falling, not exactly stellar for what has mostly been a corner outfielder. Setting aside 2004 he's almost certainly below 115, AND FALLING. If he's the best defensive OF this long century, why is he mostly playing in the corner? Shall we go over the Gold Gloves?
I'm just saying there is more than one side to things

Now your getting into semantics, I never put any words in your mouth, you said why that wasn't my original point, which it was, but I GAVE YOU the benefit of waiting for you to confirm it, then I said I assumed about a later point of yours............................................. .................................................. .................................................. .................................................. ...Uhhh you already said you don't "think" he earned all of his gold gloves here(thats your argument of why he is not deserving of the HOF). Let alone the fact he did deserve them!. You missed my point. You totally disecredit how many gold gloves he earned in his time in Japan.(NOT only that, you don't know how many). The point was he would have more than the 8 you are trying to say he didn't "earn" had he not been born in that country and born here, guaranteeing he would easily have the number of 8 which is your difference that he is a HOFamer or not(just silly BTW). After all, the hitting and pitching maybe different there, but one thing is for certain fielding is not. .................................................. .................................................. .................................................. .................................................. .................................................. .................................................. ..........That's hilarious to say I'm still avoiding your point, and the following sentence is to say "Let's set aside one year of his career" So with that sentence alone you are conceding that he is a HOFamer! Unless you somehow want to for no comprehendible reason take away a season! How could I expect you to be objective on an opinion like fielding when you want to take away a entire factual hitting season from the man for no other reason than it helps your argument?......................................... .................................................. .................................................. .................................................. ........What I said makes perfect sense......You cannot debate Ichiro not being a HOFamer on what he is, you can only debate WHAT HE IS................................................ .................................................. .................................................. .................................................. ........ Your other point on why Suzuki is not a HoFamer is that he is in the top ten in outs every year? Thats one way to take the worst statistic possible on a unique HOFame player. Obviously we all know he doesn't walk and is always in the top of at bats every year being a lead off hitter. What does that have to do with him not being a slam dunk HOFamer after 10 years? Thats like bringing up Reggie Jackson's strikeouts........................................ .................................................. .................................................. .................................................. .................................................. .................................................. .............And then you say " If he's the best defensive Of this long century(whats the obsession with emphasising the "long century" bit as if to diminish his worth?) why is he playing mostly the corner"?????? It seems you are the only one putting words in other peoples mouths( anybody reading back over this debate would cleary see that, including you if you were honest with yourself). When did I ever say anything remotely close to that, and he plays the corner not becuase he can't play center(as he has proven, see catch on Jason Varitek this year and gold glove) but becuase he has a cannon arm.......why did Clemente play RF, he must have been way worse than Jimmy edmonds. Cause Edmonds mands center.:noidea.................................... .................................................. .................................................. .................................................. .................................................. .................................................. ......... The only thing I expect you to do is not respond to anything I said and throw his OPS at me, I'd appreciate if you could take the time to respond to each point like I did yours.

[RuthMayBond]

Now your getting into semantics, I never put any words in your mouth,Ri-i-i-i-ight

<Uhhh you already said you don't "think" he earned all of his gold gloves here(thats your argument of why he is not deserving of the HOF).>

Didn't take ya long to put words in my mouth AGAIN, did it?

<Let alone the fact he did deserve them!>

Do you want to discuss that?

<You totally disecredit how many gold gloves he earned in his time in Japan.>

No, I don't

<(NOT only that, you don't know how many).>

I haven't exactly heard your answer

<guaranteeing he would easily have the number of 8 which is your difference that he is a HOFamer or not>

Can't give up, can ya?

<After all, the hitting and pitching maybe different there, but one thing is for certain fielding is not.>

Wrong again

<That's hilarious to say I'm still avoiding your point, and the following sentence is to say "Let's set aside one year of his career" So with that sentence alone you are conceding that he is a HOFamer!>

You have truly jumped the shark

<What I said makes perfect sense......You cannot debate Ichiro not being a HOFamer on what he is, you can only debate WHAT HE IS>

Whatever

<Thats like bringing up Reggie Jackson's strikeouts>

Strikeouts are only ONE type of outs

<And then you say " If he's the best defensive Of this long century(whats the obsession with emphasising the "long century" bit as if to diminish his worth?)>

The same obsession with your emphasizing it

<why did Clemente play RF, he must have been way worse than Jimmy edmonds. Cause Edmonds mands center.>

Thanks for another non sequitur

<The only thing I expect you to do is not respond to anything I said and throw his OPS at me, I'd appreciate if you could take the time to respond to each point like I did yours.>

What did I allegedly miss? (not that you would discuss it rationally)

[G.Costanza]

Ri-i-i-i-ight

<Uhhh you already said you don't "think" he earned all of his gold gloves here(thats your argument of why he is not deserving of the HOF).>

Didn't take ya long to put words in my mouth AGAIN, did it?

