Top 100 pitcher project phase 2: Choosing tier 1

[jjpm74]

The purpose of this ballot is to choose the 20 pitchers who we will ultimately be using to decide on our top 10. The 10 not selected will be paired up with tier 2 to help us decide our #s 11-30. The remainder will be paired up with tier 3 to determine #s 31-50, etc...

These are the pitchers we'll be choosing from selcted from each of the first set of phase 2 polls. Because of a tie, there are 41 to choose from. Please vote for 20. In the event of a tie in this round, we will have a run off. Ties will no longer be automatically carried over:

Pete Alexander
Bert Blyleven
Mordecai Brown
Steve Carlton
John Clarkson
Roger Clemens
Dizzy Dean
Dennis Eckersley
Bob Feller
Bob Gibson
Tom Glavine
Lefty Gomez
Lefty Grove
Carl Hubbell
Randy Johnson
Walter Johnson
Tim Keefe
Sandy Koufax
Greg Maddux
Juan Marichal
Pedro Martinez
Christy Matthewson
Phil Neikro
Kid Nichols
Satchel Paige
Jim Palmer
Gaylord Perry
Eddie Plank
Mariano Rivera
Robin Roberts
Bullet Joe Rogan
Amos Rusie
Nolan Ryan
Tom Seaver
John Smoltz
Warren Spahn
Dazzy Vance
Rube Waddell
Ed Walsh
Smoky Joe Williams
Cy Young

This is a vote for 20! This poll will run for 4 days. If one of your top 20 don't get into tier 1, don't fret. They still can get into tier 2 and have a chance at the top 20. :)

[jjpm74]

Links to previous rounds:

Pre-1893 (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=78102)
1893-1919 (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=78755)
1920-1945 (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=79250)
NeL and Pre-NeL (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=79656)
1946-1968 (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=79664)
1969-1985 (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=80460)
1986-2007 (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=80845)
Active Pitchers (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=81263)

Phase 2 threads

pre-1893, 1919 (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=81666)
1919-1945, NeL (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=81856)
1946-1985 (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=82095)
1986-present (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?p=1288021)
Choosing Tier 1 (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=82535)

Phase 1 winners:

Pre-1893:

John Clarkson
Tommy Bond
Bob Caruthers
Larry Corcoran
Candy Cummings
Pud Galvin
Tim Keefe
Sliver King
Bobby Mathews
Jim McCormick
Tony Mullane
Charley Radbourne
Al Spalding
John Ward
Mickey Welch

1894-1919:

Chief Bender
Mordecai Brown
Jack Chesbro
Eddie Ciccotte
Clark Griffith
Addie Joss
Rube Marquard
Christy Mathewson
Joe McGinty
Kid Nichols
Deacon Phillippe
Eddie Plank
Ed Reulbach
Amos Rusie
Jesse Tannehill
Hippo Vaughn
Rube Waddell
Ed Walsh
Vic Willis
Smoky Joe Wood
Cy Young

1920-1945:

Pete Alexander
Tommy Bridges
Wilbur Cooper
Stan Coveleski
Dizzy Dean
Red Faber
Wes Ferrell
Lefty Gomez
Burleigh Grimes
Lefty Grove
Carl Hubbell
Waite Hoyt
Walter Johnson
Ted Lyons
Carl Mays
Herb Pennock
Eppa Rixey
Red Ruffing
Urban Shocker
Dazzy Vance
Bucky Walters

NeL and Pre-NeL:

Ray Brown
Andy Cooper
Leon Day
Martin DiHigo
John Donaldson
Bill Foster
Rube Foster
Bill Jackman
Jose Mendez
Satchel Paige
Cannonball Dick Redding
Bullet Joe Rogan
Luis Tiant Sr.
Smoky Joe Williams
Nip Winters

1946-1968:

Jim Bunning
Don Drysdale
Bob Feller
Whitey Ford
Bob Gibson
Sandy Koufax
Bob Lemon
Dutch Leonard
Sal Maglie
Juan Marichal
Denny McLain
Don Newcombe
Hal Newhouser
Billy Pierce
Robin Roberts
Johnny Sain
Warren Spahn
Dizzy Trout
Virgil Trucks
Hoyt Wilhelm
Early Wynn

1969-1985:

Vida Blue
Steve Carlton
Rollie Fingers
Ron Guidry
Catfish Hunter
Fergie Jenkins
Tommy John
Jim Kaat
Jerry Koosman
Mickey Lolich
Sparky Lyle
Tug McGraw
Phil Neikro
Jim Palmer
Gaylord Perry
Dan Quisenberry
Rick Reuschel
Tom Seaver
Don Sutton
Luis Tiant Jr.
Wilbur Wood

1986-2007:

Bert Blyleven
Kevin Brown
Roger Clemens
David Cone
Dennis Eckersley
John Franco
Doc Gooden
Goose Gossage
Tom Henke
Orel Hershiser
Jimmy Key
Dennis Martinez
Jack Morris
Nolan Ryan
Brett Saberhagen
Curt Schilling
Lee Smith
Dave Stieb
Bruce Sutter
Frank Tanana
Fernando Vanenzuela
David Wells

Active pitchers:

Tom Glavine
Roy Halladay
Trevor Hoffman
Tim Hudson
Randy Johnson
Greg Maddux
Pedro Martinez
Mike Mussina
Roy Oswalt
Andy Pettitte
Mariano Rivera
C.C. Sabathia
Johan Santana
John Smoltz
Billy Wagner

Phase 2 winners

pre-1893, 1893-1919

Mordecai Brown
John Clarkson
Tim Keefe
Christy Matthewson
Kid Nichols
Eddie Plank
Amos Rusie
Rube Waddell
Ed Walsh
Cy Young

1920-1945, pre NeL and NeL

Pete Alexander
Dizzy Dean
Lefty Gomez
Lefty Grove
Carl Hubbell
Walter Johnson
Satchel Paige
Bullet Joe Rogan
Dazzy Vance
Smoky Joe Williams

1946-1985

Steve Carlton
Bob Feller
Bob Gibson
Sandy Koufax
Juan Marichal
Phil Neikro
Jim Palmer
Gaylord Perry
Robin Roberts
Tom Seaver
Warren Spahn

1986-present

Bert Blyleven
Roger Clemens
Dennis Eckersley
Tom Glavine
Randy Johnson
Greg Maddux
Pedro Martinez
Mariano Rivera
Nolan Ryan
John Smoltz

Tier 1

Pete Alexander
Steve Carlton
Roger Clemens
Bob Feller
Bob Gibson
Lefty Grove
Carl Hubbell
Randy Johnson
Walter Johnson
Sandy Koufax
Greg Maddux
Pedro Martinez
Christy Matthewson
Kid Nichols
Satchel Paige
Nolan Ryan
Tom Seaver
Warren Spahn
Smoky Joe Williams
Cy Young

[BlueBlood]

My 20:

Pete Alexander
Mordecai Brown
Steve Carlton
Bob Feller
Bob Gibson
Lefty Grove
Carl Hubbell
Randy Johnson
Walter Johnson
Sandy Koufax
Greg Maddux
Pedro Martinez
Christy Matthewson
Kid Nichols
Satchel Paige
Jim Palmer
Tom Seaver
Warren Spahn
Smoky Joe Williams
Cy Young

[Paul Wendt]

Regarding the Negro Leagues and 1920-1945 group I remarked that Hubbell is alone in tier 2.

Tier 1, or 1 and 1a, who will certainly have my votes for the top 20
Young
Nichols, Matty
-- Clarkson and ?? in tier 2

Johnson, Alexander, Grove
Wiliams, Paige
-- Hubbell and ?? in tier 2

??
??
??

Clemens, Maddux, Johnson, Martinez
??
??

That is 12 pitchers without anyone yet from "1946-1986", a group that runs from Feller and Spahn to Seaver & Co. Even if Seaver is the only one in Tier 1/1a (as runs and innings may suggest), competition for my 20 will be furious and it will be a challenge for another *recent pitcher to make it. If I fill in the details Tier 2 will certainly be too big to include wholesale.
--*last time I was talking about Smoltz, Schilling, Brown, Mussina but Glavine and Smoltz are the ones on the ballot.

[leecemark]

--My first run through netted 21 pitchers. John Clarkson was the cut from that group. Juan Marichal as the only other pitcher I hesitated on before continuing the first pass so I feel pretty good about my 20. Five votes in as I post this and 3 left Koufax off. I think Sandy is overrated by those who have him in their top 10. Not enough career weight for that. Outside the top 20 is underrating though. Must be extreme career voters getting in their ballots first.

[leecemark]

Pete Alexander 5 100.00%
Steve Carlton 5 100.00%
Roger Clemens 4 80.00%
Bob Feller 4 80.00%
Bob Gibson 4 80.00%
Lefty Grove 5 100.00%
Carl Hubbell 4 80.00%
Randy Johnson 5 100.00%
Walter Johnson 5 100.00%
Sandy Koufax 2 40.00%
Greg Maddux 5 100.00%
Pedro Martinez 5 100.00%
Christy Matthewson 4 80.00%
Kid Nichols 5 100.00%
Satchel Paige 5 100.00%
Robin Roberts 2 40.00%
Tom Seaver 5 100.00%
Warren Spahn 5 100.00%
Smoky Joe Williams 4 80.00%
Cy Young 5 100.00%

--Nobody I didn't vote for ha more than 2 votes so far and I'm not the lone supporter of anybody, so I guess my choices are pretty mainstream in this one.

