Career Wins Leaders Not In Cooperstown

[BlueBlood]

I had a mind to continue with these leader board polls, then kind of forgot about them. But they're fun, so here we are.

Roger Clemens - 354
Greg Maddux - 353 (and counting)
Tom Glavine - 305 (and counting)
Bobby Matthews - 297
Randy Johnson - 294 (and counting)
Tommy John - 288 (and counting after he has another arm surgery)
Bert Blyleven - 287
Tony Mullane - 284
Jim Kaat - 283
Mike Mussina - 266 (and counting)
Jim McCormick - 265
Gus Weyhing - 264
Jack Morris - 254
Jack Quinn - 247
Dennis Martinez - 245
Jack Powell - 245
Jamie Moyer - 241 (and counting)
Frank Tanana - 240
David Wells - 239 (so close to his weight)
Tommy Bond - 234
Charlie Buffinton - 233
Sam Jones - 229
Luis Tiant - 229
Will White - 229
George Mullin - 228
Paul Derringer - 223
Mel Harder - 223
Hooks Dauss - 222
Jerry Koosman - 222
Joe Niekro - 221
Jerry Reuss - 220
Kenny Rogers - 219 (and counting)
Bob Caruthers - 218
Earl Whitehill - 218
Freddie Fitzsimmons - 217
Mickey Lolich - 217
Wilbur Cooper - 216
Charlie Hough - 216
Curt Schilling - 216 (and counting?)

We'll arbitarily cut things off here. My sleeves are starting to look like Curt's sock.

[Brad Harris]

Looks like Jamie Moyer is going to join Jack Morris and Tommy John as the only post-1893 pitchers with 250+ wins who aren't Hall-worthy.

[nerfan]

David Wells - 239 (so close to his weight)

not really. he weighs closer to 1000000000000000000000000

[Brooklyn]

I know that cutoff is arbitrary, but there were a couple of more interesting ones if you extended it a little lower. the next 7 in line were:

Jim Perry 215
Andy Pettite 214
Rick Reuschel 214
Pedro Martinex 213
Kevin Brown 211
Bobo Newson 211
Bob Welch 211
John Smoltz 210

While Pedro should be automatic, I think Pettite, Brown and Smoltz would generate good conversation

[Brooklyn]

I'm surprised at some of the early results, that Mussina and Schilling are both 10/10.

I voted Mussina based on how I expect him to finish this year and pitch next (and beyond?). If he were to retire today, he'd be very borderline for me.

[Brooklyn]

Looks like Jamie Moyer is going to join Jack Morris and Tommy John as the only post-1893 pitchers with 250+ wins who aren't Hall-worthy.

Why do you support Jim Kaat and not Tommy John? I support neither, but have John higher

John has a better career record. Lower career era. Higher career ERA+. More career innings pitchied. Faired better in Cy Young Voting. More all star teams. Better postseason record.

Kaat has more K's, a lower WHIP and all the gold gloves.

I can't see putting Kaat ahead of John, unless you really value those gold gloves. Is that it?

I don't give a pitcher any extra credit for gold gloves. his ability to field is already reflected in all his other stats. His ERA and WHIP are already lower becuase he is a better fielder. Looking at those stats takes the pitcher's fielding into account

[KCGHOST]

I went with:

Clemens
Maddux
Glavine
Johnson
Blyleven
Mussina
Schilling

[gman5431]

Went with Maddux, Glavine and Johnson. I believe Mad Dog and Randy Johnson are easy sure first ballot HOF. Glavine is pretty much a dunk now too since he got to 300. Cant find myself a reason to vote for Clemens but i acknowledge he will get in eventually, as will all the other cheats. One i thought about was Schilling, who doesnt really have HOF worthy numbers but i think his post season exploits will eventually get him entry. Thought about Tommy John also based on his contribution to the game and think he will also eventually get in. Dont think Mussina belongs. No one else even crossed my mind.

G Man

[Brad Harris]

Why do you support Jim Kaat and not Tommy John? I support neither, but have John higher

John has a better career record. Lower career era. Higher career ERA+. More career innings pitchied. Faired better in Cy Young Voting. More all star teams. Better postseason record.

Kaat has more K's, a lower WHIP and all the gold gloves.

I can't see putting Kaat ahead of John, unless you really value those gold gloves. Is that it?

