Ned Garvin

[AstrosFan]

Can anyone explain this guy's bad luck to me? I know he pitched for bad teams, but he's not just unlucky compared to the rest of the league, he's unlucky compared to his teammates. Let's look at his seasons:

1896: We'll ignore it, since 13 IP doesn't matter

1899: Garvin pitched 199 innings for the Chicago Orphans with a 131 ERA+ on a team that went 75-73. He was rewarded with a 9-13 record. Two other pitchers had comparable ERA+s, Clark Griffith and Nixey Callahan, at 134 and 122, respectively. They went 22-14 and 21-12. (Pay attention to the winning percentages, not the value of the pitcher's contribution. A high ERA+ generally results in a high winning percentage. For Griffith and Callahan, this is true. For Garvin, it is not.)

1900: For the Orphans, Garvin pitched 246 1/3 innings with a 150 ERA+ on a team with a 65-75 record. He went 10-18. Only Jack Taylor had comparably bad luck, going 10-17 with a 142 ERA+.

1901: The Milwaukee Brewers were awful, going 48-89. Garvin had a 104 ERA+, and a 7-20 record. Tully Sparks was almost as unlucky, going 7-16 with a 102 ERA+. But Bill Reidy posted a 16-20 record with an 85 ERA+, and Bert Husting went 10-15 with an 84 ERA+.

1902: Ignoring the 18 innings he pitched for Brooklyn, Garvin pitched 175 1/3 innings for the White Sox, a team with a 74-60 record, with a 154 ERA+. He went 10-10. The rest of the starters had a combined 95 ERA+, and went 62-49.

1903: Pitching for Brooklyn, a team that went 70-66, Garvin posted a 104 ERA+ in 298 innings. He went 15-18. Oscar Jones was a little better in the ERA+ department (109), and went 19-14. Henry Schmidt was very lucky, going 22-13 despite an ERA+ of 83.

1904: Garvin pitched 181 2/3 innings for a 56-97 Brooklyn team. His 162 ERA+ trounced the efforts of any other major starter, yet he went only 5-15, easily the worst of the major starters.

Garvin added another 12 innings with the New York Highlanders that year, but by then it was over. His career record was 57-97, despite a career ERA+ of 124. It would be easy to explain his poor record as the effect of pitching for bad teams, but it was more than that. He was ALWAYS the unluckiest pitcher on any team he pitched at least 100 innings for.

So what gives? Is there an explanation for Garvin's unusual career, or is it simply the fact that out of all the pitchers in baseball history, one was bound to have a career pattern like this?

[csh19792001]

Or is it simply the fact that out of all the pitchers in baseball history, one was bound to have a career pattern like this?

Yeah, that's probably it, actually; the consummate outlier.

Have you seen his career run support totals, setting 100 as average? Laughable! IIRC it was someone analogous to what Walter Johnson endured in 1908-09.

Then again, for Garvin it was more or less his entire career, not 2 years....

[AstrosFan]

What are they, and where can I find such numbers?

[The Splendid Splinter]

Yeah, that's probably it, actually; the consummate outlier.

Have you seen his career run support totals, setting 100 as average? Laughable! IIRC it was someone analogous to what Walter Johnson endured in 1908-09.

Then again, for Garvin it was more or less his entire career, not 2 years....

Yeah you see this sometime... Matt Cain last year or 2 years ago. Jake Peavy this year. You don't see it happening more than 1 or 2 years in a row usually. Garvin is that rare case or "one of a kind" where it happened throughout his whole career.

[csh19792001]

What are they, and where can I find such numbers?

Dave Kent (wrgptfan) used to post information on run support.

example (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?p=954175#post954175)

Actually, after a half hour of searching, here you go!