[Paul Wendt]

This table ranks the pitchers by career in three different ways that put more or less weight on innings pitched, which is quantity, and on ERA+, which is quality. Column two gives all-time mlb rank by runs saved below 120% of league average so the high-innings, low-ERA+(highERA) pitchers rank best in that column. See Nolan Ryan and Pud Galvin. Column four gives all-time rank by runs saved below league average so the low-innings, high-ERA+(lowERA) pitchers rank best in that column. See Pedro Martinez and Dizzy Dean. Column three is intermediate, measuring runs saved below 110% of league average.

This is based entirely on career innings and ERA+. There is no adjustment such as modern sabrmetricians make to account for the role of the fielders when they are not charged with errors. So all three versions "overrank" those who benefit most from excellent fielding support (eg, Spalding, Radbourn, Clarkson, Brown, Hubbell, Ford, Palmer, and Spalding?).

For everyone runs are measured in the same environment 0.5 earned runs per inning or 4.5 per 9-inning complete game, so there is no direct advantage from pitching in high-scoring times, and no direct disadvantage.

The pitchers whose rank barely changes from column to column represent "normal" combinations of quantity and quality (except at the top of the list where they are too few for their ranks to change anyway). For example see Palmer and Gibson near #20, Vic Willis near #40, Will White constant at #49.
* 0 0 0 Satchel Paige
* 0 0 0 Bullet Joe Rogan
* 0 0 0 Smoky Joe Williams
120% 110% 100% baseline percent of league average runs
* 1 1 1 Cy Young
* 2 2 2 Walter Johnson
* 3 3 4 Kid Nichols
* 4 4 3 Roger Clemens
* 5 5 5 Pete Alexander
* 6 6 7 Christy Mathewson
* 7 10 10 Tim Keefe
* 8 7 6 Lefty Grove
* 9 8 8 John Clarkson
* 10 9 9 Greg Maddux
* 11 11 12 Tom Seaver
* 12 13 22 Warren Spahn
* 13 14 24 Gaylord Perry
* 14 12 11 Randy Johnson
* 15 17 29 Phil Neikro
* 16 16 26 Bert Blyleven
* 17 23 35 Steve Carlton
* 18 15 21 Eddie Plank
19 26 27 Radbourn
* 20 32 59 Nolan Ryan
* 21 22 20 Jim Palmer
* 22 21 19 Bob Gibson
* 23 20 17 Amos Rusie
24 27 31 Mullane
25 44 104 Galvin
26 33 50 Welch
* 27 25 18 Carl Hubbell
* 28 18 14 Ed Walsh
* 29 24 15 Mordecai Brown
30 30 41 McCormick
* 31 19 13 Pedro Martinez
32 37 52 FERGIE JENKINS
33 39 53 Rixey
* 34 42 58 Robin Roberts
35 35 40 Faber
36 36 42 Lyons
* 37 38 43 Tom Glavine
* 38 31 33 Bob Feller
39 55 106 DON SUTTON
40 28 16 Spalding
41 29 23 WHITEY FORD
42 41 44 Willis
43 59 96 TOMMY JOHN
* 44 34 25 Rube Waddell
* 45 43 38 Juan Marichal
46 40 30 KEVIN BROWN
47 67 145 Mathews
* 48 46 36 John Smoltz
49 49 49 Will White
50 45 32 HAL NEWHOUSER
51 47 37 CURT SCHILLING
52 50 47 DON DRYSDALE
53 48 39 Coveleski
55 52 51 Griffith
57 53 45 Cicotte
58 57 46 King
* 64 58 48 Dazzy Vance
67 51 28 HOYT WILHELM
69 54 34 Joss
* 78 74 85 Dennis Eckersley
* 101 78 57 Sandy Koufax
* 104 86 69 Lefty Gomez
* 153 116 84 Dizzy Dean
* 272 178 95 Mariano Rivera
Who is included? Everyone who ranks in the top 51 mlb pitchers by any one of the three versions (59 pitchers) plus the 41 pitchers in this poll (8 more, including three from the Negro Leagues listed at the top). Star * marks those in the poll.

(You should be able to copy this into a spreadsheet by select copy paste.)

[Paul Wendt]

To satisfy my curiosity I tried baseline 90% of league average, or no credit for holding teams 10% below league average. That is just ridiculous enough to bump Walter Johnson above Cy Young at #1-2, Pedro Martinez above Greg Maddux at #9-10, and Addie Joss above Gibson & Palmer at #21; to lift all of the best career relief pitchers into the top 100; and to give zero credit to Nolan Ryan and everyone else at career ERA+ 111.