I don't give a pitcher any extra credit for gold gloves. his ability to field is already reflected in all his other stats. His ERA and WHIP are already lower becuase he is a better fielder. Looking at those stats takes the pitcher's fielding into account

Good points all. I suppose there was some lingering credit there for the gold gloves. I give John no credit for the surgery, btw. I've got their careers valued at a dead heat, but Kaat had a significantly better peak and I weight peak fairly heavily. In giving it some more thought, however, Kaat is such an "on the fence" pick for me and I'm pretty strongly opposed to John's induction so I guess I can't really wedge that big a gap between the two. I'll have to add Kaat to the "close but no cigar" list. Thanks for challenging my assumptions. :)

[Mike90]

Kaat and John and Morris are as borderline to me as possible. Kaat had that monster season in 1966 (25-13, 305 innings, ERA 31% better than average, 5th in MVP voting) and two hall of fame type seasons in '74 and '75, but most of the time he was barely better than average pitching for teams with very good offenses.

Joe Posnanski (great blog) pointed out the similarities between Kaat and Morris. Both won over 250 games with good winning percentages, pitched for good teams throughout their career, have a unique thing going for them (16 gold gloves for Kaat, Game 7 for Morris). They both kept playing for a few years after they had stopped being of any use to their teams, piling up their counting stats while pitching at a pretty bad level.

Jim Kaat through age 37 (1959-76): 247-201 (.551 WP%), 3.31 ERA, 11% better than average, 3866 innings
Jack Morris through age 37 (1977-92): 237-168 (.585 WP%), 3.73 ERA, 8% better than average, 3530 innings

I don't see a whole lot to seperate those two pitchers. John is a bit above both of those guys but not by much.

[Brooklyn]

Good points all. I suppose there was some lingering credit there for the gold gloves. I give John no credit for the surgery, btw. I've got their careers valued at a dead heat, but Kaat had a significantly better peak and I weight peak fairly heavily. In giving it some more thought, however, Kaat is such an "on the fence" pick for me and I'm pretty strongly opposed to John's induction so I guess I can't really wedge that big a gap between the two. I'll have to add Kaat to the "close but no cigar" list. Thanks for challenging my assumptions. :)

I also don't give John a lick of credit for the surgery. He just happened to be in the right place at the right time. Although that definitely adds to his "fame", and for that I supsect his name will be much more common plan than Jim Kaat in 50 years or so. But I still give no credit.

I took another look at Kaat's 1966 season. You have a fair point with this being an excellent season. It is somewhat unfair that I was looking at John's second place finishes in Cy Voting and giving him more credit than Kaat. In 1966, there was only one Cy, and only one vote per voter. Koufax swept, so while Kaat may have been second best (although I didn't research), he'd get no credit jsut looking at Cy Young votes

Probabalby fair to say they are very close to each other, and can probably put either a notch above. But as you suggest, I'd be surprised if the HOF line falls between them for anyone.

[Paul Wendt]

Here are some navigational aids.

There are four score and two pitchers with 216 or more major league wins 1871-2008, including two score and three Hall of Fame members.Down to 210 wins there are another dozen (94 total) including Andy Pettite, Pedro Martinez, and John Smoltz active; Stan Coveleski, Chief Bender, and Jesse Haines in the Hall of Fame.

Among the top 20 by wins 18 are in the Hall of Fame; Clemens and Maddux complete that score. Progressing down the leader board in twenties here are the shares in the Hall of Fame.
18 of 20
28 of 40
41 of 60
43 of 80
49 of 101 (a tie)
53 of 120
56 of 140
. . . Koufax and Ward in the top 200
. . . Joss, Dean, and Cummings in the 250 (so far, 60 starting pitchers plus Eckersley)
. . . Wilhelm 143 wins, Gossage 124, Fingers 114, Ruth 94, Sutter 68
Baseball-reference lists 1000 including ties, down to 63 wins.

[Brad Harris]

Kaat and John and Morris are as borderline to me as possible. Kaat had that monster season in 1966 (25-13, 305 innings, ERA 31% better than average, 5th in MVP voting) and two hall of fame type seasons in '74 and '75, but most of the time he was barely better than average pitching for teams with very good offenses.

Joe Posnanski (great blog) pointed out the similarities between Kaat and Morris. Both won over 250 games with good winning percentages, pitched for good teams throughout their career, have a unique thing going for them (16 gold gloves for Kaat, Game 7 for Morris). They both kept playing for a few years after they had stopped being of any use to their teams, piling up their counting stats while pitching at a pretty bad level.

Jim Kaat through age 37 (1959-76): 247-201 (.551 WP%), 3.31 ERA, 11% better than average, 3866 innings
Jack Morris through age 37 (1977-92): 237-168 (.585 WP%), 3.73 ERA, 8% better than average, 3530 innings

I don't see a whole lot to seperate those two pitchers. John is a bit above both of those guys but not by much.