Best Run Support, Career
1 Larry Corcoran 125
Allie Reynolds 125
3 Tony Cloninger 124
4 Steve Blass 122
Don Newcombe 122
6 Hooks Wiltse 120
7 Johnny Allen 119
Art Nehf 119
Vic Raschi 119
10 Chief Bender 117
Jack Billingham 117
Lefty Gomez 117
Carl Mays 117
Flint Rhem 117
Kirk Rueter* 117
16 Juan Marichal 116
Russ Meyer 116
18 Lew Burdette 115
Freddie Fitzsimmons 115
Whitey Ford 115
Mudcat Grant 115
Mike Hampton* 115
Pat Malone 115
Jack Sanford 115
25 Jim Bagby 114
Bill Bernhard 114
Mordecai Brown 114
Tex Carleton 114
Sam Leever 114
Bob Lemon 114
Bob Walk 114
32 Nelson Briles 113
George Earnshaw 113
Dave Foutz 113
Doc Gooden 113
Bruce Kison 113
Herb Pennock 113
Jeff Tesreau 113
39 Bob Caruthers 112
Hooks Dauss 112
Catfish Hunter 112
Red Ruffing 112
Rip Sewell 112
Lon Warneke 112
David Wells* 112
46 Mike Caldwell 111
Carl Erskine 111
Dave McNally 111
Andy Pettitte* 111
Shane Reynolds 111
J.R. Richard 111
Johnny Sain 111
Bill Swift 111
John Ward 111
55 Elden Auker 110
Storm Davis 110
Dizzy Dean 110
Jim Hearn 110
Ramon Martinez 110
Hal Schumacher 110
61 Tommy Bond 109
Mort Cooper 109
Sid Fernandez 109
Burleigh Grimes 109
Harvey Haddix 109
Claude Hendrix 109
Larry Jansen 109
Vern Law 109
Denny McLain 109
Blue Moon Odom 109
Chan Ho Park* 109
Eddie Plank 109
Schoolboy Rowe 109
Dutch Ruether 109
Frank Smith 109
Jesse Tannehill 109
Bob Turley 109
Will White 109
Ed Willett 109
80 Hank Borowy 108
Tom Brewer 108
Bob Buhl 108
Kid Carsey 108
Eddie Cicotte 108
Bill Donovan 108
Ron Guidry 108
Bill Gullickson 108
Moose Haas 108
Jesse Haines 108
Ken Holtzman 108
Jim Lonborg 108
Christy Mathewson 108
Jim Palmer 108
Aaron Sele* 108
Bob Shawkey 108
Bryn Smith 108
Warren Spahn 108
Ralph Terry 108
Mike Torrez 108
Jim Wilson 108
Earl Wilson 108


Worst Run Support Career
1 Ron Kline 81
Nap Rucker 81
Stump Wiedman 81
4 Si Johnson 82
5 Jose DeLeon 83
John Healy 83
Dupee Shaw 83
8 Slim Harriss 84
Ken Raffensberger 84
10 Milt Gaston 85
Sid Hudson 85
Billy Rhines 85
13 Jersey Bakely 87
George Blaeholder 87
Bill Dietrich 87
Pink Hawley 87
Thornton Lee 87
Toad Ramsey 87
Bob Rush 87
Jim Scott 87
21 Hal Brown 88
Bob Groom 88
Steve Hargan 88
Rick Honeycutt 88
Steve Rogers 88
Javier Vazquez* 88
27 Ed Brandt 89
Ted Breitenstein 89
Ned Garver 89
Earl Hamilton 89
Bobo Newsom 89
Togie Pittinger 89
33 Jim Clancy 90
Bill Hutchison 90
Randy Jones 90
Alex Kellner 90
Danny MacFayden 90
Win Mercer 90
Ed Morris 90
Case Patten 90
Barney Pelty 90
Tully Sparks 90
Willie Sudhoff 90
44 Mark Baldwin 91
Tom Candiotti 91
Dolly Gray 91
Mark Langston 91
Jon Matlack 91
Sam McDowell 91
Vinegar Bend Mizell 91
Brad Radke* 91
Ron Reed 91
Johnny Schmitz 91
Bob Smith 91
55 Jim Abbott 92
Floyd Bannister 92
Don Cardwell 92
Bill Dinneen 92
Red Ehret 92
Jack Fisher 92
Bob Friend 92
Mark Gubicza 92
Noodles Hahn 92
Joe Horlen 92
Ken Johnson 92
Al Leiter* 92
Dolf Luque 92
Mike Morgan 92
Eddie Rommel 92
Lefty Stewart 92
Ismael Valdez* 92
Dazzy Vance 92
Johnny Vander Meer 92
Frank Viola 92
75 Kevin Appier 93
Max Butcher 93
Frank Dwyer 93
Kevin Gross 93
Erik Hanson 93
Danny Jackson 93
Larry Jackson 93
Sam Jones 93
Carl Morton 93
Henry Porter 93
Dave Roberts 93
Steve Trachsel* 93
Rube Waddell 93
Jim Whitney 93
89 18 players tied 94

I take it back; Nap Rucker might be the unluckiest pitcher in baseball history.

[csh19792001]

This is a perfect example of the folly of blindly following numbers. Garvin's name is conspicuously scant on the worst run support lists....