In terms of ERA+ the three columns in the table give zero credit for ERA+ = 100, 90.9, and 83.3.

--
WARNING
Don't build a PhD thesis on this material. I used innings pitched thru 2006 and ERA+ at different times since then, mainly during the 2008 season. So don't take it too seriously, even if you believe the theory 100%.

[STLCards2]

This table ranks the pitchers by career in three different ways that put more or less weight on innings pitched, which is quantity, and on ERA+, which is quality. Column two gives all-time mlb rank by runs saved below 120% of league average so the high-innings, low-ERA+(highERA) pitchers rank best in that column. See Nolan Ryan and Pud Galvin. Column four gives all-time rank by runs saved below league average so the low-innings, high-ERA+(lowERA) pitchers rank best in that column. See Pedro Martinez and Dizzy Dean. Column three is intermediate, measuring runs saved below 110% of league average.

This is based entirely on career innings and ERA+. There is no adjustment such as modern sabrmetricians make to account for the role of the fielders when they are not charged with errors. So all three versions "overrank" those who benefit most from excellent fielding support (eg, Spalding, Radbourn, Clarkson, Brown, Hubbell, Ford, Palmer, and Spalding?).

For everyone runs are measured in the same environment 0.5 earned runs per inning or 4.5 per 9-inning complete game, so there is no direct advantage from pitching in high-scoring times, and no direct disadvantage.

The pitchers whose rank barely changes from column to column represent "normal" combinations of quantity and quality (except at the top of the list where they are too few for their ranks to change anyway). For example see Palmer and Gibson near #20, Vic Willis near #40, Will White constant at #49.
* 0 0 0 Satchel Paige
* 0 0 0 Bullet Joe Rogan
* 0 0 0 Smoky Joe Williams
120% 110% 100% baseline percent of league average runs
* 1 1 1 Cy Young
* 2 2 2 Walter Johnson
* 3 3 4 Kid Nichols
* 4 4 3 Roger Clemens
* 5 5 5 Pete Alexander
* 6 6 7 Christy Mathewson
* 7 10 10 Tim Keefe
* 8 7 6 Lefty Grove
* 9 8 8 John Clarkson
* 10 9 9 Greg Maddux
* 11 11 12 Tom Seaver
* 12 13 22 Warren Spahn
* 13 14 24 Gaylord Perry
* 14 12 11 Randy Johnson
* 15 17 29 Phil Neikro
* 16 16 26 Bert Blyleven
* 17 23 35 Steve Carlton
* 18 15 21 Eddie Plank
19 26 27 Radbourn
* 20 32 59 Nolan Ryan
* 21 22 20 Jim Palmer
* 22 21 19 Bob Gibson
* 23 20 17 Amos Rusie
24 27 31 Mullane
25 44 104 Galvin
26 33 50 Welch
* 27 25 18 Carl Hubbell
* 28 18 14 Ed Walsh
* 29 24 15 Mordecai Brown
30 30 41 McCormick
* 31 19 13 Pedro Martinez
32 37 52 FERGIE JENKINS
33 39 53 Rixey
* 34 42 58 Robin Roberts
35 35 40 Faber
36 36 42 Lyons
* 37 38 43 Tom Glavine
* 38 31 33 Bob Feller
39 55 106 DON SUTTON
40 28 16 Spalding
41 29 23 WHITEY FORD
42 41 44 Willis
43 59 96 TOMMY JOHN
* 44 34 25 Rube Waddell
* 45 43 38 Juan Marichal
46 40 30 KEVIN BROWN
47 67 145 Mathews
* 48 46 36 John Smoltz
49 49 49 Will White
50 45 32 HAL NEWHOUSER
51 47 37 CURT SCHILLING
52 50 47 DON DRYSDALE
53 48 39 Coveleski
55 52 51 Griffith
57 53 45 Cicotte
58 57 46 King
* 64 58 48 Dazzy Vance
67 51 28 HOYT WILHELM
69 54 34 Joss
* 78 74 85 Dennis Eckersley
* 101 78 57 Sandy Koufax
* 104 86 69 Lefty Gomez
* 153 116 84 Dizzy Dean
* 272 178 95 Mariano Rivera
Who is included? Everyone who ranks in the top 51 mlb pitchers by any one of the three versions (59 pitchers) plus the 41 pitchers in this poll (8 more, including three from the Negro Leagues listed at the top). Star * marks those in the poll.

(You should be able to copy this into a spreadsheet by select copy paste.)

Seems like a disproportionate amount of 1800's pitchers in the top 50, no?