Agreed.

I think the fact that John, Kaat and Morris have such similar cases really underscores the fact that none of them belong in the Hall of Fame. It's the "too common" aspect of their production. They were each, essentially, above average pitchers on good teams for a long time. I'd prefer to draw the line for the Hall of Fame above, not below, that set of candidates.

[Paul Wendt]

(above I might have added that Kevin Brown is in the next dozen at 210-215 wins)

Curt Schilling at the bottom of the ballot joins the six "haves" at the top.
Bob Caruthers makes eight for me, but the group puts him far behind the seven.

I would complete my vote-for-10 ballot with Martinez and Smoltz.

[Mike90]

My HOF ballot out of those pitchers

Locks, No Explanation
1) Greg Maddux
2) Randy Johnson
3) Bert Blyleven (Nothing I could say about him that hasn't been said a thousand times)
4) Tom Glavine

Deserving but on a lower level:

5) Curt Schilling. His 2001, '02, and '04 seasons were equal to or better than Glavine's Cy Young seasons. Had consecutive 15+ win, 250+ inning, 300+ K seasons in '97 and '98 for teams that sucked. His career ERA is 27% better than the park-adjusted league average, which is incredible (Bob Gibson's ERA was 27% better than average).

6) Mike Mussina. Never had a season where he was clearly the best pitcher in the AL, although there's an argument to be made that he deserved the Cy Young in 1992, '94, '95, or '01. He's won 115 more games than he's lost in his career. Even taking into account that he's pitched for 90+ win teams for the past 7 years, that record is amazing. Glavine is 102 games above .500, Nolan Ryan 32 games above .500.

7) Luis Tiant. Why Catfish and not Tiant? Similar records (229-172 for Tiant; 224-166 for Catfish) and Catfish pitched for better teams. Catfish has an ERA of 3.26 pitching in great pitchers' parks; Tiant has an ERA of 3.30 pitching half his career in Fenway Park. When adjusted for their parks, Tiant's ERA is 14% better than average, and Catfish's is 4% better. Both had great peak seasons.

Good pitchers who pitched a long time for really good offensive teams and have some unique thing going for them but really shouldn't be in the Hall: Tommy John, Jim Kaat, Jack Morris, David Wells, Jamie Moyer

[Brad Harris]

Non Hall-of-Famers w/ 190+ Career Wins
Bold indicates my support for election

354 Roger Clemens
353 Greg Maddux
305 Tom Glavine
297 Bobby Matthews
294 Randy Johnson
288 Tommy John
287 Bert Blyleven
284 Tony Mullane
283 Jim Kaat
266 Mike Mussina
265 Jim McCormick
264 Gus Weyhing
254 Jack Morris
247 Jack Quinn
245 Dennis Martinez
245 Jack Powell
241 Jamie Moyer
240 Frank Tanana
239 David Wells
234 Tommy Bond
233 Charlie Buffinton
229 Sam Jones
229 Luis Tiant
229 Will White
228 George Mullin
223 Paul Derringer
223 Mel Harder
222 Hooks Dauss
222 Jerry Koosman
221 Joe Niekro
220 Jerry Reuss
219 Kenny Rogers
218 Bob Caruthers
218 Earl Whitehill
217 Freddie Fitzsimmons
217 Mickey Lolich
216 Wilbur Cooper
216 Charlie Hough
216 Curt Schilling
215 Jim Perry
214 Andy Pettite
214 Rick Reuschel
213 Pedro Martinez
211 Kevin Brown
211 Bobo Newson
211 Bob Welch
210 John Smoltz
209 Vida Blue
209 Milt Pappas
208 Eddie Cicotte
207 Carl Mays
204 Orel Hershiser
204 Al Orth
203 Lew Burdette
203 Silver King
203 Jack Stivetts
201 Charley Root
200 Chuck Finley
200 George Uhle
198 Bucky Walters
197 Larry French
197 Bob Friend
197 Jesse Tannehill
197 Adonis Terry
196 Claude Osteen
196 Bob Shawkey
195 Joe Bush
194 Babe Adams
194 Doyle Alexander
194 Tommy Bridges
194 David Cone
194 Dwight Gooden
194 Larry Jackson
194 Sam Leever
194 Dolf Luque
193 Wes Ferrell
193 Curt Simmons
192 Lon Warneke
191 Dutch Leonard
191 Jim Whitney

[BlueBlood]

Bobby Matthews really got the shaft. Had there been stats and the NA in 1870, he'd have topped 300 wins with over 5000 IP. He'd be a shoe-in with the VC as was Welch.