Why? That's largely because the distribution of runs is far more important to decisions than the actual number of runs; a guy could lose many, many close games in a season and then win several where his team scores tons of runs. His run support total will be high, but how much it actually mattered to his wins and losses will be substantially less.

Babe Ruth had incredible run support in his career, yet Shoelessjoe once went through and truly edified me as to how his career figure greatly belied the reality of how much it factored into his decisions. I was grateful for his imparting of knowledge to me.


Best Run Support Season
1 Chuck Dobson, 1971 165
2 Bill Donovan, 1907 156
3 Don Newcombe, 1955 156
4 Shawn Estes, 2000 156
5 Paul Abbott, 2001 155
6 Jim McCormick, 1885 153
7 Darby O\'Brien, 1891 153
8 Al Spalding, 1876 153
9 Allie Reynolds, 1947 153
10 Jack Kramer, 1948 152
11 Carl Mays, 1921 152
12 Bob Feller, 1952 152
13 Doc Gooden, 1988 152
14 Monte Pearson, 1936 152
15 Red Ruffing, 1939 152
16 Whitey Ford, 1953 151
17 Dave McNally, 1971 151
18 Jack Coombs, 1911 150
19 Steve Carlton, 1976 150
20 Dock Ellis, 1971 150
21 Jamie Moyer, 1997 149
22 Freddie Fitzsimmons, 1930 148
23 Kelly Downs, 1988 148
24 Jack Chesbro, 1902 147
25 Joe Corbett, 1897 147
26 Ralph Branca, 1949 147
27 Nick Maddox, 1908 147
28 Dan Marion, 1915 147
29 Phil Douglas, 1921 147
30 Jack Billingham, 1976 147
31 Doyle Alexander, 1973 147
32 Herb Pennock, 1931 147
33 Mort Cooper, 1944 146
34 Steve Blass, 1969 146
35 Denny McLain, 1968 146
36 Waite Hoyt, 1928 146
37 Ben Rivera, 1993 146
38 Hooks Dauss, 1919 146
39 Boardwalk Brown, 1913 145
40 Waite Hoyt, 1927 145
41 Gene Bearden, 1948 145
42 Lefty Gomez, 1932 145
43 Eddie Plank, 1913 145
44 Dave Ferriss, 1946 144
45 Juan Marichal, 1968 144
46 John Ward, 1879 144
47 Hideki Irabu, 1999 144
48 Bert Husting, 1902 144
49 Dave Roberts, 1972 144
50 Jeff Tesreau, 1914 144
51 Russ Meyer, 1953 143
52 Sam Leever, 1905 143
53 George Pipgras, 1930 143
54 Flint Rhem, 1926 143
55 Ed Reulbach, 1908 143
56 Shane Reynolds, 2003 143
57 Red Ruffing, 1931 143
58 Cliff Lee, 2005 143
59 Billy Taylor, 1884 142
60 Jack Quinn, 1928 142
61 David Wells, 1998 142
62 Ken Brett, 1974 142
63 Ferdie Schupp, 1917 142
64 Horacio Ramirez, 2003 142
65 Ed Karger, 1910 142
66 Steve Blass, 1968 142
67 Clark Griffith, 1901 142
68 Tom Phoebus, 1967 142
69 Schoolboy Rowe, 1935 141
70 Bob McClure, 1982 141
71 J.R. Richard, 1975 141
72 Doc Gooden, 1990 141
73 Art Nehf, 1923 141
74 Woody Williams, 2003 141
75 Jesse Haines, 1921 141
76 Elam Vangilder, 1922 141
77 Mordecai Brown, 1906 141
78 Larry Christenson, 1977 140
79 Tommy Byrne, 1949 140
80 Allie Reynolds, 1951 140
81 Mike Hampton, 1999 140
82 Larry Dierker, 1972 140
83 George Uhle, 1923 140
84 Red Ames, 1905 140
85 Claude Hendrix, 1918 140
86 Tommy Byrne, 1950 140
87 Bryn Smith, 1985 140
88 George Mullin, 1908 139
89 Art Nehf, 1920 139
90 Ken Holtzman, 1972 139
91 Kirk Rueter, 1998 139
92 Lefty Grove, 1929 139
93 Freddie Fitzsimmons, 1932 139
94 Ferdie Schupp, 1920 139
95 Virgil Barnes, 1924 139
96 Tully Sparks, 1905 139
97 Carl Erskine, 1953 138
98 Andy Pettitte, 2003 138
99 David Wells, 2002 138
100 Burleigh Grimes, 1928 138