[Paul Wendt]

Seems like a disproportionate amount of 1800's pitchers in the top 50, no?
No.
1. The runs were saved by the pitchers plus their fielders.
This is based entirely on career innings and ERA+. There is no adjustment such as modern sabrmetricians make to account for the role of the fielders when they are not charged with errors. So all three versions "overrank" those who benefit most from excellent fielding support (eg, Spalding, Radbourn, Clarkson, Brown, Hubbell, Ford, Palmer, and Spalding?).
That list of example pitchers does distort the picture by underlisting 19c pitchers.

2. The table is ordered by the "120%" column. Relative to ordering by 110% or 100% baseline, that puts more weight on innings or quantity, lesser weight on ERA+ or quality. The appearance favors 19c and 1960s/70s pitchers relative to ordering the alternative orderings.

Among the three baselines, the 110% which means no credit for ERA+ 91 provides the best match for our collective values. The top 25 by that criterion are all in this poll featuring our 41 stage two winners. By the 120% baseline, with more weight on innings, Radbourn, Mullane, and Galvin (and their fielders) are in the top 25 at #19-24-25. By the 100% baseline, with more weight on ERA+, Spalding and Ford (and their fielders) are in the top 25 at #16 and #23. Those five were losers in our stage two polls.
Who is included? Everyone who ranks in the top 51 mlb pitchers by any one of the three versions (59 pitchers) plus the 41 pitchers in this poll (8 more, including three from the Negro Leagues listed at the top). Star * marks those in the poll.
I took the top 50 by each of three criteria and noticed that that happened to give me the top 51 by each. Actually it gave me the top 53 by each.

[Windy City Fan]

Alexander
Brown
Carlton
Clemens
Feller
Gibson
Hubbell
Johnson
Johnson
Koufax
Martinez
Maddux
Mathewson
Nichols
Paige
Palmer
Seaver
Spahn
Vance
Young

Only Brown and Vance are low support guys on my list, and I feel strongly about both. Vance was a rate stat wonder who pitched for a lousy team. Look at all the ink he racked up in K/BB, K/9, Hit/9, and WHIP.

Plus he did all of that from age 31 on.

[gman5431]

I'm suprised by Koufax's votes so far - many consider him one of if not the most dominate lefty ever - albeit for a shorter time then others.

G Man

[Paul Wendt]

The neighboring "HOF Collaboration Game" put these twelve pitchers in their top 50 players.
Originally Posted by dgarza View Post
8. Walter Johnson
15. Lefty Grove
18. Greg Maddux
21. Roger Clemens
23. Cy Young
27. Pete Alexander
34. Tom Seaver
35. Satchel Paige
41. Warren Spahn
44. Randy Johnson
46. Steve Carlton
50. Kid Nichols
Recently that group has debated Bob Feller next and I (not a selector) have interjected that Joe Williams, Bob Gibson, and Pedro Martinez are the remaining pitchers in the first tier.

So far I have named 16 pitchers. Spahn, Carlton, and Feller are three of about a dozen whom I rank roughly 15-25. Others include Clarkson, Rogan, Hubbell, Roberts, Niekro, Perry, Smoltz, Schilling, Rivera. (That is precisely twelve in this paragraph so I will stop. Exchange Rusie or Blyleven if you wish.) It isn't clear to me that Bob Feller, for example, belongs n the top half of this dozen, so it isn't clear to me that I should vote for him in this poll. Why?

Are some of you granting a lot of "war credit" to Feller?
some to Spahn?

[Paul Wendt]

Juan Marichal is a non-starter. We are overrating him here. --where we have exceptionally clear 19 and he is a leading candidate for number 20.

We should have advanced Hoyt Wilhelm instead.
or Fergie Jenkins.

If Marichal completes the twenty, he'll finish in the bottom ten there, and so "tumble down" to the 11-40 poll. I'll be back to explain why he should be in the bottom ten again.

P.S.
The tumble down tiers make the preceding post relevant to the project. Otherwise all discussion should now MTWHF focus only on number 20.

[Freakshow]

The neighboring "HOF Collaboration Game" put these twelve pitchers in their top 50 players.
8. Walter Johnson
15. Lefty Grove
18. Greg Maddux
21. Roger Clemens
23. Cy Young
27. Pete Alexander
31. Christy Mathewson
34. Tom Seaver
35. Satchel Paige
41. Warren Spahn
44. Randy Johnson
46. Steve Carlton
50. Kid Nichols
Actually, 13. Mathewson was overlooked.

[jjpm74]

Robin Roberts currently sits in the 20th spot with a mere 6 votes. All the others of the top 20 are clear with the next 5-6 battling it out for #20 (which is why I'm glad the tumble down approach was adopted).