<Let alone the fact he did deserve them!>

Do you want to discuss that?

<You totally disecredit how many gold gloves he earned in his time in Japan.>

No, I don't

<(NOT only that, you don't know how many).>

I haven't exactly heard your answer

<guaranteeing he would easily have the number of 8 which is your difference that he is a HOFamer or not>

Can't give up, can ya?

<After all, the hitting and pitching maybe different there, but one thing is for certain fielding is not.>

Wrong again

<That's hilarious to say I'm still avoiding your point, and the following sentence is to say "Let's set aside one year of his career" So with that sentence alone you are conceding that he is a HOFamer!>

You have truly jumped the shark

<What I said makes perfect sense......You cannot debate Ichiro not being a HOFamer on what he is, you can only debate WHAT HE IS>

Whatever

<Thats like bringing up Reggie Jackson's strikeouts>

Strikeouts are only ONE type of outs

<And then you say " If he's the best defensive Of this long century(whats the obsession with emphasising the "long century" bit as if to diminish his worth?)>

The same obsession with your emphasing it

<why did Clemente play RF, he must have been way worse than Jimmy edmonds. Cause Edmonds mands center.>

Thanks for another non sequitur

<The only thing I expect you to do is not respond to anything I said and throw his OPS at me, I'd appreciate if you could take the time to respond to each point like I did yours.>

What did I allegedly miss? (not that you would discuss it rationally)

You now have proved your not worth the time honestly debating. You took two seconds too respond to everyting sarcastically making no real points as a response but snide remarks. I guess Ichiro isn't a HOFamer now.

[RuthMayBond]

You now have proved your not worth the time honestly debating.You'd have to actually try that first

<You took two seconds too respond to everyting sarcastically making no real points as a response but snide remarks.>

And that is different from you how?

<I guess Ichiro isn't a HOFamer now.>

Your words, not mine

[Captain Cold Nose]

Guys, it seems to me one reason for the confusion is you're really arguing two different things.

Costanza, all RMB was saying is leading the league in hits x amount of times is no guarantee of making the HOF, based on other multiple hits leaders. And, despite the GG Ichiro has won, that doesn't necessarily mean Ichiro is the best defensive outfielder in baseball. GG are not exactly an accurate gauge, as has been shown with Raffy Palmeiro taking the award one year and Derek Jeter taking it the last three. What happened in Japan is only as good as the information the voters have about his tenure in Japan. If they even bother looking at it, which many very likely won't. (My assertion, I have no idea what RMB's take on that is.)

He's not saying he's not a HOF'er. Just that certain affirmations are not necessarily true in accordance with his making the HOF.

[RuthMayBond]

Guys, it seems to me one reason for the confusion is you're really arguing two different things.

Costanza, all RMB was saying is leading the league in hits x amount of times is no guarantee of making the HOF, based on other multiple hits leaders. And, despite the GG Ichiro has won, that doesn't necessarily mean Ichiro is the best defensive outfielder in baseball. GG are not exactly an accurate gauge, as has been shown with Raffy Palmeiro taking the award one year and Derek Jeter taking it the last three. What happened in Japan is only as good as the information the voters have about his tenure in Japan. If they even bother looking at it, which many very likely won't. (My assertion, I have no idea what RMB's take on that is.)

He's not saying he's not a HOF'er. Just that certain affirmations are not necessarily true in accordance with his making the HOF.Thanks CCN. But I'm also not neccesarily saying that Ichiro *is* a slam-dunk HOFer. As I said, a 117 OPS+ (and dropping) from a mostly corner OF is hardly tops. He never had more than a 130 OPS+. Contrast with Fred Lynn (George Gore, Wally Berger...), who has a CAREER 130 or more OPS+ (AS A CF) and isn't in the hall

[lovethegame]

the guy is a hitting machine with a cannon arm, why all the debate?