Worst Run Support Season
1 Walter Johnson, 1909 52
2 Jesse Petty, 1927 53
3 Paul Derringer, 1933 54
4 Stump Wiedman, 1884 55
5 Chief Hogsett, 1937 56
6 Earl Hamilton, 1912 56
7 Roy Evans, 1902 56
8 Jose DeLeon, 1985 57
9 Roger Craig, 1963 57
10 Mel Harder, 1933 57
11 Jim Pastorius, 1908 58
12 Jim Abbott, 1992 58
13 Jim Devlin, 1876 58
14 Vinegar Bend Mizell, 1958 59
15 Frank Gilmore, 1887 59
16 Mickey Haefner, 1947 59
17 Woody Williams, 1997 59
18 David Cone, 1993 59
19 Irv Young, 1905 59
20 Bob Groom, 1909 60
21 Pete Richert, 1967 60
22 Tommy Hughes, 1942 61
23 Howard Ehmke, 1925 61
24 Jack Neagle, 1884 61
25 Dummy Taylor, 1902 61
26 Eddie Smith, 1942 61
27 Rube Melton, 1942 61
28 Bugs Raymond, 1908 61
29 Happy Townsend, 1904 61
30 Nap Rucker, 1911 61
31 Jack Fisher, 1968 62
32 Fred Beebe, 1907 62
33 Charlie Hough, 1993 62
34 Dave Roberts, 1971 62
35 Danny Jackson, 1986 62
36 Bruce Berenyi, 1982 62
37 Al Mattern, 1910 62
38 Bill Wight, 1948 62
39 Virgil Trucks, 1952 62
40 Benny Frey, 1930 63
41 Jose Bautista, 1988 63
42 Si Johnson, 1933 63
43 Bill Wight, 1950 63
44 Buster Brown, 1910 63
45 Ned Garvin, 1901 63
46 Jack Taylor, 1900 63
47 Stump Wiedman, 1886 63
48 Willie Blair, 1998 63
49 Dave Stieb, 1981 63
50 Steve Woodard, 1998 64
51 Murry Dickson, 1953 64
52 Kaiser Wilhelm, 1905 64
53 Jim Whitney, 1886 64
54 Bob Harmon, 1914 64
55 Al Jackson, 1965 64
56 Turk Farrell, 1962 64
57 Dennis Blair, 1975 64
58 Dutch Leonard, 1920 64
59 Don Larsen, 1954 64
60 John Ewing, 1889 64
61 Roger Clemens, 1993 64
62 Win Mercer, 1902 65
63 Casey Fossum, 2004 65
64 Bob Weiland, 1933 65
65 Togie Pittinger, 1901 65
66 Henry Porter, 1888 65
67 Al Benton, 1942 65
68 Ed Karger, 1907 65
69 Jack Armstrong, 1993 65
70 Tony Saunders, 1998 65
71 Kirk McCaskill, 1991 65
72 Jersey Bakely, 1889 65
73 Wilson Alvarez, 1998 65
74 George Ferguson, 1909 65
75 Fleury Sullivan, 1884 65
76 Bob Rush, 1950 66
77 Kevin Brown, 1996 66
78 Sam Weaver, 1878 66
79 Johnny Antonelli, 1957 66
80 Todd Ritchie, 2001 66
81 Adonis Terry, 1884 66
82 Jim Hughey, 1898 66
83 Charlie McCullough, 1890 66
84 Beany Jacobson, 1904 66
85 Carl Morton, 1972 66
86 Matt Keough, 1979 66
87 Nate Cornejo, 2003 66
88 Mike Mussina, 2000 66
89 Bob Rush, 1949 66
90 Ismael Valdez, 2001 66
91 Hank O\'Day, 1888 66
92 Si Johnson, 1942 66
93 Brad Radke, 2000 67
94 Jerry Robertson, 1969 67
95 Danny Jackson, 1987 67
96 Ellis Kinder, 1947 67
97 Walt Masterson, 1947 67
98 Kaiser Wilhelm, 1908 67
99 Britt Burns, 1980 67
100 Joe Boehling, 1916 67

[AstrosFan]

Additionally, it's because it compares it to runs average, and not earned run average. Garvin allowed a lot of unearned runs.

[Paul Wendt]

Worst Run Support Career
1 Ron Kline 81
Nap Rucker 81
Stump Wiedman 81
I take it back; Nap Rucker might be the unluckiest pitcher in baseball history.
Among more than 300 starting pitchers whose DT cards I have checked at baseballprospectus, Stump Wiedman suffered the worst team fielding support, measured by the difference
RAA (-51) - PRAA (81) per inning pitched (2318) * 9 = -0.51 normalized runs per game.

