Kotsay or Casey at first base for Red Sox?

[BiZmaRK]

I've noticed that Mark Kotsay has been playing first base for the Red Sox when Sean Casey is available. Perhaps there is something I don't know about, but on the surface, this doesn't make sense. Kotsay isn't a first baseman, while Casey is. And Casey has World Series experience. (not sure if Kotsay does). Anyone out there with any thoughts?

[SamtheBravesFan]

Saying Sean Casey has World Series experience implies that he's innately better than Kotsay. I don't think that's true.

Casey, in his limited action this year, basically had a bunch of singles. Sure he batted .322 in 218 PAs, but he only had 14 doubles and coupled that with zero homers. Kotsay essentially does the same thing. Mark has also played first base in his career before, so it doesn't really matter all that much who Francona starts. He's most likely to get the same kind of production from either of them.

[Dogdaze]

I've noticed that Mark Kotsay has been playing first base for the Red Sox when Sean Casey is available. Perhaps there is something I don't know about, but on the surface, this doesn't make sense. Kotsay isn't a first baseman, while Casey is. And Casey has World Series experience. (not sure if Kotsay does). Anyone out there with any thoughts?

I was wondering why Kotsay got the call over Casey myself, but after taking a closer look, I can see why.

Casey is probably the slowest runner on the Red Sox, while Kotsay is much faster. Casey’s defense, while not bad, may not be an improvement over Kotsay’s. Kotsay is much more athletic then Casey and from the games I’ve watched, Kotsay has showed good range and has made no errors playing 1st base. The Red Sox have played Kotsay at 1st base prior to the playoffs and he has made some good defensive plays, showing he’s very capable and earning the chance to play there.

Although Kotsay isn’t much better hitting wise then Casey, he has hit better then Casey in the 2nd half of the season, and has a better OBP as well as slugging, here are their 2nd half and September stats.

Casey hit .233/.300/.247 for the 2nd half of the season. And for September he hit .206/.250/.235 he had one extra base hit, a double.

Kotsay hit .273/.329/.412 for the 2nd half of the season. And for September he hit .206/.260/ .294 he had five extra base hits, four doubles and one triple.

[SamtheBravesFan]

Most of Kotsay's better second half came with Atlanta, though. The only thing that matters right now is what he did with Boston, I think. However, even looking at that, it still seems that Kotsay is the better option.

[Mickey Mental]

I wouldn't mind seeing Casey in there for a game or two but Kotsay is the better athlete and has made a few nice plays at first. He may not be hitting but has hit some shots that have been caught.

Because of Kotsay's ability to play more than one position, I'd like to see him return to Boston next season.

[Berkman#17]

It's pretty self explanatory, Kotsay is an infinitely better athlete, and despite limited experience at 1st, he reportedly has shown "perfect" footwork around the bag and plays it like a man that has been there his entire career. Plus his bat has been better down the stretch.

[Imgran]

I vote for Jeff Bailey. You could get him in without using an injury spot since he played in the leadup to 8/31. He could replace Casey altogether and help replace the righthanded power we lost when Lowell couldn't come back. In very limited playing time he looked like a vastly superior option.

In 50 at bats, mostly in September, Bailey was a respectable .280/.390/.460 with 2 HR's and a triple. He's an unspectacularly competent defender, neither a significant defensive asset nor a defensive liability. He also has outfield flexibility that could prove useful as he played LF and RF in the minors. For what little it's worth he was also the International league MVP and killed the minors tis year with 25 bombs and an OPS north of .950.

With Lowell out we have little to lose for giving the career minor leaguer his chance to shine on the highest stage, and it's emergency injury replacement that is the whole reason the Jeff Baileys of the world draw paychecks. So why not Bailey?

[Westlake]

So why not Bailey?

Because he's a replacement level player that shouldn't sniff a starting first baseman role in the playoffs?

[Imgran]

Because he's a replacement level player that shouldn't sniff a starting first baseman role in the playoffs?

Because Casey and Kotsay are so clearly above replacement level right now.