[BlueBlood]

No massive peak via OPS or Win Shares. His OPS+ will continue to drop and he could have the lowest of any Hall of Fame outfielder not named Lloyd Waner. The guy hits a ton of singles but he hardly draws any walks and has a none too great slugging percentage. Yes, he's hitting .310 this year but according to OPS+ he's only 3% better than a league average hitter. Considering he's an outfielder, he could arguably be a below average hitter at the position. On the plus side, he does have a fabulous arm and fielding range which help boost his value a lot more.

I say "yes" simply because his ability to compile hits is amazing, he didn't start playing here until age 27 (missed years when he was more of a slugger), and he's probably played the most pivotal role (either him or Hideo Nomo) in making MLB a truly worldwide sport.

[philkid3]

the guy is a hitting machine with a cannon arm, why all the debate?

Because those are largely empty statements that could be applied to a ton of players? There's been a great debate, why don't you read it and they'll you'll understand why there's a debate.

[Seattle1]

I wish when this poll was started it was one of those polls where it shows who voted for which option. Not that I would begrudge anyone of their opinion, it would just be interesting to see now that so many votes have been compiled.


:twocents:

[Paul Wendt]

No massive peak via OPS or Win Shares. His OPS+ will continue to drop and he could have the lowest of any Hall of Fame outfielder not named Lloyd Waner.
Who is next to Waner?
Ned Hanlon 101, Tommy McCarthy 102, Max Carey 107, Lou Brock 109, Richie Ashburn, 111, Sam Rice 112, Harry Hooper 114, Casey Stengel 119.
So we know that Ichiro will retire between Hanlon and Stengel. I bet closer to Stengel. :)

Ichiro will not drop like a stone, only 2 points with every full season at Waner's career OPS+ = 99, and he doesn't yet have one season at that level. Four of his 740pa seasons at OPS+ 105 will leave his career rate at 113 and he probably won't be playing 740pa. (On the other hand, with rounding error, he might also drop to 113 with four 600pa seasons at 105.)

Waner never hit Ichiro's now career rate 117!

[STLCards2]

Who is next to Waner?
Ned Hanlon 101, Tommy McCarthy 102, Max Carey 107, Lou Brock 109, Richie Ashburn, 111, Sam Rice 112, Harry Hooper 114, Casey Stengel 119.
So we know that Ichiro will retire between Hanlon and Stengel. I bet closer to Stengel. :)

Ichiro will not drop like a stone, only 2 points with every full season at Waner's career OPS+ = 99, and he doesn't yet have one season at that level. Four of his 740pa seasons at OPS+ 105 will leave his career rate at 113 and he probably won't be playing 740pa. (On the other hand, with rounding error, he might also drop to 113 with four 600pa seasons at 105.)

Waner never hit Ichiro's now career rate 117!

Ichiro's OPS+ will be similar to Brock's career average. He wasn't the basestealer Brock was, but some of that is era related - slight advantage Brock. Ichiro is a vastly superio defensive player, so as a season-to-season guy, I would say Ichiro is better. Of course the difference is: Brock played a long time in MLB, and Ichiro will get maybe 12 years in. Advantage Brock. Both were big stars, and I would give Ichiro a little credit for that (the aformentioned peaking international interest. We can't be totaly dogmatic about using stats only, in my opionion) Brock has the gaudy postseason numbers, which Ichiro doesn't have. They both look pretty close, of you ask me.

I guess it comes down to how much credit you give Ichiro for his play in Japan. If you give him no credit, I could see making a good case that he isn't quite Hall Worthy. If you give him a lot of Japanese credit, I could see him being a solid HOF guy. If (like me) you can't completely ignore his time in Japan, but don't want to glorify the inferior league too much, I would say he is a bordelrine "in" guy, just like Brock.

[Seattle1]

My rough reasonable prediction for some of Ichiro's career MLB numbers upon retirement:

3,200 hits
320 doubles
105 triples
110 homeruns
510 stolen bases

And, a new MLB record of 9 200+ hit seasons in a row (maybe even 10!).

