World Series: Phillies and Rays

[spark240]

Your prediction?

[KevinWI]

On paper, Philadelphia has the edge in power and pitching, however, St. Petersburg has the momentum and seemingly are the 'team of destiny' at this point.

[STLCards2]

I will always take the team with superior pitching - especialy at home. Rays in 5.

The Rays are far better than the Brewers and Dodgers - they might get shell-shocked in the first couple of games. Once the Rays get up in the series, it will be short work.

However, if Hamels can throw lights out in 2 starts, then the Phils have a chance.

[spark240]

I don't believe in momentum, but I do believe in destiny. And I especially believe in hard-fought series.

I did call Rays in 7 for the ALCS, and I think I said Phillies in 6 for the NLCS, so I'm doing pretty good. I'll go with Rays in 7 again.

Man, the Red Sox have played some classic series, haven't they? ALCS in '03, '04, '07 and '08 all pretty great. :cap:

[MagsMigs]

Gotta echo STLCards. Hamels may be the best hurler in the Series, but Kaz, Shields, Garza and Sonny are 2-5.

Buuuuut... the Tigers seemingly had the edge in pitching heading in to the '06 Series. Not to mention the Cubs and Angels were everyone's favorites this year due to pitching above anything else. The Sawx were supposed to be invincible with Beckett, Lester & Dice-K, and CC/Sheets were supposed to make their LDS at least a Series.

My heart says Rays in 6. If putting money on it, my head is telling me Phils in 7 for some reason. I just see shades of 2006 in this series (except that the Cards went 7 in their LCS while the Tigers' rest ultimately doomed them). Experience has beaten the unexperienced in the last 4 WS's. But then again, look at the Marlins. Ah screw it...

RAYS IN SIX!

[STLCards2]

Gotta echo STLCards. Hamels may be the best hurler in the Series, but Kaz, Shields, Garza and Sonny are 2-5.

Buuuuut... the Tigers seemingly had the edge in pitching heading in to the '06 Series. Not to mention the Cubs and Angels were everyone's favorites this year due to pitching above anything else. The Sawx were supposed to be invincible with Beckett, Lester & Dice-K, and CC/Sheets were supposed to make their LDS at least a Series.

My heart says Rays in 6. If putting money on it, my head is telling me Phils in 7 for some reason. I just see shades of 2006 in this series (except that the Cards went 7 in their LCS while the Tigers' rest ultimately doomed them). Experience has beaten the unexperienced in the last 4 WS's. But then again, look at the Marlins. Ah screw it...

RAYS IN SIX!


Yeah, Phily can win - they have a great team. Talent wise, probably the best NL representative since the 2004 Cardinals team. And no, pitching does not always win. but it does more often than not. I really think long layoffs hurt teams too. On a neutral field with no layoffs, I would call it about a draw.

[philkid3]

Rays in 5.

[philkid3]

On paper, Philadelphia has the edge in power and pitching, however, St. Petersburg has the momentum and seemingly are the 'team of destiny' at this point.
:confused:

(Against AL Hitters)
Shields: 3.92 FIP, 215 IP
Sonnanstine: 3.98 FIP, 193.3 IP
Garza: 4.20 FIP, 184.7 IP
Kazmir: 4.43 FIP, 152.3 IP
Team ERA+: 114

(Against NL Hitters)
Hamels: 3.70 FIP, 227.3 IP
Moyer: 4.33 FIP, 196.3 IP
Myers: 4.50 FIP, 190.0 IP
Blanton: 5.10 FIP, 70.7 IP
Team ERA+: 115


I think the Phillies have a pretty poor argument as far as the pitching edge once all things are considered.

I would definitely say Hamels is the best pitcher in the series, though. And though I wouldn't be surprised if it ends up being Price, in the season Lidge was the best reliever.

[spark240]

Hey. Somebody screwed with the poll. I had it in outcome-order, where each choice was one game different than the preceding, and you could look at the votes as a bar graph. Now it's flipped around so "Phillies in 7" is followed by "Rays in 4." The two seven-game outcomes were meant to be in the middle because they're the closest.

[mrakbaseball]

Rays in 6. The Phillies will have a week off before Game 1. Having that much off time hurt the Tigers and Rockies, but the Rays are the better team from the superior league anyway.:highfive:

[philkid3]

I would prefer an exciting series, though. It's been way too long.

[Zagi-CRO]

Also, Rays in 6... why?