There's a difference between a replacement player (defined by role) and a replacement level player (defined by talent). Bailey's a replacement, but he's never really gotten a chance to prove whether he's replacement level or possibly more than that. Right now all we know about him is that with Youks moved to third he's our only available 1B with any power and he got on base well all year this year.

This is a time for replacement players anyway. We've lost our starter and Bailey is one of the inferior options we should be considering. I thin we lose the least for putting Bailey in fulltime vs. Kotsay or Casey

[Westlake]

Because Casey and Kotsay are so clearly above replacement level right now.

Um, yes, they are.

There's a difference between a replacement player (defined by role) and a replacement level player (defined by talent).

Yeah, that's why I made that clear in my statement.

Bailey's a replacement, but he's never really gotten a chance to prove whether he's replacement level or possibly more than that.

Try his MLE's.

Right now he's our only available 1B with any power potential and he got on base well all year this year.

Potential is cute, but at least I know i'm getting defense with Kotsay and a good bat in Casey. Now isn't the time to gamble.

This is a time for replacement players anyway.

No, it's not. Its the playoffs. That's the most absurd things i've ever read.

[Imgran]

Um, yes, they are.


Um, no they're not.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/kotsama01.php
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/caseyse01.php

Casey a good bat? Have you seen his second half numbers?

Bailey's MLE's are measurably better than Kotsay's or Casey's second half offensive numbers.

No, it's not. Its the playoffs. That's the most absurd things i've ever read.

What is it about the playoffs that renders you immune to needing to bring in a replacement when one of your big players gets hurt?

[Westlake]

Um, no they're not.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/kotsama01.php
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/caseyse01.php

Casey a good bat? Have you seen his second half numbers?

Bailey's MLE's are measurably better than Kotsay's or Casey's second half offensive numbers.

What is it about the playoffs that renders you immune to needing to bring in a replacement when one of your big players gets hurt?

I was unaware that the first half of a baseball season didn't matter.

Seriously man. You want Jeff Bailey to start at first base for the Sox in the ALCS. You lose. You come up with random AAAA players that you think should be on the roster/start every so often -- it never happens and never will happen. There's a reason Casey and Kotsay were brought to the team -- because they didn't want to have to start a guy like Bailey.

[BiZmaRK]

I was unaware that the first half of a baseball season didn't matter.

Seriously man. You want Jeff Bailey to start at first base for the Sox in the ALCS. You lose. You come up with random AAAA players that you think should be on the roster/start every so often -- it never happens and never will happen. There's a reason Casey and Kotsay were brought to the team -- because they didn't want to have to start a guy like Bailey.
I'm glad someone brought Jeff Bailey into this discussion. Without Bailey, I'm pretty sure this thread would have had a fairly quick and unentertaining death.

[Death to Crawling Things]

Well, having Kotsay and Casey both on the roster, is a bit redundant. It would make sense to rid yourself of one, and replace that one with Bailey, and platoon them or something. If I was the Red Sox I wouldnt be thrilled using Bailey, but I wouldnt be much more thrilled with Casey or Kotsay. 2 players who the last 2-3 years, have had their stocks plummet.

[Westlake]

I'm glad someone brought Jeff Bailey into this discussion. Without Bailey, I'm pretty sure this thread would have had a fairly quick and unentertaining death.

Trust me, this is probably the only place Jeff Bailey is being brought into the discussion.

[slaytanicsdmf]

Not trying to jack the thread but is Youkilis (sp?) a good defensive third baseman? I haven't had the chance to see him play the hot corner yet. I know he is a fantastic first baseman so it surprised me that they would put him at third. I know he was a third baseman before getting to Boston so it's not a stretch. But is he more valuable at third right now? To my knowledge the Red Sox don't have anyone else that can do the job, so I may have answered my own question, but I'm still curious.

[Evangelion]

Bailey? The Red Sox version of Shelley Duncan should start at 1B? I'm not one to insult other people's opinions, but that's very absurd suggestion. Only a person that would grossly over-rate potential and prospects would make this suggestion. No offense, Imgran, but you been grossly over-rating certain Red Sox prospects. You look at Triple A numbers and assume those will translate into MLB numbers no matter what type of prospect it is?