:twocents:

[ol' aches and pains]

You know what-screw the statistics, the OPS and the win shares, whatever they are. Ichiro plays the game the way it should be played. Though I'm a Chicagoan and lifelong White Sox fan, my favorite player is Ichiro (although Carlos Quentin is growing on me). It's a pleasure and a privelige to watch him play.

I was present at a game in Chicago on Labor Day Weekend in 2004, when Ichiro was setting the record for hits in a season. That day he went 5-for-5 off Mark Buehrle, 5 singles to all parts of the field, not one of them would have blacked your eye if it hit you in the face. As he stood on first base after the 5th hit, he received a standing ovation from the White Sox fans, including yours truly. Ichiro smiled shyly and tipped his cap to the crowd, at which point Buehrle stepped off the mound and tipped his cap to Ichiro! I turned to my wife and said "you've seen greatness today".

In my mind, and I hope in the minds of the voters, he's a Hall-of-Famer the minute he has his 10 years in. I can't believe anybody is still debating this.

[Westlake]

I say screw the nostalgia, heart, smiles, and playing the game the 'right' away -- how many Win Shares does he have and why aren't they the only thing to determine HOFers?

[Honus Wagner Rules]

My rough reasonable prediction for some of Ichiro's career MLB numbers upon retirement:

3,200 hits
320 doubles
105 triples
110 homeruns
510 stolen bases

And, a new MLB record of 9 200+ hit seasons in a row (maybe even 10!).

:twocents:

I don't see how Ichiro gets 1400+ hits between now and retirement? :shrug: Do you not expect him to have any decline phase at all?

[STLCards2]

I don't see how Ichiro gets 1400+ hits between now and retirement? :shrug: Do you not expect him to have any decline phase at all?

No decline and no injuries? Very unlikely. 3,000 hits is possible if everything falls right. Ichiro can't slow down too much, or he will lose many infield hits per season.

[ol' aches and pains]

I say screw the nostalgia, heart, smiles, and playing the game the 'right' away -- how many Win Shares does he have and why aren't they the only thing to determine HOFers?

"Screw playing the game the right way"? Do you think the average baseball fan knows or cares what a Win Share is? I know the HOF voters rely mainly on statistics, I was just making a plea on behalf of a great, throwback ballplayer, the anti-Manny/Barry/Sammy if you will. I think you can make a pretty good case for Ichiro based on his numbers, too.

[Seattle1]

I don't see how Ichiro gets 1400+ hits between now and retirement? :shrug: Do you not expect him to have any decline phase at all?

Well, for example say he plays eight more years after this year (I'm thinking he can play seven or eight more). 1,400 hits over that time frame would be a clip of 175 hits per year, which is a lot lower than his current average of 220+ hits per year, so that would be a significant decline.

It's all reading of the tea leaves at this point anyway, but I do think he could potentially reach those numbers I listed before all is said and done, judging by the way he keeps in shape and the consistency of his play, etc.

:twocents:

[SamtheBravesFan]

"Screw playing the game the right way"? Do you think the average baseball fan knows or cares what a Win Share is? I know the HOF voters rely mainly on statistics, I was just making a plea on behalf of a great, throwback ballplayer, the anti-Manny/Barry/Sammy if you will. I think you can make a pretty good case for Ichiro based on his numbers, too.

The average baseball fan also doesn't realize or care that basic stats like wins and losses and ERA aren't a good way to determine the worh of a pitcher, for instance.

Calling Ichiro a "throwback" player implies that he's playing like players in the deadball 1910s and 1920s. That's an insult, because if he's a deadball hitter in today's offensive enviroment, that makes him look worse.

If you truly think that the way baseball should be played is rooted in the deadball era, then I don't know what to say.

[Westlake]

"Screw playing the game the right way"? Do you think the average baseball fan knows or cares what a Win Share is? I know the HOF voters rely mainly on statistics, I was just making a plea on behalf of a great, throwback ballplayer, the anti-Manny/Barry/Sammy if you will. I think you can make a pretty good case for Ichiro based on his numbers, too.

Your joke detector is broken. I think Ichiro should be in the HOF -- because of his numbers and the way he plays -- obviously bringing more to the table than your usual AVG/OBP/SLG line shows you. I also definitely count what he did in Japan.

The average baseball fan doesn't vote players into the HOF, the writers do. Then again, a lot of them are pretty dense as well.