That is, with Wiedman at work on the mound his teams yielded one-half run per game more than they would have with league-average fielding. Davenport credits Wiedman with saving about 0.3 runs per game by pitching well. The net is about 0.2 rpg on the wrong side of zero --more than average runs allowed by the team with Wiedman in the box.

Approximately in order the ten "leaders" are four pitchers from the 1880s and their uncle Bobby Mathews --all working in a high variance environment-- early relief ace Dick Radatz, 1950s Ned Garver, cutballer Russ Ford, knuckleballers Wilbur Wood and Emil Leonard.

So 1950s Ned Garver is number one among about 300 starting pitchers after 1892 (-0.29).
Among superstar pitchers, who are all in this population, the leaders are Dazzy Vance, Rube Waddell (both -0.14), Roger Clemens and Brandon Webb (both -0.12).

[RuthMayBond]

This is a perfect example of the folly of blindly following numbers. Garvin's name is conspicuously scant on the worst run support lists....Somewhat because it is INDIVIDUAL seasons, not career. In addition to 1901, he should also appear for 1904, but that season was split between NL & AL. His 1904 support was somewhere south of 66

[RuthMayBond]

I take it back; Nap Rucker might be the unluckiest pitcher in baseball history.Nap Rucker at least had a winning percent of 50 and an ERA+ of "only" 119. Garvin had a winning percent of 37 and an ERA+ of 125 :eek::banghead:

[Paul Wendt]

Ned Garvin was a ghastly batter.

Among more than 300 starting pitchers whose DT cards I have checked at baseballprospectus, Ned Garvin at OPS+ -19 is the worst batter relative to a rough average for contemporary pitchers --worse than Dean Chance at -46 in the 1960s, for example. The approximation is errorprone (is there a reference source for pitcher-average OPS+ by league-season or decade?) but Garvin must be high among the true "leaders".

Was Garvin erratic?

Garvin was a dangerous Texas gunslinger. Owner Charlie Comiskey fired him after a Thursday night shooting. The Chicago Tribune quoted Comiskey understanding why manager Clark Griffith had done it [give Garvin extra chances, I infer] but this was too much.

[RuthMayBond]

Ned Garvin was a ghastly batter.

Among more than 300 starting pitchers whose DT cards I have checked at baseballprospectus, Ned Garvin at OPS+ -19 is the worst batter relative to a rough average for contemporary pitchers --worse than Dean Chance at -46 in the 1960s, for example. The approximation is errorprone (is there a reference source for pitcher-average OPS+ by league-season or decade?) but Garvin must be high among the true "leaders".

Dang, was he worse than Bob Buhl or Koosman or Bob Friend?

[csh19792001]

moved to another thread...

[nerfan]

Dang, was he worse than Bob Buhl or Koosman or Bob Friend?

Speaking of Koosman... also a very unlucky pitcher. Should have finished his career with 250 or so wins.

[Beady]

Among more than 300 starting pitchers whose DT cards I have checked at baseballprospectus, Stump Wiedman suffered the worst team fielding support.

Interesting to note I have seen an account by Weidman himself of his falling out with Detroit manager William Watkins, whichWeidman says started when he complained that Watkins was managing the team so the pitcher got all the worst of it, with every little squib and pop fly falling in for a hit. I'm sure Watkins wasn't telling anybody not to catch the ball, but perhaps Weidman thought the Detroit management was living with bad fielders in order to put together all the big boppers they had in their lineup. I

Garvin seems to have been amiable when sober, but he was more than a mean drunk, he was positively dangerous. Probably this has nothing to do with his bad luck, but I wouldn't entirely rule out the possibility that his teammates may have been deliberately laying down to get rid of him.

[Paul Wendt]

Thanks for writing.

In the current edition of Advanced Pitching Statistics, Wiedman is no longer at the pinnacle. More to the point, that rating system locates all of his poor career fielding support in 1881 and 1882, the expansion team under Frank Bancroft. Wiedman's fielding support is rated slightly above average during the rest of his career and very good during his 1887 return to Detroit (an over the hill pitcher on that champion team of big boppers).

[Beady]

Yes, the quote I had was from July, 1886, but now that I'm home looking at it I realize it refers to an argument the previous fall, and Weidman had actually left Detroit before most of the big stars joined the team in the spring of 1886.

When he came back at the start of 1887 he said the trouble had arisen due to what he now considered “exaggerated, or…thoughtless utterances," and he was happy to return, in fact he said he had turned down more money from Pittsburgh because he wanted to play for a winner.