Rotation - according to my counting the Rays have better starters
55:45 for the Rays
Lineup - Phillies has an edge 57:43 for the Phillies
Bullpen - the Rays advantage 52:48 for the Rays

[brewcrew82]

Hey. Somebody screwed with the poll. I had it in outcome-order, where each choice was one game different than the preceding, and you could look at the votes as a bar graph. Now it's flipped around so "Phillies in 7" is followed by "Rays in 4." The two seven-game outcomes were meant to be in the middle because they're the closest.

When submitting the poll the choices they went into alphabetical order rather than the order in which you listed them.

[brewcrew82]

I would prefer an exciting series, though. It's been way too long.

Agreed, it'd be good to have a close, hard fought 7-game series. I'm more hoping for a good series and to be entertained for seven games than really caring about who actually wins.

Though if you held a gun to my head and forced me to pick, I'd probably go with the Phils.

[philkid3]

Agreed, it'd be good to have a close, hard fought 7-game series. I'm more hoping for a good series and to be entertained for seven games than really caring about who actually wins.

Though if you held a gun to my head and forced me to pick, I'd probably go with the Phils.

Oh, I'm definitely pulling for the Rays, and think they will win rather easily. But if the Phillies win in 7 awesome games and 2001 is blown away, I'll be happy.

[Imgran]

Not even gonna try to call this one, other than to say Tampa's probably got an edge because they're playing great baseball, they're healthy, and they didn't have a long layoff so they're fresh

[gman5431]

Gonna be a great series. Rays may have the advantage in pitching, but Hamels has looked like a god and Myers has been clutch as well. If those guys start 5 games... who knows. I picked Rays in 7. I want them to win and i do think they have the mojo and are going to do it. This is the most exciting series in years for me. I know Bud hates it though.

G Man

[KCGHOST]

I like the Phils in six. When I look at the Rays I see the 2006 Tigers. And very inexperienced teams some times have trouble the Big Stage. With Cole Hamels, a powerful lineup, and a better bullpen I give the Phils the edge.

[babaganoosh]

I actually think the Rays in 6, but voted for Rays in 7 just to make it more dramatic :D

[stejay]

In really think the Rays have the belief to win it. They will be very fired up for this.

[NYMets523]

Rays in 5. Phillies are good enough to win 1 game but other than Hamels, their rotation isn't very impressive.

Philly has the better offense but their offense has had some bad cold stretches (June and August they were horrible).

[philkid3]

When I think about it. . . I could actually go to Phillies in 6, giving Hamels wins in games 1 and 5.

You think the Phillies would consider trying to get him to go 1-4-7, a la Curt Schilling?

[NewEnglandAmazins]

A common opponent W-L comparison:
Tampa

Opponent
Split W L WP
BOS 10 8 .556
CHC 3 0 1.000
FLA 5 1 .833
HOU 1 2 .333
LAA 6 3 .667
OAK 6 3 .667
PIT 2 1 .667
STL 1 2 .333
TEX 6 3 .667
Total 40 23 .635

Philly

Opponent
Split W L WP
BOS 1 2 .333
CHC 4 3 .571
FLA 8 10 .444
HOU 4 3 .571
LAA 0 3 .000
OAK 1 2 .333
PIT 4 2 .667
STL 5 4 .556
TEX 1 2 .333
Total 28 31 .475

[keystone]

As usual, my vote was logical and scientific. Phillies in 7. Not the overwhelming choice, I know.

The Phillies seem to have everything working against them, especially the whole momentum, destiny, & Cinderella factors. Not to mention no home "field" (the Trop is a field?) advantage, and "the-AL-is-winning-more-anyway" scenarios.

But they have one thing the Rays do not, and that is a good bullpen. Yes, David Price is the new K-Rod. But I am skeptical of any team which has to rely on Wheeler and Miller to get to him. Of course, the Rays might not ever need a bullpen with that hot starting pitching; I just think that the bullpen will decide the Series. However, it is possible, as philkid3 suggests, that Hamels could pull a Schilling; if he can take the physical strain, the Philllies would have decent SP, too.

Can one of you number wizards compare the two bullpens in the playoffs ONLY? No regular season stats.

[philkid3]

But they have one thing the Rays do not, and that is a good bullpen.
The Rays absolutely have a good bullpen, though. I wouldn't necessarily call it the better bullpen, but it's good.

As far as the number crunching, wish I could help you, Keystone. I'm not a numbers wizard I just like to copy them. :laugh

[josh24]

I'm going for Rays just because i think they deserve it. But i voted for Phils in 6. With Howard, Utley, Victorino, Rollins and Burrell, what Boston didn't do in game 4 and 7 vs Rays pitching, i'm 85% sure Phils WILL do it. Game 1 will be really great with Hamels @ TB.