[STLCards2]

"Screw playing the game the right way"? Do you think the average baseball fan knows or cares what a Win Share is? I know the HOF voters rely mainly on statistics, I was just making a plea on behalf of a great, throwback ballplayer, the anti-Manny/Barry/Sammy if you will. I think you can make a pretty good case for Ichiro based on his numbers, too.


As I mentioned earlier, I agree that we should not be dogmatic about stats only, and I don't mind guys like Brock, King Kelly, and others using their fame and/or postseason success to get into Coopersotwn.

However, "playing the game the right way" shouldn't determine HOF credibility either. Rex Hudler played the game "the right way", but clearly sucked at it anyway. Same for Joe McCewing and others. Even little David Eckstien plays the game "the right way" and is a solid player, but falls way short of the HOF. It is still neccessary to have some objective evidence or data to look at along the way.

Plus, not everybody agrees on the term "plays the right way." To some, it may mean a guy who hustles every play, even if he is no good. We call those guys "scrappy." To many people "plying the game the right way" is producing the most victories for your team - whether if that is by doing nothing but DHing and hitting billions of homeruns and getting billions of walks, or doing it in the 4-5 tool way.

The fact remains the same, if we are looking at how much a player produces - not how they produce, Ichiro falls into a pretty gray area as far as Hall voting. Very good average, but almost all singles. Again, singles are great, but compare Ichiro's .332 average with Albert's .334 average, massive difference in production. back to Ishiro- good, but hardly great OB%. Ichiro has a good eye, why doesn't he walk more? Also, great speed and defense. big plus in his favor. Very short career in comparison to most other HOFers. Again, if your personal belief is that time in Japan should be honored, it is hard to argue against Ichiro.

Would I put him in? Sure, why not. Is he better than many sabermetric people think? Yes. Is he as good as many of the Ichiro fanboys think? No.

Seattle1 - You have to allow people to analyse your favorite player(s) without getting so defensive. We have all had our fave's bashed sometimes around here. You act like somebody is verbally insulting your mother or something anytime somebody sais Ichiro has some minor flaws in his game.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Well, for example say he plays eight more years after this year (I'm thinking he can play seven or eight more). 1,400 hits over that time frame would be a clip of 175 hits per year, which is a lot lower than his current average of 220+ hits per year, so that would be a significant decline.

It's all reading of the tea leaves at this point anyway, but I do think he could potentially reach those numbers I listed before all is said and done, judging by the way he keeps in shape and the consistency of his play, etc.

:twocents:

I suppose it's possible. I checked it at out and three ballplayers have gotten 1,400+ hits from age 35 on. Here is the top 10 all time for hit from age 35 to retirement. However, Rose used his position as Reds manager to extend his career, Anson was a 19th century player, and Rice a Dead Ball player.


Rank Player H PA
1. Pete Rose 1709 6634
2. Cap Anson 1638 5925
3. Sam Rice 1574 5345
4. Honus Wagner 1288 4866
5. Paul Molitor 1233 4422
6. Jim O'Rourke 1152 4093
Carl Yastrzemski 1152 4876
8. Ty Cobb 1136 3715
9. Craig Biggio 1091 4602
10. Carlton Fisk 1043 4570

[jalbright]

I say screw the nostalgia, heart, smiles, and playing the game the 'right' away -- how many Win Shares does he have and why aren't they the only thing to determine HOFers?

Because Win Shares, good as they are, don't tell everything and aren't perfect. Do win shares tell us about Joe Jackson's taking dirty money or Pete Rose's gambling or Barry Bonds' or Roger Clemens' issues related to PEDs? Of course not. Do they tell us about the guys who missed time due to military service or the color line or MLB's business decision not to pursue Japanese players before Nomo? Again, no.

P.S. I see you were joking, Westlake, but I'll leave this as a reminder to those who only want to consider the numbers.

[ol' aches and pains]

The average baseball fan also doesn't realize or care that basic stats like wins and losses and ERA aren't a good way to determine the worh of a pitcher, for instance.

Calling Ichiro a "throwback" player implies that he's playing like players in the deadball 1910s and 1920s. That's an insult, because if he's a deadball hitter in today's offensive enviroment, that makes him look worse.

If you truly think that the way baseball should be played is rooted in the deadball era, then I don't know what to say.