[Berkman#17]

Well, having Kotsay and Casey both on the roster, is a bit redundant. It would make sense to rid yourself of one, and replace that one with Bailey, and platoon them or something. If I was the Red Sox I wouldnt be thrilled using Bailey, but I wouldnt be much more thrilled with Casey or Kotsay. 2 players who the last 2-3 years, have had their stocks plummet.

They brought Kotsay in to be another LH bat off the bench, play multiple spots in a pinch, and as insurance in case Drew or someone else got hurt. Seems to have been a good idea with Lowell eventually going down. They didn't bring him in solely to go out and play first.

[Evangelion]

Not trying to jack the thread but is Youkilis (sp?) a good defensive third baseman? I haven't had the chance to see him play the hot corner yet. I know he is a fantastic first baseman so it surprised me that they would put him at third. I know he was a third baseman before getting to Boston so it's not a stretch. But is he more valuable at third right now? To my knowledge the Red Sox don't have anyone else that can the job, so I may have answered my own question, but I'm still curious.
You answer your own questin. If Youkillis was playing 1B, then Alex Cora would be in the starting lineup. I'll take Kotsay or Casey over Cora. By the way, if Youkillis was at 1B, then Lowrie would move to 3B and Cora would be at SS.

[Westlake]

Not trying to jack the thread but is Youkilis (sp?) a good defensive third baseman? I haven't had the chance to see him play the hot corner yet. I know he is a fantastic first baseman so it surprised me that they would put him at third. I know he was a third baseman before getting to Boston so it's not a stretch. But is he more valuable at third right now? To my knowledge the Red Sox don't have anyone else that can the job, so I may have answered my own question, but I'm still curious.

Yes, he's a pretty good defensive third baseman. He doesn't have the side-to-side range that Lowell does, but he's not shabby at all. He fields bunts well, has a good arm, and can lay out for line drives pretty well (the same way he does at 1st).

They're making the right move by putting him at third.

[Imgran]

Right, Youks is the best available 3Bman, since our alternates there are REAL replacement level players, Alex Cora or the amazing Keith Ginter.

Bailey's worst case scenario can't be a ton worse than Kotsay's or Casey's, and there's a chance -- just a chance mind you -- that he might actually continue to hit like he's done all year and in that case he'd be way over replacement level. (just a little reminder, ~800OPS is not replacement level, even for 1B or LF. For a replacement level LF, think more along the lines of Shannon Stewart or Frank Catalonotto and for 1B, think Ross Gload)

If I said that Kotsay in particular but also Casey to a lesser extent (post-ASB at least) could continue playing at their current level that would probably be considered a bad thing.

Bailey had a great year for Pawtucket and more than pulled his weight over a SSS at the big league level this year. I really do not see why you are so dead set against making use of what looks for all the world like our least bad option at 1B.

[Imgran]

And since you guys already think i'm crazy I might as well bring up the REAL white elephant in the room.

http://images.sportsline.com/u/ap/photos/FLDC110100917_1024x768.jpg

[Imgran]

Trust me, this is probably the only place Jeff Bailey is being brought into the discussion.

You mean other than SoSH, where I've seen it both in the SB and the RSF??

A lot of people are looking at the career year Bailey had this year and hoping that maybe he could keep it going just a few weeks longer.

[Westlake]

You mean other than SoSH, where I've seen it both in the SB and the RSF??

A lot of people are looking at the career year Bailey had this year and hoping that maybe he could keep it going just a few weeks longer.

No, I meant including SoSH. Baseball message boards. It's not happening. Sorry.

I'm really not that 'dead set' against it (though i'll take Kotsay), it's just very very very unlikely to happen -- there's really no point in discussing it unless something happens to either Kotsay or Casey.

[Death to Crawling Things]

Yeah, I'd still rather have Kotsay starting. But, Bailey on the bench, might be a better option than Casey. Though given, the WS, they'll have to spend some time in an NL park. ANd Ortiz going to 1B, it might be a little redundant like I said to have both Kotsay and Casey there. Though, I dont really no for sure what the rest of the bench is like. Cora/Lugo, Lowrie, and Cash?