[PVNICK]

Alexander
Carlton
Clarkson
Clemens
Feller
Gibson
Grove
Randy Johnson
Walter Johnson
Koufax
Maddux
Marichal
Martinez
Mathewson
Nichols
Paige
Rivera
Seaver
Spahn
Young

[henrich]

Someone didn't vote for Cy Young??? Was that a voting strategy?

[BlueBlood]

Had I known Koufax would struggle, I'd have used a voting strategy...:banghead:

[Brad Harris]

Had I known Koufax would struggle, I'd have used a voting strategy...:banghead:

Why? Is it so far-fetched that Koufax isn't one of the 20 greatest pitchers in history?

[leecemark]

--Pretty high level of consensus. 15 pitchers over with over 80% support. Kid Nichols and Sandy Koufax actually seem like locks as well at 73 and 68%. Smokey Joe Williams and Carl Hubbell look fairly safe at 55 and 50%. The last spot in the top 20 is pretty hotly contested;
Roberts, Palmer and Ryan 32
Brown and Blyleven 28
Marichal and Rivera 27
Clarkson and Perry 23

[BlueBlood]

Why? Is it so far-fetched that Koufax isn't one of the 20 greatest pitchers in history?

It's far-fetched that he isn't one of the 15 greatest pitchers in history. :dance

Oh, can we have a runoff for Ryan, Roberts & Palmer? They're trailing the others by a large margin and it would be a shame to let one sneak in with hardly any support.

[Tyrus4189Cobb]

If it's ok, I'd like to join in. This is my first round in this though, so what exactly should I be doing? voting for my top 20 pitchers?

[jjpm74]

If it's ok, I'd like to join in. This is my first round in this though, so what exactly should I be doing? voting for my top 20 pitchers?

Join on in!

Vote for your top 20 out of this group.

[jjpm74]

Oh, can we have a runoff for Ryan, Roberts & Palmer? They're trailing the others by a large margin and it would be a shame to let one sneak in with hardly any support.

That's looking like something that may indeed happen.

[Brad Harris]

Roberts is an easy choice over Palmer or Ryan, IMO. Roberts beats both Palmer and Ryan in peak value by a fair margin, beats Palmer by quite a bit in career value and only just loses to Ryan in career value. Roberts has the best value per season pitched among the three, too.

[leecemark]

1) Roberts
2) Palmer
3) Ryan

[STLCards2]

1. Roberts - incredible 6 year peak
2. Ryan
3. Palmer - don't underestimate how mych he benefited from having one of the best defenses in baseball history behind him for a majority of his career. the modern day M. Brown, if you will. Still a great, HOF pitcher, but not the top 20 guy that his face-value stats indicate.

[PVNICK]

If the previous three posts mean there is a run off I go
1-Roberts
2-Palmer


3-Ryan

Palmer is sort of the forgotten man of his era, but throughout most of the seventies he and Seaver were considered the best in their respective leagues. Also, I don't think Roberts was hurt by having Richie Ashburn in CF (though I'm just speculating that based on his HRA).

[Brad Harris]

If the previous three posts mean there is a run off I go
1-Roberts
2-Palmer


3-Ryan

Palmer is sort of the forgotten man of his era, but throughout most of the seventies he and Seaver were considered the best in their respective leagues. Also, I don't think Roberts was hurt by having Richie Ashburn in CF (though I'm just speculating that based on his HRA).

Of course, Blyleven, Brown, Marichal and Rivera are lingering just one vote behind that trio so any of these guys could conceivably make that 20th cut. IMHO, Roberts is the best of the seven.

[Captain Cold Nose]

1. Roberts
2. Palmer
3. Ryan

[leecemark]

--I have Marichal ahead of both Palmer and Ryan. Close call with Roberts. Brown probably owes more to his defense than any pitcher in history. Deserving Hall of Famer, but overrated and not top 20 material. He is basically Palmer with a shorter career and in a significantly weaker league. Blyleven might be top 30 and definately better than many Hall of Famers, but he has become such an internet cult hero that he is overrated by many, including those voting for him in the top 20 here. Rivera?????? He gives away a gianormous amount of innings to all the others and many more besides. I might give him a thought in the top 40, but probably not.
--I'd recommend a runoff if nobody can get at least a 2 vote separation from this pack. If 19th place is around 50% then a guy getting 35% to somebody elses 33% for 20th hardly represents any kind of consensus. The runoff ouht to include anybody in at least a 2 vote range and ought to be a weighted ballot. A single vote concept may have somebody getting 5 to two others guys 4 out of 20 ballots and would again not reflect a consensus.