[abolishthedh]

The Rays window of opportunity will be much smaller than the Phils'. However, considering the roll the Rays are on, my money would have to be on the Rays if I were a betting man.

Of which I am glad I am not, considering how the World Series has gone in recent years.:twocents:

[Honus Wagner Rules]

The Rays window of opportunity will be much smaller than the Phils'. However, considering the roll the Rays are on, my money would have to be on the Rays if I were a betting man.

Of which I am glad I am not, considering how the World Series has gone in recent years.:twocents:
Why is that? :shrug:

[rudy]

Why is that? :shrug:

I don't want to speak for abolishthedh, but I agree with him. The Rays may very well compete for years to come, but every year, it will be tough for them to make the playoffs with the Red Sox and Yanks in the same division as them (and hopefully one day the Jays will actually compete, although I'm not holding my breath). The Red Sox have a great team and a solid young nucleus as we all know, and I expect the Yanks to go hard into the FA market - having just missed the playoffs for the first time in 14 years and moving into a new stadium. I'm not saying making a big FA splash will guarantee the Yanks a playoff spot, but I do expect them to improve overall next year - but I don't expect them to win the WS anytime soon.

On the other hand, the Phils play in a relatively weaker division (in my opinion), and with their solid young stars (and financial ability to keep them as well), they should continue to enjoy similar success in the future.

I picked the Rays in 6.

[PVNICK]

I went Rays in 6. Howell and Price will be key as LH relievers to deal with Utley and Howard.

[deadball-era-rules]

I think the Phillies are going to lose because they've been sitting around waiting to play for too long.

[abolishthedh]

Why is that? :shrug:

Answering your question over why I'm not a betting man, well, I respect the laws of probability too well to risk hard earned cash. That, and I've learned a few lessons. :)

I also believe that in the past few years, a new generation of players has arrived. Recent players and teams play the game one game at a time, as if some of the old cliches have been in practice for them. The Rays are not intimidated by the pressure, or the possibility of becoming modern-day Amazin' Mets, or media expectations one way or another. It seems that the old rules of postseason play are out the window now that the Red Sox have won a couple of times, the White Sox have won recently, the Angels won their first, and the Marlins repeated all within the past 7 seasons.

[philkid3]

http://c4.ac-images.myspacecdn.com/images02/7/l_075068632d0f475ca11e6d6c906fed0b.jpg

[sflnyc]

I pick the Phillies in 6 Games

I don't really put a lot into the starting pitcher match-ups in the post-season because it seems to me that the bullpens end up deciding the games. Not only that, but before a game, all one will hear and read is how there is no way that Pitcher "A" can be beat, and then in the end result Pitcher "A" gets a no decision (so yes, he didn't get beat), but his team loses the game.

Not to mention, like the Cardinals in the early part of this decade, who were a good team for awhile but took them until 2006 to put it together, the Phillies have been really competitive for most of the decade, always falling short of the Wild Card spot until finally breaking through last year. Plus, the fact that I lived in the Philly area in 1979 means that my heart goes with them.

That being said.

Game 1 - TB Rays
Game 2 - TB Phillies
Game 3 - PHI Rays
Game 4 - PHI Phillies
Game 5 - PHI Phillies
Game 6 - TB Phillies

:gt

[keystone]

philkid3: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

[philkid3]

philkid3: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

Glad you liked it :D

[KevinWI]

Get ready, boys. Looks like we have a series on our hands.

[keystone]

I don't know if it's gonna be a good Series or not. The Phillies offense is non-existent. They are pitiful.

[philkid3]

I don't know if it's gonna be a good Series or not. The Phillies offense is non-existent. They are pitiful.

I'm with Keystone. I'm not feeling an exciting series. Still could be, but I'm not seeing a reason to expect it. I'll be mildly surprised if the next two games aren't beat downs at the hands of Tampa.

[keystone]

Yeah, Jamie Moyer against Matt Garza doesn't sound like a W for the Phillies. :eek:

The only hope Philadelphia had tonight was against Dan Wheeler, but he was on his game enough to keep them from doing any damage, even though it wasn't a sterling performance.

[philkid3]

Jim Rome's assesment of the Rays today:
The Rays are who we thought they were, not the guys who were trying to knock over the monster in Fenway. That's not where these guys live, they were built to do it with pitching, speed and defense, and it was all on Game 2 of the World Series. They don't wait for someone to pop a three runner, they play small ball, not long ball.
What is someone who follows sports for a living doing with so little clue about a team that's in the World Series that he has to make things up?

[keystone]

I think he thinks he's pretty smart. :noidea But he's an entertainer, not a *real* sports guy, and I figure baseball isn't his favorite sport, either.