Perhaps "throwback" was a poor word choice. What I meant was that Ichiro plays the game with class, without showing up the other team, failing to hustle, and a multitude of other sins as exemplified by the other players I alluded to.

[ol' aches and pains]

As I mentioned earlier, I agree that we should not be dogmatic about stats only, and I don't mind guys like Brock, King Kelly, and others using their fame and/or postseason success to get into Coopersotwn.

However, "playing the game the right way" shouldn't determine HOF credibility either. Rex Hudler played the game "the right way", but clearly sucked at it anyway. Same for Joe McCewing and others. Even little David Eckstien plays the game "the right way" and is a solid player, but falls way short of the HOF. It is still neccessary to have some objective evidence or data to look at along the way.

Rex Hudler? David Eckstein? As I said in my post above, which you quoted, I think you can make a pretty good case for Ichiro based on his numbers, too.

I wouldn't know a win share if it bit me in the ass, and I'm not keen to learn, but I think I know a Hall-of Famer when I see one. After reading through some of this thread, I felt the need to add something from the perspective of a fan, as opposed to a mathematician.

[Captain Cold Nose]

Rex Hudler? David Eckstein? As I said in my post above, which you quoted, I think you can make a pretty good case for Ichiro based on his numbers, too.

I wouldn't know a win share if it bit me in the ass, and I'm not keen to learn, but I think I know a Hall-of Famer when I see one. After reading through some of this thread, I felt the need to add something from the perspective of a fan, as opposed to a mathematician.

So you don't think "mathematicians" are fans?

There are so many ways to interpret things. No single way is the correct way, nor should any way be singularly dismissed because it involves methods one personally doesn't use. The best analysts analyze using a variety of methods.

[ol' aches and pains]

So you don't think "mathematicians" are fans?

There are so many ways to interpret things. No single way is the correct way, nor should any way be singularly dismissed because it involves methods one personally doesn't use. The best analysts analyze using a variety of methods.

I didn't say mathematicians weren't fans, I just thought some of the posts here were only concerned with numbers, and wanted to add a different slant.

I believe I mentioned that you could make the case for Ichiro based on his numbers, too, I guess you missed that.

[STLCards2]

Most people who go into sabermetrics do so, because they care very much as a fan, and want to have empiracle proof of what is actuialy taking place on the field. Do you think people that aren't real "fans" would spen hours and hours researchin a sport they don't truly love and appreciate?

[Rennie Stennett]

No decline and no injuries? Very unlikely. 3,000 hits is possible if everything falls right. Ichiro can't slow down too much, or he will lose many infield hits per season.

He is losing infield hits now. Much of 2008 he could not get the ball out of the infield. When this happens, the whole infield cheats in. What used to be a infield hit is now a 6-3 ground out. Until he shows he can drive the ball, this will continue. He often swings on the first pitch. Pitchers know that he will get himself out, so why should they throw a strike ?

check out the following link that shows his Safeco Field Hit Chart. Look at all those infield outs. The outfield hits are interesting as well.

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/playerHitChart?categoryId=85348

[Captain Cold Nose]

I didn't say mathematicians weren't fans, I just thought some of the posts here were only concerned with numbers, and wanted to add a different slant.

I believe I mentioned that you could make the case for Ichiro based on his numbers, too, I guess you missed that.

I didn't miss that at all. But when you say things like "screw the statistics" you're going to be seen as dismissive of deeper analysis. Deeper analysis is not a bad thing. One way of looking at it is the fans who do use numbers actually are interested in seeing if what "they see in front of them" is actually true.

[Seattle1]

I suppose it's possible. I checked it at out and three ballplayers have gotten 1,400+ hits from age 35 on. Here is the top 10 all time for hit from age 35 to retirement. However, Rose used his position as Reds manager to extend his career, Anson was a 19th century player, and Rice a Dead Ball player.


Rank Player H PA
1. Pete Rose 1709 6634
2. Cap Anson 1638 5925
3. Sam Rice 1574 5345
4. Honus Wagner 1288 4866
5. Paul Molitor 1233 4422
6. Jim O'Rourke 1152 4093
Carl Yastrzemski 1152 4876
8. Ty Cobb 1136 3715
9. Craig Biggio 1091 4602
10. Carlton Fisk 1043 4570

Thanks, that is a helpful comparison.