[leecemark]

--Even as the comments have pointed towards Roberts as the best of the pack a new voters have put Palmer and Ryan ahead. They now have 8 votes (35%), Roberts remains at 7 (now 30%) and Blyleven, Brown, Marichal and Rivera remain at 6 (now 26%). Another voter going either Ryan or Palmer, but not the other (and not Roberts) and we may not need a runoff. Of course, another voter not taking either Palmer or Ryan and it tightens up even more:hp.

[leecemark]

--Another new voter, who made no comment. He/she did not vote for any of the top 3 contenders for the 20th spot (Palmer/Ryan 8 and Roberts 7). Did vote for Perry and Clarkson, bringing that next tier up to 6, 9 is probably too many for a run off and you could go with a simple poll if there are just the 3 of them. Of course this is still very much subject to change.

[Mike90]

I'm not seeing the argument for Ryan over Roberts. Ryan won 38 more games but has 47 more losses. Roberts was clearly the NL's best pitcher in '52 and he contributed more in his three best seasons ('52, '53, '54) than Ryan in his best season ('73). How many pitchers had a bigger impact over 6 seasons than Roberts from '50 to '55?

I think I would take Palmer over Ryan, but that one's closer. Palmer's W-L record is helped by the great teams he played for, and his ERAs were helped by his parks and the great defenses behind him.

[Brad Harris]

--I'd recommend a runoff if nobody can get at least a 2 vote separation from this pack. If 19th place is around 50% then a guy getting 35% to somebody elses 33% for 20th hardly represents any kind of consensus. The runoff ouht to include anybody in at least a 2 vote range and ought to be a weighted ballot. A single vote concept may have somebody getting 5 to two others guys 4 out of 20 ballots and would again not reflect a consensus.
Great idea, Mark!

[jjpm74]

Mark,

I was already considering a runoff in this tiered approach, but had not considered a weighted ballot. Could you elaborate a little on how to go about casting a weighted ballot in runoff situations in this project?

If we do have a runoff, it will include everyone currently in the 25-33% range unless things change and we see 1 or 2 or 3 pulling away from the pack a little.

How do others feel about setting up runoffs in the event of close calls like we have here for #20 at this point? Is it necessary to do given that we're also going with the drop down approach when we get to the actual ranking?

[AstrosFan]

--I have Marichal ahead of both Palmer and Ryan. Close call with Roberts. Brown probably owes more to his defense than any pitcher in history. Deserving Hall of Famer, but overrated and not top 20 material. He is basically Palmer with a shorter career and in a significantly weaker league. Blyleven might be top 30 and definately better than many Hall of Famers, but he has become such an internet cult hero that he is overrated by many, including those voting for him in the top 20 here. Rivera?????? He gives away a gianormous amount of innings to all the others and many more besides. I might give him a thought in the top 40, but probably not.
--I'd recommend a runoff if nobody can get at least a 2 vote separation from this pack. If 19th place is around 50% then a guy getting 35% to somebody elses 33% for 20th hardly represents any kind of consensus. The runoff ouht to include anybody in at least a 2 vote range and ought to be a weighted ballot. A single vote concept may have somebody getting 5 to two others guys 4 out of 20 ballots and would again not reflect a consensus.

I gave Rivera a sympathy vote after screwing relievers in the last rounds. All that did was compound my error(s). Live and learn, I guess. If I had it to do over again, I'd probably go with Roberts or Niekro.

Blyleven was a better pitcher than Ryan and Palmer. In career value, I'd place him among the top 15 pitchers in MLB history, and he deserved the 1973 AL Cy Young. I'm not sure if I'd put him ahead of Marichal, though. Still, I think he is unquestionably a top 30 pitcher.

[leecemark]

Mark,

I was already considering a runoff in this tiered approach, but had not considered a weighted ballot. Could you elaborate a little on how to go about casting a weighted ballot in runoff situations in this project?

If we do have a runoff, it will include everyone currently in the 25-33% range unless things change and we see 1 or 2 or 3 pulling away from the pack a little.

How do others feel about setting up runoffs in the event of close calls like we have here for #20 at this point? Is it necessary to do given that we're also going with the drop down approach when we get to the actual ranking?

--A weighted ballot would mean MVP style voting where you'd have to count the points (if it was say a 10 man ballot, then 10 for 1st, 9 for 2nd, etc) rather than a poll. A little extra work for you, but the results would much better reflect ou consensus.

[Paul Wendt]

jjpm,
How small will the field be when you go to "vote for one"? Will you subdivide all the way to one-on-one, mano-a-mano, head-to-head?

Anyway you don't need any runoffs for any polls until the winner(s) will have no future tumble-down opportunities. Not even runoffs to break ties. What for? Here, for example, no one wins anything but the opportunity to run for the top ten. Drop any ties and cut this field to 19; or include any ties and expand it to 21 or 24. It doesn't matter because there is "zero" probability anyone in this tie for #20 will next finish tenth.

I understand that you will next cut to ten who will compose the final top ten. Since there will be no opportunity for those winners to tumble out of the top ten that is where you need a runoff.

If you will next take the final ten and order them by nine "vote for one" polls,
(a) ten is a big group to order that way
(b) you need some tie-breaker for every one of those nine polls

--
How do you plan to get the tiers 3, 4, 5 ... of size about twenty, iirc? For example will you rely on numerical results from stage 1 and stage 2 all the way down, to define all of the tiers?

IIUC tier 3 will be able to finish as high as #31; tier 4 will be able to finish as high as #51; etc. So you want all the strong candidates for the top 50 (given this body of voters) in tier 3 or above, a few more than sixty with ties. That will be a challenge.

Frankly, I doubt that you have all the strong candidates for the top 30 in tier 2 and above, the 41 pitchers on this ballot. And I'm sure that it's impossible with tier 4, a few more than eighty with ties. There are more than 80+ strong candidates for the top 70. I don't suggest that you change the heart of the scheme (tiers roughly equal in size, about twenty, iiuc). Part of the point is to see how well that works. Knowing more about how you plan to define the tiers I might have useful advice on how to refine the plan.

[Paul Wendt]

Sorry about that, I didn't get back in time to vote. There were a lot of parties in Boston with Spalding getting elected.

It would not have mattered at rank 20. As you know, if you recall correctly #13-14, neither Palmer nor Ryan is in my consideration set at this stage. I didn't vote for Palmer in his stage 2 and I barely voted for Ryan in his.

As you know if you understand correctly #40, I don't believe rank 20 matters at this stage.

The results show a clear first 15 as well as the clear 19 with Williams, Nichols, Koufax, and Hubbell making up the difference. But again it doesn't matter to the final ranking if I understand correctly.

[STLCards2]

I am probably the biggest Tom Glavine fan on the entire website, have done extensive research on every aspect of his entire career, could tell you almost exactly how many runs he gave up in regards to each run prevention "skill", have defended him in some of the lengthiest debates on the HOF forumn in recent hostory - but would no way consider him a top 20 pitcher.

[Captain Cold Nose]

I am probably the biggest Tom Glavine fan on the entire website, have done extensive research on every aspect of his entire career, could tell you almost exactly how many runs he gave up in regards to each run prevention "skill", have defended him in some of the lengthiest debates on the HOF forumn in recent hostory - but would no way consider him a top 20 pitcher.

But the poll includes 40 or so names. If you're voting amongst the top 40 pitchers in history, you'd want him on that poll.

Ah, wait. I see he has received some votes. Yeah, hard-pressed to rank him top 20 unless you really give a lot of credit to this era as well as dimissing earlier eras.

[jjpm74]

jjpm,
How small will the field be when you go to "vote for one"? Will you subdivide all the way to one-on-one, mano-a-mano, head-to-head?


Except for the very end of the ranking, there will never be less than 11 people to choose from in a round and can be as many as 30 in a given round.

[Paul Wendt]

Ah, we will repeatedly rank the group under consideration from the top down until only ten remain, then restore ballot size about 30* by folding in the next tier. (*about 20 the first time)

As I said this AM with less confidence: It doesn't matter whether the first group for rank ordering includes 19 (no Ryan), 20 (Ryan or runoff), or 25 (Ryan and five others). We will proceed to rank order 9, or 10, or 15; fold the ten leftovers into the 22, 21, or 16 "losers" from the 41-man ballot; proceed with a group of 32 or 31 or 26. Then Ryan and Co. will each end up inside or outside the final top twenty with a reasonable majority, not to say consensus. Any of Ryan & Co. who are included with the 19 clear winners of this poll will be among the ten leftovers unless the process generates a great change in opinion. And if that happens Ryan or whoever will richly deserve the higher final ranking.

Pulling no punches: I would take Brown, Clarkson, Rivera, Roberts (7), Palmer (8), Ryan (9) and write it up frankly as a vote for 20 that elected 25.

[jjpm74]

Since we're using a roll down approach in the next phase, I'll stick with the top 20 for tier 1:

Pete Alexander
Steve Carlton
Roger Clemens
Bob Feller
Bob Gibson
Lefty Grove
Carl Hubbell
Randy Johnson
Walter Johnson
Sandy Koufax
Greg Maddux
Pedro Martinez
Christy Matthewson
Kid Nichols
Satchel Paige
Nolan Ryan
Tom Seaver
Warren Spahn
Smoky Joe Williams
Cy Young

This does not necessarily mean that this group are the 20 best pitchers. More likely than not, a few will not make the top 20.

The tier 2 rounds will be set up shortly.